Introduction to Groundwater Modeling.pptx

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    Introduction to Groundwater Modelling

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    Presentation Outline

    Groundwater in Hydrologic Cycle

    Why Groundwater Modelling isneeded?

    Mathematical Models

    Modelling Protocol

    Model Design

    Calibration and Validation

    Groundwater Flow Models

    Groundwater Modelling esources

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    Groundwater in Hydrologic Cycle

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    Types of Terrestrial Water

    Ground water

    Soil

    Moisture

    SurfaceWater

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    Unsaturated Zone / Zone of Aeration / Vadose

    (Soil Water

    !ores "ull of Co#$ination of Air and Water

    Zone of Saturation (Ground water

    !ores "ull Co#pletely wit% Water

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    Groundwater

    portant source of clean water

    More a$undant t%an SW

    'ined to SW syste#s

    Sustains flows

    in strea#s

    )aseflow

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    pollution

    Groundwater Concerns*

    groundwater #ining

    su$sidence

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    Problems with groundwater

    Groundwater o!erdra"t # mining # subsidence

    Waterlogging

    $eawater intrusion

    Groundwater %ollution

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    W%y Groundwater Modelling is needed*

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    Groundwater

    &n im%ortant com%onent o" water resource systems'

    ()tracted "rom a*ui"ers through %um%ing wells and

    su%%lied "or domestic use+ industry and agriculture'

    With increased withdrawal o" groundwater+ the *uality

    o" groundwater has been continuously deteriorating'

    Water can be in,ected into a*ui"ers "or storage and#or

    *uality control %ur%oses'

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    Manage#ent of a groundwater syste#+ #eans

    #aing suc% decisionsas,

    -he total !olume that may be withdrawn annually "rom the a*ui"er'

    -he location o" %um%ing and arti"icial recharge wells+ and their

    rates'

    Decisions related to groundwater *uality'

    Groundwater conta#ination $y,

    Ha.ardous industrial wastes

    /eachate "rom land"ills

    &gricultural acti!ities such as the use o" "ertili.ers and %esticides

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    M&0&G(M(0-means ma1ing decisionsto achie!e goalswithout

    !iolating s%eci"ied constraints'

    Good management re*uires in"ormation on the res%onse o" the

    managed system to the %ro%osed acti!ities'

    -his in"ormation enables the decision2ma1er+ to com%are alternati!e

    actions and to ensure that constraints are not !iolated'

    &ny %lanning o" mitigation or control measures+ once contamination

    has been detected in the saturated or unsaturated .ones+ re*uires

    the %rediction o" the %ath and the "ate o" the contaminants+ in

    res%onse to the %lanned acti!ities'

    &ny monitoring or obser!ation networ1 must be based on the

    antici%ated beha!ior o" the system'

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    & tool is needed that will %ro!ide this in"ormation'

    -he tool "or understanding the system and its beha!ior

    and "or %redicting this res%onse is the #odel'

    3sually+ the model ta1es the "orm o" a set o"

    mathematical e*uations+ in!ol!ing one or more %artial

    di""erential e*uations' We re"er to such model as a

    mathematical model'

    -he %re"erred method o" solution o" the mathematicalmodel o" a gi!en %roblem is the analytical solution'

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    -he ad!antage o" the analytical solution is that the

    same solution can be a%%lied to !arious numerical!alues o" model coe""icients and %arameters'

    3n"ortunately+ "or most %ractical %roblems+ because o"

    the heterogeneity o" the considered domain+ the

    irregular sha%e o" its boundaries+ and the non2analytic

    "orm o" the !arious "unctions+ sol!ing the mathematical

    models analytically is not %ossible'

    Instead+ we trans"orm the mathematical model into anumerical one+ sol!ing it by means o" com%uter

    %rograms'

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    We should have a CALIBRATED MODELof the aquifer, especially,

    e should !"o the aquifer#s "atural reple"ish$e"t %fro$precipitatio" a"d throu&h aquifer 'ou"daries()

    *rior to deter$i"i"& the $a"a&e$e"t sche$e for a"yaquifer+

    We should have a *OLIC that dictates $a"a&e$e"t o'-ectives

    a"d co"strai"ts)

    O'viously, e also "eed i"for$atio" a'out the ater de$a"d%qua"tity a"d quality, curre"t a"d future(,i"teractio" ith other

    parts of the ater resources syste$, eco"o$ic i"for$atio", sources

    of pollutio", effect of cha"&es o" the e"viro"$e"t...spri"&s, rivers,)))

    The $odel ill provide the respo"se of the aquifer %ater levels,

    co"ce"tratio"s, etc)( to the i$ple$e"tatio" of a"y $a"a&e$e"t

    alter"ative)

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    G-.U0 WAT1- M.01'&G

    WH2 M.01'*

    -o ma1e %redictions about a ground2water

    system4s res%onse to a stress

    -o understand the system

    -o design "ield studies

    3se as a thin1ing tool

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    /se of 0rou"dater $odels

    Can be used for three general purposes:

    To predict or forecastexpected artificial

    or natural changes in the system.Predictive is more applied to deterministic

    models since it carries higher degree of

    certainty, while forecasting is used withprobabilistic (stochastic) models.

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    /se of 0rou"dater $odels

    To describethe system in order to analyse

    various assumptions

    Togenerate a hypothetical system thatwill be used to study principles of

    groundwater flow associated with various

    general or specific problems.

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    A'' G-.U03WAT1- H20-.'.G2 W.-4 &S M.01'&G

    A Model is a representation of a syste#5

    Modeling $egins w%en one for#ulates a concept of a

    %ydrologic syste#+continues wit% application of+ for e6a#ple+

    0arcy7s 'aw to t%e pro$le#+

    and #ay

    cul#inate in a co#ple6 nu#erical si#ulation5

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    Ground Water "low Modelling

    & Power"ul -ool"or "urthering our understanding

    o" hydrogeological systems

    Im%ortance o" understanding ground water "low models

    Construct accurate re%resentations o" hydrogeological systems

    3nderstand the interrelationshi%s between elements o"

    systems

    (""iciently de!elo% a sound mathematical re%resentation

    Ma1e reasonable assum%tions and sim%li"ications

    3nderstand the limitations o" the mathematical re%resentation

    3nderstand the limitations o" the inter%retation o" the results

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    &ntroduction to Ground Water "low Modelling

    K

    xqhxh 0)(

    !redicting %eads 5and "lows6and

    Appro6i#ating para#eters

    $olutionsto the "low e*uations

    Most ground water "low models are

    solutions o" some "orm o" the

    ground water "low e*uation

    !otentio#etricSurface

    )

    ))

    ho

    x0

    h(x)

    x

    K q

    7e'g'+ unidirectional+ steady2state "lowwithin a con"ined a*ui"er

    -he %artial di""erential e*uation needs

    to be sol!ed to calculate head as a

    "unction o" %osition and time+

    i'e'+ h8"5)+y+.+t6

    h5x,y,z,t6?

    K

    xqhhdx

    K

    qdh

    K

    q

    dx

    dh xh

    h

    000

    Darcy4s /aw Integrated

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    -he only e""ecti!e way to test e""ects o"

    groundwater management strategies

    -a1es time+ money to ma1e model

    Conce%tual model

    $teady state model

    -ransient model

    -he model is only as good as its calibration

    Groundwater Modeling

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    Processes we might want to model

    Groundwater "low

    calculate both heads and flow

    $olute trans%ort9 re*uires in"ormation

    on "low 5!elocities6 calculate concentrations

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    M.01'&G !-.C1SS

    A'' &M!.-TAT M1CHA&SMS 8 !-.C1SS1S MUST

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    T2!1S ." M.01'S

    C.C1!TUA' M.01'9UA'&TAT&V1

    01SC-&!T&. ." S2ST1M

    :a cartoon of t%e syste# in your #ind:

    MATH1MAT&CA' M.01'

    MATH1MAT&CA' 01SC-&!T&. ."

    S2ST1MS&M!'13 AA'2T&CA' (pro;ides a continuous solution o;er t%e #odel do#ain

    C.M!'1

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    Mat%e#atical Models

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    Mathematical model:

    simulates ground2water "low and#orsolute "ate and trans%ort indirectly by

    means o" a set o" go!erning e*uationsthought to re%resent the %hysical%rocesses that occur in the system'

    5&nderson and Woessner+ ;

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    Com%onents o" a Mathematical Model

    Go!erning (*uation

    5Darcy4s law > water balance e*uation6

    with head 5h6 as the de%endent !ariable

    oundary Conditions

    Initial conditions5"or transient

    %roblems6

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    ) y @

    y

    )

    .

    ;' Consider "lu) 5q6 through (V

    =' O3- 9 I0 8 2 $torage

    A' Combine with:q8 2B gradh

    *

    0eri;ation of t%e Go;erning 1=uation

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    'aw of Mass )alance> 0arcy?s 'aw @

    Go;erning 1=uation for Groundwater "low

    333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333

    divq8 2 $s 5ht6 (Law of Mass Balance)

    q8 2 4grad h (Darcys Law)

    div 54grad h6 8 $s 5ht6

    5$s 8 $ # .6

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    1(%(%(% =

    +

    +

    h!

    y

    h!

    yx

    h!

    xyx

    General go!erning e*uation

    "or steady2state+ heterogeneous+ anisotro%ic

    conditions+ without a source#sin1 term

    2(%(%(% "

    h!

    y

    h!

    yx

    h!

    xyx =

    +

    +

    with a source#sin1 term

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    2(%(%(% "

    t

    h#

    h!

    y

    h!

    yx

    h!

    x

    syx

    =

    +

    +

    General go!erning e*uation "or transient+

    heterogeneous+ and anisotro%ic conditions

    $%eci"ic $torage

    $s8 V # 5) y . h6

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    Figures ta1en "rom Hornberger et al' 5;

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    2(%(%(% "t

    h#

    h!

    y

    h!

    yx

    h!

    xsyx

    =

    +

    +

    "t

    h#

    y

    hT

    yx

    hT

    xyx

    =

    +

    (%(%

    "t

    h#

    y

    hh!

    yx

    hh!

    xyx

    =

    +

    (%(%

    =D con"ined:

    =D uncon"ined:

    $torage coe""icient 5$6 is either storati!ity or s%eci"ic yield'

    $ 8 $sb - 8 B b

    General AD e*uation

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    -y%es o" $olutions o" Mathematical Models

    &nalytical $olutions: h8 "5)+y+.+t6

    5e)am%le: -heis e*uation6

    0umerical $olutions

    Finite di""erence methods

    Finite element methods

    &nalytic (lement Methods 5&(M6

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    -he "le)ibility o" analytical modeling is

    limiteddue to sim%li"ying assum%tions:

    Homogeneity+ Isotro%y+ sim%le geometry+

    sim%le initial conditionsE

    Geology is inherently com%le):

    Heterogeneous+ anisotro%ic+ com%le)

    geometry+ com%le) conditionsE

    -his com%le)ity calls "or a more

    %ower"ul solution to the "low e*uation 0umerical modeling

    /imitations o" &nalytical Models

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    Numerical Methods

    h All numerical methods involverepresenting the flow domain by alimited number of discrete points called

    nodes.h A set of equations are then derived to

    relate the nodal values of thedependent variable such that they

    satisfy the governing PDE, eitherapproimately or eactly.

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    0umerical $olutions

    Discrete solution o" head at selected nodal %oints'

    In!ol!es numerical solution o" a set o" algebraic

    e*uations'

    Finite di""erence models5e'g'+ MODF/OW6

    Finite element models5e'g'+ $3-&6

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    "inite 0ifference Modelling

    A2D Finite Di""erence Models

    e*uires !ertical discreti.ation 5or layering6 o" model

    B;B=BA

    B

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    "inite 1le#ents, basis "unctions+ !ariational %rinci%le+ Galer1in4s method+ weighted residuals

    0odes %lus elements elements de"ined by nodes

    0odes located on "lu) boundaries

    Fle)ibility in grid design:

    elements sha%ed to boundaries

    elements "itted to ca%ture detail

    (asier to accommodate anisotro%y that occurs at an

    angle to the coordinate a)is

    &ble to simulate %oint sources#sin1s at nodes

    Pro%erties 5B+ $6 assigned to elements

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    In!ol!es su%er%osition o" analytic solutions' Heads are

    calculated in continuous s%ace using a com%uter to do

    the mathematics in!ol!ed in su%er%osition'

    Hybrid

    Analytic 1le#ent Met%od (A1M

    -he &( Method was introduced by Otto $trac1'

    & general %ur%ose code+ GF/OW+ was de!elo%ed by

    $trac14s student Hen1 Hait,ema+ who also wrote a

    te)tboo1 on the &( Method: Analytic Element Modeling

    of Groundwater Flow+ &cademic Press+ ;

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    What is a model?

    &ny 7de!iceJ that re%resents a%%ro)imation

    to "ield system

    Physical Models Mathematical Models

    &nalytical

    0umerical

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    Modelling Protocol

    (stablish the Pur%ose o" the Model De!elo% Conce%tual Model o" the $ystem $elect Go!erning (*uations and Com%uter Code Model Design

    Calibration Calibration $ensiti!ity &nalysis Model Veri"ication Prediction

    Predicti!e $ensiti!ity &nalysis Presentation o" Modeling Design and esults Post &udit Model edesign

    Purpose What questions do you want the

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    Purpose - What questions do you want the

    model to answer?

    Prediction $ystem Inter%retation Generic

    Modeling

    What do you want to learn "rom the model? Is a modeling e)ercise the best way to

    answer the *uestion? Historical data?

    Can an analytical model %ro!ide the answer?

    Syste# &nterpretation, &n;erse Modeling, Sensiti;ity

    Analysis

    Generic, Used in a %ypot%etical sense+ not necessarily

    for a real site

    Syste# &nterpretation, &n;erse Modeling, Sensiti;ity

    Analysis

    Generic, Used in a %ypot%etical sense+ not necessarily

    for a real site

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    Model Overkill?

    Is the !ast labor o" characteri.ing the system+combined with the !ast labor o" analy.ing it+disproportionateto the bene"its that "ollow?

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    E!"#$

    -here may be a chea%er+ more e""ecti!e

    a%%roach

    Warn o" limitations

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    #onceptual ModelEverything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler. Albert

    Einstein

    Pictorial re%resentation o" the groundwater

    "low system

    Will set the dimensions o" the model andthe design o" the grid

    7ParsimonyJE'conce%tual model has been

    sim%li"ied as much as %ossible yet retains

    enough com%le)ity so that it ade*uatelyre%roduces system beha!ior'

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    $elect #omputer #ode

    $elect Com%uter Model Code Veri"ication

    Com%arison to &nalytical $olutions Other

    0umerical Models Model Design

    Design o" Grid+ selecting time ste%s+

    boundary and initial conditions+ %arameter

    data set

    Steady/Unsteady55+ B+ or 30D E

    Heterogeneous/&sotropicE55&nstantaneous/Continuous

    Steady/Unsteady55+ B+ or 30D E

    Heterogeneous/&sotropicE55&nstantaneous/Continuous

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    #ali%ration

    $how that Model can re%roduce "ield2

    measured heads and "low 5concentrations i"

    contaminant trans%ort6

    esults in %arameter data set that best

    re%resents "ield2measured conditions'

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    #ali%ration $ensitivity &nalysis

    3ncertainty in In%ut Conditions

    Determine (""ect o" 3ncertainty on

    Calibrated Model

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    Model 'eri(ication

    3se Model to e%roduce a $econd $et o"

    Field Data

    Prediction Desired $et o" Conditions

    $ensiti!ity &nalysis (""ect o" uncertainty in %arameter !alues and

    "uture stresses on the %redicted solution

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    Presentation o( Modelling

    )esign and *esults (""ecti!e Communication o"

    Modeling (""ort

    Gra%hs+ -ables+ -e)t etc'

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    Postaudit

    0ew "ield data collected to

    determine i" %rediction was correct

    $ite2s%eci"ic data needed to

    !alidate model "or s%eci"ic sitea%%lication

    Model *edesign

    Include new insights into system

    beha!ior

    UM1-&CA' M.01'&G

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    UM1-&CA' M.01'&G

    0&SC-1T&Z1

    Write e=uations of GW "low $etween eac% node

    0arcy7s 'aw

    Conser;ation of Mass

    0efine Material !roperties

    )oundary Conditions

    &nitial Conditions

    Stresses

    At eac% node eit%er H or 9 is nown+t%e ot%er is unnownn e=uations 8 n unnowns

    sol;e si#ultaneously wit% #atri6 alge$ra

    -esult H at eac% nown 9 node

    9 at eac% nown H node

    Cali$rate Steady State

    Transient

    Validate

    Sensiti;ity

    !redictions

    Si#ilar !rocess for Transport Modeling only Concentration and "lu6 is unnown

    UM1-&CA' M.01'&G

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    UM1-&CA' M.01'&G

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    Model 0esign

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    M.01's 110

    Geo#etry

    Material !roperties (4+ S+ T+ Fe+ -+ etc5

    )oundary Conditions (Head+ "lu6+ Concentration etc5

    Stress 3 c%anging $oundary condition

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    Model Desi&"

    Conceptual Model

    Selection of Computer Code

    Model Geometry

    Grid

    Boundary array

    Model Parameters

    Boundary Conditions Initial Conditions

    Stresses

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    Co"cept Develop$e"t

    $eveloping a conceptual model is the initial

    and most importantpart of every modelling

    effort. %t re&uires thorough understanding ofhydrogeology, hydrology and dynamics of

    groundwater flow.

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    Conceptual Model

    A descriptive representationof a groundwater system that

    incorporates an interpretation of thegeological & hydrological conditions.Generally includes information about

    the water budget. May includeinformation on water chemistry.

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    3electio" of Co$puter Code

    'hich method will be used depends largely

    on the type of problem and the nowledge of

    the model design. low, solute, heat, density dependent etc.

    *$, +$, $

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    Model 0eo$etry

    -odel geometry defines the sie and the

    shape of the model. %t consists of model

    boundaries, both external and internal, andmodel grid.

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    Bou"daries

    Physical boundariesare well defined

    geologic and hydrologic features that

    permanently influence the pattern ofgroundwater flow (faults, geologic units,

    contact with surface water etc.)

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    Bou"daries

    Hydraulic boundariesare derived from the

    groundwater flow net and therefore

    artificial/ boundaries set by the modeldesigner. They can be no flow boundaries

    represented by chosen stream lines, or

    boundaries with nown hydraulic headrepresented by e&uipotential lines.

    H20-AU'&C ).U0A-&1S

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    & streamline5"lowline6 is also a

    hydraulic boundary because by

    de"inition+ "low is &/W&K$%arallel to a stream"low' It can

    also be said that "low 0(V(

    crosses a streamline there"ore it

    is similar to an IMP(M(&/(

    5no "low6 boundary

    )UT

    $tress can change the "low

    %attern and shi"t the %osition o"streamlines there"ore care must

    be ta1en when using a

    streamline as the outer boundary

    o" a model'

    T2!1S ." M.01' ).U0A-2

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    .3"'.W ).U0A-2

    0either H(&D nor F/3 is

    $%eci"ied' Can re%resent a

    Physical boundary or a "low

    /ine 5Groundwater Di!ide6

    S!1C&"&10 H1A0 .-

    C.STAT H1A0 ).U0A-2

    h 8 constant

    * is determined by the model'

    &nd may be >!e or 9!e accordingto the hydraulic gradient de!elo%ed

    T2!1S ." M.01' ).U0A-2 (cont?d

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    (

    S!1C&"&10 "'U< ).U0A-2

    * 8 constant

    h is determined by the model

    5-he common method o" simulation

    is to use one in,ection well "or each

    boundary cell6

    H1A0 01!10AT ).U0A-2

    hb8 constant

    * 8 c 5hb9 hm6

    and c 8 " 5B+/6 and is called

    CO0D3C-&0C(hmis determined by the model and

    its interaction with hb

    )oundary Types

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    Specified Head/Concentration, a special case of constant %ead (A)C+ 1"G

    Constant Head /Concentration, could replace (A)C+ 1"G

    Specified "lu6, could $e rec%arge across (C0

    o "low (Strea#line, a special case of specified flu6 (H&

    Head 0ependent "lu6, could replace (A)C+ 1"G

    "ree Surface, water3ta$le+ p%reatic surface (C0

    Seepage "ace, pressure @ at#osp%eric at ground surface (01

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    Bou"dary co"ditio"s i" Modflo

    Constant head boundary

    0ead dependent flux "iver Pacage

    $rain Pacage 1eneral2head 3oundary Pacage

    !nown lux "echarge

    4vapotranspiration

    'ells #tream

    5o low boundaries

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    I"itial Co"ditio"s

    6alues of the hydraulic head for each activeand constant2head cell in the model. They

    must be higher than the elevation of the cellbottom.

    or transient simulation, heads to resembleclosely actual heads (realistic).

    or steady state, only hydraulic heads inconstant head2cell must be realistic.

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    Model *ara$eters

    Time

    #pace (layer top and bottom)

    0ydrogeologic characteristics(hydraulic conductivity, transmissivity,

    storage parameters and effective porosity)

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    Ti$e

    Time parameters are specified when

    modelling transient (time dependent)

    conditions. They include time unit, lengthand number of time steps.

    7ength of stress periods is not relevant for

    steady state simulations

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    0rid

    %n inite $ifference model, the grid is

    formed by two sets of parallel lines that are

    orthogonal. The blocs formed by theselines are called cells. %n the centre of each

    cell is the node 8 the point at which the

    model calculates hydraulic head. This type

    of grid is called bloc2centered grid.

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    0rid

    1rid mesh can be uniform or custom, a

    uniform grid is better choice when

    4venly distributed a&uifer characteristics data The entire flow field is e&ually important

    5umber of cells and sie is not an issue

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    0rid

    1rid mesh can be custom when

    There is less or no data for certain areas

    There is specific interest in one or more smaller

    areas

    1rid orientation is not an issue in isotropic

    a&uifers. 'hen the a&uifer is anisotropic,

    the model coordinate axes must be alignedwith the main axes of the hydraulic

    conductivity.

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    -egular ;s irregular grid spacing

    Irregular s%acing may be used to obtain

    detailed head distributions in selected areas

    o" the grid'

    Finite di""erence e*uations that use irregular

    grid s%acing ha!e a higher associated error

    than FD e*uations that use regular grid s%acing'

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    Cur!ature o" the water table

    Vertical change in head

    Variability o" a*ui"er characteristics 5B+-+$6

    Variability o" hydraulic %arameters 5+ @6

    Considerations in selecting t%e sie of

    t%e grid spacing

    Desired detail around sources and sin1s 5e'g'+ ri!ers6

    M.01' G-&0S

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    M.01' G-&0S

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    !rids

    h "t is generally agreed that from a practicalpoint#of#view the differences between gridtypes are minor and unimportant.

    h $%!% M&D'(&) employs a body#centred grid.

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    Bou"dary array %cell type(

    Three types of cells

    %nactive cells through which no flow into or out

    of the cells occurs during the entire time ofsimulation.

    9ctive, or variable2head cells are free to vary in

    time.

    Constant2head cell, model boundaries with

    nown constant head.

    4 d li d i i d

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    4ydraulic co"ductivity a"d

    tra"s$issivity

    0ydraulic conductivity is the most criticaland sensitive modelling parameter.

    "ealistic values of storage coefficient andtransmissivity, preferably from pumping test,

    should be used.

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    Effective porosity

    "e&uired to calculate velocity, used mainlyin solute transport models

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    Cali$ration and Validation

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    Calibration %arametersare uncertain %arameters

    whose !alues are ad,usted during model calibration'

    -y%ical calibration %arameters include hydraulic

    conducti!ity and recharge rate'

    Identi"y calibration %arameters and their reasonable

    ranges'

    In a real2world %roblem+ we need to establish model

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    Calibration -argets

    cali$ration;alue

    associated error

    =L'= m

    +/L'L m

    -arget with relati!ely

    large associated error'

    -arget with smallerassociated error'

    s%eci"ic calibration criteria and de"ine targets including

    associated error'

    -argets used in Model Calibration

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    Head measured in an obser!ation well is 1nownas a target'

    -argets used in Model Calibration

    -he simulated head at the node re%resenting the

    obser!ation well is com%ared with the measured

    head'

    During model calibration+ %arameter !alues are

    ad,usted until the simulated head matches the

    obser!ed !alue'

    Model calibration sol!es the in!erse %roblem'

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    Cali'ratio" to 5lu6es

    Whe" rechar&e rate %R( is a cali'ratio"

    para$eter, cali'rati"& to flu6es ca" help i"esti$ati"& 7 a"d8or R)

    In this example flux information

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    K = ?

    H; H=

    * 8 BI

    In this example, flux informationhelps calibrate .

    In this example discharge

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    R = ?

    In this example, dischargeinformation helps calibrate !.

    Calibration 2 emar1s

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    Calibration emar1s

    Calibrations are non2uni*ue'

    & good calibration does not ensure that

    the model will ma1e good %redictions'

    0eed "or an uncertainty analysisto accom%any

    calibration results and %redictions'

    Kou can ne!er ha!e enough "ield

    data' Modelers need to maintain a healthy s1e%ticism

    about their results'

    3ncertainty in the Calibration

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    3ncertainty in the Calibration

    In!ol!es uncertainty in:

    Parameter !alues

    Conce%tual model including boundary conditions+

    .onation+ geometry etc'

    -argets

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    Ways to analy.e uncertainty

    in the calibration

    $ensiti!ity analysisis used as an uncertainty

    analysis a"ter calibration'

    3se an in!erse model 5automated calibration6

    to *uanti"y uncertainties and o%timi.e the

    calibration'

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    3ncertainty in the Prediction

    In!ol!es uncertainty in how %arameter !alues

    5e'g'+ recharge6 will !ary in the "uture'

    e"lects uncertainty in the calibration'

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    $tochastic

    simulation

    Ways to *uanti"y uncertainty

    in the %rediction

    $ensiti!ity analysis

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    Model Validation

    How do we 7!alidateJ a model so that

    we ha!e con"idence that it will ma1eaccurate %redictions?

    Modeling C%ronology

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    Modeling C%ronology

    ;

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    7-he ob,ecti!e o" #odel ;alidationis to

    determine how well the mathematical

    re%resentation o" the %rocesses describes

    the actual system beha!ior in terms o" thedegree o" correlation between model

    calculations and actual measured dataJ'

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    How to $uild confidence in a #odel

    Calibration 5history matching6

    7Veri"icationJ

    re*uires an inde%endent set o" "ield data

    Post2&udit: re*uires waiting "or %rediction to occur

    Models as interacti!e management tools

    411!&G A .!1 M&0

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    411!&G A .!1 M&0

    Consider all di#ensions of t%e pro$le# $efore co#ing

    to a conclusion5

    Considering all t%e stresses t%at #ig%t $e i#posed and

    all t%e possi$le processes t%at #ig%t $e in;ol;ed in a

    situation $efore reac%ing a conclusion5

    411!&G A .!1 M&0 is spending IJ of your

    T&M1 01T1-M&&G WHAT 2.U TH&4 &S HA!!1&G

    and only IJ of your T&M1 01"10&G 2.U- .!&&.5

    AV.&0 t%e co##on %u#an T-A! of -1V1-S&G

    TH.S1 !1-C1TAG1S5

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    Groundwater "low Models

    Groundwater Flow Models

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    Groundwater Flow Models

    The most widely used numerical roundwater flow model isM!"F#!$ which is a three%dimensional model& oriinallyde'eloped y the *S* Geoloical Sur'ey*

    It uses finite difference scheme for saturated +one*

    The ad'antaes of M!"F#!$ include numerous facilitiesfor data preparation& easy e,chane of data in standardform& e,tended worldwide e,perience& continuousde'elopment& a'ailaility of source code& and relati'ely lowprice*

    -owe'er& surface runoff and unsaturated flow are notincluded& hence in case of transient prolems& M!"F#!$can not e applied if the flu, at the roundwater taledepends on the calculated head and the function is not.nown in ad'ance*

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    M.0"'.W

    USGS code

    "inite 0ifference Model

    M.0"'.W KK

    M.0"'.W L M.0"'.W B

    M!"F#!$

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    (Three%"imensional Finite%"ifference Ground%$ater Flow

    Model)

    $hen properly applied& M!"F#!$ is the reconi+ed

    standard model*

    Ground%water flow within the a/uifer is simulated in

    M!"F#!$ usin a loc.%centered finite%difference

    approach*

    #ayers can e simulated as confined& unconfined& or a

    comination of oth*

    Flows from e,ternal stresses such as flow to wells& areal

    rechare& e'apotranspiration& flow to drains& and flow

    throuh ri'ereds can also e simulated*

    MT0"

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    (1 Modular 0" Solute Transport Model)

    MT0" is a comprehensi'e three%dimensional numerical

    model for simulatin solute transport in comple,

    hydroeoloic settins*

    MT0" is lin.ed with the SGS roundwater flow simulator&

    M!"F#!$& and is desined specifically to handle

    ad'ecti'ely%dominated transport prolems without the needto construct refined models specifically for solute transport*

    F2F#!$

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    (Finite 2lement Susurface Flow System)

    F2F#!$ is a finite%element pac.ae for simulatin 0" and 3"

    fluid density%coupled flow& contaminant mass (salinity) and

    heat transport in the susurface*

    -ST0"

    (0%" -eat and Solute Transport Model)

    The -eat and Solute Transport Model -ST0" simulates

    round%water flow and associated heat and solute transport in

    three dimensions*

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    S21$1T

    (Three%"imensional 4ariale%"ensity Ground%$ater Flow)

    The S21$1T proram was de'eloped to simulate three%

    dimensional& 'ariale% density& transient round%water flowin porous media*

    The source code for S21$1T was de'eloped y cominin

    M!"F#!$and MT0"into a sinle proram that sol'esthe coupled flow and solute%transport e/uations*

    ST51

    http://water.usgs.gov/software/modflow-88.htmlhttp://hydro.geo.ua.edu/mt3d/mt3dhome.htmhttp://hydro.geo.ua.edu/mt3d/mt3dhome.htmhttp://water.usgs.gov/software/modflow-88.html
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    (3%" Saturated6nsaturated Transport Model)

    ST51 is a 3" roundwater saturated%unsaturated

    transport model& a complete saltwater intrusion and enery

    transport model*

    ST51 employs a two%dimensional hyrid finite%element

    and interated finite%difference method to appro,imate the

    o'ernin e/uations that descrie the two interdependent

    processes*

    1 0%" 'ersion of ST51 has also een released*

    S$IM

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    (Soil water infiltration and mo'ement model)

    S$IM'7 is a software pac.ae for simulatin water

    infiltration and mo'ement in soils*

    S$IM'3 is a mechanistically%ased model desined to

    address soil water and solute alance issues*

    The model deals with a one%dimensional 'ertical soil

    profile which may e 'ertically inhomoeneous ut is

    assumed to e hori+ontally uniform*

    It can e used to simulate runoff& infiltration&redistriution& solute transport and redistriution of

    solutes& plant upta.e and transpiration& e'aporation& deep

    drainae and leachin*

    4IS1# -2#P

    (M d li 2 i t f 2 l ti d ! ti i i

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    (Modelin 2n'ironment for 2'aluatin and !ptimi+in

    #andfill "esins)

    4isual -2#P is an ad'anced hydroloical modelin

    en'ironment a'ailale for desinin landfills& predictin

    leachate moundin and e'aluatin potential leachate

    contamination*

    4isual M!"F#!$

    (Interated Modelin 2n'ironment for M!"F#!$ and

    MT0")

    4isual M!"F#!$ pro'ides professional 0" roundwater

    flow and contaminant transport modelin usin

    M!"F#!$ and MT0"*

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    Groundwater Modelling -esources

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    Groundwater Modeling esources

    Bumar /in1s to Hydrology esourceshtt%:##www'angel"ire'com#nh#c%1umar#hydrology'html

    3$G$ Water esources $o"tware Page

    water'usgs'go!#so"tware

    ichard ' Winston4s Home Pagewww'minds%ring'com#rbwinston#rbwinsto'htm

    Geotech Geoen!iron $o"tware Directorywww'ggsd'com

    International Ground Water Modeling Centerwww'mines'edu#igwmc

    Ground Water Modelling Discussion Grou%

    http://www.mines.edu/igwmchttp://www.mines.edu/igwmc
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    Ground Water Modelling Discussion Grou%

    &n email discussion grou% related to ground water modelling and

    analysis' -his grou% is a "orum "or the communication o" all as%ects

    o" ground water modelling including technical discussions

    announcement o" new %ublic domain and commercial so"twares calls

    "or abstracts and %a%ers con"erence and wor1sho% announcementsand summaries o" research results+ recent %ublications+ and case

    studies'

    Grou% home %age : htt%:##grou%s'yahoo'com#grou%#gwmodel#

    Post message : gwmodelQyahoogrou%s'com$ubscribe : gwmodel2subscribeQyahoogrou%s'com

    3nsubscribe : gwmodel2unsubscribeQyahoogrou%s'com

    /ist owner : gwmodel2ownerQyahoogrou%s'com

    Visual MODF/OW 3sers Grou%

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    Visual MODF/OW is a %ro!en standard "or %ro"essional AD

    groundwater "low and contaminant trans%ort modeling using

    MODF/OW2=LLL+ MODP&-H+ M-ADM$ &0D -AD' Visual

    MODF/OW seamlessly combines the standard Visual MODF/OW

    %ac1age with Win P($- and the Visual MODF/OW AD2()%lorer to gi!e

    a com%lete and %ower"ul gra%hical modeling en!ironment'

    -his grou% aims to %ro!ide a "orum "or e)change o" ideas and

    e)%eriences regarding use and a%%lication o" Visual MODF/OW

    so"tware'

    Grou% home %age : htt%:##in'grou%s'yahoo'com#grou%#!isual2mod"low#

    Post message : !isual2mod"lowQyahoogrou%s'co'in

    $ubscribe : !isual2mod"low2subscribeQyahoogrou%s'co'in

    3nsubscribe : !isual2mod"low2unsubscribeQyahoogrou%s'co'in

    /ist owner : !isual2mod"low2ownerQyahoogrou%s'co'in

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    "A##$ M%'((I)G

    -H&0B$