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ISI-MIP CGE workshop
Potsdam, 19 Sep 2013
Experience from AgMIP and next steps
Dr. Hermann Lotze-Campen
Hermann Lotze-Campen Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
19 Sep 2013
2
Climate impacts on maize yields in 2045(without CO2 effekc)
Müller et al., Ag.Econ. 2013, in press
Hermann Lotze-Campen Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
19 Sep 2013
3
Climate induced changes in agricultural prices by 2045
Von Lampe et al., Ag.Econ. 2013, in press
Hermann Lotze-Campen Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
19 Sep 2013
4
Issues to be clarified (or harmonized?)
Hermann Lotze-Campen Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
19 Sep 2013
5
Next steps
• Harmonized CGE comparison?
• Minimum setting for a multi-sector economic impact comparison?
• Start: Integrate 2-3 sectors (agriculture, water, (SLR))?
• No adaptation, present conditions, only initial market adjustment/crop switching?
• Regional and sectoral aggregation?
• Pre-select from impact models vs. Sampling from all model outputs?
• "Average" damage functions vs. Specific function per impact model?
• ENVISAGE: Second generation of damage functions, based on ISI-MIP data
• Reconcile with ICIS, GEM-E3?
• Timeline, next steps:
• Define regions/sectors; create baseline SSP2 (cf. AgMIP); translate impacts
• Telecon/Skype: second half of November
• Resources?