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IPv6 Trends, Taiwan, Asia-Pacific and Worldwide: an update from 2014 TWNIC OPM Taipei, 21 June 2018

APNIC

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“A global, open, stable and secure

Internet that serves the entire Asia

Pacific community”

Thanks!

dg@apnic.net

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Back in 2014…

2014: Global IPv6 Capability

2.7%

2014: IPv6 Capability in TW

0.8%

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Today…

Today: IPv4 is nearly gone…

Today: IPv4 is nearly gone…

• Today’s IPv4 free poll is around 1.6 /8 blocks – Projected to fully exhaust within 3 years

• IPv4 address availability – Rationing policies in AFRINIC, APNIC, LACNIC, RIPE NCC – Market transfers in some regions, and between APNIC and

RIPE/ARIN

• The time has come to move on from IPv4.

Today: IPv6 is growing fast…

APNIC Labs

Google

2014

IPv6 routing – vs IPv4

IPv4 BGP

IPv4 ASNs

Source: APNIC Labs

750,000 62,000

IPv6 BGP

IPv6 ASNs

55,000 15,000

500,000

15,000

2014

8,000

45,000

2014

Global IPv6 capability is now 18% • APNIC Labs measurement system

– 10+ million samples per day, worldwide – Measurement script (HTML5) embedded within Google Ad*

• “Capable” means “has an IPv6 address” – % of sampled users who can fetch an IPv6 addressed web object – “Preference” is slightly lower: 17.3%

• Other measures place it slightly higher at 20% – Consider APNIC a “low side” count

• Lets rank the economies by IPv6 capability above and below the world average

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Drilling down…

CC % CC % CC % CC % CC % CC % CC % CC %

BE 58.75% IN 57.27% US 44.42% GR 38.61% DE 38.43% UY 37.46% LU 28.74% BR 28.53%

CH 28.28% FI 28.06% MY 27.53% JP 27.28% GB 26.01% IE 24.99% TT 24.51% FR 22.89%

EE 22.79% CA 21.57% PT 19.03% NZ 18.42%

Global Average = 18%

EC 17.94% AU 17.16% VN 14.91% NO 14.43% TH 13.30% PE 13.28% MO 13.14% HU 12.72%

NL 12.15% TW 12.01% RO 11.79% SA 11.41% SI 11.39% SE 11.17% MX 10.24% CZ 9.67%

GT 9.65% PR 8.68% KR 8.08% AT 7.85% PL 7.81% ZW 7.64% LK 7.36% AR 7.27%

SG 7.19% BO 5.26% DK 5.12% SK 4.00% ES 3.25% BA 2.92% EG 2.82% IL 2.42%

GA 2.42% LV 2.37% AE 2.27% IR 2.21% IT 2.09% BT 1.78% BG 1.62% RU 1.56%

CN 1.36% DO 1.12% KE 1.09% ZA 1.00%

CC % CC % CC % CC % CC % CC % CC % CC %

BE 58.75% IN 57.27% US 44.42% GR 38.61% DE 38.43% UY 37.46% LU 28.74% BR 28.53%

CH 28.28% FI 28.06% MY 27.53% JP 27.28% GB 26.01% IE 24.99% TT 24.51% FR 22.89%

EE 22.79% CA 21.57% PT 19.03% NZ 18.42%

Global Average = 18%

EC 17.94% AU 17.16% VN 14.91% NO 14.43% TH 13.30% PE 13.28% MO 13.14% HU 12.72%

NL 12.15% TW 12.01% RO 11.79% SA 11.41% SI 11.39% SE 11.17% MX 10.24% CZ 9.67%

GT 9.65% PR 8.68% KR 8.08% AT 7.85% PL 7.81% ZW 7.64% LK 7.36% AR 7.27%

SG 7.19% BO 5.26% DK 5.12% SK 4.00% ES 3.25% BA 2.92% EG 2.82% IL 2.42%

GA 2.42% LV 2.37% AE 2.27% IR 2.21% IT 2.09% BT 1.78% BG 1.62% RU 1.56%

CN 1.36% DO 1.12% KE 1.09% ZA 1.00%

CC % CC % CC % CC % CC % CC % CC % CC %

BE 58.75% IN 57.27% US 44.42% GR 38.61% DE 38.43% UY 37.46% LU 28.74% BR 28.53%

CH 28.28% FI 28.06% MY 27.53% JP 27.28% GB 26.01% IE 24.99% TT 24.51% FR 22.89%

EE 22.79% CA 21.57% PT 19.03% NZ 18.42%

Global Average = 18%

EC 17.94% AU 17.16% VN 14.91% NO 14.43% TH 13.30% PE 13.28% MO 13.14% HU 12.72%

NL 12.15% TW 12.01% RO 11.79% SA 11.41% SI 11.39% SE 11.17% MX 10.24% CZ 9.67%

GT 9.65% PR 8.68% KR 8.08% AT 7.85% PL 7.81% ZW 7.64% LK 7.36% AR 7.27%

SG 7.19% BO 5.26% DK 5.12% SK 4.00% ES 3.25% BA 2.92% EG 2.82% IL 2.42%

GA 2.42% LV 2.37% AE 2.27% IR 2.21% IT 2.09% BT 1.78% BG 1.62% RU 1.56%

CN 1.36% DO 1.12% KE 1.09% ZA 1.00%

CC % CC % CC % CC % CC % CC % CC % CC %

BE 58.75% IN 57.27% US 44.42% GR 38.61% DE 38.43% UY 37.46% LU 28.74% BR 28.53%

CH 28.28% FI 28.06% MY 27.53% JP 27.28% GB 26.01% IE 24.99% TT 24.51% FR 22.89%

EE 22.79% CA 21.57% PT 19.03% NZ 18.42%

Global Average = 18%

EC 17.94% AU 17.16% VN 14.91% NO 14.43% TH 13.30% PE 13.28% MO 13.14% HU 12.72%

NL 12.15% TW 12.01% RO 11.79% SA 11.41% SI 11.39% SE 11.17% MX 10.24% CZ 9.67%

GT 9.65% PR 8.68% KR 8.08% AT 7.85% PL 7.81% ZW 7.64% LK 7.36% AR 7.27%

SG 7.19% BO 5.26% DK 5.12% SK 4.00% ES 3.25% BA 2.92% EG 2.82% IL 2.42%

GA 2.42% LV 2.37% AE 2.27% IR 2.21% IT 2.09% BT 1.78% BG 1.62% RU 1.56%

CN 1.36% DO 1.12% KE 1.09% ZA 1.00%

Taiwan

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Taiwan

Taiwan, E Asia

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

East Asia

Taiwan

Taiwan, E Asia, Asia

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AsiaEast AsiaTaiwan

Taiwan, E Asia, Asia, and the World

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

WorldAsiaEast AsiaTaiwan

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Some cases…

Australia, Taiwan, India, Viet Nam…

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AustraliaTaiwanIndiaVietnam

Australia

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AustraliaTelstraInternode

Australia

ASAS1221 - ASN-TELSTRA Telstra Pty Ltd

ASAS4739 - INTERNODE-AS Internode Pty Ltd

ASAS133612 - VODAFONE-AS-AP Vodafone Australia Pty Ltd

ASAS4804 - MPX-AS Microplex PTY LTD

ASAS7545 - TPG-INTERNET-AP TPG Telecom Limited

ASAS9443 - INTERNETPRIMUS-AS-AP Primus Telecommunications

149 other ASN

IPv6 IPv4

Australia: Telstra and Internode

• Telstra – 464XLAT on Mobile, dualstack on Fiber – Multiple APN deployment in phases, long test period – iPhone support delayed during rollout pending iOS updates

• Internode – dualstack on Fiber and xDSL – First significant adopter of IPv6 in Australia – Long tail of old CPE directly owned by customers – Company acquired by iiNet and subsequently TPG and run as

independent ISP, but no longer prioritizing IPv6

India

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

IndiaRelianceBharti MobileHutchinson

India

ASAS55836 - RELIANCEJIO-IN Reliance Jio Infocomm Limited

ASAS38266 - HUTCHVAS-AS Vodafone Essar Ltd., Telecommunication - Value Added Services

ASAS45271 - ICLNET-AS-AP Idea Cellular Limited

ASAS45609 - BHARTI-MOBILITY-AS-AP Bharti Airtel Ltd. AS for GPRS Service

ASAS9829 - BSNL-NIB National Internet Backbone

822 other ASN

IPv6 IPv4

India

• Reliance – 464XLAT on mobile, MAP-T and dual stack on Cable – Clean build LTE (4G) deployment went live as IPv6 – Dominant after highly aggressive promotion campaign – Others followed: Hutchison, Airtel, Idea

• Bharti Airtel – Dual stack on mobile

Viet Nam

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

VietnamVNPTFPT

Viet Nam

ASAS18403 - FPT-AS-AP The Corporation for Financing Promoting Technology

ASAS45899 - VNPT-AS-VN VNPT Corp

ASAS7552 - VIETEL-AS-AP Viettel Group

ASAS24086 - VIETTEL-AS-VN Viettel Corporation

IPv6 IPv4

Viet Nam

• FPT – PPPoE dual stack deployment on Cable and Fiber – 6PE in MPLS core (RFC4798) – https://blog.apnic.net/2017/08/16/fpt-telecoms-ipv6-journey

• VNPT – Followed FPT after experiences integrated into national plan – 6PE/6VPE and dual stack, planning move to IPv6-only (464XLAT) – https://blog.apnic.net/2018/06/06/vnpts-deployment-of-ipv6-a-

success/

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Other cases…

United Kingdom

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

United KingdomSkyBTOrange

United Kingdom

ASAS5607 - BSKYB-BROADBAND-AS

ASAS2856 - BT-UK-AS BTnet UK Regional network

ASAS12576 - ORANGE-PCS

ASAS13285 - OPALTELECOM-AS TalkTalk Communications Limited

ASAS5089 - NTL

ASAS6871 - PLUSNET UK Internet Service Provider ASAS9105 - TISCALI-UK ISP Network, UK

292 other ASN

IPv6 IPv4

United Kingdom

• Sky – Dualstack on Cable and Fiber – In-house MAP-T for own CPE – Deployment phased by CPE versions, applied nationally – https://blog.apnic.net/2018/04/04/connecting-5-million-users-to-ipv6/

• BT – 464XLAT on mobile

Uruguay

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

UruguayAntel

Uruguay

ASAS6057 - Administracion Nacional de Telecomunicaciones

ASAS19422 - Telefonica Moviles del Uruguay SA ASAS11664 - Techtel LMDS Comunicaciones Interactivas S.A.

IPv6 IPv4

Malaysia

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MalaysiaTMNetMaxisDIGIIXCelcomNetUMobile

Malaysia

ASAS4818 - DIGIIX-AP DiGi Telecommunications Sdn. Bhd.

ASAS4788 - TMNET-AS-AP TM Net, Internet Service Provider

ASAS9534 - MAXIS-AS1-AP Binariang Berhad

ASAS10030 - CELCOMNET-AP Celcom Internet Service Provider

ASAS9930 - TTNET-MY TIME dotCom Berhad

ASAS38466 - UMOBILE-AS-AP U Mobile Sdn Bhd

IPv6 IPv4

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Back to Taiwan…

Taiwan

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

TaiwanTANETHINETEMOMEchunghwa

Taiwan (2018)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

TaiwanTANETHINETEMOMEchunghwa

Taiwan

ASAS17421 - EMOME-NET Mobile Business Group

ASAS3462 - HINET Data Communication Business Group

ASAS24158 - TAIWANMOBILE-AS Taiwan Mobile Co., Ltd.

ASAS9674 - FET-TW Far EastTone Telecommunication Co., Ltd.

ASAS131591 - AMBIT-AS-TW Ambit Microsystem Corporation ASAS24157 - VIBO-NET-AS Taiwan Star Telecom Corporation Limited.(Former Vibo Telecom

Inc.) 51 other ASN

IPv6 IPv4

Taiwan • Recent signs of activity from two major ASN in the Chinese

region of Taiwan – HINET Chunghwa Telecom (Landline, FTTx, xSDL) – EMOME (mobile division of Chunghwa)

• Representing almost 50% of Taiwanese samples • Early stages of a very rapid deployment

– Signs of “competitive tension” in IPv6?

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What’s next?

How much longer?

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https://hbr.org/2013/11/the-pace-of-technology-adoption-is-speeding-up

Sigmoid curves

The next five years?

Conclusions • IPv6 deployment is happening globally

– Ongoing sustained and accelerating growth – Evidence of competitive pressure

• Hard to predict where and when – We have strong, developed G8/G20 economies with little or no IPv6 – We have emerging Internet Economies with a lot of IPv6

• A new digital divide? – Lack of capital investment for deployment – Lack of competitive incentive? – Plan now, or pay later

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Finally…

apnic.net/survey

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Next Conference

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conference.apnic.net/46

Call for Papers open now https://conference.apnic.net/46/program/call-for-papers

Later…

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APRICOT 2019 / APNIC 47 Daejeon, Republic of Korea

18 to 28 February 2019

APNIC 48 Chang Mai, Thailand

5 to 12 September 2019

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Thanks!

dg@apnic.net