IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Welcome to Structured Decision-Making for General Aviation Pilots Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary This program will give you step-by-step methods to use when confronted with ill- defined in-flight problems. Sometimes these decisions must be made very quickly, but in most cases there is time to analyze the situation, work through the problem, and make a safe decision. You will learn to: Think through the situation Form accurate judgments Solve the problems Make safer decisions Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter Highly experienced pilots make many of their decisions using a process called "Recognition-Primed Decision Making." This process allows the pilots to call upon their extensive experience base to rapidly match new situations to ones that occurred previously. They can then use the solution that worked in the past to deal with this new problem. This is a very fast and effective decision-making process. However, inexperienced pilots do not have that extensive set of experiences to draw upon. Therefore, they must use a more structured approach to problem solving and decision-making. Using the structured decision-making process described in this training will help you make good, safe decisions while you gain the experiences necessary to use the faster Recognition-Primed Decision Making process.

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary How does judgment affect safety? Click on the number of fatal general aviation accidents you think have occurred each year on average. Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter 100200300400500600

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary What percentage of fatal accidents were caused by pilot error? Click on the percentage of fatal general aviation accidents you think were caused by pilot error. Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter 10%20%40%60%80%90%

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary What percentage of fatal pilot error accidents were caused by faulty aircraft control? Click on the percentage of fatal pilot error accidents you think were caused by faulty aircraft control. Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter 10%20%40%60%80%90%

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary What percentage of fatal pilot error accidents were caused by poor judgment? Click on the percentage of fatal pilot error accidents you think were caused by poor pilot judgment. Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter 10%20%40%60%80%90%

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Developing the skills needed to use good judgment will increase safety among pilots Click on one of these three statements. Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter I know that I used good judgment when everything came out okay. I know that I used good judgment when I used a systematic thought process to make a decision. I know that I used good judgment when I did the right thing.

You Chose: Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter I know that I used good judgment when everything came out okay. I know that I used good judgment when I used a systematic thought process to make a decision. I know that I used good judgment when I did the right thing. You might as well be flying blind. Making decisions based on instinct alone will only carry you so far. There are several factors that influence successful flights. Your goal is to make good judgments all the time and understand why your choices are sound judgments. Continue

You Chose: Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter A systematic thought process sounds good on the surface, but some decisions require ingenuity and flexibility. Having a mental checklist of steps to consider when assessing a situation is a very good idea, but you must be aware of the big picture and be able to incorporate the routine of a checklist into the fluid aspects of the big picture. This will help you make the right decisions in the air. I know that I used good judgment when everything came out okay. I know that I used good judgment when I used a systematic thought process to make a decision. I know that I used good judgment when I did the right thing. Continue

You Chose: Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter Doing the right thing may not always involve good judgment. Situational Awareness, attention to details, a correct analysis of the problem, and selecting and executing the right combination of fixes will help to keep you flying safely. I know that I used good judgment when everything came out okay. I know that I used good judgment when I used a systematic thought process to make a decision. I know that I used good judgment when I did the right thing. Continue

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Click on the statement best describes how you handled an in-flight problem. Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter A. Used a process of elimination B. Used a similar past experience C. Used a step-by-step process D. Made an immediate decision, without thinking

You chose: A. Used a process of elimination The process of elimination was just the beginning when it came to solving your problem. You thought through the situation and eliminated the extraneous factors. You then formed an opinion, made some decisions, and vowed to prevent more problems from arising. The proper strategy for handling an in-flight problem is: Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter CONTINUE Think through the situation Form accurate judgments. Execute the right decisions. Anticipate future events.

You chose: B. Used a similar past experience Past experiences are quite valuable in bringing our minds up to speed on a problem. You must, however, keep your mind open to differences between the problem you are currently facing and the one you overcame at an earlier time. A formula or verbatim response to an in-flight problem could be deadly if you fail to recognize a new wrinkle to the situation. The proper strategy for handling an in-flight problem is: Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter Think through the situation Form accurate judgments. Execute the right decisions. Anticipate future events. CONTINUE

You chose: C. Used a step-by-step process Established rules and checklists are important strategies for handling any in-flight emergency. However, sometimes situations veer from the usual process and you have to improvise. You must thoroughly evaluate the problem before you can fix it. The proper strategy for handling an in-flight problem is: Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter Think through the situation Form accurate judgments. Execute the right decisions. Anticipate future events. CONTINUE

You chose: D. Made an immediate decision, without thinking You are lucky to be alive. The proper strategy for handling an in-flight problem is: Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter Think through the situation Form accurate judgments. Execute the right decisions. Anticipate future events. CONTINUE

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter Situational Awareness Plane - condition, performance, systems Path - route, position, weather, airspace People - pilot, passengers, ATC

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Which method do you think is best for maintaining situational awareness? Click on your choice. Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter A. Scan the entire environment B. Focus on specific details. C. A combination of A and B.

You chose: A. Scan the entire environment Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter CONTINUE You are partly correct. You need to continuously pay attention to the entire environment, both inside and outside the cockpit. But you also need to periodically check the details, such as the instrumentation The correct answer is C - Scan and Focus.

You chose: B. Focus on specific details. Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter CONTINUE You are partly correct. You need to continuously pay attention to the entire environment, both inside and outside the cockpit. But you also need to periodically check the details, such as the instrumentation. The correct answer is C - Scan and Focus.

You chose: C. A combination of A and B. Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter CONTINUE Congratulations. You are correct. The best way to maintain Situational Awareness is to continuously scan and monitor the entire in-flight environment and to periodically check details such as instrumentation.

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Situational Awareness Focusing only on details and losing the big picture can have severe consequences. Look at this video reenactment of an actual crash in which loss of situational awareness played a major factor. Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter [You must be connected to the internet for this video to play.]

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Situational Awareness Scan, monitor, and keep the big picture. Periodically focus on the details. Don't get sidetracked. Anticipate and prepare for future events Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Situational Awareness Remember, situational awareness is a process of continuous evaluation. Click on the video, and we'll see how two pilots take very different approaches to dealing with an ill-defined, in- flight problem. Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter [You must be connected to the internet for this video to play.]

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Diagnosis Diagnosis allows you to: Know that is happening Investigate the effects of various actions. Fall back on previous flight experience. Think of a novel solution. Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Diagnosis Click on the video, and we'll see how Ben and Cathy go about diagnosing their in- flight problem. Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter [You must be connected to the internet for this video to play.]

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary During the diagnosis, Cathy did ALL of the following: A. Gathered new information B. Maintained control C. Attempted to solve the problem D. Sought outside assistance E. Kept safe options open F. Summarized the situation Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Diagnosis During diagnosis of a problem Gather new information Maintain control Attempt to solve the problem Seek outside assistance Keep safe options open Summarize the situation Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Resolution Click on the video to see how Ben and Cathy resolved their problems. Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter [You must be connected to the internet for this video to play.]

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Resolution Did you see what Cathy did as she resolved her problem? She used each of the steps listed here. Go back and look at the video again, if you don't recognize some of the steps. Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter A. Gathered new information B. Summarized the situation C. Looked for alternatives D. Assessed the risks

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Scenarios You have seen how Ben and Kathy reacted to their in-flight problems. Ben made a knee-jerk, instinctive decision, and then failed to make any further efforts to diagnose the problem, minimize the risks, or further evaluate his decision. However, Kathy used a much better decision process in which she kept working to obtain additional information, confirming her diagnosis and refining her plan throughout the flight. Now let's look at two more scenarios and see how the SDRV process could be applied. In each of these scenarios think of how you would apply the SDRV process. What would you do in these situations? Obviously this would be more effective if we could put you in a simulator and present the scenarios there. But, just reading and thinking through these situations and how you would apply the Situation Awareness - Diagnosis - Resolution- Vigilance process may be very beneficial. Here are two scenarios requiring some in-flight decision-making. Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter VFR Scenario IFR Scenario

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter VFR Scenario Condition - You have just completed your before landing checklist for arrival at your destination. After selecting gear down, you notice that the in-transit light remains illuminated and you only get one green light on your gear position indicator. You have 45 minutes of fuel remaining in your aircraft. SITUATIONAL AWARENESS (plane, path, people) Plane - Cessna 182RG Path - Your destination airport is uncontrolled and has a runway which is 2400 ft long, with a 50 ft obstacle on either end. Winds are currently in line with the runway in-use at 15, gusting to 25 knots. People - You are well rested and in good health. You have no passengers onboard. An observer on the ground at your destination has visually verified that your main gear is not coming down. Commentary: The main objective here is to keep an emergency from becoming a disaster. If you were maintaining good situational awareness during your flight, you should be aware of other airports in the vicinity that might offer better facilities for a potential gear-up landing. You might also be aware of any other resources, such as the phone number of the FBO that maintains your aircraft. It is always possible that this has happened before (assuming this is a rental aircraft), and that the FBO could suggest a solution.

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter VFR Scenario DIAGNOSIS Info - You have followed the prescribed emergency procedure and there is no change in the position of your landing gear. Your map indicates that you are approximately 60 miles from the next suitable airfield. It is controlled, and has a paved runway 5000 ft in length. ATC is willing to provide radar vectors to the alternate airport if necessary. Contacting them confirms the 60 NM distance. FSS indicates that your potential alternate airport is open, no NOTAMS are on file, and the field is VFR. Commentary: While the diagnosis seems clear in this case (the gear won't come down), the reason for that failure has yet to be determined. You may wish to investigate further later, but for now the main question is whether to land here, or to fly to the controlled airfield. What are your considerations? First, do you have the fuel required to make it to the other airfield? Second, what are the advantages and disadvantages of landing there, as opposed to landing here? The wind is in your favor here, blowing down the runway, so that your touchdown speed will be decreased. However, most uncontrolled airports have little in the way of emergency equipment. Can you think of some other factors to be considered?

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter Vigilance Once you have made your decision, carry it out, but continue to monitor the situation closely. Maintain a heightened situational awareness for any changes in the weather or in your aircraft -- perhaps the gear failure was just part of some other problem. Reassess conditions regularly, referring to instrumentation, weather data, etc. Maintain contact with ATC. Keep your options open, manage remaining risks and eliminate as necessary. Commentary: If you elect to fly to the further airport, you might use that time to further diagnose the gear problem. Check the circuit breakers one more time. Did the observer on the ground indicate that the gear was partially extended -- perhaps just hanging loose? Maybe putting the aircraft into a shallow dive and pulling a couple of Gs will make the gear drop into place and lock. Have you alerted the tower at the further airport that you would like the emergency equipment standing by? If you decided to land at the nearer airport, did you ask the CTAF ground operator to call the fire department? What else could you do to further minimize the risks of a gear-up landing at either airport or to possibly solve the gear problem? Finally, are you keeping control of the aircraft? A gear-up landing need not be a tragedy -- except for the insurance company. Landing short because you killed the engine to try and save the prop could be a fatal mistake. Go to the IFR Scenario

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter IFR Scenario Conditions: You have just noticed a light smoke/strong odor of melting plastic originating from behind the instrument panel SITUATIONAL AWARENESS (plane, path, people) Plane - Cessna 172 equipped with dual Nav/Coms, IFR panel Path - You are currently at 7,000 Ft (MEA), 105 KIAS, tracking a course of 015. The time is 2300, Fall Season. You are on a IFR flight plan. Instrument Meteorological Conditions are prevailing. The freezing level is 9,000 Ft. Your destination is approximately 30 minutes away. Your routing takes you over mountainous terrain. People - You are well rested and in good health. Your passengers are your immediate family. They are becoming agitated by the presence of the smoke and odor. ATC (Washington Center) is currently unaware of your problem. There is light traffic on the frequency. When available, you notify them of your condition. Commentary: Well, this is certainly a nasty situation. You are in the clouds at night over mountainous terrain, and something is burning behind the instrument panel. Before you go on to the next screen, stop and think about how you would react to this situation. The key here is not to let an emergency turn into a disaster. This could just be a minor melt-down of some component, but if you lose control of the aircraft in the clouds or try to make a night landing on some unlit mountain road, things could go from bad to fatal very quickly.

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter Diagnosis Gather Info - Engine and other instruments appear normal. You have followed the prescribed emergency procedure and there is no change in the presence of light smoke and burning odor. After performing the emergency procedure, you turn your Master/Avionics Master switches On intermittently so that you can keep at least one NAV/COM radio operation. You have tried switching between both radios. All other non-essential electrical items are OFF. Communicate --ATC indicates that your nearest airport is 18 NM, heading 180. Current weather there is 1 mile visibility ceiling 100 Ft, Variable 300 Ft. Your lowest approach minimum at this airport is 1/2 mile and 200 Ft AGL. Your destination airport is 60 NM, heading 020. Weather there is VFR. There are no forecasted changes in weather at either airport for the immediate future. ATC is standing by for your decision. FSS - Flight Service can only confirm weather information already provided by ATC. Commentary: You've followed the book, and hopefully you have cut off the power to whatever it is that is melting. Since you are in the clouds at night, you will certainly have to keep power occasionally to one of the radios so that you will know where you are. Is there anything else you can think of to do? Have you added any new equipment recently? Maybe something has come loose there.

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Resolution Please choose a course of action Commentary: Have you carefully considered the pros and cons of each action? Have you taken into consideration not just the condition of the aircraft, but your own personal condition? That is, are you sufficiently cool, calm, and collected to execute a landing to minimums at night under these conditions? Be honest! If you have never done this before, do you want to try it now under these conditions? On the other hand, if you go toward VFR weather and the alternate airport, you are gambling that the electrical problem does not get worse. If that happens, are you prepared to do an emergency landing at night in this terrain? Think about how you could minimize the risks for both of these alternatives. Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter 1. Go to the nearest airport 2. Continue towards the original destination 3. Continue towards VFR weather, execute a forced landing if necessary

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter IFR Scenario -- Vigilance Regardless of which alternative you chose, your task now is to Assess and Manage remaining risks, while maintaining good situational awareness. Commentary: What are the risks at this point? Obviously, the one foremost in your mind is the possibility of a fire in the cockpit, and you are doing everything you can to minimize that risk. But, there are also the risks of simply being in the clouds at night in a very stressful situation. Are you maintaining control of the aircraft? Are you holding your course toward the airport you selected? What about your altitude over those mountains? It would be really tragic if you flew into terrain and the accident investigation board later determined that the cockpit smoke was caused by some minor problem that you fixed when you cut off the non-essential power. Have you located the fire extinguisher and do you have one of the passengers holding it, ready for use if necessary? Finally, do you have a flashlight? If all electrical power is lost (which is a distinct possibility), then you will need the flashlight to see the instruments. (You DO carry a flashlight in an accessible location on all night flights, don't you?) One of the main ideas behind the SDRV process is that you keep looping through the steps, even after you have made an initial diagnosis and chosen a course of action.

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter IFR Scenario Vigilance Some examples of things your should be considering: Are you maintaining situational awareness? Have you considered how you will make a forced landing at night if you are forced to do so? Are there any major highways that you might use? Are you continuing to attempt to diagnose the problem? Are the kids in the back seat playing with some electronic toys that run off the 12VDC power outlets? Maybe something has shorted there. Can ATC paint you with their radar as a primary target? If so, perhaps you could switch off the transponder. Is your solution still viable? Is the airport you are headed toward still open? Are you sure you have the fuel required to make it there? Are you still trying to minimize risks: Do you have a back-up hand-held transceiver? (I'll bet you buy one if you survive this flight!) Now would be a good time to see if it works, so you could keep the nav/com radios turned off. Go to the VFR Scenario

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter Remember and practice these components of our overall Problem Solving Strategy for ill-defined problems in the air: Situation Awareness - Monitor - Evaluate - Anticipate - Consider the Plane, Path and People Diagnosis - Gather new information - Maintain control - Attempt to solve the problem - Seek outside assistance - Deep safe options open - Summarize the situation Resolution - Continue to Gather Information - Summarize and Look for Alternatives - Manage the Risks Vigilance - Maintain Vigilance - Maintain Situation Awareness Summary

IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Copyright 2012 David R. Hunter THE END I hope you found the program interesting and that it helps you to be a better, safer pilot. Please visit our web site for more evaluation and training exercises: www.avhf.com www.avhf.com CREDITS This program is adapted from a program titled, "Progressive Decision-Making for General Aviation Pilots." I changed the title because I think that "structured" better captures the concepts behind this training approach. The original course was developed by Dr. Richard Jensen and a team of graduate students at The Oho State University around 1998. Dr. David Hunter (that's me) was the project director for the FAA. A great deal of credit goes to Ms. Sarah Barber, who based her Masters thesis on this program. Ms. Barber's research showed that pilots who completed this program actually performed significantly better on simulator-based tests of in-flight decision-making.

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IntroductionStrategiesScenariosSummary Welcome to Structured Decision-Making for General Aviation Pilots Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter