China’s biomass availability and potential: Is it possible to rescue food security from its

predicament?

Guanghui Xie, PhD 谢光辉

National Energy R&D Center for Non-food Biomass

College of Agronomy and Biotechnology China Agricultural University

国家能源非粮生物质原料研发中心

中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院

World Bioenergy Symposium, Changsha. Oct. 18-19

Food

Energy Enviro- nment

China biomass development faces the challenge of Food-Energy-Environment complexity

Biomass potential from organic wastes

Food

Energy Enviro- nment

Crop residue: 750 Mt (Wang et al. , 2013)

- 88% field residue, 12% process residue - 73% from maize (23%), rice (30%), wheat(20%) - 42% (314 Mt) potentially available for biofuel

- High collection and logistic cost

Forest residue 200 Mt - Competitive usage - High cost

(Xie et al. , 2012)

Livestock excreta: 220-280 Mt (dry)

Waste dead animal: 2.2 billion pigs

Municipal solid waste: 221Mt Organic waste water: 48 billion ton

县级作物秸秆产量分布

全国总县数：2740 旗县区 每县秸秆：0 ~3.1 Mt (平均为0.34 Mt) 秸秆产量1.0 ~ 3.1 Mt: 174旗县区(5.4%) 秸秆产量0.5 ~ 1.0 Mt: 407旗县区(17.3%)

2740 counties in total 0 ~3.1 Mt (0.34 Mt on average) in each county 1.0 ~ 3.1 Mt: 174 counties (5.4%) 0.5 ~ 1.0 Mt: 407 counties (17.3%)

Distribution of crop residue by county

Potential of ethanol from crop residues

5% 10% 15% 30% 50%

60%

70%80%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

15% Surplus the goal In 2020 Ethanol 10 Mt

Assuming that cellulose+hemicellulose=60%

Potential of biomass from marginal land

Food

Energy Enviro- nment

Marginal land (prairie, sparse wood land,

shrub land): 130 Mha (Zhuang et al. , 2011)

Most researchers (Yan et al, 2008; Tang et al., 2010 ; Shi, 2011) over-estimated marginal land (110-164 Mha) for biomass in China

Arable land in total: 137 Mha ≈

Potential of biomass from marginal land

Food

Energy Enviro- nment

Jilin

Xinjiang

Yunan Guizhou

Waste land (prairie, sparse wood

land, shrub land, and unused land):

26.8 Mha (Kou et al 2009)

Marginal land (prairie, sparse wood land,

shrub land): 130 Mha (Zhuang et al. , 2011)

Fragile ecosystems - Mountains - Arid/semiarid - Soil erosion - biodiversity loss

High cost

Liquid biofuel 45 M tone

Easy to be used: 16 % marginal land or 7 M tone ethanol

Could biomass improve food security in China?

Food

Energy Enviro- nment

Potential of contaminated arable land

Food

Energy Enviro- nment

Zin

c

Co

pp

er

A

rsen

ic

Me

rcury

Le

ad

C

adm

ium

Excessively contaminated land in China - MEPC: 10 Million ha(8%)1

- Experts: 20 Mha (17%)2,3

- News reports: 24 Mha (20%)4

Biomass feedstock

Bioethanol 30-60 M tone

(1 Zhou Shengxian. 2011; 6 Wang Huan. 2010; 3 Lu Zixian; 4 Sun et al. 2013; 5 Fan 2010)

China food security predicament

Food

Energy Enviro- nment

Domestic markets Int’l markets

World trade liberalization

Trade barriers

?

Food price August 2014 (CNY/t) CIF Domestic dutiable market price price Rice 3329 3800 Wheat 2007 2507 Corn 1767 2500 Soy 3900 4400

Sugar 2800 6100

Price gap: 500-800 CNY/t 3200 CNY/t (sugar)

INCREASING

Self-sufficiency government: ≥ 95%

DECREASING from 100% 2002 to 89% 2012

Grain relative surplus

Domestic production grain (Mt)

INCREASING 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

19

49

19

62

19

75

19

80

19

83

19

86

19

89

19

92

19

95

19

98

20

01

20

04

20

07

20

10

fee

db

ack

to r

esi

st

DE

China food security predicament

Food

Energy Enviro- nment

Domestic markets Int’l markets

Price gap: 500-800 CNY/t 3200 CNY/t (sugar)

INCREASING

Self-sufficiency continuous

DECREASING

Domestic production grain (Mt)

Grain relative surplus

INCREASING

fee

db

ack

to r

esi

st

DE

To low rate with which China can not feed itself

Nightmare: Nobody can feed China !!!

Combine food and energy (CFE) to improve food security

Food

Enviro- nment

Domestic markets Int’l markets

Price gap: 500-800 CNY/t 3200 CNY/t (sugar)

INCREASING

Self-sufficiency

DECREASING

Domestic production grain (Mt)

Grain relative surplus

INCREASING

fee

db

ack

to r

esi

st

DE

DE

Energy

Stimulate

IN

China

feeds

itself

Potential of food crops for fuels??

Enviro- nment

Domestic markets Int’l markets

Grain relative surplus

Energy

70 210

822 822

1352

1667 1727 1863 1933 2035

2207

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Fuel ethanol production (kt) kt

year Food

5.6 Mt grains 1 % of the total

Additional 2 Mt ethanol

Optimizing land use

• First largest potential organic wastes - rich and diversity, recycling to improve environment - for diversity energy production: power, heat, biogas, ethanol, bio-oil, ……. - high collection and logistic cost • Second one food crops mainly for food security

improvement - ethanol: 200 + 200 Mt (?? or more) • Last and uncertain potential is marginal land - not as large as expected!! - evaluation for the risk of soil erosion and desertification - perennial grasses

Conclusion: biomass availability and potential

Implication: Collaboration for the complexity of Food-Energy-Environment (FEE) Integration

Food

Energy Enviro- nment

Agriculture Forest Energy Environment Society

Governments

Researchers

Industries

Education Inte

rnat

ion

al

Thanks for your attention

NEA

China government plays a crucial role on it

• 谢光辉 博士 教授 国家能源非粮生物质原料研发中心副主任 中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院

• Guanghui Xie PhD, Professor of biomass feedstock and energy crops Deputy Director of the National Energy R&D Center for Biomass (NECB) College of Agronomy and Biotechnology China Agricultural University