Upload
jocelin-sanders
View
216
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Is the current form of Higher Education in the UK viable? Developing a resilient
education.
Richard Hall ([email protected], @hallymk1)Joss Winn ([email protected], @josswinn)
a slice of HE• 166 HEIs and 116 universities.• 2007/8: participation for 18-30 years-old = 43%.• 2008/9: 251,300 international students, EU = 117,660.• Universities employ over 372,400 staff, or 1.2% of UK
workforce.• Responsible for 353,900 jobs in other parts of the
economy.• UK HE generates over £59bn of output for the UK
economy, including export earnings of £5.3bn.
[UUK, 2010]
disruption beyond HE
There is a strong correlation between energy use and GDP. Global energy demand is on the rise yet oil supply is forecast to decline in the next few years. There is no precedent for oil discoveries to make up for the shortfall, nor is there a precedent for efficiencies to relieve demand on this scale. Public sector debt is a burden that ultimately requires economic growth to pay it off. Energy supply looks likely to constrain growth.
Global emissions currently exceed the IPCC 'marker' scenario range. The Climate Change Act 2008 has made the -80%/2050 target law, yet this requires a national mobilisation akin to war-time. Probably impossible but could radically change the direction of HE in terms of skills required and spending available.
I = P x A x TThe impact of human activities (I) is determined by the overall
population (P), the level of affluence (A) and the level of technology (T).
8
Even as the efficiency of technology improves, affluence and population scale up the impacts.
We are energy efficient!
“Energy efficiency improvement was an important phenomenon in the global energy balance over the past 30 years. Without energy efficiency improvements, the OECD nations would have used approximately 49% more energy than was actually consumed as of 1998.”
10
Small print: Nevertheless, OECD energy use continues to rise. In 2000 it was 39% higher than in 1973.
In a business-as-usual scenario, global energy demand is forecast to rise by 40% by 2030. Fossil fuels account for over 75% of supply.
16
(You can't run a consumer society on renewable energy)
Net Energy/Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROIE)
17
A 'Steady State' economy: is this capitalism?
New meanings and measures of success Limits on materials, energy, wastes and land use? More meaningful prices More durable, reparable goods Fewer status goods More informative advertising Better screening of technology More efficient capital stock More local, less global Reduced inequality Less work, more leisure Education for life, not just work
Source: http://managingwithoutgrowth.comSee also: Steady State Economy FAQhttp://www.steadystate.org/CASSEFAQs.html
Some possible outcomes in the next 10-20 years?
From 2014, emergency investments required in new energy sources as oil declines and existing power stations decommissioned. We can't afford it. Significant increase in cost of energy = Increase in cost of living. Problem with global food supplies.
Increased reference to 'war on climate change‘; GDP mobilised for this 'war‘. IPCC 2014 report worse than 2007. UK Climate Change Act 2008 trashed. Shift from mitigation to adaptation efforts. Decrease/suspension of democracy. Increase in resource wars drains public funds. De-growth in developed countries. Decline to state of developing countries. 2007-8 = 'peak' of public spending on education. Contraction in HE sector (real estate/staff/students). “Uneconomic.” Growth in informal and/or non-institutional education. Increased spending on STEM at cost of all else. Unfailing faith in technology. We might be happier.
disruption within HE
• Power and control: formal and informal education; critical pedagogy; co-production
• Neoliberalism: examples of resistance; co-governance
• Techno-determinism: will the boffins really save us?
resilience
Rob Hopkins: Transition Culture
“the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganise while undergoing change, so as to retain essentially the same function, structure, identity and feedbacks”
Systemic diversity, modularity, feedback
action
we have a choice between reliance on government and its resources, and its approach to command and control, or developing an empowering day-to-day community resilience. Such resilience develops engagement, education, empowerment and encouragement
Political action or civil action? [DEMOS, nef]
Towards a curriculum for resilience?
• Complexity and increasing uncertainty in the world demands resilience
• Integrated and social, rather than a subject-driven• Engaging with uncertainty through projects that involve
diverse voices in civil action• Discourses of power – co-governance?• Authentic partnerships, mentoring and enquiry, in
method, context, interpretation and action
Does higher education enable C21st society to address disruption?
What should be done?
Resilience: what do we value?