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Investor Presentation Q1 Fiscal 2020 Update January 30, 2020

Investor Presentation · 2020. 1. 30. · Leidy South (Mid-Atlantic) Firm Sales tied to Firm Transportation (FT) Capacity (Mid-Atlantic/Southeast & Canada-Dawn) Reduced Activity to

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  • Investor Presentation

    Q1 Fiscal 2020 UpdateJanuary 30, 2020

  • 2

    National Fuel is committed to the safe and environmentally conscious development, transportation, storage, and

    distribution of natural gas and oil resources.

    For additional information, please visit our corporate responsibility website at https://responsibility.natfuel.com

    https://responsibility.natfuel.com/

  • 3

    Developing our large, high quality acreage position in Marcellus & Utica shales(1)

    NFG: A Diversified, Integrated Natural Gas Company

    Providing safe, reliable and affordable service to customers in WNY and NW Pa.

    UpstreamExploration &

    Production

    MidstreamGathering

    Pipeline & Storage

    38% of NFG EBITDA(1)

    DownstreamUtility

    % of NFG 20EBITDA(1)

    Expanding and modernizing pipeline infrastructure to provide outlets for Appalachian natural gas production

    785,000Net acres in Appalachia

    ~590 MMcf/dayNet Appalachian natural gas production

    $1.7 BillionInvestments

    since 2010

    3.9 MMDthDaily interstate pipeline capacity under contract

    743,400Utility

    customers

    $324 MillionInvestments in safety since 2015

    California: oil production generates significant cash flow

    (1) This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Please review the safe harbor for forward looking statements on slide 56 of this presentation.(2) Twelve months ending December 31, 2019. A reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Net Income as presented on the Consolidated Statement of Income and Earnings Reinvested in the Business is included at the end of this presentation.

    45% of NFG EBITDA(2)

    34% of NFG EBITDA(2)

    21% of NFG EBITDA(2)

    :

  • 4

    Why National Fuel?

    Diversified Assets Provide Stability and Long-Term Growth Opportunities

  • 5

    Midstream

    Integrated Model Enhances Shareholder Value . . .

    Ability to adjust to changing commodity price environments

    More efficient capital investment Higher returns on investment Operational scale Lower cost of capital Lower operating costs More competitive pipeline

    infrastructure projects Strong balance sheet Growing, stable dividend

    Geographic and Operational Integration Drives Synergies:

    Benefits of National Fuel’s Integrated Structure:

    Financial Efficiencies: Investment grade credit rating Shared borrowing capacity Consolidated income tax return

    DownstreamUtility

    MidstreamGathering

    Pipeline & Storage

    UpstreamExploration &

    Production

    Co-Development of Marcellus and Utica Just-in-time gathering facilities Pipeline expansion opportunities

    Upstream

    Rate-regulated entities share common resources, reducing operating expense

    Utility business is a large Pipeline & Storage customer

    DownstreamMidstream

    1

  • 6

    Integrated Upstream and Midstream development of 785,000 acre Marcellus and Utica shale position

    Drilling program focused on return trips to existing pads and use of existing infrastructure

    NFG Gathering transports 100% of natural gas production, driving consolidated returns

    NFG pipeline expansions under development create new firm takeaway capacity for E&P business

    Further expansion of interstate pipeline systems to satisfy growing natural gas supply and demand

    Supply push – Appalachian producers

    Demand pull – regional demand-driven projects and utilities

    Ongoing investment in safety and modernization of pipeline transportation and distribution systems

    $500+ million in new investments expected over the next 5 years

    . . . and Drives Organic Growth Opportunities

    Near Term Strategy Leverages Integration Across the Value Chain

    UtilityGathering Pipeline & Storage Exploration &

    Production

  • 7

    Impressive Dividend History

    Annual Rate at Fiscal Year End

    $3.1 BillionDividend payments since 1970

    $1.74per share

    49 YearsConsecutive Dividend Increases

    $0.19per share

    117 YearsConsecutive Payments

    4.0%yield(1)

    (1) As of January 28, 2020.

    2

  • 8

    Responsible Capital Allocation and Asset Development

    Maintaining Focus on Balance Sheet, With Reductions in E&P Activity in Response to

    Low Natural Gas Price Environment . . .

    E&P3

    $492

    $415-$455$375-$410

    $0

    $100

    $200

    $300

    $400

    $500

    2019 Actual 2020 Guidance(August)

    2020 Guidance(Current)

    E&P

    Cap

    ital E

    xpen

    ditu

    res

    ($ M

    M)

    . . . While Generating Steady Production, and Optimizing Significant Firm Sales Portfolio

    and Firm Transportation Capacity

    -

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    1,000

    Gro

    ss F

    irm C

    ontr

    act V

    olum

    es (M

    Dth

    /day

    )

    In-Basin Firm Sales Contracts

    Leidy South (Mid-Atlantic)

    Firm Sales tied to Firm Transportation (FT) Capacity (Mid-Atlantic/Southeast & Canada-Dawn)

    Reduced Activity to 2 rigs

    Company intends to further reduce activity in summer 2020, driving lower capital

    expenditures in fiscal 2020 and beyond

    Further Activity

    Reduction

    Full Year at 3 rigs

    Gross Production Trend (Reduced Activity Level)

  • 9

    Utilization of Existing Infrastructure for Ongoing Utica Development Amplifies Consolidated Returns

    L Leveraging Existing Infrastructure to Enhance Returns

    (1) Approximate WDA Marcellus gathering facility costs for 192 wells drilled and completed as of September 30, 2018. (2) Estimated WDA Utica gathering facility costs for remaining return trip locations in the Clermont Rich Valley area of redevelopment. (3) Internal Rate of Return for Seneca WDA includes estimated well costs under current cost structure, and anticipated LOE and Gathering costs. Internal Rate of Return for Seneca WDA and Gathering includes expected gathering capital expenditures for

    remaining return trip locations, well costs under current cost structure, and non-gathering LOE.

    Gathering CapEx/Well

    ($ thousands)Marcellus (pre-2019) $1,489

    (1)

    Utica Return Trips (current) ~$430

    (2)

    Gathering Pipelines

    Compression

    Water Handling Facilities

    Roadways and Pads

    Gathering Costs in Western Development Area (CRV) ~10% IRR Uplift

    Expected(3)

    Requires modest investment in new Gathering facilities to support production growth

    Utica development on Marcellus pads allows use of existing:

    Resulting in significant consolidated return uplift for E&P and Gathering

    4

  • 10

    $1 Billion+ Backlog in Pipeline & Storage Projects

    Northern Access Delivery: Canada & NY

    490,000 Dth/d

    Line N to MonacaDelivery: Shell ethane cracker

    facility (Beaver Co., Pa)133,000 Dth/d

    FM100Delivery: Transco (Leidy)

    330,000 Dth/d

    Empire NorthDelivery: Canada & NY

    205,000 Dth/d

    ~$150 Million in Potential Annual Expansion Revenues:

    Line N to Monaca: $5 MM(placed into service 11/1/19)

    Empire North: $25 MM

    FM100: $35 MM

    Northern Access: $84 MM

    $1.0 – $1.1 Billion in Pipeline Projects under Development:

    Expansion Projects:~$850 million

    Supply Corp. Modernization: $150 - $250 million

    5

  • 11

    Financial Highlights

    First Quarter Fiscal 2020

  • 12

    572 601 45.854.8

    Net

    Oil

    and

    Gas

    Pr

    oduc

    tion

    First Quarter Fiscal 2020 Results and Drivers

    (1) Adjusted Operating results of $1.12 for Q1 FY19 and $1.01 for Q1 FY20 include operating results of Corporate & All Other Segments segment. See slide 65 for a Reconciliation of Adjusted Operating Results to Earnings Per Share.(2) Realized price after hedging.

    $61.70 $62.92$2.61

    $2.32

    Q1 FY 2019 Q1 FY 2020

    Oil

    and

    Gas

    Pr

    icin

    g(2)

    Natural Gas ($/Mcfe)Crude Oil ($/Bbl)

    Oil Prices

    Natural Gas Prices

    $29.7 MM

    $34.8 MM

    Gat

    herin

    g R

    even

    ue

    Seneca Gross Production

    Drivers

    Natural Gas Production

    Oil Production

    Crude Oil (Mbbl) Natural Gas (Bcf)Exploration & Production

    $0.37Exploration &

    Production $0.28

    Gathering $0.16 Gathering

    $0.18

    Pipeline & Storage

    $0.29 Pipeline & Storage

    $0.21

    Utility$0.30

    Utility$0.31

    $1.12

    $1.01

    All Other: $0.00 All Other: $0.03

    Q1 FY19 Q1 FY20

    Adjusted Operating Results ($/share)(1)

  • 13

    Earnings Guidance

    FY2019 Adjusted Operating Results

    Non-regulated Businesses

    Exploration & ProductionGathering

    $3.45/share(1) $2.95 to $3.15/shareFY2020 Earnings Guidance

    Seneca Net Production: 235 to 245 Bcfe Gathering Revenues: $135-$145 million

    Natural Gas: ~$2.10/Mcf(2) (vs. $2.44/Mcf in FY 2019)

    Crude Oil: ~$62.00/Bbl(3) (vs. $61.65/Bbl in FY 2019)

    Key Guidance Drivers

    (1) Excludes items impacting comparability. See non-GAAP disclosure on slide 65 of this presentation.(2) Assumes NYMEX natural gas pricing of $2.05/MMBtu and in-basin spot pricing of $1.70/MMBtu for the remainder of fiscal 2020, and reflects the impact of existing financial hedges, firm sales and firm transportation contracts.(3) Assumes NYMEX (WTI) oil pricing of $55.00/Bbl and California-MWSS pricing differentials of 104% to WTI, and reflects impact of existing financial hedge contracts.

    Production & Gathering Throughput

    Realized natural gas prices (after-hedge)

    Utility Operating Income

    Regulated BusinessesPipeline & StorageUtility Guidance assumes normal weather; higher gross margin expected to be offset by cost inflation

    ~$290-295 million in revenues (expansion revenues partial offset by full year of Empire contract expiration)

    Pipeline & Storage Revenues

    Tax Rate

    Realized oil prices (after-hedge)

    Higher effective tax rate Effective tax rate ~25% (enhanced oil recovery credit unavailable in FY2020)

    Pipeline & Storage Pension Costs Expected to increase by ~$4 million from FY19

    DD&A Expense Guidance of $0.73 - $0.77/Mcf (vs. $0.73 in FY 2019) due to higher recorded asset retirement obligations in California

  • 14

    Exploration & Production and Gathering OverviewSeneca Resources Company, LLC ~ National Fuel Gas Midstream Company, LLC

  • 15

    Proved Reserves

    29.0 30.2 27.7 24.9

    1,6751,973

    2,357

    2,950

    1,8492,154

    2,523

    3,099

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    3,000

    3,500

    2016 2017 2018 2019At September 30

    Natural Gas (Bcf)

    Crude Oil (MMbbl)

    372% Reserve Replacement Rate

    Seneca Drill-bit F&D = $0.67/Mcfe(1)

    Appalachia Drill-bit F&D = $0.62/Mcfe(1)

    (1) Seneca “Drill-bit” finding and development (“F&D”) costs exclude the impact of reserve revisions. Seneca Drill-Bit F&D and Appalachia Drill-Bit F&D are 3-year averages.

    Total Proved Reserves (Bcfe)

    Fiscal 2019 Proved Reserves Stats

    $1.32

    $0.98 $0.74

    $0.56

    $0.00

    $0.50

    $1.00

    $1.50

    2016 2017 2018 2019

    3-Year Average F&D Cost ($/Mcfe)

    67%33%

    PDPs PUDs

    E&P and Gathering

  • 16

    Further reduce activity to 1-rig development program in summer 2020 (moved from 3 to 2 rigs in January 2020)

    Development focused in WDA-Utica, with return trips to existing pads expected to drive strong E&P and Gathering returns

    Gross production growth will benefit NFG’s Gathering segment

    Layer in additional firm sales in advance of new firm transportation capacity expected in late 2021 (Leidy South)

    Minimal capital investment in California to generate significant cash flow

    Growing Production within Disciplined Capital Program

    19.4 17.6 15.9 ~16

    154.1 160.5 195.9 219-229

    173.5 178.1211.8

    235-245

    050

    100150200250

    2017 2018 2019 2020E

    $38 $26 $30 $25-$30

    $208$330

    $462$350-$380

    $246

    $356

    $492

    $375-$410

    $0

    $100

    $200

    $300

    $400

    $500

    $600

    2017 2018 2019 2020E

    Appalachia West Coast (California)

    Near-Term Strategy E&P Net Capital Expenditures ($ millions)(1)

    E&P Net Production (Bcfe)

    E&P and Gathering

    (1) A reconciliation to Capital Expenditures as presented on the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows is included at the end of this presentation.FY17 and FY18 reflects the netting of $7 million and $17 million, respectively, of up-front proceeds received from joint development partner for working interest in joint development wells.

  • 17

    Significant Appalachian Acreage Position

    Average gross production(1): ~372 MMcf/d

    Mostly leased (16-18% royalty) with no significant near-term lease expirations

    ~70 remaining Marcellus & Utica locations:

    Breakeven (15% IRR) consolidated economics of $1.40 or less

    Additional Marcellus (Tioga Co.) & Geneseo(Lycoming Co.) potential

    Eastern Development Area (EDA)

    Western Development Area (WDA)

    Average gross production(1): ~357 MMcf/d Over 1,000 potential Marcellus & Utica locations ~90 locations where gathering/pad infrastructure in

    place from prior drilling activities, driving returns: Breakeven (15% IRR) consolidated

    economics of $1.60 or less Royalty free mineral ownership Highly contiguous nature drives efficiencies

    E&P and Gathering

    EDA - 70,000 AcresWDA - 715,000 Acres

    (1) Average EDA and WDA gross production, as well as WDA-CRV Utica and Marcellus production (see slide 20), and Covington/Tract 595 Production (see slide 24), is for the quarter ended December 31, 2019.

  • 18

    Western Development AreaMarcellus Core Acreage

    vs. Utica Appraisal Trend(1)

    (1) The Utica Shale lies approximately 5,000 feet beneath Seneca’s WDA Marcellus acreage. (2) Appraisal program currently in progress. Additional tests are planned. Prior Marcellus delineation tests helped define the prospective limits of the Marcellus core acreage; planned testing in the Utica is expected to do the same.

    Large well inventory:

    Marcellus Shale: 600+ well locations remaining / 200,000 acres

    Utica Shale: 500+ potential locations across Utica trend / evaluating extent of prospective acreage(2)

    Fee acreage (no royalty) enhances economics and provides development flexibility

    Use of existing gathering, pad, and water infrastructure for Utica drives increased Appalachian program returns

    Highly contiguous position drives best in class well costs

    Long-term firm contracts support growth

    Additional appraisal tests planned to delineate the Rich Valley to Boone Mountain corridor

    E&P and Gathering

    WDA Highlights

    Area of Re-Development 70-75 remaining Utica locations

    on existing Marcellus pads

    ?Key Utica testsPast Marcellus delineation testsUtica Trend (currently evaluating)Marcellus Core Acreage

    Boone Mountain Utica Test Well2.3 Bcf /1,000ft

  • 19

    WDA-CRV Utica Results and Type Curve

    Tested / producing from 29 Utica wells in WDA-CRV Drawdown management is critical: restricted

    drawdown appears to significantly improve well performance and EURs

    Produced fluid blend %: At high produced water blend rates, both well performance and EURs appear to be negatively impacted

    WDA-CRV Utica Appraisal Update

    E&P and Gathering

    WDA-CRV Types Curves – Normalized to 9,000’

    WDA-CRV Utica Development Plan

    Continue Optimizing Utica D&C completion design, focusing on: Proppant loading

    Stage spacing

    Produced fluid blend Tailor development plan to use existing pad,

    water and gathering infrastructure 0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

    Cum

    ulat

    ive

    Prod

    uctio

    n (B

    CF)

    Months On

    WDA-CRV Utica Type Curve

    WDA-CRV Marcellus Type Curve

    EUR(Bcf/1000’)

    IRR% $2.00(1)

    Break-even15% IRR(1)

    Utica - CRV 1.6 - 1.7 25% $1.60

    Marcellus - CRV 1.1 - 1.2 26% $1.57

    (1) Internal Rate of Return is for consolidated Seneca and Gathering, is pre-tax, and includes expected gathering capital expenditures for remaining return trip locations, well costs under current cost structure, and non-gathering LOE.

    Consolidated WDA-CRV Return Trip Economics

  • 20

    Avg. CRV Utica Production: 92 MMcf/d

    Est. EURs (Return Trips): 1.6-1.7 Bcf / 1,000 lateral feet Avg. CRV Marcellus Production: 226 MMcf/d

    Est. EURs (Return Trips): 1.1-1.2 Bcf / 1,000 lateral feet

    Clermont Rich Valley Utica Development Utilizes Existing Gathering, Water & Pad Infrastructure

    WDA: CRV Return Trips Drive Utica Economics

    WDA-CRV Marcellus WDA-CRV Utica

    Existing Line

    Leased

    Seneca Fee

    Producing

    FY20 Producer

    Development

    E&P and Gathering

    Existing Line

    Leased

    Seneca Fee

    Producing

    FY20 Producer

    Development

  • 21

    Leveraging Existing Gathering, Water and Pad Infrastructure Enhances Returns

    Limited New Infrastructure Needed to Support Production Growth

    WDA Well Costs(1) WDA-CRV Consolidated Economics

    Coordination between upstream and midstream activities enhances returns,

    provides economies of scale and significant operational flexibility

    (1) WDA Marcellus well costs reflect drilling, completion & gathering costs for 192 drilled and completed wells as of 9/30/18. WDA-CRV Utica well costs reflect expected drilling, completion & gathering costs for the remaining locations in area of redevelopment. (2) Internal Rate of Return for Seneca WDA includes estimated well costs under current cost structure, and anticipated LOE and Gathering costs. Internal Rate of Return for Seneca WDA and Gathering includes expected gathering capital expenditures for

    remaining return trip locations, well costs under current cost structure, and non-gathering LOE.

    $685$875-$925

    $210

    $0

    $200

    $400

    $600

    $800

    $1,000

    Marcellus(Historic)

    Utica - CRV(Current)

    $/ la

    tera

    l foo

    t

    Drilling & Completion Gathering

    $895$900 - $950

    1.0 -1.1

    1.6 -1.7

    0.0

    0.3

    0.6

    0.9

    1.2

    1.5

    1.8

    Marcellus(Historic)

    Utica - CRV(Current)

    EUR

    / 1,0

    00 fe

    et (B

    cf)

    ~60% EUR increase expected per well

    Total cost per well expected to marginally increase

    WDA EURs

    At a $2.00 netback price, consolidated Seneca WDA and Gathering IRR is

    approximately 25%, an uplift of ~10% over standalone Seneca WDA economics(2)

    ~10% IRR Uplift Expected

    E&P and Gathering

  • 22

    Integrated Development – WDA Gathering System

    Current System In-Service

    Capacity: 470 MMcf per day

    Interconnects with TGP 300 and NFG Supply

    Total Investment to Date: $310 million

    38,120 HP of compression (3 stations)

    Future Build-Out

    Modest gathering pipeline and compression investment required to support Seneca’s Utica development

    Opportunity for 300 miles of pipelines and six compressor stations (+60,000 HP installed) as Seneca’s drilling activity continues

    Gathering System Build-Out Tailored to Accommodate Seneca’s WDA Development

    Clermont Gathering System Map

    E&P and Gathering

  • 23

    WDA Firm Transportation and Sales Capacity

    Will continue to layer-in firm sales deals of short and longer duration on TGP 300 to reduce spot exposure

    WDA spot realizations track TGP Station 313 pricing, typically 10¢ - 20¢ better than TGP Marcellus Zone 4

    Leidy South will provide additional capacity to premium markets (Transco Zone 6)

    WDA Exit Capacity Supports Productionand Enhances Consolidated Returns

    WDA Contracted Firm Transport and Gross Sales Volumes (MDth/d)

    E&P and Gathering

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    Niagara Expansion Project (TGP and NFG)FT Capacity: 158,000 Dth/d @ $0.67/Dth

    Firm Sales: NYMEX & DAWN

    WDA - TGP 300Firm Sales

    Leidy SouthTransco Zone 6 330,000 Dth/d(1)

    (1) Portion of Leidy South capacity will likely be utilized by EDA Lycoming County production.

    WDA Gas Marketing Strategy

  • 24

    Eastern Development Area

    EDA Acreage – 70,000 AcresEDA Highlights

    1 DCNR Tract 007 (Tioga Co., Pa)• Utica development resumed in third quarter fiscal 2018

    • 35-40 remaining Utica locations

    • Gathering infrastructure: NFG Midstream Wellsboro

    • Marcellus Shale expected to provide ~60 additional locations

    E&P and Gathering

    2

    1

    3

    2 Covington & DCNR Tract 595 (Tioga Co., Pa.)• Marcellus locations fully developed (average daily gross production of ~74 MMcf/d)

    • Gathering infrastructure: NFG Midstream Covington

    • Opportunity for future Utica appraisal

    3 DCNR Tract 100 & Gamble (Lycoming Co., Pa.)• 30-35 remaining Marcellus locations• Firm transportation capacity: Atlantic Sunrise (189 MDth/d)

    • Gathering infrastructure: NFG Midstream Trout Run

    • Geneseo Shale expected to provide 100 - 120 additional locations

  • 25

    EDA Marcellus: Lycoming County Development

    Marcellus Development in Lycoming County has Resumed in Connection with Atlantic Sunrise

    (1) Includes physical fixed price and NYMEX-based firm sales contracts that do not carry any additional transportation costs.

    E&P and Gathering

    Prolific Marcellus acreage with peer leading well results 30-35 remaining Marcellus locations – breakeven (15% IRR)

    ‘consolidated economics of ~$1.11 Near-term development focused on filling Atlantic Sunrise capacity

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    Gro

    ss F

    irm V

    olum

    es (M

    Dth

    /d)

    EDA – Transco Firm Contracts

    Atlantic Sunrise (Transco)FT Capacity: 189,405 Dth/d

    Cost: $0.73/DthFirm Sales: NYMEX+

    Transco Firm Sales(1)

    Existing Line

    Leased

    Seneca Fee

    Producing

    FY20 Producer

    Development

  • 26

    EDA Utica: Tioga County Development

    Development Focused on Tract 007 Production Area, with Production Underpinned by Firm Sales

    (1) Includes physical fixed price and NYMEX-based firm sales contracts that do not carry any additional transportation costs.

    E&P and Gathering

    0

    25

    50

    75

    100

    125

    150

    Gro

    ss F

    irm V

    olum

    es (M

    Dth

    /d)

    Northeast Supply Diversification ProjectFT Capacity: 50,000 Dth/d @ $0.50/Dth

    Firm Sales: NYMEX and DAWN

    EDA - TGP 300Firm Sales(1)

    UPDATEEDA – TGP 300 Firm Contracts DCNR Tract 007

    Existing Line

    Leased

    Seneca Fee

    Producing

    FY20 Producer

    Development

  • 27

    0

    100,000

    200,000

    300,000

    400,000

    500,000

    600,000

    700,000

    0 2 4 6 8 10 12

    Nor

    mal

    ized

    Cum

    ulat

    ive

    Prod

    uctio

    n (M

    CF/

    1,00

    0’)

    Months On

    EDA Utica: Tioga County Development

    Tract 007 Utica Wells Brought Online in Q2 Fiscal 2019 Tracking Best Industry Results to Date

    Production from first multi-well pad (4 wells) brought online in February/March 2019

    Early results compare favorably with industry Tioga County wells

    35-40 remaining locations – breakeven (15% IRR) consolidated economics at ~$1.40/Mcf

    E&P and Gathering

    Tract 007 Utica Development Update

    Tract 007 Pad K Early Well Results(1)

    (1) All numbers are average of 4 Pad K wells brought online in February and March 2019. (2) Three wells brought online in February 2019 restricted to ~15 MMCFPD, and one well brought online in late

    March 2019 restricted to ~10 MMCFPD.

    (1) Well Count: 4 Lateral Length: 7,582’ IP30 Rate: 13.8 MMcf/day IP180 Rate: 13.3 MMcf/day Drawdown Management: restricted drawdown

    appears to improve well performance

    Tract 007 Utica Well Results vs. Industry

    Early production limited to 10-15 MMcf/day by

    drawdown management(2)

    Pad K Wells (Avg.)(1)

    Industry Tioga Wells

  • 28

    Integrated Development – EDA Gathering Systems

    Total Investment (to date): ~$48 million

    Capacity: 220,000 Dth per day (Interconnect w/ TGP 300)

    Production Source: Seneca Resources – Tioga Co. (Covington & DCNR Tract 595)

    Total Investment (to date): ~$239 million

    Capacity: 466,000 to 585,000 Dth per day (Interconnect w/ Transco)

    Production Source: Seneca Resources – Lycoming Co. (DCNR Tract 100 & Gamble)

    Third-party volumes under contract and expected to come online in early fiscal 2021

    Covington Gathering System

    Trout Run Gathering System

    Gathering Segment Supporting Seneca and Third-Party Production & Future DevelopmentWellsboro Gathering System

    Total Investment (to date): ~$22 million

    Capacity: up to 200,000 Dth per day (Interconnect w/ TGP 300)

    Production Source: Seneca Resources – Tioga Co. (DCNR Tract 007)

    E&P and Gathering

    1

    2

    3

  • 29

    Long-term Contracts Supporting Appalachian Production

    (1) Represents base firm sales contracts not tied to firm transportation capacity. Base firm sales are either fixed priced or priced at an index (e.g., NYMEX ) +/- a fixed basis and do not carry any transportation costs.

    Seneca continues to layer-in firm sales contracts to lock-in drilling economics and minimize spot exposure ahead of firm transportation in-service dates

    E&P and Gathering

    -

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    1,000

    Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22Northeast Supply Diversification 50,000 Dth/d

    Niagara Expansion (TGP & NFG)Delivery Markets: Canada-Dawn & TETCO

    158,000 Dth/d

    Atlantic Sunrise (Transco)Delivery Markets: Mid-Atlantic & Southeast U.S.

    189,405 Dth/d

    In-BasinFirm Sales

    Contracts(1)

    Leidy South (Transco & NFG)

    Transco Zone 6 330,000 Dth/d

    Seneca Appalachia Natural Gas MarketingGross Firm Contract Volumes (Mdth/day)

  • 30

    336,100 ($0.46)

    343,000 ($0.54)

    341,000 ($0.54) 299,400 ($0.57)

    294,100 ($0.61) 233,100

    ($0.62)233,000 ($0.63)

    32,400 ($0.68) 41,000 ($0.81) 41,000 ($0.81)41,600 ($0.81) 43,200 ($0.85)

    73,600 ($0.82) 74,100 ($0.82)

    25,000 ($0.09)

    79,000 ($0.63)

    78,400 ($0.69) 123,400 ($0.54)

    141,100 $0.04 161,100 ($0.61)

    160,600 ($0.70)

    149,700 $2.40

    108,900 $2.23

    108,200 $2.23

    109,100 $2.23

    112,000 $2.23

    118,800 $2.21

    118,500 $2.21

    ~611,900

    543,200 571,900 568,600 573,500 590,400 586,600 586,200

    Q1 FY20 Q2 FY20 Q3 FY20 Q4 FY20 Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q4 FY21

    NYMEX Dawn Other Fixed Price

    Near-term Firm Sales Provide Market & Price Certainty

    Net Contracted Firm Sales Volumes (Dth per day)Contracted Index Price Differentials ($ per Dth)(1)

    Daily Net Production

    659,300 689,300 681,800 681,800 696,900 689,300 681,800Gross Firm Sales Volumes (Dth/d)

    E&P and Gathering

    (1) Values shown represent the weighted average fixed price or weighted average differential relative to NYMEX (netback price) less any associated transportation costs. Transportation costs include minor variable components such as the Canadian exchange rate and fuel components. With respect to “Other”, the weighted average differential relative to NYMEX (netback price) includes net contracted firm sales at various indices, which are to subject to fluctuations in the market, such as seasonal demand swings, and is calculated using forward basis at various associated locations as specified by the underlying contract.

  • 31

    California Oil

    Stable Oil Production | Minimal Capital Investment | Steady Free Cash Flow

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    Location Formation Production Method

    Avg. Daily Production

    (net Boe/d)(1)

    1 East Coalinga/ Other Temblor Primary 494

    2 North Lost HillsTulare &

    EtchegoinPrimary/

    Steam flood 880

    3 South Lost HillsMonterey

    Shale Primary 1,204

    4 North Midway SunsetTulare & Potter Steam flood 2,865

    5 South Midway Sunset Antelope Steam flood 1,970

    TOTAL WEST DIVISION AVG. NET PRODUCTION(1) 7,413 Boe/d

    E&P and Gathering

    (1) Average daily net production (oil and natural gas) for West division for quarter ended December 31, 2019.

  • 32

    California Capital Expenditures vs. Production

    8,863 8,033

    7,257 ~7,250

    2017 2018 2019 2020

    Fiscal Year

    West Division Average Net Daily Production (Boe)West Division Annual Capital Expenditures ($ MM)(1)

    $38

    $26$30

    $25-$30

    2017 2018 2019 2020

    Fiscal YearEstimate

    (1) Seneca West Division capital expenditures includes Seneca corporate and eliminations.

    E&P and Gathering

    Sespe Sale Closed on 5/1/18(reduced production by ~900 Boe/d)

    Estimate

  • 33

    Pioneer

    South MWSS

    Acreage

    North MWSS

    AcreageSec. 17N

    29%

    55%

    41%

    NMWSS & 17N SMWSS & Pioneer East Coalinga

    California Development Activities

    Modest near-term capital program focused on locations that earn attractive returns in current oil price environment

    A&D will focus on low cost, bolt-on opportunities

    Sec. 17, Pioneer, and East Coalinga development to provide future growth

    North

    Project IRRs at $55/Bbl(1)

    (1) Reflects pre-tax IRRs at a $55/Bbl WTI.

    E&P and Gathering

    Seneca West Economics

    South

    East Coalinga

    North

    South

  • 34

    Fiscal 2020 Production and Price Certainty

    ~58 Bcfe

    235-245 Bcfe

    ~102 Bcf

    ~43 Bcf (2)~25 Bcf

    ~12 Bcfe

    0

    40

    80

    120

    160

    200

    240

    280

    YTD FY20Actuals

    Fixed Price + FirmSales w/ Hedge

    Firm Sales(Unhedged)

    Spot Sales California TotalSeneca

    Prod

    uctio

    n (B

    cfe)

    (1) Average realized price reflects uplift from financial hedges less fixed differentials under firm sales contracts and any firm transportation costs.(2) Indicates firm sales contracts with fixed index differentials but not backed by a matching financial hedge.

    102 Bcf locked-in realizing net ~$2.28/Mcf (1)

    43 Bcf of additional basis protection

    Spot production assumed to be sold

    at ~$1.70 for remainder of FY20

    145 Bcf of Appalachian Production Protected by Firm Sales

    73% of oil production hedged at $61.88 /Bbl

    E&P and Gathering

  • 35

    1,278

    852

    456

    0

    250

    500

    750

    1,000

    1,250

    1,500

    1,750

    2,000

    2,250

    2,500

    FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022

    Brent NYMEX

    FY 20 Crude Oil~73% Hedged(2)

    Strong Hedge Book

    Natural Gas Swap & Fixed Physical Sales Contracts (Millions MMBtu)

    105.1

    57.440.5

    0

    25

    50

    75

    100

    125

    150

    175

    200

    225

    250

    275

    FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022

    NYMEX Swaps Dawn Swaps Fixed Price Physical Sales

    (1) Fixed price physical sales exclude joint development partner’s share of fixed price contract WDA volumes as specified under the joint development agreement.(2) Reflects percentage of projected production for FY20 hedged at the midpoint of the production guidance range.(3) Seneca’s remaining FY20 production reflects the total FY20 production guidance of 235-245 Bcfe, or 240 Bcfe at the midpoint, less Q1 actual production.

    Crude Oil Swap Contracts (Thousands Bbls)

    (1)

    FY 20 Nat Gas~60% Hedged(2)

    Remaining FY 2020 Production(3) Remaining FY 2020 Production(3)

    E&P and Gathering

  • 36

    $0.70 $0.73$0.73 -$0.77

    FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020E

    $0.60 $0.60 $0.61

    $0.09 $0.07 $0.08$0.69 $0.67 ~$0.69

    FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020E Gathering & Transport LOE (non-Gathering) G&A Taxes & Other

    UPDATE

    Seneca Operating Costs

    Competitive, low cost structure in Appalachia and California supports strong cash margins

    Gathering fee generates significant revenue stream for affiliated gathering company

    Seneca DD&ARate

    $/Mcfe

    $0.54 $0.56 $0.57

    $0.38 $0.32 $0.30

    $0.34 $0.30 $0.28

    $0.14 $0.14 $0.11

    $1.40 $1.32 ~$1.26

    FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020E

    (1)

    $20.81$17.91

    ~$20.40

    FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020E

    Appalachia LOE & Gathering $/Mcfe

    California LOE$/Boe

    Total Seneca Cash OpEx$/Mcfe

    (1)

    (2)

    (2)

    (1) G&A estimate represents the midpoint of the G&A guidance of $0.27 to $0.30 for fiscal 2020.(2) The total of the two LOE components represents the midpoint of the LOE guidance range of $0.85 to $0.89 for fiscal 2020.

    E&P and Gathering

  • 37

    Pipeline and Storage OverviewNational Fuel Gas Supply Corporation ~ Empire Pipeline, Inc.

  • 38

    Pipeline & Storage Segment Overview

    (1) As of September 30, 2019 as disclosed in the Company’s fiscal 2019 form 10-K.(2) As of December 31, 2018 calculated from National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation’s and Empire Pipeline, Inc.’s 2018 FERC Form-2 reports, respectively.

    Empire Pipeline, Inc.

    National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation

    Empire Pipeline

    Supply Corp.

    Contracted Capacity(1): Firm Transportation: 3,078 MDth per day Firm Storage: 70,693 Mdth (fully subscribed)

    Rate Base(2): ~$863 million FERC Rate Proceeding Status:

    Filed rate case on 7/31/19 New rates expected to go into effect (subject to

    refund) on 2/1/20

    Contracted Capacity(1): Firm Transportation: 853 MDth per day Firm Storage: 3,753 Mdth (fully subscribed)

    Rate Base(2): ~$247 million FERC Rate Proceeding Status:

    Rate case settlement approved May 2019 New transportation rates went into effect on 1/1/19

    Pipeline & Storage

  • 39

    Empire North Project

    Target in-service: fourth quarter fiscal 2020 (construction underway)

    Est. capital cost: $145 million Est. annual revenues: ~$25 million Receipt point: Jackson (Tioga Co., Pa. production) Design capacity and delivery points: 175,000 Dth/d to Chippawa (TCPL interconnect)

    30,000 Dth/d to Hopewell (TGP 200 interconnect) Major facilities: 2 new compressor stations in NY (1) & Pa. (1)

    No new pipeline construction Regulatory process: FERC Certificate issued 3/7/19

    FERC Notice to Proceed issued 5/2/19

    Pipeline & Storage

    Fully Subscribed Project will Provide 205,000 Dth/day of Incremental Firm Transportation

  • 40

    All Seneca volumes will flow through wholly-owned NFG gathering facilities

    FM100 Project - Consolidated Benefit for NFG

    330,000 Dth/d of new transportation capacity from WDA and EDA acreage positions to premium markets

    New Transco capacity (Leidy South): 330,000 Dth/day Rate(1) : competitive with other expansion project rates in

    Seneca’s current transportation portfolio Delivery point(s): Transco Zone 6 interconnections

    Seneca

    Lease to Transco of new capacity: 330,000 Dth/day Estimated annual lease revenues: ~$35 million Target in-service: late calendar year 2021

    Supply Corp.

    Project expected to provide long-term earnings uplift to Seneca, Supply Corp. and Gathering

    Pipeline & Storage

    Gathering

    (1) Includes lease of new capacity from Supply Corp. to Transco.

  • 41

    FM100 Project – Significant Investment by Supply Corp.

    Pipeline & Storage

    Estimated capital cost: $279 million Expansion facilities: ~$159 million Modernization facilities: ~$120 million

    Facilities (all in Pennsylvania) include: Approximately 30 miles of new pipeline 2 new compressor stations (totaling

    approximately 37,000 HP) New interconnection station and modification

    of existing interconnection station Abandonment of approximately 45 miles of

    existing pipeline and compressor station

    Regulatory process: FERC 7(b) / 7(c) certificate application

    submitted 7/18/19

  • 42

    Continued Expansion of the NFG Supply System

    Line N to Monaca Project

    Project: Firm transportation service to a new ethane cracker facility being built by Shell Chemical Appalachia, LLC

    In-service date: November 1, 2019 Capital cost: ~$24.5 million Contracted capacity: 133,000 Dth/day

    Project: New firm transportation service for on-system demand

    Open season capacity: Awarded 165,000 Dth/day to foundation shipper. Precedent agreement in negotiations.

    Pipeline & Storage

    Additional Line N Expansion Potential (Supply OS 221)

  • 43

    Northern Access Project

    Total cost: ~$500 MM(1) (~$57 MM spent to date)

    Estimated annual revenues: ~$84 million

    Delivery points:

    350,000 Dth/d to Chippawa (TCPL interconnect)

    140,000 Dth/d to East Aurora (TGP 200 line)

    Regulatory/legal status:

    Feb. 2017 – FERC 7(c) certificate issued

    Aug. 2018 – FERC issued Order finding that NY DEC waived water quality certification (WQC)

    Feb. 2019 – U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals vacated and remanded NY DEC denial of WQC

    April 2019 – FERC denied rehearing of WQC waiver order (upholding waiver finding)

    Supply and Empire currently working to finalize remaining federal authorizations

    Pipeline & Storage

    To Dawn

    (1) Preliminary Cost Estimate.

  • 44

    Pipeline & Storage Customer Mix

    Producer35%

    LDC42%

    Marketer10%

    Outside Pipeline

    7%

    End User6%

    3.9 MMDth/d

    (1) Contracted as of 10/31/2019.

    Customer Transportation by Shipper Type(1) Affiliated Customer Mix (Contracted Capacity)

    72%

    6%25%

    44%

    28%

    94%75%

    56%

    LDCs Producers Marketers FirmStorage

    Affiliated Non-Affiliated

    Firm Transport

    Pipeline & Storage

  • 45

    Utility OverviewNational Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation

  • 46

    New York & Pennsylvania Service Territories

    New York

    Total Customers(1): 531,400ROE: 8.7% (NY PSC Rate Case Order, April 2017)Rate Mechanisms:o Revenue Decouplingo Weather Normalizationo Low Income Rateso Merchant Function Charge (Uncollectibles Adj.)o 90/10 Sharing (Large Customers)o System Modernization Tracker

    Pennsylvania

    Total Customers(1): 212,000ROE: Black Box Settlement (2007)Rate Mechanisms:o Low Income Rateso Merchant Function Charge

    (1) As of September 30, 2019.

    Utility

  • 47

    New York Rate Case Outcome

    Rate Order Summary:

    Revenue Requirement: $5.9 million Rate Base: $704 million Allowed Return on Equity (ROE): 8.7% Capital Structure: 42.9% equity Other notable items:

    New rates became effective 5/1/17 Retains rate mechanisms in place under prior order (revenue decoupling, weather

    normalization, merchant function charge, 90/10 large customer sharing) System modernization tracker for Leak Prone Pipe (LPP) Earnings sharing started 4/1/18 (50/50 sharing starts at ROE in excess of 9.2%)

    On April 20, 2017, the New York Public Service Commission issued a Rate Order relating to NFG Distribution’s rate case (No. 16-G-0257) filed in April 2016.

    Utility

  • 48

    Utility Continues its Significant Investments in Safety

    $61.8 $63.6$69.9 $74.1

    $98.0

    $80.9 $85.6$95.8 $90-$100

    $0.0

    $25.0

    $50.0

    $75.0

    $100.0

    $125.0

    2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E

    Cap

    ital E

    xpen

    ditu

    res

    ($ m

    illio

    ns)

    Fiscal Year

    Capital Expenditures for Safety Total Capital Expenditures

    Modernization Spending in NY Expected to Grow Gross Margin By $2 MM - $5 MM Annually

    (1)

    (1) A reconciliation to Capital Expenditures as presented on the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows is included at the end of this presentation.

    Utility

    System modernization tracker in NY allows recovery of pipeline replacementcosts, which is expected to drive modest gross margin and rate base growth

  • 49

    Accelerating Pipeline Replacement & Modernization

    Wrought Iron

    Plastic

    Coated Bare

    130146 144

    159 158

    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Calendar Year

    NY9,738 miles

    PA*4,843 miles

    * No Cast Iron Mains in Pa.*

    Miles of Utility Main Pipeline ReplacedUtility Mains by Material(1)

    Wrought Iron

    Cast Iron

    Plastic

    Coated Bare

    Utility

    (1) All values are reported on a calendar year basis as of December 31, 2019.

  • 50

    A Proven History of Controlling Costs

    $200 $189 $195

    $166 $169 $168

    $31 $28 $27

    $197 $196 $196

    $0

    $50

    $100

    $150

    $200

    $250

    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 TTM 12/31/19Fiscal Year

    O&M Expense (GAAP) Non-Service Pension Costs

    Utility O&M Expense and Non-Service Pension Costs ($ millions)

    Utility

    (1)

    (1) As of October 1, 2018, Operation and Maintenance Expense does not include non-service pension costs, which were re-classified as Other Income (Deductions) on the Company’s Income Statement.

  • 51

    Consolidated Financial OverviewUpstream I Midstream I Downstream

  • 52

    Adjusted Operating Results ($ per share)(1)

    Diversified, Balanced Earnings and Cash Flows

    (1) A reconciliation of Adjusted Operating Results to Earnings per Share, by segment, as presented on the Consolidated Statement of Income and Earnings Reinvested in the Business is included at the end of this presentation.(2) Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA includes Corporate & All Other Segments. A reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Net Income, by segment, as presented on the Consolidated Statement of Income and Earnings Reinvested in the Business is included

    at the end of this presentation.

    Adjusted EBITDA ($ millions)(2)

    $176 $178

    $162 $157

    $108 $112

    $351 $353

    $785 $788

    $0

    $200

    $400

    $600

    $800

    FY 2019 TTM 12/31/19

    $0.70 Utility

    $0.85 Pipeline & Storage

    $0.67 Gathering

    $1.26

    $3.45 $2.95 to $3.15

    $0.00

    $1.00

    $2.00

    $3.00

    $4.00

    FY 2019 FY 2020 Guidance

    Exploration & Production

    Rate Regulated

    ~50%

    Rate Regulated

    ~43%

  • 53

    $89 $94 $98 $81 $86 $96 $90-$100

    $140$230

    $114 $95 $93 $143 $180-$215

    $138$118

    $54$33 $48

    $50 $50-$60

    $603$557

    $99 $246$356

    $492 $375-$410

    $970 $1,001

    $366$455

    $583

    $781 $695-$785

    $0

    $250

    $500

    $750

    $1,000

    $1,250

    2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020GuidanceFiscal Year

    Exploration & Production Gathering Pipeline & Storage Utility

    Disciplined, Flexible Capital Allocation

    (2)

    (1) Total Capital Expenditures include Corporate and All Other. A reconciliation to Capital Expenditures as presented on the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows is included at the end of this presentation. (2) FY16, FY17, and FY18 reflects the netting of $157 million, $7 million, and $17 million, respectively, of up-front proceeds received from joint development partner for working interest in joint development wells, and $21M in intercompany asset transfers in FY18.

    Capital Expenditures by Segment ($ millions)(1)

  • 54

    Maintaining Strong Balance Sheet & Liquidity

    Total Equity51%

    Total Debt49%

    $4.3 Billion Total Capitalizationas of December 31, 2019

    2.51 x 2.45 x 2.47 x 2.61 x2.72 x

    2016 2017 2018 2019 TTM 12/31/19

    Fiscal Year End

    Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA(1) Capitalization

    Debt Maturity Profile ($MM) Liquidity

    Committed Credit FacilitiesShort-term Debt OutstandingAvailable Short-term Credit FacilitiesCash Balance at 12/31/19Total Liquidity at 12/31/19

    $ 750 MM(140 MM)

    610 MM35 MM

    $ 645 MM

    $500 $549 $500

    $300 $300

    $0

    $200

    $400

    $600

    (1) Net Debt is net of cash and temporary cash investments. Reconciliations of Net Debt and Adjusted EBITDA to Net Income are included at the end of this presentation.

  • 55

    Appendix

  • 56

    Safe Harbor For Forward Looking StatementsThis presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements regarding future prospects,plans, objectives, goals, projections, estimates of oil and gas quantities, strategies, future events or performance and underlying assumptions, capital structure, anticipatedcapital expenditures, completion of construction projects, projections for pension and other post-retirement benefit obligations, impacts of the adoption of new accounting rules,and possible outcomes of litigation or regulatory proceedings, as well as statements that are identified by the use of the words “anticipates,” “estimates,” “expects,” “forecasts,”“intends,” “plans,” “predicts,” “projects,” “believes,” “seeks,” “will,” “may,” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties which couldcause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. The Company’s expectations, beliefs and projections are expressedin good faith and are believed by the Company to have a reasonable basis, but there can be no assurance that management’s expectations, beliefs or projections will result or beachieved or accomplished.

    In addition to other factors, the following are important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in the forward-looking statements: changesin the price of natural gas or oil; impairments under the SEC’s full cost ceiling test for natural gas and oil reserves; changes in laws, regulations or judicial interpretations to whichthe Company is subject, including those involving derivatives, taxes, safety, employment, climate change, other environmental matters, real property, and exploration andproduction activities such as hydraulic fracturing; delays or changes in costs or plans with respect to Company projects or related projects of other companies, includingdifficulties or delays in obtaining necessary governmental approvals, permits or orders or in obtaining the cooperation of interconnecting facility operators;governmental/regulatory actions, initiatives and proceedings, including those involving rate cases (which address, among other things, target rates of return, rate design andretained natural gas), environmental/safety requirements, affiliate relationships, industry structure, and franchise renewal; changes in price differentials between similarquantities of natural gas or oil at different geographic locations, and the effect of such changes on commodity production, revenues and demand for pipeline transportationcapacity to or from such locations; financial and economic conditions, including the availability of credit, and occurrences affecting the Company’s ability to obtain financing onacceptable terms for working capital, capital expenditures and other investments, including any downgrades in the Company’s credit ratings and changes in interest rates andother capital market conditions; factors affecting the Company’s ability to successfully identify, drill for and produce economically viable natural gas and oil reserves, includingamong others geology, lease availability, title disputes, weather conditions, shortages, delays or unavailability of equipment and services required in drilling operations,insufficient gathering, processing and transportation capacity, the need to obtain governmental approvals and permits, and compliance with environmental laws and regulations;increasing health care costs and the resulting effect on health insurance premiums and on the obligation to provide other post-retirement benefits; other changes in pricedifferentials between similar quantities of natural gas or oil having different quality, heating value, hydrocarbon mix or delivery date; the cost and effects of legal andadministrative claims against the Company or activist shareholder campaigns to effect changes at the Company; uncertainty of oil and gas reserve estimates; significantdifferences between the Company’s projected and actual production levels for natural gas or oil; changes in demographic patterns and weather conditions; changes in theavailability, price or accounting treatment of derivative financial instruments; changes in laws, actuarial assumptions, the interest rate environment and the return on plan/trustassets related to the Company’s pension and other post-retirement benefits, which can affect future funding obligations and costs and plan liabilities; changes in economicconditions, including global, national or regional recessions, and their effect on the demand for, and customers’ ability to pay for, the Company’s products and services; thecreditworthiness or performance of the Company’s key suppliers, customers and counterparties; the impact of information technology, cybersecurity or data security breaches;economic disruptions or uninsured losses resulting from major accidents, fires, severe weather, natural disasters, terrorist activities or acts of war; significant differencesbetween the Company’s projected and actual capital expenditures and operating expenses; or increasing costs of insurance, changes in coverage and the ability to obtaininsurance.

    Forward-looking statements include estimates of oil and gas quantities. Proved oil and gas reserves are those quantities of oil and gas which, by analysis of geoscience andengineering data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be economically producible under existing economic conditions, operating methods and governmentregulations. Other estimates of oil and gas quantities, including estimates of probable reserves, possible reserves, and resource potential, are by their nature more speculativethan estimates of proved reserves. Accordingly, estimates other than proved reserves are subject to substantially greater risk of being actually realized. Investors are urged toconsider closely the disclosure in our Form 10-K available at www.nationalfuelgas.com. You can also obtain this form on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov.

    For a discussion of the risks set forth above and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from results referred to in the forward-looking statements, see“Risk Factors” in the Company’s Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2019 and the Form 10-Q for the quarter ended December 31, 2019. The Company disclaimsany obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date thereof or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.

    Appendix

    http://www.nationalfuelgas.com/http://www.sec.gov/

  • 57

    Consolidated Seneca and Gathering Economics

    (1) Stand-alone Seneca breakeven economics (15% pre-tax IRR) by prospect are as follows: Tract 100 & Gamble: $1.51; Tract 007: $1.74; CRV Return Trip (Utica): $2.00; CRV Return Trip (Marcellus): $1.95. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for stand-alone Seneca is pre-tax and includes estimated well costs under current cost structure, LOE, and Gathering tariffs anticipated for each prospect.

    (2) Net realized price reflects either (a) price received at the gathering system interconnect or (b) price received at delivery market net of firm transportation charges.(3) Consolidated Seneca and Gathering IRR is pre-tax and includes expected gathering capital expenditures, well costs under current cost structure, and non-gathering LOE.

    Over 1,000 Potential Additional Marcellus and Utica Locations Economic on a Stand-Alone Basis at ~$2.00/MMBtu(1)

    Appendix

    $2.50IRR (%) (3)

    $2.25IRR (%) (3)

    $2.00IRR (%) (3)

    Tract 100 & GambleLycoming Co.

    Marcellus 30-35 5,500 -6,000

    2.5-2.9 $1,050-$1,100

    89% 73% 59% $1.11

    Tract 007Tioga Co.

    Utica 35-40 8,500 -9,000

    2.0-2.3 $1,250-$1,300

    63% 51% 41% $1.40

    CRV Return Trip Utica 70-75 9,000-10,000

    1.6-1.7 $900-$950 39% 30% 25% $1.60

    CRV Return Trip Marcellus 15-20 8,500-9,500

    1.1-1.2 $675-$725 42% 33% 26% $1.57

    EDA

    EUR (Bcf/1000')

    Average CAPEX

    ($M/1000')

    Realized Pricing (2)15% IRR (3)

    RealizedPrice

    WDA

    Prospect ReservoirLocations

    Remainingto Be Drilled

    Average Completed

    Lateral Length (ft)

    COVER

    FY19 Q4 Investor Relations Packet

    01/30/2020

    Model Inputs

    WDA Utica

    xyy

    DurationCost

    70 wells700.9460.928

    120 wells1200.8820.886

    100 wells1000.90760.9028

    DCNR 007 Utica

    xyy

    DurationCost

    20 wells201.081

    70 wells701.0220.975

    43 wells431.053320.9885

    PadAreaMarcUtica $/bbl 1019$/bblAve Well #

    CRV D09-D2 UWDA4$2.00MarcWDA2.1565

    DCNR 100 M3 MLycoming2$1.75MarcLycoming2.3114

    HEMLOCK E09-S2WDA6$2.00UticaDCNR 0072.0006

    CRV C08-X2 UWDA6$2.70UticaWDA2.2125

    DCNR 100 R2 MLycoming5$1.80

    HEMLOCK E09-UWDA42$1.75

    GAMBLE J Lycoming5$3.25

    CRV C09-G2 UWDA6$1.600719$/bblAve Well #Water Delta

    GAMBLE K2 MLycoming8$3.50MarcWDA2.12570.031

    HEMLOCK E09-T2 MWDA4$2.25MarcLycoming2.21750.094

    CRV D08-O2 UWDA4$2.25UticaDCNR 0071.56350.438

    CRV D08-U2 UWDA4$2.25UticaWDA1.67160.541

    WEST BRANCH E08-L2 UWDA6$2.25

    DCNR 007 D UDCNR 0076$2.00

    CRV E09-E2 UWDA5$2.25

    Boone Mtn. F14-COP-I UWDA1$2.25

    CRV C08-G2 UWDA4$2.25

    HEMLOCK F10-F2WDA82$2.25

    GAMBLE A2 MLycoming5$2.00

    CRV C09-D3WDA35$2.25

    GAMBLE GLycoming4$2.50

    HEMLOCK E09-U2 MWDA8$2.25

    BEECHWOOD B09-I UWDA7$2.25

    GAMBLE OLycoming5$2.00

    BEECHWOOD C09-J UWDA5$2.25

    CRV D09-M UWDA5$2.25

    HEMLOCK E09-T3 UWDA6$2.25

    GAMBLE J2 MLycoming4$2.00

    CRV E08-T2 UWDA5$2.25

    HEMLOCK E09-J2 UWDA4$2.25

    CRV D08-N2 UWDA6$2.25

    HEMLOCK F10-F3 UWDA4$2.25

    HEMLOCK E09-U3WDA38$2.25

    GAMBLE P2 MLycoming2$2.00

    CRV D09-M2 UWDA7$2.25

    CRV D08-M2WDA26$2.25

    BEECHWOOD C09-Q UWDA7$2.25

    HEMLOCK E09-S3 UWDA4$2.25

    Lycoming

    AREA INFORMATION

    PROSPECTLycoming*DCNR 100 & Gamble comboTest Month09/2020

    COUNTYLycomingGross Gas Prod, MMcf (shrunk)2386.91

    Avg Wells per Pad5*from planningGross Gas Prod, MMcf (unshrunk)2391.69Frac$1,557,400drill duration16.2373940763

    Net Var Exp, M$$1,316.70Drillout$360,570

    ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSNet Fix Exp, M$$11.93Toe Prep$87,000

    BTU (mmBTU/mcf)1.03112*in LOE sheet, ARIES inputsNet Tot Exp, M$$1,328.62Flowback$218,200W/ Water

    FIXED LOE ($/month/well)$994Actual Gas Price, $/Mcf$2.000Sum Total Compl$2,223,170$2,692,326

    VARIABLE LOE ($/mcf)$0.036Net Gas Price, $/Mcf$2.062Water$469,156

    MIDSTREAM FEE ($/mcf)$0.516*$0.50 transport feeNet Gas Revenue. M$$4,134.80

    WATER DISPOSAL LOE ($/well, 1 time fee)$0*water disposal cost removed

    PRICING (Realized)$2.50 / $2.25 / $2.00

    BASIS DIFFERENTIAL($0.730)

    SHRINKAGE %0.20.998

    IMPACT FEESPUD_2019*sames as start date

    CAPITAL (and Timing)ARIES EntriesValuesCapitalModel(s) Used

    DRILLING (-6 Months)$2,211,350*drill capital x efficiencies + rig move/#wellsDRILLING (-6 Months)2211.350DRILLING (-6 Months)DCNR 100 Marc, No Capital Efficiency

    COMPLETION (-2 Months)$2,583,308*frac + drillout + toe prep + flowback + waterCOMPLETION (-2 Months)2583.308COMPLETION (-2 Months)used components: DCNR 100/Gamble 200' stg

    PRODUCTION (-1 Month)$426,000PRODUCTION (-1 Month)426.000PRODUCTION (-1 Month)EDA 5-7 wells

    PAD (-7 Months)$440,000*from planningPAD (-7 Months)440.000PAD (-7 Months)Provided by Planning

    TOTAL CAPEX$5,660,657TOTAL CAPEX5660.657

    TREATED LENGTH (FT)5,800*per KWMUL Factor1.07411.056

    STAGE LENGTH200

    OWNERSHIP

    WI (%)100

    NRI (%)84

    TIMING ASSUMPTIONSTYPE CURVE - 5,400' 13,534 MMcf

    Production start date of 05/2020*current month + 7 months16706XM/D1.84MOSB/1.276.5

    See CAPITAL section for CAPEX timings (relative to production start)*report date = current quarter10627XM/D16.16IMOSB/1.145

    6603XM/D6EXPB/.743.8

    RESERVESX30M/DXIMOSEXP6

    P50 EUR/1000'2.70 BCF/1000'*in TC sheet

    P50 EUR15.65 BCF17943.481XM/D1.84MOSB/1.276.5

    11414.185XM/D16.16IMOSB/1.145

    7092.111XM/D6EXPB/.743.8

    X30M/DXIMOSEXP6

    2.702037037NEW TYPE CURVE - 5,400' 14,591 MMcf (18 month compression)

    15671.8148148148162004788.4M/D18MOSB/2.265

    6224XM/D6EXPB/1.041.5

    X30M/DXIMOSEXP 6

    17400.0005143.096M/D18MOSB/2.265

    6685.037XM/D6EXPB/1.041.5

    X30M/DXIMOSEXP 6

    2.6983333333NEW TYPE CURVE - 5,400' 14,571 MMcf (12 month compression)

    15650.3333333333162005670M/D12MOSB/2.265

    7371XM/D6EXPB/1.044.5

    X30M/DXIMOSEXP 6

    17400.0006090.000M/D12MOSB/2.265

    7917.000XM/D6EXPB/1.044.5

    X30M/DXIMOSEXP 6

    DCNR 007 - Tioga Utica

    AREA INFORMATION

    PROSPECTDCNR 007 UticaTest Month

    COUNTYTiogaGross Gas Prod, MMcf (shrunk)3109.73

    Avg Wells per Pad6Gross Gas Prod, MMcf (unshrunk)3173.193877551Frac$3,605,280drill duration29.6562218316

    Net Var Exp, M$$1,693.36Drillout$634,005

    ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSNet Fix Exp, M$$11.93Toe Prep$107,000

    BTU (mmBTU/mcf)1.01560*in LOE sheet, ARIES inputsNet Tot Exp, M$$1,705.28Flowback$392,600

    FIXED LOE ($/month/well)$994Actual Gas Price, $/Mcf$2.000Water$928,000

    VARIABLE LOE ($/mcf)$0.036Net Gas Price, $/Mcf$2.031Total w/ 200' stg$5,666,885

    MIDSTREAM FEE ($/mcf)$0.508*$0.50 transport feeNet Gas Revenue. M$$5,179.52

    WATER DISPOSAL LOE ($/well, 1 time fee)$0*water disposal cost removed

    PRICING (Realized)$2.50 / $2.25 / $2.00

    BASIS DIFFERENTIAL($0.695)

    SHRINKAGE %2.00.98

    IMPACT FEESPUD_2019*sames as start date

    CAPITAL (and Timing)ARIES EntriesValuesCapitalModel(s) Used

    DRILLING (-6 Months)$3,492,515*drill capital x efficiencies + rig movesDRILLING (-6 Months)3492.515DRILLING (-6 Months)007/Boone Mtn Utica, 43 well capital efficiency (0.97286)

    COMPLETION (-2 Months)$5,414,515*frac + drillout + toe prep + flowback + waterCOMPLETION (-2 Months)5414.515COMPLETION (-2 Months)used components: Various Utica 200' stg

    PRODUCTION (-1 Month)$426,000PRODUCTION (-1 Month)426.000PRODUCTION (-1 Month)EDA 5-7 wells

    PAD (-7 Months)$366,667*from planningPAD (-7 Months)366.667PAD (-7 Months)Provided by Planning

    TOTAL CAPEX$9,699,697TOTAL CAPEX9849.697

    TREATED LENGTH (FT)8,700MUL Factor1.16001.13

    STAGE LENGTH150

    OWNERSHIP

    WI (%)100

    NRI (%)82

    TYPE CURVE - 7,500' 15,212 MMcf

    TIMING ASSUMPTIONS

    Production start date of 05/2020*current month + 7 months

    See CAPITAL section for CAPEX timings (relative to production start)*report date = current quarter

    RESERVES

    P50 EUR/1000'2.25 BCF/1000'*in TC sheet

    P50 EUR19.57 BCF*in TC sheetSTARTNov-18

    GAS1941019410M/D2MOEXPX

    "21000XM/D6EXPB/172

    "X30M/DXYRSEXP6

    DCNR 100

    AREA INFORMATION

    PROSPECTDCNR 100Test Month

    COUNTYLycomingGross Gas Prod, MMcf (shrunk)2788.3

    Avg Wells per Pad4.4444444444Gross Gas Prod, MMcf (unshrunk)2822.1659919028Frac$1,631,200

    Net Var Exp, M$$1,525.13Drillout$221,920

    ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSNet Fix Exp, M$$15.17Toe Prep$60,000

    BTU (mmBTU/mcf)1.03120*in LOE sheet, ARIES inputsNet Tot Exp, M$$1,540.30Flowback$40,000W/ Water

    FIXED LOE ($/month/well)$1,264Actual Gas Price, $/Mcf$2.000Sum Total Compl$1,953,120$2,355,253

    VARIABLE LOE ($/mcf)$0.031Net Gas Price, $/Mcf$1.031Calc Total Compl$2,040,420$2,442,553

    MIDSTREAM FEE ($/mcf)$0.516*$0.50 transport feeNet Gas Revenue. M$$2,875.29Water$402,133

    WATER DISPOSAL LOE ($/well, 1 time fee)$29,885

    PRICING (Realized)$2.50 / $2.25 / $2.00

    BASIS DIFFERENTIAL($0.730)

    SHRINKAGE %1.2

    IMPACT FEESPUD_2018*sames as start date

    CAPITAL (and Timing)ARIES EntriesValuesCapitalModel(s) Used

    DRILLING (-6 Months)$1,726,811DRILLING (-6 Months)1726.811DRILLING (-6 Months)DCNR 100 Marc, 2018 Capital Efficiency (1.00)

    COMPLETION (-2 Months)$2,355,253COMPLETION (-2 Months)2355.253COMPLETION (-2 Months)used components: Model 7, RCS 10K 200' stg WDA or DCNR 595 6 stg/day

    PRODUCTION (-1 Month)$426,000PRODUCTION (-1 Month)426.000PRODUCTION (-1 Month)DCNR 100 5 well

    PAD (-7 Months)$495,000PAD (-7 Months)495.000PAD (-7 Months)$2.2MM split out by well

    TOTAL CAPEX$5,003,065TOTAL CAPEX5153.065

    TREATED LENGTH (FT)5,600*from geoMUL Factor1.03701.018

    STAGE LENGTH190

    OWNERSHIP

    WI (%)100

    NRI (%)84

    TIMING ASSUMPTIONS

    Production start date of 08/2018*current month + 7 months

    See CAPITAL section for CAPEX timings (relative to production start)*report date = current quarter

    RESERVES

    P50 EUR/1000'2.49 BCF/1000'*in TC sheet

    P50 EUR13.95 BCF

    CRV Marcellus

    AREA INFORMATION

    PROSPECTCore Areas*CRV/Hemlock/RidgewayTest Month

    COUNTYVariousGross Gas Prod, MMcf (shrunk)984.4150'

    Avg Wells per Pad5*from planningGross Gas Prod, MMcf (unshrunk)993.3400605449Frac$2,851,900drill duration10.3601820412

    Net Var Exp, M$$597.50Drillout$429,900

    ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSNet Fix Exp, M$$4.34Toe Prep$84,000

    BTU (mmBTU/mcf)1.04120*in LOE sheet, ARIES inputsNet Tot Exp, M$$601.84Flowback$80,000W/ Water

    FIXED LOE ($/month/well)$362Actual Gas Price, $/Mcf$2.000Sum Total Compl$3,445,800$4,027,988

    VARIABLE LOE ($/mcf)$0.034Net Gas Price, $/Mcf$2.082Water$582,188

    MIDSTREAM FEE ($/mcf)$0.573*$0.55 transport feeNet Gas Revenue. M$$2,049.91

    WATER DISPOSAL LOE ($/well, 1 time fee)$0*water disposal cost removed

    PRICING (Realized)$2.50 / $2.25 / $2.00

    BASIS DIFFERENTIAL($0.770)

    SHRINKAGE %0.90.991

    IMPACT FEESPUD_2019*sames as start date

    CAPITAL (and Timing)ARIES EntriesValuesCapitalModel(s) Used

    DRILLING (-6 Months)$1,655,874*drill capital x efficiencies + rig movesDRILLING (-6 Months)1655.874DRILLING (-6 Months)WDA Marc, No Capital Efficiency

    COMPLETION (-2 Months)$3,828,355*frac + drillout + toe prep + flowback + waterCOMPLETION (-2 Months)3828.355COMPLETION (-2 Months)used components: Hemlock Marc 200' stg

    PRODUCTION (-1 Month)$260,000PRODUCTION (-1 Month)260.000PRODUCTION (-1 Month)WDA Bulk 7-10 wells

    PAD (-7 Months)$180,000PAD (-7 Months)180.000PAD (-7 Months)Provided by planning

    TOTAL CAPEX$5,924,228TOTAL CAPEX6074.228

    TREATED LENGTH (FT)9,000*from geo - adjustedMUL Factor1.20000.99

    STAGE LENGTH150

    OWNERSHIP

    WI (%)100$0.658

    NRI (%)1000.0466666667

    TIMING ASSUMPTIONSTYPE CURVE - 8,500' 8,885 MMcf

    Production start date of 05/2020*current month + 7 monthsGAS8075XM/D1MOSB/459

    See CAPITAL section for CAPEX timings (relative to production start)*report date = current quarter"5758.75XM/D23IMOSB/257

    "1873.4XM/D4.8791EXPB/119

    RESERVES"X30M/DXIMOSEXP4.8791

    P50 EUR/1000'1.15 BCF/1000'*not in TC sheet

    P50 EUR10.35 BCF

    Core Areas

    AREA INFORMATION

    PROSPECTCore Areas*CRV/Hemlock/RidgewayTest Month

    COUNTYVariousGross Gas Prod, MMcf (shrunk)984.4150'

    Avg Wells per Pad5*from planningGross Gas Prod, MMcf (unshrunk)993.3400605449Frac$2,700,000drill duration10.1458747721

    Net Var Exp, M$$597.50Drillout$417,850

    ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSNet Fix Exp, M$$4.34Toe Prep$84,000

    BTU (mmBTU/mcf)1.04120*in LOE sheet, ARIES inputsNet Tot Exp, M$$601.84Flowback$80,000W/ Water

    FIXED LOE ($/month/well)$362Actual Gas Price, $/Mcf$2.000Sum Total Compl$3,281,850$3,825,225

    VARIABLE LOE ($/mcf)$0.034Net Gas Price, $/Mcf$2.082Water$543,375

    MIDSTREAM FEE ($/mcf)$0.573*$0.55 transport feeNet Gas Revenue. M$$2,049.91

    WATER DISPOSAL LOE ($/well, 1 time fee)$0*water disposal cost removed

    PRICING (Realized)$2.50 / $2.25 / $2.00

    BASIS DIFFERENTIAL($0.770)

    SHRINKAGE %0.90.991

    IMPACT FEESPUD_2019*sames as start date

    CAPITAL (and Timing)ARIES EntriesValuesCapitalModel(s) Used

    DRILLING (-6 Months)$1,606,988*drill capital x efficiencies + rig movesDRILLING (-6 Months)1606.988DRILLING (-6 Months)WDA Marc, No Capital Efficiency

    COMPLETION (-2 Months)$3,636,225*frac + drillout + toe prep + flowback + waterCOMPLETION (-2 Months)3636.225COMPLETION (-2 Months)used components: Hemlock Marc 200' stg

    PRODUCTION (-1 Month)$260,000PRODUCTION (-1 Month)260.000PRODUCTION (-1 Month)WDA Bulk 7-10 wells

    PAD (-7 Months)$440,000PAD (-7 Months)440.000PAD (-7 Months)Provided by planning

    TOTAL CAPEX$5,943,213TOTAL CAPEX6093.213

    TREATED LENGTH (FT)8,500*from geo - adjustedMUL Factor1.13330.99

    STAGE LENGTH150

    OWNERSHIP$1.21

    WI (%)100$1.47

    NRI (%)100

    TIMING ASSUMPTIONSTYPE CURVE - 8,500' 8,885 MMcf

    Production start date of 05/2020*current month + 7 monthsGAS8075XM/D1MOSB/459

    See CAPITAL section for CAPEX timings (relative to production start)*report date = current quarter"5758.75XM/D23IMOSB/257

    "1873.4XM/D4.8791EXPB/119

    RESERVES"X30M/DXIMOSEXP4.8791

    P50 EUR/1000'1.08 BCF/1000'*not in TC sheet

    P50 EUR9.18 BCF

    Rich Valley Utica

    AREA INFORMATION

    PROSPECTCRV UticaTest Month09/2020

    COUNTYVariousGross Gas Prod, MMcf (shrunk)1514.85200'

    Avg Wells per Pad5Gross Gas Prod, MMcf (unshrunk)1528.6074672048Frac$3,201,600drill duration24.2008243446

    Net Var Exp, M$$948.47Drillout$534,950

    ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSNet Fix Exp, M$$4.34Toe Prep$107,000

    BTU (mmBTU/mcf)1.02281*in LOE sheet, ARIES inputsNet Tot Exp, M$$952.82Flowback$393,200W/ Water

    FIXED LOE ($/month/well)$362Actual Gas Price, $/Mcf$2.000Sum Total Compl$4,236,750$5,232,150

    VARIABLE LOE ($/mcf)$0.063Net Gas Price, $/Mcf$2.046Water$995,400

    MIDSTREAM FEE ($/mcf)$0.563*$0.55 transport feeNet Gas Revenue. M$$3,098.81

    WATER DISPOSAL LOE ($/well, 1 time fee)$0*water disposal cost removed

    PRICING (Realized)$2.50 / $2.25 / $2.00

    BASIS DIFFERENTIAL($0.770)

    SHRINKAGE %0.90.991

    IMPACT FEESPUD_2019*sames as start date

    CAPITAL (and Timing)ARIES EntriesValuesCapitalModel(s) Used

    DRILLING (-5 Months)$3,007,356*drill capital x efficiencies + rig movesDRILLING (-6 Months)3007.356DRILLING (-6 Months)WDA Utica, 100 well Capital Efficiency

    COMPLETION (-2 Months)$5,008,038*frac + drillout + toe prep + flowback + waterCOMPLETION (-2 Months)5008.038COMPLETION (-2 Months)used components: Various Utica 200' stg

    PRODUCTION (-1 Month)$352,148*Prod + Fresh Wtr InjPRODUCTION (-1 Month)352.148PRODUCTION (-1 Month)WDA Bulk Utica 7-10 well + Fresh Water Injection Capital for 5 well pad

    PAD (-6 Months)$440,000180000PAD (-7 Months)440.000PAD (-7 Months)Provided by planning

    TOTAL CAPEX$8,807,542TOTAL CAPEX8807.542

    TREATED LENGTH (FT)9,000*from geoMUL Factor1.20001.1843

    STAGE LENGTH200

    OWNERSHIP

    WI (%)100

    NRI (%)100

    TYPE CURVE - 1,200' spacing, Q419

    TIMING ASSUMPTIONS

    Production start date of 05/2020*current month + 7 monthsSegmentStart RateEnd RateUnitsDurationDecline Type & ExponentDecline Rate

    See CAPITAL section for CAPEX timings (relative to production start)*report date = current quarter101M/D0.75MOSSPDX

    21XM/D1IMOSFLAT0

    RESERVES31XM/D12IMOSB/246

    P50 EUR/1000'1.73 BCF/1000'50XM/D4.8558EXPB/1.227.4

    P50 EUR15.61 BCF6X30M/DXIMOSEXP4.8558

    18007650M/D0.75MOSSPDX

    7650XM/D1IMOSFLAT0

    7650XM/D12IMOSB/246

    4131XM/D4.8558EXPB/1.227.4

    X30M/DXIMOSEXP4.8558

    RV-Boone Mt Utica

    AREA INFORMATION

    PROSPECTCRV UticaTest Month09/2020

    COUNTYVariousGross Gas Prod, MMcf (shrunk)1514.85200'

    Avg Wells per Pad5Gross Gas Prod, MMcf (unshrunk)1528.6074672048Frac$3,201,600drill duration24.2008243446

    Net Var Exp, M$$948.47Drillout$534,950

    ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSNet Fix Exp, M$$4.34Toe Prep$107,000

    BTU (mmBTU/mcf)1.02281*in LOE sheet, ARIES inputsNet Tot Exp, M$$952.82Flowback$393,200W/ Water

    FIXED LOE ($/month/well)$362Actual Gas Price, $/Mcf$2.000Sum Total Compl$4,236,750$5,232,150

    VARIABLE LOE ($/mcf)$0.063Net Gas Price, $/Mcf$2.046Water$995,400

    MIDSTREAM FEE ($/mcf)$0.563*$0.55 transport feeNet Gas Revenue. M$$3,098.81

    WATER DISPOSAL LOE ($/well, 1 time fee)$0*water disposal cost removed

    PRICING (Realized)$2.50 / $2.25 / $2.00

    BASIS DIFFERENTIAL($0.770)

    SHRINKAGE %0.90.991

    IMPACT FEESPUD_2019*sames as start date

    CAPITAL (and Timing)ARIES EntriesValuesCapitalModel(s) Used

    DRILLING (-5 Months)$3,007,356*drill capital x efficiencies + rig movesDRILLING (-6 Months)3007.356DRILLING (-6 Months)WDA Utica, 100 well Capital Efficiency

    COMPLETION (-2 Months)$5,008,038*frac + drillout + toe prep + flowback + waterCOMPLETION (-2 Months)5008.038COMPLETION (-2 Months)used components: Various Utica 200' stg

    PRODUCTION (-1 Month)$352,148*Prod + Fresh Wtr InjPRODUCTION (-1 Month)352.148PRODUCTION (-1 Month)WDA Bulk Utica 7-10 well + Fresh Water Injection Capital for 5 well pad

    PAD (-6 Months)$440,000180000PAD (-7 Months)440.000PAD (-7 Months)Provided by planning

    TOTAL CAPEX$8,807,542TOTAL CAPEX8807.542

    TREATED LENGTH (FT)9,000*from geoMUL Factor1.20001.1843

    STAGE LENGTH200

    OWNERSHIP

    WI (%)100

    NRI (%)100

    TYPE CURVE - 1,200' spacing, Q419

    TIMING ASSUMPTIONS

    Production start date of 05/2020*current month + 7 monthsSegmentStart RateEnd RateUnitsDurationDecline Type & ExponentDecline Rate

    See CAPITAL section for CAPEX timings (relative to production start)*report date = current quarter101M/D0.75MOSSPDX

    21XM/D1IMOSFLAT0

    RESERVES31XM/D12IMOSB/246

    P50 EUR/1000'1.82 BCF/1000'50XM/D4.8558EXPB/1.227.4

    P50 EUR16.40 BCF6X30M/DXIMOSEXP4.8558

    18007650M/D0.75MOSSPDX

    7650XM/D1IMOSFLAT0

    7650XM/D12IMOSB/246

    4131XM/D4.8558EXPB/1.227.4

    X30M/DXIMOSEXP4.8558

    Hemlock - West Branch Utica

    AREA INFORMATION

    PROSPECTCRV UticaTest Month09/2020

    COUNTYVariousGross Gas Prod, MMcf (shrunk)1514.85200'

    Avg Wells per Pad5Gross Gas Prod, MMcf (unshrunk)1528.6074672048Frac$3,372,700drill duration25.00578795

    Net Var Exp, M$$948.47Drillout$553,075

    ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSNet Fix Exp, M$$4.34Toe Prep$107,000

    BTU (mmBTU/mcf)1.02281*in LOE sheet, ARIES inputsNet Tot Exp, M$$952.82Flowback$393,200W/ Water

    FIXED LOE ($/month/well)$362Actual Gas Price, $/Mcf$2.000Sum Total Compl$4,425,975$5,361,651

    VARIABLE LOE ($/mcf)$0.063Net Gas Price, $/Mcf$2.046Water$935,676

    MIDSTREAM FEE ($/mcf)$0.563*$0.55 transport feeNet Gas Revenue. M$$3,098.81

    WATER DISPOSAL LOE ($/well, 1 time fee)$0*water disposal cost removed

    PRICING (Realized)$2.50 / $2.25 / $2.00

    BASIS DIFFERENTIAL($0.770)

    SHRINKAGE %0.90.991

    IMPACT FEESPUD_2019*sames as start date

    CAPITAL (and Timing)ARIES EntriesValuesCapitalModel(s) Used

    DRILLING (-5 Months)$2,735,634*drill capital x efficiencies + rig movesDRILLING (-6 Months)2735.634DRILLING (-6 Months)WDA Utica, 100 well Capital Efficiency

    COMPLETION (-2 Months)$5,125,562*frac + drillout + toe prep + flowback + waterCOMPLETION (-2 Months)5125.562COMPLETION (-2 Months)used components: Various Utica 200' stg

    PRODUCTION (-1 Month)$352,148*Prod + Fresh Wtr InjPRODUCTION (-1 Month)352.148PRODUCTION (-1 Month)WDA Bulk Utica 7-10 well + Fresh Water Injection Capital for 5 well pad

    PAD (-6 Months)$180,000180000PAD (-7 Months)180.000PAD (-7 Months)Provided by planning

    TOTAL CAPEX$8,393,344TOTAL CAPEX8393.344

    TREATED LENGTH (FT)9,500*from geoMUL Factor1.26671.1843

    STAGE LENGTH200

    OWNERSHIP

    WI (%)100

    NRI (%)100

    TYPE CURVE - 1,200' spacing, Q419

    TIMING ASSUMPTIONS

    Production start date of 05/2020*current month + 7 monthsSegmentStart RateEnd RateUnitsDurationDecline Type & ExponentDecline Rate

    See CAPITAL section for CAPEX timings (relative to production start)*report date = current quarter101M/D0.75MOSSPDX

    21XM/D1IMOSFLAT0

    RESERVES31XM/D12IMOSB/246

    P50 EUR/1000'1.62 BCF/1000'50XM/D4.8558EXPB/1.227.4

    P50 EUR15.38 BCF6X30M/DXIMOSEXP4.8558

    19008075M/D0.75MOSSPDX

    8075XM/D1IMOSFLAT0

    8075XM/D12IMOSB/246

    4360.5XM/D4.8558EXPB/1.227.4

    X30M/DXIMOSEXP4.8558

    Sheet1

    9K Q39K Q4IR Q3IR Q4

    00.01679882980.01679882980.02336391130.0172836988

    10.03915017460.03781140970.05091333280.0426968661

    20.06259734420.05776837330.07803916610.0672299669

    30.08377965740.07525710840.10149202140.0898237404

    40.10438538550.09207933340.1236035240.1095586515

    50.12327981650.10738642520.14340591810.1294226497

    60.14187758520.12235976150.16254252040.1476241213

    70.159656780.13660002620.18056475310.1655295665

    80.17617685740.14977556960.19710939290.1820981345

    90.19261802920.16284096490.21340963060.1985297589

    100.20798208210.17501257930.22851186320.2143395662

    110.22334808360.18715302650.24350518750.2291092649

    120.23824275110.19889291730.25794444170.2438770424

    130.25171153550.21042451860.27121974430.2577318492

    140.26727869460.22312205390.28600343120.2716044046

    150.28153194680.23497507630.29960102240.2850462224

    160.29557825760.24681859570.31304639520.2968406469

    170.30861849040.25792474950.32556128650.3095387265

    180.32160688090.26906627560.33805577590.3214882218

    190.33419427490.27989577070.3501886460.3335064488

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