Is it right to be a Tortoise or Hare in 5G migration? · The report Is it right to be a Tortoise or Hare in 5G migration? Migration strategies for 5G RAN and core 2019-2026, is written

R E T H I N K T E C H N O L O G Y R E S E A R C H RAN RESEARCH: THE RESEARCH ARM OF WIRELESS WATCH

Lead analyst: Caroline Gabriel

Is it right to be a Tortoise or Hare in 5G migration?

Migration strategies for 5G RAN and core 2019-2026

“R e t h i n k h a s a c o m mi t m e n t t o f o r e c a s t i n g m a r k e t s t h a t o t h e r s s h y aw a y f r o m – t h o s e o n t h e v e r g e o f r a d i c a l t r a n s f o r m a t i o n ”

https://rethinkresearch.biz/ Companies mentioned: Accelleran, Affirmed, Altiostar, Amazon, AT&T, AWS, BT, China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, Dish, Etisalat, HPE, Huawei, Mavenir, Microsoft Azure, NEC, Nokia, NTT Do-como, Open RAN Alliance, Orange, Parallel Wireless, Rakuten Mobile, Robin.io, Samsung, SingTel, SK Telecom, Small Cell Fo-rum, Spidercloud, Telecom Infra Project, Telefonica, Telstra, T-Mobile USA, Turkcell, Vodafone, YouTube, ZTE

Executive Summary

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CONTENTS

Page

Contents 2

Table of Figures 3

Introduction the road to 5G 5

The 5G migration path 6

The 5G phony war 8

Commercial drivers for 5G deployment – multiple phases 10

For most operators, migration to full 5G platforms will be a multi-stage process 15

Changing network vendors remains challenging 16

True 5G requires a 5G core 16

Capex investment will be restrained until cloud-native kicks in 17

New suppliers rise to the challenge 19

In the RAN, there is a chance for smaller vendors 20

Will open industry alliances accelerate the pace of migration? 22

Vendors and technologies will migrate from the cloud world 23

Case study: Japan 25

For most operators, the progression to a fully open vRAN will be a succession of steps over a decade 27

The typical progression to full 5G RAN 28

Timing challenges for the migration to SA 30

New 5G deployment will overtake 4G in 2023 32

Critical choices in dual connectivity and DSS 34

Dynamic spectrum sharing (DSS) 36

Small cells can drive the migration to disaggregated vRAN 38

Migration to 5G NR SA 39

Coexistence of 5G core and EPC 40

The challenges of the cloud-native 5G core 41

Operators work towards multivendor 5G core 43

Conclusion 45

The Rethink RAN Research process summarized 46

RAN Research: Forecasting disruption in wireless 47

About Rethink Technology Research 49


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TABLE OF FIGURES

Page

Figure 1. Key phases of deployment of 5G RAN and core 6

Figure 2. Operators’ top commercial drivers to deploy 5G RAN before 2024 13

Figure 3. Operators’ top commercial drivers to deploy 5G Standalone with

5G Core in 2024-2026 14

Figure 4. Total mobile capex spending by mobile and converged operators,

including new entrants, in 2019 to 2026, with the percentage allocated to 5G 18

Figure 5. Capex spending allocated to 5G RAN, core and spectrum by

region 2019 to 2026 19

Figure 6. Percentage of operators planning to support TIP/ORAN and ONF/CORD

platforms commercially before 2024 and in 2024-2026 23

Figure 7. 5G/multimode macro site deployments and upgrade, by MIMO configuration 29

Figure 8. Functional split options in a disaggregated RAN. Source: NGMN 31

Figure 9. Deployment of macro and micro base stations by radio technology

2019 to 2026 (numbers refer to radio units) 32

Figure 10. Deployment and upgrade of macro and micro base stations for 4G

expansion by region 2019 to 2026 33

Figure 11. Deployment of greenfield 5G macro and micro sites by region 2019 to 2026 33

Figure 12. Main options for deployment of 5G NR and coexistence with LTE 34

Figure 13. Plans for EN-DC option if deploying before 2024 35

Figure 14. Of those planning to deploy 5G by 2026, the first year to start

supporting their chosen technologies 36

Figure 15. Dynamic spectrum sharing 37

Figure 16. Percentage of operators planning to deploy new RAN architectures

in the small cell layer, by initial time period for commercial roll-out 38

Figure 17. Percentage of operators planning to deploy new RAN architectures

in the macro and micro cell layer, by initial time period for commercial roll-out 39

Figure 18. Strategy to migrate from 4G EPC to 5G core, for those deploying 5G before 2024 40

Figure 19. Expectations to deploy Intermediate SA Option 7 versus Option 4,

or a direct migration to Option 2 (5G-only) 40

Figure 20. KT’s three-step migration plan to full 5G 41

Figure 21. Timescales to deploy key technologies within the 5G era core network platform 45


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This document contains explanatory notes and commentary to accom-

pany the Excel spreadsheet ‘Rethink RAN Service 5G Migration Mod-

ule Mar20’. That contains further data breakdowns including regional

patterns. The surveys and forecasts on which the outputs are based

were conducted in November 2019 to January 2020.

There were 86 responses from service providers, including 39 converged

telcos, 31 mobile-first operators, and 16 alternative deployers of 5G (new

spectrum licensees, private operators, neutral hosts and cloud provid-

ers). The sample was restricted to operators with plans to deploy 5G

commercially between 2019 and 2026. The commentary refers only to a

selected number of the data tables included in the Excel data module.

Additional tables are included in the spreadsheet with additional re-

gional and other breakdowns.

The report analyzes the deployment trends, timelines and budgets for

cellular macro, micro and small cell networks as reflected by this sample

of operators, and those surveys, plus a series of in-depth interviews, are

central inputs to the resulting forecast of activity and spending to 2025.

This research was complemented by interviews with selected vendors,

standards and open source organizations, and by an overview of R&D

efforts in this field.


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Timing is all.

To a far greater extent than previous mobile generations, 5G will be a

multi-phased deployment, with the capex investment and roll-out

spread over a decade or more. It might be assumed that the operators

which switch on 5G first, and then move most quickly to more advanced

future stages in the architecture, would be the ‘winners’.

However, talk of a ‘5G race’ is misleadingly over-simplified. The suc-

cessful 5G operators will be those which select the best timing, for their

market and business model priorities, to deploy each phase of the 5G

network. So an operator that starts relatively late - because its 4G net-

work still has plenty of expansion room and is supporting new revenue-

generating services – may be able to leap straight to a future iteration of

5G technology, saving on migration challenges; or may deploy a tech-

nology at a time when prices have stabilized and teething problems ad-

dressed.

Of course, some first-phase deployers will secure early mover ad-

vantage. But the most ambitious operators to roll out fully-fledged cloud

-native 5G platforms, such as China Mobile and Japan’s Rakuten Mobile,

are also those which have met the kind of roll-out challenges and head-

aches which smaller or less technology-centric players would find im-

possible to cope with.

In the end, their advanced service models are likely to justify the early

setbacks and high costs. For others, that would not be true. The key is to

ensure that the speed of deployment, and of migration through the vari-

ous phases of the 5G journey, are clearly tied to the business model. And

since the 5G business model will be different for each MNO - as services

and revenue streams diversify away from simple, generic voice and data

– the technology and investment decisions should be equally diverse.

Introduction: the rode to 5G


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Figure 1 summarizes the main stages of migration from 4G (or, in some

cases, greenfield) to a 5G RAN and core.

• In the first phase – which some operators have kicked off in 2019, but

others will leave until 2022 or later – MNOs will first deploy 5G New

Radio Non-standalone (NR NSA), which works with the existing

LTE core. That core can be a slightly modified physical or virtualized

4G evolved packet core (EPC), or operators may choose to move to

the ‘5G EPC’, which is more significantly upgraded, fully virtual-

ized, and provides a smoother bridge to the 5G core network

(5GCN) in future.

• In the NSA phase, they can adopt EN-DC (E-UTRAN New Radio –

Dual Connectivity) so that devices can connect to 4G and 5G radio

networks simultaneously. There are various ways to deploy this

technology, as explored in Chapter 4.

• Another emerging technology to improve the performance of NSA

networks is Dynamic Spectrum Sharing (DSS), which allows LTE

spectrum to be used for both 4G and 5G traffic, improving an opera-

tor’s spectrum flexibility.

Figure 1.

Key phases

of deploy-

ment of 5G

RAN and

core

THE 5G MIGRATION PATH


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• In phase two, operators will deploy 5G New Radio Standalone (SA),

which requires the 5G core. This core may be simply virtualized, us-

ing virtual machines (VMs) but will often be the operator’s first fully

cloud-native platform, with all the core’s various functions disaggre-

gated and deployed as microservices, in containers. These can be

mixed and matched on the fly to scale services up and down or sup-

port new services.

• The 5G core network also supports advanced functionality such as

network slicing, which will also be important for some enterprise

services that require specialized capabilities like URLLC (ultra-

reliable low latency communications). Such capabilities will also re-

quire the operator to have implemented upcoming updates to the

3GPP 5G standards, moving from current Release 15 (which is split

between NSA and SA) to Releases 16 and 17. Other important addi-

tions in these releases will include support for unlicensed or shared

spectrum and integration with satellite.

• Because of the limitations of the Release 15/NSA platform which

most operators will use first, they are likely to launch less advanced

5G use cases in phase 1 – in general, enhancements to 4G’s mobile

broadband services, plus some fixed wireless access – and move to

those requiring advanced network capabilities in phase 2. The speed

to move to phase 2 will be partly determined by the urgency of the

operator’s need to support new services and generate additional rev-

enue streams.

• Some MNOs will not deploy 5G at all until after 2022. These opera-

tors are more likely to deploy the 5G core from day one. However,

they will still require coexistence with 4G and there will be several

ways to achieve that, as in NSA EN-DC (see Chapter 4).


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The report “Is it right to be a Tortoise or Hare in 5G migration?

Migration strategies for 5G RAN and core 2019-2026,” is written for any-

one who is involved at a senior level in planning an operator transition

to 5G, and for vendor personnel advising them.

Essentially anyone in strategy in a network provider, one of their tech-

nology partners, among implementers and equipment and software

suppliers and investors, at C Suite level down to product marketing and

product planning.

The RAN Research arm of Rethink Technology Research is essential

reading for anyone who wants to stay on top of current trends and

thinking among MNOs. It’s like being a fly on the wall in their plan-

ning meetings and is based on questions MNOs have answered about

their planned and future expenditure.

This report will give you statistical evidence of which technical strate-

gies are being adopted by different types of operators, and illustrates

how many MNOs are planning to use Non-Stand Alone mode with a

4G core, or whether they are going straight to a 5G core, or use network

slicing for service flexibility and when each of them will embark on full

cloud versions.

There is a spreadsheet of who is making what decisions at what time,

and what their given reasons are for doing so – it will help you align

your deployment using the same approach of other companies which

have the same business aims.

Who should buy this report?


9

These forecasts were based on a combination of data from:

• Detailed surveys, interviews and operator-by-operator modeling of

the IMG-40 groups.

• Studies and modelling of the deployments and strategies of the top

100 4G operators, as tracked by Rethink Technology Research’s quar-

terly surveys, interviews and desk research.

• A survey of 83 Tier 1 and Tier 2 mobile and converged operators

about their detailed plans for RAN deployments to 2025.

• Input from ecosystem vendors on shipments, technology strategies

and competitive landscape, also updated quarterly.

• Interviews with other stakeholders such as IoT services providers and

enterprises

• A calculation of the resources required in each type of location to

achieve the MNOs’ stated objectives.

Most of the forecasts refer specifically to nodes deployed within MNO

networks, either by themselves or by partners. MNOs may also make use

of third party nodes deployed outside their network and connected by

wireline or WiFi; and many edge cloud services will run on infrastructure

that is not used by MNOs at all.

The Rethink RAN Research process summarized


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Rethink Technology Research is a specialized research and consulting firm

with 12 years’ experience in surveying wireless, broadband, over-the-top

and quad play operators. This has resulted in a broad research base of over

140 service providers (MNOs, telcos, cable and satellite operators, over-the-

top providers) worldwide. These organizations are surveyed on a regular

basis about their network infrastructure and business plans, and have a re-

lationship of trust with Rethink.

Rethink also has deep relationships with the telecoms ecosystem (tier one

device OEMs, vendors, technology developers, integrators, regulators etc),

and is perceived as a thought leader in many areas of the telecoms and me-

dia sectors. Key areas of expertise and research experience include HetNet

migration, small cells and carrier WiFi; transformation strategies for the

RAN and the BSS/OSS; convergence of IT and network skills and platforms;

device and chipset roadmaps; spectrum strategy.

Here are some sample titles of reports we have produced recently:

• RAN investment growth will rely on alternative deployers

• Sharing assets is key to making 5G RAN affordable

• RAN automation is central to the 5G case—but is it a distant dream?

• Open RAN architecture set to disrupt 5G landscape

Single User license - $2,000 (One Report)

Single User subscription (This report plus 5 more) $6,000

Corporate license—$4,000 (unlimited distribution inside your

organization).

Corporate Subscription (This report plus 5 more) $10,000.

RAN Research: Forecasting disruption in wireless

SUBSCRIPTION COSTS


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RETHINK LEADERSHIP

RAN RESEARCH MAIN CO NTRIBUTORS

Caroline Gabriel - Research Director

[email protected]

+44 (0)207 450 1230

Peter White - Co-founder and CEO

[email protected]

+44 (0)117 925 7019

Caroline Gabriel - Research Director and Co-founder

[email protected]

+44 (0)207 450 1230

www.rethinkresearch.biz



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Rethink Technology Research is a specialized research and consulting

firm with 17 years’ experience in surveying wireless, broadband, over-the

-top and quad play operators. This has resulted in a broad research base

of over 140 service providers (MNOs, telcos, cable and satellite operators,

over-the-top providers) worldwide. These organizations are surveyed on

a regular basis about their network infrastructure and business plans, and

have a relationship of trust with Rethink.

Rethink also has deep relationships with the telecoms ecosystem (tier one

device OEMs, vendors, technology developers, integrators, regulators

etc), and is perceived as a thought leader in many areas of the telecoms

and media sectors. Key areas of expertise and research experience include

HetNet migration, small cells and carrier WiFi; transformation strategies

for the RAN and the BSS/OSS; convergence of IT and network skills and

platforms; device and chipset roadmaps; spectrum strategy.

About Rethink Technology Research

Need more information?

John Constant (Business Analyst)

[email protected]

O: +44 (0)1794 521411

M: +44 (0)7468 460739

mailto:[email protected]


13

Bristol & Exeter House Lower Approach Road

Temple Meads Bristol

BS1 6QS United Kingdom

Tel. +44 (0) 1173 291480 Tel. +44 (0) 1179 257019

www.rethinkresearch.biz

Published March 2020


Documents

Is it right to be a Tortoise or Hare in 5G migration? · The report Is it right to be a Tortoise or Hare in 5G migration? Migration strategies for 5G RAN and core 2019-2026, is written