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1 1 Investor Presentation October 2015

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Page 1: Investor Presentation › sites... · 2 Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking

1 1

Investor Presentation

October 2015

Page 2: Investor Presentation › sites... · 2 Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking

2 2

Forward Looking Statements

This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable

securities legislation. All forward-looking statements are based on our beliefs as well as assumptions based on information available at the time the assumptions were made

and on management’s experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, and expected future developments, as well as other factors deemed appropriate in the

circumstances. Forward-looking statements are not facts, but only predictions and generally can be identified by the use of statements that include phrases such as “may”,

“will”, “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”, “project”, “foresee”, “potential”, “enable”, “continue”, or other comparable terminology. These statements are not

guarantees of our future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other important factors that could cause our actual performance to be materially different from

that projected. In particular, this presentation contains forward-looking statements pertaining to our business and anticipated future financial and share price performance; our

success in executing on our growth project, including increasing customer contracts by 2021; anticipated gross margin from proprietary trading; achieving top quartile operations

and availability targets; realizing best performance in health and safety; funding strategy, including leveraging TransAlta Renewables Inc. (“TransAlta Renewables”); the timing

and the completion and commissioning of projects under development, including major projects such as the South Hedland Power Project and Sundance 7, and their attendant

costs; expectations regarding TransAlta Corporation’s (“TransAlta”) offer control in the Alberta market following the expiry of the power purchase arrangements; expectations

related to future earnings and cash flow from operating and contracting activities (including estimates of comparable earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and

amortization (“EBITDA”), comparable funds from operations (“FFO”), and comparable free cash flow; expectations for demand for electricity in both the short term and long

term, and the resulting impact on electricity prices; the impact of load growth, increased capacity, and natural gas costs on power prices; expectations in respect of generation

availability, capacity, and production; expectations regarding the role different energy sources will play in meeting future energy needs; expected financing of our capital

expenditures; expected governmental regulatory regimes and legislation and their expected impact on us and the timing of the implementation of such regimes and regulations,

as well as the cost of complying with resulting regulations and laws; our trading strategies and the risk involved in these strategies; estimates of future tax rates, future tax

expense, and the adequacy of tax provisions; accounting estimates; anticipated growth rates in our markets; the estimated contribution of Energy Marketing activities to gross

margin; and expectations relating to the performance of TransAlta Renewables’ assets and plans for the sale of contracted assets to TransAlta Renewables.

Factors that may adversely impact our forward-looking statements include risks relating to: fluctuations in market prices and the availability of fuel supplies required to generate

electricity; our ability to contract our generation for prices that will provide expected returns; the regulatory and political environments in the jurisdictions in which we operate;

environmental requirements and changes in, or liabilities under, these requirements; changes in general economic conditions including interest rates; operational risks involving

our facilities, including unplanned outages at such facilities; disruptions in the transmission and distribution of electricity; the effects of weather; disruptions in the source of fuels,

water, or wind required to operate our facilities; natural or man-made disasters; the threat of domestic terrorism and cyberattacks; equipment failure and our ability to carry out

or have completed the repairs in a cost-effective manner or timely manner; commodity risk management; industry risk and competition; fluctuations in the value of foreign

currencies and foreign political risks; the need for additional financing; structural subordination of securities; counterparty credit risk; insurance coverage; our provision for

income taxes; legal, regulatory, and contractual proceedings involving the Corporation; outcomes of investigations and disputes; reliance on key personnel; labour relations

matters; development projects and acquisitions, including delays in the construction of the South Hedland Power Project; failure to proceed with plans for the sale of contracted

assets to TransAlta Renewables as a result of failure to agree to commercial terms with the independent directors of TransAlta Renewables, adverse market conditions or

failure to obtain any required regulatory, shareholder or other third party approvals; and the satisfactory receipt of applicable regulatory approvals for existing and proposed

operations and growth initiatives. The foregoing risk factors, among others, are described in further detail in the Risk Management section of this MD&A and under the heading

“Risk Factors” in our Annual Information Form. Readers are urged to consider these factors carefully in evaluating the forward-looking statements and are cautioned not to

place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements included in this document are made only as of the date hereof and we do not

undertake to publicly update these forward-looking statements to reflect new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable laws. In light of these

risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, the forward-looking events might occur to a different extent or at a different time than we have described, or might not occur. We cannot

assure that projected results or events will be achieved.

Certain financial information contained in this presentation may not be standard measures defined under International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) and may not be

comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. These measures may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers and should not be

considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. For further information on non-IFRS financial measures we use, see the section

entitled “Non-IFRS Measures” contained in our Management Discussion and Analysis, filed with Canadian securities regulators on www.sedar.com.

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TransAlta Today

Persistent Low Power Prices

• TransAlta’s hedging strategy provides short-term protection

Current value reflects an over reaction to Alberta business risk

• Uncertain future for coal assets; addressed by ‘Dial-down Dial-up’ proposal

Diversified portfolio of assets

• Less than 30% of our cash flow is dependent on Alberta coal facilities

Solid business performance

• Diversified portfolio of highly contracted assets and hedging strategies deliver

solid EBITDA and FFO

Majority ownership of TransAlta Renewables

• Provides value and opportunities to raise funds and strengthen our balance

sheet

We believe TransAlta’s stock will provide strong value to investors

Page 4: Investor Presentation › sites... · 2 Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking

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~88% contracted

Remaining contract life of 5.5 years Coal: 4,931 MW 6 facilities in Canada and U.S.

~100% contracted

Average contract life of 12.4 years

Gas: 1,315 MW 12 facilities in Canada and

Australia; also 270km pipeline

~65% contracted

Average contract life of 10.1 years Wind: 1,381 MW 22 facilities in Canada and U.S

~96% contracted

Average contract life of 5.3 years

Hydro: 914 MW

27 facilities in Canada and U.S.

TransAlta’s Diversified Portfolio

100% contracted

Average contract life of 20-30 years Solar: 21 MW

5 facilities in the U.S.

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-$100

$100

$300

$500

$700

$900

$1,100

2012 2013 2014 2015E

Canadian Coal

U.S. Coal

Gas

Wind

Hydro

Corporate

Energy Marketing

EBITDA by Business Segment

$M 2014 Free EBITDA (1)

(1) Free EBITDA = EBITDA – Sustaining Capital

25%

7%

35%

24%

9%

2015 Guidance:

$980M - $1,010M

Avg. Price

$/MWh $68 $80 $50 $40

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6 6

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

2015 2016 2017 2018

Open Merchant Short term contract / Hedges

Long-term contract PPAs

Contracted Portfolio Supports Stable EBITDA

Contract and hedging strategy underpin stable cashflows ¹ As of September 2015

Alberta • Well hedged through 2016

• Market shocks allow opportunity to further

hedge at prices higher than the current

market

Pacific-Northwest • Puget Sound Energy and other long-term

contracts provide base of between

~280MW and 380MW

• Additional shorter-term hedges managed

dynamically to capture market volatility

Merchant exposure in Alberta and the

Pacific NW

2015 Hedge prices

AB ~$50/MWh

PacNW ~$40/MWh

2016 Hedge prices

AB ~$45 - $50/MWh

PacNW ~$40 - $45/MWh

Total portfolio contractedness1

MW 89% 86% 80% 70%

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Energy Marketing Capability - A Competitive Advantage

Energy

Marketing

and

Asset

Optimization

• Transacting in multiple markets

provides us with a competitive

advantage

• Targeting $40 to $60 million in

gross margin annually from

Proprietary Trading

• Preparing for roll off of Alberta

PPAs

• Increase customer contracts from

700 MW today to 3,000 MW by

2021

• Service behind the fence large

industrial customers in Canada,

U.S. and Australia

• Centralia

• Hydro peaking capability

• Ontario Gas supply and

dispatching

Asset Optimization

(30%)

External Customer

Business (50%)

Proprietary Trading

(20%)

Page 8: Investor Presentation › sites... · 2 Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking

8 8

2015 Strategic Objectives

TransAlta’s Strategic Goals

• Deliver results from the base business

• Strengthen our financial position

• Grow strategically

Page 9: Investor Presentation › sites... · 2 Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking

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Executing on our Strategic Objectives

• Serve Alberta with diverse energy generation fleet; serve

30% of provincial customers by 2021

• Provide customers with reliable and low cost power

• Leverage world class energy marketing team to deliver

value for customers and shareholders

Customer

Focus

• Maintain investment grade metrics

• Grow FFO/share by 3 – 5% and FCF/share by 4 – 6% per

year

Financial

Operations • Achieve top quartile operations and meet availability

targets

• Realize best performance in Health and Safety

Page 10: Investor Presentation › sites... · 2 Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking

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Funding Strategy

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Competitiveness

Financial Flexibility

Strategic Growth

Strengthening our Financial Position – Why?

Maintain investment grade credit metrics to remain competitive

Agency Rating Outlook S&P BBB- Stable

DBRS BBB Stable

Fitch BBB- Stable

Moody’s BAA3 Negative

1 Access to capital markets

2 Lower cost of debt

3 Access to customers

Current Ratings:

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Strengthened Financial Position

Reduced net debt by $500 million 2014

Targeting $300 - $500 million reduction in net debt in 2015

• Deliver on FFO and debt reduction targets and achieve FFO to Debt target of

20%

• As at Sept 30, 2015, ~$0.9 billion in available liquidity. We used our liquidity to

repay a USD$500 million Senior Note that matured in January

¹ Assumes 50/50 treatment of Preferred shares

$M Senior Debt FFO / Debt (1)

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2013 2014 2015E

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2013 2014 2015E

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Significant Financial Capacity

TransAlta needs to raise between $900 million and $1.1 billion over the next 3

years to meet our current funding requirements

Significant funding available to finance additional growth opportunities

Committed Funding Requirements (2015 - 2017)

$ millions Low High

Debt Reductions $ (300) - $ (500)

Committed Growth Capital - South Hedland $ (570) - $ (570)

Total Uses $ (870) - $(1,070)

Potential Sources (2015 - 2017)

$ millions Low High

Excess Cash Flow¹ $ 300 - $ 300

Pfd Shares $ 300 - $ 500

RNW Drop Downs $ 700 - $ 1,000

DRIP $ - - $ 200

Total Sources2 $ 1,300 - $ 2,000

¹ Cash Flow after deducting sustaining capital, dividends and partner distributions

2 Does not include potential partnerships

Page 14: Investor Presentation › sites... · 2 Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking

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TransAlta Corporation and TransAlta Renewables are strategically aligned

Leveraging TransAlta Renewables

TransAlta Renewables

TransAlta

Public

~65-75% ~25-35%

• TransAlta is the largest shareholder

of TransAlta Renewables and will

maintain ~65-75% ownership

• Unlocks the value of long-life contracted

assets on attractive terms

• Provides access to lower cost funding

• Funds growth and debt reduction

• Strong currency to support accretive

acquisition of third party assets

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TransAlta Renewables (TSX:RNW)

• Provides stable and consistent returns for investors through the ownership of highly

contracted power generation and other infrastructure assets.

$3.0 billion Market Cap

$2.4 million in 2014

adjusted EBITDA

$176 annual dividend per share

$0.84 billion Enterprise Value

Enterprise Value¹ $3.0 Billion

Market Cap. $2.2 Billion

2015E EBITDA² $245 Million

Dividend Yield 8.3%

Generating Capacity3 1,830 MW

Average Contract Life3 ~17 years

TransAlta Corporation’s Ownership 76%

¹ Does not include capital required to complete South Hedland Project

² Average estimate of research analysts covering TransAlta Renewables 3 Includes South Hedland project

* Enterprise Value and Market Cap. based on closing price as of October 30, 2015

Wind

Hydro

Gas Fired

Gas Pipeline

Transmission

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Executing Our Funding Strategy

The transaction delivered significant benefits to TransAlta:

• Raised ~$217 million in net cash proceeds that were used to

reduce borrowing on TransAlta’s credit facilities

• Received ~$1,067 million of Common and Class B Shares in

TransAlta Renewables, increasing its ownership from 70% to 76%

• Secured efficient funding for South Hedland as TransAlta

Renewables committed to fund the remaining project costs

estimated at ~$491 million

• Unlocked the value of TransAlta’s highly contracted Australian

portfolio (book value of the assets was ~$1.0 billion)

• Created a stronger sponsored vehicle positioned for future growth

In May 2015, TransAlta completed the previously announced $1.78 billion

investment by TransAlta Renewables in an economic interest based on the

cash flows of TransAlta’s Australian portfolio

Page 17: Investor Presentation › sites... · 2 Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking

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Significant Drop-Down Inventory

Potential Drop-Down Candidates from TransAlta Corporation

Gas Fired

Generation

• ~1,000 MW in Alberta & Ontario including:

• 244 MW Poplar Creek facility in AB

• 506 MW Sarnia facility in ON

• ~150 MW from 4 facilities through TA Cogen

• ~$220M in EBITDA

Alberta

Hydro

• ~800 MW from 13 units in Alberta, representing

90% of Alberta’s hydro

• ~$60 - $120M EBITDA

Other

Renewables

• 45 MW wind facility in AB

• 20 MW wind facility in ON

• 50 MW wind facility in Minnesota

• 21 MW solar facilities in

Massachusetts

• 99 MW wind facility in QC

• 7 MW hydro facility in ON

Recently

acquired from

Rockland Capital

Recently

acquired from

Suncor

Page 18: Investor Presentation › sites... · 2 Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking

18 18

Growth Strategy

Page 19: Investor Presentation › sites... · 2 Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking

19 19

Growth Strategy

Targeting accretive growth transactions while continuing to

strengthen our balance sheet

Positioning for the

final stages of

de-regulation in the

Alberta market

• Pursuing options to extend the life of our existing

assets

• Further diversifying our portfolio by investing in gas

and renewable generation

• Committed to continue growing our portfolio and

increasing our free cash flow

Target markets

with strong

fundamentals and

future growth

opportunities

• Support large industrial customers by offering

behind the fence service arrangements

• Growth through acquisitions and greenfield

• Disciplined returns and leverage

Page 20: Investor Presentation › sites... · 2 Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking

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Recent Growth Accomplishments

U.S. Wind and Solar Acquisition

• Acquired 71 MW of fully contracted renewable assets - 50 MW wind facility in

Minnesota, and 21 MW of solar facilities in Massachusetts

• Potential drop-down candidates for TransAlta Renewables

Poplar Creek Re-Structuring

• Poplar Creek contracted cash flow extended by seven years from 2023 to 2030

• Added two wind farms in Alberta and Ontario totaling 65 MW net

150 MW South Hedland gas-fired facility in Australia

• Continue to advance construction with expected commissioning in mid-2017

• $570 million capital spend project which is expected to produce $80M of annual

incremental FFO upon commissioning

Sundance 7 - an 856 MW natural gas-fired power plant in Alberta

• As of October 1, 2015 all regulatory approvals in place

• Strategic asset – flexibility should NDP decision impact timing

• Will be an essential addition to the Alberta electricity grid should the need for additional

supply arise at the end of the decade

Strategically reinvesting in our business for the long-term

Page 21: Investor Presentation › sites... · 2 Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking

21 21

Alberta Market

Page 22: Investor Presentation › sites... · 2 Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking

22 22

TransAlta’s Position in the Alberta Market

Current By 2020

• 40% of total generation; ~15% of total

customer business

• 30% of total customers under

1 - 5 year contracts

• 11% of total offer control • ~30% of total offer control

• ~80% contract coverage through

Alberta legislated PPAs and long-term

contracts

• Offering to large-scale customers

for cost of service long-term

contracts

• Capital needs to support strong

availability across the coal PPAs

• Manage coal plant availability to

support end of life with less

capital

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23 23

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2015 2016 2017

Managing Low Merchant Prices in Alberta

Opportunities

• The Alberta PPA’s were designed for low price periods

• TransAlta’s Alberta fleet has the lowest cost structure among Alberta generators

• Disciplined investment until prices recover

Risk

• If low prices persist to 2018, there is potential for the upside from the post-PPA value

of Sundance 1 & 2 to be reduced

Alberta Forward Curve

Oversupply in the Alberta power market and low gas prices

are driving historic lows for Alberta power prices

Page 24: Investor Presentation › sites... · 2 Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking

24 24

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Hydro Wind Coal Cogen/CC GasPeakers

Competitive Position - Low Cost Generation in Alberta

Diversity and optionality positions TransAlta for success in Alberta

• TransAlta has the largest and most diverse fleet in the Alberta market

• Low-cost structure allows us to be competitive while earning strong margins

• Diverse assets combined with marketing platform allows us to serve customers

in short and long-term

Marginal Costs Customer Representation

TransAlta’s Average

Marginal Cost in AB

$/MWh

Page 25: Investor Presentation › sites... · 2 Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking

25 25

Total Market Capacity: 15,777 MW

TransAlta currently has 11% offer control in the Alberta market – this will

increase to ~30% after the expiry of the Alberta PPA’s

Value Potential as Alberta Legislated PPAs Expire

TransAlta 11%

Capital Power 10%

ATCO 11%

ENMAX 18% Uncontrolled

11%

TransCanada 17%

Other 22%

TransAlta ~30%

Capital Power 15%

ATCO 12%

ENMAX 8%

Oil and Gas 15%

TransCanada 2%

Other 15%

Current Post PPA

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0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2015 - 2020 2015 - 2030

MW

Coal retirements/

Coal reinvestment

Alberta Requires Significant New Investment Longer-term

Load growth, coal retirements and extensions mean investment opportunities

Projected load growth and

capacity replacement

Peak load growth

• Oil and gas sector

remains a major

economic driver even

with weaker world oil

prices

• 3% average

historical load

growth

• ~ 1M barrels/d of

oilsands capacity

committed through

2017

Coal retirements/

Coal reinvestment

Peak load growth

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$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

2014 2017E 2018E 2021E

Existing Business Australian Growth Post PPA upside Post PPA upside

Near-term Growth Potential

Significant incremental EBITDA by 2021 when Alberta PPAs expire

Committed growth cash flows & Post-PPA upside support

EBITDA growth for the next 7 years

$M

Upside at

$75/MWH Upside at

$65/MWH Upside at

$55/MWH

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28 28

Environmental Regulations

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A Change of Leadership in Alberta

A new NDP Government was elected in Alberta in May 2015 and has created a

review panel to address climate change in the province. TransAlta is engaged in

active discussions with the government and believe in their vision for Alberta:

“Alberta’s vision is of a healthy and prosperous province that is a leader in

environmental stewardship and enjoys sustained economic growth, steady job

creation and a great quality of life.”

- Climate Leadership Discussion Document, Government of Alberta

The Government’s

objective

“Our plan must deliver on both environmental and social outcomes

as Alberta transitions toward a lower carbon future.”

Timing A proposal will be prepared in time for a world summit in Paris in

December 2015

Pre-election platform Indicated an intention to phase out coal-fired power on an

accelerated basis

Legislation since

taking office

Amended the current provincial regulations concerning carbon

emissions (Specified Gas Emitter Regulation (SGER)) which were

set to expire at the end of June 2015

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Coal Transition in Alberta – The Facts

• There is currently 6,277 MW of coal-fired installed capacity in Alberta, representing

approximately 39% of the overall supply

• Federal regulations amended in 2012 designate useful life of coal plants as 50 years

• Eight of TransAlta’s coal units, totaling 2,931MW, will be retired by the end of 2029 under

the federal rule, resulting in GHG reductions of 88% from current levels

• Three other coal units in Alberta will be decommissioned by 2029, representing

approximately 450MW

Plant MW (Net) Annual GWh1 Retirement Under

Federal GHG Regulations

Sundance 1 & 2 560 4,170 2019

Sundance 3 368 2,740 2026

Sundance 4 406 3,023 2027

Sundance 5 406 3,023 2028

Sundance 6 401 2,986 2029

Keephills 1 & 2 790 6,046 2029

Sheerness 1 98 1,415 2036

Sheerness 2 98 1,415 2040

Genesee 3 233 1,675 2055

Keephills 3 232 1,675 2061

¹ Based on 85% availability

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Alberta Ontario Texas California Germany United

Kingdom

Installed

Capacity

(MW)

16,151 34,780 80,149 78,865 177,140 84,987

Capacity

(Top 3 Fuels)

Coal – 39%

Cogen – 28%

Gas – 11%

Nuclear – 37%

Gas – 29%

Hydro – 24%

Gas – 63%

Coal – 25%

Nuclear – 6%

Gas – 59%

Cogen – 28%

Gas – 11%

Coal – 28%

Solar – 22%

Wind – 20%

Gas – 40%

Coal/Oil – 29%

Nuclear – 12%

Residential

Retail

(Delivered -

$CAD)

12.18

Cents/kWh

16.5

Cents/kWh

15.70

Cents/kWh

22.79

Cents/kWh

42.81

Cents/kWh

32

Cents/kWh

% Industrial

Load 65 25 26 17 46 26

Type of

Market

Energy-only

“Hybrid

Market”

Real-time

energy

Nodal Real-

time

Balancing

Market

Bilateral spot

Capacity

market

Day-ahead

Energy market

Forward

market

Forward

capacity

Balancing

energy market

Small market in

terms of installed

capacity

High concentration

of coal-fired

generation

Significant industrial

load

Differences to consider when

thinking about coal transition in

Alberta

Coal Transition – Comparative Factors

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Emissions Regulations in Alberta – The Facts

Alberta NDP platform is focused on ‘greening’ the province

Specified Gas Emitter

Regulation (SGER)

• Intensity based approach

• Target of 12% below a baseline emission level

• $15/tonne payment to Technology Fund or supply

credits

• NDP amended these in June 2015 -

• 2016 – 15% target and $20/tonne

• 2017 – 20% target and $30/tonne

Clean Air Strategic

Alliance

(CASA)

• Air emission standards (NOx, SO2, and PM)

applicable to new and existing generators

• Reviewed every five years based on Best Available

Technology Economically Achievable (BATEA)

• Generators must meet BATEA NOx and SO2

standard at later of PPA expiry or design life

• Emission credits can be used to comply

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“Dial Down – Dial Up” – Proposed Environmental Strategy

TransAlta submitted a proposal to the Alberta Climate Change Advisory Panel

that would see a “Dial Down” of coal-based electricity generation while the

province “Dials Up” renewables-based generation

Dial Down Coal Dial Up Renewables

Convert the existing intensity-based SGER

to a mass-based approach immediately

with generators reducing output of coal

units at their discretion

Mandatory renewables targets:

• 15% of total load in 2020

• 20% of total load in 2025

• 25% of total load in 2030

• Additional increases post 2030

Implement a 20% reduction in coal-fired

output immediately resulting in gross coal

GHG reductions of 8-10 Mt per year

Renewables investment supported by firm

contracts for either energy or renewable

attributes

Achieving the 20% reduction considered

compliance with SGER, thus no payments

required for stranded investment and no

direct costs to consumers

Competitive procurement model to

minimize costs

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Dial Down Coal - Dial Up Renewables

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

An

nu

al

ge

ne

rati

on

(G

Wh

)

Generation by fuel type for the Dial Down - Dial Up policy

Coal Gas Cogen Renewables

20% dial down of coal generation is replaced by a combination of

renewable and gas fired generation

Source: London Economics

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Alternate Solutions – Cost Comparison

• Pool prices in the Dial Down Dial Up scenario are similar to Business as

Usual

• RPS is driven by a large volume of renewable generation bidding in at $0

• Cap & Trade is the highest average Pool Price due to projected price of

$75/tonne price of carbon

Source: London Economics

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

No

min

al $

/MW

h

Average Annual Pool prices (nominal $/MWh)

Business as Usual Accelerated Retirement RPS Cap and trade Dial Down Dial Up

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36 36

Options for Life Extension of Canadian Coal Assets

• Currently evaluating Coal to Gas

Conversion to extend the life of coal

assets

• Carbon Capture & Storage has

significant potential and would allow

us to operate facilities beyond the

end of life dictated by the Federal

GHG regulation

Pursuing Options to Transition Our Coal Assets

Our goal is to meet Federal and Provincial regulations with investments

that will reduce GHG emissions and maintain cost competitiveness

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37 37

Appendix

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Financial performance by Business Segment

Business Segment 2011 2012 2013 2014

EBITDA ($M)

Canadian Coal $273 $373 $309 $386

U.S. Coal $211 $148 $66 $62

Gas $275 $312 $327 $309

Wind $163 $151 $180 $177

Hydro $105 $127 $147 $85

Energy Marketing $101 ($13) $61 $76

Corporate Segment ($84) ($83) ($67) $(59)

Comparable EBITDA ($M) $1,044 $1,016 $1,024 $1,036

Comparable FFO ($M) $812 $788 $729 $762

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Sustaining Capex by Business Segment

Sustaining Capital $M

Business Segment 2011 2012 2013 2014

Generation Segment

Canadian Coal $121 $316 $237 $211

U.S. Coal $63 $32 $16 $12

Gas $69 $49 $58 $63

Wind $7 $4 $9 $12

Hydro $32 $14 $14 $21

Corporate $27 $24 $22 $23

Sustaining Capital $319 $439 $341 $342