Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
International Cooperation toward National Action Plan
for Adaptation
1. Framework of Adaptation Planning2. Vulnerability Assessment for the Asia and
Pacific Region3. Conclusions
Nobuo Mimura Center for Water Environment Studies
Ibaraki University, Japan
Conditions for Adaptation Planning• Need to know the range and degree of the potential impacts,
and vulnerable sectors and areas(hot spots)
• Need to know what are needed to increase preparedness against the impacts
• Need to know strategy and tactics for adaptation
• The adaptation plan should be incorporated in the mainstream policies such as disaster prevention, environmental management, agriculture, forestry, and fishery, urban infrastructures, and national development plan.
• Adaptation is a part of sustainable development plan in each country
• Adaptation should meet the social acceptance. Therefore, need to raise people’s awareness on the vulnerability
Framework of Adaptation Planning1. Vulnerability Assessment
- Past works including IPCC TAR is an important contribution - So much information, mainly in a qualitative manner- Insufficient to use as a basis for the adaptation planning
2. Needs Assessment- Need to know what are needed for the vulnerable sectors
and areas
3. Adaptation Assessment- Strategies and measures of adaptation
4. National Action Plan for Adaptation
• Need more studies to prepare the adaptation plan, and capacity building for these.
Impacts of Global Warming
Water Cycle/Resources
Agriculture/Food Supply
Extreme Events
Urban/Energy/Industry
Climate Change
Ecosystem
Coastal Zone/Ocean
Insurance/Finance
Impacts on the Asia and Pacific Region
Assessment Method
Sea Level Scenarios1.Present HWL
2.Present HWL+ Maximum Storm Surge (past 40 yrs)
3.HWL in 2100 (1m SLR)
4.HWL in 2100 + Maximum Storm Surge (past 40 yrs)
Primary ImpactsInundated Areas, and Flooded Areas by Storm surge
Secondary ImpactsPopulation, Natural Systems, and Infrastructures
Sea Level Scenarios
Future Mean Sea Level
Present Mean Sea Level
HWL
Maximum Sea Level
Increase by SS
Design Water Level
DWL = SLR + HWL by Tide + Storm Surge
DWL
SLR(1m)
HWL by Tide
Global Database
Nation1996World BankLong-term Prediction
Future population
5’1994CIESEN (US)Gridded pop. of the World
Population
points on tracks
1842~1989
US NOAAWorld-wide Tropical Data Set
Cyclones
points1999Hydrographic Dep. Japan
Tide TablesTide
4.8’1982Global GRASS DataNations World Political Bound.
Boundary
5’1988Nat. Geographic Data Center (US)
ETOPO5Water Depth
0.5’1993EROS Data Center (US)
GTOPO30Topography
Global average
1992IPCC SARIPCC estimationSLR
Create a data set with a uniform 1’ grid
Topography of Target Area Height(GTOPO30,[m])
Depth(ETOPO5,[m])
----------
02050
100200500
1000200050007833
-270
2050
100200500
100020005000
----------
-9000-8000-7000-6000-5000-4000-3000-2000-1000
0
-10376-9000-8000-7000-6000-5000-4000-3000-2000-1000
60°
90°
90°
30°
60°
0°
30°
30°60°
180° 165°120° 150°
NORTH
SOUTH
EAST WEST
Land:65×106km2
SLR Scenario
1.0 m
Distribution of Tidal Amplitude - East Asia
------
1.02.03.04.05.0
5.28
01.02.03.04.05.0
120°EAST
30°NORTH Ariake Inland Sea 2.44m
Western Korea 4.08m
Amplitude(m)
Estimated Typhoon Parameters(1949~1988)
Lowest Center Pressure Maximum Wind Velocity
Lowest Cent. Press. [hPa]---------
860880900920940960980
1000
860880900920940960980
10001013
Maximum Wind Vel. [m/s]------
2030405060
172030405060
Characteristics of Typhoons(1949~1988)
Cumulative Effect of Typhoon
Average Wind Vel.(m/min)
Retention Time(min/typhoon)
Frequency(number/yr)× ×∑
Frequency [num./yr]-------
1.02.03.04.05.06.0
1.02.03.04.05.06.06.8
Retention Time [day]-------
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.0
1.02.03.04.05.06.0
Average Vel. [m/s]--------
0.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.035.0
5.010.015.020.025.030.035.038.8
Severity of Typhoon Effect(1949~1988)- Cumulative Effect
SeverityRank1
Rank2
Rank3
Rank4
Rank5
Rank6
Rank7
Rank8
Rank9
Maximum Storm Surge(Past 40 years)
Strom Surge([m])---------
1.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.0
8.68
01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.0
Hangchou (杭州)Bay 7.1mHong Kong~Reichou 8.6m
Inundated and Flooded Areas- East Asia
<Inundation> <Flooding by Storm Surge >
Inundated by HWL Flooded by HWL + SSInundated by HWL+1m SLR Flooded by HWL + SS
+ 1mSLR
Inundated and Flooded Areas- Southeast and South Asia
<Inundation> <Flooding by Storm Surge>
Equator
Inundated by HWL Flooded by HWL + SSInundated by HWL+1m SLR Flooded by HWL + SS
+ 1mSLR
Inundated and Flooded Areas- Kalimantan, New Guinea, North Australia
<Inundation> <Flooding by Storm Surge>
Equator
Inundated by HWL Flooded by HWL + SSInundated by HWL+1m SLR Flooded by HWL + SS
+ 1mSLR
Estimate of Future Population
Rate of Population Growth(country-based, 2100/1994)
Population Distribution in 1994×
Affected Areas and Pupolation
Inundated and Flooded Areas Affected Population
0
20
40
60
80
100
水没
・氾
濫面
積[万
km2
]
HWL HWL+SS HWL HWL+SS
0.48%
1.32%
0.95%0.94%
0
1
2
3
4
5
影響
人口
[億人
]HWL HWL+SS HWL HWL+SS
1.21%
5.33% 5.12%
11.68%
Present(No SLR)
2100(1mSLR)
Present(No SLR)
2100(1mSLR)
Distribution of Roads
Roads
SLR+HWL
SLR+HWL+SSRoad
FloodingInundation
7.4%38.8%57.6%
26.3%43.6%57.6%
Bangladesh
SingaporeBrunei
Distribution of Railways
Railways1.3%50.0%100%
Inundation
22.4%62.5%100%
Flooding
Bangladesh
SingaporeBrunei
SLR+HWL
SLR+HWL+SSRailway
Distribution of Utilities
Utilities
SLR+HWL
SLR+HWL+SS
Utility
6.2%4.8%Malaysia8.7%
57.3%5.9%
Inundation
62.5%
62.5%12.2%
Flooding
Bangladesh
VietnamBrunei
Mangrove42.8%74.3%
87.0%Inundation
68.1%75.4%
87.7%Flooding
Bangladesh
Vietnam
Indonesia
SLR+HWL
SLR+HWL+SS
Mangrove
Response Strategies
1.Protection
2.Accommodation
3.Planned Retreat
Some Thresholds of Impacts
Negative effects for 2-3 ℃increase
NationsEconomy
Increase of mortality rate for 33-35 ℃ of daily high temp.
Elder peopleHuman Health
Erosion of 57% beaches by 30cm SLR100 billion US$ of costs for 1mSLR
Sandy beach
Port and coastal structure
Coastal Zone
Bleaching by 1-2 ℃ increase in water temperature
CoralMarine Ecosystem
Heat effect by over 35 ℃during flowering
RiceAgriculture
Apparent effects for 2℃increaseCannot survive for 45cm SLR
Plants in high mountainMangrove
Ecosystem
Conclusions
We need to strengthen international cooperation in the following fields to promote developing National Action Plan for Adaptation.
1. Vulnerability Assessment2. Needs Assessment3. Adaptation Assessment4. National Action Plan for Adaptation
Collaborative Studies in the South Pacific
1991-1997 Assessment of Impact and VulnerabilityCoastal Zone Management
- Tonga, Fiji, Samoa, Tuvalu
#A New Stage from VA to Response
1999-2000 Needs Assessment to countries and stakeholders
2001-2002 Editing the Resource Book as a guidingmaterial for NAPS