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InVEST Tier 1 Carbon Model
• In the Tier 1 model we es1mate carbon stock as a func1on of land use / land cover.
• Storage indicates the mass of carbon in an ecosystem at any given point in 1me.
• Sequestra+on indicates the change in carbon storage in an ecosystem over 1me.
• Valua1on is applied to sequestra1on
Carbon Storage and Sequestration
Tier 1 Carbon Storage Model
Atmosphere
Soil type, moisture Microbes, chemistry
Species Harvested Wood Products
Aboveground biomass
Belowground biomass
Dead wood
Atmosphere
Land management
Land use history
Soil carbon
Climate
Tier 1 Carbon Storage Model Atmosphere
Soil type, moisture Microbes, chemistry
Species Harvested Wood Products
Aboveground biomass
Belowground biomass
Dead wood
Atmosphere
Land management
Land use history
Soil carbon
5 pools x f(cost/ton) = Value
Climate
Sequestration and Value
2008
Net Present Value
Δ in C
2058
Net Present Value is a func1on of:
• Market discount rate • Rate of change in the social value of carbon • Social or market cost of carbon Carbon model is most appropriate for valuing the
Social cost of carbon: The price of current and future damage caused by releasing a ton of carbon into the atmosphere
Approach to Valuation
Input Data Required data:
A land use / land cover (LULC) map
Table of carbon pools (metric tons / hectare)
Op1onal data: • For calcua1ng C stored in harvested wood produtcs:
– Map of 1mber harvest land parcels with data on – frequency of harvest – annual harvest amount – decay rate of wood products – density / volume factors
• Future land use map
• Economic data (carbon value / price, discount rate)
Input Data
• Local plot studies • Published analyses on similar regions • IPCC tables
Carbon Pool Data Carbon Pool Data
• Map of current carbon storage (Mg/cell)
• Map of future carbon storage -‐ If future land use provided
• Carbon sequestra1on map = (future -‐ present carbon storage)
• Map of economic value of carbon sequestered
Output
• Simple, requires rela1vely liXle data, thus also works for data-‐sparse regions
• Both biophysical (carbon storage / sequestra1on) and economic valua1on modeling possible
Strengths
• Output is only as detailed and reliable as the land use classes and carbon pool data that are input.
• Carbon sequestra1on does not occur in an area unless the area’s land use changes over 1me or wood is harvested.
Limitations
• Simplified carbon cycle
• Economic valua1on assumes a linear trend in sequestra1on over 1me
Land cover transitions
T2
Storag
e in Biomass Reality
Model T1
Forest (young)
Forest (old)
T2 T1
Forest
• Land use planners: Compare consequences of future scenarios
• Ecosystem service tradeoffs
• Carbon market: First-‐pass analysis
• Not appropriate for precise cost-‐benefit analysis etc
Application
Gains and losses in carbon stocks from 2008 to 2058 in Sumatra, Indonesia
2008
Carbon gain
Carbon loss
2058
Dharmasraya district, Sumatra, Indonesia Carbon gains and losses under alterna1ve scenarios
Loss
Gain
2008 to Green Vision 2008 to Business as Usual Plan
Priority districts for inves1ng in forest carbon projects
High priority districts have: -‐ High deforesta1on risk -‐ Large biomass carbon stocks -‐ Rela1vely lower agricultural value