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International symposium “Toward constructing earthquake forecast systems for Japan” 27 May 2009 at ERI, Univ. Tokyo. Introduction to “Toward constructing earthquake forecast systems for Japan”. Haoshi Hirata (ERI, Univ. of Tokyo). National earthquake prediction research programs in Japan. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Introduction to “Toward constructing earthquake forecast systems for Japan”
Haoshi Hirata (ERI, Univ. of Tokyo)
International symposium “Toward constructing earthquake forecast systems for Japan”
27 May 2009 at ERI, Univ. Tokyo
National earthquake prediction research programs in Japan Selected focuses of the previous programs (1999-
2008) : “new national resaearch programs”- Understanding of physical and chemical processes leading to an
earthquake- Observation for real time monitoring of crust and mantle activities- Forecast simulation technology- Developing new technologies such as an ocean bottom
observations Based on these activities, a new focus of the
current program (2009-2013)- Create “earthquake forecast systems” for Japan
• Quantitatively forecast time, place, and magnitude for forthcoming earthquakes
Earthquake forecast system Framework to test forecast
accuracy- Project: Earthquake Forecast
System based on Seismicity of Japan• Buildup existing testable
forecast models• Create the framework that can
“rigorously test” such models• Explore the possibility of next-
generation testable models• Others• http://wwweic.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
ZISINyosoku
Front page
Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP)
Next talk by D. Schorlemmer http://www.cseptesting.org/ ERI joined the CSEP project
Front page
CSEP Testing Center at ERI Installed last summer by D.
Schorlemmer & F. Euchner- Quantitative testing of earthquake forecast
models
The earthquake forecast testing experiment is carried out this year
- Use the existing Testing Center - Call for
• Testable models• Testing regions• Evaluation methods
- TODAY: Mutual understanding among the experiment participants
Tripple-S ALM RI
Program Existing Testing Center for Japan Proposed testable models & evaluation methods Exploring the possibility of next-generation testable
models- GPS, seismo-electromagnetism, data assimilation, and seismicity
Panel discussion on the testing experiment