28
Invest With Confidence Monash Investors The Monash Absolute Investment Fund (MAIF) The Monash Absolute Investment Company Ltd (MA1) August 2020

Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

Invest With Confidence Monash Investors

The Monash Absolute Investment Fund (MAIF)The Monash Absolute Investment Company Ltd (MA1)

August 2020

Page 2: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

• Founded in 2012

• 60+ Years of combined investment experience

• Portfolio managers own the firm and have large holdings in the strategy

• Absolute return focus: active - benchmark unaware - stock size agnostic

• Strong absolute and relative track record since inception

• Lower beta than the market since inception

• One of the highest performers over multiple time periods in the Lonsecabsolute Australian equity peer group

About Monash Investors

2

Page 3: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

• An active Australian equity fund with a flexible mandate

• Aiming to achieve double digit returns over the long run, whilst limiting loss of capital over the medium term

• Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio

• A portfolio of compelling ideas : looking for >60% upside in the longs or -30% in the shorts

• Can invest in any ASX listed stock (long and short)

• Not tied to value or growth style – can do either subject to the cycle / stock

• Designed to be a complement to direct or index funds

What do we offer?

3

Page 4: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

Name & Role Qualifications Years of Experience

Years at MonashInvestors

Experience

Simon Shields Founder and PM

• CFA• B.Comm (Hons)• LLB• MBA

• 32 years • 8

• Monash Investors • UBS 5 years – DCF Style• Colonial First State 9 years – Growth Style• Rothschild/Westpac 9 years – Value Style

Shane FitzgeraldFounder and PM

• B.Comm (Hons) • 29 Years • 8

• Monash Investors • Former Head of JPMorgan Insurance and

Diversified Financial Research• Former ember of the multi award winning

JPMorgan Research Team

Sebastian CorreiaInvestment Analyst

• CA• B.Comm (Hons) • 9 Years • 2

• Monash Investors• EY (Ernst & Young) – Valuations and

Business Modelling, Risk and Transactions Advisory (7 years)

Sandra DonnarummaChief Operating Officer

• BA Acctg• CA• GAICD

• 32 Years • 5

• Monash Investors• Westpac Institutional, Deutsche Bank AG,

Boutique Fund Managers , Bankers Trust, KPMG

A team with multi decade, multi cycle and multi style experience manages the capital

4

Page 5: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

• Provide investors an investment strategy with a proven track record that they can’t implement for themselves

– Differentiated investment philosophy

– Proprietary fundamental stock research

– Sophisticated DCF modelling

– Long and Short

– Highly Active

• Do so in a way that is easy for investors to buy and sell units

• Two ways to invest– Retail unlisted managed fund (available direct or via platforms)

– Listed Investment Company (ASX: MA1)

• To be converted to a listed exchange traded managed fund (available through brokers, online and platforms) – subject to approval

• Provide regular income that can be relied upon

• Timely and comprehensive communication

Our objectives are centred on doing the right thing by investors – “invest with confidence”

5

Page 6: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

We offer one absolute return Australian equity strategy via two products : Unlisted and Listed

6

Monash Absolute Investment FundAPIR MON0001AU

Monash Absolute Investment Co*ASX : MA1

• Inception July 2012• Unlisted Managed Fund• Available on platforms• Daily priced• Trades at NAV• Management Fee 1.5% p.a. • Performance Fee 20% > RBA

Cash with HWM• Buy Sell Spread 0.30/0.30%

• Inception April 2016• Listed Investment Company• Trades at Discount / Premium to

NTA• Management Fee 1.5% p.a.• Performance Fee 20% > RBA

Cash with HWM

Unified by same philosophy, process and portfolio construction

* Proposal to convert the LIC to an ETMP – deed of implementation signed

Page 7: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

Key performance metrics on a page(After Fees, Since Inception 2 July 2012 to 31 July 2020)

7

9.60%Return p.a.After Fees

21% Average

Cash Weight

0.68 Average

Portfolio Beta

63%Positive Months

-29%Maximum Drawdown

15.6%Volatility p.a.

0.48Sharpe

109%Cumulative

Return

Page 8: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

Monthly and yearly returns show consistency but also volatility(After Fees, Since Inception July 2012 to 31 July 2020)

8

FY Jul (%)

Aug(%)

Sep(%)

Oct(%)

Nov(%)

Dec(%)

Jan(%)

Feb(%)

Mar(%)

Apr(%)

May(%)

Jun(%)

FYTD(%)

2012/13 1.46 -1.15 -0.20 1.81 1.09 2.91 3.90 4.39 2.00 1.13 -1.10 1.05 18.53

2013/14 5.57 1.40 7.08 2.96 -0.58 -0.47 0.86 2.62 4.72 -1.27 -0.54 -1.01 23.05

2014/15 3.06 2.32 -4.31 -0.22 -1.61 0.55 1.55 2.33 1.08 0.08 -0.55 -1.86 2.21

2015/16 6.57 0.22 -0.46 3.88 2.36 6.00 -4.97 -2.88 2.43 1.87 2.39 -3.84 13.62

2016/17 1.93 -1.11 0.73 0.75 -5.15 0.39 -4.01 -2.04 1.25 -2.74 -0.84 2.02 -8.78

2017/18 0.29 1.31 3.53 5.07 3.27 1.27 0.82 -2.40 -1.58 -4.24 3.81 -0.04 11.24

2018/19 3.35 -0.18 -0.24 -5.73 -0.37 -7.89 8.00 3.49 2.21 6.28 1.68 1.14 10.96

2019/20 4.83 0.77 5.04 -1.12 0.10 -0.11 4.20 -11.33 -20.04 20.69 13.71 -4.70 6.02

2020/21 3.48 3.48

Page 9: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

Returns have been delivered despite significant cash holdings, which is valuable in times of crisis or to take opportunities

SourcesMAIF : Monthly Performance Report & Unit Prices www.monashinvestors.com MA1: Announcements www.asx.com.auASX Indices: S&P Dow Jones Indices Peers: Winston Capital - Comparable Absolute Return Funds

9

Monash Fund Average Cash Held

Peer RankPrior Month

ASX200 Small Ords

1 Month 3.5% 13% 0.5% 1.4%

3 Months 12.1% 9% 2 / 15 7.6% 9.9%

1 Year 4.7% 16% 3 / 15 -9.9% -8.5%

2 Years pa 8.5% 15% 1 / 15 1.0% -0.8%

3 Years pa 10.5% 18% 1 / 14 5.4% 6.5%

5 Years pa 5.7% 20% 5 / 13 5.2% 7.9%

7 Years pa 7.6% 19% 3 / 12 6.8% 6.3%

MAIF Inception paFrom 2 July 2012

9.6% 21% 9.2% 5.9%

Returns (After Fees) to 31 July 2020

Page 10: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

Returns not generated through leverageSince Inception 2 July 2012 to 31 May 2020

10

Gross/Net Exposure

Page 11: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

Sell High / Buy Low – How our cash weight changed this year

11

8% Cash

20% Cash

40% Cash

50% Cash

34% Cash

9% Cash

1% Cash6% Cash

4% Cash

14% Cash

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

31-Dec-19 31-Jan-20 29-Feb-20 31-Mar-20 30-Apr-20 31-May-20 30-Jun-20

S&P

ASX

200

Pric

e (In

dexe

d)

S&P ASX 200 Price (Indexed) andMonash Investors' Investment Activity

Selling stocks that hit price targets and taking profits

CDC expects pandemic likely. Shorted airlines, travel agents casinos. Sold exposed stocks.

Pandemic news worsens. Shorted education, aged care sectors. Cash position reaches 50%.

Bargain prices emerged. Purchased cheap growth stocks without COVID-19 exposure.

Rebuilt existing positions, established new positions in quality, oversold companies and closed majority of short positions.

Page 12: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

PHILOSOPHY, STOCK SELECTION AND PORTFOLIO PARAMETERS

12

Page 13: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

Unique Investment Philosophy Shaped By 60+ Years Of Investing Experience

• Most stocks are fairly priced most of the time, but significant mispricing does occur

• Sometimes these stocks can be identified in advance because of recurring business situations or patterns of behaviour - we focus on these opportunities

13

Page 14: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

14

• Underestimation of significant change

• Analyst reputation management

• Drive by boards to exploit high ROE opportunities in their core business

• Limitations of company guidance

• Overlooked signals

• Business disruption

• Misjudging risk

• Corporate motives by brokers

• Lack of analyst coverage

• Pre-IPO discount

Examples Of Recurring Situations And Behaviours That Often Lead To Mispricing By The Market

Page 15: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

Focused On Asymmetric Payoffs That Have A Combination Of These Four G.I.V.E Attributes

15

InsightGrowth Value Event

• Misunderstood or Mispriced and we have a view on how it will be resolved

• High levels of EPS and CFPS growth

• Offer a large payoff to our assessed valuation

• Potentially have a near term catalyst

We Set The Bar High

Page 16: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

Top Holdings as at 31 July 2020

16

Stock Code Business Description Sector

Electro Optic Systems EOS Laser Based Tracking Applications Aerospace & Defence

Nearmap NEA Online Photomaps Application Software

Kogan* KGN Online Retailer Internet Retail

Credit Corp CCP Debt Collection Financial Services

Citadel Group CGL IT Hosting and Software Info Technology Services

Healthia HLA Physiotherapy and Podiatry Clinics Medical/Nursing Services

AfterPay Touch APT Buy Now Pay Later Financial Services

Jumbo Interactive JIN Online Lotteries Casino/Gaming

Infomedia IFM Automotive Component Information Application Software

People Infrastructure PPE Workforce Management Personnel Services

Total Weight 53.0%

*KGN added 3/8/20

Page 17: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

CASE STUDIES

17

Page 18: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

18

People Infrastructure – organic growth and acquisitions corporatising workforce managementGrowth• Revenue expected to grow >20% p.a. over next

3 years – Organic growth and acquisitions in high

margin specialist sectors: Disability, Nursing

• Additional acquisition opportunities in IT can expand EBIT margin further

• 98% repeat customer rate compounding revenue growth

Insight• A global leader in profitability with power to scale• Focuses on niche industries where it holds

sustained competitive advantages and pricing power

• Broad range roll-up opportunities• Diversified industries with focus on sectors

benefitting from economic tailwinds• Strategically placed to benefit from NDIS tailwind

Value• Our DCF is >120% above current share price• Low PE of 10.2x FY21• Good quality cash conversion at 90%• Short term stock price driven by results and

acquisition news as catalysts

Source: Company data

Source: Factset

Page 19: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

19

Electro Optic Systems – Winning the arms race

Growth• 3 year forward revenue CAGR > 40% pa• Market for RWS will double in size due to

emerging counter-drone role• EOS is creating a new space

communications business migrating customers to laser broadband

• New: Special Security Arrangement [SSA] with the US Department of Defence to undertake classified contracts in the US.

Insight• Developed laser technology with multiple uses• EOS Remote Weapon Systems are the cheapest,

lightest and most effective. 100% tender win rate• Lasers for satellite/debris monitoring• New: Debris management and missile defence• New: Broadband laser satellite communications• Expect increasing broker coverage

Value• Our DCF is >100% above current share price

without including space or communications • PE is 26x FY21 based on existing contracts

Source: Factset

Laser probe atmospheric correction Remote Weapon System

Page 20: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION AND RISK MANAGEMENT

20

Page 21: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

Portfolio Risk Management Supports The Stock Selection Process And Capital Preservation Focus

Feature Explanation

Diversified by

1. Stocks (10% max on purchase, 15% at any time)2. Sectors (20% max on purchase, 25% at any time)3. Investment Themes if correlated (max % as determined)4. Payoff time horizons

Stock exposures

1. Outlook 5-7% per stock. Portfolio typically: 60% +/- 10% 2. Event 2-3% per stock. Portfolio typically: 8% +/- 8% 3. Product launch 0.5-1.5%, Portfolio typically: 7% +/- 3% 4. In the case of Pre-IPO stocks, this is typically limited to 5% of the portfolio

position (maximum of 20% according to investment restrictions)

Portfolio exposures1. Net Exposure: Typically 75% +/- 15%. Max -50% to 150%2. Long Exposure: Typically 85% +/- 15%. Max 0% to 200%3. Short Exposure: Typically 10% +/- 10%. Max -100% to 0%

Liquidity management

1. Minimum 20% NAV realisable within 24 hours2. Minimum 50% NAV realisable within 5 days3. Minimum 80% NAV realisable within 10 days

§ Pre-IPO stocks are typically limited to 5% of the portfolio position (maximum of 20% according to investment restrictions)

21

Page 22: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

Our sell discipline is a key source of risk management and capital preservation

22

Type Sell event / trigger Examples

Outlook Stocks (e.g. >60% upside / -30% downside)

• Price

• Exit on Achievement of Price Target• PNI, CGF, KGN

• Trim weight as price rises• APT, EML, LOV

• Review on Price Fall• SDA

• Thesis • Exit on Investment Thesis Violation• CAT, SIV, PGC

• Early Warning

• 1/3 weight reduction on Short Interest Spike• GEM

• 1/3 weight reduction on Downward Earning Revision• EXP

• 1/3 weight reduction on Sign Post Miss• EHL

Event Stocks(e.g. short term trade)

• Price • Exit on Pre-defined price target or stop loss• JBH (short – up/stop loss), WHC (up to price target)

• Event • Exit post event effect or date deadline• SRX

Page 23: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

• Screening Tool run daily (SSM and IFM examples)

• Sign Posts Spreadsheet run daily

Proprietary ‘signposts’ system to track changes to each investment thesis in real time

23

Portfolio CheckPreliminary Days to % Short Year 2 Consensus

Sign Price Upside Liquidate 3mths 1mth 1 Week Now 3mths 1mth 1 Week Now ChangePosts Target 25% Turnover Weight Ago Ago Ago Ago Ago Ago Week

AJX-ASX $0.29 Interim 75% 89.9 days 2.24% nc nc nc nc Revenue na na na na naAPT-ASX $34.00 Interim 27% 0.2 days 4.27% 5.43% 4.88% 4.01% 3.98% EBITDA 89.8 74.0 72.1 72.1 0.0%

Stock Price Interim Sign Post 1 Sign Post 2 Sign Post 3 Timing 1 Timing 2 Timing 3 Compliant Last Update Kick the CanTarget or SP1 SP2 SP3 Last Update

FinalAJX-ASX $0.289 Interim >20% qoq growth from

Alexicool Alexiflam FR - Combat positive update on data package

Alexiflam FR - All Uniforms, final supply agreement with Pine Belt

31-Jul-19 30-Sep-19 31-Dec-19

26/03/2019APT-ASX $26.000 Interim On track for $1bn in GMV by

Jun19 in US, was $260 at Dec18

On track for $4.6bn in GMV by Jun19 in Aust, was $2.0bn at Dec18

No adverse regulatory noises around whether APT is a credit product

30-May-19 30-May-19 31-Dec-19

21/03/2019

Page 24: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

Portfolio snapshot as at 31 July 2020

Type # of Positions Weight MAIF # of Positions Weight MA1

Outlook Stocks –Long 20 83% 20 84%

Outlook Stocks -Short 2 -5% 2 -2%

Event, Pair and Group Trades -Long

3 12% 3 8%

Event, Pair and Group Trades -Short

1 -2% 1 0%

Cash N/A 12% N/A 9%

Total 26 100% 26 100%

Gross Exposure 101% 102%

Net Exposure 88% 88%

24

Page 26: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

For all portfolio related enquires, please contact,

Simon Shields Principal, Monash [email protected]: +61 407 661 489Level 5, 139 Macquarie StreetSydney NSW 2000www.monashinvestors.com

For all Business Development enquiries, please contact

Stephen Robertson Andrew Fairweather Cameron HarrisFounding Partner, Winston Capital Founding Partner, Winston Capital Business Development, Winston [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]: +61 418 387 427 M: +61 401 716 043 M+ 61 400 248 435Suite 2, Level 8, 66 Hunter St Level 3, 3A Davies Rd Suite 2, Level 8, 66 Hunter StSydney NSW 2000 Australia Claremont WA. 6010 Sydney NSW 2000 Australiawww.winstoncapital.com.au www.winstoncapital.com.au www.winstoncapital.com.au

26

Contact Details

Page 27: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

This presentation is issued by Monash Investors Pty Limited ABN 67 153 180 333, AFSL 417 201 (“Monash Investors”) as authorisedrepresentatives of Winston Capital Partners Pty Ltd ABN 29 159 382 813, AFSL 469 556 (“Winston Capital”) for the provision of generalfinancial product advice in relation to the Monash Absolute Investment Fund ARSN 606 855 501 (“Fund”) and Monash Absolute InvestmentCompany Limited (MA1). Monash Investors is the investment manager of the Fund and MA1.The Trust Company (RE Services) Limited ABN 45 003 278 831, AFSL 235 150 (“Perpetual”) is responsible entity of, and issuer of units in, theFund. The inception date of the Fund is 2nd July 2012.The information provided in this document is general information only and does not constitute investment or other advice. The content of thisdocument does not constitute an offer or solicitation to subscribe for units in the Fund or an offer to buy or sell any financial product.Accordingly, reliance should not be placed on this document as the basis for making an investment, financial or other decision. This informationdoes not take into account your investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation. Monash Investors, Winston Capital and Perpetualdo not accept liability for any inaccurate, incomplete or omitted information of any kind or any losses caused by using this information. Anyinvestment decision in connection with the Fund should only be made based on the information contained in the disclosure document for theFund. A product disclosure statement (“PDS”) issued by Perpetual dated 12 September 2017 is available for the Fund. You should obtain andconsider the PDS for the Fund before deciding whether to acquire, or continue to hold, an interest in the Fund. Initial Applications for units in theFund can only be made pursuant to the application form attached to the PDS.Performance figures assume reinvestment of income. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Comparisons areprovided for information purposes only and are not a direct comparison against benchmarks or indices that have the same characteristics as theFund.Monash Investors, Winston Capital and Perpetual do not guarantee repayment of capital or any particular rate of return from the Fund and donot give any representation or warranty as to the reliability, completeness or accuracy of the information contained in this document. All opinionsand estimates included in this document constitute judgments of Monash Investors as at the date of this document are subject to change withoutnotice. Perpetual is not responsible for this document.The rating contained in this document is issued by SQM Research Pty Ltd ABN 93 122 592 036 AFSL 421913. SQM Research is an investmentresearch firm that undertakes research on investment products exclusively for its wholesale clients, utilising a proprietary review and star ratingsystem. The SQM Research star rating system is of a general nature and does not take into account the particular circumstances or needs ofany specific person. The rating may be subject to change at any time. Only licensed financial advisers may use the SQM Research star ratingsystem in determining whether an investment is appropriate to a person’s particular circumstances or needs. You should read the productdisclosure statement and consult a licensed financial adviser before making an investment decision in relation to this investment product. SQMResearch receives a fee from the Fund Manager for the research and rating of the managed investment scheme.Independent Investment Research (IIR) has awarded a Recommended rating for the Monash Absolute Investment Company Limited (ASX:MA1). To access the IRR report, please refer to our website at www.monashinvestors.com or click here

Disclaimer

27

Page 28: Invest With Confidence Monash Investors · of capital over the medium term • Concentrated e.g. Top 10 stocks currently > 50% of the portfolio • A portfolio of compelling ideas

Performance disclaimer

28

Source: MAIF : Monthly Performance Report & Unit Prices www.monashinvestors.com

In relation to MAIF, The Trust Company (RE Services) Limited (ABN 45 003 278 831, AFSL 235 150) (“Perpetual”) is the responsible entity of, and issuer of units in Fund, and Monash Investors is the investment manager of the Fund. All opinions and estimates constitute judgements of Monash Investors and are subject to change without notice. This information is provided for general information purposes only, and is not to be construed as solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial product. Accordingly, reliance should not be placed on this information as the basis for making an investment, financial or other decisions. This information does not take into account your investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation. Whilst every effort is taken to ensure this information is accurate, its accuracy, reliability or completeness is not guaranteed. A product disclosure statement (PDS) issued by Perpetual dated 12th September 2017 is available for the Fund. You should obtain and consider the PDS before deciding whether to acquire, or continue to hold, an interest in the Fund. Initial applications for units in the Fund can only be made pursuant to the application form attached to the PDS