ISO OutlookSummer 2005 and Beyond

Senate Energy, Utilities and Communications Committee

February 22, 2005

Jim DetmersVice President of Grid Operations

RRC/OE&M 2 2/16/05

OVERVIEW

• ISO: Who we are, functions

• Summer 2004 Conditions

• ISO Focus and Activities, 2005

• ISO Procedures for Balancing Loads and Resources

• Conclusion

RRC/OE&M 3 2/16/05

California ISOCalifornia ISO 501c(3) nonprofit corp., created by state

statue & regulated by FERC 5 member board appointed by the

Governor and confirmed by Senate One of 3 Western Electricity Coordinating

Council Reliability Coordinators (WECC) in the West

Functions: Operate the High Voltage Grid for 75% of

California in a safe and reliable manner Created to provide open &

nondiscriminatory access to transmission grid

Maintain grid reliability by matching supply & demand in real time & meet WECC mandated power reserves

Recommend appropriate grid upgrades Schedule & coordinate power plant &

transmission lines coming out of service for maintenance

RRC/OE&M 4 2/16/05

California ISO—Other Functions

• Prepare annual grid plans w/10-year outlook on ISO controlled grid

• ISO does not acquire long-term resources; we direct transmission and adjust flow of power in real time for balancing purposes

• Supports Intermittent Resource Program accommodate wind and solar power into our ancillary services markets (serves as national model according to wind industry)

RRC/OE&M 5 2/16/05

Record Loads Summer 2004 7 record setting days in 2004:

July 19 44,042 MW July 20 44,330 MW July 21 44,360 MW August 10 44,497 MW August 11 44,872 MW September 7 45,165 MW September 8 45,597 MW

We hit loads in 2004 that were not forecasted until 2005 and the State did not have exceptionally high temperatures!

The previous record peak demand of 43,609 MW, set July 1999, stood for four years. (SMUD load subtracted from this total)

RRC/OE&M 6 2/16/05

Summer 2004 In spite of moderate temperatures, CAISO set a new

system peak of 45,597 MW on September 8, 2004. At the time of system peak, reserves were not

distributed throughout the system. Joint Energy Action Forum (JEAF) has developed

estimated load and resource picture for 2005. JEAF includes: CAISO, CEC, CPUC, Governor’s

Office. JEAF is looking at expedited solutions to help address

the Summer 2005 problem.

RRC/OE&M 7 2/16/05

ISO Focus

• ISO continually monitors system conditions and prepares actions:– Operational Forecast of Loads and

Resources– Transmission Upgrades– Demand Response– Emergency Procedures– Communication

RRC/OE&M 8 2/16/05

Load and Resource Forecasts• ISO Seasonal Operational Assessment

– ISO Summer 2005 Operational Assessment presently in development; to be published 3/31/05.

– Builds from CEC’s Planning Assessment, fine tunes assumptions for: load growth, changes in Control Area definition (WAPA/SMUD), economic factors, updates in generation/transmission.

– considers potential adverse conditions.

• Generation Assumptions:– Retirements refined based on “Request For Offer”

outcomes, air emissions, and unit age. – Additions refined based on “Request For Offer” contract

outcomes, construction progress.

RRC/OE&M 9 2/16/05

Transmission Upgrades

• Key Southern California Paths for 2005 include “Path 26”, “South of Lugo”, “Miguel”.

• ISO monitors and supports construction progress on transmission upgrades.

• Complete operational studies, determine new Path ratings.

RRC/OE&M 10 2/16/05

Emergency Preparedness• Promote Demand Response

– Voluntary Load Reduction Programs– Encourage Energy Conservation, “Power Watch”– Promote “Alerts-Warnings-Emergency” education

and drills, both internally and externally

• Operator Emergency Preparedness– Update Procedures– Provide operator analysis tools– Conduct training, drills

RRC/OE&M 11 2/16/05

Issue Stage Two news release Invoke UDC Interruptible Load Programs

Issue Stage Three news release Issue Notice of Load Interruptions Instruct utilities to implement rotating outages

Stages of Electrical Emergencies*

Generating reserves less than requirements(Continuously recalculated. Between 6% & 7%)

Issue Stage One news release calling for conservation

Coordinate with public safety agencies

Generating reserves less than 5%

Generating reserves less than largest contingency(Continuously recalculated. Between 1.5% & 3%)

Generating Reserves7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

Stage OneEmergencyStage OneEmergency

Stage Two

Emergency

Stage Two

Emergency

Stage Three

Emergency

Stage Three

Emergency

*Many emergencies are due to operating reserve levels, however, some emergencies are declared as a result of transmission line losses or limitations.

VLRPTriggered

VLRPTriggered

Voluntary commercial customers reduce electricity use. Provides advance notice to businesses that power reserves are low

and that business operations could be affected.

Voluntary Load Reduction Program

Log into www.caiso.com for the California ISO’s latest emergency information

Electrical Emergency CommunicationsElectrical Emergency Communicationsand Voluntary Load Reduction Programand Voluntary Load Reduction Program

RRC/OE&M 12 2/16/05

ISO Procedures for Balancing Loads and Resources

• ISO Coordinates proposed outages of major generation and transmission facilities up to 15 months in advance.

• The industry must submit reasonable, accurate, and balanced schedules for Loads and Resources.

• In Day-Ahead timeframe, ISO compares schedules with ISO forecast.

• In Real-Time, ISO monitors and balances Load and Resources every 5 minutes. ISO seeks to fill any anticipated shortfall with supplemental (Spot market) energy.

• If reserves diminish in Real-Time, seek to reduce demand through alerts, warnings, emergencies. (Voluntary load reduction to rotating outages).

RRC/OE&M 13 2/16/05

Conclusion• Moderate amount of risk associated

with Summer 2005 operation of the Grid.

• ISO focused in monitoring system conditions, emergency preparedness, and communication.

• Problems expected to worsen in 2006; those mitigation efforts should begin now.