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Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1

Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

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Page 1: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

Investor Presentation

Peru

February 2016

1

Page 2: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy

Background information1

Economic Outlook3

2

The current equilibrium2

4 Risks and buffers

Page 3: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

Background

information1

Page 4: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

Peru is a country with a strong macroeconomic framework

Fast growing economy with low inflation

rate versus international peers

Modern economy with diversified

industries and less commodity dependent

Open to international investors and trade

Strong macroeconomic

fundamentals

2

Strong pipeline of investments will drive future

growth and competitiveness

Strategic Public Agendas (Competitiveness,

Diversification) aimed at lowering dependency

on commodity exports and increase resilience

to external shocks

Growing middle class and working population

create revenue stability

Strong pipeline of investments and

developing middle class to drive growth

3

Peru’s public sector balance sheet is

the strongest in its peer group

o Low levels of government debt (gross

or net)

o Liquid assets available for treasury

management

o Ample access to capital markets

o Low debt service

o Moderate government deficits

Healthiest balance sheet in its peer

group

4

Peru built significant buffers during the boom years

Buffers have remained strong even after the 2009

financial crisis, subsequent Chinese slowdown and

decline in commodity prices

As a result, Peru remains better prepared than

regional peers to cope with external and domestic

shocks

Sound macroeconomic management and

strong policy framework

1

Peru has delivered solid returns to

investors

o Regional outperformer

o Improving credit profile

o Healthy debt maturity profile

o Efficient and liquid curves at tenors

longer than 30 years

Efficient debt management5

1

4

Page 5: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

Peru led the region economic growth over the past decade1

(1) Wealth defined as the market value of financial assets plus non-financial assets (principally housing and land) less debts.

Source: World Development Indicators (WDI), IMF WEO October 2015, Credit Suisse - Global Wealth Report (October 2015).

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru

GDP Per Capita Average Annual % Change

Structural changes supported the outstanding

performance of the peruvian economy

LA5: GDP Per Capita 2002-2014 (Index 2002=100)

GDP Per Capita increased more than the

regional peers

4.0

4.0

4.1

4.1

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.8

5.3

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

New Zealand

Sweden

South Africa

Russia

Taiwan

Colombia

Peru

Malaysia

Norway

China

Real Annual Wealth Growth Rates 2000 – 2015 (%)

….and is among the top ten countries in terms of

wealth(1) increase

0.2

2.22.0

1.3

1.6

2.9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Peru World LAC World LAC Peru

1961-1990 1990-2014

5

Page 6: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

The outstanding performance was based on strong macroeconomic

fundamentals and policy continuity over 25 years

Gross Public Debt 2014 (% of GDP)

…and a prudent fiscal policy…

2006 – 2015 Inflation Average

Low inflation rates…

Source: Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP), IMF WEO/Fiscal Monitor (October 2015) and World Economic Forum 2015.

Macroeconomic Environment Ranking by WEF

within a solid macroeconomic environment 2015

Country Risk (bps), EMBI+ Average. Jan 1– Dec 31, 2015

…generates an attractive risk profile

A3

BBB+

BBB+

Baa2

BBB

BBB-

Baa3-

BB+

BB+

Baa2

BBB

BBB

Aa3

BBB+

BBB+

A3

AA-

A+

117

99

56

32

29

23

Brazil

Uruguay

Mexico

Colombia

Chile

Peru

Bett

er

Wo

rst

1

15.1

20.1

44.3

49.8

61.365.2

1 2 3 4 5 6

20.1

6

3.1

3.64.0 4.0

5.7

7.9

Page 7: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

The institutional framework is a key ingredient for Peru´s performance1

• Central Bank is an autonomous and independent entity.

• Monetary policy is conducted under an Inflation

Targeting scheme with FX flexibility.

• Legal reserve requirements and exchange rate swaps

amongst other instruments are available to the Central

Bank.

• Fiscal Responsibility and Transparency Law of 1999

was the base for the new macro-fiscal framework,

strengthened in 2013.

• The new macro-fiscal framework is based on cyclically-

adjusted public finances, following best practices in

resource-rich countries.

• Recently, the first Independent Fiscal Council was

created, strengthening the transparency and the

institutional framework of fiscal management.

• Peruvian legislation gives the same treatment to local

and foreign investors.

• No restriction on profit remittances and dividends.

7

Page 8: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

(0.5%) (0.3%)

4.3%

6.3%6.0%

12.3%

GDP Private Investment

1983-1993 1994-2003 2004-2014

27.2%

20.4% 20.4% 19.9%

13.9% 13.5%

Chile Brazil Mexico Colombia Peru Uruguay

26.2%24.4%

22.1% 21.9% 21.5%20.0%

Peru Colombia Uruguay Mexico Chile Brazil

Sustainable economic growth has been driven by a prolonged capital

accumulation process

Source: BCRP, IMF – WEO (October 2015).

Average Annual % Change

Private investment has driven GDP growth

Total Investment as % of GDP - 2014

…to lead the region in terms of capital accumulation

Total Investment as % of GDP - 1990

Investment in Peru rose from record lows in 1990…

Private investment has been the key driver of GDP

growth.

Peru is currently a regional leader in terms of

capital accumulation: as a % of GDP up from

having one of the lowest levels in the 90’s.

This trend should continue with investment in

large-scale infrastructure and mining projects.

1

8

Page 9: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

Global integration fosters trade and investment

(1) 2015.

(2) Not including Mexico.

Source: BCRP, MEF, MINCETUR.

Peru has implemented Free Trade Agreements (FTA) with the United States, the European Union, People’s Republic of

China, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Canada, Chile, Singapore, Japan, Thailand, Costa Rica, Panama, among others.

There are currently ongoing negotiations with Honduras, El Salvador and Turkey.

Peru already has some form of preferential access to countries that represent 73% of the world GDP (92% of world trade).

Recently, Peru subscribed the Trans-Pacific Partnership (still to be ratified by the Congress of each of the 12 partners).

The Pacific Alliance, which includes Chile, Colombia, and Mexico, is an optimal platform to promote jointly infrastructure

investment, integrate financial and capital markets and strengthen fiscal transparency.

Accession process to the OECD will support continuity of important structural reforms on institutionality, informality,

innovation, among others.

% of Total Exports (1)

Peru: Total Exports(1)

1

9

USD 7.3 billion

North America (2)

(21.9%)

USD 6.2 billion

LAC

(18.8%)

USD 8.1 billion

Europe

(24.6%)

USD 0.3 billion

Africa

(0.9%)

USD 0.1 billion

Oceania

(0.5%)

USD 11.0 billion

Asia

(33.3%)

Page 10: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

The current

equilibrium2

Page 11: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

11

2Despite negative external shocks, the Peruvian economy is accelerating

unlike other economies in the region

GDP 2014-2015

(YoY% Change)

Regional economic growth 1/

GDP (YoY% Change)

1/ 15Q4 are estimates for Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Brazil.

Source: Bloomberg, Central Banks.

2.0

2.5

2.8

4.7

-5.1

2.41.9 2.1

4.6

0.1

3.3

2.12.5

3.0

-3.8-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

Peru Chile Mexico Colombia Brazil

2014 2015

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4

Page 12: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

2Increasing production in a context of low metal prices displays high

competitive advantages of the Peruvian economy on mining

Copper Production and GDP Mining

(YoY % Change)

Source: INEI, MEF estimates, MINEM, Bloomberg, Cochilco, Wood Mackenzie.

Country Mine Owner

ZambiaKatanga

Glencore 80Mopani

Baluba China Nonferrosus Mining 4

U.S.A.Ray Grupo Mexico 10

Tyrone Freeport

45Miami Freeport

Indonesia

Grasberg Freeport

Chile El Abra Freeport 40

CollahuasiAnglo American and

Glencore

Total annual production 179

Percentage of world production 1%

2015:Announced reduction in copper production in

other economies

(Thousands of MT)

0.5

18.7

35.9

47.4

6.9

14.1

18.3

21.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Copper production GDP mining

1.16

1.19

1.27

1.42

1.44

1.50

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.72

1.73

2.00

0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4

Peru

Brazil

Russia

Average

Chile

Australia

Canada

China

Argentina

U.S.

Congo

Zambia

Copper: Cash Cost 2015

19% below worldaverage

(USD/lb)

12

Page 13: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

13

2An expansionary fiscal policy that contributed to smooth out private

consumption (around 60% of GDP)

Peru’s private consumption keeps sustained and

robust unlike the region

Private consumption (Annual % Change)

Overall Balance in Latam

General Government overall balance (% GDP)

Source: Bloomberg, Central Banks, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas e Informática- Encuesta Permanente de Empleo (INEI-EPE), SUNAT.

1/ Latam 5 corresponds to Colombia, Mexico, Brazil Chile and Uruguay.

2/ For 2015 data avalaible until November 2015.

3/ For 2014 is the average of monthly change.

2014 2015

Consumer credit (% change) 2/ 12,0 13.7

Metropolitan Lima Employment (% change) 1.1 1.1

Metropolitan Lima Income (% change) 3/ 6.8 4.8

• Reduction of tax income for workers increaseddisposable income in 0.2% of GDP.

-0.3

-1.5 -1.8

-3.5

-4.6

-6.2

-2.1 -2.2-3.0 -3.3

-4.0

-9.9

Peru Chile Colombia Uruguay Mexico Brazil

2014 2015

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3

Peru Latam5 1/

Page 14: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

14

An investment grade country with positive market perception2

EMBI Index

Index ( 1st January, 2013 = 100) According to the IMF 1/ :

“In Chile, Colombia and Peru (…) the foundations for

growth remain in place, including sound policy

frameworks, credible institutions, healthy financial

markets, and favorable foreign borrowing costs”.

• Sound fiscal management and solid fiscal accounts

has allowed the country recognition in international

markets which materialized in successful issuances

of sovereign bonds with demand more than four

times the amounts offered and reaching historical

lowest coupon rates.

• This includes pre-financing and liability management

operations carried out in October 2014, March 2015,

August 2015 and October 2015 which allowed the

country to improve the public debt profile and

composition in terms of currency, maturity and

interest rates.

Source: Bloomberg, FMI

1/ “Latin America and the Caribbean in 2016: Adjusting to a Harsher Reality” -IMF Direct by Alejandro Werner.

50

150

250

350

450

01/01/13 01/01/14 01/01/15 01/01/16

Peru Chile Colombia Mexico Brazil

15/02/16

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Moody's

S&P

Fitch

Investment Grade

Ba1

Ba3

Baa1

Baa2

Ba2

B1

Outlook

S&P

Fitch

Moody's

Stable

Stable

Stable

Baa3

A3

Sovereign Rating Evolution

Long Term Debt in Foreign Currency

02/15/16

Page 15: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

Economic Outlook3

Page 16: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

The Peruvian economy will keep leading the regional economic growth in

the coming years

Note: The LA6 countries refers to the six Latin American countries that have adopted a formal inflation targeting framework and have relatively more developed domestic capital

markets. The list includes: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay.

Source: BCRP, Estimates and Forecasts MEF, IMF – WEO.

Peru’s GDP GDP Forecasts 2016-2020

Annual % Change Average Annual % Change

3

16

0

1

2

3

4

5

Peru Colombia Mexico Chile Uruguay Brazil

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Page 17: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

Strong macroeconomic fundamentals and a smooth adjustment process to the

“new normal”

2008(Before international crisis)

2015(New international environment)

Source: IMF WEO October 2015, MEF, BCRP, Consensus Forecasts (October 2015).

International Reserves(% of GDP)

Credit Dollarization(% of total credit)

Inflation(%)

3226

6.7 4.4

51 30

Public Debt(% of GDP)

Public External Debt(% of GDP)

26.9 23.6

16.8 11.2

Fiscal Stabilization Fund(% of GDP) 1.6 4.1

3

17

Page 18: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

Peru is in a better position than its peers to weather shocks

Business Environment vs Growth 2015-2016 (1) (Score, Annual % Change)

Peru is in the group of good business environment

and solid growth countries in the region

Public Debt vs Growth 2015-2016 (as % of GDP, Annual % Change)

… and low financing needs

Economic Growth Economic Growth

Pu

blic D

eb

t

Business Environment

(1) Mean of forecasted economic growth for the years 2015 and 2016.

Note: the size of the countries depends on the importance in the region.

Source: IMF, World Bank (Doing Business Database), Consensus Forecasts (January 2015).

3

18

Page 19: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

Peruvian economy will be boosted by 4 drivers3

1. Mining: copper production will reach historical high levels.

2. Infrastructure projects: in construction phase.

3. Household consumption: a fast growing middle class will sustain a

growing demand for goods and services.

4. Macroeconomic policies: will be oriented to strengthen “buffers” for

coping future external shocks and ensuring market’s credibility.

19

Page 20: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

Source: INEI, MEF estimates, MINEM, Company reports.

Mining: Production will reach all-time highs3

(Index 2014=100)

GDP Mining and Copper Production

Toromocho Constancia Cerro Verde-expansion

Las Bambas

(Annual % Change)

Copper Production

20

Main Copper Projects with Ongoing Production

Toromocho January 2014 275 225

Constancia December 2014 120a 115

Cerro Verde-expansion September 2015 272 100

Las Bambas December 2015 275a 200

a/ Company forecasts for 2016.

Projects Start Date

Maximum

Production Capacity

2016 Expected

Production

(Thousands of MT, Copper)

-1,6

15,5

12,4

9,1

0,6

25,824,5

15,6

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2014 2015 2016 2017

GDP mining Copper

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

100

126

157

181189

Page 21: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

PPP Awarded by ProInversion(1)

In the current administration, 30 PPP projects have been awarded, they add up to more than

USD 20 billion.

Moyobamba - Iquitos

Power Transmission Line

USD 589 million

Southern Gas Pipeline

USD 5,794 million(2)

Line 2 of the Metro of

Lima and Callao

USD 6,783 million

Chinchero International

Airport - Cusco

USD 775 million

2014

“Longitudinal de la Sierra”

Highway -Section 2

USD 651 million

Southern Energy Node

USD 826 million

4G Band Nationwide

USD 1,202 million

2013

3

(USD Millions, VAT included)

Infrastructure: Surge of Infrastructure Investments through PPPs

scheme

(1) Updated to 01.31.2016.

(2) The amount of potential investment in the project is assumed.

Source: ProInversion.

21

Aug.06-Jul.11 Aug.11-Jul.12 Aug.12-Dec.13 2014-2015

41 projectsUSD 9,730 million

2 projectsUSD 66 million

15 projectsUSD 6,094 million

13 projectsUSD 14,388 million

Nov.13Dec.13

Page 22: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

(1) Includes public and private investment of infrastructure projects in many sectors (transportation, irrigation, electricity, telecommunication, hydrocarbon transport and sanitation). Talara

Refinery Modernization is considered because is a project of national interest.

(2) Projects initiated in 2015, with main disbursements in the coming years.

Source: ProInversión, Osinergmin, Ositran, APOYO Consultoria, companies, MEF forecast.

Investment in Infrastructure Projects(1)

3

(USD millions)

Infrastructure: Awarded projects will boost public and private

investment

22

• Portfolio is consistent with medium-term fiscal envelope.

Main Infrastructure Projects started in 2015

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Infrastructure Mining

Peruvian South Gas-Pipeline (2)

Lima Metro Line 2 (2)

Modernization Talara Refinery (2)

Moyobamba-Iquitos Transmission line

Planicie-Industriales Transmission line

Friaspata-Mollepata Transmission line

Majes Siguas Irrigation Project - Stage II

Chinchero International Airport – Cusco

General San Martin Port Terminal

Dv. Quilca-La Concordia Section

Expansion of Jorge Chavez Airport

Broadband Installation (4 regions)

Carapongo Substation

Azangaro-Puno Transmission line

Total Investment

Peruvian South Gas-Pipeline 5 229

Lima Metro Line 2 5 346

Modernization Talara refinery 3 801

Chavimochic - Stage III 715

Mantaro-Montalvo transmission line 527

Red Dorsal Nacional -Optic Fiber 261

Longitudinal de la Sierra – Section 2 174

Carhuaquero-Moyobamba transmission line 180

Machupicchu-Tintaya transmission line 160

Project(USD Millions)

Page 23: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

Infrastructure: The Ministry of Transportation has announced 29 large projects1

which add up to more than S/ 6 billion in the coming years

1/ Only projects over S/ 70 millions are considered.

Source: MTC, SNIP, Seace.

Ministry of Transportation and Communication: Projects for more than S/ 70 million investment announced in 2015

(Millions of S/)

Project Investment Announcement Award date

Construction Section 1: Bellavista - Santo Tomas

625 12/31/2015 03/11/2016

Improvement of the Puerto Bermudez -San Alejandro road

356 01/30/2015 10/26/2015

Improvement of the Road Axis N°01 Piura-Guayaquil

239 08/25/2015 03/11/2016

Road Integration Tacna - La Paz Section 1 230 10/30/2015 02/26/2016

Bridge Construction in the Center-South Zone

221 08/24/2015 02/18/2016

Bridge Construction in Cajamarca 194 09/09/2015 03/11/2016

Bridge Construction in Ancash and Junín 191 12/31/2015 03/04/2016

Bridge Construction in the North Zone 171 08/25/2015 03/07/2016

Bridge Construction in Puno 163 09/11/2015 03/07/2016

Bridge Construction in Cusco 128 08/25/2015 02/19/2016

Announced Awarded

3

23

Page 24: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

Household consumption: Consolidation of the middle class expected to

continue

Higher class(A)

Consolidatedmiddle class

(B)

Emergingmiddle class

(C)

Emerging lowerclass(D)

Lower class poor(E)

2004 2014 2021

27% 18% 14%

44% 36% 31%

25% 31% 36%

4% 13% 16%

Households : 4.2 mm Households : 6.0 mm Households : 7.7 mm

A

2% 3%

B C D E

3

% of Households

Urban Peru: Socioeconomic structure

Source: Apoyo Consultoría24

0.4%

Page 25: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

53

84

45

37

17

23

7

6

3

5

4

2

Average Consumption of

Mobile Data per User(thousands of terabytes)

Vehicle Sales (per thousand inhabitants)

Household consumption: Middle class will boost the demand for goods

and services as it happened in other countries in the region

Banking SystemCredits

(% of GDP)

Shopping Centers (per million inhabitants)

202

56

34

20

x10 x2 x4 x2Number of times

Peruvian demand may increase

Note: Updated to the 3rd quarter of 2015 for the average consumption of mobile data per user (Telefonica Movistar in different Countries). For other indicators, information available at

2014.

Source: Telefonica Movistar in different countries, FELABAN, ARAPER, ACARA, ANAC, ACCEP, Acecolombia, TRADE MAP.

3

25

Page 26: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

Macroeconomic policies consistent with the “new normal”

Source: BCRP, MEF.

3

• Strong stock-position (i.e low net public debt and highest NIR to GDP ratio in the region) allow

macroeconomic policies to adjust gradually to the “new normal” without hurting economic growth.

Inflation rate and reference rate

(%)(Index 2009=100)

Peru: Multilateral Real Exchange Rate Index

Dic-15

26

Overall Balance

(% GDP)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

01/09 01/10 01/11 01/12 01/13 01/14 01/15 01/16

Inflation

Reference Rate

Inflation targetband

-1.4

-0.2

2.02.3

0.9

0.3

2.1

3.02.6

2.2

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Page 27: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

0 20 40 60 80

Ave

rag

e F

isca

l Ba

lance

200

9-2

015

Gross Public Debt 2015

Note: *A3 represents average of relevant metrics for countries with an A3 credit rating (Moody’s).

Source: IMF, Moody’s, MEF.

% of GDP

Fiscal Stabilization Fund

% of GDP

% of GDP

3

Change in Gross Public Debt 2015 vs 2009

Average Fiscal Balance 2009-2015 and Gross

Public Debt 2015

% of GDP

Fiscal Policy: Peru has built a sound fiscal position in comparison to its

peers to bridge a transition to a new normal

27

1.4

3.6

4.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2009 2012 2015

2.9x

15.8

12.3

9.1 8.4 8.15.3 4.9 4.8 4.4

1.0

-0.3

-3.6

-15

-5

5

15

25

Co

lom

bia

Ch

ile

Lith

ua

nia

LA

6

Me

xico

La

tvia

Bra

zil

EM

Ma

lays

ia

Uru

gu

ay

Ma

lta

Peru

Ch

ang

e in

Gro

ss P

ublic

De

bt

Emerging Economies Countries with A3 credit rating (Moody's)

increase in gross public debt

decrease in gross public debt

Page 28: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

Fiscal Policy: Public debt management has brought down external and

financial risk exposure

(1) Refers to medium and long term public debt

Source: BCRP, MEF.

% of Total Debt

Public Debt Composition by Type of Debt

Years

Public Debt(1): Average Term to Maturity

3

% of Total Debt

Public Debt(1) Composition by Interest Rate

Gross interest payments

% GDP

0.4

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.8

3.5

6.1

Chile

Indonesia

Peru

Latvia

Lithuania

Mexico

Poland

Colombia

South Africa

Turkey

Iceland

Brazil

28

89.270.5

56.3

10.829.5

43.7

2004 2009 2015

External Internal

48.5

16.6 16.4

48.4

80.5 77.0

3.1 2.9 6.6

2004 2009 2015

variable Fixed Inflation indexed

7.3

11.4

14.7

2004 2009 2015

Page 29: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

Structural reforms and policy measures aimed at boosting potential growth

Source: WEF (2015), The Global Competitiveness Report 2015-2016.

(As Percentage of Total Answers)

WEF 2015: Barriers to Doing Business in Peru

• Axis 1: Human Capital

• Axis 2: Infrastructure

• Axis 3.: National Productive Diversification Plan, Agenda of Competitiveness, “red tape”

+ Social Inclusion (more equitable growth / social cohesion)

0.7

1.0

1.9

2.0

2.5

6.8

6.8

7.4

9.9

11.5

14.1

16.6

18.7

0 5 10 15 20

Others

Poor public health

Insufficient capacity to innovate

Poor work ethic in national labor force

Access to financing

Inadequately educated workforce

Crime and theft

Policy instability

Inadequate supply of infrastructure

Regulations and tax rates

Corruption

Restrictive labor regulations

Inefficient government bureaucracy Axis 1 and 3

Axis 1 and 3

Axis 3

Axis 2

Axis 1

3

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Page 30: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

Risks and buffers4

Page 31: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

ConsiderationPotential

concernRisk Mitigant

China slowdown 4 Lower commodity prices

Lower demand for Peruvian exports

Increase in risk perception

Comparatives advantages in mining

Strong pipeline in mining projects (production phase)

Investment through PPPs will support growth prospects

Low fiscal revenues from mining (1.1% of GDP in 2014)

Ongoing Productive Diversification Plan

Further (and non-

expected)

downgrades to

the Brazilian

Economy

3

“Contagion effect” in Latam region:

Increase in premium risk

Higher financing cost

Additional FX depreciation pressures and capital

outflows

Stronger macroeconomic fundamentals

Low risk perception (EMBI, CDS)

Small size of financial markets (banking, fixed income)

Highest NIR to GDP ratio in The Pacific Alliance (31%

of GDP)

Deterioration in

macro external

accounts2 Widening of current account and trade balance deficits

Increasing tradable production in the following years

(mining)

Headroom for policy intervention

Strong stock position (Liabilities position of bonds and

total external debt 32% of GDP in 2014)

FX volatility 1 Concerns about intervention and continued

“overvaluation”

Potential for drastic correction if outlook worsens

Peru’s RER is in line with fundamentals

Dollarization of banks’ loan portfolio is at historically low

levels

External position better than peers

Peru´s Central Bank has buffers to confront this

scenario.

Fiscal deficit 1 Fiscal impulse shows expansionary stance

Partially financed with capital markets operations

Fiscal space generated in previous years

Low net debt allow a more efficient assets & liabilities

management

Strong commitment with rules based macro-fiscal

framework

Ample space to increase fiscal revenues (20% of GDP)

Peru has important buffers to deal with a challenging international

environment4

Note: Full moon (i.e., 5) represents the strongest factors keeping investors from investing in Peru’s debt; on the other hand, an empty moon (i.e., 0) implies lower expected level of

concern.

Source: JP Morgan, MEF.

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Page 32: Investor Presentation Peru...Investor Presentation Peru February 2016 1 Key Highlights on the Peruvian Economy 1 Background information 3 Economic Outlook 2 2 The current equilibrium

Investor Presentation

Peru

February 2016

32