Is School is Out for the summer? - The City University of ... · – Demographic, transcript, aid, credential info up to summer of 2010 – National student clearinghouse (NSC) data

Impact of Year-round Pell Grants / February 15, 2019

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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER

Feb 15, 2019

Vivian Yuen Ting Liu Post Doctoral Research Associate

CUNY Seminar Series February 15, 2019

Is School is Out for the summer? The Impact of Year-round Pell Grants on Academic and Employment Outcomes for Community college Students


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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER Feb 15, 2019 COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER

Overview –  The YRP –  Literature Review –  Conceptual Framework –  Method –  Data and summary statistics –  Results & Validity Checks –  Conclusion & Policy implication –  Q & A


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The Year-round Pell: What is it and Why?


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Source: U.S. Department of Education, Federal Pell Grant Program End-of-Year Report, 1977-78 through 2016-17; U.S. Department of Education, Federal Student Aid Data Center, Title IV Program Volume Reports and Aid Recipients Summary; calculations by the authors.

$11 $14

$16 $17 $17 $16 $15 $17

$20

$34

$40

$36 $34

$33 $31

$29 $27 $28

3.9 4.3 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.5 6.2 8.1

9.3 9.4 9.0 8.7 8.3 7.7 7.2 7.0

Total Pell Expenditures (Billions)

Number of Recipients (Millions)


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•  Pell –  Potential limitations

•  No support for summer enrollment for full time students •  Disproportionally affects the highest need students

•  1st round of Year-round Pell (YRP)

•  2009-10and2010-11•  Goal:degreeacceleration•  Eligibility:Alreadyenrolledfor24creditsand6creditsintheYRPawardterm

The Pell Grant


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•  Implementation •  Delayimplementation

•  Signedintolawin08andestablishedfinalregulationby09•  Totalawardfortheyearupto200%ofschedulegrant•  Estimated1.2millionindividualsbenefited($1,700onaverage)•  Cost:$2billion,6%ofthetotalPellGrantdisbursementintheAY09-10

•  Elimination •  July1,2011•  “lackofevidence”ofitseffectivenessandthecostwastwiceasexpected•  Meetthe$11.2billionfundingshortageinthePellprogram

•  $18.2billionto$35.6billionbetween08-09and10-11

The Year-round Pell Grant


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Source: U.S. Department of Education, Federal Pell Grant Program End-of-Year Report, 1977-78 through 2016-17; U.S. Department of Education, Federal Student Aid Data Center, Title IV Program Volume Reports and Aid Recipients Summary; calculations by the authors.

$11 $14

$16 $17 $17 $16 $15 $17

$20

$34

$40

$36 $34

$33 $31

$29 $27 $28

3.9 4.3 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.5 6.2 8.1

9.3 9.4 9.0 8.7 8.3 7.7 7.2 7.0

Total Pell Expenditures (Billions)

Number of Recipients (Millions)

YRP 1st

YRP 2nd


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•  Reinstatement the YRP –  Effective 2017-2018 award year –  Up to 150% of schedule Pell grant

The Year-round Pell Grant (old & new)

Old (2009-2012) New (2017+)

Yearly award 200% 150%

Eligibility: Credits requirement

24 or FTE equivalent enrolled by the award term

None

Eligibility: Credits requirement for award term

6 credits or ½ time 6 credits or ½ time


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What do we expect the YRP to do?


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•  The Pell grant /financial incentive seems to work •  3-6 % increase in enrollment and retention rate per each $1,000 in grant amount

(Deming and Dynarski, 2010).

•  Small positive impacts, affected by •  Focusontraditional-agestudents(Alon2011;Barr2015;Denning2018;LovenheimandOwens2014;SeftorandTurner2002)

•  Estimateamongmarginalstudentsaroundthecutoff(Marx&Turner,2017)•  Complexityoffinancialaidapplication(Bettingeretal.2012;DynarskiandScott-Clayton2006,2008;Kane1994)

•  Crowdingouteffects:loansandinstitutionaldiscount(Marx&Turner,2017,Turner,1998)

•  Sparse literature on the YRP •  Katsinas,Davis,Friedel,KohandGrant2011;Katsinas,Davis,JohandGrant2012;BannisterandKramer2015;Friedmann2016

What do we know so far?


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•  How does the YRP affect students’ academic and labor market outcomes in the first three years?

–  During enrollment in the 1st year: credits, financial aid, employment –  After the first summer: degree attainment, employment

This Study


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Conceptual Framework

Potential Effects of the YRP


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•  Prior to first summer –  Credits and employment

•  First summer –  Lower cost of education –  Likely to raise enrollment and summer credits accumulation

How may the YRP affect students?


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•  After first summer –  Credit accumulation and academic momentum (Adelman 1999, 2006;

Attewell, Heil, and Reisel, 2012; Attewell and Jang 2013) –  Degree attainment –  After-college employment effect (Liu & Belfield, 2014)

•  Financial aid crowding out effects –  Loan (Marx & Turner, 2017) –  Institutional/state aid (Lesley, 2014)



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•  Heterogeneous effects on different subgroups –  Certificate enrollees

•  Can be complete in three semester •  Higher motivation •  Higher Effects

–  Older students •  More sensitive to college pricing •  Higher opportunity cost to enroll in college



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Method

Difference-in-difference approach


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Difference-in-Difference Framework

Full-time

Part-time

06 07 08 09 10 11


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•  "#$%↓' : enrolled in for the first time after the introduction of the YRP. •  )*+,%↓' : full time in the first semester •  "#$%↓'  ∗ )*+,%↓' : Effect of YRP eligibility

•  -↓' : demographic characteristics (race, gender, hs graduation status, GPA and credits earned in the 1st term, EFC and Pell grant amount in the 1st term, college and major fixed effects.

* Year of work experience and its squared term are also control for any regressions with employment outcomes.

Difference-in-Difference Framework


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Data

State administrative dataset Community College System


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•  Over 26,000 Individuals –  4 cohorts of first-time degree-seeking students (2006 - 2009) –  Enter the community college system of an anonymous state in the fall –  Pell recipients –  Have intent to earn community college credentials (no transfer)

•  Data elements –  Demographic, transcript, aid, credential info up to summer of 2010 –  National student clearinghouse (NSC) data up to Feb 2012 –  Quarterly earnings (2010$) from Unemployment Insurance record between 1996 to

first quarter of 2012

•  Limitations –  Short follow up –  1 cohort eligible for the YRP (after the recession)

Data


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Enrolled in 06,07,08 Enrolled in 09 Full-time Part-time Full-time Part-time

Observation 7908 8183 5434 5073

Female 69% 70% 63% 65% Black 34% 46% 33% 48% Hispanic 3% 3% 4% 4% Other races 8% 9% 7% 7% Age at enrollment 25 26 27 26 Zero Expected Family Contribution 57% 61% 62% 71% Pell amount in term 1 1,918 1,578 2,347 1,939 EFC in term 1 942 757 874 587 GPA term 1 3.09 2.08 3.13 1.98 Credits earned term 1 14 6 13 6 Enrolled first summer 29% 15% 41% 17% Credits enrolled first summer 2 1 3 1 Earned over 6 credits in summer 15% 4% 25% 7%

Ever employed 1 year prior to college 73% 77% 67% 69%

Earnings if employed 1 year prior 6,576 7,632 6,520 6,662

Summary Statistics


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Enrolled in 06,07,08 Enrolled in 09 Full-time Part-time Full-time Part-time

Observation 7908 8183 5434 5073

Female 69% 70% 63% 65% Black 34% 46% 33% 48% Hispanic 3% 3% 4% 4% Other races 8% 9% 7% 7% Age at enrollment 25 26 27 26 Zero Expected Family Contribution 57% 61% 62% 71% Pell amount in term 1 1,918 1,578 2,347 1,939 EFC in term 1 942 757 874 587 GPA term 1 3.09 2.08 3.13 1.98 Credits earned term 1 14 6 13 6 Enrolled first summer 29% 15% 41% 17% Credits enrolled first summer 2 1 3 1 Earned over 6 credits in summer 15% 4% 25% 7%

Ever employed 1 year prior to college 73% 77% 67% 69%

Earnings if employed 1 year prior 6,576 7,632 6,520 6,662

Summary Statistics


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Statistics Among YRP Recipients

14.1 14.5

8.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Fall Spring Summer

Credits Earned

71% earned over 6 credits in the summer

$2,315 $2,320

$1,529

Fall Spring Summer

Pell Amount


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Note. The x-axis shows the difference between the expected family contribution and the maximum Pell Grant.


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Note. The x-axis shows the difference between the expected family contribution and the maximum Pell Grant.


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Results

Pre-summer, summer, and 2nd & 3rd year outcomes Academic outcomes

Enrollment and credits

Financial aid

Degree attainment

Employment outcomes


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Outcomes Post*Full-time SE 1. Pell amount in summer 249*** [9]

2. Took classes in Summer 0.070*** [0.007]

3. Credits Earned in Summer 0.583*** [0.049]

4. Earned over 6 credits in Summer 0.047*** [0.005]

5. Transfer to a 4y institution -0.18*** [0.006]

Academic Outcomes in the 1st Summer


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Outcomes Post*Full-time SE 1. Earned Certificate in 2.5 year 0.003 [0.003] 2. Earned Diploma in 2.5 years 0.004* [0.002]

3. Earned Associate in 2.5 years 0.002 [0.003]

Degree Attainment


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Outcomes Post*Full-time SE

1. Credits Earned in Fall -0.000*** [0.000]

2. Credits Earned in the Spring -0.001 [0.086]

3. Credits Earned in Summer 0.583*** [0.049]

Credit in the 1st academic year


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Outcomes Post*Full-time S.E.

1. Loan in the Fall 138*** [9]

2. Loan in the Spring 11 [12]

3. Loan in the Summer -0 [5]

4. State grant in the Fall 147*** [13]

5. State grant in the Spring -146*** [8]

6. State grant in the Summer -1 [1]

7. Institutional grant in the Fall -8** [3]

8. Institutional grant in the spring -10*** [3]

9. Institutional grant in the Summer -2*** [1]

Financial Aid Crowding Out Effects


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Outcomes Post*Full-time S.E. Probability of Employment

1. Fall 0.030*** [0.009] 2. Spring 0.012 [0.009] 3. Summer -0.000 [0.009]

Earnings (unconditional on employment)

4. Fall 144*** [38] 5. Spring 185*** [70] 6. Summer 44 [41]

Labor Market Outcomes in the 1st Year


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Outcomes Post*Full-time S.E. Probability of Employment

1. 1st year 0.011 [0.008] 2. 2nd year 0.001 [0.008] 3. 3rd year -0.005 [0.008]


4. 1st year 366*** [135] 5. 2nd year 292* [175] 6. 3rd year 500*** [124]

Labor Market Outcomes Within 1-3 Years


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Subgroup Analysis

Certificate Enrollees By Age


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Outcomes All Cert. enrollees SE

1. Pell amount in summer 249*** 326*** [14]

2. Took classes in the summer 0.070*** 0.091*** [0.010] 3. Credits Earned in Summer 0.583*** 0.766*** [0.073]

4. Earned Certificate in 2.5 year 0.003 0.007* [0.005]

5. Earned Associate in 2.5 years 0.002 0.009** [0.004]

6. Ever transfer to a 4 year institution -0.18*** -0.004 [0.007]

Subgroup analysis: Certificate Enrollees


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Subgroup analysis: Certificate Enrollees

Outcomes All Cert.

enrollees S.E.

Probability of Employment

1. 1st year 0.011 0.003 [0.011]

2. 2nd year 0.001 -0.000 [0.011]

3. 3rd year -0.005 0.005 [0.011]


4. 1st year 366* 266 [192]

5. 2nd year 292* 184 [225]

6. 3rd year 500*** 584** [174]


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Subgroup analysis by Age at Enrollment

Outcomes Enroll Age≥25 Enroll Age<25

1. Pell amount in summer 429*** 183***

2. Took class in the summer 0.114*** 0.047*** 3. Credits Earned in Summer 0.966*** 0.381*** 4. Earned Certificate in 1 year 0.005 0.001 5. Earned Associate in 2.5 years 0.013** -0.004


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Subgroup analysis by Age at Enrollment

Outcomes Enroll Age≥25 Enroll Age<25

Probability of Employment

1. 1st year 0.031** 0.008

2. 2nd year 0.033** -0.008

3. 3rd year 0.028* -0.017*


4. 1st year 547* 426***

5. 2nd year 1,346*** -10

6. 3rd year 2,062*** -223*


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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER Impact of Year-round Pell Grants /Feb 15, 2019 COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER

Robustness Check


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Event Study Plots


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06 07 08 09 06 07 08 09 06 07 08 09

Assumption met, strong effect

Assumption met, no effect

Assumption not met


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Event Study Plots Results

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2006 2007 2008 2009

Pell amount in first summer

Coefficient on Full-time*Post 2009

Lower CI

Upper CI

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

2006 2007 2008 2009

Ever Enrolled in Summer


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Prior enrollment earnings

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2007 2008 2009

1 year prior to enrollment

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2007 2008 2009

2 years after enrollment


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•  Tuition continues to rise, important to help students graduate faster –  Especially for nontraditional students with higher credits constraints

•  The effects of YRP eligibility –  each $1,000 àsummer enrollment by 28 % pts and AA completion rate by 2.4 % pts –  Small evidence of crowding effect of institutional aids

•  Sub-group analysis –  Stronger effect for certificate students –  Older students experience larger gains

•  Limitation •  Short follow up and only 1 cohort

Conclusions


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•  Policy implications –  Financial incentive works –  1st round of YRP

•  Small take up rate •  Exacerbate excess credits

–  What about the second round of YRP in 2017-2018?

Conclusions


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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER Impact of Year-round Pell Grants /Feb 15, 2019 COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER

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or

http://ccrc.tc.columbia.edu/person/vivian-yuen-ting-liu.html

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I am also on Twitter (@vivianytl). Community College Research Center Teachers College, Columbia University 525 West 120th Street, Box 174, New York, NY 10027 E-mail: [email protected] Telephone: 212.678.3091

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Documents

Is School is Out for the summer? - The City University of ... · – Demographic, transcript, aid, credential info up to summer of 2010 – National student clearinghouse (NSC) data