Presented at the:

Second Symposium

Innovations in Freight Demand Modeling & Data Improvement

SHRP2 Strategic Highway Research Program

Washington, D.C. USA

October 21-22, 2013

Iowa DOT with Parsons Brinckerhoff

Rail Freight Commodity Models:

A First Generation Effort in Iowa

Outline

2

Evolution of Iowa DOT Activities Statewide Traffic Model

Interest in Truck & Rail Commodity Models

Rail Commodity Architecture

Confidential Rail Waybill in Iowa

FAF3 to County Processing of Commodity Flows

Rail Freight Modeling

Applicability to States, MPOs and Decision Makers

Evolution of

Iowa DOT

Activities

3

History of Statewide Modeling in Iowa

4

First Generation Traffic Model

Developed 2005-2007

Focused on Auto and Truck Traffic

Applied for Planning, Engineering & Safety Studies

Resource for MPO and RPA (Regional Planning Affiliation) Modeling (the DOT serves nine MPOs)

Known as iTRAM

Second Generation Statewide Model

In progress 2012-2014

Provides an update to the 2007 traffic model

Begins an emphasis on freight and commodity movements

5

Iowa’s Central Location

6

iTRAM Traffic Analysis Zones (1,951)

Interest in Commodity Flow Issues

7

Need for Commodity Flow Models

Estimate Freight Rail Capacity Needs

Serve Passenger Rail Models

Use in Business Decision Making

New Warehouse, Distribution Center Location

Short Line Railroad Planning

Rail Ownership Changes

Study Partners

Iowa DOT: Offices of Systems Planning and Rail

Federal Railroad Administration

Iowa Corn Ton-Miles by Rail LUPA/2012

One Suggested Reporting Metric of iTRAM Freight Commodity Model

iTRAM

Freight

Commodity

Architecture

9

Sequencing of Activities in iTRAM

Update

10

Prepare Comprehensive Model Architecture

Traffic Model Update

Truck Model Update

Rail Commodity Models

Interface between the “Moving Parts”

Focus of this Presentation is Rail Commodity

Data Inventory & Processing

Model Development Issues

11

Freight Flows by Mode

12

* - unit of measure is thousand tons

** - does not include through trips

Source: FHWA FAF3.4, Iowa, Table KT_BYMODE, Year 2011

Freight Mode

Within From To Total of within, to

and from Iowa

Tonnage % of

Total Tonnage

% of

Total Tonnage

% of

Total Tonnage

% of

Total

Truck 252,196 97% 58,986 62% 44,231 47% 355,413 79%

Rail 6,389 2% 20,318 21% 37,108 40% 63,815 14%

Water 0 0% 5,888 6% 868 1% 6,756 2%

Air

869 0% 9,630 10% 11,341 12% 21,840 5% Multiple modes & mail

Pipeline

Other and unknown

Total 259,454 100% 94,822 100% 93,548 100% 447,824 100%

Architecture Highlights (Rail)

13

Rail Models produce both Rail and Truck Demand

Network Rail Assignment Deliverables Include:

Freight Rail Assignment

Truck Trip Tables (to and from rail heads)

Approach must be Iowa-centric

Investigate observed rail commodity flows

Address agriculture goods movements, including a variety of

exports and import of fertilizer and other.

Develop future flows of rail commodities

Confidential

Rail

Waybill

14

STB Confidential Rail Waybill

15

Review of the Surface Transportation Board (STB) Carload Waybill Sample Complete file (900 character) compared to the public use version

(247 character) Restricted distribution but used by many states for state

transportation plans

Tabulations by origin-destination and Surface Transportation Commodity Code (STCC) From/To Iowa Through Movements

Rail Network Assignment of Waybill Data Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) rail network County to county flows

Quick Summary of Waybill

16

Coverage: All U.S. railroads that terminate more than 4,500 revenue carloads must participate

Sample size based on number of carloads on waybill.

In Iowa BNSF (48%) and UP (40%) dominate

Contents of Waybill Paperwork (waybill) for moving the shipment

Commodity type and weight (Surface Transportation Commodity Code)

Number and type of freight cars for shipment

Type of move

Routing information Origin and termination freight stations

Railroads used and interchange locations between railroads

Origin-Destination Standard Point Location Code (SPLC)

State and county (FIPS)

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) areas

Revenue

Expansion factor

STB Class I Railroads plus Iowa

Interstate RR

17

National Class I Rail Network

18

Mapping the Waybill Sample

19

Develop national coordinate system GIS projection Miles/degree latitude-longitude at Des Moines

Create assignment network from ORNL rail network ESRI shapefile to assignable network Replace lat-long with national coordinates Impedance based on ORNL main line class variable

Move waybill into workable database format Origin/termination county, Canadian province or Mexican state County centroid coordinates

Locate nearest rail nodes to county centroids for selected waybill records

Assign selected waybill records onto network

Iowa Waybill Total Annual Tons

20

Iowa Rail Exports: Food Products

21

Trailer/Container on Flatcar to Iowa

Interchanges

22

Iowa Rail Exports: Farm Products

23

Next Steps

24

Detailed rail network inside Iowa Locate points where commodities are loaded onto network (originating

and trans-shipment)

Add link and node details (ownership, track rights, tracks, travel times, signaling, interline junctions)

Validate against waybill routings

Clean up national network and national zone system Eliminate extraneous links

Compatible to detailed Iowa link and node variables

Disaggregate to Iowa TAZs Iowa employment

2007 Economic Census

Future flows

FAF3

Processing

to

Counties

25

FAF3 Disaggregation to Counties

26

Match counties to FAF3 regions

3143 counties including Hawaii and Alaska

Renumbered counties and FAF3 regions

Relate types of employment to the origins and destinations of

SCTG category commodity flows

Develop county as share of FAF3 region allocation factors

Balance FAF3 regional flows to counties

FAFFAF

coco

sctgwsctgw

sctgwsctgw

2211

2211

Base County Employment Data

27

Bureau of Economic Analysis

Largely developed from state unemployment insurance reporting

(form ES-202)

Employment not covered by unemployment insurance added by BEA

Reported by two digit North American Industry Classification System

(NAICS) at county level

County Business Patterns

Derived from census business establishment surveys and federal

administration records

Subject to data suppression when individual firms can be identified

Reported by six digit NAICS but data suppression increases with

added detail

Commodity-Employment Regressions:

Fuel Oils (SCTG 18)

28

NAICS Definition Normalized Weight

CBP_324 Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing 0.79

CBP_4247 Petroleum and Petroleum Products Merchant

Wholesalers 0.21

Three Sets of Commodity Flow Tables

29

Annual county to county domestic flows by mode and commodity

Need modes other than rail for mode choice analyses

Four modes – truck, rail, water, and multimodal – and forty-three commodities

165 commodity flow tables produced of 172 possible

Annual foreign region to county import flows by mode and commodity

Annual county to foreign region export flows by mode and commodity

3143 counties

3143 counties

Rail

Freight

Modeling

30

Network Coding Elements

31

Model Components: Base Year and

Future Commodity Flow Tables

32

Annual base year rail commodity flow tables built from Iowa Carload Waybill Sample

Two digit STCC commodity code (max of 38 commodities)

Compare against FAF3

BEA economic areas, counties, points of entry, major generators within Iowa with rail access

Four sets of tables defined by movement

Base and future year commodity flow tables (all modes) built from FAF3

Base: reallocated from FAF3 zones to BEA areas/counties, etc.

Future: IPF base tables using FAF3 growth estimates

Model Components: Commodity Mode

Shares

33

Estimation data set by commodity

Observed flows

Carload Waybill Sample

FAF3 commodity flow tables

Cost to ship commodity by mode per ton per mile

Network skimmed and scaled distances

Application within state

New commodity source or consumption location

Added or removed intermodal facility

Iowa Processed Food (SCTG 7):

Rail Domestic Shipment Origins

34

Iowa Processed Food (SCTG 7):

Rail Domestic Shipment Destinations

35

Iowa Processed Food (SCTG 7):

Truck Domestic Shipment Destinations

36

Iowa Animal Feed (SCTG 4):

Rail Domestic Shipment Destinations

37

Iowa Alcoholic Beverages (SCTG 8):

Rail Domestic Shipment Destinations

38

Cereal Grain (SCTG 2) Shipments from

O’Brien County (Tons 1000s)

39

Domestic

Mode Iowa

Balance

US Canada Mexico Americas Europe Africa

SW and

Central

Asia

Eastern

Asia

SE Asia

and

Oceania

Truck 3903.8 515.5 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Rail 94.0 127.0 5.8 65.8 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0

Water 0.0 134.1 0.0 2.9 1.5 0.6 4.6 0.4 9.9 0.0

Multi-

Modal 7.6 96.8 0.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.0 6.6 0.1

O’Brien County Iowa Grain Flows and

Ethyl Alcohol Manufacturing Employees

40

O’Brien County Iowa Grain Flows and

Farm Product Wholesalers Employees

41

Rail Domestic Coal Tons

42

Rail Domestic All Commodity Tons

43

Rail Domestic All Commodity Tons

44

Screen Line Locations

45

Screen Line 1 Screen Line 2

Screen Line 3

Total Commodity (Tons 1000s) Screen

Line Crossings

46

Screen Line 1 Screen Line 2 Screen Line 3

FAF3 CWS FAF3 CWS FAF3 CWS

East to West 9,834 12,251 8,791 14,735

West to East 145,768 132,670 149,177 128,946

North to South 23,440 38,103

South to North 18,518 13,291

Major Tasks Remaining

47

Repeat FAF3 disaggregation for 2040

Finalize commodity tables

Rail network for assignment Clean up ORNL network outside Iowa Add waterways as pseudo rail mode Incorporate detailed Iowa rail network Rail access points inside detailed zones

Mode choice model development and implementation Highway versus rail/highway versus rail Rail versus water

Assignment procedure and export of truck portion of truck-rail flows

Package final product in selected software

Applicability

to States,

MPOs

and

Decision Makers

48

Uses of the Iowa Rail Commodity

Model

49

Summary statistics: Rail ton-miles by commodity within

Iowa, base and future.

What if Analysis:

Test placement of a new truck-rail intermodal or mega-

warehouse/distribution center.

Test the viability of a new short line railroad.

Rail ownership changes.

Transferability

50

May not be readily transferable to smaller scale geographies such as MPOs or corridors. Scale of MPO may preclude accuracy since the disaggregation

process from county to TAZ depends on local employment or land use data.

At state or regional scales, the iTRAM rail freight commodity concept is expected to be transferable

Local knowledge is required in the adapting process (CWS)

While very much a “work in progress”, the iTRAM rail freight model is expected to advance the practice of freight modeling nationwide.

Contact Information

51

Ron Eash

Parsons Brinckerhoff

230 West Monroe Street Suite 900

Chicago IL 60606

eashrw@pbworld.com