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Aluminium for the world INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION Q1 2018

INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

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Page 1: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

Aluminium

for the world

INVESTOR RELATIONSPRESENTATION

Q1 2018

Page 2: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

DISCLAIMER

2

This document has been prepared and issued by and is the sole responsibility of Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (the“Company”). The document is being supplied to you solely for your information and for use at the Company’s presentation.No information made available to you in connection with the presentation may be passed on, copied, reproduced, in wholeor in part, or otherwise disseminated, directly or indirectly, to any other person. This document and its contents aredirected only to the intended audience. It is being made on a confidential basis and is furnished to you solely for yourinformation. By accepting this material the recipient confirms that he or she is a relevant person. This document must notbe acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment activity to which this document relatesis available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. If you are not a relevant person youshould not attend the presentation and should immediately return any materials relating to it currently in your possession.Forward-looking statements speak only as at the date of this presentation and Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. expresslydisclaims any obligations or undertaking to release any update of, or revisions to, any forward-looking statements in thispresentation. No statement in this presentation is intended to be a profit forecast. As a result, you are cautioned not toplace any undue reliance on such forward-looking statements. You should not base any behaviour in relation to financialinstruments related to the Company’s securities or any other securities and investments on such information until after it ismade publicly available by the Company or any of their respective advisers. Some of the information is still in draft formand has not been legally verified. The Company, its advisers and each of their respective members, directors, officers andemployees are under no obligation to update or keep current information contained in this presentation, to correct anyinaccuracies which may become apparent, or to publicly announce the result of any revision to the statements madeherein except where they would be required to do so under applicable law, and any opinions expressed in them are subjectto change without notice. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by the Company, its undertakings oraffiliates or directors, officers or any other person as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information oropinions contained in this presentation and no liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of thispresentation or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to suchinformation.

Aluminium

for the world

Page 3: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

3

01IndustryHighlights

CONTENTS

02ALBAHighlights

03Q1 2018Results

04IndustryPerspectivesin 2018

052018ALBA Priorities

Aluminium

for the world

Page 4: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

Aluminium

for the world

01INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS1

1Industry Highlights are based on CRU analysis

Page 5: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

Industry Highlights – Q1 2018

World consumption up by 4% YoY

Asian demand up by 5% YoY supported by Chinese demand (+5% YoY)

MENA demand rose up by 8% YoY mainly driven by major infrastructure spending in KSA (+18% YoY)

North America continues to report solid demand (+3% YoY) supported by auto production

Europe consumption up by 3% YoY due to strong demand in transport (auto body sheet) and construction sectors

Aluminium

for the world

Global Physical Demand to Continue to Grow

5

Page 6: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts

North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart in Q3 2018]

World market in surplus with China (+22 Kt) and in deficit w/o China

(-533 Kt)

Aluminium

for the world

Global Production Growth Almost Flat

6

Industry Highlights – Q1 2018

Page 7: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

LME inventories at ~ 1.3 million mt as of March-end

Q1 2018 Cash-Average was $2,159 /t with LME ranging between $1,997/t on March 29 and $2,226/t on February 19

Physical premiums prices on the rise:

Aluminium

for the world

LME & Premiums

7

Major Japanese Ports (MJP) US Midwest DDP Rotterdam

0

100

200

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

145 144 143 156 168

0

175

350

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

211 203 172 209

306

0

75

150

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

100117

90 94 108

Industry Highlights – Q1 2018

Page 8: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

Aluminium

for the world

02ALBA HIGHLIGHTS

Page 9: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

Driving continuous improvement in Plant Safety with the launch of ‘Safety ABC’ Campaign

Sales volume up by 3.6% YoY (251,637 mt) and production up by 4.3% YoY (259,399 mt)

Alba Value-Added Sales averaged 58% of total shipments in Q1

Line 6 Expansion Project Milestones:

- Line 6 Smelter [overall progress: 49%]

- Power Expansion Project [PS 5 & PDS overall progress: 58% & 82%]

Aluminium

for the world

Operational Highlights & Achievements

9

Alba Highlights – Q1 2018

Page 10: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

Aluminium

for the world

Safety in Focus - Safety Selfie

10

Alba Highlights – Q1 2018

2

6

10

2014 2015 2016 2017 YTDMarch2018

56

3

6

1

5

45

85

2014 2015 2016 2017 YTDMarch2018

5769 64 57

9

Lost Time Injury (LTI) Trend Total Recordable Injuries Trend

Page 11: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

EBITDA up driven by higher LME prices and Favourable Management Performance

Q1: US$126 million up by 9% YoY

Adjusted Net Income up driven by higher EBITDA levels

Q1: US$ 80 million up by 16% YoY

Free-Cash Flow 1 favourable due to higher LME prices

Q1: US$ 141 million up by 1,145% YoY

Alba paid a dividend of US$ 98 million in March 2018

Aluminium

for the world

Financial Key Performance Indicators

11

1 Free Cash Flow excluding Line 6 CAPEX spending

Alba Highlights – Q1 2018

Page 12: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

Aluminium

for the world

Project Titan - Phase III: Improve Cash Cost Structure by US$ 60/MT Q1 2018: Achieved Benefits of US$ 41/ MT

12

4160

Project Titan - US$ per MT

AchievedQ1 2018

Target2018

* Achieved Benefits from Project Titan represent the annual US$ cost per mt improvement once all projects are fully implemented

Alba Highlights – Q1 2018

Page 13: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

Aluminium

for the world

03Q1 2018 Results

Page 14: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

Aluminium

for the world

14

Q1 2018 Results Aluminium Industry: Rally in LME Prices

Sales Bridge Analysis Q1 2018 vs. Q1 2017 Favourable Management Performance Coupled With Higher LME Prices

250

450

650

Metal Sales1Q17

LME Product Mix Pricing Power Volume Metal Sales1Q18

483

596

91

2 317

Q1 2018 vs. Q1 2017 - Metal Sales Bridge (US$M)

Page 15: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

Aluminium

for the world

Higher Sales Volume Denominated by Favourable Shift in Product Mix

15

100

200

300

243 252

8 1 2

Q1 2018 vs. Q1 2017Sales by Product Line Bridge (MT’000)

Premium Above LME Trend US$ Per MT

100

200

1Q17 1Q18

183

199

Sales 1Q17

ValueAdded

Sales 1Q18

LiquidMetal

Commodity

Q1 2018 Results Aluminium Industry: Rally in LME Prices

Page 16: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

Aluminium

for the world

16

Cost Analysis Q1 2018 vs. Q1 2017

200

350

500

Direct Cost1Q17

RM Price RMConsumption

EnergyConsumption

AluminaSales Cost

InventoryChange

PlantSpending

Direct Cost1Q18

390

460

10 18

61

7 2010

Q1 2018 Results Aluminium Industry: Rally in LME Prices

Q1 2018 vs. Q1 2017 - Direct Cost Bridge (US$M)

Page 17: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

Aluminium

for the world

Adjusted EBITDA Bridge Gap Analysis - Q1 2018 vs. Q1 2017 Adjusted EBITDA Margin at 20.9%

17

Q1 2018 vs. Q1 2017- EBITDA Bridge (US$M)

0

125

250

EBITDA 1Q17(Adjusted)

Metal Sales Other Sales Direct Cost SellingExpenses

EBITDA 1Q18(Adjusted)

115 126

112

28

70

3EBITDA 22.3%EBITDA 20.9%

Q1 2018 Results Aluminium Industry: Rally in LME Prices

Page 18: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

Aluminium

for the world

Cash Flow Bridge - Q4 2017 to Q1 2018: Maintain Good Cash Position

18

Q4 2017 to Q1 2018 Cash-Flow Bridge (US$M) Free Cash-Flow (US$M)

0

75

150

1Q 2017 1Q 2018

11

141

Operating & Investing Cash Flow

(Excluding Line 6 CAPEX)

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

CashBalance

4Q17

CFfrom

Operations

WCChanges

CAPEXSpent

Line 6CAPEX

Loan Paymentto

Shareholders

CashBalance

1Q18

206

114

132

20

256

11

391 98

Q1 2018 Results Aluminium Industry: Rally in LME Prices

Drawdown

Page 19: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

Aluminium

for the world

19

Favourable Management Performance

Financial Summary Q1 2018 Q1 2017

Average Cash LME (US$/MT) 2,159 1,850

Sales (US$M) 600 517

EBITDA (US$M) 126 115

EBITDA% 20.9% 22.3%

Net Income/ (Loss) (US$M) 90 68

Q1 2018 Results Aluminium Industry: Rally in LME Prices

Page 20: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

Aluminium

for the world

04INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVES IN 2018

Page 21: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

Industry Perspectives in 2018

Aluminium

for the world

Global Physical Demand to Remain Healthy

21

Key factors to be observed:

LME volatility to continue on the back of Rusal Sanctions, US tariffs and Chinese output

World market to face supply shortages thanks to US sanctions on Russia and Hydro’s production cuts in Brazil (surge in premiums)

North America demand is set to increase supported by residential construction market and automotive production

MENA output to accelerate on the back of infrastructure spending

LME price to range between $2,150/t - $2,250/t

Page 22: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

Industry Perspectives in 2018

Aluminium

for the world

Raw Materials Price Trends

22

Alumina spot prices to increase on the back of Alunorte production cuts and Rusal sanctions

Green Petroleum Coke (GPC) prices will continue to be high due to supply constraints

Liquid Pitch and Aluminium Fluoride prices are set to be at higher-range due to continued environmental regulations in China

Page 23: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

Aluminium

for the world

052018 ALBA PRIORITIES

Page 24: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

2018 Alba Priorities

Aluminium

for the world

Sustainable Improvement & Preparation for Future Growth

24

Focus on Safety Selfie Initiative

Deliver on Project Titan - Phase III [2018: 1 Million MT & US$ 60/t]

Leverage strong physical demand on Value-Added Sales

Focus on future upstream opportunities

Line 6 on Schedule

Close final tranche of ECA-covered facility

Award remaining packages by Q2 2018

Page 25: INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION...Chinese supply dips by ~ 1.5% YoY due to slower ramp-ups and winter closure restarts North America supply dropped by 5% YoY [idle capacity to restart

25

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Aluminium

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