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Investment Market Overview EN
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Investment Market Overview
Research & Forecast Report
Bulgaria | Investment Real Estate MarketH1 2015
2 Investment Market Overview | H1 2015 | Colliers International
H1 201520142013201220112010200920082007
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2007
Total Sales Transactions Volume Bulgarian Buyers
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015
}
} }46%
USA & UK
Greece & UKRomania, Turkey,Kazahstan, China, etc.
85%
38%
Income Generating Transactions Speculative Transactions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015
O�ces Retail Industrial
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015
H1 201520142013201220112010200920082007
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2007
Total Sales Transactions Volume Bulgarian Buyers
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015
}
} }46%
USA & UK
Greece & UKRomania, Turkey,Kazahstan, China, etc.
85%
38%
Income Generating Transactions Speculative Transactions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015
O�ces Retail Industrial
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015
H1 201520142013201220112010200920082007
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2007
Total Sales Transactions Volume Bulgarian Buyers
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015
}
} }46%
USA & UK
Greece & UKRomania, Turkey,Kazahstan, China, etc.
85%
38%
Income Generating Transactions Speculative Transactions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015
O�ces Retail Industrial
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015
Total Sales Transactions Volume (mln EUR)
Bulgarian Companies` Share
Buyers` Profile (mln EUR)
• The total value of closed transactions on the investment market in Bulgaria in the first half of 2015 was slightly above 90 mln EUR. It is expected by the end of the year the total sales transactions volume to be similar or higher than in 2014, depending on the development of the Greek debt crisis.
• About 60% of the buyers in 2014 were Bulgarian companies. They continued to dominate during the period with a diminishing share from the total volumes.
• In the recent years the pool of investors and origin of capital represented in Bulgaria became more diversified. In addition to the typical US and Western European investors, new players from Romania, Turkey, Greece, Kazahstan, China and other countries entered the market.
3 Investment Market Overview | H1 2015 | Colliers International
H1 201520142013201220112010200920082007
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2007
Total Sales Transactions Volume Bulgarian Buyers
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015
}
} }
46%
USA & UK
Greece & UKRomania, Turkey,Kazahstan, China, etc.
85%
38%
Income Generating Transactions Speculative Transactions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015
O�ces Retail Industrial
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015
H1 201520142013201220112010200920082007
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2007
Total Sales Transactions Volume Bulgarian Buyers
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015
}
} }
46%
USA & UK
Greece & UKRomania, Turkey,Kazahstan, China, etc.
85%
38%
Income Generating Transactions Speculative Transactions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015
O�ces Retail Industrial
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2015
Transactions Type (mln EUR)
Prime Yields
• The speculative transactions were prevailing on the investment market in the last two years. The explanation being that the Bulgarian market remains in the development stage with a limited number of class A office properties.
• The low volatility of the yields in 2011 - 2015 is due to capital markets lagging behind, as well as the relatively small share of pure income-generating properties from the total sales transactions volume. The development opportunities and the strong occupational market are also attracting significant amount of capital.
Forecast• 2015 total sales transactions volume is anticipated to reach at least the 2014 volume, depending on the availability of product for sale
• Foreign investors are expected to steadily increase their share in the total sales transactions volume
• Rental upside, discounts on existing debt and lower interest rates would continue to drive investor returns
• Occupational markets in Western Europe and Tier 1 CEE lag behind Capital Markets; Strong occupational markets in Bulgaria will continue to attract more capital
Accelerating success.
Copyright © 2015 Colliers International.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.
Georgi KirovDirector Investment Services+359 2 976 9 [email protected]
Adriana TonchevaSenior Market Researcher+359 2 976 9 [email protected]
Colliers International | SofiaEuropean Trade Center115K Tsarigradsko Shose Blvd.Build. B, 7th floor1784 Sofia | Bulgaria
TEL +359 2 976 9 976
502 offices in 67 countries on 6 continentsUnited States: 140 Canada: 31 Latin America: 24 Asia: 199 EMEA: 108
$1.7billion in annual revenue
158million square meters under management
16,300professionals and staff
About Colliers International
Colliers International is a global leader in commercial real estate services, with over 16,300 professionals operating out of more than 502 offices in 67 countries. The company operates in Bulgaria since 1991 and delivers a full range of services to real estate users, owners and investors worldwide. Presently Colliers represents some of the most innovative and professionally planned projects in all market segments, including office, retail, logistics, industrial and residential. As of June 2015, Colliers is an independently owned company. The common shares of Colliers International Group Inc. trade on the NASDAQ under the symbol “CIGI” and on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol “CIG”.
As part of the CEE Quality Awards 2015 Colliers won for the fourth time in a row the Industrial agent of the year award. The latest annual survey by the Lipsey Company ranked Colliers International as the third-most recognized commercial real estate firm in the world.
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