Investigation of Online Students Withdraw Rates from Social Science Cour

Investigation of Online Students Withdraw Rates from Social Science Courses (Fall 2011-Spring 2016)

Bradley Coverdale

Research Associate

Learning Outcomes Assessment

2/8/17

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Research Questions:

1. What is the withdraw trend of students enrolled in online social science courses compared to face-to face?

a. In which term(s) are students most likely to withdraw?b. When during the semester do students withdraw from social science courses?c. From which social science course(s) are students most likely to withdraw?

2. What is the relationship between gender, age range, developmental status, enrollment status, cumulative GPA, courses completed, and withdraw rate?

Data Needed:

1. Course Level: a. Instruction Type (Online, Hybrid, Face-to-Face, Other Distance Learning)

b. Term Taken (between Fall 2011 and Spring 2016) 1

c. Total number of students enrolled2. Student Level

a. Student IDb. Course Sectionc. Genderd. Age Range (based on end of term data)e. Developmental Status (as of census date during enrolled term)f. Cumulative GPA at the end of enrolled termg. Courses Completed at the end of the enrolled termh. Withdraw Ratei. Week of Semester Withdrawn2

j. Course Grade

____________________________________________________________________________________1 Winter and Summer terms were removed from the analysis due to the short length and the inability to adequately determine in which week of the semester students withdrew, as courses vary in length depending on meeting times.

2 Withdrawn week assumes that course is offered for 15 weeks in the semester with a start date of the first Saturday of the semester and an end date of the last Friday in the semester.

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Social Science Course Withdraw Rates by Instruction Method between Fall 2011- Spring 2016 (fall and spring semesters only)

Comparing the results of Table 1 and Table 2 reveals that the withdraw rate of online students is almost double the withdraw rate of students who enroll in the course on campus (10.7% vs. 6.0%). There is also a higher rate of success (A-C) for students who enroll in the face-to-face course (77.5%) compared to students who take the course online (66.4%). While Table 3 does show that students who enrolled in the hybrid course appear to have a lower withdraw rate (7.7% vs. 10.7%) than the online students, as well as a higher rate success (69.0% vs. 66.4%), one needs to bear in mind that more students enrolled in the online course compared to the hybrid, which may distort the findings based on discrepancies in group size. Students who participated in other distance learning type courses (Table 4), such as television or correspondence courses, had similar rates of success as the online students (66.2% vs. 66.4%) but higher withdraw rates (11.3% vs. 10.7%). For the purpose of this report, all comparisons by instruction type going forward will compare only students in face-to-face and online courses. Students who participated in hybrid or other distance learning courses, however, will be included in overall totals.

Table 1: Face-to-Face

Course Grade Frequency

Percent

A-C 32,380 77.5%D 2,114 5.1%F 4,387 10.5%I or N/A 409 0.8%W 2,491 6.0%Total 41,781 99.9%Note: Percentage may not add to 100% due to rounding

Table 2: Online


Percent

A-C 4,073 66.4%D 286 4.7%F 970 15.8%I or N/A 143 2.3%W 659 10.7%Total 6,131 99.9%Note: Percentage may not add to 100% due to rounding

Table 3: Hybrid


Percent

A-C 732 69.0%D 37 3.5%F 141 13.3%I or N/A 69 6.5%W 82 7.7%Total 1,061 100.0%

Table 4: Other Distance Learning

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Percent

A-C 468 66.2%D 38 5.4%F 114 16.1%I or N/A 7 1.0%W 80 11.3%Total 707 100.0%

In which term(s) are students most likely to withdraw?

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Table 5 shows that most students either withdrew in Spring 2012 (11.5%) or Fall 2011 (11.4%). There also was a decline in the percentage of withdrawn students from social science courses, from 7.6% of all enrolled students in Spring 2012 to 5.1% of enrolled students in Spring 2016. This would suggest that despite lower enrollment in Spring 2016 (4,461 students) compared to Spring 2012 (5,059 students), more students are remaining enrolled. This pattern is also reflected with the face-to-face students in Table 6 (6.7% of all enrolled students in Spring 2012 compared to 4.2% in Spring 2016) as well as online (14.3% of all enrolled students in Spring 2012 compared to 9.0% in Spring 2016) in Table 7.

Table 5: Social Science Withdraw Frequencies and Rates by Enrolled Term (Overall)

Enrolled Term Frequency of Withdrawn Students

Percent of Total Withdrawn

Total Students Enrolled That Term

Percent of Students Who Withdrew During Enrolled Term

Fall 2011 376 11.4% 5,155 7.3%Spring 2012 382 11.5% 5,059 7.6%Fall 2012 340 10.3% 5,166 6.6%Spring 2013 363 11.0% 4,922 7.4%Fall 2013 331 10.0% 5,143 6.4%Spring 2014 304 9.2% 4,943 6.2%Fall 2014 361 10.9% 5,163 7.0%Spring 2015 336 10.1% 4,928 6.8%Fall 2015 292 8.8% 4,740 6.2%Spring 2016 227 6.9% 4,461 5.1%TOTAL 3,312 100.1% 49,680 6.7%Note: Percentage may not add to 100% due to rounding

Table 6: Social Science Withdraw Frequencies and Rates by Enrolled Term (Face-to-Face)





Fall 2011 315 12.6% 4,495 7.0%Spring 2012 286 11.5% 4,300 6.7%Fall 2012 268 10.8% 4,445 6.0%Spring 2013 276 11.1% 4,154 6.6%Fall 2013 250 10.0% 4,409 5.7%Spring 2014 223 9.0% 4,122 5.4%Fall 2014 278 11.2% 4,359 6.4%Spring 2015 231 9.3% 4,042 5.7%Fall 2015 213 8.6% 3,877 5.5%Spring 2016 151 6.1% 3,578 4.2%TOTAL 2,491 100.2% 41,781 6.0%Note: Percentage may not add to 100% due to rounding

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Table 7: Social Science Withdraw Frequencies and Rates by Enrolled Term (Online)





Fall 2011 28 4.2% 241 11.6%Spring 2012 40 6.1% 279 14.3%Fall 2012 64 9.7% 642 10.0%Spring 2013 77 11.7% 653 11.8%Fall 2013 72 10.9% 637 11.3%Spring 2014 76 11.5% 711 10.7%Fall 2014 69 10.5% 679 10.2%Spring 2015 91 13.8% 754 12.1%Fall 2015 73 11.1% 769 9.5%Spring 2016 69 10.5% 766 9.0%TOTAL 659 100.0% 6,131 10.7%

When during the semester do students withdraw from social science courses?

For this investigation, week of dismissal is based on the week of the student’s last enrolled date. The timeframe for calculating the week of withdrawal is determined by the semester start date, usually the 1 st Saturday in the semester. Week of withdrawal assumes that all social science courses are 15 week courses.

Within the above parameters, most students withdraw from their course during week 10 in the semester (22.6%, see Table 8). Since students only have until the 10th week of the semester to withdraw without penalty, it makes sense that most of the students leave the course at that time. These findings were also reflected when separating the results by instruction type (Tables 9 and 10).

Table 8: Week of Withdraw from Social Science Courses (Overall)

Week Withdrawn Number Withdrawn PercentWeek 10 748 22.6%Week 8 382 11.5%Week 11 370 11.2%Week 9 368 11.1%Week 7 358 10.8%Week 6 328 9.9%Week 5 312 9.4%Week 4 296 8.9%Other Weeks 151 4.6%Total 3,313 100.0%

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Table 9: Week of Withdraw from Social Science Courses (Face-to-Face)

Week Withdrawn Number Withdrawn PercentWeek 10 577 23.2%Week 11 302 12.1%Week 7 270 10.8%Week 9 266 10.7%Week 6 264 10.6%Week 8 263 10.6%Week 5 237 9.5%Week 4 211 8.5%Other Weeks 101 4.0%Total 2,491 100.0%

Table 10: Week of Withdraw from Social Science Courses (Online)

Week Withdrawn Number Withdrawn PercentWeek 10 135 20.5%Week 8 100 15.2%Week 9 93 14.1%Week 7 72 10.9%Week 4 62 9.4%Week 5 58 8.8%Week 6 51 7.7%Week 11 50 7.6%Other Weeks 38 5.8%Total 659 100.0%

From which social science course(s) are students most likely to withdraw?

The results in Table 6 indicate that nearly 70% of all students who withdrew from a social science course were enrolled in one or more of the below courses, with PSYC-101 having the largest percentage of withdrawn students (15.1%). However, two notes should be made 1) PSYC-101 is the second highest enrolled social science course (6,654 students), and 2) the percent of students who withdrew from a course ranged between approximately 5-10% of all enrolled students regardless of course.

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Table 11: Top 10 Social Science courses that students withdrew from between Fall 2011 and Spring 2016 (N=3,312)

Course Name Frequency of Withdrawn Students

Percent of Total Withdrawn(*)

Total Students Enrolled in Course

Percent of Students Who Withdrew From Course

PSYC-101 499 15.1% 6,654 7.5%SOCI-101 371 11.2% 6,690 5.5%HIST-111 279 8.4% 3,207 8.7%HIST-112 243 7.3% 3,014 8.1%ECON-101 242 7.3% 2,769 8.7%HMDV-200 143 4.3% 1,479 9.7%HIST-121 126 3.8% 1,450 8.7%CRIM-101 122 3.7% 1,606 7.6%HIST-123 121 3.7% 1,690 7.2%ECON-102 116 3.5% 1,828 6.3%

Do withdraw rates differ by student characteristics?

GENDER

Examining withdraw rates by gender reveals that although more females than males withdrew from social science courses between Fall 2011 and Spring 2016 (55.9% vs. 44.1%), there is little difference in the overall percentage made up of withdrawn students for each gender (6.6% vs. 6.8%). Filtering the results by instruction type shows that less males withdrew than females in both face-to-face (47.8% vs. 52.2%) as well as online social science courses (25.6% vs 74.4%). However, when comparing the percentage of withdrawn students to all enrolled students by gender, male students had a larger percentage of withdrawn students than females for both face-to-face instruction (6.3% vs. 5.7%) as well as online (11.4% vs. 10.5%).

Table 12: Withdraw rates by Gender (Overall)

Gender Frequency of Withdrawn Students


Total Students Enrolled in Course (*)

Percent of Students Who Withdrew From Course by Gender

Female 1,852 55.9% 28,181 6.6%Male 1,460 44.1% 21,488 6.8%Total 3,312 100.0% 49,669 6.7%

(*) 11 students did not list a gender

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Table 13: Withdraw rates by Gender (Face-To-Face)



Total Students Enrolled in Course (*)


Female 1,300 52.2% 22,791 5.7%Male 1,191 47.8% 18,979 6.3%Total 2,491 100.0% 41,770 6.0%

(*) 11 students did not list a gender.

Table 14: Withdraw rates by Gender (Online)



Total Students Enrolled in Course


Female 453 74.4% 4,329 10.5%Male 206 25.6% 1,802 11.4%Total 659 100.0% 6,131 10.7%

AGE

Examining withdraw rates by age indicates that over 75% of students who withdrew from social science courses were either 20-24 (50.5%) or 25-29 (26.9%). These two age groups also comprised most of the students enrolled. Comparing withdrawn students to all enrolled students in the age bracket revealed that 25-29 year olds have the largest representage of students who withdrew (8.3%). There were similar results for 25-29 year old students found when separating students by instruction type for both face-to-face (7.4%) and online (12.3%).

Table 15: Withdraw rates by Age (Overall)

Age Frequency of Withdrawn Students


Total Students Enrolled by Age Band (*)

Percent of Students Who Withdrew From Course by Age

<16-19 67 2.0% 1,726 3.9%20-24 1,674 50.5% 28,198 5.9%25-29 891 26.9% 10,723 8.3%30-34 274 8.3% 3,441 8.0%35-39 153 4.6% 1,945 7.9%40-44 98 3.0% 1,269 7.7%45-49 56 1.7% 959 5.8%50-59 69 2.1% 1027 6.7%60 > 30 0.9% 389 7.7%Total 3, 312 100.0% 49,677 6.7%

(*) 3 students did not report age

Table 16: Withdraw rates by Age (Face-to-Face)

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Total Students Enrolled by Age Band


<16-19 59 2.4% 1,569 3.8%20-24 1,404 56.4% 25,436 5.5%25-29 628 25.2% 8,536 7.4%30-34 157 6.3% 2,409 6.5%35-39 79 3.2% 1,264 6.3%40-44 58 2.3% 850 6.8%45-49 37 1.5% 692 5.3%50-59 47 1.9% 730 6.4%60 > 22 0.8% 294 7.5%Total 2,491 100.0% 41,780 6.0%

(*) 1 student did not report age

Table 17: Withdraw rates by Age (Online)



Total Students Enrolled by Age Band (*)


<16-19 6 0.9% 116 5.2%20-24 221 33.5% 2,145 10.3%25-29 202 30.7% 1,640 12.3%30-34 98 14.9% 813 12.1%35-39 59 9.0% 547 10.8%40-44 30 4.6% 342 8.8%45-49 19 2.9% 218 8.7%50-59 17 2.5% 230 7.4%60 > 7 1.0% 79 8.9%Total 659 100.0% 6,130 10.7%

(*) 1 student did not report age

RACE/ETHNICITY

Examining withdraw rates by race and ethnicity shows that while White students were the largest withdrawn population, and thus, the greatest percentage of total withdrawn (40.8%), both Black/African American 7.8%) and Other students (7.9%) had similar representations of withdrawn students compared to the population as White students (8.0%). Filtering by instruction type further reveals that Black/African American students have a higher representation of withdrawn students than White students in both face-to-face (6.6% vs. 5.4%) as well as online courses (13.3% vs. 9.2%). While these findings may appear misleading, the discrepancy can be explained by the fact that more White students were enrolled than any other race or ethnicity, and as a result, more White students had an opportunity to withdraw. Comparing percentage of student withdrawal to enrolled population for each race or ethnicity is a better representation.

Table 18: Withdraw rates by Race/Ethnicity (Overall)

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Race/Ethnicity Frequency of Withdrawn Students


Enrolled by Race/Ethnicity

Percent of Students Who Withdrew From Course by Race/Ethnicity

Asian 390 11.8% 6,038 6.5%Black/African American 987 29.8% 12,679 7.8%Hispanic 318 9.6% 4,874 6.5%White 1,353 40.8% 22,764 8.0%Other (*) 264 8.0% 3,325 7.9%Total 3,312 100.0% 49,680 6.7%

(*) American Indian, Native Hawaiian, No Response, Two or More Races

Table 19: Withdraw rates by Race/Ethnicity (Face-to-Face)





Asian 316 12.7% 5,044 6.3%Black/African American 690 27.7% 10,408 6.6%Hispanic 259 10.4% 4,269 6.1%White 1,041 41.8% 19,234 5.4%Other (*) 185 7.4% 2,766 6.7%Total 2,491 100.0% 41,721 6.0%


Table 20: Withdraw rates by Race/Ethnicity (Online)





Asian 55 8.3% 700 7.9%Black/African American 239 36.3% 1,794 13.3%Hispanic 49 7.4% 454 10.8%White 253 38.4% 2,743 9.2%Other (*) 63 9.6% 440 14.3%Total 659 100.0% 6,131 10.7%


ENROLLMENT STATUS

Evaluating withdraw rates by enrollment status (Table 21) indicates that while returning students comprised of the largest group of withdrawn students (79.5%), re-admit students, had the highest percentage of withdrawn students compared to the enrolled population for that group (8.4%). Re-admit students are defined as those who leave HCC for at least two years before re-enrolling. Table 22 reveals that re-admit students also had the largest contribution of withdrawn students compared to the group

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population for students enrolled in face-to-face courses (8.8%). Table 23 shows that online students who transfer (10.2%) or enrolled in a previous semester (11.1%) had the highest contribution of withdrawn students compared to the enrolled population.

Table 21: Withdraw rates by Enrollment Status (Overall)

Enrollment Status Frequency of Withdrawn Students


Enrolled by Enrollment Status

Percent of Students Who Withdrew From Course by Enrollment Status

First-Time College 301 9.1% 5,298 5.7%Transfer 274 8.3% 3,959 6.9%Re-Admit(*) 103 3.1% 1,223 8.4%Returning 2,634 79.5% 39,200 6.7%Total 3,312 100.0% 49,680 6.7%

(*) Students who left HCC for at least 2 years before enrolling again

Table 22: Withdraw rates by Enrollment Status (Face-to-Face)





First-Time College 276 11.1% 4,945 5.6%Transfer 185 7.4% 3,072 6.0%Re-Admit(*) 75 3.0% 856 8.8%Returning 1,955 78.5% 32,908 5.9%Total 2,491 100.0% 41,781 6.0%


Table 23: Withdraw rates by Enrollment Status (Online)





First-Time College 19 2.9% 255 7.5%Transfer 70 10.6% 685 10.2%Re-Admit (*) 24 3.6% 291 8.2%Returning 546 82.9% 4,900 11.1%Total 659 100.0% 6,131 10.7%


CUMULATIVE GPA

Results in Table 24 point out that there is little difference in cumulative GPA for students who withdraw from social science courses, regardless of instruction type. Because the average GPA for students who

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withdraw is approximately 2.0, it does not appear that Cumulative GPA is a major factor in determining if a student will withdraw.

Table 24: Average Cumulative GPA by Instructive Type of Students Who Withdrew from Social Science Courses

Instruction Type Average Cumulative GPAOverall 1.98Face-to-Face 1.94Online 2.06

CREDITS COMPLETED

Results in Table 25 show that there is little difference in average credits earned for students who withdrew from social science courses, regardless of instruction type. Because students from each instruction type on average earn at least 35 credits when they withdraw from a social science course, we can assume that the average student had completed at least one semester towards his or her educational goal before deciding to withdraw from a social science course.

Table 25: Average Credits Completed by Instructive Type of Students Who Withdrew from Social Science Courses

Instruction Type Average Credits EarnedOverall 36.6Face-to-Face 35.8Online 39.0

DEVELOPMENTAL STATUS AT ADMISSION

Investigating social science course withdraw rates by developmental status at admission (Table 26) indicates that most of the students who withdrew from social science courses either did not have to take any developmental courses (35.3%) or needed at least one math course (32.8%). Comparing withdrawn students to all enrolled students with each developmental status revealed that both students who need English-Writing as well as Math, English-Reading and Writing have the largest percentage of students who withdrew (7.5%). These findings were similar with face-to-face (7.2%). Table 28 shows that online students who need English-Writing had the highest percentage of withdrawn students (13.0%). However, many of the online developmental subgroups are small and the findings need to be examined more closely.

Table 26: Withdraw Rates by Developmental Status at Admission (Overall)

Developmental Status Frequency of


Enrolled by Developmental

Percent of Students Who

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Withdrawn Students

Status Withdrew From Course by Developmental Status

College Level 1,170 35.3% 19,097 6.1%Math Only 1,086 32.8% 15,744 6.9%English-Reading 48 1.4% 864 5.6%English-Writing 48 1.4% 644 7.5%Math, English-Reading 262 7.9% 3,874 6.8%Math, English-Writing 159 4.8% 2,311 6.9%Math, English-Reading &Writing 539 16.3% 7,146 7.5%Total 3,312 99.9% 49,680 6.7%Note: Percentage may not add to 100% due to rounding

Table 27: Withdraw Rates by Developmental Status at Admission (Face-to-Face)

Developmental Status Frequency of Withdrawn Students


Enrolled by Developmental Status

Percent of Students Who Withdrew From Course by Developmental Status

College Level 824 33.1% 15,430 5.3%Math Only 797 32.0% 13,221 6.0%English-Reading 37 1.5% 759 4.9%English-Writing 40 1.6% 560 7.1%Math, English-Reading 202 8.1% 3,376 6.0%Math, English-Writing 133 5.3% 2,047 6.5%Math, English-Reading &Writing 458 18.4% 6,388 7.2%Total 2,491 100.0% 41,781 6.0%

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Table 28: Withdraw Rates by Developmental Status at Admission (Online)

Developmental Status Frequency of Withdrawn Students


Enrolled by Developmental Status

Percent of Students Who Withdrew From Course by Developmental Status

College Level 282 42.8% 2,841 9.9%Math Only 230 34.9% 2,010 11.4%English-Reading 10 1.5% 85 11.8%English-Writing 7 1.1% 54 13.0%Math, English-Reading 46 7.0% 373 12.3%Math, English-Writing 21 3.2% 200 10.5%Math, English-Reading &Writing 63 9.6% 568 11.1%Total 659 100.1% 6,131 10.7%Note: Percentage may not add to 100% due to rounding

Conclusion/Summary:

Overall, the findings of this analysis indicate the following:

1. The withdraw rate of online students was almost double of those who enrolled in courses on campus instead.

2. Most of the students withdrew from social science courses in either Fall 2011 or Spring 2012.3. Despite lower enrollment, fewer students withdraw from social science courses today than in

2011-2012.4. Most of the students withdrew during the 10th week of the semester, right before the deadline to

withdraw without penalty.5. PSYC-101, the most enrolled social science course between Fall 2011 and Spring 2016, has the

largest number of students who withdrew.

Next Steps:

Given the above data and findings, here are the proposed next steps that will help understand what factors impact withdraw rates for students in social science courses:

1. Regression Model: Analysis of withdraw rates by personal characteristics suggests differences by age, race and ethnicity, enrollment status, and developmental status at admission. a regression model can help to determine which would be significant for predicting which students will withdraw

2. Testing the Model: Use the Fall 2016 social science data to test the model for significant factors and determine how successful it is. Using data from other divisions may also test the model for generalizing results.

3. Repeat analysis looking at students who fail the course. Many more students fail the course instead of withdraw, and it would be interesting to see if a similar model is applicable to understand the students’ behaviors.

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Documents

Investigation of Online Students Withdraw Rates from Social Science Cour