International Telecommunication Consultant CJBMI & ass 8th ......Growth in Mobile Connections 4.6 Billion 2009 20152011 6 Billion 7.8 Billion C de Jacquelot ([email protected]) International

C de Jacquelot ([email protected])

International Telecommunication Consultant

CJBMI & ass

1

C de JacquelotICT political [email protected]

8th International Workshop on Internet Charging and QoSTechnologiesICQT'13

Zurich October 14th 2013

E-Africa by the horizon 2020Ultra Wide Band in Africa ? A mainly political choice



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summary1. An economical transformation for governments which have to move to

ICT, cash cow of the state budget driven by an E-economy.

2. Wide band? What for? How do consumers use it?

3. How to serve wide band on the short and middle term (2016) and ultra wide band by the horizon 2018-2020.

4. Impacts on infrastructures and the regional integration problem.

All the different points are illustrated by lessons based on the Programm for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) and country case studies.



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Voice and Internet… every where in the world ?Growth in Mobile

Connections

4.6Billion

2009 20152011

6Billion

7.8Billion



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4



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High speed Internet : the XXI th century challenge3 main axis with horizons 2015-2030

INSTITUTIONS AND GOVERNEMENT

INITIATIVES

NATIONAL AND REGIONALDIGITAL PROGRAMMES

Involve private sectorwhere it is possible

(profitable) and increase competition

Gov intervention if requiredbased on Competition

Reduce investmentas possible

FTTH

4G-LTE FTTH FOR NETWORK

ACCESS(NO

DUPLICATION)

FO FOR BACKBONE

AND BACKHAULBASED ON

COMPETITION

* Based on international benchmark



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Source: Arthur D. Little, Exane BNP Paribas, Analysys Mason, IDATE

NGA includes wireline technologies providing ultra fast broadband (all FTTx technologies and DOCSIS 3.0)

North America65% 10-30%

Europe

Japan - Korea

35% 5-10%

80% >40%

Homes passed

Homes connected

Legend

World, 2010

North America and Asia-Pacific have taken the lead in new infrastructure deployments

U.S. (2012) :

• 8 M subs

• 22M Home passed

China (2011) :

• 38 M FTTx subs

FTTH Forecast :• 80 M homes passed end 2013

• 100 M homes passed end 2015

?

NGA networks- A challenge for developed countries



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Potential new Digital divideAfrica vs rest of the world

Fixe market under monopoly

2G Mobile 3G

ADSL

Voice VoIp & BB internet

Digital Divide

20112000

?

VoiceXIX th -1996Market voice

over monopoly

Fixe Copper accessNetwork-Unbundling

2G Mobile 3GInternet mobile

Alternative infrastructure

Voice over IP

Competition

BB internet-ADSL FTTH

4G LTE



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8

The new african challenge

e Africa 2020



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The Vision: e-Africa 2020a Digital Africa

An Africa based on Information society and e-economy

Develop E-Government E-Commerce Social Networks & Email Telephony and video calls IPTV

To support: Economic development - GDP growth, jobs Social inclusion - elimination of isolationRegional Integration - trade, decision-making Equal participation on the global stage Improved peace & securityMeeting the Millennium Development Goals



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1. Exploding growth in bandwidth requirements to respond to the demand from customers at: Local Level National level Regional level International level

The Context Impact on BB development on Trafficin developing countries

Exploding growth in bandwidth

New accessinfrastructure

Nationalinfrastructure

Regionalinfrastructure

Internationalinfrastructure

Increase connectivity (Infrastructure)Increase capacity ( Bandwidth)



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Fixed Access infrastructure divideFixe line : North vs Sub sahara countries

Sub Sahara43%

MAU+ Egypt57%

Sub Sahara MAU+ Egypt

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Sub Sahara MAU+ Egypt

Fixe density average North vs Sub sahara (2012)

source ITU-C de Jacquelot 2013

A context which impact the Broadband development model betweendeveloped and developing countries



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Infrastructure and Voice market release Mobile before 2011

2 major issues on voice service prices: Interconnection –Call terminaison

Taxe on international call

Base Station

Base Station

Base StationController

Mobile Switching Centre


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Mobile Switching CentreMobile Switching Centre






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Mobile market in Africa

Mobile market in Africa competition status

Country w ith duopoly

32%

Country w ith 3 ou more59%

Country w ith Monopoly

9%

2G vs 3G Countries in Africa

2G Countries36%

3G Countries64%

3G data services : status of competition

Countries w ith 3 G data monopoly

38%

Countries w ith 3 G data competition

62%

A market in progress



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Africa 2G-3G



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Internet Users in Africa



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Political aspects of ICT development in Africa Political aspects of ICT development in Africa

ICT will become an engine to ICT will become an engine to e e economyeconomy

Has been ICT ICT in a new world

How to success this challenge ?



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International access

Source http://manypossibilities.net/african-undersea-cables/ & http://www.cablemap.info/ October 2013

International bandwidth : from Desert to Tsunami



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International traffics : Africa and Voice VS IP (Libya case)

Ip traffic is growing under customers’ demand and voice traffic becomes residual

Africa International IP bandwith

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mb

ps

source Africabandwidth-Pidastudy-BB study2013

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Mbps

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

International bandwidth IP vs voice (Libya case)

IP Bandwitdth Mbps Voice bandwidth Mbps source ICT Ministry 2013



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Internet growth’s indicator: ASN- World vs Africa

Source Data from RIR websites as of: Sun Oct 06 2013A growth more important than is the rest of the world but still gap exists



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Who is the African consumer ? How is he connected ?

E goverment

?

Economic development

Accès au Savoir

World integration



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A draft of response loaded of lessons…

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tent

s

S1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

TOP 7 of Web average access for some african countries

source http://w w w .alexa.com Oc

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s SwissSouth Korea

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

TOP WEB Worldwide overview: some countries vs World

Swiss Developping countries South Korea World

Africa consumer = European consumer



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What are the generated traffics ? European case

Week EndResidential traffic

In Europe Residential BB traffic is the heavy one

Residential traffic

Migration from B & R traffics to pure

residential traffic



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What are the generated traffics ? South Africa case

Week end

End ofworking hours



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What are the generated traffics ? Nigeria per Submarine cable access

Mainone

Glo1

End ofworking hours

Week end

Two cases very different from European model …



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What are the generated traffics ? North African consumer case

Former allocated Bandwidth

new allocated Bandwidth

Bandwidthoverflow

Bandwidthincrease 33 %Web Video(Youtube,

dailymotion,..)



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Attack of the Mole at Nairobi

What are the generated traffics ? Kenya 2 week ago



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Asymmetry on International bandwidth (Egypt Case)

International IP traffic traffic In and out going (Mbps) Egypt case

Incoming IP traff ic 77%

Outgoing Ip traff ic; 23%

source MICT October 2013

which corresponds to an Asymemetry of demand which have economic impact



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How to connect african consumers?



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450 Gbits (56 %)160 000 000 inhabitants (16 %)

350 Gbits (44 %)850 000 000 inhabitants (84%)

Digital Digital dividedivide NorthNorth--SouthSouth

Donnée décembre 2011



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200 Actors

GLO-1

EASSY

WACS

SEACOMMainOne

ACE

Others

Others

Reach the sub marine cable station to have access to International bandwidth



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International connectivity :Ghana case

Globalcommobile

GlobalcomSub marine cable

Level3

Telia soneraInternational

MainOne CableMillicomTigo



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International connectivity : Ghana IXP ecosystem

MainoneCable

Ghana IXP

Ghana have 37 ASN4 are peering



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International connectivity :Tunisia IXP-ATI

ATITunisia backbone

Interoute

Telecom ItaliaSparkle

Level 3Sat3

Orange Tunisie

Peering



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International connectivity :Tunisia IXP-ATI (2)

Source ATI October 10 2013



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Reduce international bandwidth usage -IXP Africa October 2013

The usage of international bandwidth has an important impact on the end user price… How to reduce this point?

Intra country traffic shall stay in the country IXP Peering

Intra regional traffics shall transit via terrestrial infrastructure as possible Regional infrastructure Regional peering

Implement Cache At IXP node Per operator/ISP

Return of the field < 20-25%



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Bandwidth price vs Bandwidth : Financial approach

Costs of Mbps/month regarding bandwith payload per SM cable

$0

$500

$1 000

$1 500

$2 000

$2 500

$3 000

$3 500

$4 000

$4 500

2,5 Gbits 10 Gbits 50 Gbits 100 Gbits 300 Gbits 500 Gbits 1 000 Gbits

Band

wid

th co

st

SAT3 Seacom TEAMs EASSy GLO1 MainOne Wacs ACE



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Broadband density

0,00%

2,00%

4,00%

6,00%

8,00%

10,00%

12,00%

14,00%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

% o

f P

op

ula

tio

n

Tunisia BB Market development: global and per technology

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Nu

mb

er o

f B

road

ban

d a

cces

s

BB access Adsl 3G data

Broadband access: Tunisia caseBroadband access: Tunisia case

International bandwidth per BB access

0

10

20

30

40

5060

70

80

90

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Kb

ps/

BB

acc

ess



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Broadband access: Tunisia caseBroadband access: Tunisia case



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Impact of backbone/Backhaul investment on Bandwidth cost

Cout total du Projet (CAPEX)

$2 661 262

annual Monthly

Reimbursment (Capex) $266 126 $22 177

Maintenance (opex) $106 450 $8 871Global cots

(opex+Capex)$372 577 $31 048

Financial analysis

Cost of IP Mbps/Monthly vs traffic

0 €

5 €

10 €

15 €

20 €

155 Mbps

300 Mbps

1Gbps

2,5 Gbits

10 Gbits

Bandwidth

Mb

ps/

mo

ntl

y $



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Indicator of BB quality in some African Countries

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0,00% 5,00% 10,00% 15,00% 20,00%

Density of BB access

Ban

dw

idth

per

BB

acc

ess

(Kb

ps)

BB density vs bandwidth per BB access…an indicator of quality ?



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Infrastructure Driving Factors of Network Congestion in Africa

Value Chain of internet in Africabecause 3Gbecause 3G--LTE Fixe data become reference technologyLTE Fixe data become reference technology

to support BB servicesto support BB services

WorldwideTechnicaleconomic

3$< < 5$

3 G /L T E

3 G

3 G

F O i n f r a .1 0 G e

3 G /L T E

3 G

3 G

F O i n f r a .1 0 G e

AccessTechnicaleconomic

Radio vs TerrestrialinfrastructureLicence cost

Spectrum cost

BackhaulTechnicaleconomic

Sub marine cableTechnicaleconomic

20$< < 3000$

backboneTechnicaleconomic

National and regional backbone

NationalAnd

Regional



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Developing effective and sustainable policies

A large number of exogenous factorsare impacting on QoS and pricing of Internet,

Infrastructure access is one of the major in Africa

Solutions?



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Broadband access MAU + Egypt (Global et per technology)

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

ADSL 3G Global Broadband access

Quality of internet in Africa



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Quality of internet in Africa

IP international bandwidth per BB access (Kbps/BB access)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Kbps

Tunisia Morocco Egypt Mauritania Algeria Libya



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Africa IP traffic: Historical and projection

Africa IP international Traffic: Historical and projection

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

18000000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

7% T

unisi

a10

% T

unis

ia

10%

Hig

ht (1

20Kb

ps//B

B a)

Year-Density

Mbps



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Smart pricing Value ChainAfrican case (4) ((Tunisia Case)



Keltra-220Gbps

Hannibal3.2Tbps

SEA-ME-WE-4

1.28Tbps

Keltra-220Gbps

Hannibal3.2Tbps

SEA-ME-WE-4

1.28Tbps

3G /L T E

3 G

3G

F O in fra .1 0 G e

3G /L T E

3 G

3G

F O in fra .1 0 G e


Backhaul/backboneTechnicaleconomic



3$< < 5$20$< < 3000$country country



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MERCI

OBRIGADO

THANK YOU

Muchas gracias

Grazie mille

شكرا



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Round table



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Driving Factors of Network Congestion and economic aspectsAfrican case (1)

During 2000-201x Years, the transposition of Mobile vs Fixe by the African consumers is a fact

The emergency of broadband in Africa will be (is) based on the usage’s transposition of Internet 3G (4G) data vs fixe technologies ( Adsl, Coax,…)…

For exemple 3G IP data traffic of Tunisia is equivalent of 50 % of France one



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Driving Factors of Network CongestionAfrican case (3) Mauritania Case study

57

101 9970 73 71

55 53 5633 22

384

292

170 154 142 120 11780

37 25 17 0

100

200

300

400

500

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

min

utes

par

lign

e et

par

moi

s

mill

ions

de

min

utes

Volume total de trafic et usage (fixe)

Volume de trafic(M min)

Usage(min / ligne / mois)Source : rapports

d'activité ARE

2 198 790 977 9775 876 6 530 5 593 5 5931 364 13 041 17 971

169 496

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

200 000

2008 2009 2010 2011

Nom

bre

d'ab

onne

men

ts

Parc Internet

RTC LS ADSL Mobile

Source : ARE

75 159 245 421 527 7571 168

1 6172 283

2 73135

45 4755

49 4955

64 6875

01020304050607080

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

min

utes

par

lign

e et

par

moi

s

mill

ions

de

min

utes

Volume total de trafic et usage (mobile)

Volume de trafic(M min)

Usage(min / ligne / mois)

Source : rapports d'activité ARE

IP international bandwidth

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mbps

Internet 3G data Impact



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Driving Factors of Network CongestionAfrican case (3)

Quality of internet in AfricaIP international bandwidth per BB access (Kbps/BB access)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Kbps

Tunisia Morocco Egypt Mauritania Algeria Libya

Broadband access MAU + Egypt (Global et per technology)

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

ADSL 3G Global Broadband access



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Driving Factors of Network CongestionAfrican case (4) ((Tunisia Case)



Keltra-220Gbps

Hannibal3.2Tbps

SEA-ME-WE-4

1.28Tbps

Keltra-220Gbps

Hannibal3.2Tbps

SEA-ME-WE-4

1.28Tbps

3G /L T E

3 G

3G

F O in fra .1 0 G e

3G /L T E

3 G

3G

F O in fra .1 0 G e


Backhaul/backboneTechnicaleconomic



3$< < 5$20$< < 3000$country country

Documents

International Telecommunication Consultant CJBMI & ass 8th ......Growth in Mobile Connections 4.6 Billion 2009 20152011 6 Billion 7.8 Billion C de Jacquelot ([email protected]) International