International Seminar on Early Warning and Business Cycle

Indicators

Session 4The role of composite indicators in tracking

the Business CycleGeert Bruinooge

Statistics Netherlands

Discussion 1

• Is there a need for two types of composite indicators (leading and coincidental)?

• Or can we use just one composite indicator ( a combination of leading, coincidental and lagging components)?

Discussion 2

• Do we need a fixed set of criteria for the selection of components for all countries to enhance co-ordination and comparability?

Discussion 3

• Is it possible to define a minimum set of components to be included in all Leading Indicators and Coincidental Indicators?

• Or are the economic situations so divers that no minimum set can be defined?

Discussion 4

• Is an explicit statistical and econometric model not preferable above the use of individual models?

• Weighing: a model that takes into account the contributions of each component might be better.

Discussion 5

• NSI’s should concentrate on monthly indicators which actually measure general economic activity instead of on CLI’s.

Discussion 6

• How to improve the early detection of turning points?

• How to measure the robustness of growth?

• Dow we need to develop International Guidelines on Composite Indicators of the economic cycle?