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BUT Hubbert “analysis” is only curve fitting , no predictive power , only appeal to precedent. Not science!. Is there a physical model of oil depletion? Yes!. First simplification: separate discovery from extraction. Model of Oil Production. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Is there a physical model of oil depletion?
Yes!First simplification: separate discovery from
extraction
BUT Hubbert “analysis” is only curve fitting, no predictive power, only appeal to precedent.Not science!
Model of Oil ProductionField discovery is dispersed by fallow delay until infrastructure is built then full production
This plot adds a fewmore steps
We model these intervals as distributionsover the historical range:
(Vertical axis is volume of oil in this state)
The process progresses as if the original discovery is shifted in time & smeared out …
Same area
Stateof theoil
Smoothing spreads a distribution
Two distributions, one is viewed thru awindow that is slid over other to form weighted average output.
Their instantaneous product (= area) is plotted as line, smoothing (spreading) the original distribution.Pattern of oil discovery, smoothed
Dispersed Delay on Campus
This is what eachdelay looks like.
Triple smoothingleads to last
Field discovery “back-dated” to yr of initial discovery then dispersed gives D(t). But actually several yrs to reach full operation: fallow delay then buildup infrastructure then full production
Apply triple time-smoothing to discoveries D(t)/
23( )( ) ( )
(3)Best fit to data when =3 yrs
bfallow
t
matu ld ui reh eh D t th D t
Each smoothes D(t) more, with long tail.
So much for discovery, what maps it to production?
Simply multiply by extraction rate E(t)Extraction rate
<- to map discoveries to production
uncontrolled
TexasRailroadCommissionto conserveOil during WW II
Opec
China
Dynamics of recent oil productionseem to be very simple:
Petro engineers extract 2-3.5% of what’s left annually
Discoveries
A random generated example
production
discovery
Increasing fraction of oil recovered barely shifts the peak right
A physical model makes testable predictions & gives uncertainties
Work in progress by Foucher (Logi Energy, NYC)
Official IEA 2010
?
Field-by-field depletion would tell us the whole PO story
That governments have not demanded these data from ME NOCs is telling Numbers provided are suspiciously unchanged yr to yr
no published contingency plans for oil shortages
US strategic petroleum reserve = 44 days of 2012 full crude oil, then rationing We remain very vulnerable to “oil shock” supply disruptions,
especially refinery sabotage/damage
CoalLand plants