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IPCA Laboratories (IPCA in, Buy) - US FDA Scare

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Page 1: IPCA Laboratories (IPCA in, Buy) - US FDA Scare

Rating Remains BuyTarget price Reduced from 988 INR 810

Closing price 24 July 2014 INR 727

Potential upside +11.4%

Anchor themesIPCA is a play on India's domestic pharma market, Africa's malaria market and the US generics market. Strong execution and low base effect bode well for its growth prospects.

Nomura vs consensusOur FY15F PAT is ~21% below consensus as we factor in the affect of suspension of API shipments from the Ratlam facility to the US.

Research analysts

India Pharmaceuticals

Saion Mukherjee - NFASL [email protected] +91 22 4037 4184

Lalit Kumar - NFASL [email protected] +91 22 4037 4511

Key company data: See page 2 for company data and detailed price/index chart

IPCA Laboratories IPCA.NS IPCA IN

EQUITY: HEALTH CARE & PHARMACEUTICALS

US FDA scare

Regulatory concerns present near-term challenges; accumulate on weakness Suspension of API supplies presents significant near-term challenges IPCA has voluntarily suspended shipments of API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) from its manufacturing facility in Ratlam (MP, India) to the US market. The step follows “Form 483” observations raised after a recent FDA inspection. The observations encompass issues of data integrity, staff training, data keeping and lack of sufficient power back-up. In our view, the issue concerning data integrity is the most serious. The decision to suspend shipments of API products is likely to affect IPCA’s formulation and API sales to the US; as well as API supplies to third parties (9.3% of FY14 sales). We think growth and EBITDA margins will be significantly hurt in the near term due to loss of sales, high remediation costs and unabsorbed overheads.

As base case we assume resolution in FY15 Excluding the issue concerning data integrity, we believe the rest of the inspection observations are addressable in the near term. Furthermore, IPCA has already undertaken steps to improve automation and reduce manual intervention to address data integrity. We factor in gradual recovery in the US business in FY16F.

Impact on other players We expect a negative impact on Ranbaxy (US sales impact of ~USD 50mn annualised), which is the marketing partner for most of the products. In certain products, IPCA supports more than 50% of US volumes (own formulation + API supplies), which may result in a shortage situation.

Retain Buy; TP cut to INR810 (from INR988) We reduce FY15/16/17F EPS by 21%/20%/12%. We cut our TP to INR810 based on 17x (unchanged) 1-year forward EPS of INR47.6. Concerns on regulatory actions are likely be a near-term overhang on the stock, which we believe is an opportunity to accumulate from a 12-month perspective.

Year-end 31 Mar FY14 FY15F FY16F FY17F

Currency (INR) Actual Old New Old New Old New

Revenue (mn) 32,818 38,526 35,354 44,672 40,639 51,338 48,528

Reported net profit (mn) 4,785 6,113 4,840 7,106 5,652 8,016 7,076

Normalised net profit (mn) 5,508 6,113 4,840 7,106 5,652 8,016 7,076

FD normalised EPS 43.64 48.44 38.35 56.31 44.79 63.52 56.07

FD norm. EPS growth (%) 42.4 11.0 -12.1 16.3 16.8 12.8 25.2

FD normalised P/E (x) 16.7 N/A 19.0 N/A 16.2 N/A 13.0

EV/EBITDA (x) 12.0 N/A 12.6 N/A 10.8 N/A 8.7

Price/book (x) 4.7 N/A 3.9 N/A 3.2 N/A 2.7

Dividend yield (%) 0.8 N/A 0.9 N/A 1.1 N/A 1.4

ROE (%) 27.2 27.6 22.4 25.8 21.8 23.7 22.7

Net debt/equity (%) 26.9 21.7 25.2 17.4 24.0 11.9 20.8

Source: Company data, Nomura estimates

Global Markets Research 25 July 2014

See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-US analysts.

Page 2: IPCA Laboratories (IPCA in, Buy) - US FDA Scare

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Key data on IPCA Laboratories Relative performance chart

Source: Thomson Reuters, Nomura research

Notes:

Performance (%) 1M 3M 12MAbsolute (INR) -12.2 -11.3 15.4 M cap (USDmn) 1,526.4Absolute (USD) -12.2 -9.9 13.5 Free float (%) 0.7Rel to MSCI India -12.7 -22.1 -7.6 3-mth ADT (USDmn) 2.3 Income statement (INRmn) Year-end 31 Mar FY13 FY14 FY15F FY16F FY17FRevenue 28,131 32,818 35,354 40,639 48,528Cost of goods sold -10,966 -11,366 -12,437 -14,407 -17,305Gross profit 17,165 21,452 22,917 26,232 31,223SG&A -7,882 -9,398 -10,728 -12,078 -14,171Employee share expense -3,918 -4,980 -5,727 -6,586 -7,574Operating profit 5,365 7,074 6,462 7,568 9,478EBITDA 6,232 8,106 7,747 9,152 11,361Depreciation -867 -1,031 -1,285 -1,584 -1,883Amortisation

EBIT 5,365 7,074 6,462 7,568 9,478Net interest expense -334 -269 -275 -304 -328Associates & JCEs -8 3 0 0 0Other income 143 223 223 223 223Earnings before tax 5,166 7,032 6,410 7,486 9,372Income tax -1,299 -1,524 -1,570 -1,834 -2,296Net profit after tax 3,867 5,508 4,840 5,652 7,076Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0Other items

Preferred dividends

Normalised NPAT 3,867 5,508 4,840 5,652 7,076Extraordinary items -631 -722 0 0 0Reported NPAT 3,236 4,785 4,840 5,652 7,076Dividends -589 -738 -849 -992 -1,242Transfer to reserves 2,647 4,047 3,990 4,660 5,834Valuations and ratios

Reported P/E (x) 28.3 19.2 19.0 16.2 13.0Normalised P/E (x) 23.7 16.7 19.0 16.2 13.0FD normalised P/E (x) 23.7 16.7 19.0 16.2 13.0Dividend yield (%) 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4Price/cashflow (x) 26.6 17.2 17.3 14.9 13.3Price/book (x) 5.9 4.7 3.9 3.2 2.7EV/EBITDA (x) 15.6 12.0 12.6 10.8 8.7EV/EBIT (x) 18.2 13.7 15.1 13.0 10.4Gross margin (%) 61.0 65.4 64.8 64.5 64.3EBITDA margin (%) 22.2 24.7 21.9 22.5 23.4EBIT margin (%) 19.1 21.6 18.3 18.6 19.5Net margin (%) 11.5 14.6 13.7 13.9 14.6Effective tax rate (%) 25.2 21.7 24.5 24.5 24.5Dividend payout (%) 18.2 15.4 17.5 17.5 17.5ROE (%) 23.0 27.2 22.4 21.8 22.7ROA (pretax %) 21.6 24.5 19.2 19.5 21.2Growth (%)

Revenue 19.3 16.7 7.7 14.9 19.4EBITDA 21.4 30.1 -4.4 18.1 24.1Normalised EPS 17.2 42.4 -12.1 16.8 25.2Normalised FDEPS 17.2 42.4 -12.1 16.8 25.2Source: Company data, Nomura estimates

Cashflow statement (INRmn) Year-end 31 Mar FY13 FY14 FY15F FY16F FY17FEBITDA 6,232 8,106 7,747 9,152 11,361Change in working capital -1,403 -1,082 -965 -2,061 -3,054Other operating cashflow -1,385 -1,678 -1,482 -945 -1,407Cashflow from operations 3,445 5,346 5,301 6,146 6,900Capital expenditure -2,993 -3,924 -5,000 -5,000 -5,000Free cashflow 452 1,422 301 1,146 1,900Reduction in investments 264 31 0 0 0Net acquisitions 0 0 0 0 0Dec in other LT assets 16 11 0 0 0Inc in other LT liabilities Adjustments 91 69 134 134 134CF after investing acts 822 1,533 435 1,280 2,034Cash dividends -468 -661 -849 -992 -1,242Equity issue 3 0 0 0 0Debt issue 442 -282 560 0 -500Convertible debt issue Others -339 -409 -275 -304 -328CF from financial acts -361 -1,352 -564 -1,296 -2,070Net cashflow 461 181 -129 -17 -36Beginning cash 122 582 763 634 617Ending cash 582 763 634 617 581Ending net debt 5,588 5,263 5,952 6,769 7,104 Balance sheet (INRmn) As at 31 Mar FY13 FY14 FY15F FY16F FY17FCash & equivalents 582 763 634 617 581Marketable securities Accounts receivable 4,178 4,495 4,852 5,594 6,702Inventories 7,410 8,476 9,148 10,548 12,638Other current assets 2,374 3,093 3,093 3,093 3,093Total current assets 14,545 16,827 17,725 19,851 23,014LT investments 90 92 92 92 92Fixed assets 12,098 14,841 18,556 21,971 25,088Goodwill 236 344 344 344 344Other intangible assets Other LT assets Total assets 26,970 32,103 36,717 42,259 48,538Short-term debt 2,508 3,086 3,086 3,886 4,686Accounts payable 2,684 3,413 3,413 3,413 3,414Other current liabilities 1,145 1,434 1,498 1,580 1,723Total current liabilities 6,337 7,933 7,997 8,878 9,822Long-term debt 3,662 2,940 3,500 3,500 3,000Convertible debt Other LT liabilities 1,433 1,633 1,633 1,633 1,634Total liabilities 11,432 12,506 13,130 14,012 14,457Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0Preferred stock Common stock 252 252 252 252 252Retained earnings 15,285 19,344 23,335 27,995 33,829Proposed dividends Other equity and reserves Total shareholders' equity 15,538 19,597 23,587 28,247 34,082Total equity & liabilities 26,970 32,103 36,717 42,259 48,538

Liquidity (x)Current ratio 2.30 2.12 2.22 2.24 2.34Interest cover 16.1 26.3 23.5 24.9 28.9LeverageNet debt/EBITDA (x) 0.90 0.65 0.77 0.74 0.63Net debt/equity (%) 36.0 26.9 25.2 24.0 20.8

Per shareReported EPS (INR) 25.65 37.92 38.35 44.79 56.07Norm EPS (INR) 30.65 43.64 38.35 44.79 56.07FD norm EPS (INR) 30.64 43.64 38.35 44.79 56.07BVPS (INR) 123.16 155.29 186.91 223.83 270.07DPS (INR) 4.66 5.85 6.73 7.86 9.84Activity (days)Days receivable 49.8 48.2 48.2 47.0 46.2Days inventory 234.8 255.1 258.6 250.2 244.5Days payable 84.1 97.9 100.2 86.7 72.0Cash cycle 200.5 205.4 206.7 210.5 218.8Source: Company data, Nomura estimates

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IPCA voluntarily suspends API supplies from Ratlam API facility

IPCA has voluntarily suspended shipments of API from its manufacturing facility situated at Ratlam (MP, India) to the US market. The company received Form 483 observations from the US FDA following an inspection carried out by the FDA over 14-18 July 2014. The step was in response to FDA observations. As per management, the FDA raised six observations which encompass issues of data integrity, training of staff, data keeping and lack of sufficient power back-up. Some of the data shared by management follows:

• Data Integrity – Mismatch between data from HPLC/GC and recorded data.

• Re-processing of batch – As per the US FDA, pharma companies are required to maintain data for a batch for 6 years. The company has destroyed data for a batch after 6 years which was later re-processed. As per the USFDA, data for the reprocessed batch need to be maintained till the expiry of the final batch.

• Employee training - an employee being in the organization for more than 100 days but not having undergone training.

• Lack of sufficient power back-up – this has led to frequent shut downs.

In our view the most critical observation was related to data integrity. Management believes voluntary suspension of operations could lead to early rectification. The time to resolution could have been longer had the FDA issued a warning letter or an import alert.

What’s next? Management looks for resolution in 4-6 months

According to management, IPCA has engaged with an external consultant. A detailed plan is likely to be worked out over the next few weeks. The company expects to implement changes/rectification over the next two months. Management will also participate in a dialogue with the FDA and if required, will await an FDA inspection before commencement of production. In management’s assessment, the facility should be able to start production in the next 4-6 months. IPCA is enhancing automation in lab tests across sites to reduce human intervention. Steps for increasing automation have commenced from February 2013, as per management. The high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) automation is completed and gross chromatography (GC) automation is currently in progress. As per management this should address the issues surrounding data integrity.

Impact on IPCA and the market

As a result of the suspension of production, the following components of IPCA sales will be impacted:

a) Formulation sales to the US. Most of the formulation procures API from the Ratlam facility. As per management, US formulation sales linked to Ratlam were INR 2040mn in FY14 (6.4% of FY14 sales).

b) Direct API supplies to formulators in the US. This segment recorded sales of INR 570m in FY14 (1.8% of FY14 sales), as per management.

c) Indirect API supplies to customers which are finally consumed in manufacturing of finished dosage for the US market. This accounted for INR350mn in sales in FY14 (1.1% of FY14 sales).

Hence, cumulatively 9.3% of FY14 sales are impacted.

In Fig 1 we present product-wise market share and key competitors. Actual impact in the market may be much more than implied by IPCA’s market share. As per management, IPCA is a key supplier of APIs for atenolol, hydrochlorothiazide, and hydroxychloroquine. Due to suspension of API, product market share in excess of 50% will be affected in these products, as per management. This could lead to some shortage in the marketplace. Competition with its own API source can potentially benefit to an extent.

Further, IPCA sells most of its formulation through Ranbaxy. Ranbaxy’s sales to the extent of USD50m (annualised) may be impacted, in our view.

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Fig. 1: Competitive landscape for IPCA’s product Unichem, Aurobindo, Zydus, Sun may benefit to a small extent

Source: IMS, Nomura Research

Financial impact: Change in estimates

We factor in the impact of discontinuation of existing formulation and API supplies to the US market. We also assume delay in new launches (pushed back to FY16). As a base case we factor in resolution of the issues in FY15F and a gradual ramp up in sales from FY16F. We believe the lost sales will only be partially recouped as IPCA will lose some share to competition. As a result, our sales, EBITDA and earnings estimates are revised downwards (Fig 2).

Fig. 2: Sales mix The decline In US business results in decline of generic business in FY15F

Source: Company, Nomura estimates

Product

Market size as per IMS (USD m, MAT Jun'14)

IPCA market share (Jun'14)

Key competitors with market share (Jun'14)

No of Active DMFs

Competitors with Active DMF and hence can benefit from IPCA's exit

Allopurinol 35 4%Vintage (30%), Mylan (41%); Northstar/Piramal (19%); Actavis (6%) 9 Mylan

Atenolol 38 21% Mylan (38%); Sandoz (15%);Teva (8%) 12 Mylan

Chloroquine 2 11% Natco (68%); Hikma (19%); Impax (2%) 1 None

Furosemide 33 29%Vintage (27%); Sandoz (19%); Teva (13%); Roxane (8%); Mylan (4%) 8 Teva

Hydrochlorothiazide- Caps 30 14%Mylan (37%); Watson (16%); Jubilant (16%); Vintage (14%); Unichem (1%) 13 Unichem

Hydrochlorothiazide- Tabs 30 12%

Teva (28%); Unichem (17%); Intas (16%); Vintage (11%); Actavis (4%); Aurobindo (1%) 13

Unichem, Teva, Aurobindo

Metoclopramide 13 0%Teva (50%); Actavis (33%); Northstar/Piramal (17%) 3 None

Metoprolol Tartarate 68 18%Mylan (43%); Sun (21%); Teva (8%); Aurobindo (8%) 13 Teva, Aurobindo, Sun

Propranolol 18 29%

Teva (34%); Actavis (21%); Northstar/Piramal (7%); Vintage (6%); Mylan (3%) 4 None

Hydroxychloroquine 46 85% Mylan (10%); Zydus (1%); Sandoz (1%) 10 Zydus

Revenue Mix Year ended 31 Mar (INR mn) FY12 FY13 FY14F FY15F FY16F FY17FDomestic formulations 7,534 8,781 9,694 11,342 13,157 15,131 Domestic API 1,439 1,446 1,645 1,728 1,814 1,905 Export formulations 9,961 11,942 14,476 15,266 17,840 22,750

Branded 2,200 2,882 3,516 4,395 5,384 6,461 Generics 4,765 5,144 6,590 5,799 7,251 10,420 Institutional 2,996 3,916 4,370 5,071 5,206 5,869

Export API 4,058 5,219 6,002 5,992 6,771 7,651 Subsidiary sales 340 395 177 203 234 269 Total gross sales 23,332 27,783 31,994 34,530 39,815 47,705 % grow th 20.4% 19.1% 16.3% 8.0% 15.3% 19.8%

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Fig. 3: Change in estimates

Source: Nomura estimates

Valuation and target price

As a base case we assume that IPCA will be able to address the issues raised by the FDA. We believe resolution will lead to a gradual recovery in FY16F. Consequently, we hesitate to reduce our estimated valuation multiple on near-term suppressed earnings. We now forecast FY16F and FY17F earnings growth of 17% and 25%, respectively. We retain our view that the fair value range for the stock is 15-20x. We continue to value IPCA at 17x one-year forward EPS. We reset our TP to INR810 (from INR988) based on 17x June 2016F EPS of INR47.6.

Where can the stock fall in the near term? Though we have a constructive view over a 12-month period, in the near term (4-6 months), concerns regarding regulatory actions are likely to be an overhang on the stock. In a worst-case scenario, in the near term, we estimate that the stock can trade at 15x (lower end of the fair value range) on one-year forward estimates, which implies a price of INR600/sh. We advise investors to be accumulate the shares in any such weakness, from a one-year perspective. Fig. 4: IPCA one year forward P/E trading multiple

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Nomura estimates

FY15F FY16F FY17F FY15F FY16F FY17F FY15F FY16F FY17F

Sales 34530 39815 47705 37703 43849 50515 ‐8% ‐9% ‐6%

EBITDA 7747 9152 11361 9408 11032 12521 ‐18% ‐17% ‐9%

Net profit 4840 5652 7076 6113 7106 8016 ‐21% ‐20% ‐12%

Capex 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 0% 0% 0%

Tax Rate 24.5% 24.5% 24.5% 24.5% 24.5% 24.5%

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Appendix A-1

Analyst Certification

We, Saion Mukherjee and Lalit Kumar, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this Research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this Research report, (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Research report and (3) no part of our compensation is tied to any specific investment banking transactions performed by Nomura Securities International, Inc., Nomura International plc or any other Nomura Group company.

Issuer Specific Regulatory Disclosures The term "Nomura Group" used herein refers to Nomura Holdings, Inc. or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries, and may refer to one or more Nomura Group companies.

Materially mentioned issuers Issuer Ticker Price Price date Stock rating Sector rating Disclosures IPCA Laboratories IPCA IN INR 727 24-Jul-2014 Buy N/A

IPCA Laboratories (IPCA IN) INR 727 (24-Jul-2014) Rating and target price chart (three year history)

Buy (Sector rating: N/A)

Date Rating Target price Closing price 16-Jun-14 988.00 853.85 02-Jun-14 954.00 788.95 29-Jan-14 957.00 813.85 26-Oct-13 886.00 689.80 06-Aug-13 Buy 656.40 06-Aug-13 847.00 656.40

For explanation of ratings refer to the stock rating keys located after chart(s)

Valuation Methodology We value IPCA at 17.0x one-year forward (June 2016) EPS of INR47.6, which gives us our target price of INR 810/share. The benchmark index for this stock is MSCI India. Risks that may impede the achievement of the target price • Slower-than-anticipated growth in the US is a key risk. The company has “me too” filings in the US (other than 505 (b) 2 filings) and relies on cost competitiveness to ramp up / gain market share once the capacity constraints are eased. • Higher-than-expected level of competition in the malaria market. • Anti-malarial sales in India are largely seasonal.

Important Disclosures Online availability of research and conflict-of-interest disclosures Nomura research is available on www.nomuranow.com/research, Bloomberg, Capital IQ, Factset, MarkitHub, Reuters and ThomsonOne. Important disclosures may be read at http://go.nomuranow.com/research/globalresearchportal/pages/disclosures/disclosures.aspx or requested from Nomura Securities International, Inc., on 1-877-865-5752. If you have any difficulties with the website, please email [email protected] for help. The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues, a portion of which is generated by Investment Banking activities. Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed at the front of this report are not registered/qualified as research analysts under FINRA/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons of NSI, and may not be subject to

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FINRA Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Nomura Global Financial Products Inc. (“NGFP”) Nomura Derivative Products Inc. (“NDPI”) and Nomura International plc. (“NIplc”) are registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission and the National Futures Association (NFA) as swap dealers. NGFP, NDPI, and NIplc are generally engaged in the trading of swaps and other derivative products, any of which may be the subject of this report. Any authors named in this report are research analysts unless otherwise indicated. Industry Specialists identified in some Nomura International plc research reports are employees within the Firm who are responsible for the sales and trading effort in the sector for which they have coverage. Industry Specialists do not contribute in any manner to the content of research reports in which their names appear. Distribution of ratings (Global) The distribution of all ratings published by Nomura Global Equity Research is as follows: 47% have been assigned a Buy rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Buy rating; 41% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 43% have been assigned a Neutral rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 54% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 10% have been assigned a Reduce rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Sell rating; 24% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. As at 30 June 2014. *The Nomura Group as defined in the Disclaimer section at the end of this report. Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system in Europe, Middle East and Africa, US and Latin America, and Japan and Asia ex-Japan from 21 October 2013 The rating system is a relative system, indicating expected performance against a specific benchmark identified for each individual stock, subject to limited management discretion. An analyst’s target price is an assessment of the current intrinsic fair value of the stock based on an appropriate valuation methodology determined by the analyst. Valuation methodologies include, but are not limited to, discounted cash flow analysis, expected return on equity and multiple analysis. Analysts may also indicate expected absolute upside/downside relative to the stated target price, defined as (target price - current price)/current price. STOCKS A rating of 'Buy', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of 'Neutral', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of 'Reduce', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of 'Suspended', indicates that the rating, target price and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as 'Not rated' or shown as 'No rating' are not in regular research coverage. Investors should not expect continuing or additional information from Nomura relating to such securities and/or companies. Benchmarks are as follows: United States/Europe/Asia ex-Japan: please see valuation methodologies for explanations of relevant benchmarks for stocks, which can be accessed at: http://go.nomuranow.com/research/globalresearchportal/pages/disclosures/disclosures.aspx; Global Emerging Markets (ex-Asia): MSCI Emerging Markets ex-Asia, unless otherwise stated in the valuation methodology; Japan: Russell/Nomura Large Cap. SECTORS A 'Bullish' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to outperform the Benchmark during the next 12 months. A 'Neutral' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to perform in line with the Benchmark during the next 12 months. A 'Bearish' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to underperform the Benchmark during the next 12 months. Sectors that are labelled as 'Not rated' or shown as 'N/A' are not assigned ratings. Benchmarks are as follows: United States: S&P 500; Europe: Dow Jones STOXX 600; Global Emerging Markets (ex-Asia): MSCI Emerging Markets ex-Asia. Japan/Asia ex-Japan: Sector ratings are not assigned. Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system in Japan and Asia ex-Japan prior to 21 October 2013 STOCKS Stock recommendations are based on absolute valuation upside (downside), which is defined as (Target Price - Current Price) / Current Price, subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the Target Price will equal the analyst's 12-month intrinsic valuation of the stock, based on an appropriate valuation methodology such as discounted cash flow, multiple analysis, etc. A 'Buy' recommendation indicates that potential upside is 15% or more. A 'Neutral' recommendation indicates that potential upside is less than 15% or downside is less than 5%. A 'Reduce' recommendation indicates that potential downside is 5% or more. A rating of 'Suspended' indicates that the rating and target price have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including when Nomura is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the subject company. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as 'Not rated' or shown as 'No rating' are not in regular research coverage of the Nomura entity identified in the top banner. Investors should not expect continuing or additional information from Nomura relating to such securities and/or companies. SECTORS A 'Bullish' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a positive absolute recommendation. A 'Neutral' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a neutral absolute recommendation. A 'Bearish' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a negative absolute recommendation. Target Price A Target Price, if discussed, reflects in part the analyst's estimates for the company's earnings. The achievement of any target price may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market, and may not occur if the company's earnings differ from estimates. Disclaimers

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