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Ecosystem Impacts of Geoengineering Workshop Scripps, 31 Jan 2011. Introduction to Geoengineering for Ecologists. Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology [email protected]. Reuters: David Gray. www.sit.ac.nz. Reuters: David Gray. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Introduction to Geoengineering for Ecologists
Ken CaldeiraCarnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology
Ecosystem Impacts of Geoengineering WorkshopScripps, 31 Jan 2011
Reuters: David Gray
Reuters: David Gray
www.sit.ac.nz
SolarRadiation
Management options
CarbonDioxide
Removal options
Desire for
improvedwell-being Demand
for goods and
services
Demand for
energy
Impacts on
humans and
Climate change &
ocean
CO2 emission
s
CO2 in
ecosystems
acidification
atmosphere
Conservation
Efficiency
Low-carbonenergy
Carbon dioxide removal
Adaptation
Climateengineering
Temperatures continue to increase throughout this
century in every plausible emissions scenario
IPCC TAR
There is no practical way for emissions reduction to reduce
temperatures this century
Volcanoes caused global cooling by putting dust in the
stratosphere
Soden et al., 2002
Mt.
Pin
atu
bo
Temperature effects of doubled CO2
ΔTemperature Statistical significance
Caldeira and Wood, 2008
Temperature effects of doubled CO2
ΔTemperature Statistical significance
Caldeira and Wood, 2008
with a uniform deflection of 1.84% of sunlight
Precipitation effects of doubled CO2
Caldeira and Wood, 2008
Temperature effects of doubled CO2
Caldeira and Wood, 2008
with a uniform deflection of 1.84% of sunlight
Zonal average precipitation and temperature
Caldeira and Wood, 2008
Cao et al, in prep.
In HadCM3L, a coarse-resolution atmosphere-ocean GCM,perform outer product of (27) simulations starting from
-- 3 different initial conditions (1xCO2, 2xCO2, 4xCO2)
-- 3 different CO2 levels (1xCO2, 2xCO2, 4xCO2)
-- 3 different solar intensity levels (-2CO2eq, normal, +2CO2eq)
Perform linear regressions to separate dependencies on -- global mean temperature,
-- CO2-concentration, and
-- solar intensity.
C – response per CO2-doublingS – response per equiv. solar increaseT – response per C warming
Cao et al, in prep.
C – response per CO2-doublingS – response per equiv. solar increaseT – response per C warming
Cao et al, in prep.
C – response per CO2-doublingS – response per equiv. solar increaseT – response per C warming
Cao et al, in prep.
Main effects- High CO2
- Lower temperature
Secondary effects- Changes in PAR- Changes in precip/evap
Not considered- Changes in UV- Diffuse radiation- Everything else
Trees Crops
Grasses
C4
Positive down
Mt. Pinatubo and global ozone
Mt. Pinatubo
Concluding suggestions• Consider consequences if people are
deploying measures thoughtfully
• Compare “geoengineered” state to both “natural” state of the system and the perturbed state in the absence of “geoengineering”