Upload
others
View
6
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
IPv4 Address LifetimeSANOG IV
Presented by Nurani Nimpuno, APNIC
Research activityconducted by Geoff Huston
and supported by APNIC
Are we running out of IP addresses?
• Recent media reports claiming we are running out of IP addresses– Some claim we’ve already run out in some
parts of the world
• But what are the facts?– Is the IPv4 sky falling?
• Geoff Huston, chief scientist at APNIC, has studied the IPv4 consumption rates
Modeling the Process
1. IETF definition of IPv4– Source: IETF standards (RFCs)
• Delegation of address space for IANA administration
2. IANA allocations to RIRs– Source: IANA IPv4 Address Registry
• Allocation of /8 blocks to RIRs and others
3. RIR allocations to ISPs– Source: RIR Stats files
• Allocation of blocks to LIRs
4. ISP announcements – Source: BGP routing table
• Amount of address space advertised
IETF Reserved, 20.1, 8%
Multicast, 16, 6%
Unicast, 219.9, 86%
1. IETF Delegations – IPv4
Breakdown of IPv4 address Space by /8 block equivalents
IETF Reserved, 20.1, 8%
Multicast, 16, 6%
IANA Pool, 89, 35%
IANA Allocated, 130.9, 51%
IANA Allocations - Current
IANA Allocations - HistoricalIANA Allocated IPv4 /8 Address Blocks
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03
RIR Allocations - Current
IETF Reserved, 20.1, 8%
Multicast, 16, 6%
IANA Pool, 89, 35%
RIR Pool, 14, 5%
Assigned, 116.9, 46%Allocated
RIR Allocations - Historical
RIR Assigned IPv4 /8 Address Blocks
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-83 Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03
BGP Routing Table
• The BGP routing table spans a set of advertised addresses
– Representing addresses in use by ISPs
• A similar analysis of usage and projection can be undertaken on this data
• Assumption: BGP routing table represents actual IP address usage
– Therefore it “drives” the other trends
BGP Routing Table - Current
IETF Reserved, 20.1, 8%
Multicast, 16, 6%
IANA Pool, 89, 35%
RIR Pool, 14, 5%
Assigned, 42.4, 17%
Advertised, 74.5, 29%
Allocated
BGP Announcements - HistoricalBGP Table - Address Span
0
50
100
150
200
No
v/99
Jan/
00
Ma
r/0
0
Ma
y/0
0
Jul/0
0
Se
p/0
0
No
v/00
Jan
/01
Ma
r/0
1
Ma
y/0
1
Jul/0
1
Se
p/0
1
No
v/0
1
Jan
/02
Ma
r/0
2
Ma
y/0
2
Jul/0
2
Se
p/0
2
Nov
/02
Jan/
03
Ma
r/0
3
Ma
y/0
3
Combining the DataIPv4 Address Space
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-83 Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03
IANA
RIR
BGP
Recent DataIPv4 Address Space
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Dec-99 Mar-00 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03
IANA
RIR
BGP
Projections
Projections – IANA & RIR Allocations
• Any projection is very uncertain because of:
– Sensitivity of allocation rate to prevailing RIR policies
– Sensitivity to any significant uptake up of new applications that require end-to-end IPv4 addressing vs use of NATs
Projections – BGP Data
• 3 year data baseline – Much shorter baseline than the IANA and RIR
projections– Considerable uncertainties with this projection
• First order differential of total BGP announcement– Until 2000, exponential growth– Since 2000, oscillating differential and overall
deceleration– Last 6 months, differential approaching 0 (i.e. no
growth)
• Linear fit seems most appropriate for this data
Process model - exponential
2020 2022
0
32
64
96
128
160
192
224
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22 Jan-24 Jan-26 Jan-28
IANA
RIR
BGP
Process model - exponential
2020 2022
2029
0
32
64
96
128
160
192
224
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22 Jan-24 Jan-26 Jan-28
IANARIRBGP
Unnann.
RIR pool
Process model - linear
2047
2031 2037
0
32
64
96
128
160
192
224
Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-15 Jan-20 Jan-25 Jan-30 Jan-35 Jan-40 Jan-45
IANA
RIR
BGP
Methodology and Caveats
• Projection of based on 2000-2003 data–IANA and RIR allocation practices
–BGP-based demand model
• Incorporating–RIR unallocated pool
–Total address space including allocated but unannounced
• Exponential growth model–Address space lasts until 2022–(or 2029 if all unannounced space recovered)
• Linear growth model–Address space lasts until 2037 (or 2047)
Some Big Issues
• This is just a model - reality will be different!
• Will the BGP routing table continue to reflect allocation rates?
• Is the model of the unannounced pools and RIR holding pools appropriate?
• Externalities…– What are the underlying growth drivers (applications and
services) and how are these best modeled?– What forms of disruptive events would alter this model, and to
what extent?
Concluding thoughts…
• IP address management
– Result of 20 year evolution on the Internet
• Supported Internet growth to date
• We are not running out of IP addresses now
– But impossible to predict future
• Policies change
• New technologies can emerge
• Market behaviour can change
What about IPv6?
• RIRs support the deployment of IPv6
– Transition will take time
• Necessary to start now
• IPv4 was slow to start, but grew exponentially over the last 10 years
– Don’t get left behind!
• Be future ready!
• Responsible management essential to keep the Internet running
Questions?
http://www.potaroo.net
http://www.potaroo.net/ispcolumn/2003-07-v4-address-lifetime/ale.pdf