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Investment Update - Outlook for 2009 SWIP Multi-Manager March 2009. Outlook – Battling the Equity Bear. Corporate profits weak Economic outlook poor Limited liquidity Valuations cheap Markets looking for a base 1932 again?. 2009 like 1932?. Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones Industrial Index. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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For professional use only - Not to be relied upon by retail clients
Investment Update - Outlook for 2009SWIP Multi-Manager
March 2009
2
Outlook – Battling the Equity Bear
Corporate profits weak
Economic outlook poor
Limited liquidity
Valuations cheap
Markets looking for a base
1932 again?
3
2009 like 1932?
Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones Industrial Index.
4
Simon Wood Mark Harries
Lyndon Gill
Andrew Perham
Natalie Burnard
Highly rated team
.Source: Citywire relating to the City Wire rating for the SWIP Multimanager Fund Managers as at 31 December 2009.
5
Outstanding performance
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
1yr
3yr
5yr
Sector SWIP Multi Manager Diversity Fund
Consistently outperforming
4 of 34 managers
7 of 52 managers
31 of 83 managers
Source: Citywire 31 January 2004 to 31 January 2009.
6
SWIP Multi-Manager Diversity Fund
Multi-Asset strategy
Strategic asset allocation method
Tactical overlay
Multi-Manager approach
Wealth preservation and real returns focus
Targeting real returns
7
Multi-asset strategy
Source: Datastream and Morningstar (total return in Sterling) as at 06 January 2009. You cannot predict the future
Rank/% Annual return
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1 Commodities61.6%
Property7.1%
Commodities 19.4%
Emg Mkts40.5%
HY Bonds21.2%
Emg Mkts50.5%
Europe ex UK20.1%
Emg Mkts37.4%
Gilts
12.8%
2 Property10.5%
Corp Bonds6.6%
Property10.5%
HY Bonds39.5%
Property18.9%
Japan41.0%
Property18.1%
Pacific ex Japan
34.2%
Cash
5.7%
3 Corp Bonds10.2%
Cash5.1%
Corp Bonds9.8%
Pacific ex Japan32.7%
Emg Mkts17.4%
Commodities40.4%
UK
16.8%Commodities
30.4%Japan
1.2%
4 Gilts8.8%
Gilts3.1%
Gilt 9.3%
Europe ex UK29.7%
Pacific ex Japan
14.9%Pacific ex Japan
34.3%Emg Mkts
16.3%Europe ex UK
15.7%Corp Bonds
-3.6%
5 Cash6.0%
Hedge2.8%
Cash3.9%
Japan23.9%
Europe ex UK13.8%
World ex UK24.9%
Pacific ex Japan16.1%
Hedge10.3%
US
-13.2%
6 Hedge4.1%
Pacific ex Japan1.6%
Hedge1.0%
UK
20.9%UK
12.8%Europe ex UK
24.1%HY Bonds
11.8%World ex UK
9.7%World ex UK
-17.1%
7 Europe ex UK1.7%
Emg Mkts
0.2%HY Bonds
-11.%World ex UK
20.7%Commodities
9.4%UK
22.0%Hedge10.3%
Cash6.2%
Hedge
-23.0%
8 HY Bonds-1.9%
HY Bonds-1.6%
Pacific ex Japan-14.6%
US15.3%
Japan8.6%
Property18.8%
World ex UK5.7%
UK5.3%
Europe ex UK
-24.0%
9 US -2.2%
US-9.8%
Emg Mkts-15.0%
Hedge11.6%
World ex UK7.8%
US16.9%
Cash4.8%
Gilts5.3%
HY Bonds
-25.0%
10 World ex UK-4.1%
UK-13.3%
Japan-18.8%
Property11.2%
Corp Bonds6.9%
Corp Bonds8.7%
US1.2%
US3.4%
Commodities
-25.9%
11 UK-5.9%
World ex UK-14.0%
UK-22.7%
Commodities8.6%
Hedge6.8%
HY Bonds5.3%
Corp Bonds0.8%
Corp Bonds1.9%
Property-27.1%
12 Emg Mkts -25.1%
Europe ex UK20.1%
Europe ex UK-27.0%
Corp Bonds5.9%
Gilts6.6%
Gilts7.9%
Gilts0.7%
HY Bonds-0.9%
UK
-29.9%
13 Pacific ex Japan-25.3%
Commodities-30.1%
World ex UK-27.4%
Cash3.6%
Cash 4.5%
Hedge7.4%
Japan-10.5%
Property-5.5%
Pacific ex Japan
-33.5%
14 Japan-29.6%
Japan-31.6%
US-29.9%
Gilts2.1%
US3.1%
Cash4.7%
Commodities-25.5%
Japan
-6.8%Emg Mkts
-35.2%
8
- UK- International- Infrastructure
Equities 34% Fixed Interest 33% Alternatives 33%
- Global Bonds- Corporate Bonds- Government Bonds- Index-Linked Bonds- Strategic Bonds- High Yield Bonds- Absolute Return Bonds
- Hedge- Commercial Property- Commodities
Source: SWIP as at 31 December 2008.
Strategic asset allocation
Tried and trusted investment process
9
Diversity current position
Equity 28.50%UK Equity 16.82%Blackrock AM Absolute AlphaGAM UK DiversifiedInvesco Perpetual IncomePolar Capital UK AbsoluteInternational Equity 9.45%Odey Opus Gartmore European Absolute ReturnInfrastructure 2.23%First State Global InfrastructureAlternatives 24.03%Hedge 21.03%Alternative Investment StrategiesBH Global LtdBH Macro LtdDexion AbsoluteDexion TradingFRM Diversified Alpha Goldman Sachs Dynamic OpportunitiesProperty 0.25%New Star International PropertyCommodities 2.75%Schroder Alternative Solutions Commodities
Fixed Income 25.11%Gilts 4.37%%Legal & General All Stocks Index TrustAbsolute Return Bond 6.40%Julius Baer Absolute Return BondIndex-Linked 1.34%Legal & General Index-Linked Gilt Index TrustStrategic Bond 9.02%M&G Optimal Income Global Bonds 3.64%PIMCO Global BondEmerging Market Debt 0.34%Thames River High Income
Cash & others 22.36%
Source: SWIP as at 30 January 2009.
10
Multi-Manager approach
Source: SWIP as at 31 December 2008.
21 Funds
300 Analysts
19 Fund Management Houses
M&GM&G
Harris AlternativesHarris Alternatives
POLAR CAPITAL PERMAL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENTSERVICES LIMITED
Julius Baer
11
-18.95
-28.6
-10.5
-1.47
1.50.3
12.211.6
1.98
-2.7 -1.1 -1.3
27.5
9.8
17.721.6
17.07
-12.3 -13.4-13.0
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
21/10/05 -06/04/06
13/06/06 -01/06/07
21/01/08 -26/02/08
17/03/08 -19/05/08
21/11/08-31/12/08
15/06/07 -16/08/07
31/12/07 -21/01/08
27/02/08 -17/03/08
19/05/08 -16/07/08
19/09/08 -27/10/08
Wealth preservation
Sources: Citywire, DataStream as at 31 December 2008, (please note that prior to December 2007 the fund referred to is the Cazenove MM Diversity Fund).
SWIP Multi manager Diversity Fund FTSE All Share Index
12
Real returns focus
Source: Citywire and Morningstar, The figures show the fund performance achieved by the management team/manager between: 31/01/2006 to 31/01/2009 whilst managing the Cazenove MM Diversity Fund until December 2007 and the SWIP Multi Manager Diversity fund thereafter.
13.30%
-0.10%
-10.10%
-21.20%-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
FTSE All Stocks Index Average Manager FTSE All Share SWIP multi managercapabilities
13
Equities
Equity yields> Bond yieldsValuations Cheap
Bonds
US Corporate Bond Spreads widest since 1932
Interest rates lower for longer?
Index-linked Bonds: no inflation?
Hedge
Hedge Funds at 31% discounts to NAVDFM & Continuation Votes
Cash
Secure but low yield
Commercial Property
Returns to Fall FurtherRising DefaultsTenant demand subduedFalling Rents
Commodities
Secular Bull Case- Future inflation, weak $,
rise of Asia, supply side
Opportunities in 2009
14
Diversity Fund
Highly rated team
Outstanding fund managers
Tried and tested investment process
Wealth preservation and real returns focus
Summary
Potential investors
Investors wary of stock market volatility
Ideal for clients particularly interested in capital preservation
Clients that want steady returns over an investment cycle
Diversity is a ‘core holding’
15
Third party links
Freedom of choice
Plus most major platforms and offshore providers
16
This is for professional financial advisers only and should not be distributed to or relied on by retail clients.
Until November 2007, the Cazenove Fund was managed by the individuals now forming SWIP's Multi Manager team. Performance figures shown for that fund demonstrate the capabilities of the new SWIP Multi Manager team, although there is no guarantee similar performance will be replicated at SWIP.The value of your investment is not guaranteed and can go down as well as up depending on investment performance. You may not get back the amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Funds may have holdings which are denominated in different currencies and may be affected by movements in exchange rates. Consequently, the value of your investment may rise or fall in line with exchange rates. Tax rules relating to OEICs may change.
Multi-manager funds can invest in a wide range of asset classes, including collective investment schemes, which they themselves invest in a range of other assets. These underlying assets are likely to vary from time to time but each category of asset (which may include, but shall not be limited to, hedge funds or property) has individual risks associated with them. Multi-manager funds and the Manager may not have control over the activities of any collective investment scheme or company invested in by Multi-manager funds. Managers of collective investment schemes and companies in which the Multi manager funds may invest may take undesirable tax positions, employ excessive leverage, or otherwise manage the collective investment schemes in a manner not anticipated by the Manager.
Further details of the risks relating to the SWIP Multi-Manager Funds can be found in the Key Features Document which must be read before taking any investment decision. This is available at our website www.swip.com.SWIP Multi-Manager Funds Limited, Company No. 5582499. Registered Office in the United Kingdom at 10 Fleet Place, London, EC4M 7RH. Tel 020 7203 3000. SWIP Multi-Manager Funds Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is entered on their register under number 455821 (www.fsa.gov.uk/register).
Scottish Widows Investment Partnership Limited, Company No. 794936. Registered Office in the United Kingdom at 10 Fleet Place, London, EC4M 7RH. Tel: 0131655 8500. Scottish Widows Investment Partnership Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is entered on their register under number 193707 (www.fsa.gov.uk/register).
Regulatory information and risk warnings