Internet Technology and Policy Internet Technology and Policy ChallengesChallenges

NCSA Industrial Partner NCSA Industrial Partner Executive MeetingExecutive Meeting

Vint Cerf

MCI

April 29, 2003

New AphorismNew Aphorism

Power Corrupts And Powerpoint corrupts absolutely

Mosaic AnecdotesMosaic Anecdotes

Steve Wolff of NSF first introduced me to Mosaic somewhere in 1993.

Meeting with Marc Andreesen and Jim Clark in July 1994 at an SF restaurant.

ISOC reported WWW growth rate of 674,231% in 1995

Internet - Global StatisticsInternet - Global Statistics

22.5 Million Hosts

(Bellcore June 1997)

50 Million Users

(NUA Jul 1997)

171.6 Million Hosts (ISC Jan 2003)

605 Million Users

(NUA Sept 2002)

(approx. 1.3 Billion Telephone Terminations)

Users on the Internet – Sept 2002Users on the Internet – Sept 2002

CAN/US - 182.67M Europe - 190.92M Asia/Pac - 187.24M Latin Am - 33.35M Africa - 6.31M Mid-east - 5.12M

--------------------------- Total - 605.6 M

CAN/US

Europe

Asia/Pac

Latin Am

Africa

Mid East

(Source www.nua.ie)(Source www.nua.ie)

Internet User TrendsInternet User Trends

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

'95

'97

'99

'01

'03

'05

'07

'09

'11

'13

'15

Year

Use

rs (

Mill

ions

)

Source: Nua Internet Surveys + vgc projections

Estimate revised 4/2003

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006

hosts mobiles?

Global Internet Hosts (000s) 1989-2006Global Internet Hosts (000s) 1989-2006

605 Million usersSept 2002

Source: Cerf, based on www.nw.com, Jun 2000 ( LM Ericsson)Source: Cerf, based on www.nw.com, Jun 2000 ( LM Ericsson)

Note: hosts include servers only, revised 4/2003

Internet Architecture ChangesInternet Architecture Changes

ATM and Frame Relay have been replaced by MPLS for traffic management

DWDM at 10 Gb/s is the preferred long haul transmission method

Optical switching in the core (circuit, packet)

Internet Access AlternativesInternet Access Alternatives

Gigabit Ethernet is becoming a preferred access method for business customers (someday, consumers)

Wireless and mobile access (802.11a/b/g, 802.16,UWB, 3G/4G, Bluetooth, etc.)

Major Technology IssuesMajor Technology Issues

Reliability and Availability Security of routers, DNS, servers and clients Broadband deployment (access, symmetry) The GRID Personal privacy Authentication of parties in transactions Data integrity and confidentiality Deployment of IPv6 standard

Simulation and the Real WorldSimulation and the Real World

Simulated space station Many “rooms” Observatory Simulated controls lead to real telescope

Remote instrumentation an increasing reality observatories, marine observations,

remote sensing (Earth, Solar System…)

Internet-enabled AppliancesInternet-enabled Appliances

SIP TelephonySIP Telephony

Session Initiation Protocol Telephones

Cisco Systems, Pingtel, etc.

“email” addressing ENUM:

1.1.9.3.0.6.5.3.0.7.1.e164.arpa = sip:vinton.g.cerf@wcom.com

NAPTR (naming authority pointer)

The power of SIP

(any domain name)

Internet-enabled DevicesInternet-enabled Devices Programmable – Java, Python, etc. Examples: WebTV, Palm-Pilot, Mobiles,Video

games, Picture Frames, Washing Machines

Refrigerator (and the bathroom scales) Automobiles (Japan, [Netherlands]) Internet-enabled wine corks Internet-enabled socks

Policy Discussion TopicsPolicy Discussion Topics

Flat rate business models Intellectual Property (trademarks, copyright, domain

names) ICANN: Domain Names, IP Address allocation, dispute

resolution Online fraud and other abuses Censorship (blocking “web pages” and extra-territoriality);

geographic independence Taxation Security and Privacy Regulation, broadband, convergence Cryptography and export controls

Flat Rate Business ModelsFlat Rate Business Models

Internet and IP-based services are historically fixed price

SIP telephony is taking us there MCI’s Neighborhood and Advantage

services are deliberately insensitive to underlying technology

Issues: are the cost and pricing structures compatible? Future of CDRs?

Regulating TelecomsRegulating Telecoms

Internet and IP-based services are essentially about packet transport.

Underlying switching is largely insensitive to applications (web, email, voice, video…)

Uniform ISP access to underlying dedicated transport would be consistent with the still-predominant architecture of the dial-up Internet (anyone can reach any ISP). Like reaching chosen IXC by dialing “1”

Issue: are business models compatible?

Broadband DataBroadband Data

Competing technology is no guarantee of competition in the field Cable vs satellite vs DSL MMDS (not economic) 3G (spectral expense) Residential vs Commercial Markets

Asymmetry vs Symmetry Servers and services

TaxationTaxation

Taxing online transactions that would have been taxed in offline cases seems rational. Issue: erosion of income as transactions move online

Fair playing field for online and offline competitors

Issue: basis for tax (nexus, location of parties and service delivery, who collects?)

CensorshipCensorship

Increasing attempts by countries, states/provinces to censor Internet through court orders to ISPs

Technologically flawed model Extra-territoriality Cannot “censor” at domain name or URL

level unless you control server “black-holing” IP address is a blunt instrument

Security and PrivacySecurity and Privacy

Tension between these desirable goals Amitai Etzioni: Limits to Privacy

Outlines the tension between protecting individual privacy and protecting society

Vulnerability increases as dependence grows on information technology and computer networking

Industry needs to take lead in securing systems – technologically and operationally

Individuals also have responsibilities

Future look. .

Mars Exploration RoversMars Exploration Rovers

Interplanetary Internet:Interplanetary Internet:“InterPlaNet”“InterPlaNet”

Planetary internets Interplanetary Gateways Interplanetary Channel Protocol

“bundles” encapsulated in CCSDS link and higher layer transport (Licklider Transport Protocol)

.earth.sol.int, .mars.sol.int Functional Layers of Protocol Interplanetary Network and Information

Systems Directorate (old DSN) Project supports Mars mission plans

Cerf’s slides and other Cerf’s slides and other Internet information can be Internet information can be found at:found at:

www.mci.com/cerfsupwww.mci.com/cerfsupwww.isoc.org/internetlivinginternet.comlivinginternet.comwww.ipnsig.orgwww.ipnsig.org