15
ORIGINAL PAPER ‘Invasional meltdown’: evidence for unexpected consequences and cumulative impacts of multispecies invasions W. Ian Montgomery Mathieu G. Lundy Neil Reid Received: 29 June 2011 / Accepted: 19 November 2011 / Published online: 1 December 2011 Ó Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011 Abstract Empirical support for ‘invasional melt- down’, where the presence of one invading species facilitates another and compounds negative impacts on indigenous species, is equivocal with few convinc- ing studies. In Ireland, the bank vole was introduced 80 years ago and now occupies a third of the island. The greater white-toothed shrew arrived more recently within the invasive range of the bank vole. We surveyed the abundance of both invasive species and two indigenous species, the wood mouse and pygmy shrew, throughout their respective ranges. The nega- tive effects of invasive on indigenous species were strong and cumulative bringing about species replace- ment. The greater white-toothed shrew, the second invader, had a positive and synergistic effect on the abundance of the bank vole, the first invader, but a negative and compounding effect on the abundance of the wood mouse and occurrence of the pygmy shrew. The gradual replacement of the wood mouse by the bank vole decreased with distance from the point of the bank vole’s introduction whilst no pygmy shrews were captured where both invasive species were present. Such interactions may not be unique to invasions but characteristic of all multispecies com- munities. Small mammals are central in terrestrial food webs and compositional changes to this community in Ireland are likely to reverberate throughout the ecosystem. Vegetation composition and structure, invertebrate communities and the pro- ductivity of avian and mammalian predators are likely to be affected. Control of these invasive species may only be effected through landscape and habitat management. Keywords Impacts Interspecific competition Island populations Invasional meltdown Multiple invasions Small mammal community Introduction ‘Invasional meltdown’ (Simberloff and Von Holle 1999) describes the phenomenon where one non- indigenous species facilitates the invasion of another and compounds their independent impacts on native species, communities and ecosystems. In reviewing the concept of invasional meltdown, Simberloff (2006) noted a lack of conclusive evidence and ‘‘a particular dearth of proven instances in which two invasive species enhance the impact and/or probability of establishment and spread of the other’’. Where systematic and experimental studies have been con- ducted there is evidence of complex interactions involving introduced and native predators. For exam- ple, Adams et al. (2003) report enhanced invasion by bullfrogs due to the presence of introduced fish which W. I. Montgomery (&) M. G. Lundy N. Reid School of Biological Sciences, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast BT9 7BL, Northern Ireland, UK e-mail: [email protected] 123 Biol Invasions (2012) 14:1111–1125 DOI 10.1007/s10530-011-0142-4

‘Invasional meltdown’: evidence for unexpected consequences and cumulative impacts of multispecies invasions

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Page 1: ‘Invasional meltdown’: evidence for unexpected consequences and cumulative impacts of multispecies invasions

ORIGINAL PAPER

‘Invasional meltdown’: evidence for unexpectedconsequences and cumulative impacts of multispeciesinvasions

W. Ian Montgomery • Mathieu G. Lundy •

Neil Reid

Received: 29 June 2011 / Accepted: 19 November 2011 / Published online: 1 December 2011

� Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Abstract Empirical support for ‘invasional melt-

down’, where the presence of one invading species

facilitates another and compounds negative impacts

on indigenous species, is equivocal with few convinc-

ing studies. In Ireland, the bank vole was introduced

80 years ago and now occupies a third of the island.

The greater white-toothed shrew arrived more recently

within the invasive range of the bank vole. We

surveyed the abundance of both invasive species and

two indigenous species, the wood mouse and pygmy

shrew, throughout their respective ranges. The nega-

tive effects of invasive on indigenous species were

strong and cumulative bringing about species replace-

ment. The greater white-toothed shrew, the second

invader, had a positive and synergistic effect on the

abundance of the bank vole, the first invader, but a

negative and compounding effect on the abundance of

the wood mouse and occurrence of the pygmy shrew.

The gradual replacement of the wood mouse by the

bank vole decreased with distance from the point of

the bank vole’s introduction whilst no pygmy shrews

were captured where both invasive species were

present. Such interactions may not be unique to

invasions but characteristic of all multispecies com-

munities. Small mammals are central in terrestrial

food webs and compositional changes to this

community in Ireland are likely to reverberate

throughout the ecosystem. Vegetation composition

and structure, invertebrate communities and the pro-

ductivity of avian and mammalian predators are likely

to be affected. Control of these invasive species may

only be effected through landscape and habitat

management.

Keywords Impacts � Interspecific competition �Island populations � Invasional meltdown � Multiple

invasions � Small mammal community

Introduction

‘Invasional meltdown’ (Simberloff and Von Holle

1999) describes the phenomenon where one non-

indigenous species facilitates the invasion of another

and compounds their independent impacts on native

species, communities and ecosystems. In reviewing

the concept of invasional meltdown, Simberloff

(2006) noted a lack of conclusive evidence and ‘‘a

particular dearth of proven instances in which two

invasive species enhance the impact and/or probability

of establishment and spread of the other’’. Where

systematic and experimental studies have been con-

ducted there is evidence of complex interactions

involving introduced and native predators. For exam-

ple, Adams et al. (2003) report enhanced invasion by

bullfrogs due to the presence of introduced fish which

W. I. Montgomery (&) � M. G. Lundy � N. Reid

School of Biological Sciences, Queen’s University

Belfast, Belfast BT9 7BL, Northern Ireland, UK

e-mail: [email protected]

123

Biol Invasions (2012) 14:1111–1125

DOI 10.1007/s10530-011-0142-4

Page 2: ‘Invasional meltdown’: evidence for unexpected consequences and cumulative impacts of multispecies invasions

increased tadpole survival due to predation on native

dragonfly nymphs.

Commensal rats and mice (Rodentia: Muridae) are

amongst the most common and detrimental of invasive

mammals, especially on islands (Courchamp et al.

2003; Borroto-Paez 2009; Harris 2009; Simberloff

2009). Non-commensal small mammals are less

frequently recorded as invaders (Courchamp et al.

2003; Borroto-Paez 2009; St Clair 2011). Moreover,

as non-commensal species are likely to be less

detectable than commensal species, the process of

invasion may only become apparent many years after

initial introduction.

We present data from Ireland on the invasion of two

non-commensal small mammal species where the

range of the more recent invader falls entirely within

that of the other. Hence, three geographical areas have

been formed: (1) indigenous species only, (2) indig-

enous plus one invading species and (3) indigenous

plus two invading species, allowing the investigation

of a potential invasional meltdown (Simberloff and

Von Holle 1999).

The bank vole Myodes glareolus (Schreber 1780)

was introduced into Ireland from Germany probably in

the late 1920s (Stuart et al. 2007), expanding its range

steadily to occupy roughly the south-western third of

the island. The greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura

russula (Hermann 1780) was first discovered in

Ireland during 2007 (Tosh et al. 2008). It has a limited

range within that of the bank vole and can occur at

high abundance and both species are now common

within the regurgitated pellets of birds of prey (Tosh

et al. 2008) indicating major changes have occurred in

the small mammal community recently. Due to the

size of its initial range it seems likely that the greater

white-toothed shrew was present in Ireland for more

than a decade prior to its discovery. In an Irish context,

it is particularly difficult to establish the status of

mammals that are perceived as ‘native’ due to

uncertainties and complications of (natural) reinva-

sion after the last glacial maximum (Yalden 1999;

Warren 2007; Searle 2008). It seems likely that the

wood mouse Apodemus sylvaticus (Linnaeus 1758)

and the pygmy shrew Sorex minutus (Linnaeus 1766)

arrived in Ireland during the same period as human

colonisation approximately 8,000 years before present

(Preece et al. 1986; McCormick 1999). Nevertheless,

species that colonised pre-1500 AD are generally

considered indigenous (Marnell et al. 2009) having

had sufficient time to integrate into the ecosystem and

become integral components, in this case, important

prey and predator species. All four species of small

mammal are habitat generalists and occupy field

boundaries the predominant habitat in lowland farm-

land (Harris and Yalden 2008).

Early ecological studies involving the bank vole

and wood mouse where they co-occur naturally e.g. in

Great Britain (Kikkawa 1964; Tanton 1969; Crawley

1970) and mainland continental Europe (Mermod

1969; Bergstedt 1965; Birkan 1968) as well as in

Ireland (Fairley and Jones 1976; Smal and Fairley

1981, 1982; Meehan 2005), give little consideration to

interactions between species. However, they indicate

interspecific differences in habitat associations (Evans

1942; Southern and Lowe 1968; De Jonge and Dienske

1979), trophic biology (Watts 1968; Hansson 1971;

Holisova and Obrtel 1980) and activity patterns

(Miller 1955; Kikkawa 1964; Greenwood 1978).

These studies lead to the hypothesis, that in Ireland,

there should be no interaction between invasive bank

voles and wood mice. However, Fasola and Canova

(2000) indicated that there was a population level,

negative asymmetry in the interaction between the

bank vole and wood mouse based on a removal

experiment designed to test the hypothesis that

interspecific competition occurs between these species

perhaps exposing a weakness of conventional, small-

scale, observational studies. There are few comparable

studies involving the greater white-toothed shrew and

pygmy shrew but the known biology of these primarily

insectivorous species (Fons 1972; Grainger and

Fairley 1978; Bever 1983; Meharg, Montgomery and

Dunwoody 1990), the former being approximately

three times larger than the latter (Harris and Yalden

2008), again gives little indication of any strong

interspecific interaction. Comparisons of allopatric

and sympatric populations of soricid shrews, however,

suggest differences consistent with interspecific com-

petition (Ellenbroek 1980). More pertinently, with

reference to invasional meltdown, the literature pro-

vides no indication whether the presence of the bank

vole and greater white-toothed shrew together should

have any greater impact on the wood mouse and/or

pygmy shrew than either in isolation. However,

Leisenjohann et al. (2011) presented evidence from

experimental manipulations in which the common

shrew Sorex araneus Linnaeus 1758 effected changes

in the behaviour of the bank vole through predation of

1112 W. I. Montgomery et al.

123

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pups and competitive interference dependent on

environmental conditions.

We investigated to what extent the concurrent

invasions of Ireland by two small mammal species are

advantaged by the presence of the other and to what

extent their impacts on ‘indigenous’ species are

cumulative. In addition to focussing on interspecific

effects, we examine a range of habitat and landscape

parameters, controlling for variation in prevailing

environmental conditions, which permits conclusions

to be drawn with respect to the process and impacts of

invasion on a landscape scale. Specifically, we test the

hypotheses that (1) the presence of a second invading

species enhances the abundance and potential for

further invasion by another non-native species and (2)

the presence of a second invasive species is more

detrimental to indigenous species in terms of their

abundance than the presence of a single non-native

species. We demonstrate that the negative effects of

invasive species may be strong, even where no impact

was expected, and are cumulative with multiple

invasions resulting in native species replacement or

local extinction.

Methods

Species presence and relative abundance

Field work was conducted in the south-western third of

Ireland, principally in counties Offaly, Laois, Kil-

kenny, Waterford, Tipperary, Limerick and Cork

(Republic of Ireland) with some additional work in

county Down (Northern Ireland). Standard trap lines

comprised of two lethal, metal, snap traps (SelfSet

55 9 110 mm), baited with 0.5 g of soft cheese.

SelfSet traps are highly efficient in catching small

mammals (Phillips and East 1961; Grainger and

Fairley 1978) whilst soft cheese is a suitable bait for

omnivorous rodents and insectivores (Montgomery

and Montgomery 1989; Montgomery unpublished

data). The latter caught a January maximum of 24

pygmy shrews per 100 trap nights whilst Grainger and

Fairley (1978) recorded a winter peak of 34 pygmy

shrews per 100 trap nights using dead meal worms.

This difference may be due to habitat or year but it is

not thought to be important in the present context

where we do not estimate absolute population size.

Here, we calculate relative abundance to make

comparisons within species between areas with and

without invasive species. Each trap line consisted of

two traps at 10 sampling points separated by 10 m

intervals (i.e. 20 traps over 100 m). Traps lines were set

in the south-west 1 km square in each 10 km square

based on the standard Irish grid system. If grid squares

were inaccessible, the next available 1 km square with

road access within the same 10 km square was chosen.

Traps were left in situ for 24 h to cover one complete

cycle of diurnal and nocturnal activity. Trap lines

started adjacent to rural buildings and were set in

hedgerows of \2 m wide. Trap density was approxi-

mately 1 per 10 m2 presenting a trapping effort

substantially higher than that invested in most con-

ventional trapping grids (usually two traps per point on

a 10 9 10 m grid yielding a density of 1 per 50 m2).

All field work was conducted during late autumn and

winter 2010/2011 and was restricted to field bound-

aries, the most prevalent habitat available to all four

study species. Trapping methods were, therefore,

consistent between all three areas studied. Trap data

were expressed as the presence or absence and their

relative abundance i.e. numbers caught of each species.

Defining invasive species ranges

The initial objective was to establish the current range

of the bank vole and greater white-toothed shrew over

a large geographical area. Thus, a total of

165 9 10 km squares were surveyed in a grid strad-

dling the last known boundary of the bank vole range

established in 2002 (Telfer et al. 2005a) whilst also

including the last known boundary of the greater

white-toothed shrew range established in 2008 (Tosh

et al. 2008; Fig. 1a). The point of introduction for the

bank vole was taken as Foynes, Co. Limerick during

the late 1920s (Stuart et al. 2007). The distribution of

the bank vole west of the River Shannon (counties

Clare and Galway) was not investigated as this

represented a smaller part of the species’ range and

the River Shannon was deemed a significant barrier to

dispersal. Hence, expansion of the species in the west

constituted a disparate invasion which may be pro-

ceeding at a different rate from that over the majority

of the species’ range. Furthermore, there was no

evidence that the greater white-toothed shrew

occurred west of the River Shannon and hence this

area was not useful in testing the idea of ‘invasional’

meltdown.

Invasional meltdown in a small mammal community 1113

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The ranges of both invasive species were defined

using a minimum convex polygon to enclose all

presence records determined by the Animal Move-

ments extension for Arcview 3.3 (ESRI, California,

USA). Due to the absence of data west of the River

Shannon during 2010, the north-western boundary was

interpolated by buffering the invasion front during

2002 by the mean distance which the range had

expanded by 2010 in the direction for which data were

available i.e. east and north-east. The area of the range

of each species was calculated in km2 using the Xtools

extension for Arcview 3.3.

The approximate rate of range expansion of the

bank vole since introduction was the taken as the

maximum distance between Foynes and the furthest

record during 2010/2011 divided by 83.5 years (i.e.

assuming June 1927 as the date of introduction). The

point of introduction for the greater white-toothed

shrew was unknown (Tosh et al. 2008). Centroid

analysis was performed using the Animal Movements

extension to determine the centre of the greater white-

toothed shrew range, weighted by the density of all

known records (i.e. those in Tosh et al. 2008 plus the

current study). This was taken as its putative point of

introduction assuming a uniform rate of expansion

since establishment. However, as the date of intro-

duction was also not known there was insufficient data

available to allow a reliable estimate of range expan-

sion to be calculated.

Environmental parameters

A suite of potential confounding factors were col-

lected during trapping (Table 1) including altitude

(elevation above sea level) and the prevailing weather

conditions in the previous 12 h recorded on an ordinal

scale including temperature (very cold \ 0�C, cold

\ 5�C or mild [ 5�C), rainfall (heavy rain, light rain

or no rain), ground conditions (very wet, wet or damp)

and cloud cover (complete, partial or none). Data on

the percentage illumination of the moon’s disc were

acquired from http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/Moon

Fraction.php.

Habitat variables were also recorded (Table 1)

including estimated height of nearby trees, hedgerow

height and hedgerow width (±0.5 m). The time since

the last hedgerow cut was also estimated (at annual

intervals from 0 to 3 years). Hedgerow species

richness was estimated for both trees and ground flora

(species poor, average or species rich). Field bound-

aries were recorded as the presence or absence of a

bank or wall, verge or ditch.

Landscape variables (Table 1) were derived from

CORINE datasets (EEA 2000) to describe the prev-

alence of five common land cover types (Arable,

Bog, Broad-leaved woodland, Coniferous planta-

tions and Pasture). Each trap line was buffered to

250, 500, 750 m, 1 and 2 km and the percentage

cover of each landscape type estimated using

Fig. 1 a The bank vole

range (grey shading) during

2002 (Telfer et al. 2005a)

and the greater white-

toothed shrew range

(diagonal hatching) during

2008 (Tosh et al. 2008)

showing the placement of

1 km sample squares (opensquares) at the south-west

corner of each 10 km gridsquare within which traplines were set during winter

2010/2011. The point of

introduction for both species

is also shown (star symbols).

b The updated range

boundaries of both species

during 2010

1114 W. I. Montgomery et al.

123

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the Patch Analyst 4 extension for Arcview 3.3.

Landscape structure (Table 1) was described at

the same five spatial scales in terms of habitat

‘patchiness’ using the density of habitat patch

edge boundaries, roughly analogous to hedgerow

density.

Table 1 Explanatory variables used to model small mammal relative abundance or occurrence

Variable type Variable name Units Description

Species Woodmouse N Relative abundance (i.e. numbers caught) of Apodemus sylvaticus

Pygmy shrew N Occurrence (presence and absence) and relative abundance (i.e. numbers caught)

of Sorex minutus

Bank vole N Relative abundance (i.e. numbers caught) of Myodes glareolus

GWTS N Relative abundance (i.e. numbers caught) of the greater white-toothed shrew

Crocidura russula

Confounding

variables

Altitude M Elevation above sea level derived from a Digital Elevation Model of Ireland

Dist from intro km Shortest distance in kilometres of each trapline from the point of introduction for

the bankvole (Foynes, Co. Clare) or greater white-toothed shrew (taken as

5 km north-east of Dundrum, Co. Tipperary)

% Moon % Percentage illumination of the moons disc

Weather Index A single Principal Component Axis accounted for 77.2% of variance in weather

patterns recorded during trap nights (Eigenvalue = 3.088) and was positively

correlated with temperature (r = 0.945), rainfall (0.857), ground conditions

(0.878) and cloud cover (0.831)

Habitat Hedgerow

maturity

Index Principal Component Axis #1 accounted for 33.8% of variance in habitat

variables collected in the field (Eigenvalue = 3.167) and was positively

correlated with tree height (r = 0.660), hedge height (0.874), hedge width

(0.868) and the estimated time since last hedgerow cut (0.875)

Verge spp.

richness

Index Principal Component Axis #2 accounted for 16.3% of variance in habitat

variables collected in the field (Eigenvalue = 1.467) and was positively

correlated with the presence of a verge (r = 0.692) and the species richness of

ground flora (0.731) and trees (0.559)

Field boundary

type

Index Principal Component Axis #3 accounted for 13.1% of variance in habitat

variables collected in the field (Eigenvalue = 1.177) and was positively

correlated with the presence of banks and walls (r = 0.797) and negatively

correlated with the presence of ditches (-0.718)

Landscape

composition

Arable % Area of land defined as annual crops associated with permanent crops or non-

irrigated arable land expressed as a percentage of the total area within a buffer

surrounding each trapline at five different spatial scales: 250, 500, 750 m, 1

and 2 km

Bog % Area of land defined as peat bog, moor, heath or inland marsh expressed as a

percentage of the total area within a buffer surrounding each trapline at five

different spatial scales: 250, 500, 750 m, 1 and 2 km

Broad-leaved % Area of land defined as broad-leaved deciduous woodland expressed as a

percentage of the total area within a buffer surrounding each trapline at five

different spatial scales: 250, 500, 750 m, 1 and 2 km

Coniferous % Area of land defined as evergreen coniferous plantations expressed as a

percentage of the total area within a buffer surrounding each trapline at five

different spatial scales: 250, 500, 750, 1 and 2 km

Pasture % Area of land defined as pasture expressed as a percentage of the total area within

a buffer surrounding each trapline at five different spatial scales: 250, 500,

750 m, 1 and 2 km

Landscape

structure

Edge density m/ha The density of habitat patch boundaries within a buffer surrounding each trapline

at five different spatial scales: 250, 500, 750 m, 1 and 2 km calculated using

the ArcGIS extension Patch Analyst 4

Landscape variables were obtained from the CORINE land cover map 2000 (EEA 2000) using ArcGIS 10 (ESRI, California, USA)

Invasional meltdown in a small mammal community 1115

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Trap out capture

To define the range of the invasive species, trapping

was restricted to a single night potentially biasing

estimates of relative abundance as the probability of

capture may have differed between species due to

variation in proportions of individuals in the popula-

tion that are more or less sedentary. A standard trap

line methodology was used as before but trapping

occurred over five consecutive nights with traps being

checked each morning. Twenty such trap lines were

set in each of the three geographical zones: (1)

indigenous species only, (2) indigenous plus one

invading species and (3) indigenous plus two invading

species. Replication was achieved by dividing the 20

standard trap lines equally into two 10 km squares at

two sites (North and South, respectively) within each

zone respectively: (a) Adare/Foynes, County Limerick

(R4549, R3841; R2933, R4345), (b) Cashel, County

Tipperary (R9297, R3840; S0913, S4553) and c)

Seaforde, County Down (J3739, J3338; J3739, J4045).

Removal data involving closed populations typi-

cally follow a negative exponential curve until all

animals are removed (Otis et al. 1978). Where

populations are open, as in the current study, they

comprise resident and non-resident animals. The latter

are generally transient animals that are dispersing

through a trap line or adjacent neighbours which were

previously resident elsewhere but expand their range

when the original residents of a trap line have been

removed. Such animals are hard to discriminate. For

the purposes of the current study we considered

individuals caught prior to the first day on which no

animals were caught as ‘resident’. Individuals caught

after the first day on which no animals were caught

were considered ‘transient’, representing dispersing

individuals or near neighbours moving into the trap

line. Estimates of the percentage of animals that were

considered resident and transient were subsequently

used to adjust the relative abundance data from the

165 9 1 km squares trapped previously so that the

total number of animals (both resident and transient)

could be estimated within the three zones of invasion.

Statistical analyses

Principal Components Analysis (PCA) was used to

summarise categorical variables describing related

variables into a reduced set of 4 axes (Table 1).

Variance in the relative abundance of the bank vole,

greater white-toothed shrew and wood mouse was

examined using separate Generalized Linear Models

(GLM) assuming a Poisson error distribution with a

logarithmic link function fitting the numbers of each

species caught as the dependent variable in each case.

Predictor variables included PCA derived variables,

habitat parameters and landscape composition and

structure (Table 1). The spatial scale at which each of

the landscape variables operated was selected by

building univariate models for each variable at each

spatial scale (Lundy and Montgomery 2010). The

single best explanatory scale for each variable was

taken as the model with the lowest Akaike Information

Criterion (AIC; Akaike 1983; Burnham and Anderson

2002). For both invasive species, the distance from

their respective points of introduction was also fitted

as a covariate. Only grid squares within the respective

ranges of each species were used for model construc-

tion. To test for interspecific effects, the relative

abundances of all other small mammal species were

also fitted as covariates. All two-way interaction

factors were included in models.

The pygmy shrew occurred at \10% of sites with

one individual per trap line, in all but one instance.

Thus, a GLM assuming a Binomial error distribution

with a logit link function was constructed where the

dependent variable was presence or absence of the

pygmy shrew. The pygmy shrew did not occur within

the range of the greater white-toothed shrew and,

therefore, could not exhibit any relationship with the

relative abundance of the latter per se but it was

evidently negatively affected by its presence. Thus,

the abundance of the greater white-toothed shrew was

excluded from the model and replaced with a two-

level factor (called GWTS range) which defined each

trap line as either within or outside the range of the

greater white-toothed shrew. All other variables were

fitted in the same manner as in the models for the other

species.

Prior to model fitting, all predictor variables that

occurred at \10% of trap lines were removed.

Remaining variables were tested for multicollinearity

using ordinary least squares regression to ensure that

all tolerance values were [0.1 and all variance

inflation factor values were\10.0 (Quinn and Keough

2002). Variables that were collinear were removed by

excluding one of a pair of bivariates (rs C 0.5) which

1116 W. I. Montgomery et al.

123

Page 7: ‘Invasional meltdown’: evidence for unexpected consequences and cumulative impacts of multispecies invasions

possessed the lowest correlation coefficient (rs) with

the dependent variable in each case (Booth et al.

1994). To allow the direct comparison of regression

coefficients, variables were standardized to have a �x ¼0 and a r = 1 prior to analysis. All possible model

permutations were created and ranked using AIC

values. The Akaike weight (wi) of each model was

calculated within the top set of N models, where the

value of delta AIC(Di) B 2 units (Burnham and

Anderson 2002). The Akaike weight of each model

is the relative likelihood of that model being the best

within a set of N models. To calculate the relative

importance of each variable relative to all other

variables, theP

wi of all models within the top set of

models that contained the variable of interest was

calculated and the variables ranked byP

wi

(McAlpine et al. 2006); the larger the value ofP

wi

(which varies between 0 and 1), the more important

the variable. Multimodel inference and model aver-

aging was used to determine effect sizes (b coefficient)

of each variable across the top set of models (Burnham

and Anderson 2002). Variables that had equalP

wi

values were ranked in order of the magnitude of their

model averaged regression coefficients.

The relative abundance of each species was exam-

ined over five consecutive trap nights using a Repeated

Measures Mixed Model assuming an autoregressive

error structure at a lag of 1 night (AR1) fitted using the

Residual Maximum Likelihood (REML) procedure.

The total numbers of each species were fitted as the

dependent variables in each case and for the wood

mouse the estimated numbers of residents and tran-

sients. Replicate area (North and South) and trap line

ID (1–10) were fitted as random factors. The three

invasion zones: (1) indigenous species only, (2)

indigenous plus one invading species and iii) indig-

enous plus two invading species (Area), trap night

(1–5) and their interaction (Area*Trap night) were

fitted as fixed factors. Non-significant interactions

were subsequently removed.

Variance in the adjusted estimates of total numbers

and numbers of residents and transients for wood

mouse was examined using a GLM assuming a

Poisson error distribution with a logarithmic link

function.

All statistical analyses were performed using

GenStat v10 and SPSS v 18.

Results

A total of 286 bank voles, 18 greater white-toothed

shrews, 215 wood mice and 16 pygmy shrews were

captured during the first survey. The mean number of

animals caught per trap line per night was 3.28 animals

(range 0–11). This left approximately 16 (80%) traps

unoccupied at each trap line ensuring that differential

activity patterns between the species did not result in

trapping bias where one species might have entered

the traps non-randomly thus occupying them and

denying access to others (Liu and Yip 2003; Pascal

et al. 2009).

The range of the bank vole was estimated to cover

approximately 32,700 km2 during winter 2010/2011,

accounting for 38.7% of Ireland (Fig. 1b). The max-

imum distance between the point of introduction and

the furthest record during 2010/2011 was 148 km.

Given a putative introduction date during the late

1920s (Stuart et al. 2007), the mean rate of range

expansion was estimated at 1.79 km-year. The range of

the greater white-toothed shrew was estimated to

cover approximately 1,000 km2 during 2007/08 (Tosh

et al. 2008). We estimated the species range to cover

approximately 2,300 km2 during winter 2010/2011,

accounting for 3.3% of the total land area of the island

(Fig. 1b). Centroid analysis suggested a putative point

of introduction 5 km north-east of Dundrum, North

Tipperary (Fig. 1b), assuming constant rate of radial

dispersal from a single introduction.

The relative abundance of the bank vole was

associated negatively with that of wood mouse, pygmy

shrew and, most notably, their interaction (Fig. 2a).

Conversely, the relative abundance of the greater

white-toothed shrew was associated positively with

relative abundance of wood mouse (Fig. 2b). The

relative abundance of the wood mouse was associated

negatively with numbers of bank vole (Fig. 2c). The

presence of the pygmy shrew was associated nega-

tively with the presence of the greater white-toothed

shrew and bank vole (Fig. 2d). No pygmy shrews were

caught within the range of the greater white-toothed

shrew but 16 were caught outside its range predom-

inantly along or beyond the margins of the distribution

of the bank vole. This is reflected in the percentage

occurrence of the pygmy shrew in the three geograph-

ical areas studied (Fig. 3a). Most notably, the

Invasional meltdown in a small mammal community 1117

123

Page 8: ‘Invasional meltdown’: evidence for unexpected consequences and cumulative impacts of multispecies invasions

occurrence of the bank vole was elevated significantly

in the presence of the greater white-toothed shrew

(Fig. 3a). Moreover, the relative abundance of the

bank vole was negatively associated with distance

from its introduction point (Fig. 2a). Specifically, its

relative abundance was greatest within 90 km of the

point of introduction with about 2–3 animals caught

per trap line but declined steadily toward the invasion

front where \0.5 animals were caught per trap line

(Fig. 3b). Wood mouse numbers were lowest in close

proximity to the point of bank vole introduction with

on average 0.5 animals per trap line but increased

rapidly, near and beyond, the bank vole invasion front

to [ 3 animals per trap line (Figs. 2a, 3b) representing

a six fold reduction in the relative abundance of the

wood mice in areas where there had been prolonged

contact with the bank vole. Moreover, the percentage

occurrence of the wood mouse was greatest in the area

of indigenous species only; significantly lower in the

area of indigenous plus one invading species; and,

significantly lower again in the area of indigenous plus

two invading species (Fig. 3a).

The relative abundance of the bank vole and

occurrence of the pygmy shrew were associated

positively with field boundary type (PC3), specifically

the presence of banks and walls and the absence of

GWTSWeather PC1

AltitudeBroad-leaved (2km)

Vegetation PC2Bankvole*Pygmy shrew

% moonPygmy shrew

Vegetation PC1Edge density (250m)

Arable (2km)Pasture (2km)

Vegetation PC3Coniferous (2km)

Bog (750m)Bankvole

-0.304 ± 0.116**

-0.326 ± 0.111***

-0.278 ± 0.120**-0.160 ± 0.073*

-0.225 ± 0.118*

-0.166 ± 0.084

0.149 ± 0.0780.133 ± 0.074

-0.135 ± 0.2130.085 ± 0.075

-0.265 ± 0.266

-0.028 ± 0.096

0.073 ± 0.075

-0.036 ± 0.079

0.037 ± 0.077

0.034 ± 0.077

∑wi

Edge density (2km)Weather PC1

Coniferous (2km)GWTS

Bog (2km)Altitude

Arable (500m)Vegetation PC2

Woodmouse*GWTSVegetation PC1Vegetation PC3

Pasture (2km)Pygmy shrewWoodmouse

Broad-leaved (2km)Dist from intro

% moonWoodmouse*Pygmy shrew

-0.356 ± 0.072***-0.643 ± 0.223**

-0.242 ± 0.069***-0.234 ± 0.089**-0.230 ± 0.080**

0.205 ± 0.072**-0.099 ± 0.118

0.125 ± 0.063*0.121 ± 0.069

-0.080 ± 0.087-0.057 ± 0.066

-0.067 ± 0.107

-0.058 ± 0.084-0.036 ± 0.080

0.025 ± 0.056

-0.032 ± 0.136

-0.015 ± 0.0950.009 ± 0.063 Edge density (750m)

Coniferous (2km)

Weather (PC1)

Altitude

Bankvole

Arable (500m)

Vegetation PC1

Pasture (250m)

Dist from Intro

Vegetation PC2

Woodmouse

Bog (250m)

Broad-leaved (2km)

Vegetation PC3

% moon

-0.531 ± 0.291

-0.607 ± 0.407*

-0.851 ± 0.501

-0.736 ± 0.655

0.499 ± 0.233*

0.146 ± 0.349

-0.044 ± 0.426

1.680 ± 1.140

0.688 ± 0.578

0.341 ± 0.829

0.184 ± 0.466

-0.420 ± 0.608

0.026 ± 0.4780.127 ± 0.403

0.356 ± 0.528

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Vegetation PC1

Weather PC1

Broad-leaved (2km)

Vegetation PC2

Woodmouse

Bog (2km)

Pasture (250m)

% moon

Altitude

Edge density (2km)

Bankvole

Vegetation PC3

Arable (250m)

Coniferous (1km)

GWTS range

-5.990 ± 3.070

Factorial

-0.797 ± 0.270**

0.758 ± 0.218***

-0.648 ± 0.257*

0.586 ± 0.197*

0.405 ± 0.218-0.266 ± 0.160

0.225 ± 0.286

-0.184 ± 0.218

0.038 ± 0.179

-0.083 ± 0.190

0.132 ± 0.195

0.011 ± 0.107

0.014 ± 0.175

∑wi

(a)Bank vole relative abundance (n=133) (b) Greater white-toothed shrew abundance (n=27)

(c)Wood mouse relative abundance (n=165) (d) Pygmy shrew occurrence (n=165)

Fig. 2 Relative importance of explanatory variables in explain-

ing variation in the relative abundance of a bank voles, b greater

white-toothed shrews (GWTS) and c wood mouse and d the

occurrence of pygmy shrews. Variables are ranked in order of

the sum of their Akaike weights (P

wi) within the top set of

models i.e. models with DAIC B 2. Black bars indicate those

variables that were retained in the best single approximating

model (i.e. that with the lowest AIC value) and grey barsindicate variables included in all other models within the top set

1118 W. I. Montgomery et al.

123

Page 9: ‘Invasional meltdown’: evidence for unexpected consequences and cumulative impacts of multispecies invasions

ditches, whereas the relative abundances of the greater

white-toothed shrew and the wood mouse were asso-

ciated negatively with the same feature (Fig. 2a–d).

Overall, landscape variables at the larger spatial scales

were generally more important in explaining variation

in the relative abundance and occurrence of small

mammals than ground-truthed habitat parameters. The

relative abundance of the bank vole was associated

positively with the area of pasture within a 2 km buffer

(Fig. 2a) whereas the relative abundance of the wood

mouse and occurrence of the pygmy shrew were

negatively associated with the same feature and the

area of arable within a 2 km buffer (Fig. 2c, d). Both

indigenous species were associated positively with

habitat patch edge density and associated negatively

with landscapes dominated by coniferous plantations

(Fig. 2c, d). The relative abundance of the wood

mouse was significantly lower in areas where bog was

prevalent within a buffer of 750 m (Fig. 2c). Weather

conditions had little effect on the capture of any

species but the illumination of the moon had a strong

negative effect on the numbers of both invasive

species caught (Fig. 2a, b).

The total numbers of bank vole and wood mice

caught differed significantly over a period of five trap

nights (Table 2) with greatest numbers being caught

on night one with a subsequent decline (Fig. 4). There

was no significant change in the total numbers of

greater white-toothed shrew caught over the 5 trap

nights. For the wood mouse only, the number of animals

determined as resident and transient, also differed

significantly over the 5 trap nights and between the

three geographical areas (Fig. 4) as demonstrated by

the significant interaction of Area*Trap night

(Table 2). In general, numbers of transient wood mice

increased over the five trap nights (Fig. 4) and there

was a significantly greater proportion of transients

caught in the area of indigenous species plus one

invasive species i.e. bank vole only than in either the

indigenous species only or indigenous species plus

two invasive species i.e. bank vole plus greater white-

toothed shrew (Table 3). There was no significant

difference in the number of bank voles caught between

either area in which it occurred (Table 2; Fig. 4).

There were no patterns in the timing of captures of the

pygmy shrew but overall numbers were significantly

reduced in areas with invasive species, being com-

pletely absent from areas with two invasive species

(Table 2; Fig. 4). Invasive species had a significant

negative and cumulative effect on the estimate of

the total numbers of wood mice (Fd.f=2,162 = 8.29,

P \ 0.001), and a negative effect on numbers of

residents (Fd.f=2,162 = 7.25, P \ 0.001; Fig. 5). Num-

bers of transient wood mice were significantly

greater in the presence of bank vole than where

there were no invasive species or where there were two

(Fd.f=2,162 = 8.65, P \ 0.001; Fig. 5).

(a)

(b)

Species

Bank v

ole

GWTS

Woo

d m

ouse

Pygm

y shr

ew

% o

ccu

rren

ce ±

s.e

.

0

20

40

60

80

100

* * **

Fig. 3 a Percentage occurrence ± s.e. of each small mammal

species within the ranges of (i) indigenous species only (whitebars), (ii) indigenous plus one invasive species (light grey bars)

and (iii) indigenous plus two invasive species (dark grey bars)

where stars represent total absence and b the relationship

between the mean relative abundance (numbers caught) ± s.e.

of bank vole and wood mouse against distance from the point of

introduction for the bank vole (divided into ten discrete distance

categories of equal width)

Invasional meltdown in a small mammal community 1119

123

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Discussion

This study provides convincing evidence of invasional

meltdown (Simberloff and Von Holle 1999). We show

that the negative effects of invasive species can be

very strong, even where no impact was expected, due

to interspecific differences in ecology and behaviour

(Evans 1942, Miller 1955, Watts 1968), and are

cumulative bringing about species replacement and

local extinction. In this case, species replacement was

slow and incomplete with respect to the effect of the

bank vole on the wood mouse but rapid and complete

with respect to the combined effect of the bank vole

and the greater white-toothed shrew on the pygmy

shrew. Most notably, the greater white-toothed shrew,

being the second invader, had a positive and syner-

gistic effect on the abundance of the first invader i.e.

the bank vole, but a negative and compounding effect

on the abundance of the wood mouse and occurrence

of the pygmy shrew. Such interactions conform to the

invasional meltdown model. However, the presence of

both negative and positive interspecific effects sug-

gests that such interactions may not be characteristic

of invasions alone but of all multispecies communi-

ties. For example, similar landscape and habitat effects

(e.g. Andrews and O’Brien 2000; Orrock et al. 2000;

Panzacchi et al. 2010) and negative interspecific

interactions (e.g. Fox and Fox 2000; Eccard and

Ylonen 2003; Morris 2005) have been revealed in well

established small mammal communities.

Confining the current study to one habitat (farmland

hedgerows) during a single period in the annual

population cycle within 1 year avoided confounding

influences in the interpretation of the results, but

leaves open the issue of whether gradual species

replacement will continue and eventually be complete

across the full range of habitats occupied by both

indigenous species. The wood mouse and pygmy

shrew occupy, not only farmland, but also woodland,

rough grassland, dry and wet heath and uplands \1,000 m above sea level (Harris and Yalden 2008).

Whilst field margins of enclosed farmland in Ireland

comprise[80% of the land area (EEA 2000) and is the

most prevalent habitat available to small mammals,

the contribution of the wider landscape to abundance

(Huitu et al. 2003; Nupp and Swihart 2000; Panzacchi

et al. 2010) makes it difficult to predict the effects of

invasion in other habitats which may be more or less

favourable depending on species preferences. Com-

plete replacement may never be effected if the

invading species either do not invade less prevalent

habitats or if the outcome of species interactions is

Table 2 Generalized estimating equation of small mammal

relative abundance (total numbers caught) on five consecutive

trap nights (a–d) with area (indigenous species only,

indigenous plus one invasive species and indigenous plus two

invasive species) and trap night fitted as fixed factors

Model Variables Wald v2 df P

(a) Bank vole Area 0.13 1,194 0.724

Trap night 23.02 4,194 \0.001

(b) GWTSa Trap night 0.58 4,94 0.680

(c) Wood mouse Area 35.19 2,285 \0.001

Trap night 6.63 4,285 \0.001

Area*Trap night 4.75 8,285 \0.001

(i) Residents Area 26.57 2,285 \0.001

Trap night 23.08 4,285 \0.001

Area*Trap night 9.73 8,285 \0.001

(ii) Transients Area 7.99 2,285 \0.001

Trap night 6.65 4,285 \0.001

Area*Trap night 3.71 8.285 \0.001

(d) Pygmy shrew Area 9.12 2.247 \0.001

Trap night 1.00 4.45 0.418

Wood mouse (c) was also split between those that were determined as (i) resident or (ii) transienta The GWTS was restricted to only one species range; thus range was not fitted for this species

1120 W. I. Montgomery et al.

123

Page 11: ‘Invasional meltdown’: evidence for unexpected consequences and cumulative impacts of multispecies invasions

habitat specific (Kelt et al. 1995; Fox and Fox 2000;

Smith and Quinn 1996). Further research is needed

to resolve the impact of the bank vole and greater

white-toothed shrew in other habitats. There was no

indication that there was any more propensity for

commensalism among greater white toothed shrews

(Harris and Yalden 2008) than other species in the

current study perhaps reflecting differences in den-

sity or rural buildings in Ireland compared to

continental Europe.

The gradual replacement of the wood mouse by the

bank vole decreased with distance from the point of

introduction and the disparate habitats supporting the

former have not halted the protracted process of

replacement. Trapping over a period of five nights

suggested that the replacement of the wood mouse was

equivocal: overall numbers were not significantly

different between areas with indigenous species only

and those areas with the bank vole but not the greater

white-toothed shrew. Whilst resident wood mice were

Rel

ativ

e ab

un

dan

ce ±

s.e

.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Rel

ativ

e ab

un

dan

ce ±

s.e

.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Rel

ativ

e ab

un

dan

ce ±

s.e

.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5

1 2 3 4 5

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5

1 2 3 4 50.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

(a) Bank vole (b) Greater white-toothed shrew

(c) Wood mouse (d) Pygmy shrew

(e) Wood mouse i) Residents ii) Transients

Fig. 4 Mean relative abundance of small mammals (total

numbers caught) ± s.e. on five consecutive trap nights a–d with

wood mouse; e split between those that were determined as

(i) resident or (ii) transient. Ranges are defined as (i) indigenous

species only (black circles), (ii) indigenous plus one invasive

species (light grey triangles) and (iii) indigenous plus two

invasive species (dark grey squares)

Invasional meltdown in a small mammal community 1121

123

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impacted negatively, the percentage of transient

individuals in the overall population increased where

the bank vole was present. Thus, the wood mouse may

have changed its behaviour in the presence of the bank

vole which may affect survival and hence population

dynamics indirectly (Adler and Levins 1994; Boinski

et al. 2005; Vibe-Petersen et al. 2006). Nevertheless,

overall landscape factors may prevent the complete

replacement of the wood mouse in the presence of the

bank vole where the greater white-toothed shrew has

yet to colonise.

The mechanisms whereby invasive species impact

or replace indigenous species are many and varied and

the outcome may be subtle (King et al. 2011). There

may be direct interspecific competition for limited

resources or interference competition (Probert and

Litvaitis 1996, Bohn et al. 2008, Stokes et al. 2009;

Leisenjohann et al. 2011). For example, it is possible

that similarity in diet provides a basis for competition

for food resources between the bank vole and wood

mouse, and the greater white-toothed shrew and

pygmy shrew (Watts 1968; Hansson 1971; Fons

1972; Grainger and Fairley 1978; Holisova and Obrtel

1980; Bever 1983; Meharg et al. 1990). Indeed, such is

the dependency of both rodent species on inverte-

brates, especially arthropods during the summer, that

diffuse competition (Pianka 1974) amongst all four

species may play a role in determining species

interactions. Disease and parasites have also been

implicated in species replacements including those

involving rodents (Rushton et al. 2000; Torchin et al.

2003; Telfer et al. 2005a; Bell et al. 2009). This may

well be relevant with respect to the bank vole and

wood mouse as both share pathogens that may

undermine host survival and reproduction (Telfer

et al. 2002; Telfer et al. 2005b). It is possible that the

introduction of the bank vole may also expose naive

wood mice to one or more novel pathogens not

previously found in Ireland (Stuart and Sleeman

2006).

Our findings have much wider implications for

ecosystem change than compositional shifts in small

mammal communities alone (Wardles et al. 2011).

Rodents and insectivores are central in grassland and

woodland food webs. They consume fungi, flowers,

seeds and seedlings and prey upon invertebrates whilst

they are, in turn, the main food source for generalist

and specialist avian and mammalian predators.

Although there is overlap in trophic biology of the

four species studied, they are not ecological equiva-

lents. For example, the bank vole feeds more on green

plant material than the wood mouse whilst it is

considerably more active during diurnal periods. The

greater white-toothed shrew has a body mass approx-

imately three times larger than the pygmy shrew

making them poor ecological equivalents. Hence, the

gradual replacement of the indigenous Irish species

may have major consequences at the ecosystem level.

The introduction of the bank vole and greater

white-toothed shrew into Ireland has led to concurrent,

Table 3 Summary of the capture success for wood mouse

over a period of five consecutive trap nights in each of three

areas: (i) indigenous species only, (ii) indigenous plus one

invasive species and (iii) indigenous plus two invasive species

Range % of Residents

caught on night

1 ± SD (n)

% of Total

captures that

were transients

± SD (n)

(i) Indigenous

species only

71.3 ± 28.7 (20) 33.2 ± 25.8 (20)

(ii) Indigenous

plus one invading

species

56.7 ± 40.4 (3) 78.3 ± 36.9 (10)

(iii) Indigenous

plus two invading

species

53.7 ± 9.1 (12) 37.0 ± 46.0 (17)

Total Residents Transients

Ad

just

ed a

bu

nd

ance

± s

.e.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

a

b bb

aa

a

a

b

Fig. 5 Mean abundance ± s.e. for the total, resident and

transient numbers of wood mice per standard trap line for trap

night 1 adjusted by the total cumulative number caught over trap

nights 1–5 within the ranges of (i) indigenous species only

(white bars), (ii) indigenous plus one invasive species (light greybars) and (iii) indigenous plus two invasive species (dark greybars). Significant differences within each category and species

(total, resident and transient) are shown using different

superscript letters

1122 W. I. Montgomery et al.

123

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overlapping invasions on a geographical scale that

have resulted in a major reduction in relative abun-

dance of the wood mouse and the local extinction of

pygmy shrew where both invasive species occurred

together. Furthermore, the synergistic relationship of

two invading species compounds their impacts on

indigenous communities supporting the invasional

meltdown model. Invasive mammals are already

affecting the unique assemblage of endemic lineages

that comprise the Irish mammal fauna (Reid and

Montgomery 2007; Reid 2010). In contrast to the

impact of invasive species such as muntjac deer or

grey squirrel which have more constrained habitats

such as woodland, the ongoing invasion of the bank

vole and greater white-toothed shrew in Ireland is

likely to be widespread as agricultural land mostly

with hedgerows as field boundaries comprises 80% of

the land area. Often, the ecological impacts and

economic costs of introduced species, especially those

on islands, become apparent only after many decades

and remain hidden until it is too late to address their

adverse effects adequately (e.g. White and Harris

2002). Eradication of rodents on islands has been

demonstrably successful in recent years (Veitch and

Clout 2002) but widely established, smaller mammal

species on larger islands may prove more difficult than

controlled interventions for larger and less abundant

invasive species with more restricted distributions e.g.

muskrat in Ireland (Fairley 1982) or coypu in Britain

(Gosling and Baker 1987). Control of invasive small

mammals and their impacts may only be effected

through long-term landscape and habitat management

wherein habitats which support native species are

preferentially enhanced to provide suitable refugia

from the interspecific impact of invaders. It is

important that this means of mitigation is implemented

as soon as possible in the process of invasion and that

management prescriptions are applied in areas not yet

invaded.

Acknowledgments Dr. Neil Reid was supported by the

Natural Heritage Research Partnership (NHRP) between the

Northern Ireland Environment Agency (NIEA) and Quercus,

Queen’s University Belfast (QUB). Dr. Mathieu Lundy was

supported by The National Parks and Wildlife Service,

Department of Arts, Heritage and the Gaeltacht (Republic of

Ireland). Licences to trap pygmy shrews (a protected species)

were issued by the National Parks and Wildlife Service,

Department of Arts, Heritage and the Gaeltacht (Republic of

Ireland) and the Northern Ireland Environment Agency,

Department of Environment (United Kingdom). We are

grateful to Dr. Sally Montgomery who provided invaluable

assistance in the field, whilst thanks also go to the farmers and

landowners of Ireland for their goodwill, interest and

hospitality. We are also grateful to Derek Yalden for

comments on an early draft of the manuscript and to two

anonymous referees for their contributions in improving the

final publication.

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