1

InvestigationaboutLithium-IonBatteryMarketEvolutionandfuturePotentialofSecondaryRaw

MaterialfromRecycling

Reiner Weyhe, Xiaofei Yang

ACCUREC Recycling GmbH, Wiehagen 12 - 14, 45472 Mülheim an der Ruhr, e-mail: info@accurec.de

1 Abstract

Accurecisamedium-sized,dedicatedbatteryrecyclingcompany,whichwasestablished

in 1996. Innovative recycling processes for nickel-cadmium, nickel-metal hydride,

lithium-ion batteries and other specific primary portable batteries have already been

installedatindustrialscale.Someoftheseprocessesaredevelopedincooperationwith

theInstituteofProcessMetallurgyandMetalRecyclingatRWTHAachenUniversityand

reflect the status of Best Available Technology (BAT). This systematic research and

implementationoftheprocesseswerehonoredbytheawardofEfficientRawMaterial

fromGermanRawMaterialAgency(DERA) in2012,aswellas theEuropeanECOPOL-

prizein2013.

ThisinvestigationaimstoidentifyfuturesecondarymetalpotentialfromLi-IonEndof

Life (EOL)batteries. It considersmultipledata sources, influencing factors, interviews

and conservative estimations to model this future raw material feedstock until year

2020.Firstofall,thepastandfutureEuropeanmarketvolumeoflithium-ionbatteriesis

discussedby country, application and chemistry. Further to this, the factor of lifetime

and hoarding effect is investigated, so that the prognosis of EOL batteries is made

available. Besides, other factors staying behind, which reduce the mass of collected

batteries are considered and determined as well. The weight of potential collected

batteries,whichcanentertherecycling,andtheirfuturemetalcontent,arecalculatedby

thedatasources.

2 Introduction

Therechargeablelithiumbatterymarkethasalreadybeengrowingrapidlyinthefieldof

portable electronics (cellular phones, laptops, tablets etc.) for a decade. This

development has been accelerated through the electrification of transportation, for

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example, E-Bikes and scooters. Besides, theworldwide increase in demand of hybrid

and full-electric vehicles, combining with the continuous decrease of battery

manufacturingcost, leadstoamoreandmorewidespreadusageofelectricvehicles.A

rapidgrowthinthisfieldcanalsobeexpectedinnextdecades.

Ingeneral the legislationofbatteryrecyclinggotabreaktroughwiththeEUDirective

2006/66/EC, a pioneering new regulation, adopting the requirement of marking,

registration, collection and recycling of batteries. The collection rate was defined

graduallyforthefirsttime(25%in2014and45%in2016),andarecoveryrequirement

forthesecollectedEOLbatterieswasissuedatmin.75%forNiCd,65%forPband50%

forotherbatteries.Thisrecoveryobligationwasfurtherspecifiedasrecyclingefficiency

(RE)inaseparatedirective493/2012/EU.Itprescribeshowtocalculateandproofthe

RE.

3 ResearchonEULi-Ionbatterymarket:methodologyanddatasources

To estimate the future European recycling potential from lithium-ion batteries, the

material flow analysis is performed according to Figure 3.1, where the historic and

predicted Put On Market (POM) data by applications are analyzed first. After

acknowledgingthemarketshareofdifferentcountriesinEU,POMdatabycountrywill

becalculated.Similarly,POMdatainthecategoryofdifferentcathodematerialswillalso

beconductedbythepercentageofdifferentchemistriesfordifferentapplications.Thus,

threecategoriesofapplication,countryandchemistrywillrunthroughfollowingsteps

inthewholeinvestigation.Secondly,theanalysisandquantificationwhenabatterywill

reach its EOLwill be conducted, while the technical and emotional reasonswon’t be

illuminatedindetail. Inthethirdstep, theefficiencyofcollectionofdiscardedlithium-

ion batteries by country for different applications is discussed. So the systematic

investigationdescribesa forecastofpotentialcollecteddiscarded lithium-ionbatteries

until 2020. In the end, the amount of potential recoverablemetals is calculatedwith

metalcontentsofdifferentcathodematerials.

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3.1 Data sources and categories

To determine the weight of POM of lithium-ion batteries, different applications are

analyzedandinformationsfrommanufacturersandsuppliersareusedasdatasources.

In essence, these are represented by subject-specific sources: Avicenne/F [1],

Statista/DE [2], Umicore/BE [3], R. Berger/DE [4] and national/international

associations ZIV/DE [5], ILZSG [6], ACEA/BE [7], Recharge/BE [8], and EBRA/BE [9].

There have been also interviewswith batterymanufacturers and Original Equipment

Manufacturer (OEM), publications in newspapers and magazines, and conference

attachments. Depending on interests, data sources are in units of number, turnover,

energy content, etc.,while theweightofbatteryproduction/sales isnevermentioned,

buttherelevantanalysisofthesecondaryrawmaterialsisintonnage.

Inordertouseandcomparesources,dataindifferentunitshavetobeconverted.The

sources,which are adoptedmostly in this investigation, are the sale of appliances.To

convert sale into the weight of batteries, average weights of batteries for each

applicationareestimated,whicharelistedinTable3.1.Besides,theworldwidesaledata

POM to

by country

by chemistry

EOL to

Collected to

Lifetime + Hording Effect

Collection Rate

% MetalContent

by application

by country

by chemistry

by application

by country

by chemistry

by application Potential recycled metals

to

Figure3.1Li-ionbatterflowanalysis:methodology

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forcellularphones,portablePCandautomobilesarealsoavailable.ThustheEUmarket

share needs to be considered for the calculation of EU sales. The EUmarket share of

cellularphoneturnstobeabout17%from2007to2009.Thenitdecreasesto14.14%in

the year of 2013. Same share is used for the prognosis in the future. The EUmarket

share of portable PC shows similar slight decrease through year, which was 29% in

2007andisforecastedtobe16%in2020.FortheapplicationofE-bikes,notalle-bikes

areequippedwithlithium-ionbatteriesbefore2014.Thegrowingpenetrationof50%in

2007and80%in2013isassumedforlithium-ionbatteries[6].

Table3.1Averagecellweightsofbatteriesfordifferentapplications

CellularPhone 22g(2007)-26g(2010)PortablePC 390g(2007)-300g(2010)Tablets 188g

Powertool 500gE-Bike 3000g

0Automobile150kg(EV)

40kg(PHEV)

Deviationispossiblebecauseoftheaccuracyofsourcesandtheconversionofunitsof

the data. When deviation is low, an average number is calculated und used. When

deviation is high, the plausibility of the data sources has been investigated further in

ordertoexcludeunverified,doubtfulsources.Alldatasourcesandanalyticaldetermined

data are considered and evaluated conservatively to avoid an unrealistic high

expectationofthematerialflow.

To calculate the final potential recyclable value of respectivemetals of the discarded

lithium-ion batteries, its categories of application, country and chemistry are

considered. Not only the different power performance of the chemistry, but also the

usagecorrespondingtoapplicationscanleadtoverydifferentlifetimeandreturnpath.

Itisobviousthat,forexample,thebatteriesofmobilephonesareinthechargingcycle

almosteveryday inthefirst threeyears,whose lifetimeisconsiderablydifferent from

batteriesofnon-professionalpowertoolsthatareusedonlyoccasionallyorbatteriesof

electric vehicles that are constantly recuperated in micro cycles with a high current.

Besidesthecollectionandreturnpathofthebatteries,thevolumedependsconsiderably

onthecategoryofapplications,consumerbehaviorsanddifferentnationalimplemented

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legislations. Commonly, the division of applications is subdivided into followingmain

groups:

• Cellularphones

• PortablePCs

• Tablets

• PowerTools

• E-bikes

• Automobile

• Others

Different cathodematerialsaredecidedbyperformanceof electrochemistry to realize

application-oriented properties. The decision of the properties in a customer-sized

batterycellismadeupofnecessary:

• Powerdensity

• Capacity

• Cyclesstability/lifetime

• Highcurrentcapability

• Storageconditions/temperaturestability

• Safetyaspects

• Cost

In essence, the electrode systems in this investigation are distinguished as: lithium

cobalt oxide (LCO), lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC), lithium iron

phosphate (LFP), lithiummanganeseoxide (LMO)and lithiumnickel cobalt aluminum

oxide(NCA).

Thegoodcapacityandoverchargestability,aswellasahighvoltagemakepurecobalt-

basedcells (LCO) tobe the initialpreferredbatterysystemforconsumerapplications.

Buttheincreasingrawmaterialcostandsensitivityontemperaturestabilitymadethe

marketingshareofLCOdecline, substitutingcobaltbymanganeseandnickel.This so-

calledNCMsystembecomesanalternative,whichistechnicallymatureandeconomical.

Todayitisthedominatingmassproductionchemistry,alsobecauseitallowsvaryingthe

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mixingratioofthesethreemetalsinordertoprovideawiderangeofcustomer-oriented

technicalfeatures[1,4,10-12].

The pure manganese cells (LMO) impresses with high voltage and power, but still

suffers from several technical performances like capacity fade orweak cycle stability.

Becauseofthis,itisstillapreferredchoiceforapplicationswithhighcircuitdemandlike

power tools. Incontrast to this, lithium ironphosphatecells (LFP)have less favorable

performances, such as low cell voltage (3.3V), while showing a moderate limiting

behavior, particularly in the case of a good thermal stability [13]. Therefore, these

materialsarecommonlyusedforlaminate/pouchcellsthataresensitivetomechanical

impact. Applications of transportation, such as E-bikes and automotive batteries, the

usageof LMOandLFP is increasing aswell. Alsobatterieswith a cathodematerial of

nickel,cobaltandaluminummixture(NCA)showahighpowerreputation,andimprove

currently their performance in terms of safety – having a no relevant market share

today,butpotentialperspectiveinfuture[1,4,10,14].

3.2 Socio-technical factors influencing End of Life scenarios

To determine an EOL scenario for lithium-ion batteries, two important periods are

neededtoidentify.Oneisthetechnicallifetime,i.e.theperiodoftimewhenlithium-ion

batteries are technically used, while the other one is the additional storage time

betweentheendofusageandactualdiscardbyendusers,whichisreferredashoarding

time.

The technical usage limit of a battery pack embedding a BMS (battery management

system) isdeterminedby the thresholdvalueofabout25-40%lossof thecapacity. In

thatcaseasafety-relatedforcedshutdowniscommonlycaused.Dependingonthetype

ofapplicationsandindividualhabits,thepointcanbereachedaround800-1500charge

cycles.Forexample,thebatterieswouldbereplacedforBEVvehiclesat25%lossofthe

capacity,whichcanbearoundthewarrantyperiodor8-10yearsofanormal lifetime

[12,15,16].

Forrarelyorseasonalusedapplications,suchasE-bikes,thereisalsoanearlypossible

loss of capacity, and therefore premature reason to discard,with the poor storage of

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lithium-ionbatteries.Thelifetimeisespeciallydependingonthecorrecttricklecharging

and storage temperature. Study shows that the duration of the lifetime of lithium-ion

batteries isabout8years,whentheyarestoredunderan idealstoragecondition.The

requirements of an ideal storage condition are usually not fulfilled, so that a shorter

lifetime of lithium-ion batteries,which is around3-5 years for certain applications, is

possible[17].

The defective batteries (production or manufacturing defects and scraps) are not

includedinthescenario.Butthe lifetimeofappliancesandlifetimeofbatteriesshould

betakenintoconsideration.Lithium-ionbatteriesinconsumerapplicationscanalsobe

disposedbecauseofthechangeofmoderntechnologiesagainstout-of-datetechnologies,

evenbeforebatteriesreachatechnicalEOL.(Forexample,buy-inactions,newphones

withcontractextension,etc.)Incontrast,forapplicationsoftransportation,thelifetime

ofappliancesislongerthanbatteries,forinstance,e-bikesandautomobiles.

Thehoarding effect also depends on applications. In general the period of hoarding

time isexpectedtobe longer forconsumerapplications thancommercialor industrial

applications.Forexample,specialistworkshopswillmanagethedisposalforconsumed

batteries,suchasbatteriesforautomobilesorprofessionalpowertools,intensivelyand

timely.Incontrasttothat,thehoardinginafamilyhouseholdisindeedcommon,butits

reason could be of different motivations. It is difficult to identify whether hoarding

occursbecauseofsecondlifeusage(e.g.mobilephonesforkids),lassitudeofconsumer

fordedicateddisposalorkeepingbatteriesorapplicationsasakindofreserve.Hoarding

is not yet intensively investigated, so that only a few statistical data have been

integrated.Lifetimeincludinghoardingperiodhasthereforebeensetbyinvestigationof

batteryagebyapplications(internallyandexternalstudies).

Bothofthetimeperiods(technicallifetimeandhoardingperiod)dependstronglyonthe

categoryof application, so theyareanalyzed separately.Mostof the factorsdiscussed

abovearegivenbyliteraturesinawiderange,sothatanaveragelifetimeoflithium-ion

batteries can't be determined unambiguously. In fact the end of use of consumed

batteries distributes with different rates (according to applications) in the following

yearsaftersale.

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Aftertheanalysisaboveandgettingaccordancewithliteratures[14,18,19],Table3.2

figures out the discard distribution of lithium-ion batteries for main categories of

application.Itshowstheevolutionofpercentageofdisposalinthefollowingyearsafter

thesale.Thefactof“disposal”doesnotnecessarilymeanthatapplications/batteriesare

feedtodedicatedcollectionpoints–itdoesjustindicatethattheownergetsridofit–

wherever it is ending up in a waste stream (e.g. Waste Electrical and Electronic

Equipment-scrap (WEEE) collection, battery collection, conventional waste bin with

furtherincinerationetc.).

Table3.2Discarddistributionsoflithium-ionbatteriesbyapplicationYears CellularPhone PortablePC Tablet PowerTool E-Bike Auto Others1 1% - 2% 1% 1% - -2 3% - 3% 2% 1% - 13%3 4% 1% 5% 3% 2% - -4 5% 4% 7% 7% 3% - 22%5 10% 7% 12% 15% 5% 1% -6 14% 9% 16% 16% 8% 2% 28%7 15% 11% 20% 14% 15% 2% -8 14% 11% 20% 12% 17% 4% 24%9 11% 9% 12% 9% 13% 7% -10 9% 8% 2% 7% 10% 10% 13%11 6% 7% - 5% 8% 11% -12 5% 6% - 4% 7% 10% -13 4% 5% - 3% 6% 8% -

For cellular phones, the discard distribution shows a long tail since there is a strong

second-hand or -use market at around 7 years after its purchase. Portable PCs for

professional usagewill probably be discarded closely after usage, while end users of

privatelaptopsprefertokeepthemupto10yearsfurtherbecauseofthepersonaldata

storage or second use, which finally postpones the date of disposal. Besides, electric

automobiles have a longer lifetime than other applications because of the advanced

BMS. Thus the cumulative discard distributions don’t reach 100% within the time

rangesthisresearchhascovered.

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3.3 Return and collection of consumed batteries

Sofar,onlyinfluencingfactors,whichdeterminethetimeperioduntilEOL-Lithium-Ion

batteries are “Ready for Collection” have been analyzed.Whether these batteries are

finallyrecycledornot,stilldependsonadditionalfactors:

- Europeanlegislation(inparticularEUDirective66/2006/EC)

- Profoundness of national implementation of this legislation -which could vary

fromminimumrequirementsofEU-legislationanddependsonfollowingdetails:

o Monopolistic or competitive approach of CRO (collection and recycling

organizationonbehalfofproducersresponsibility)

o MonetarybudgetavailableforCRO´s

o Intensity of PR (public relation) and advertisement to motivate for

dedicatedcollection

o Consideration of WEEE-schemes as source of rechargeable batteries

(applianceswithembeddedbatteries)

o Knowhowandsortingqualityofservicecompanies

According to the EU legislation, member states must achieve a collection rate for

portablebatteriesofat least25%in2012and45%in2016.Thisrate isbasedonthe

averagePOMvalueincurrentandtwoprecedingyears.However,thecurrentrealand

expected return rates are regionally, significantly different. According an EPBA study,

only 3 countries were not able to fulfill the first threshold in 2012 [9]. Own

investigationshaveevenshownlowercollectionrates.Itisexpectedthatthenumberof

countries,whichwon’tsucceedthresholdII(45%)in2016willbesignificantlyhigher.

The fact that newmember states stay far behind the requirement is due to the early

stage of collection learning curve; this matter is informally tolerated. Other, well

developedcountrieslikeSpainandItalyneedtoimprovetheiroveralleffortsintermsof

PR,numberofcollectionpointsandetc.tocatchuptheirfigures.

Besides,pathsofcollectioncanalsobedifferent:itdependsonbatteryapplicationsand

is influencing dramatically the success of CRO´s. Standard collection paths are done

troughmunicipalityandretailshopcollection.ButasignificantamountofEOLbatteries

are still disposed off along with conventional household garbage. Further more,

batteries embedded in WEEE appliances are disassembled manually at minority.

Consequently, themarketshareofsecondarybatteries,which isdissipative lost in the

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stream of electronic waste, is growing fast. Summarizing, it can be stated that a

collectionisgoingtobesuccessfulif:

- Thecollectionisorganizedcloselytoconsumerenvironment(quickandeasy).

- A high return rate ofWEEE combinedwith consequent extraction of batteries

enablesahighnumberofreturnedrechargeablebatteries.

Considering all boundary conditionsmentioned above, theweight of EOL lithium-ion

batteries,whichwillbecollectedforrecyclinginthefuturewithinEUcanbeprognosed.

Theamountofcomprisedrecyclablemetalscanbedeterminedafterwardsbytheweight

ofcollectedlithium-ionbatteriesdifferentiatedbyapplicationandchemistryofcathode

materials.

4 ResearchonMarketEvolutionandCollection:Results

4.1 Historical and future POM data of lithium-ion batteries

Figure4.1showsthetonnageoflithium-ionbatteriessalesinthecategoryofapplication.

A significant and stable growth of 3000-5000 tons per year in sales can be observed

from2007to2014.Year2008and2009ismarkedbyarelativeshortperiodofglobal

economy crisis. Starting from 2010, the increase is dominated by new Li-Ion related

products, specifically electric automobiles and tablets. After 2015 the increase is

foreseentobegentle,butanincreaseof2000-3000tonsperyearcanbestillkept.

Thecumulativemarketofportableelectronics(category1-4)isrelativelystable,andthe

increase ismainlydrivenby the spreadof electric vehicles.Even theportablemarket

showsastableincrease,asthemarketshareofapplicationschangethroughyears.The

widespreadoftabletscanrestrainandevencutdownthedevelopmentofthemarketof

portablePCs.Incontrast,theamountoflithium-ionbatteriesforcellularphonesonthe

figurereflectsthesaturationofEUmarket,sincethereisonlyreplacementbusinessfor

mobile phones. The steady increase of power tools from 2010 is mainly due to the

legislative-driven replacement of the existing NiCd-battery system [20]. It shows a

relativelystablemarketafterwards.Thetechnologyoflithium-ionbatteriesalsopoints

to the fast-developing electric bikes. Since the lifetime of batteries is far shorter than

bikes, the replacement of batteries for the sectionofE-bikes explains thehigh sale of

batteriesforthisappliance[5,6,21].

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Inthefieldofelectricautomobile,themarketpenetrationofhybridvehicles(HEV)and

plug-inhybridvehicles(PHEV)indicatesanadditionalincreaseoflithium-ionbatteries.

However, the rising price of petrol leads to a further demand of increasing technical

efficiency in order to compensate the different kinds of rising operating costs [1, 14].

The pure electric vehicles (BEV), which are driven exclusively by the technology of

lithium-ion batteries, are still in the launch phase. It ismost likely to get aminor, or

niche market for short distance transportation and implementation of new mobility

concepts (car-sharing, etc.) [20, 22]. The comparison of the forecast and demand of

lithium-ionbatteries fromdifferentstudies iswidelydistributed in the fieldofelectric

vehicles [1, 14, 23-25]. This is mainly due to different growth expectations of these

studies,andtheaccuracyofconsiderationalsoresultsverydifferentweightsofbattery

packsinHEV,PHEVandBEV.Inaddition,futurebatterycelltechnologymightdevelop

e.g. pouch cells, with performance-enhancing electrolytes, better active materials,

leadingtoamoderatedgrowthexpectation[1,4].

Figure4.1POMoflithium-ionbatteriesinEU28byapplication(2007-2020)

In figure 4.2 the POM tonnage of lithium-ion batteries is represented in category of

chemistry according to the most important cathode materials. LCO has grown and

dominated the market until 2014 and foreseen to stay steady the next 5 years.

AdditionalincreaseofLi-IonmarketisgeneratedbythecathodematerialNCM,possibly

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performing a comparable strong market share of 45% in 2020 with LCO. The LFP

system also shows a significant growth,which is essentially a result of good thermal

stability,highcurrentcapabilityand low internal resistance [13].Themain forecasted

area of LFP application focuses on the transportation section,which includes both E-

bikesandelectricvehicles.

Figure4.2POMoflithium-ionbatteriesinEU28bychemistry(2007-2020)

4.2 Historical and future EOL data of lithium-ion batteries

Considering the socio-economic factors in section3.2, the lifetime–which is the time

when the batteries are used functionally - can be determined. In addition with the

empiricalhoardingeffect–whichistheperiodoftimewhenbatteriesarestillkeptbut

withoutanyintendedfunctionalusage-theEOLscenariocanbeconducted.

Figure4.3finallyshowstheresultingmassofEOLLi-Ionbatteriesfrom2010to2020,

differentiated by cathodematerials. The LCO system is still dominating the discarded

tonnage,whileasimilargrowthiscontributedbyNCM-applicationsaswell.Amaturity

ofLCOchemistriesinthewastestreamisrecognizableandadeclinebeyond2020can

beexpected.TheenormousgrowthofNCM-batteriesthesedaysisevolvingitsimpacton

battery scrapmarket after2020.Nevertheless, amassof 15.000 tons already reaches

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theirendoflifein2015,tobedoubledwithinfollowing3years.In2020,39000tonsof

consumedlithium-ionbatterieswillbereadyforcollectioninEU.

Figure4.3EOLoflithium-ionbatteriesinEU28bychemistry(2010-2020)

4.3 Historical and future data of collected lithium-ion batteries for recycling

EU countries like Belgium, Germany, France and Netherlands, have a well-organized

reverselogisticsystem,dedicatedtodiscardedbatteriesformorethantenyears.Some

othereconomicallyimportantcountries,suchasUK,orevennewmemberstatesbegan

the implementation of the EU directive late and started collection from about 2010.

Accordingly, different countries are atdifferent stagesof the collection learning curve

andstillneedto invest inconsumereducationconcerninghazardouswasteawareness

andwaste behavior.Most end users in EU countries still discard consumed batteries

with household garbage. Namely Belgium and Netherlands have been successful to

improvetheircollectioneffortstoapproximately40-50%ofEOLportablebatteriesthat

could have been returned in 2013 - while this number is less than 15% in other

countries,likeUK,RomaniaandCyprus[9].Thecollectionrateoflithium-ionbatteriesis

evenmuchlower,whichisonlyaround5%inthelasttenyear[8].

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With considerations of all previous data and assumptions, the calculation model has

been compiled and additionally crosschecked with reliable industrial sources from

CRO´s (Collection and Recycling Organization) respective concerned association like

EBRA[26]andRecharge[8].Hereafter,all28differentcountriesrelatedcollectionrates

forEOLLi-Ionbatteries,andthedifferentiationofapplicationandchemistryis leading

toaconsolidatednumberofcollectedbatteriesforrecyclinginEurope.

Figure4.4Collectedlithium-ionbatteriesforrecyclinginEU28(2010-2020)

Li-Ionbatteryscraphasarisenatthebeginningofthisdecadewithamoderategrowth

up to 2000 tons in 2014. As it can be seen in Figure 4.4, beyond 2015 the annual

accelerationofcollected lithium-ionbatteries isexpected tokeepwith1000 tons.The

delayed development indicates clearly the effective lifetime and hoarding effect of

lithium-ion batteries. Until 2020, there seems to be no saturation or slow down of

collection, which is due to a legislative mandatory improvement of CRO´s result,

combinedwithitsinitialfastgrowthofbatteriessalesbefore2010.

Furtherforecast(>2020)islinkedwithcriticaluncertainties–andneedstoconsiderthe

improvement of consumer education and an economic-technical limitation of the

collectionrate.Acollectionrateof45to55%isagreedtobeasuccessforacompliance

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schemesothatafurthergrowthofLi-Iontonnageisjustreflectingitsportablebattery

marketshare.

Referring to the details of Figure 4.4, the totalmass of collected lithium-ion batteries

with the cathode material LCO keeps increasing, but its share starts to decline after

stayingatpeakof50%from2014.ItisworthtomentionthattheshareofNCMsystem

shows an adverse trend. Beyond 2019, NCM will dominate the collected lithium-ion

batteries chemistry, since it is equipped more with power tools, e-bikes and

automobiles, whose return rates are higher than portable communication electronics

(e.g.cellularphones,laptops,tablets).

Figure4.5ComparisonofEOLversuscollectedlithium-ionbatteriesinEU28

Concerningthecollectionefficiencyoflithium-ionbatteries,thereturnpathofbatteries

has a strong influence, beside the general factor of legislative mandatory collection

targets.Well known from our daily live,more andmore products are equippedwith

embeddedrechargeablebatteries(iPhone, tablets,etc.).Neitherprofessionals,norend

users will disassemble the batteries after the termination of the usage or before

discarding it.Then,batteriesbecomeapartofWEEE,wherethebattery isanextreme

minor and in general tolerated impurity. Today,WEEE processing is not specified to

treataLi-Ionbatteryaccordingitspotentialfirerisk,andinmostcasesnotequippedto

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extractbatteriesmanuallyor semi-automated.This isgoing tobe themost important,

dissipativeleakagedrainofindustrialandstrategicmetalsfrombatteries.

Thisdiscrepancyofsustainabilityisaproductdriventrendandexplainstheimpressive

comparison between EOL (ready for collection) and effectively collected lithium-ion

batteriesinEUfrom2010to2020,illustratedadditionallywithFigure4.5.

4.4 Potential scondary metals from collected and recycled lithium-ion batteries

Depending on the Li-Ion battery chemistry, a different average composition has been

reported and figured out in Table 4.1. Historically, most consumer applications have

beenconstructedwithsteelbatteryhousing,butan increasingshareofapplications is

madetodaybyaluminumcases(e.g.mobile,automotive)andpouchcellconstructions

(PC, tablet, others). In addition, aluminum and copper are always added as electrode

foils. Besides,metals in different oxidation stage from cathode activemass contribute

phosphorus,cobalt,nickelandmanganesebetween8%and19%.High-gradegraphiteis

givenupto16%,whereasLithium,whichgrantsthenametothisbatterytype, isonly

lessthan2%.

Table4.1MetalcontentofconsumerapplicationswithLCO,NMCandLMO

LCO NMC LMO

CellhousingSteel 19% 18% 19%Al 0% 0% 0%

Plastics 1% 1% 1%

AnodeC 16% 16% 16%Cu 8% 7% 8%

Cathode

Mn 0% 6% 8%Li 2% 2% 2%Co 19% 6% 0%Ni 0% 4% 0%Al 4% 3% 4%Fe 0% 0% 0%P 0% 0% 0%Ti 0% 0% 0%O 10% 9% 13%

Others 5% 11% 13%Separator Plastics 3% 3% 3%Electrolyte Solvent 14% 12% 14%

Sum 100% 100% 100%

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Figure4.6Potentialrecycledmetalsfromlithium-ionbatteriesinEU28(2010-2020)

Thetonnagesofmetals,whicharetheoreticallyrecoverable,arevisualizedinFigure4.6.

Asshown,thereisanexponentialgrowththroughtheyears,inparalleloffigure4.4.In

2014,therecycledmetalshavebeenonlyabout1.000tons,butit isestimatedtogrow

up to 4000 tons of metals until 2020. Because of the initial increase of LCO based

lithium-ionbatteriesputonmarket,cobaltkeepsgrowingfromonly16tonsin2010to

760tonsin2020,butshowsamaturitywithanexpecteddeclinebeyond2020.

5 Discussions

5.1 Sensitivity analysis

Twomain converting factors have been investigated: the period of time for reaching

EOL(i.e.technicallifetimeandperiodofhoarding),andthecollectionrateofdiscarded

lithium-ion batteries, in order to calculate future potential tonnage from recycled

batteries.Theinfluenceandevaluationofthesetwofactorsneedtobediscussed.

Table 5.1 shows the collected tonnage of discarded lithium-ion batteries by four

scenarios:

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- ESC(ExpectedScenario):themostconservativescenariowithpremises,whichis

describedinchapter4andvisualizedbyFigure4.4.

- SLT3:ShorteningLifeTimeofallapplicationsforabout3years,withoutchanging

otherpremises.

- PLT3:ProlongingLifeTimeofallapplicationsforabout3years,withoutchanging

otherpremises.

- ICR: Increasing Collection Rate to 60% of accessible batteries – ready for

collectionbyFigure4.3

Table5.1Sensitivityanalysis:variationofcollectedlithium-ionbatterymass(tons)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020ESC 2.970 3.934 4.926 5.978 7.072 8.274SLT3 4.950 6.024 7.165 8.432 9.690 10.984PLT3 674 1.234 1.999 2.874 3.801 4.764ICR 9.516 12.233 15.128 17.922 20.715 23.520

AscanbeseeninTable5.1,shorteningthelifetimefor3yearsincrease30-60%ofthe

mass of expected collected batteries, but the tonnage stays at same magnitude. In

contrast to this, theprolongationof lifetime for3yearsagainstESCcuts the collected

mass of batteries by 40-70%.Anyway, thewaste stream tonnage stays again at same

scale.

ComparingthepreviouschangeswithscenarioICR,asignificantincreaseofevenmore

than15.000tonsliftsthenumberofcollectedlithium-ionbatteriestoadifferentscale.A

slight increase of about 30% collection rate has an enormous impact on materials

enteringtherecyclingpath.

The slight effect of lifetimedeviationencounters the common industrial position, that

lowreturnratesofrechargeablebatteriescanbeexplainedbytheparticularbehaviorof

consumers, hoarding batteries in household. In fact the outstanding influence of

collection rate emphasizes that a well-organized collection scheme, implementing an

adequate number of collection points close to consumers’ vicinity, combining with a

sound consumer education is the dominant factor to ensure a sustainable circular

economy.

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5.2 Plausibility of results and outlook

In the future, lithium-ion batteries will be the dominating system for rechargeable

applications of consumer products and electric vehicles. An extensive comparison of

available research data generates a conservative forecast for the lithium-ion battery

market by applications and electrode chemistrieswithinEU countries. The success of

salesforlithium-ionbatteriesinEUisforeseentostaydynamic,risingfrom40.000tons

in 2011 to nearly 70.000 tons to 2020. A model, which determines the EOL and

collectiondatasetoflithium-ionbatteries,isbuiltbytakingintoconsiderationsofboth

technical and practical factors. This expected collected waste stream of consumed

batteriesindicatesalso,buttime-displaced,adynamicgrowthfrom100tonsin2010to

a tonnage of 8.200 in 2020. The potential recyclable content of cobalt keeps growing

with a declining accrual rate, expected to become mature at the beginning of next

decadeduetothefactthatLCO-Li-Ionchemistryismostlyreplacedbylowornon-cobalt

bearingbatteries.

However, thenumberof collected and recycledLi-Ionbatteries stays farbehindwhat

couldbereintegratedintoeconomy.Thisiscausedbytraceableseconduseorhoarding

effectsofconsumers,butfinallypredominantdependingonthesoundimplementation

ofconsumer-friendlynationalCROs.Their jointeffortsaredriving thesuccessofEOL-

productassessment,and thusanefficientcontrolof contained industrialandstrategic

metals. Countries which have started late with the implementation of Directive

66/2006/EUneedadisciplinedapproachtocatchupthetargetof45%in2016–which

is a challenging but feasible target and already considers the fact that a certainmass

stream isnot accessible for collection.These losses canbe explained e.g. by thirduse

outside EU, illegal export of waste, but mainly with the strong link between Li-Ion

batteriesandelectricorelectronicdevices.Therequirementofprospectiveproduction

design, which is strongly related to fashion, makes it more and more difficult to

disassemblethebatteriesfromconsumerapplications.Thisresultsinthematerialflow

ofbatteries to the technicalprocessingplants in the industryofWEEE, and showsup

consequentlyadissipative lossofbatterymaterials.Evenbatterypacksorcells,which

could be removed technically easily, are identified at minor – which leads to the

necessitytoinvestigatethissustainabilityleakageinWEEEmoreindetailandensuring

technic-organizationalimprovements.

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