Ipsos Brexit consequences poll · IPSOS BREXIT CONSEQUENCES POLL Do you think that rexit was the right decision or the wrong decision for…ritain/ the European Union/ own country

1 ©Ipsos.1

Ipsos Brexit consequences poll

July 2016

©Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

©Ipsos.

2 ©Ipsos.

Contents

1 Reactions to the result

2 Impact of Brexit on the European Union

3 Impact of Brexit on the UK

4 Section 4: Future relationship between European Union and UK

3 ©Ipsos.

REACTIONS TO THE RESULT

3 ©Ipsos.

4 ©Ipsos.

Most in EU countries think Britain was wrong to leave – outside the EU people are less certain

IPSOS BREXIT CONSEQUENCES POLL

Do you think that Brexit was the right decision or the wrong decision for…Britain/ the European Union/ own country?

Base: 12,525 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Japan, Italy, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, United States, July 2016

European Union countries

Countries outside of the European Union

58%

55%

40%

35%

Think Brexit vote was wrong decision for Britain

Think Brexit vote was wrong decision for the European Union

50% 26%

Think Brexit vote was wrong decision for own country

5 ©Ipsos.

Spanish most likely to think Brexit wrong for Britain - 1/2IPSOS BREXIT CONSEQUENCES POLL

Do you think that Brexit was the right decision or the wrong decision for Britain?


69%

63%

63%

61%

51%

49%

49%

47%

43%

14%

20%

20%

21%

38%

25%

24%

27%

38%

17%

16%

17%

18%

11%

26%

27%

27%

20%

Spain

Germany

Belgium

Sweden

Great Britain

Poland

Hungary

France

Italy

WRONG

DECISION

RIGHT

DECISION

DON'T KNOW

European Union

countries

6 ©Ipsos.

Spanish most likely to think Brexit wrong for Britain - 2/2IPSOS BREXIT CONSEQUENCES POLL

Do you think that Brexit was the right decision or the wrong decision for Britain?


44%

41%

40%

40%

39%

29%

10%

17%

11%

31%

23%

37%

29%

54%

40%

47%

29%

37%

24%

42%

36%

Canada

Japan

South Africa

Australia

India

US

Russia

WRONG

DECISION

RIGHT

DECISION

DON'T KNOW

Countries outside of

the European Union

7 ©Ipsos.

Swedes most worried about impact on European Union - 1/2IPSOS BREXIT CONSEQUENCES POLL

Do you think that Brexit was the right decision or the wrong decision for the European Union?


68%

65%

64%

63%

61%

56%

55%

51%

41%

9%

10%

15%

8%

19%

23%

22%

22%

25%

23%

25%

22%

29%

20%

21%

24%

27%

34%

Sweden

Poland

Spain

Hungary

Great Britain

Germany

Belgium

Italy

France

WRONG

DECISION

RIGHT

DECISION

DON'T KNOW

European Union

countries

8 ©Ipsos.

Swedes most worried about impact on European Union - 2/2IPSOS BREXIT CONSEQUENCES POLL

Do you think that Brexit was the right decision or the wrong decision for the European Union?


50%

47%

43%

43%

34%

33%

30%

18%

9%

13%

31%

20%

9%

22%

32%

44%

44%

26%

46%

58%

48%

South Africa

Canada

Australia

India

US

Japan

Russia

WRONG

DECISION

RIGHT

DECISION

DON'T KNOW


the European Union

9 ©Ipsos.

Poles, Swedes and Spanish most worried about impact of decision for their own country


Do you think that Brexit was the right decision or the wrong decision for your own country?

Base: 6,012 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, July 2016

40

303127

342830

26 272619

2215171516

33

44505051

555558

FranceItalyBelgiumGermanyHungarySpainSwedenPoland

10 ©Ipsos.

4 in 10 in EU countries sad to see UK leave – but more unaffectedIPSOS BREXIT CONSEQUENCES POLL

How does the UK's decision to leave the European Union make you feel, if at all – happy, sad or neither?


13%

39%

48%

14%

24%62%

European Union countries Countries outside of the European Union

HAPPY

SAD

NEITHER

11 ©Ipsos.

Brexit and feelings of happiness and sadness - 1/2IPSOS BREXIT CONSEQUENCES POLL

How does the UK's decision to leave the European Union make you feel, if at all - Happy, sad or neither?

Base: 12,525 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden and the United States, July 2016

49%

48%

41%

40%

40%

38%

36%

34%

25%

29%

11%

10%

8%

8%

9%

19%

9%

14%

23%

41%

49%

52%

53%

53%

45%

57%

60%

Great Britain

Sweden

Belgium

Hungary

Spain

Poland

Italy

Germany

France

SAD

HAPPY

NEITHER

European Union

countries

12 ©Ipsos.

Brexit and feelings of happiness and sadness - 2/2IPSOS BREXIT CONSEQUENCES POLL

How does the UK's decision to leave the European Union make you feel, if at all - Happy, sad or neither?


32%

31%

30%

27%

23%

20%

6%

24%

11%

4%

6%

12%

19%

22%

44%

58%

66%

66%

65%

61%

72%

India

South Africa

Japan

Canada

Australia

US

Russia

SAD

HAPPY

NEITHER


the European Union

13 ©Ipsos.

Brexit has made 46% in EU countries more worried for futureIPSOS BREXIT CONSEQUENCES POLL

How does the UK's decision to leave the European Union make you feel, if at all - More worried about the future, more hopeful about the future or neither?



15%

46%

39%

17%

34%

48%

MORE HOPEFUL ABOUT THE FUTURE

MORE WORIED ABOUT THE FUTURE

NEITHER

14 ©Ipsos.

In EU, Swedes most worried, French the least - 1/2IPSOS BREXIT CONSEQUENCES POLL



53%

53%

51%

49%

46%

45%

42%

42%

31%

13%

32%

6%

14%

10%

23%

9%

13%

13%

34%

15%

42%

37%

44%

32%

49%

45%

56%

Sweden

Great Britain

Hungary

Poland

Belgium

Italy

Spain

Germany

France

MORE WORRIEDABOUT THE FUTURE

MORE HOPEFULABOUT THE FUTURE

NEITHER

European Union

countries

15 ©Ipsos.

In EU, Swedes most worried, French the least - 2/2IPSOS BREXIT CONSEQUENCES POLL



51%

47%

36%

35%

32%

31%

10%

14%

6%

8%

33%

14%

19%

29%

36%

47%

56%

32%

54%

50%

61%

SouthAfrica

Japan

Canada

India

Australia

US

Russia

MORE WORRIEDABOUT THEFUTURE

MORE HOPEFULABOUT THEFUTURE

NEITHER


the European Union

16 ©Ipsos.

IMPACT OF BREXIT ON THE EUROPEAN UNION

16 ©Ipsos.

17 ©Ipsos.

Most think Brexit will be bad for EU economyIPSOS BREXIT CONSEQUENCES POLL

Now that the UK has voted to leave the European Union, do you think it will have a positive or negative impact, or make no difference, on…the EU’s economy / influence on the world stage? & Following on from the UK's vote to leave the European Union, do you think the EU will be weaker/ stronger




47%

53%

45%

52%

Think that Brexit will be somewhat to very negative for the European Union’s economy

Think that Brexit will be somewhat to very negative for the European Union's influence on the world stage

54% 47%Think Brexit vote will make EU weaker

18 ©Ipsos.

Hungarians and Japanese most likely to think EU will be negatively affected – French the least


Now that the UK has voted to leave the European Union, do you think it will have a positive or negative impact, or make no difference, on…the EU’s economy / influence on the world stage?


72

58 56 55 53 51 48 4535

69

55 55 51 49 4538

66

52 5145 45 45 42 41

34

67

45 4941 42 39 35


% think that Brexit will be somewhat to very negative for the EU’s economy

% think that Brexit will be somewhat to very negative for the EU’s influence on the world stage

19 ©Ipsos.

Big differences on whether Brexit will weaken the EU - 1/2IPSOS BREXIT CONSEQUENCES POLL

Following on from the UK's vote to leave the European Union, do you think the European Union will be stronger or weaker?


64%

64%

62%

62%

55%

53%

46%

43%

37%

5%

10%

6%

5%

11%

13%

13%

17%

15%

31%

26%

31%

32%

34%

34%

41%

40%

48%

Great Britain

Poland

Sweden

Hungary

Italy

Spain

Belgium

Germany

France

WEAKER

STRONGER

DON'TKNOW

European Union

countries

20 ©Ipsos.

Big differences on whether Brexit will weaken the EU - 2/2IPSOS BREXIT CONSEQUENCES POLL

Following on from the UK's vote to leave the European Union, do you think the European Union will be stronger or weaker?


54%

52%

47%

47%

44%

43%

42%

5%

13%

12%

5%

7%

33%

4%

41%

35%

41%

48%

49%

24%

53%

Russia

South Africa

US

Canada

Australia

India

Japan

WEAKER

STRONGER

DON'TKNOW


the European Union

21 ©Ipsos.

8%

16%

9%

12%

15%

9%

9%

8%

11%

34%

35%

33%

39%

40%

39%

42%

37%

32%

42%

51%

42%

50%

55%

49%

51%

45%

43%

14%

13%

10%

10%

11%

8%

7%

7%

6%

46%

30%

31%

30%

29%

30%

30%

29%

30%

60%

43%

42%

40%

39%

38%

37%

37%

36%

Great Britain

Italy

France

Germany

Hungary

Belgium

Sweden

Poland

Spain

41% in EU countries think Brexit will lead to ‘domino’ effect – down from 48% pre-vote (but up in GB) - 1/2


To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Now Britain has left the European Union/ If Britain left the European Union…other countries will follow

Base July 2016: 12,525 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden and the United States, July 2016 & Base April 2016: 11,030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy,, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden and the United States, July 2016

STRONGLY AGREE

TEND TO AGREE

Post-Brexit vote Pre-Brexit voteEuropean Union

countries

22 ©Ipsos.

18%

15%

12%

8%

6%

6%

3%

31%

33%

28%

32%

30%

30%

22%

48%

48%

40%

40%

36%

36%

26%

Russia

India

US

South Africa

Australia

Canada

Japan

0%

15%

9%

9%

5%

5%

0%

33%

40%

35%

28%

30%

48%

49%

44%

34%

35%

NA

NA

41% in EU countries think Brexit will lead to ‘domino’ effect – down from 48% pre-vote (but up in GB) - 2/2


To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Now Britain has left the European Union/ If Britain left the European Union…other countries will follow

Base July 2016: 12,525 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden and the United States, July 2016 & Base April 2016: 11,030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy,, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden and the United States, July 2016

STRONGLY AGREE

TEND TO AGREE

Post-Brexit vote Pre-Brexit voteCountries outside of

the European Union

23 ©Ipsos.

What will the future European Union look like?IPSOS BREXIT CONSEQUENCES POLL

Do you think the European Union in 2020 will...?

Base April 2016: 7,022 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Great Britain , Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden/ Base July 2016: 7,014 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Great Britain , Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden

16%29%

6%

11%21%

39% 40%

...have a single European

government...resemble today’s European

Union, with the same balance of

powers between the EU and

individual countries

...have disappeared altogether

12%

33%6%

10%

18%

40% 42%

+ ...be more integrated, with

more powers for the European

Union compared to individual

countries

+ ...be less integrated, with fewer

powers for the European Union

compared to individual countries

Be more integrated Resemble today’s EU Be less integrated

Results before the referendum (April 2016) Results after the referendum (July 2016)

24 ©Ipsos.

51%

37%

47%

41%

41%

41%

33%

36%

32%

27%

39%

33%

34%

42%

38%

45%

47%

46%

22%

24%

21%

25%

18%

21%

22%

17%

22%

Hungarians most likely to think EU will be less integrated in 2020, and since the Brexit vote Britons more likely to think EU will be less integrated


Do you think the European Union in 2020 will...?

Base April 2016: 7,022 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Great Britain , Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden/ Base July 2016: 7,014 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Great Britain , Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden

56%

50%

48%

45%

41%

38%

38%

33%

31%

26%

33%

33%

35%

40%

48%

45%

49%

49%

17%

17%

18%

20%

19%

14%

17%

18%

20%

Hungary

Great Britain

Poland

Italy

France

Sweden

Germany

Belgium

Spain

BE LESS INTEGRATED

RESEMBLE TODAY’S EU

BE MORE INTEGRATED

Post-Brexit vote Pre-Brexit vote

25 ©Ipsos.

IMPACT OF BREXIT ON THE UK

25 ©Ipsos.

26 ©Ipsos.

Most in EU countries think that Brexit will harm UK – but outside the EU many do not know


Now that the UK has voted to leave the European Union, do you think it will have a positive or negative impact, or make no difference, on…the UK’s economy / influence on the world stage? & Following on from the UK's vote to leave the European Union, do you think the UK will be weaker/ stronger




52%

58%

40%

46%

Think that Brexit will be somewhat to very negative for Britain’s economy

Think that Brexit will be somewhat to very negative for Britain’s influence on the world stage

53% 36%

Think that Brexit will make Britain weaker

27 ©Ipsos.

70 68 63 63 6357

50 4943

6857 52 52

3933

21

60 56 58 57 5649 50

42 40

63

46 4639

31 33

20

Germans, Japanese and Belgians most likely to think Britain’s economy will be harmed by Brexit


Now that the UK has voted to leave the European Union, do you think it will have a positive or negative impact, or make no difference, on…Britain’s economy/ influence on the world stage?



% think that Brexit will be somewhat to very negative for the British economy

% think that Brexit will be somewhat to very negative for the Britain’s influence on the world stage

28 ©Ipsos.

Germans and Spanish most likely to think Brexit will weaken Britain – but Indians and Russians think GB will be stronger out - 1/2


Following on from the UK's vote to leave the European Union, do you think the UK will be stronger or weaker?


64%

64%

60%

57%

50%

49%

47%

44%

41%

13%

14%

14%

21%

25%

35%

25%

21%

34%

23%

22%

26%

23%

25%

16%

27%

35%

25%

Germany

Spain

Belgium

Sweden

Poland

Great…

Hungary

France

Italy

WEAKER

STRONGER

DON'T KNOW

European Union

countries

29 ©Ipsos.

Germans and Spanish most likely to think Brexit will weaken Britain – but Indians and Russians think GB will be stronger out - 2/2


Following on from the UK's vote to leave the European Union, do you think the UK will be stronger or weaker?


44%

43%

40%

38%

36%

32%

17%

15%

10%

30%

23%

44%

33%

47%

41%

47%

30%

39%

20%

36%

37%

Canada

Japan

South Africa

Australia

India

US

Russia

WEAKER

STRONGER

DON'T KNOW


the European Union

30 ©Ipsos.

FUTURE OF BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH EUROPE

30 ©Ipsos.

31 ©Ipsos.

EU countries split on severity of deal Britain should get – but outside EU more think it should be favourable


To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? - The European Union should offer favourable/ unfavourable terms to Britain in negotiations about their future relationship to reduce the negative impact on the economy overall/in order to discourage other countries from leave the European Union


The European Union should offer favourable terms to Britain

30%

39%

42%

47%

28%

14%

EU countries

Non-EU countries

The European Union should offer unfavourable terms to Britain

27%

22%

44%

50%

29%

28%

EU countries

Non-EU countries

AGREE

NEITHER AGREE NOR DISAGREE

DISAGREE

32 ©Ipsos.

56

3631

28 26 26 2520 19

52 51

44 4337

33

141623 20 23

30 28 2734

39

25

40

21 19 16 16 19

Britons think they should get a favourable deal – but French and Belgians think priority is to stop others from leaving


To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? - The European Union should offer favourable/ unfavourable terms to Britain in negotiations about their future relationship to reduce the negative impact on the economy overall/in order to discourage other countries from leave the European Union



% think that EU should offer favourable terms to Britain % think that EU should offer unfavourable terms to Britain

33 ©Ipsos.

One in four in EU countries say less likely to visit the UK or buy British – but most say it will make no difference


After the UK's vote to leave the EU, are you more likely or less likely to do each of the following, or does it make no difference?

Base: 11,523 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden and the United States, July 2016

8%

17%

26%

17%

66%

67%

EU countries (excl. UK)

Non-EU countries

Visit the UK on holidays

10%

18%

16%

12%

74%

70%


Non-EU countries

Welcome British tourists to your country

7%

14%

27%

17%

66%

70%


Non-EU countries

Buy British goods or services

7%

14%

17%

13%

77%

73%


Non-EU countries

Consume British culture, such as TV, films, books or music

MORE LIKELY

LESS LIKELY

MAKE NO DIFFERENCE

34 ©Ipsos.

Italians and Spanish most likely to be put off buying British - 1/2IPSOS BREXIT CONSEQUENCES POLL



Are less likely to visit the UK

on holidays

Are less likely to buy British goods or services

15%

17%

20%

21%

33%

34%

34%

37%

Sweden

Belgium

Hungary

France

Spain

Germany

Poland

Italy

17%

19%

19%

20%

28%

33%

37%

43%

Hungary

Belgium

Sweden

France

Poland

Germany

Spain

Italy

European Union

countries

35 ©Ipsos.

Italians and Spanish most likely to be put off buying British - 2/2IPSOS BREXIT CONSEQUENCES POLL



Are less likely to visit the UK

on holidays

Are less likely to buy British goods or services

9%

11%

12%

15%

19%

24%

26%

Russia

Australia

Canada

US

South Africa

India

Japan

9%

9%

11%

17%

17%

21%

33%

Canada

Russia

Australia

US

South Africa

Japan

India

Countries outside

of the European

Union

37 ©Ipsos.

For more information

Gideon SkinnerResearch Director, Ipsos MORI UK

[email protected]

+44 (0)20 7347 3260

Jean-Michel LebrunResearch Director, Ipsos

[email protected]

+32 (0) 2 642 49 10

Daan BijwaardResearch Executive, Ipsos

[email protected]

+32 (0) 2 642 49 37

38 ©Ipsos.

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Documents

Ipsos Brexit consequences poll · IPSOS BREXIT CONSEQUENCES POLL Do you think that rexit was the right decision or the wrong decision for…ritain/ the European Union/ own country