International Development in hard times:

Reflecting on the major multilateral replenishments of 2013

Richard Manning, former Chair, OECD/DAC

Does Aid Matter to Middle-Income Countries?

Does Aid Matter to Low-Income Countries?

OECD Projections before the Replenishments (constant US$ million 2012)

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

2012 2013 2013 2015 2016

Bilateral CPA, gross

Mulyilateral CPA, gross

The significance of the three Replenishments: IDA, GF and AfDF account for 60% of all multilateral CPA,

excluding EU Institutions

AfDF

Global Fund

IDA

Other, excluding EU

CPA from the three Institutions, 2003-2012 (constant US$ million)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

AfDF

Global Fund

IDA

The development budget 2014-2020

Commitments €bn

MFF 2014-

2020

MFF 2007-

2013

MFF 2007-2013

Share of the

total budget

MFF 2014-2020

Share of the

total budget

1. Smart & inclusive growth 450.76 446.31 4.45 1.0% 44.9% 47.0%

2. Natural resources 373.18 420.68 -47.50 -11.3% 42.4% 38.9%

3. Security and Citizenship 15.69 12.37 3.32 26.8% 1.2% 1.6%

4. Global Europe 58.70 56.82 1.89 3.3% 5.7% 6.1%

5. Administration 61.63 57.08 4.55 8.0% 5.7% 6.4%

Commitments €bn EDF 11 EDF 10

European Development Fund 26.98 26.93 0.05 0.2%

Growth 2007-2013

v. 2014-2020

Growth EDF 10 v.

EDF 11

Comparison of present and proposed external actions instruments

€ billion in 2011 prices

Donor Contributions to the Three Major Replenishments of 2013 (Million SDRs for AfDF and IDA; Million US$ for GF)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

AfDF (AfDF Total) Global Fund IDA (IDA Total)

2007

2010

2013

Donor Contributions to AfDF (Million SDRs)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Europe US/CAN JPN/KOR NON-DAC

ADF11

ADF12

ADF13

Top Ten Donors to AfDF

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

UK Germany US France Japan Sweden Canada Italy Norway Netherlands Other

ADF11

ADF12

ADF13

Donor Contributions to Global Fund (million US$)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Europe

US/CAN/ANZ

JPN/KOR

NON-DAC

PRIVATE

Top Ten Donors to the Global Fund

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

GF2

GF3

GF4

Donor Contributions to IDA (Million SDRs)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Europe US/CAN/ANZ JPN/KOR NON-DAC

IDA 15

IDA 16

IDA17

Top Ten Donors to IDA

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

UK US Japan Germany France Canada Italy Spain Netherlands Sweden All Other

IDA15

IDA16

Voting Shares in AfDB, 31 December 2006 and 2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

TOTAL, Europe TOTAL, US/CAN/ANZ TOTAL, JPN/KOR TOTAL, NON-DAC

2006

2012

Voting Shares in IBRD, 30 June 2007 and 2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Europe US/CAN/ANZ JPN NON-DAC (China)

2007

2013

GNI, US$ billion, PPP, current prices, 2006 and 2013

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

EU CAN/US/ANZ KOR/JPN BRICS

2006

2012

The Demand Side: a Shrinking Clientele for IDA

The Significance of non-Core Funding

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

World Bank Group core

World Bank Group non-

core

UN Funds and Progs

core

UN Funds and Progs non-core

Other UN core

Other UN non-core

Regional DBs core

Regional DBs non-core

Other multilaterals

core

Other multilaterals

non-core

2007

2009

2010

2011

2012

Summary of Conclusions

• The multilateral ‘system’ is not about to collapse: indeed some parts are increasingly self-financing

• There are however signs of strain:

– Little real growth

– Continued dependence on traditional donors

– Shrinking client base

• More work needed on adapting governance to changing realities

• Balance needed between

– performance orientation and need/fragility

– issue-based and country-based funds

– core resources and trust funds

• Multilateralism matters

THANK YOU!