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Rise of Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi Assembly

Election, 2015: Spatial Analysis of Party

Performance

Dr. Anupama Verma

Department of Geography, Shaheed Bhagat Singh (Eve) College,

University of Delhi, New Delhi.

ABSTRACT : The Aam Aadmi Party, born from the anti-corruption movement that began in

2011, is generating a new kind of hope and energy in the country especially among the youth

which never witnessed before. Arvind Kejriwal formed the political party in November 2012

after breaking away from Anna Hazare. Nobody expected the Aam Aadmi Party to capture the

imagination of the people of Delhi so quickly and become a big regional party in Delhi. In

2013 assembly election first time newly formed Aam Aadmi Party gave tough fight to

established Bharatiya Janata Party and Indian National Congress. In a short time span Aam

Aadmi Party came second in his first election held in 2013 and won 28 seats out of the total 70

seats. This study describes that the changing scenario of party competition and voter’s

behaviour in Delhi is a very interesting problem area for study. The present study also reveals

that how voter turnout largely influenced by the socio – economic conditions of electorates. In

2015 assembly election Aam Aadmi Party won 67 seats out of 70 and came out as a ruling

party. Here attempt have been made to see the rise of Aam Aadmi Party and its performance in

different constituencies of Delhi. For the analysis of voting data important indicators have

been taken like to show the spatial distribution of seats won by various contesting parties’

areal structural and integrated approach were used. This gives a quick visual idea of the areal

pattern of party stronghold. This study is based on secondary sources of data.

Keywords: : Constituencies, Electorates, Party Competition, Voters Behaviour, Voter turnout.

_________________________________________________________________________________________

I. Introduction:

This study is based on Delhi’s Assembly election 2015 and emergence of Aam Aadmi

Party in Delhi’s politics. Victory of Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi Assembly is certainly

praiseworthy and surprising, particularly on the background that the party was born only few

year ago. Aam Aadmi Party has certainly sparked the imagination of a large section of

population. Delhi Assembly election 2015 showed rapid increase in voter turnout it was

67.47% which is almost 1.61% higher than 2013 assembly election. This is apparent from the

increase in voter’s turnout that electorates casted their votes to choose right party for

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governance. Participation in election process is important for voters to find solutions against

bad governance rather than only raising issues. Governance in Delhi is complex because of its

multi cultural identity with heterogeneity in socio-economic conditions of electorates. Only

seven Chief Ministers have ruled over Delhi in its political history. Delhi Legislative Assembly

was first constituted on 7 March 1952 under the Government of Part C States Act, 1951. The

Assembly has 48 members and Chaudhary Brahm Prakash, became the first Chief Minister of

Delhi.1 In 1993 Legislative Assembly election Bhartiya Janta Party won in Delhi after that

from 1998 to till 2013 Sheila Dikshit’s 15-year reign as chief minister began, the longest by

a Indian woman2. For political parties it is easy to attract voters by promising cheap water and

electricity but far more difficult to deliver on those promises without making governance

suffer. While voters in Delhi have certainly voted against miss- governance in recently held

elections’ in 2013 and 2015, they might have been swayed by APP’s promises. In 2013

Assembly Election in Delhi the Bharatiya Janata Party won the election but failed to secure

majority of seats to form a government. Aam Aadmi Party, in its first election got second

position but it also failed to secure majority of seats; this resulted in a hung assembly. After the

BJP refused to form a government in the hung assembly, the Aam Aadmi Party's Arvind

Kejriwal became chief minister with "not conditional" support from the Indian National

Congress. After almost one year of resignation of Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, in assembly

elections 2015, the AAP cavalry came bludgeoning and registered a historic win in the

electoral history of Delhi. The BJP was at the receiving end this time. The 49 day rule of AAP

and as a chief minister Arvind Kejriwal proved more than enough to enable them to win

comfortably against an ever strengthening Bhartiya Janta Party and Indian National Congress.

Aam Aadmi Party secured absolute majority in 2015 assembly election, winning 67 of the 70

seats and came out as a big ruling party.

II. Objectives of the Study:

The basic aims and objectives of the study are: To trace out the changing patterns of voting behaviour in Delhi.

To understand the party performance in one constituency as compared to other

1 http://delhiassembly.nic.in/history_assembly

2 "Sheila Dikshit is India's longest serving woman CM". IBN Live, 9 December 2008. Retrieved 8 March 2011 from

http:// ibnlive.in.com /news

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constituency.

To understand the causes of massive win of Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi.

III.Methodology:

The present study is basically based on secondary sources of data. The secondary data

have been taken from: (i) The electoral data for (1993 and 1998) collected from the reports on

the Assembly Election published by Election Commission of India, New Delhi (ii) Election in

India Major Events & New Initiatives (1996-2000) published by Election Commission of

India, Nirvachan Sadan, Ashoka Road, New Delhi (iii) Electoral Maps and voting data , Chief

Electoral Office , Kashmiri Gate, Delhi (iv) Findings from surveys conducted by the Centre for

the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in Delhi. The areal structural approach is used to

show the spatial patterns of voting like spatial distribution of seats won by various contesting

parties. Beside this integrated approach applied to represent the spatial structure of voting

behavior as revealed in election results and to show the swings in percentage of vote share of

political parties in different elections. This is based on highly generalized voting data.

IV.Study Area:

Delhi, the national capital of India, is situated on the west bank of the river Yamuna.

Delhi shares its borders with Uttar Pradesh to the east and with Haryana to the north, west and

south. It is a metropolitan region and is spread over 1,484 sq km. Constitutionally Delhi is a

union territory3. Seventy Assembly constituencies of Delhi were selected for the purpose of

study, out of which 12 are reserved constituencies. These came into existence after the

delimitation of constituencies in 2008. Under the general category, Vikas Puri assembly

constituency has the largest number of electors (325246), whereas Delhi Cantt has the least

(132233). Under the SC category, the Bawana constituency holds the largest electorate, with a

total of 303108 voters, whereas the Ambedkar Nagar constituency has the smallest number

(139676). Nerela is the largest constituency in terms of area (143.42 sq km) with 241032 total

electors. The number of electors involved has increased rapidly. There were nearly 744668

electors in 1952 the first assembly election in Delhi, their number went up to over 83, 64,733

electors in 1998 assembly election. In 2008 assembly election the total number of electors went

up to 10726573 and the total polling percentage was 57.58%. While in 2013 assembly election

total 65.86% votes were polled and the 11936360 number of electors were recorded. A record

3 www.elections.in/delhi

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67.47% turnout was registered and around 8942372 valid votes were polled in 2015 assembly

election in Delhi.

Table 1: Delhi Assembly Constituencies 2008-15

1.Narela 11.Nangloij

at

21.Matia

Mahal

31.Vikasp

uri 41.Jangpura 51.Kalkaji

61.Gandhi

Nagar

2.Burari 12.Mangol

puri

(SC)

22.Ballima

ran

32.Uttam

Nagar

42.Kasturba

Nagar

52.Tughlaqa

bad

62.Shahdar

a

3.Timarpur 13.Rohini 23.Karol

Bagh

(SC)

33.Dwark

a

43.Malviya

Nagar 53.Badarpur

63.Seema

puri

(SC)

4.Adarsh

Nagar

14.Shalimar

- bagh

24.Patel

Nagar

(SC)

34.Matial

a

44.R.K.Pura

m 54.Okhla

64.Rohtash

Nagar

5.Badli 15.Shakurb

asti

25.Moti

Nagar

35.Najafg

arh 45.Mehrauli

55.Trilokpu

ri

(SC)

65.Seelam

pur

6. Rithala 16.Tri

Nagar

26.Madip

ur

(SC)

36.Bijwas

an 46.chhatarpur

56.Kondli

(SC) 66.Ghonda

7.Bawana

(SC)

17.Wazirpu

r

27.Rajori

Garden 37.Palam 47.Deoli(sc)

57.Patpargan

j

67.Babarp

ur

8.Mundka 18.Model

Town

28.Hari

Nagar

38.Delhi

Cantt. 48.Ambedka

r Nagar(sc)

58.Laxmi

Nagar

68.Gokulp

ur

(SC)

9.Kirari 19.Sadar

Bazar

29.Tilak

Nagar

39.Rajein

der

Nagar

49.Sangam

Vihar

59.Vishwas

Nagar

69.Mustuf

abad

10.Sultanp

ur

Majra

(SC)

20.Chandni

Chowk

30.Janakpu

ri

40.New

Delhi

50.Greater

Kailash

60.Krishna

Nagar

70.Karawa

l Nagar

Source: Chief Electoral Office, New Delhi.

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Source: General Election 2013 and 2015 to Delhi Legislative Assembly, Report and Statistical details, Chief

Electoral Officer, Kashmiri Gate, Delhi.

V. Result and Discussion : A] Party performance: Delhi Assembly Election 2015

The present study describes the nature of party competition; Indian politics commonly

has been modeled as a one party dominant or a multi-party system. After the 1993 election

in 1998, 2003 and 2008 Vidhan Sabha election Indian National Congress emerged as a big

Map 1.1

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ruling party. Table 2 shows that in 2013 assembly election Aam Aadmi Party gave very tough

fight to Bhartiya Janta Party and Congress and emerged as a second largest party while

Bhartiya Janta Party emerged as a largest party but failed to secure majority of votes to form

government. After that again in 2015 assembly election Aam Adami Party secured majority of

votes and this time they got more than enough seats to form government. In 2013 assembly

election around 880 contestants in fray and in 2015 assembly election total 673 contestants in

fray, this shows very high competition. Moreover , it is clear that the larger the number of

candidates the greater is the competitiveness . Bhartiya Janta Party won 31 seats with

highest 33.07% vote share and Aam Aadmi Party secured 29.49% votes. Beside that the Indian

National Congress had won 8 out of 70 contested seats and received a vote share of 24.55% in

2013 assembly election. While in 2015, the political existence and scenario has completely

changed. Indian National Congress failed to win even a single seat in Delhi assembly poll. The

Indian National Congress has got only 9.65% vote share with over 8.4 lakh votes. That is

almost a loss of around 15% vote share. Table 2 represents that in Delhi assembly elections

especially 2015, the Aam Aadmi Party proved its stronghold position almost all over Delhi the

Bhartiya Janta Party was at the receiving end this time. Aam Aadmi Party won 67 seats out of

70 and defeated Bhartiya Janta Party and Indian National Congress with a big margin of votes.

Table: 2 Party Wise Results (2013-15)

Source: Delhi Legislative Assembly, Report and Statistical Details 2015 Chief Electoral Officer, Delhi

Party Names Seats Won Vote Share %

Years

2013 2015 2013 2015

AAP 28 67 29.49 54.34

BJP 31 03 33.07 32.19

INC 08 00 24.55 9.65

IND 01 00 2.93 0.53

Janta Dal(United) 01 00 0.87 0.02

Shiromani Akali Dal 01 00 0.91 0.50

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Figure: 1.1

Source: Delhi Legislative Assembly, Report and Statistical Details 2015 Chief Electoral

Officer, Delhi

B] Spatial Analysis of Party performance in different constituencies

Aam Aadmi Party on Delhi's electoral scene upset the traditional support base of various

political parties across various castes and communities. The usual pattern of upper castes

voting mainly for the BJP and the OBCs and Dalits voting largely for the Congress stood

disrupted. Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal wins from New Delhi constituency with 64.14%

votes and defeated BJP candidate Nupur Sharma from a big margin of around 35.41% votes. In

Some constituencies AAP won election with above 60% of votes like: Burari, Kirari, Sultanpur

Majra(sc), Vikaspuri, New Delhi, Deoli(sc), Ambedkar Nagar(sc), Sangam Vihar, Tughlkabad,

Okhla and Seemapuri(sc). It also reflects that APP has stronghold position in various reserved

constituencies. Spatial distribution of turnout reveals that participation was notably higher in

poorer seats, in the northeast and in the eastern constituencies. Most of the seats that recorded

the highest voter turnout are reserved seats, like Seemapuri and Gokalpur in the East, Karol

Bagh and Patel Nagar in the Centre-West, or Sangam Vihar, Deoli and Ambedkar Nagar in

South Delhi. A brief look at the geography of the results represents that AAP’s vote share

distribution is remarkably consistent. On 54 seats AAP won election within the category of

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moderate to high (45-60%) vote share covering all parts of Delhi, including some of the richest

and poorest constituencies. This time INC completely failed in Delhi to win the voters trust

towards their policies. It is remarkable to observe that almost all over Delhi INC reported on

third position in some constituencies INC secured lowest votes between (2-3%) like- Rithala,

Narela and Rohini (north west Delhi district) and Burari (north Delhi district). In geographical

terms it reveals that, the INC drastically reduced his vote share in various constituencies of

Delhi. While it is also interesting that in some constituencies INC reported on second position

where it secured 25-30% votes such as- Mangolpuri (west Delhi), Badli (north west Delhi),

Matia Mahal (central Delhi) and Mustafabad (north east Delhi) . Map 1.2 represents that AAP

has stronghold position all over Delhi and BJP won only three seats in Delhi these were

Rohini(49.83%), Mustafabad(35.33%) and Vishwas Nagar(45.16%). BJP candidate Vijender

Gupta won the Rohini seat, defeated AAP's C.L. Gupta with a margin of 5,367 votes. The 60-

year-old BJP leader Jagdish Pradhan reclaimed the Mustafabad seat ,with a margin of 6,031

votes . He defeated Congress’ Hasan Ahmad who had won this seat in 2013 assembly election.

Beside this the BJP leader also retained the Vishwas Nagar seat in east Delhi, which he had

won with a margin of 10,158 votes and defeated AAP’s candidate Dr. Atul Gupta from a high

margin. Aam Aadmi Party proved his stronghold position in slum areas of different

constituencies, For example- Moti Nagar with (25,021 jhuggis), Wazirpur(13,736jhuggis),

R.K.Puram(10,894 jhuggis) and Tughlakabad (23,495 jhuggis) where Bhartiya Janta Party won

in 2013 assembly election4. Arvind Kejriwal’s 49 day tenure changed the voter’s mind he

promised 20,000 litre of water free for every household and provide rebate in electricity tariff

up to 400 units of consumption of electricity. The positive results came for Aam Aadmi Party

in 2015 assembly election when Aam Aadmi Party captured all these constituencies. Accept

these constituencies where slums voters came out as a game changer, Seemapuri is yet another

slum area, residents here are mostly labour class and on the other hand New Delhi, Kusumpur

Pahari slum area is home of mostly to poor migrants from UP, Bihar, Orissa and Assam.

Besides that Sangam Vihar and Kathputli slum colony near shadipur Depot, Patel Nagar in all

4 http://www.indiaspend.com/cover-story/slums-workers-hold-key-to-winning-delhi.

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these constituencies Aam Aadmi Party received above 55 to 60% votes in 2015 assembly

election in Delhi.

Source: Chief Electoral Office, Delhi.

Map 1.2

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Table 3: CSDS Survey Finds AAP’s Vote Share Was Highest

Among the Youth, Muslim and Dalits.

Source: Lokniti CSDS, Delhi

In different age groups, AAP’s vote share was significantly higher than that of BJP. It is

clear from the above table that APP won the support of all segments of society. While this is

also true that, the party’s support base comprised mainly younger and poorer voters, according

to a post-poll survey by Lokniti at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. The

survey was conducted after voting ended, among 2,060 voters in 120 locations across 24

Assembly constituencies of Delhi. Table 3 shows that AAP’s vote share was the highest among

young voters (aged 18 to 22) it was recorded above 60%. The party’s vote share then gradually

declines by age, falling to 45% among voters of (above 56) age group (see figure 1.2). AAP’s

vote share was highest among muslims and dalits voters. In the case of muslims in particular,

the growth in the AAP’s popularity has been remarkable, going from 12 per cent in 2013 to 77

per cent in 2015 (see figure1.4). In the category of dalit vote share AAP vote share was highest

68% in 2015 as compared to other political parties (see figure 1.3).

Performance of political parties Assembly Election 2015 in Delhi

Parties Vote –share in percentage among different age group

18-22years 23-35years 36-45years 46-55years 56+

INC 10 8 7 11 16

BJP 26 32 34 34 36

AAP 63 57 54 50 45

Others 1 3 5 5 3

Muslim vote- share in % Dalit vote-share in %

INC 20 06

BJP 02 20

AAP 77 68

others 01 06

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Figure: 1.2

Figure: 1.3 Figure: 1.4

Source (Fig.1.2, 1.3 &1.4): Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi.

C] Massive Win of Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi

The victory of AAP is a fairy tale comeback for a party and a leader after the 49-day

government in Delhi. After the 2014 Lok Sabha election Kejriwal started with doing the

unthinkable. He tendered an apology to the Delhi voters claiming that he had made a mistake

and not any crime by resigning in 49 days. Aam Aadmi Party presents his work-report among

the voters and explained how corruption had come down during his brief rule. The strategy

worked with voters returning AAP with a greater mandate. In 2015 assembly election voters

decided to give him one more chance. Aam Aadmi Party’s door-to-door campaign, promising

alternative forms of governance driven by innovative ideas such as “constituency

based manifestos” and other methods were responsible for their successes in various

constituencies. Some important facts responsible for Aam Aadmi Party’s overwhelming

Victory in Delhi are:

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1) Kejriwal's apology and reinvention and fighting elections on his name.

2) APP Started campaigning 3-4 months back and gave importance to local and

constituency specific issues.

3) Party’s stand on Anti-corruption bill along with the promise of slashing of power and

water tariffs etc.

4) Collapse of Congress, voters wants change.

5) Dalits, Muslims and the poor moved to AAP, giving the party a major boost.

6) BJP’s negative campaign towards APP.

7) Overreliance on Narendra Modi. The Narendra Modi card failed badly in Delhi.

8) Kiran Bedi's projection as CM was also failed against Arvind Kejriwal.

9) Kejriwal was called "bhagoda" (runaway) by his rivals but he never shied away from

talking on the opposition.

VII.Conclusion : Indian National Congress which ruled Delhi for three straight terms before it was

defeated by the debutant AAP in 2013 is not winning a single seat. In 2013 AAP President

Arvind Kejriwal defeated Sheila Dikshit in New Delhi constituency with a huge margin of

over 25,000 votes. On the other hand BJP also fails to capitalise the Modi Wave and fails to

emerge as a single largest party in 2015 assembly election. The above study also reveals

various important facts such as- (i) 2015 assembly election shows rapid increase in voter

turnout it went up to 67.47% as compared to 2013 and 2008 assembly elections. (ii) It was

found that reserved constituencies also showed high and very high electoral participation. (iii)

In 2015 assembly election AAP emerged as big party that represents all sections of the society

and gets support from all sections. It is also clear from the above study that party achieved success to win voters faith and touched various common issues of development related with the life of a ‘common man’. In brief Aam Aadmi Party came out as a game-changer and proved the point that clean politics and affordable politics is possible.

References :

[1] Johnston, R.(2002),“Manipulating Maps and Winning Elections: Measuring the Impact

of Malapportionmentand Gerrymandoring”, Political Geography, Vol. 21,No. 1.

[2] Taylor, P.J. and Johnston,R.J.(1979), “Geography of Elections”, London: Croom Helm,

[3] Rama Devi, V.S. and Mendiratta S.K.(2000), “How India votes Elections laws Practice

and procedure”, New Delhi: Butter Worths.

[4] Dwivedi, R.L. (1997), “Fundamentals of Political Geography”, Allahabad. Chaitanaya

Publishing House.

[5] Sinha, M. and Ray, A.(1995) “Political Geography”, Allahabad: Horizon Publishers.

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www.ijirssc.in Page 251

[6] “The Aam Aadmi Party's win in Delhi: Dissecting it through Geographical Information

Systems”, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 48, Issue No. 52, 28 Dec, 2013, from

www.epw.in/journal

[7] “Kejriwal promises to make Delhi graft-free in 5 years”, The Hindu, New Delhi,

February 14, 2015 from http://www.thehindu.com

[8] “10 reasons behind Aam Aadmi Party's massive win in Delhi”, News18, February 10,

2015 from http://www.news18.com/news/india/

[9] http://www.lokniti.org/assembly-elections-pre-poll-study

[10] www.indianexpress.com

[11] www.csds.in/lokniti

Abbreviations

INC- Indian National Congress

BJP- Bhartiya Janta Party

AAP- Aam Aadmi Party

J D(U)- Janta Dal (United)

CSDS- Centre for the Study of Developing Societies.

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Foot note 1. http://delhiassembly.nic.in/history_assembly 2 "Sheila Dikshit is India's longest serving woman CM". IBN Live, 9 December 2008. Retrieved 8

March 2011 from http:// ibnlive.in.com /news

3.www.elections.in/delhi

4 http://www.indiaspend.com/cover-story/slums-workers-hold-key-to-winning-delhi