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IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Climate Change and the IPCC Fourth Assessment
Jean PalutikofHead, Technical Support UnitWorking Group IIIPCCMet Office, Exeter, UK
IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Other gases are important as well as CO2
IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
What is the evidence for climate change?
IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
What is the expected impact on climate?
Change in global surface temperature
Change in global mean sea level
IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Pattern of annual average temperature change, 2080s relative to present day for A1F1 (left) and B2 (right) emissions scenarios
IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
A2a scenario
A2a
B2a
A2a:– Longer by 15-30
days in centre and south east
– 10 days shorter over northern Europe
B2a:– Smaller changes than
A2a– wetter Eastern Med.
10oW 0o 10oE 20oE 30oE 40oE 30oN
35oN
40oN
45oN
50oN
-10
0
10
20
30
10oW 0o 10oE 20oE 30oE 40oE 30oN
35oN
40oN
45oN
50oN
-10
0
10
20
30
Precipitation indices: maximum length of dry spell per year (2070-99 minus 1961-90)
IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Precipitation indices: max. 5-day running total(2070-99 minus 1961-90)
A2a scenario
A2a:– Lower intensity, by
10-20 mm, in future, particularly in west
– Increased intensity in centre and Adriatic
B2a:– Smaller changes
than A2a– Clearly higher
intensity in Italy
10oW 0o 10oE 20oE 30oE 40oE 30oN
35oN
40oN
45oN
50oN
-40
-20
0
20
40
10oW 0o 10oE 20oE 30oE 40oE 30oN
35oN
40oN
45oN
50oN
-40
-20
0
20
40
IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
What are the implications for European urban areas?
IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Impacts
• Impacts of more intense rainfall on storm drains/sewers
• Heat stress
• Changes in circulation and the implications for air pollution
• Coastal cities and tidal surge
• Implications of increased wind storm
IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
All cause death rate• Strongest associations with temperature
are between August and March
• In November, 64% of the variance in the death rate is explained by temperature
• The reduction in the death rate due to a 1 degC increase in temperature and a 10mm decrease in rainfall is in the range 1-3%
y = 53.259x2 - 2167.6x + 69562R2 = 0.67
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25
°C
nu
mb
er
of
death
s
Deaths per day and mean temperatures in July
1340
1360
1380
1400
1420
1440
1460
1480
1500
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Mean temperature in degrees C.
Dea
ths
per d
ay
All months r2 = 0.67
IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Adaptation
• Through design:– Of urban spaces– Of buildings
• Through behaviour– Use of the outdoor environment– Transport policies– Air conditioning
IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Mitigation activities
• Energy use– Reduction in demand– Use of renewables
• Fuel-efficient transport systems
IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
What about surprises/abrupt climate change?
• Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
• Melting of the Greenland ice cap
• Collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation
• Of course, the real surprises are the ones we haven’t thought of
IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change
• To assess the scientific literature on climate change
• To support the UNFCCC• Three Working Groups
– Science– Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability– Mitigation and Policy
• Now carrying out the Fourth Assessment• To report in 2007
IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Structure of WGII• Two Co-Chairs:
– Martin Parry, UK– Osvaldo Canziani, Argentina
• Six Vice-Chairs• One TSU with four full-time staff• Writing team of around 200 CLAs, LAs and REs, plus
Contributing Authors• Four Lead Author Meetings
IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Working Group II AR4Summary for Policymakers + Technical Summary Introduction1. Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed
systems II. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: SECTORS 2. New assessment methodologies and the characterisation of future
conditions3. Fresh water resources and their management 4. Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services 5. Food, fibre and forest products6. Coastal systems and low-lying areas 7. Industry, settlement, and society8. Human health III. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: REGIONS 9: Africa, 10: Asia, 11: Australia and New Zealand, 12: Europe, 13: Latin
America 14: North America, 15: Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic), 16: Small IslandsIV. ASSESSMENT OF RESPONSES 17. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity18. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation19. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change20. Perspectives on climate change and sustainability
IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Supposing you wanted to contribute to the process
• The IPCC assesses the literature• It seeks to be inclusive and consensual• The preference is for fully refereed
publications• There are procedures to deal with ‘grey
literature’• Submissions of literature and/or text can be
made to the appropriate CLA, the Co-Chairs or the TSU, for consideration
IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
The message from IPCC TAR• Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to
human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to alter our climate
• There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities
• Human influences will continue to change atmospheric composion throughout the 21st century
• Global temperatures and sea level are projected to rise under all IPCC SRES scenarios
• Anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries
• See www.ipcc.ch