International Seminar at Ottawa, Canada Seminar on Rapid Estimates

Session 6 – Comments on Dissemination and communication policy for rapid estimates

Eduardo Pereira Nunes - President of Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)

Rapid Estimates of US GDP - dissemination

Rapid Estimates of US GDP are released 30 days after the end of the Quarter.

Advanced Calendar of GDP Release. Policy of dissemination data, methodology and Revision cycles of GDP.

Last month of Quarter is evaluated by some assumptions. Rapid Quarter GDP calculated through two months of statistical data and

one month of estimates.

First revision of Rapid estimate of Quarterly GDP change sources of data.

For every Quarter, US have three Releases of GDP.

Policy of regular communication with users and press. Transparence way of dissemination.

Rapid Estimates of US GDP

Question for David on US Rapid estimates of GDP:

During the last Quarters, the differences between first and last estimates were well received by users, press and government?

In some countries it is difficult to deal with frequent revisions.

Users, press and politics may disagree with different numbers from the NSO.

Issue: Accuracy, timely and transparence of methods.

Rapid Estimates of Canada GDP - communication

Canada Paper shows recent Canadian experience of assistance policy makers and business people to understand current financial and economic crisis.

Remark: Statistics Canada improved quality of Releases on economy without developing new information sources.

Communication on evolution of financial crisis through Statistics Canada on Financial Flows Accounts, National Balance Sheet Accounts, Income and Expenditure Accounts and International Investment Position.

This communication on Recent Economic Events through the Lens of the Canadian SNA expanded using of available data without creating new data.

This successful experience requires continuous training of technical team to show the important events related to the economic changes, like the 2008 turning point of cycle.

Rapid Estimates of Canada GDPDuring the period of crisis, Releases of Statistics Canada show

evolution of monthly and quarterly indicators.

Releases highlight what is genuinely important for users to understand better Canadian economy and policy makers take decision.

Paul Cheung question on:What are the NSO doing to give flash information oh this financial

crisis?Statistics Canada experience of communication is a very good way to

respond to this question.

However, by the users’ point of view, in times of economic crisis, those economic indicators could be released earlier.

But, sometimes, release of rapid estimates has a great risk for the NSO credibility.

Rapid Estimates of Canada GDPTrade-off between timeliness and revisions.

Each country has different capacity to deal with political consequences of large revisions.

Issue: Accuracy, timely and transparence of methods. For StatCan, NSO have to consider how, when and what kind of rapid

estimates they can publish to support decision and policy-makers, without risks of large revisions later.

This decision is very difficult to be achieved in times of economic crisis.In each period we could make different choices and the users will not

believe in your transparence and independence.

Rapid Estimates of GDP

Question for Canada on Rapid estimates:

During the last Quarters, have you published the same rapid estimates?

Had you made any large revision?

Had you been any problem with users, press and government after rapid estimates revisions?

Question for US on Rapid estimates:

During the last Quarters, the differences between first and last estimates were also well received by users, press and government?