Yogyakart

a,

Indonesia

, 27-2

9 J

uly

2009

Internatio

nal

Tele

com

munic

atio

n

Unio

n

The Challenges of Wireless Broadband

in Emerging M

arkets

Dirk W

olter

CTO S&SEA Region

Alcatel-Lucent

ITU-D

Regional Development Forum for

the Asia Pacific Region

“NGN and Broadband, Opportunities and Challenges”

Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 27 –

29 July 2009

Yogyakart

a,

Indonesia

, 27-2

9 J

uly

2009

Internatio

nal

Tele

com

munic

atio

n

Unio

n

Broadband in APAC

“The Digital Divide”

Australia

Bangladesh

China

Hong Kong

India

Indonesia

Japan

Malaysia

New Zealand

Pakistan

Philippines

Singapore

South Korea

Sri Lanka

Taiwan

Thailand

Vietnam

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Household Broadband Penetration Rate (%)

Mobile Penetration Rate (%) Source: Frost & Sullivan 5/10/2008

Broadband vsMobile

Penetration in APAC

Two different broadband trends

HIGH INCOME ECONOMIES

�Race to provide ever faster

fixed broadbandspeed;

deployment of mobile

broadband at ever lower

price

�Broadband has become

an commodity, fiber

deployment, IP-based voice,

video applications and 3G

mobile use

�Fixed and m

obile

technologies complement

each other

LOW INCOME ECONOMIES

�Mobile phones have become

a substitute for fixed line

and fixed broadband

access

�The m

obile phoneis often

the primary internet device

�Disparity betw

een

Internet user and

internet subscriber count,

Internet connections are

often shared (eginternet

cafes)

Broadband M

arket Penetration

DSL is main broadband technology in APAC but remains flat over

the coming years

Wireless broadband (HSPA, WiMAX, Ev-DO) continues to grow

rapidlyTotal broadband household

penetration APAC

Broadband Connections by

Technology APAC (2007)

Source: Ovum, Apr’09

The M

arket Trends

GPON, FTTH, ADSL2,

WiFi, Bluetooth,

3GHSPA, WiMAX

GSM, GPRS, fixe

Mobile Networks

Fixed Networks

Networks

Broadband, Rich

Internet Internet IPv6,

office collaboration

security, YouTube, Ebay,

Google Maps, facebook

Internet at 50kbps

IPv4, individual office

Google, Yahoo,

Java

data bases

web

Applications

Blackberry, tablet PC,

PDA, GPS, laptop,

iphone, ipod, digital

photo 5Mpixels,

Nintendo DS, BlueRay

Desktop PC, playstation,

cathodic tube

Mobile phone Voice/SMS

photo the Kodak/Fuji way

Microelectronics

batteries

Terminals

Material Reality

2009

Material Reality

2000

Technological

Base

Elements

The M

arket Trends

Mobile Networks

Fixed Networks

Networks

Java

data bases

web

Applications

Microelectronics

batteries

Terminals

Material Reality

2009

Material Reality

2000

Technological

Base

Elements

Yogyakart

a,

Indonesia

, 27-2

9 J

uly

2009

Internatio

nal

Tele

com

munic

atio

n

Unio

n

Broadband W

ireless Evolution

and challenges in Emerging M

arkets

Yogyakart

a,

Indonesia

, 27-2

9 J

uly

2009

Internatio

nal

Tele

com

munic

atio

n

Unio

n9

Broadband ?

Poor competition & Offers

Yogyakart

a,

Indonesia

, 27-2

9 J

uly

2009

Internatio

nal

Tele

com

munic

atio

n

Unio

n10

Mark

et dem

and

Yogyakart

a,

Indonesia

, 27-2

9 J

uly

2009

Internatio

nal

Tele

com

munic

atio

n

Unio

n11

Fixed Infrastructure

Yogyakart

a,

Indonesia

, 27-2

9 J

uly

2009

Internatio

nal

Tele

com

munic

atio

n

Unio

n12

Mobile…

Yogyakart

a,

Indonesia

, 27-2

9 J

uly

2009

Internatio

nal

Tele

com

munic

atio

n

Unio

n13

Mobile B

roadband

14| T

ech

nolo

gy U

pdate

| A

pril 2009

All R

ights

Rese

rved ©

Alcate

l-Lu

cent 2007, XXXXX

Gro

wth

Are

as fo

r m

obile o

pera

tors

Acc

essi

bility

Acc

essi

bility

Acc

essi

bility

Acc

essi

bility

Pov

erty

Pov

erty

Pov

erty

Pov

erty

Urb

anU

rban

Urb

anU

rban

Sub

urba

nSub

urba

nSub

urba

nSub

urba

nR

ural

Rur

alR

ural

Rur

al

Tel

ecom

T

elec

om

Tel

ecom

T

elec

om

Acc

ess

Acc

ess

Acc

ess

Acc

ess

Tod

ayT

oday

Tod

ayT

oday

Maj

orit

y of

Upc

omin

gM

ajor

ity

of U

pcom

ing

Maj

orit

y of

Upc

omin

gM

ajor

ity

of U

pcom

ing

Sub

scri

ber

Sub

scri

ber

Sub

scri

ber

Sub

scri

ber

Oth

er s

ubs

prio

riti

esO

ther

sub

s pr

iori

ties

Oth

er s

ubs

prio

riti

esO

ther

sub

s pr

iori

ties

Rea

l R

eal

Rea

l R

eal

acce

ss

acce

ss

acce

ss

acce

ss

gap

gap

gap

gap

Thre

e key m

ark

et se

gments for

growth

:

1.

Lo

we

r A

RP

U,

<5

US$

AR

PU

-Pote

ntial su

bsc

ribers a

lready co

vere

d b

ut ca

n’t

afford

the serv

ice

2.

Ru

ral

Pote

ntial su

bsc

ribers o

utsid

e n

etw

ork

reach

3.

Ad

van

ced

/ b

road

ban

d u

sers

Afflu

ent urb

an subsc

ribers d

em

andin

g rich

er

serv

ices (b

roadband, ente

rtain

ment,

personalise

d serv

ices)

Key ch

allenge

s fo

r th

e n

etw

ork

:TCO, Cove

rage

, Bro

adband /

Multim

edia

15| T

ech

nolo

gy U

pdate

| A

pril 2009

All R

ights

Rese

rved ©

Alcate

l-Lu

cent 2007, XXXXX

Air Inte

rface

/ Sta

ndard

s evo

lutions

All tech

nolo

gies have

NOW

an u

pgr

ade p

ath

to LTE

CDMA

CDMA

TDMA

TDMA

Deplo

yed

Arrivin

gNext

ste

p

CDMA 1

X

BWA

BWA

4G

IT

U100 M

bps

(full m

obility)

1Gbps

(hotspot)

Still OFDM !

WiM

AX 1

6d

WiM

AX 1

6e

TDD

GERAN

Evo

lutions

EDGE

WCDMA

EVDO

Rev A/B

GSM

HSD

PA

HSU

PA

LTE R

8/R9

FDD/TDD

HSP

A+

LTE R

10

FDD/TDD

TD-S

CDMA

TD-S

CDMA

Evo

lution

Re

cen

tu

pd

ate

sN

ew

Pro

po

sal

WiM

AX 1

6m

TDD/FDD

UMB

Fle

xible

Spect

rum

Bands

GSM

/GPR

S/

GSM

/GPR

S/

GSM

/GPR

S/

GSM

/GPR

S/

ED

GE

ED

GE

ED

GE

ED

GE

450

450

MHz

MHz

UM

TS/ H

SD

PA

UM

TS/ H

SD

PA

UM

TS/ H

SD

PA

UM

TS/ H

SD

PA

Mob

ile

WiM

AX

Mob

ile

WiM

AX

Mob

ile

WiM

AX

Mob

ile

WiM

AX

�N

ew

sp

ectr

um

in 2

/3 G

Hz bands fo

r ca

pacity

, lo

wer su

b 1

GHz bands fo

r co

vera

ge

�R

e-f

arm

ing

lega

cy s

pe

ctr

um

cellula

r bands fo

r new tech

nolo

gie

s �

Re-farm

ing fro

m B

road

cast

to

Te

lco

sp

ect

rum

LT

EL

TE

LT

EL

TE

470

470--

700

700

MHz

MHz

850

850

MHz

MHz

900

900

MHz

MHz

1500

1500

MHz

MHz

1900

1900

MHz

MHz

2100

2100

MHz

MHz

2300

2300

MHz

MHz

2500

2500

MHz

MHz

CD

MA

/EV

DO

CD

MA

/EV

DO

CD

MA

/EV

DO

CD

MA

/EV

DO

DV

BD

VB

DV

BD

VB

- ---H HHH

1800

1800

MHz

MHz

2200

2200

MHz

MHz

3300

3300

MHz

MHz

3500

3500

MHz

MHz

Currently use

dPla

n fro

m sta

ndard

perspect

ive

ComparingWireless Technologies

All IP

PS only

WBS to HA

BF, 2x2 MIMO

QPSK/16QAM

QPSK/16QAM/

64QAM

5MHz, 10MHz

sOFDMA

WiM

AX

QPSK/16QAM/6

4QAM

QPSK/16QAM/64

QAM

QPSK/16QAM

QPSK

DL

Modulation

PS Only

PS but

Compatible to CS

CS & PS

CS & PS

Services

All IP

Possibly All IP

ATM/ Mixed

ATM & IP

ATM/ Mixed

ATM & IP

Transport

Scaleable 1.4 -

20MHz

5MHz

5MHz

5MHz

Bandwidth

QPSK/16QAM

QPSK/16QAM

QPSK

BPSK

UL

Modulation

2x2 -4X4

MIMO

2x2 MIMO

Rx Diversity

Rx Diversity

Antenna

Systems

eNodeB to ePC

Node B + RNC

Or eHSPANode B

Node B +

RNC

Node B +

RNC

Netw

ork

Structure

OFDMA DL

SC-FDMA UL

W-CDMA

W-CDMA

W-CDMA

Radio Access

LTE

HSPA+

HSPA

UMTS

(R.99)

Higher Spectrum Efficiency

HSPA

+H

SPA

+H

SPA

+H

SPA

+

UM

TS

UM

TS

UM

TS

UM

TS

Latency

Latency

Throughput

Throughput

2Mbps DL

768 kbps UL

28.8 / 43

Mb/s DL

11.5Mb/s UL

0.25 DL

0.1 UL

1.5 DL

0.6 UL

173 M

b/s DL

86 M

b/s UL

LT

EL

TE

LT

EL

TE

120ms

30ms

<10ms

(Erlangs/MHz/cell)

14-17

HSPA

HSPA

HSPA

HSPA

14.4 M

b/s DL

5.7Mb/s UL

60ms

Average Spectral

Average Spectral

efficiency

efficiency

0.75 DL

0.25 UL

2.1 DL

1.6 UL

10-17

26-32

45-55

(bps/Hz/cell)

Voice Capacity

Voice Capacity

WiM

AX

WiM

AX

WiM

AX

WiM

AX

48Mb/s DL

7 M

b/s UL

60ms

32-47

1.9 DL

0.8 UL

Ne

w w

ire

less

sta

nd

ard

s o

ffe

r si

gnif

ican

tly b

ett

er

pe

rfo

rman

ce,

thu

s im

pro

vin

g n

etw

ork

eco

no

my a

nd

en

d-u

ser

exp

eri

en

ce

Yogyakart

a,

Indonesia

, 27-2

9 J

uly

2009

Internatio

nal

Tele

com

munic

atio

n

Unio

n

Wireless Broadband Service

A Realty Check

Wireless Broadband

in EmergingMarkets

Urban areas: Wireless Network with poor

Service Quality

Disparity between advertised speeds and

experienced speeds

Networks -designed for mobile data –are also

used for residential broadband

Multiple Networks available but often

congested

Rural areas: Coverage problem

UMTS/HSPA and EVDO service limited to cities

Network economy challenge

21| U

pdate

s to

TMI | 2

5 Febru

ary

2009

All R

ights

Rese

rved ©

Alcate

l-Lu

cent 2009

21| U

pdate

s to

TMI | 2

5 Febru

ary

2009

IP W

ireline

Applica

tions People

Use

Eve

ry D

ay …

Have

VERY D

iffe

rent Im

pact

s on the W

irele

ss D

ata

Netw

ork

�V

PN

Use

rs can

Consu

me o

n A

vera

ge,

10x th

e A

irtim

e a

s Typ

ical Use

rs

Rad

io

Ne

two

rk

Co

ntr

oll

er

Pack

et

Co

re

No

de

B,

BT

S

Air

tim

e E

xh

au

stio

n

Ban

dw

idth

Exh

au

stio

n

Sign

ali

ng

Exh

au

stio

n

�P

2P

Use

rs D

ownlo

ad

10

’s of GB p

er day,

Consu

min

g 30% o

f Bandwid

th

�In

fecte

d /

Malf

un

ctio

nin

g D

evic

es

/ W

orm

sConsu

me

Dispro

portio

nate

Am

ounts o

f Sign

aling Reso

urc

es

�E

mail

De

live

ry D

evic

eson

Ave

rage

, ca

use

10X the

Sign

aling Lo

ad a

s Phones

or Airca

rdsUse

d for W

eb-

bro

wsing

22| U

pdate

s to

TMI | 2

5 Febru

ary

2009

All R

ights

Rese

rved ©

Alcate

l-Lu

cent 2009

22| U

pdate

s to

TMI | 2

5 Febru

ary

2009

“C

ost

pe

r M

inu

te”

IP T

raffic Looks Very

Diffe

rent W

hen V

iewed b

y How It

Consu

mes Reso

urc

es in

the R

adio

Acc

ess N

etw

ork

Air

tim

e(2

4 H

ou

r P

eri

od

)

Ban

dw

idth

(24

Ho

ur

Pe

rio

d)

“C

ost

pe

r B

it”

Mo

st C

om

mo

n F

ram

ew

ork

fo

r D

esi

gnin

g/M

an

agi

ng/

Pri

cin

g N

etw

ork

s T

od

ay

Ne

w M

an

age

me

nt

Para

dig

m:

Evo

lvin

g IP

Tra

ffic

Im

pact

on

W

ire

less

Ne

two

rk R

eso

urc

es

23| U

pdate

s to

TMI | 2

5 Febru

ary

2009

All R

ights

Rese

rved ©

Alcate

l-Lu

cent 2009

23| U

pdate

s to

TMI | 2

5 Febru

ary

2009

IP A

pplica

tions Consu

me W

idely D

iffe

rent Loads on the W

irele

ss N

etw

ork

Each

Su

bsc

rib

er

Ru

nn

ing

Each

A

pp

lica

tio

n

Co

nsu

me

s

Vo

lum

eT

ota

l A

irti

me

C

on

sum

ed

Sign

ali

ng

Eve

nts

Mobile W

eb

1 M

B20 m

inute

s100

P2P

1 M

B30 seco

nds

0.3

Em

ail D

evice

s1 M

B2 h

ours

1500

MSN

Spam

1 M

B2 h

ours

1400

HSPA Field Performances

“Real”speed is much below peak rate

End user performance depends on:

UE category

Location (lower rate at the cell edge)

Network load

5.2

MAC laye

r, sin

gle u

ser

enviro

nm

ent, a

ll

reso

urc

es

de

dic

ate

d t

o

HSP

A, ave

rage

Use

r ra

te4.2

Real co

nditio

ns: p

ower

and codes are

sh

are

dwith V

oice u

sers, ave

rage

use

r applica

tion rate

1.7

Use

r Rate

-FTP

Typ

ical Use

r Rate

-FTP

Applica

tion laye

r (F

TP),

all

re

sou

rce

s d

ed

icate

d

to H

SPA

, ave

rage

use

r ra

te

0.7

5

2.5

3.2

Mbps (T

ypical Rate

)Mbps (T

ypical Rate

)

Use

r Rate

-MAC

Use

r Rate

-FTP

Typ

ical Use

r Rate

-FTP

Use

r Rate

-MAC

Use

r Rate

-FTP

Typ

ical Use

r Rate

-FTP

Use

r Rate

-MAC

Use

r Rate

-FTP

Typ

ical Use

r Rate

-FTP

Mbps (T

ypical Rate

)

3

Cat

10

/14

.4 M

bp

sC

at

8/

7.2

Mb

ps

HSD

PA

Cat

6/

5.7

Mb

ps

Cat

5/

2 M

bp

s

HSU

PA

2.5

1.7 1

1.1

1.4

Use

r Rate

-MAC

Backhaul to cope w

ith traffic growth

Conventional TDM based backhauling doesn‘t

scale for data traffic

Migration to packet transport

ma

Tra

ffic, Capacity

Reve

nue

Data

Era

Voice E

ra

Cost

Sourc

e: Unstru

ng

Th

e l

imit

of

TD

M B

ack

hau

lin

g:

Serv

ice A

ware

Data

Era

Voice E

ra

Reve

nue

Tra

ffic

Capacity Cost

Sourc

e: Alcate

l-Lucent

A c

ost

eff

ect

ive

Pack

et

Tra

nsp

ort

Solu

tio

ns

for

wid

er

cove

rage

in

ru

ral

are

as

�Lo

w fre

quency

bands: 4

50/700/850/900 M

Hz

�Digital divid

end, LT

E 7

00 M

Hz

�Refa

rmin

g(e

.g. UMTS9

00)

�Lo

w p

ower co

nsu

mption and a

ltern

ative

power so

lutions

�Sa

tellite b

ack

haul or lo

ng ra

nge

micro

wave

solu

tions

Challenges of Wireless Broadband in Emerging

Markets and Technology Response

Mark

et Key Challenge

#1:

Aff

ord

ab

ilit

y

How to serv

e <

US$

5 A

RPU

pro

fita

bly?

Imp

rove

d n

etw

ork

eco

no

my (

TC

O)

�Multi-standard

solu

tions, conve

rged R

AN

�Reduce

d p

ower co

nsu

mption a

nd foot print

�NGN core

/ IP tra

nsp

ort (META)

�In

frastru

cture

sharing

�Fla

t IP

centric, higher ca

pacity

RAN, se

lf o

ptim

ization

Bro

ad

ban

d o

pti

mis

ed

rad

io n

etw

ork

s �EVDO, HSP

A/HSP

A+, LT

E, W

IMAX

�HOM (16QAM, 64QAM), M

IMO

�Optim

ized,

“flat”

arc

hitect

ure

reduce

s la

tency

�Multip

le (EVDO, HSP

A) and w

ider ca

rrie

r (W

iMAX, LT

E)

�Data

centric (IP

) back

hauling

Mark

et Key Challenge

#3:

Bro

ad

ban

d P

erf

orm

an

ce

How to o

ptim

ize the n

etw

ork

for a

better bro

adband e

xperience

?

Mark

et Key Challenge

#2:

Acc

ess

ibil

ity

How to e

xtend cove

rage

into

rura

l are

as?

Yogyakart

a,

Indonesia

, 27-2

9 J

uly

2009

Internatio

nal

Tele

com

munic

atio

n

Unio

n

The Right Technology M

ix

Which W

ireless Technology?

Market environment

Demand for services and applications

Performance and QoSrequirements

Competitor environment

Availability and M

aturity of the technology

Sufficient choice of suppliers

Compliant with Industry standards

System economy

Availability and cost of terminals

Availability of Radio Spectrum

What frequency Band and what bandwidth profile ?

Paired (FDD) or unpaired (TDD)?

Regulatory environment

Infrastructure sharing

USO/USF

Competition Environment

Existing fixed and mobile services

Frequency Bands, Coverage and

Capacity

# Sites/Sub density in Rural environment

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

02.5

57.5

10

12.5

15

17.5

20

22.5

25

27.5

Subscribers density (#subs/sqkm)

# Sites

700 MHz

2.5 GHz

3.5 GHz

# Sites/Sub density in Rural environment

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

02.5

57.5

10

12.5

15

17.5

20

22.5

25

27.5

Subscribers density (#subs/sqkm)

# Sites

700 MHz

2.5 GHz

3.5 GHz

Lower frequencies require less sites, more suitable for rural environments

Different bands have limitations on amount of BW available, eg. smaller BW

typically in low frequencies, larger BW in high frequencies

ALU estimates

Assumption:

700MHz@10M

Hz profile,

2.5GHz/3.5GH

z@20MHz

profile.

700MHz more

prone to

inter-cell

interference

in high

interference

conditions

Ru

ral

De

nse

Urb

an

BANDWIDTH vsDENSITY

Bandwidth per user (Mbps)

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

12

57.5

10

12.5

2 8

16

64

100

200

400

800

1000

Broadband

SD TV

HD TV

Fibre +

FTTN

Wireless only

DSL CO +

Wim

ax/FTTN

Wireless +

Satellite

•Mobile Broadband is quick and easy approach to address

broadband demand

•Fixed technologies scale better for high density areas and greater

bandwidth demand

Density (users/sqkm)

Summary -The Right Technology M

ix

Fixed(eg FTTx, DSL, GPON) and

Cellular(HSPA, LTE, EVDO, WIM

AX)

Dense

Urban

Urban

Suburban

Rural

Cellular technologies

at low frequency bands

(egHSPA, LTE, EVDO)ExtremeRural

Wirelesscomplements

Wireline

Satellite?

(USO funds?)

Yogyakart

a,

Indonesia

, 27-2

9 J

uly

2009

Internatio

nal

Tele

com

munic

atio

n

Unio

n

Conclusion

Conclusion

In Emerging markets, broadband penetration lags behind

mobile penetration, wireless broadband serves also

residential users (substitute for fixed networks)

Wireless broadband networks often don’t cover rural areas

and are congested in dense urban areas

Stakeholders to improve wireless broadband service:

Equipment suppliers �

Technology provider

Operators �Rollouts, service provider, tariffs

Regulator �Facilitator: USF, spectrum, digital dividend

Broadband wireless has it’s limits…

“real”performance much lower than advertised peak rates.

Bottlenecks mostly in the radio access

Need to be complemented with fixed technologies (egDSL,

PON) to meet demand in dense urban areas

Lower frequency technologies (UMTS 900, LTE 700) for rural

areas

Yogyakart

a,

Indonesia

, 27-2

9 J

uly

2009

Internatio

nal

Tele

com

munic

atio

n

Unio

n

Thank You!

Dirk W

olter

CTO S&SEA Region

Alcatel-Lucent

Dirk.W

olter@alcatel-lucent.com

HP: +62 816 91 0849