Is it Possible to Develop

Apprenticeship at the Secondary

Education Level in France ?

Results from a Randomized

Experiment

Th. Le Barbanchon, H. Naegele,

R. Rathelot, Ph. Zamora

CREST-DIW-Warwick University-DARES

Brief outline

Presentation of the results of a randomized experiment

aiming to help young high school students to find an

apprenticeship

– Policy motivation

– Theoretical background and predictions

– The experiment design and a few descriptive results

– Results

– Conclusion

Development of apprenticeship

Policy Motivations • Stagnation and decline of apprenticeship at the

secondary education level in France since 2008 (graphic).

• Apprenticeship improves transition towards employment, especially at the secondary education level.

• A high youth unemployment rate in France and southern European countries.

• A low level of si employment/initial education in southern countries and in France (table)

• Apprenticeship is generally considered the main policy to address this structural problem.

• Current Government goals : 500 000 apprentices in 2017.

Why such a program

Policy Motivations

• Counseling apprentice seekers : especially

appropriate in this context

– Apprenticeship-seekers must find an employer / they

must choose among a large number of professions

– They just get out from high shools and have not

academic performances.

– No experience at all.

– No particular knowledge of professions (working

conditions, etc.)

• A high dropout rate. (table)

Theoretical motivations

• A lot of evidences for the efficiency of

counseling programs (a brief review)

• It works but through which channel ?

• Simple formalization of the matching probability

),,()1Pr(

qsmm

ightnessmarket t :

typroductivi apparent :

effortsearch :

q

s

Theoretical motivations

• Theoretical goal : try to evaluate the role of these 3 channels in the explanation of the positive impact.

• Question perhaps easier to address this question in the apprenticeship market.

• An important point : the scholar performance is a important component of q.

• Predictions – 1st channel (s) : More contacts would be observed

– 2nd channel (q) : decreasing returns in function of q. The impact would be higher for less productive apprentice-seekers.

– 3rd channel the impact would depend on the tightness in sub-sectors.

)(

The design of the experiment

• Phase 1 : counseling before signing a

apprenticeship contract. Main goal : seeking a

contract.

• Phase 2 : counseling during the apprenticeship

contract. Main goal : avoiding dropouts.

• 1 random drawing : The assigned group is

counseled during the phase 1 and then during

the phase 2 (if she gets a contract and enters a

CFA taking part to the project).

15-24y.old Youth

Employment rate

UE28 30,9

UE15 33,6

Germany 45,0

Belgium 22,8

Spain 16,3

France 25,4

Greece 11,2

Italy 12,2

Netherlands 62,2

Portugal 21,8

United Kingdom 48,8

Sweden 41,8

Source : Eurostat, Labor force survey.Retour

A brief review of literature about

the impact of apprenticeship on youth

(from Cahuc and Ferracci, 2015)

• For France, – Abriac, Rathelot, Sanchez (2009) : short-term and long-term impact on

professional situation.

– Alet, Bonnal (2012) : positive impact on educational achievement.

– Bonnal, Clément, David-Clément (2004) ; Bonnal, Mendes, Sofer (2003)

: decrease of unemployment duration after apprenticeship.

• Other countries – Picchio, Pistolani (2013) : apprenticeship improves within-firm

integration

– Heckman, Kautz (2013) ; Halpern (2009) ; Bolli, Hoff (2014) : positive

impact on non-cognitive skills.

Retour

Number of apprentices at 31/12

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

1982

-83

83-8

4

84-8

5

85-8

6

86-8

7

87-8

8

88-8

9

89-9

0

90-9

1

91-9

2

92-9

3

93-9

4

94-9

5

95-9

6

96-9

7

97-9

8

98-9

9

99-0

0

00-0

1

01-0

2

02-0

3

03-0

4

04-0

5

05-0

6

06-0

7

07-0

8

08-0

9

09-1

0

10-1

1

11-1

2

12-1

313

-14

(1)

CAP/Mention complémentaire Autres diplômes de niveau V (BEP, certification professionnelle)

Niveau IV (Bac pro, Brevet professionnel) Niveau III (BTS, DUT)

Niveaux II et I (Licence, Master, diplôme d'ingénieur)

Champ : France Source : Depp, enquêtes 51 et Sifa. (1) effectifs provisoires issus de l'enquête n°10 Retour

Results

• A differential take-up rate quite high

• Much variation of success probability depending on the

sector

• Phase 1 : Counseling impact

– significant and positive in Food Industry and Hotels and

Restaurants

– Weak (not significant) in other sectors

– Significant and positive for best students and weak for others.

– Weak effects on drop-out rates.

A rather high differential take-up rate

Cohort Control Assigned Difference

Number of

youth

Blois 1 57,6 72,4 14,8 230

Blois 2 51,6 74,8 23,1 305

Bourg en Bresse 1 21,8 91,5 69,8 231

Bourg en Bresse 2 42,9 80,4 37,5 93

Le Mans 1 20,7 72,9 52,2 128

Le Mans 2 3,3 66,4 63,1 237

Limoges 1 48,6 67,0 18,3 189

Limoges 2 54,9 73,1 18,2 103

Orléans 1 19,5 86,0 66,6 206

Orléans 2 22,6 100,0 77,4 193

Roanne 1 14,6 72,2 57,6 200

Roanne 2 15,4 75,8 60,4 186

Tours 1 29,9 93,9 64,0 232

Tours 2 28,4 93,5 65,1 187

Total 28,4 79,3 50,9 2720

Take-up rate : ratio ( number of youth in contact with counseling operator from March to October

n )/( number of youth of the considered group)

Balancing test

Assigned group Control group Equality Test

Male 66,5 65,3 0,51

Age at 31/12/n 0,14

15 10,5 9,2

16 37 35,6

17 16,1 18,5

18 14 11,5

19 8,6 8,2

20 and + 13,8 17

Aimed diploma 0,4

BEP 1,7 1,1

CAP 87,6 86,2

Mention Complémentaire 0,3 0,4

Brevet Professionnel 2,1 2,2

Bac Pro 7,5 8,6

BTS (Bac+2) 0,8 1,4

Level in Mathematics (last class) 0,15

Below average 24,4 25,3

A little below average 14,8 14,3

At the average 23,6 22,1

A little above average 20,4 18,4

Above average 14,5 16,9

Not known 2,3 3

Level in French (last class) 0,48

Below average 16,7 17,6

A little below average 14,7 16,4

At the average 28 26,2

A little above average 20,9 21,5

Above average 16,7 16

Not known 3 2,3

Father Education Level 0,19

Without diplome or Brevet des collèges 20 15,6

Technical Diploma (BEP-CAP) 29,4 30

Baccalauréat (general, technologic or professionnal) 6,7 7,4

Higher Education Diploma 4,2 3,8

Not known 39,7 43,1

Mother's Education Level 0,7

Without diplome or Brevet des collèges 26,4 24,4

Technical Diploma (BEP-CAP) 25,3 25,3

Baccalauréat (general, technologic or professionnal) 11,7 12,2

Higher Education Diploma 5,2 6,4

Not known 31,4 31,6

Contract

Termination RateDrop-out rate

ratio drop-out

/ termination

Aimed diploma

V 31,5 27,1 86%

Baccalauréat 25,4 21,6 85%

III et plus 13,9 11,7 84%

Profession

Manufacturing 22,6 19,4 86%

Construction Sector 25 21,2 85%

Transport Sector / Logistic 13,8 12,1 88%

Trade / Accounting / 25,9 22,5 87%

Hotel/Restaurant 45 38,5 86%

Other Services 28,9 24,3 84%

All apprentices 24,5 21 86%

Field : Contracts that beginned in 2011/2012

Source : DARES, base de données issue du système Ari@ne de gestion informatisée des contrats d'apprentissage

Reading Note : 34,5 % of apprentices, aiming a level V diploma, early quit the contract. 27,7%

definitely drop out from apprenticeship

Retour

Reading Note : among youth seeking a contract in Food Industry, 90,5% contacted at least 1 firm.

contacted at least once an employer

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Construction

Sector

Food Industry Hairdressing-

Beauty

Mechanics Hotels-

Restaurants

Trade,

Accounting

All sectors

Reading Note : among youth seeking a job in Food Industry who contacted an employer, 90 % got a job

interview.

got an interview(if contact attempted)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Construction

Sector

Food Industry Hairdressing-

Beauty

Mechanics Hotels-

Restaurants

Trade,

Accounting

All sectors

got once a hiring proposition(if contact attempted)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Construction

Sector

Food Industry Hairdressing-

Beauty

Mechanics Hotels-

Restaurants

Trade,

Accounting

All sectors

Reading Note : among youth seeking a job in Food Industry who contacted an employer, 79 % got a hiring

proposal.

signed a contract

(if contact attempted)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Construction

Sector

Food Industry Hairdressing-

Beauty

Mechanics Hotels-

Restaurants

Trade,

Accounting

All sectors

Reading Note : among youth seeking a job in Food Industry who contacted an employer, 72 % signed a

contract.

Personal means = personal or familial relations, unsolicited application, already known employer

Proportion of jobs found by personal means

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Construction Sector Food Industry Hairdressing-Beauty Mechanics Hotels-Restaurants Trade, Accounting All sectors

Hiring

proposition

Contract

signature

Apprentice in

March n+1

Quitted before

March n+1

Quitted before

Novembre n+2

Academic level above average

in maths and french. 0.0163 -0.00122 0.0379* -0.0736** -0.0171

(0.0169) (0.0163) (0.0163) (0.0282) (0.0150)

Food Industry 0.0987 0.125 0.0876 0.0324 -0.0591

(0.189) (0.213) (0.178) (0.0504) (0.0843)

Hotels - Restaurants 0.0153 0.170 0.0192 0.207* -0.0538

(0.216) (0.213) (0.205) (0.105) (0.0937)

Construction sector 0.00940 0.0561 -0.000364 0.0956 -0.0983

(0.149) (0.151) (0.122) (0.0595) (0.104)

Hairdressing-Beauty -0.0371 0.0246 -0.0239 0.117* -0.00886

(0.147) (0.155) (0.156) (0.0545) (0.120)

Mechanics -0.00206 0.0445 0.00242 0.0584 0.0312

(0.207) (0.228) (0.206) (0.0639) (0.0950)

Trade-Accounting -0.0139 0.0827 0.0215 0.107* -0.0401

(0.210) (0.214) (0.207) (0.0492) (0.148)

(Ref : other professions)

Male 0.0292 0.0758* 0.0352 0.0741 -0.0210

(0.0194) (0.0313) (0.0419) (0.0399) (0.0827)

Observations 808 808 808 471 337

R-squared 0.101 0.099 0.107 0.119 0.083

*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

The program impact is signifcantly

positive

Reading Note : among youth not assigned towards the program during the year n,

48,1% are apprentices in March n+1. The program impact is significantly positive

(+5,3 points).The programme impact on contract signature is significantly positive (+7,7 points).

Outcome

Level

(control

group)

Apprentice in March n+1 48,1% 0.053** (0.017)

signed a contract 58,1% 0.083** (0.025)

received a hiring proposition 58,2% 0.077*** (0.015)

got a job interview 75,1% 0.022 (0.018)

Number of job interviews 1,4 0.16 (0.24)

contacted a firm 91,3% 0.023 (0.014)

Number of contacts 11,6 -0.47 (1.37)

Obs

Field : All students

1829

Impact

More contracts in Foord Industry and Hotels,

cafés, restaurants

Reading Note : among youth not assigned towards the program during the year n,

51,7% are apprentices in March n+1. The program impact is significantly positive

(+8,3 points).The programme impact on contract signature is significantly positive (+8,4 points).

Outcome

Level

(control

group)

Apprentice in March n+1 51,7% 0.083** (0.026)

signed a contract 64,7% 0.13** (0.037)

received a hiring proposition 65,0% 0.084** (0.022)

got a job interview 76,3% 0.067** (0.020)

Number of job interviews 2,5 -0.12 (0.25)

contacted a firm 89,6% 0.060** (0.020)

Number of contacts 9,1 -1.77 (1.21)

Obs

Field : students seeking an apprenticeship in Food Industry, and Cafes, Hotels, Restaurants

Impact

673

A weaker impact in other sectors

Reading Note : In other sectors, the impact is significantly positive for hiring propositions but

not for being apprentices in March n°1 and for effective contract signature

Outcome

Level

(control

group)

Apprentice in March n+1 45,8% 0.033 (0.028)

signed a contract 54,2% 0.049 (0.032)

received a hiring proposition 54,0% 0.069** (0.025)

got a job interview 74,4% -0.006 (0.037)

Number of job interviews 1,8 0.36 (0.34)

contacted a firm 92,4% 0.00 (0.014)

Number of contacts 13,1 0.39 (1.77)

Obs

Field : students seeking an apprenticeship out of Food Industry and Cafés, Hotels, restaurants

Impact

1156

The program impact is significant

only for high performance students

Best levels : students with average marks above average in French

and mathematics (44% of students)

Reading note : The counseling impact on contract signature is +12,0 points for best students. It is +4,6 points for others.

The différence between these 2 effects is significant.

Outcome Equality test

Apprentice in March n+1 0.031 (0.022) 0.071*** (0.019) 0,061

signed a contract 0.046 (0.027) 0.12*** (0.022) 0,027

received a hiring proposition 0.052** (0.017) 0.084*** (0.018) 0,145

got a job interview -0.001 (0.019) 0.056* (0.026) 0,045

Number of job interviews -0.067 (0.29) 0.55 (0.30) 0,13

contacted a firm 0.000 (0.019) 0.048*** (0.013) 0,02

Number of contacts -1.25 (1.55) 0.97 (1.22) 0,086

Obs

Field : all students

Impact on other students

Impact on students with best

scholar performance

1829

A slight positive impact on the early

termination rate

All sectors 0.0297 (0.0201) 0.0153 (0.0120)

HCR+Food Industry 0.0424** (0.0121) 0.0302 (0.0221)

Other sectors 0.0157 (0.0302) 0.00594 (0.0175)

High level students 0.0442* (0.0195) 0.0189 (0.0239)

Other students 0.0113 (0.0271) 0.0357 (0.0305)

Survey 1 Survey 2

Reading note : The counseling impact on early termination rate is +4,2 points in Food Industry and Hotels-restaurants