IntroductiontoCMI-16:ThesixteenthannualmeetingoftheCarbonMitigationInitiative

StevePacalaandRobertSocolowCarbonMitigationInitiative(CMI)

PrincetonUniversity

April4,2017

Co-Directors:S.PacalaR.Socolow

BP:C.FeildingG.Hill

AdvisoryCouncil:S.Benson,StanfordD.Burtraw,ResourcesfortheFutureD.Hawkins,NaturalResourcesDefense

CouncilM.Levi,CouncilonForeignRelationsD.Schrag,Harvard

Collaborators(partiallist):GFDL,PrincetonNJTsinghuaUniversityPolitecnico diMilanoUniversityofBergenClimateCentral,PrincetonNJ

ResearchGroups:ScienceTechnologyIntegration

CMIStructure

AlternatemeetingsinLondonandPrinceton

LaboratorySafety

BPmonitorslaboratorysafetyannually,eithervisitingindividuallabsorlearningaboutnewdevelopmentsattheUniversitylevel.

CMI’sCurrentLabs:Sciencelabs:Bender(gassesinice)andMorel(oceangeochemistry)

Engineeringlabs:Bourg(geologicalengineering),Steingart(batteries),andStone(fluids)

Feb14,2017:PresentationtoCindyandGardinerfromPrincetonEnvironmentalHealthandSafety(EHS,http://ehs.princeton.edu/)aboutSHIELD(Safety,Health,InspectionandEquipmentLogisticsDatabase).SHIELDisnewcampus-widehealth/safetysoftwarethatis“revolutionizing”informationmanagement.

PrincetonlabsafetyreportsaresenttoGardinereachyear.

History

CMIbeganin2000,atatimewhenJohnBrownesensedthattheworldmightpassthroughadiscontinuityandbegintotakeclimatechangeseriously.

BrownewantedBPtodevelopacomfortablerelationshipwitharesearchcenterthatwouldadvanceclimatescienceandanalyzelow-carbontechnology.

Thisremainsourjointobjective.

Timeline(lasttwoyears)

“Adangerousmomentforclimatechangeandforscience”

“Thescrimmagelineforclimatechangehasmoveddramatically,andthegamehasbecomemoredangerous…ScientistsmustfindinnovativewaystoaddressthedissidentviewsofclimatechangesciencethathavehadsuchastronginfluenceontheRepublicanParty.”

“Thepublicpolicyproblemofclimatechangeis,atitscore,aproblemofriskmanagementinthefaceofimperfectlyunderstoodrisks.Businessandmilitaryleadersarenaturalpartners,becausetheyunderstandriskmanagement.”

Nov.22,2017

RisksofclimatechangeforBP

TheclimateproblemhasthepotentialtodisruptBP’scorebusinessinatleastthreeways:

1. Effectiveclimatepoliciescanemergethatdiscouragefossilfuelconsumption,thatimposeenvironmentalperformancestandardsonproductionprocesses,andthatsubsidizeorotherwisepromoteefficiencyandlowcarbonenergy.

2. Climate-motivatedresearchcancreatedisruptivenewenergytechnology.

3. Theconsequences ofclimatechangecandirectlydisruptBP’sinvestmentsinenergyproductioninfrastructureandsupplychains.

BPsupportsCMItohelpmanagerisks

1.CMIsharpensBP’scorporateperspectiveonclimatechange.ItprovidesBPwithstrategicunderstandingofthepotentialphysical,biologicalandhumansystemsimpacts.

2.BPbenefitswhenCMIdisseminatessoundinformationthatsupportseffectivepublicpolicydiscussions.

3.BPleveragesthemuchlargerresearchprogramsoftheCMIinvestigators.

CMIAnnualReport

TableofContents

PEIBrochure

2017CMIBestPaperAward

EveryyearCMIawardsaprizetoapost-doctoralfellowwhohasmadeastrongcontributiontoastrongpaper.Thisyear’swinnerisBhargavRallabandi.Thepaperis:

BhargavRallabandi,ZhongZheng,MichaelWinton,andHowardA.Stone,Wind-DrivenFormationofIceBridgesinStraits,”PhysicalReviewLetters118,128701(March21,2017).

Break-upofanicebridgeintheNaresStrait(imagefromNASA]

Icebridgesformonlybeyondacriticalthicknessoftheseaice,relatedtowindstressesandthewidthofthestrait.Icebridges“clog”astrait,inhibitingtheexportofArcticseaiceintothewarmerAtlanticOcean.Inawarmingclimate,stableicebridgesmaynotform,acceleratingthelossofArcticseaice.

Thisisabridgepaperinasecondsense:anewGFDL-campuscollaboration.

PostersScienceGroup:KieranBhatia:"TheinfluenceofclimatechangeontropicalcyclonesintheHiFLOR model"StuartEvans:"Influenceoflandsurfaceprocessesonseasonalandinterannual variabilityofAustraliandustandclimateintheNOAA/GFDLCM3model"

BrandonReichl:"Oceansurfacewavesincoupledclimatemodeling"BhargavRallabandi:“SeaicedynamicsandbridgeformationinArcticstraits”Marjolein vanHuijgevoort:“Implementationofwatermanagementpracticesinaglobalscalelandmodel”(presentedbyChrisMilly)

TechnologyGroup:IanBourg:“Hydrophobicadsorptionatclay-waterinterfaces”GregDavies:"Batterystateofhealthestimationviamachinelearningandultrasonics”RyanEdwards:“Numericalmodelingofwaterandgasflowinshalegasformations:Wheredoesthewatergo?”

KevinKnehr:“Brominecaptureinminimalarchitecturezinc-brominebatteries”Ching-YaoLai:“Fluid-drivenfracture:scaling,flowback andfoams”Yiheng Tao:"Vertically-integrateddual-permeabilitymodelforCO2 injectioninfracturedreservoirs“

IntegrationGroup:HansMeerman:“‘Drop-in’transportfuelsviahydropyrolysis ofbiomass:aneconomicoptionfornegativeemissions?”

LeiZhao:“Interactionsbetweenurbanheatislandandheatwaveevents”(presentedbyJaneBaldwin)

AdvisoryCommittee(seefacebook)

SallyBensonStanfordUniversityProfessorof

EnergyResourcesEngineering

(unabletoattend)

FransBerkhoutKing’sCollege

LondonExecutiveDeanoftheFacultyof

SocialScienceandPublicPolicy;ProfessorofEnvironment,SocietyandClimate

OttmarEdenhoferPotsdamInstituteforClimateImpact

ResearchDeputyDirector

andChiefEconomist

(unabletoattend)

DavidHawkinsNatural

ResourcesDefenseCouncil

DirectorofClimatePrograms

DanielSchragHarvardUniversityProfessorofGeology;

ProfessorofEnvironmentalScienceandEngineering;DirectoroftheCenterfor

theEnvironment;DirectoroftheScience,TechnologyandPublicPolicyProgramatthe

KennedySchool

Agenda:Thismorning

Agenda:Thisafternoon

Agenda:Tomorrow

CMIPrincipalInvestigators

SCIENCE

TECHNOLOGY INTEGRATION

PACALASARMIENTOMORELBENDERVECCHI

SOCOLOWWILLIAMS

OPPENHIMERPACALA

CELIASTEINGART

STONEBOURG

OvertoSteve

CMIScience2017

PredictingCarbonSinksPacala,Sarmiento,Shevliakova

Netzero andnegativeemissionsPacala,Shevliakova

ExtremeweatherunderclimatechangeVecchi,GFDL

GlobalmethanecycleZhang,Horowitz,Poulot,Morel,Shevliakova

31%11.6GtCO2/yr

FateofanthropogenicCO2 emissions(2006-2015)

Source:CDIAC;NOAA-ESRL;Houghtonetal2012;Giglio etal2013;LeQuéréetal2016; GlobalCarbonBudget2016

26%9.7GtCO2/yr

34.1GtCO2/yr

91%

9%3.5GtCO2/yr

16.4GtCO2/yr

44%

Sources=Sinks

Changesinthebudgetovertime

Sinkshavebeenincreasingformorethan50years.

Source:CDIAC;NOAA-ESRL;Houghtonetal2012;Giglio etal2013;LeQuéréetal2016;GlobalCarbonBudget2016

CMIScience2017

PredictingCarbonSinksPacala,Sarmiento,Shevliakova

NetzeroandnegativeemissionsPacala,Sheviliakova

ExtremeweatherunderclimatechangeVecchi, GFDL

GlobalmethanecycleZhang,Horowitz,Poulot,Morel,Shevliakova

ParisScenarioFossilEmissions-CO2 stabilizesat442ppmin2050

andreaches1.75°Cin2100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

10

Allowed

Fossil

EmissionsGTCO2/y

2010 21002050

PredictionsoftheNOAAGFDLEarthSystemModel

Thiswouldbezerowithouttheoceanicandterrestrialsinks.

Parisnegative-carbonwedges

CCS

Negative-carbonwedges

Chair,StephenPacala(NAS),PrincetonUniversityMahdiAl-Kaisi,IowaStateUniversityMarkA.Barteau (NAE),UniversityofMichiganEricaBelmont,UniversityofWyomingSallyM.Benson,StanfordUniversityRichardBirdsey,WoodsHoleResearchCenterDaneBoysen,CyclotronRoad/LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratoryRileyDuren,JetPropulsionLaboratoryCharlesHopkinson,UniversityofGeorgiaChristopherJones,GeorgiaInstituteofTechnologyPeterKelemen (NAS),ColumbiaUniversityAnnieLevasseur,École Polytechnique deMontréalKeithPaustian,ColoradoStateUniversityJianwu (Jim)Tang,MarineBiologicalLaboratoryTiffanyTroxler,FloridaInternationalUniversityMichaelWara,StanfordUniversityJenniferWilcox,ColoradoSchoolofMines

CMIScience2017

PredictingCarbonSinksPacala,Sarmiento,Shevliakova

NetzeroandnegativeemissionsPacala,Sheviliakova

ExtremeweatherunderclimatechangeVecchi,GFDL

GlobalmethanecycleZhang,Horowitz,Poulot,Morel,Shevliakova

Mostimpactfulhurricanestendtobestrongest.Needpredictionmodelsthatcancapturethem.Newprototype

model(“GFDL-HiFLOR”,firstrunMay2014)abletosimulateCat.4-5s

Murakamietal.(2015,J.Clim)

(25kmFV3atmospherecoupledto1° MOM5)

CMIScience2017

PredictingCarbonSinksPacala,Sarmiento,Shevliakova

NetzeroandnegativeemissionsPacala,Sheviliakova

ExtremeweatherunderclimatechangeVecchi,GFDL

GlobalmethanecycleZhang,Horowitz,Poulot,Morel,Shevliakova

UnlikeCO2,methaneisrelativelyshort-livedinthetheatmosphere,but120timesmorepotentperunitmassasagreenhousegas.FromOcko etal.2017,Science, Inpress.

©2015SBCEnergyInstitute.

HumanitymustlimitemissionsofbothmethaneandCO2 toachievetheParistargets.

AtmosphericLifetimes

Greenh

ousewarmingpe

run

itmassrelativetoCO2

10 100 1000

100

1

10,000

AtmosphericLifetimeinYears

AnthropogenicMethaneSources(2000s)

Global Carbon Project 2013; Figure based on Kirschke et al. 2013

Quantifyingthecontributionofindividualsourcesandsinkstoatmosphericmethanevariabilityatglobalscales.

Discoveringcontrolsonmicrobialmethanemetabolismanditsisotopicsignatures.

NewSupplementaryAwardFromBPtoStudyGlobalMethane:2017-2020

CMIScience2017OtherStudiesDescribedinPostersandintheCMIAnnualReport:

FrancoisMorel:Oceanacidificationandtheavailabilityoftracemetals.MichaelBender:>millionyearoldicesupportscurrentunderstandingofthelinkbetweenCO2andclimate.HowardStone:Icedynamicsonlandandsea.

KieranBhatia:"TheinfluenceofclimatechangeontropicalcyclonesintheHiFLORmodel"StuartEvans:"InfluenceoflandsurfaceprocessesonseasonalandinterannualvariabilityofAustraliandustandclimateintheNOAA/GFDLCM3model"BrandonReichl:"Oceansurfacewavesincoupledclimatemodeling"Bhargav Rallabandi:“SeaicedynamicsandbridgeformationinArcticstraits”Marjolein vanHuijgevoort:“Implementationofwatermanagementpracticesinaglobalscalelandmodel”(presentedbyChrisMilly)

BacktoRob

TheweakcaseforCCU-fuels

Inthesecondhalfof2016IservedonataskforcethatwroteareportfortheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy.Entitled“TaskForceReportonCO2 UtilizationandNegativeEmissionsTechnologies,”itwassubmittedtoSecretaryofEnergy,ErnestJ.Moniz,onDecember13,2016.Itisonlineathttps://energy.gov/seab/downloads/final-report-task-force-co2-utilization,wherethetaskforceparticipantsandaDOE“Assessment”ofthereportarealsofound.

HereIexploreanissuethatourreportleftunresolved.ItgoesbeyondmyHighlightinthe2016AnnualReport.

Acknowledgements:NateLewis,ArunMajumdar,SallyBenson,EmilyCarter,MikeRamage,EricToone;JulioFriedmann,JonathanForsyth,IanLuciani,RobertWilliams.

Atmosphere

Subsurface

Economy

Theeconomy’scurrentcarbonflows

Today’santhropogeniccarbonflowsaredominatedbyextractionoffossilfuelandCO2 emissiontotheatmosphere.

Aneconomyresponsivetoclimatechangemodifiestheseflows.Ourcommitteeexcludedconsiderationofthenon-carboneconomy(allrenewablesandnuclear).Welookedonlyatmodificationsthatretainaflowofcarbon.These canbereducedtocombinationsofthreebuildingblocks.

Twonet-zerobuildingblocks

Atmosphere

Subsurface

Economy

CurrentEconomy

Atmosphere

Subsurface

Economy

PreventCO2 emission

Atmosphere

Subsurface

Economy

Usecarbononlyfromair

ConvertCO2 toahydrocarbon

Atmosphere

Subsurface

Economy

Incombination:NegativeCarbon

Augmentedsinks:athirdbuildingblock

Atmosphere

Subsurface

Economy

CurrentEconomy,augmentedview

Landandoceancarbonsinks

Enhancedsinks

Inthisidealization,theflowsofcarbonthroughtheeconomyareunchanged.

Whataboutthehalfbuildingblock:CO2 captureanduse(CCU)forfuel?

MotivationforCCU-fuel:SurelythereissomethingbettertodowithCO2 thanstickitunderground!

But,whendoesCCU-fuelmakesense?

Atmosphere

Subsurface

CentralizedEnergy

DecentralizedEnergy

OthernamesforCCU:“Carbonrecycle,”“Usingcarbontwice.”

TheCCU-fuelstoryline

Atmosphere

Subsurface

CentralizedEnergy

DecentralizedEnergy

“Sourceplant”

“CO2-enablingplant”

Storyline:Acarbon-basedtransportfuelwithnoCO2 emissionsisdesired.CarbonfromCO2 thatotherwisewouldhavebeenemittedatafossilfuelpowerplantmeetsthiscriterion.

Whatneedstobetrue?A. Electricvehicles,H2 vehicles,andbiofuelareunattractiveB. Highcarbonprice,butfossilfuelpowerstillabundantC. CO2 captureandreductionachievableatmodestcostD. CO2 storageunavailable

Theexternalenablingenergy

Atmosphere

Subsurface

CentralizedEnergy

DecentralizedEnergy

Theenablingenergy(greenarrow)mustbelow-carbon,andinquantityitmustexceedtheenergyreleasedwhenthevehiclefuelisburned.

Itisnaturaltoask:Aretherebettersystems,wheretheenablingenergyisuseddifferently?

Usetheenablingenergyforvehicles?

Atmosphere

Subsurface

DecentralizedEnergy+Atmosphere

Subsurface

CentralizedEnergy

CCU-fuelwinsthiscompetitiononlyif(aswehaveagreedtoassume)electricvehicles,H2vehicles,andbiofuelsarenotavailable.

Usetheenablingenergytodisplacefossilpower?

Atmosphere

Subsurface

DecentralizedEnergy+Atmosphere

Subsurface

CentralizedEnergy

CCU-fuellosesthiscompetitionevenatahighoilprice,becausethensynfuelscanbeproducedfromwhateverwouldhavebeentheCCUfeedstock(coal,nat.gas,biomass).IncontrasttoCCU,thesynfuelsplantisintegrated,andCdoesnotgoallthewaytoCO2 beforereduction;theCgoesonlytoCO.

0thervariants:Specialinitialconditions

Atmosphere

Subsurface

CentralizedEnergy DecentralizedEnergy

ThreevariantswhereCO2 isalreadythere,forsomereason:

CCSthrivesbutthenisthwarted(aleak).CCU-fueloschoseninsteadofdiscardingtheCCunit.

Onagrid,bothsolarpowerandnaturalgaswithCCS areabundant.CCUisanalternativeto“curtailment.”Atnoon,CCSbecomesCCU(lowcapacityfactorfortheCCUunit).CCUfuelcompeteswithload-shifting,storage.

CO2 forCCUcomesfromtheair,notfromapowerplant.

Ignorenichemarkets,storageAtmosphere

Subsurface

CentralizedEnergy DecentralizedEnergy

Twofurtherobservations:

1. TheSEABCommitteechargewastolookonlyat>1GtCO2/yr markets,whichmeanssynfuelforallsectorsandmaybeplastics.Weignoredhigh-valuenichemarkets,e.g.,pharmaceuticals,membranes.

2. CCUisnotastoragestrategy.OnlythelikesofaplasticbenchwillkeepCO2 outoftheatmosphereforacenturyormore.The“delaytime,”(timefromfirsttosecondhydrocarbonoxidation)istypicallyonlymonths.

DistinguishCCU-EORandCCU-fuelDistinguishCO2 useafterconversiontoahydrocarbonvs.useasCO2.

UseofCO2 formodifiedenhancedoilrecovery(EOR)maybecomeanimportantcarbonmanagementstrategy.

CurrentEORhasroughlya1:1carbon-flowratio(oneexternalCisstoredinthereservoirforeachCproduced).

ModifiedEORmayfeatureamuchlargerratio;say,3:1.Thiswouldinvolveentirelydifferentreservoirmanagement.

ModifiedEORmaybetheonlycrediblerealizationofCCU.