ISSN # 2414 Parliamentary Research Digest · Parliamentary Research Digest V O L U M E 4 , I S S U E 1 1 N O V E M B E R , 2 0 1 7 INSIDE THIS ISSUE: Editorial Water and air are pivotal

Parliamentary Research Digest N O V E M B E R , 2 0 1 7 V O L U M E 4 , I S S U E 1 1

I N SI DE THI S

I SSU E: Editorial

Water and air are pivotal for life on which the entire earthly ecosystem rests, sustains and pros-pers. Due to deforestation, depletion of natural water sources by increased population and deg-radation of environment through industrial and agricultural emissions, maintenance of air and water quality and quantity remains one of the major challenges for all societies. It is life-line to not only meet the ever increasing demand for irrigation purposes and production of hydel-power but it is imperative to devise an equitable and sustainable mechanism for conservation and distribution of precious water resources for coming generations. Pakistan is 15th most water-scarce country with less than 1,000 cubic meters of water per capita per annum. Accordingly, this November, 2017 issue of PIPS Parliamentary Research Digest focuses on core theme of concern i.e water sector, air quality and energy sector development. An article on Pakistan’s water sector and role of Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) is included in addition to an analytical piece on Clean Air Challenge. The Digest also presents text of the unanimous resolution passed by the Senate of Pakistan on 27th October 2017, to remember and condemn the Black day of 27th Oct., 1947, when Indian troops forcibly made illegitimate occupation of Indian held Kashmir. It reiterates that the United Nations and international actors must take due affirmative action to resolve the grave dispute. For any specific areas of importance that you want PIPS to send you research or briefing pa-pers, contact us at [email protected]. Happy Reading!

Muhammad Rashid Mafzool Zaka

Director (Research and I.T)

A

NALYSIS

Pakistan’s Water

Sector and Role of

WAPDA: A Review

Page 01

Clean Air

Challenge

Page 07

PARLIAMENTARY

BUSINESS

Resolution on

Kashmir as Passed

by Senate of Pakistan

Page 12

OPINION

Energy Sector

Development

Page 13

Editorial Board

Editor:

Muhammad

Rashid Mafzool

Zaka

Sub Editor:

Ms. Tehseen

Khalid

Members:

Ms.Fakiha

Mehmood

Mr.Rizwan

Manzoor

ISSN # 2414-8040

Honorable Ms. Marriyum Aurangzeb, Minister of State for Information, Broadcasting and Na-tional Heritage, Honorable Ms. Raheela Hameed Durrani, Speaker Provincial Assembly of Balo-chistan, Honorable Mr. Fida Muhammad Nashad, Speaker Legislative Assembly of Gilgit Bal-tistan and MPs from all over Pakistan at SDGs Data Book Launch during the National Parliamen-tary Roundtable on SDGs at Pakistan Institute for Parliamentary Services on November 02-03, 2017.

mailto:[email protected]

Thursday, November 16, 2017: Absorbing Ground breaking session of Leader of the House

in National Assembly/the Honourable Prime Minister of Islamic Republic of Pakistan Mr

Shahid Khaqan Abbasi with 31 member delegation of faculty and students from School of

Politics and International Relations, Quaid e Azam University, Islamabad, at the PM

Secretariat, organized by the National Assembly’s Young Parliamentarians Forum (YPF)

and the Pakistan Institute for Parliamentary Services (PIPS) The one hour meeting with the

Prime Minister on Role of Parliament and Issues of National Importance commenced the PM’s

Youth Connect Programme, a new initiative aimed at raising awareness among future leaders about

Statehood and Parliamentary Democracy. Ms Shaza Fatima Khawaja, MNA and General Secretary,

YPF, is the coordinator for the programme who briefed the students’ delegation about functions of

the Parliament and difference between role and responsibilities of legislature and executive. The

briefing was followed by visit of the Cabinet Hall and a one hour candid Qs and Answers session

with the elected Prime Minister of Pakistan.

PIPS is working with the Young Parliamentary Forum, an all party caucus of young Members of

Parliament to engage with the youth on strengthening the culture of tolerance, peace and harmony

among all strata of society and contribute towards society’s evolution as a pluralistic happy

democracy that offers emancipation for all citizens as envisioned by the father of the Nation, Quaid

e Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah. Dr Nazir Hussain, Director, School of Politics and IR, QAU,

thanked the Prime Minister and lauded his candid replies to students who asked comprehensive

questions on working of Parliament, challenges to Pakistan including need for strengthening

Constitutionalism, threats to economy, development agenda, CPEC, Climate Change and PM’s

experience as a seasoned elected representative of the masses. Mr Muhammad Rashid Mafzool Zaka,

Director, Research and IT, PIPS presented a set of PIPS publications to the Honourable Prime

Minister Mr Shahid Khaqan Abbasi and a vote of thanks was offered by MNA Ms Shaza Fatima

Khawaja.

Pakistan Institute for Parliamentary Services 2017

PIPS Parliamentary Research Digest- Volume: 4, Issue: 11 Page 1

ANALYSIS

Pakistan’s Water Sector and Role of WAPDA: A Review

Ms. Zonia Baltistani Young Parliamentary Subject Expert, PIPS

Introduction: Water is the primary source of life on earth and has played a central role in the rise and decline of even the earliest of civilizations. Today, the significance of water surpasses that of oil. A vital resource, it poses to impact the world powers, especially in Asia, much in the same way as oil did in the last century. Water is closely tied to food, energy and climate change and has been deemed an economic issue. However, with its growing scarcity throughout the globe, experts have begun considering it as a critical security issue. There are four widely used terms in international discourse on water: water shortage, water stress, water scarcity and water insecurity. In order to better understand where a region or a country stands in relation to this crisis, it is important to differentiate between these terms. A country is facing a water shortage if it has 3000 cubic meters of water per capita per annum; water stressed is when a country has 1700 cubic meters of water per capita per annum; water scarcity is less than 1000 and water insecurity is less than 500 cubic meters per capita per annum. The depleting water availability throughout the world is a growing concern. Only 3% of the water around the globe is fresh water, the rest being saline. Of this 3%, 70% is locked in glaciers, 29% is found underground and 1% is found in lakes and rivers. Table 1 depicts the estimated water availability of the continents in the world. Table 1: Estimated Water Availability of the Continents: 1

Continent Per Square Kilometer of

Territory

Thousands of cubic meters per

capita

Share of Freshwater

in %age

%age of Total World Population

Europe 277 4.24 8% 11.3%

North America 324 17.40 15% 7.3%

Africa 134 5.72 10% 14%

Asia 311 3.92 36% 60.5%

South America 672 38.30 26% 6.4%

Oceania 268 83.60 5% 0.5%

The table illustrates that Asia’s per capita fresh water availability is less than half of the global average. South Asia remains even more vulnerable with its growing economies, rising expenditure of nuclear capable militaries, massive population, poverty and unresolved territorial issues which can be deemed as flashpoints for water wars. The situation of Pakistan is even more acute within South Asia. Pakistan is amongst the 15th most water scarce countries in the world according to IMF and has the fourth highest water use rate in the world, the lowest storage capacity in the world with the most water intensive agriculture system in the world and minimum production value of agriculture. Moreover, we only treat 2% of the water from effluent and sewerage. The whole world has about 35000 million acre feet water available to be used and the world average is more than 6000 cubic meters per person. For South Asia, the average comes down to about a

1http://slideplayer.com/slide/7081604/24/images/32/WATER%E2%80%99S+AVAILABILITY+Comparison+of+po

pulation+sizes+and+shares+of+the+world%E2%80%99s+freshwater+among+the+continents..jpg , browsed on Nov 27, 2017.

http://slideplayer.com/slide/7081604/24/images/32/WATER%E2%80%99S+AVAILABILITY+Comparison+of+population+sizes+and+shares+of+the+world%E2%80%99s+freshwater+among+the+continents..jpg

http://slideplayer.com/slide/7081604/24/images/32/WATER%E2%80%99S+AVAILABILITY+Comparison+of+population+sizes+and+shares+of+the+world%E2%80%99s+freshwater+among+the+continents..jpg



1000, and for Pakistan it is 908 cubic meters per capita per annum. This average used to be 5000 cubic meters per capita in the 1950s and has drastically depleted ever since. Pakistan’s insufficient carry over capacity, which is only 30 days, further aggravates the complication of the crisis. Keeping the grave situation of water availability in mind, this paper provides an overview of Pakistan’s Water Sector, its current status, history and the role WAPDA has played in its development. Pakistan’s Water Sector: Overview: Pakistan is geographically divided into areas that are confronted by various levels of water scarcity. 30% of the area faces no stress where as 22% faces water stress, 8% is water scarce and 40% is faced with water insecurity. The country primarily receives its freshwater supply from two sources: rain, that contributes 25-35% of water and snow/glaciers that contribute 65-75% of the total water supply. Moreover, Pakistan has 166.6 million acre feet of surface flows which come from the Indus Basin, hill torrents and civil canals, and 50 million acre feet of ground water extraction. The availability of this water is not evenly distributed throughout the year. 80% of the water is available for 100 days (from May to September) whereas 20% of the water availability is distributed over 265 days. Furthermore, water consumption patterns are even more troubling for Pakistan. While the world average stands at 70%, Pakistan consumes 94% of its water for the purpose of agriculture. The rest is divided between domestic and industrial use. Pakistan also faces a lot of water loss; 50% of the water available is lost due to population growth, evaporation, poor agricultural practices and un-lined canals. Groundwater extraction is taking place at an alarming rate; 44 million acre feet water is being extracted from the ground. The installation and uses of tube wells has increased by 11 fold. This means that groundwater extraction is taking place at a much faster rate than groundwater recharging. The situation is even more alarming in saline zones where sweet and saline water mixing causes even more wastage of water. Due to factors such as sedimentation, the storage capacity of Pakistan’s three major water storages, Tarbela, Mangla and Chasma reservoirs, have also depleted over the years. The following table provides details of the lost storage capacity over the years in these reservoirs. Table 2: Storage loss in reservoirs in Pakistan over the years:2

Reservoir Live Storage Capacity Storage Loss

Original Year 2017 Year 2017

Tarbela 9.692 6.17 3.52 (36%)

Mangla 5.86 8.237 7.40 0.83 (10%)

Chasma 0.717 0.29 0.43 (60%)

Total 16.269 18.646 13.86 4.78 (25%)

Climate change and its impacts also play a role in the worsening of Pakistan’s water situation. Climate change has been mainstreamed as a mere buzzword and concrete affirmative actions to tackle its lingering effects have not been made along the lines of prevention and building resilience. During the last century, Pakistan’s overall temperature has increased by 0.6 degrees Celsius. This has resulted in unsteady climatic patterns and extreme recurring natural disasters; Pakistan has been alternating between floods and droughts. Between 1998 and 2002, Pakistan witnessed one of the worst droughts in its history. Since 2010 Pakistan has faced extreme recurrent floods in all four of its provinces: 2010, 2011 and 2012 in Sindh, 2013 in Balochistan and 2014 in Punjab. The 2010 floods, especially the situation in Nowshera, were rated by the United Nations as the “greatest humanitarian crisis in recent history.” Another contributing factor to the crisis is water pollution. Pakistan is the lowest in the world, treating only 2% of its affluent and sewerage water. Untreated water includes chemicals, fertilizers, pesticides, hospital as well as industrial wastes and leachate from unplanned landfills (open dumps) which contaminates fresh water as well as ground water. This indicates that a majority of the water being consumed is contaminated and of poor quality.

2 Presentation by Chairman WAPDA at PIPS, 2017



All in all, Pakistan’s water sector is being confronted by various challenges. With its increasing population, depleting levels of aquifer, deteriorating quality of aquifer, lack of regulation on ground water extraction, limited storage capacity, highly water intensive agricultural sector and low productivity of water, the condition of the water sector remains bleak and requires serious prioritizing by the authorities. The following paragraphs will discuss the key legal developments which have impacted the water sector of Pakistan since independence. Indus Water Treaty: The Indus Water Treaty is a water distribution treaty between Pakistan and India. The treaty was negotiated by the World Bank and gave control of the three eastern rivers (Beas, Ravi and Sutlej) to India and the control of the three western rivers (Indus, Chenab and Jhelum) to Pakistan. The River Indus starts from the Tibetan Plateau and comes down from Indian occupied Kashmir entering Pakistan from Gilgit- Baltistan and goes down to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and Sindh. Whereas Jehlum starts from the Himachal Pradesh, the western part of Jammu, comes down to Punjab through Indian occupied Kashmir and meets Chenab at Trimmu. From Trimmu it goes down to meeting Ravi and then Sutlej. From here it becomes the river Punjanat and goes down South to Sindh. Shortly after independence, the canals in Punjab were closed from the Indian side which triggered the causes that led to the signing of the treaty. This was primarily because the division of land and water in Punjab has not taken into account hydrology and geography, leaving all the water headworks (Ferozepur and Madhopur and Harike) in Indian Punjab. This has triggered a major security threat for Pakistan; hence in 1960 with the facilitation of the World Bank, the terms of the Indus Water Treaty were decided. There are however, some inherent issues with the terms of the treaty. The basic concern when it comes to the terms of the treaty has to do with its political linkages. The Indus Water Treaty is a technical document and does not take into account the volatile political situation which persists between Pakistan and India. The treaty did not include any site demarcation for Pakistan and more so, does not specify how many projects India can construct in Indian occupied Kashmir. The next question is the specification of the environmental flows (which describe the quantity, timing, and quality of water flows required to sustain freshwater). The treaty gives India the right to stop water on the western rivers for the purpose of non-consumptive use: for agriculture, for hydroelectricity and domestic use. However, the treaty does not mention the number of pondages and storages India can construct and what the design of these storages can be. Hence, India can construct any number of pondages and Pakistan cannot object to it. The matter of extreme concern is the amount that they store, for how many days will they store and what will be their timings. For example, if India decides to stop the water for 30 to 40 days in order to fill a dam and those days are directly in synchronization with when Pakistan requires water for plantations, then Pakistan will be in a very risky situation. In this case, Pakistan won’t have water when it requires it the most and will have it when it doesn’t need it. The treaty has given leverage to India. The lack of specifications in the treaty can be manipulated to enhance this leverage by India, enhancing their control over the water against the spirit of the Treaty. Keeping in mind that the treaty was made in 1960, authorities on both sides of the border need to reconsider its terms, analyze their relevance in the current times, see if any part of the treaty has become obsolete and update the terms based on latest international law and issues raised by environmental and ecological sciences. Water Apportionment Accord 1991: In 1991, an agreement to share waters of the Indus River was reached between the four provinces of Pakistan in the form of the Water Apportionment Accord (WAA). This accord is based on both, the existing and future water needs of the four provinces. The inter-provincial dispute on water



distribution was initiated during the construction of two mega irrigation projects, namely: Sutlej Valley Canal Project 1932 and Sukkur Barrage Project 1935. Thereafter the following committees were formed: Anderson Committee of 1937, Rau Commission of 1945, Akhtar Hussain Committee of 1968, Fazal-e-Akbar Committee of 1970, Indus Waters Commission, Anwar-ul-Haq Commission of 1976, Haleem Commission of 1983 and Water Accord of 1991. The Water Apportionment Accord has a total of 14 paragraphs of which 3 address distribution, 6 address development, 3 address escapages and 4 are related to other areas. Under clause 13 of the Accord, the need to establish an Indus River System Authority was recognized and accepted for the implementation of the Accord. The Indus River System Authority was then established, dealing with the storage, release and distribution of water. The Accord allocates the following share to the provinces: (Million Acre Feet) Province Kharif Rabi Total Percentage

Punjab 37.07 18.87 55.94 48.9%

Sindh* 33.94 14.82 48.76 42.6%

Khyber Paktunkhwa

3.48 2.30 5.78 5.1%

Balochistan 2.85 1.02 3.87 3.4%

Total 77.34 37.01 114.35 100%

**Civil Canals 1.80 1.20 3.00

*Including already sanctioned urban and industrial uses of Metropolitan Karachi **Un-gauged civil canals above the Rim Stations

As per the Accord of 1991, the balance river supplies, including flood supplies and future storages will be distributed as show in the table below:

Punjab Sindh Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Balochistan Total

37% 37% 14% 12% 100%

18th Amendment and the 7th NFC Award: The 18th Amendment led to the devolution of 17 ministries, including that of food and agriculture, from the center to the provinces allowing the provinces to formulate policies and projects in these spheres. The 18th Amendment and the 7th NFC Award combined led to enhanced financial space for the provinces. Share of provinces in the federal revenue pool increased from 46% to 57.5 %. It also allowed provinces to impose their own taxes. This has given financial and legal muscle to the provinces enabling them to fund their own projects in agriculture, food, security, irrigation etc. This means provinces now have the legal space to indulge in water related activities, initiate projects to enhance their levels of water security. However, they are faced with severe capacity constraints. They lack mechanism, resources, man power, networks and the required structures. No tangible initiative was taken by the provinces to develop water storages. Inter-provincial discourse over the distribution of water has further aggravated the situation. Moreover, provinces are unwilling to impose any water tax, the revenue from which could be used to build reservoirs. Hence, the essence of the 18th Amendment has not trickled down to the water sector as yet. The Role of WAPDA: Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) was established through an Act of Parliament in 1958. It is an autonomous and statutory body under the administrative control of the Federal Government.3 WAPDA’s mandate is the unified and coordinated development of the water and power resources of the country. Water resources include the building, maintenance and development of: water storages, irrigation canals, drainage, taking measures to tackle water logging

3 WAPDA. 2017. Accessed 27

th September 2017. (http://www.wapda.gov.pk/index.php/about-us/present-

setup-2)



and salinity, Salinity Control and Reclamation (SCARP), tackling water disputes and provision of water for domestic and commercial use. Power resources have to do with hydel power. The following tables provide details of the current situation of Pakistan’s water sector in relation the WAPDA’s projects.

Storage Capacity Available

Project Storage Capacity (MAF)

Tarbela Dam 6.17

Mangla Dam 7.40

Chashma Barrage 0.29

Hub Dam 0.76

Khanpur Dam 0.09

Mirani Dam 0.15

Satpara Dam 0.05

Gomal Zam Dam 0.89

Darawat Dam 0.09

Provinces 2.14

Total 18.03

WAPDA has constructed major water development projects along the Indus Basin including the Mangla and Tarbela Dams, 5 Barrages, 1 Syphon and 8 link canals and 70 SCARP projects though out the provinces. It has also enhanced the levels of power generation, transmission and distribution though out the country. Pakistan was the second country in Asia, after Japan, to have an entire set of grid stations established in the 1960s. WAPDA has also collaborated with various foreign institutions creating opportunities for foreign expertise to contribute in the construction and maintenance of Pakistan’s major water projects. The following table enlists the major projects which have been complete by WAPDA along with their live storage capacities and year of completion: Table 03: Major Projects completed by WAPDA

Project Name Live Storage (MAF) Year of Completion

Baran Dam 0.008 1962

Rawal Dam 0.004 1962

Tanda Dam 0.006 1965

Simly Dam 0.02 1982

Hub Dam 0.76 1983

Khanpur Dam 0.09 1984

LBOD (Stage-I) CCA 1,273,000 Acres 1998

Pehur High Level Canal CCA 101,000 Acres 2002

Mirani Dam 0.302 2007

Sabakzai Dam 0.03 2009

Greater Thal Canal (Phase-1) CCA 355000 Acres 2009

Satpara Dam 0.05 2013

Rainee Canal Project (Phase-II) CCA 113,690 Acres 2014

Gomal Zam Dam 0.89 2014

Darawat Dam 0.09 2014

Water Storage Projects Ready for Construction

Project Live Storage Capacity MAF

Power MW Construction Period (Years)

Diamer Basha Dam 6.4 4500 9

Mohmand Dam 0.68 800 6

Kurram Tangi (Stage II) 0.9 64.5 4

Naulong Dam 0.2 4.4 3

Kalabagh Dam 6.1 3600 6

Total 14.28 8958.9



Other than these, 30 SCARP projects have been completed in Punjab, 20 projects in Sindh, 15 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and 2 in Balochistan. In the past year, WAPDA has also revived and began working on projects which had been trapped in strategic glitches. There are 7 such projects which have been recovered namely; the Kachhi Canal Project in Dera Bugti, the Neelum Jhelum Hydropower Project, the Tarbela 4th extension Hydropower Project, the Golen Gol Hydropower Project, Dasu (Stage I) Hydropower Project and the Keyal Khwar Hydropower Project. These projects not only contribute to enhancing the overall water storage capacity of the country but also make massive contributions to the power supply. There are many other projects in the planning stage which need to be initiated in order to address the growing demand of water and power throughout the country and to ensure that the lesser developed areas also receive their fair share. WAPDA also manages the monitoring of glaciers and flow forecasting of the rivers. It has installed 20 high altitude weather stations around the glaciers and the data is used for monitoring the flow and forecasting of the major rivers. The data reveals that the glaciers in Pakistan have been decreasing every day from 2011 to 2016. A hyrdrological model is also being developed in collaboration with the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Australia to forecast river flows and determine the future availability of water. Way Forward: The wellbeing and economic development of any country is profoundly linked to the availability and usability of water. Little or no water in times of dire need can result in droughts and food insecurity. Likewise, abundance of water in forms of storms and floods can lead to destruction and devastation of an entire population. Pakistan’s drastically changing water profile and the rising population make water related problems one of the most significant problems for the country. Keeping this reality in mind, the following recommendations are made:

i. Devise a holistic National Water Policy: This would include measures to promote efficient use through water pricing, increasing water storage infrastructure, enforcing strict water quality management systems to curb water pollution, controlling population growth and adopting sustainable urbanization patterns.4

ii. Construct water storages: Water storage is a critical need for Pakistan at the given time. Without this mechanism Pakistan will be faced with more floods and droughts in the future.

iii. Adopt High Efficiency Irrigation Systems: Practices which are highly water intensive and are popularly used in our agricultural sector need to be left behind and modern efficient irrigation techniques should be adopted.

iv. Innovative Financial Strategies: An innovative domestic financial model should be developed (perhaps initiating a proper water taxation system) rather than solely depending on international donor organizations.

v. Promote institutional robustness, research and capacity building: Research and innovation remain the key factors to developing long term sustainable solutions to the water crisis.

vi. Project Development Strategy: The government must focus on critical projects first and prioritize the completion of each project based on its circle of influence, productivity and scope.

4 Ignacio Artaza. 2017. “Water Security.” Accessed 27

th September 2017.

(https://www.dawn.com/news/1319986)



ANALYSIS Clean Air Challenge and Way Forward

Nayab Abeer

Young Parliamentary Subject Expert Introduction Air pollution is a mixture of solid particles and gases in the air which represent serious environmental, health, economic and social challenges. Increasing economic development can lead to high levels of pollution and subsequently result in colossal health damage. Air pollution is a rising environmental issue in Pakistan because of inefficient use of energy, enhanced growth in vehicles, inadequate air emission treatment and control operations by industries and open burning of waste. Pakistan was the seventh country among the top 10 countries that were most affected by climate change events during the period of 1996 to 2015 with facing almost 133 climatic events.1 Pakistan is ranked eighth on the list of countries most vulnerable to climate change according to the German watch Global Climate Risk Index. Therefore the issue of air pollution demands utmost attention by the government of Pakistan as it is closely related to climate change and it will ultimately worsen the impacts of climate change. Key technical terminologies used in the context: PM: (Particulate Matter) is the sum of all solid and liquid particles suspended in air many of which are hazardous. This complex mixture includes both organic and inorganic particles, such as dust, pollen, soot, smoke, and liquid droplets. TSP: (Total Suspended Particulate) Tiny airborne particles or aerosols that are less than 100 micrometers are collectively referred to as total suspended particulate matter these particles constantly enter the atmosphere from many sources. SO2: (Sulphur dioxide) it is a toxic gas with a pungent, irritating smell. NO2: (Nitrogen dioxide) it is a reddish-brown gas with a pungent and irritating odor. CO: (Carbon monoxide) it is a colorless, odorless, and tasteless gas that is slightly less dense than air. Heavy metal: Heavy metals (including lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), chromium (Cr) and the metalloid arsenic (As)) are persistent in the environment and have potential for serious health consequences. They have relatively high density and are toxic or poisonous at after a certain limit. µg/m3: microgram per meter cube WHO: World health organization Air Pollution and its impacts Air pollution is contamination of the indoor or outdoor environment by any chemical, physical or biological agent that alters the natural characteristics of the atmosphere. Common sources of air pollution are both natural and anthropogenic including household combustion devices, motor vehicles, industrial facilities and forest fires etc. Pollutants of major public health concern include particulate matter (PM), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). Outdoor and indoor air pollution cause respiratory and other diseases, which can be fatal.2

1 Kreft, Sönke, David Eckstein, and Inga Melchior. Global Climate Risk Index 2017: Who Suffers Most From

Extreme Weather Events? Weather-related Loss Events in 2015 and 1996 to 2015. Germanwatch Nord-Süd Initiative eV, 2016. https://germanwatch.org/de/download/16411.pdf 2 Air pollution, World Health Organization. Accessed from http://www.who.int/topics/air_pollution/en/



Pakistan Environmental Protection Act, 1997 defines air pollutants as; “any substance that causes pollution of air and includes soot, smoke, dust particles, odor, light, electro-magnetic, radiation, heat, fumes, combustion exhaust, exhaust gases, noxious gases, hazardous substances and radioactive substances.‟‟3

Figure a: Pyramid of effects. Source: US Environment Protection Agency

Figure (a) describes how the incidence and severity of fine particle and ozone-related health impacts are related. Health outcomes toward the bottom of the pyramid like asthma attacks and cardiac effects are less severe, and affect a larger proportion of the population. Impacts toward the tip of the pyramid like hospital admissions and heart attacks are more severe and affect a smaller proportion of the population. Air Pollution in Pakistan According to a report of the World Bank published in 2014, Pakistan ranked 80 in a list of 122 countries in terms of air quality. Pakistan‟s air pollution is among the most severe in the world causing significant damage to human health and the economy. According to the report, targeted interventions are needed and there is an urgent need to strengthen the institutional and technical capacity of organizations responsible for air quality management. Many cities of Pakistan are heavily polluted and are often listed in world‟s top most polluted cities in terms of air pollution. Air pollution in Pakistan is largely due to vehicular emissions, emissions by small and medium size industrial plants and inadequate management of waste and open burning of agricultural residues. Most Pakistani cities do not have adequate air quality monitoring facilities therefore latest data is not available and quality research is deficient. Only few researches are conducted on air pollution of Pakistan and they too are carried out on in limited areas.

3 Pakistan Environmental Protection Act, 1997. Accessed from http://www.environment.gov.pk/act-

rules/envprotact1997.pdf



Research carried out from 1992 to 2010 indicated that exposure to PM2.5 and O3 created most severe economic damages whereas the health impacts of Particulate Matter were more significant.4 A study carried out in 2007 showed that urban concentrations of PM10 frequently exceeded 200 micrograms per cubic meter (µg/m3) which is more than the World Health Organization (WHO) target of 70 µg/m3.5 Study conducted by in 2010 indicated that in urban centers, CO levels exceeded the WHO guidelines during the day but the damage caused by CO was less significant than PM 2.5.6 The average levels of PM10 measured with a mobile monitoring laboratory in 2003 at the Sindh Industrial Trading Estate and Korangi Industrial Area (Karachi) were 176.5 and 147.2μg/m.3 The Pakistan Environment Protection Agency (Pak-EPA) in collaboration with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) carried out studies on air quality in various cities of Pakistan. A 2001 report (Pak-EPA/JICA 2001) described air quality measurements in Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Islamabad. It stated that highest hourly average levels of Suspended PM were in Lahore (895µg/m3) followed by Rawalpindi (709µg/m3) and then Islamabad (520µg/m3). Investigations in Gujranwala and Faisalabad showed that TSP (24 average) peaked at 5190µg/m3 and 3,477µg/m3, respectively. Similarly, a study conducted in 2005-2006 measured PM concentrations in four cities and concluded that levels of Suspended PM in Gujranwala (53–649µg/m3), Faisalabad (111–435µg/m3), Rawalpindi (845–1,870μg/m3), and Lahore (1,128–1,870μg/m3) were exceedingly unhealthy.7 Challenges faced by Pakistan Pakistan is facing many challenges which hamper with its environmental quality. Few of the challenges are summed up here: i. Lack of monitoring devices: Lack of sufficient monitoring devices to regularly record

data of environmental parameters of air, soil and water. ii. Insufficient research: Lack of reliable research on the quality of air, water and soil on a

massive scale, no latest quality data is available. iii. Increasing disease ratio: New diseases are emerging and dispersing rapidly with less

ability to adapt. More population is exposed to lethal diseases. iv. Increasing Population: Population growth is leading to air, water and soil quality

deterioration accompanied by habitat loss and ecosystem disruption. v. Vulnerable to climate change: Pakistan is ranked eighth on the list of countries most

vulnerable to climate change due to its location and economic condition. vi. Stressed Economy: Economy of Pakistan is under stress due to which less consideration

is given to environmental conservation and rehabilitation.

4 World Health Organization. "The world health report: 2006: working together for health." (2006).

5 Ghauri, Badar, Arifa Lodhi, and M. Mansha. "Development of baseline (air quality) data in Pakistan."

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 127, no. 1 (2007): 237-252. Accessed from https://www.researchgate.net/profile/BM_Ghauri/publication/6738028_Development_of_baseline_air_quality_data_in_Pakistan/links/5562b06508ae86c06b65f564.pdf 6 Colbeck, Ian, Zaheer Ahmad Nasir, and Zulfiqar Ali. "The state of ambient air quality in Pakistan—a review."

Environmental Science and Pollution Research 17, no. 1 (2010): 49-63. Acessed from http://repository.essex.ac.uk/792/1/Air-quality-Pakistan.pdf 7 Waheed, S., A. Rahman, M. Daud, S. Rahman, Z. Islam, and S. Ahmad. "Air quality evaluation of some

industrial cities of Pakistan using INAA and AAS." Radiochimica Acta 93, no. 8 (2005): 487-495; Waheed, Shahida, A. Rahman, N. Khalid, and Shujaat Ahmad. "Assessment of air quality of two metropolitan cities in Pakistan: Elemental analysis using INAA and AAS." Radiochimica Acta 94, no. 3 (2006): 161-166.



vii. Incapable to cope with disasters: Pakistan is not prepared to effectively cope with the loss accompanied by natural disasters such as flooding or drought.

viii. Inconsistent implementation of Environmental law: Poor implementation of environmental laws and regulations causes massive destruction to the environment

Role of Parliament and Civil Society in Meeting the Clean Air Challenge

i. Awareness Raising among Masses: Basic role that can be played by both parliament and civil society is to enhance public awareness regarding the dangers and costs of air pollution to individuals, societies and public health systems. Platform can be arranged to give importance to public opinion in favor of cleaner air quality across Pakistan. Students and experts across Pakistan can be engaged for this cause and consideration must be given to their ideas for promoting clean Pakistan.

ii. Policy Interventions: Parliamentarians and policy makers must review and revise the national policies with a view of mainstreaming SDGs by focusing on renewable and low-carbon energy sources. Budget must be allocated for investment in air quality measurement devices that can provide real-time air quality information. Public participation must be promoted in policies to ensure Pakistan meets its commitments on SDGs and Paris agreement. Most of our policies are more oriented towards dealing with a particular hazard once it has been occurred but Policies must be design in such a way that they promote the prevention of a particular hazard to minimize the cost of damage and rehabilitation.

iii. Regular Environmental Monitoring: One of the major challenges faced by Pakistan in terms of environmental protection is the lack of regular monitoring of environmental parameters. This becomes a hindrance towards adopting timely and effective actions. The monitoring devices are not sufficient in number so the data cannot be recorded for vast area or for longer period of time. Therefore availability of state of the art monitoring devices must be ensured by the government and these must be made available in every scientific institute and laboratory of Pakistan.

iv. Introduction of air pollution control/prevention methods: Priority must be given to

control both industrial and vehicular emissions. Various strategies can be introduced such as tax relief and subsidies that support initiatives and investment in green technologies, energy efficient industries and a low-carbon and zero-emission economy. Pollution control techniques must be introduced and made compulsory to adopt in order to remove pollutants from the air stream prior to its discharge into the air. Various other initiatives can be adopted by the government of Pakistan to protect the air quality such as

a. ban on import of pollution emitting vehicles, b. Promotion of green projects, c. conservation of natural habitat, d. formation of climate change institutes dedicated for climate change studies and

environment protection in which students, scholars and experts from all around Pakistan can be involved.

v. Enforcement of Environmental Laws

a. Pakistan Environmental Protection Act, 1997 1. Control of Vehicular Pollution: Section 15 of PEPA 1997 provides framework for

the elimination of vehicular pollution which also includes penalties for violating the



section. Sub section 1 of this section prohibits the use of vehicles emitting air pollutants whereas subsection 2 directs the user to adopt pollution control strategies. According to Sub section 3 if directions of Pak EPA are not complied with, then such vehicles cannot be used. By the correct implementation of this section, vehicular pollution can be controlled.

2. Industrial Emission Control: Section 11 of PEPA 1997 relates to industrial emission control. This section clearly states that no one is allowed to emit pollution into the environment and the one involved in this act would be punished. Implementation of this section will ensure the control of industrial emissions.

3. Prevention of Pollution: Section 12 of PEPA 1997 is the most important section that ensures not only the prevention of all sorts of pollution but also their control. It imposes the filing of Environmental Assessments report or Initial Environmental Examination prior to starting projects. In this way pollution is minimized from the very initial stage of the project and for the future as well and if in future the conditions mentioned in the EIA report by the Pak EPA are not complied with then it could result in serious penalization or even closing of the project. These subsections are very comprehensive and deal effectively in controlling air pollution if they are complied with. So the government must ensure their enforcement at all cost so that the current pollution load can be minimized and future threats can be avoided.

4. Basel Convention on the Control of Trans-boundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal

Pakistan signed this Convention on May 1992 and ratified it on October 1994. Therefore it is mandatory for the state to ensure the implementation of the agreements made under this convention.

Conclusion: It is true that Pakistan‟s air pollution is among the most severe in the world posing serious health, economic, social and environmental challenges but impacts of air pollution can be minimized through proper environmental monitoring, revision and enforcement of emissions standards, efficient and clean use of energy and appropriate environmental management. Therefore it is important that Parliament and civil societies work together to ensure that the environmental challenges being faced by Pakistan are effectively dealt with and the commitments made under Paris Agreement and vision 2020 are competently accomplished.



PARLIAMENTARY BUSINESS

RESOLUTION NO. 352 October 27, 1947 marks the black day in South Asian history when Indian entered and illegally and forcibly, occupied the Jammu and Kashmir, in clear violation of the partition plan whereby the majority Muslim population area was to become part of Pakistan. When the matter reached the United Nations, it passed categorical Resolutions calling for holding a plebiscite so that the people of Kashmir could exercise their right of self-determination. However, India went back on its promises and commitment to respect the UN decision and has since blocked every initiative in this direction. Over the last seventy years, the people of Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) have been subjected to brutal state repression and subjugation, a process escalated over the past decade with the presence of 7 hundred thousand strong troops in the area. However, the resilient and peace loving people of Kashmir have always rejected the illegal Indian occupation and continue their gallant struggle against the ruthless tyranny of the Indian forces. Since 2016, the Indian forces have killed hundreds of innocent Kashmiris, women and children have been blinded by the use of pellet guns, and many have been abducted and tortured. The indigenous struggle by Kashmiri youth reached new heights after the martyrdom of Burhan Wani Shaheed last year in July, 2016. The Indian government‟s continuing cold and inhumane attitude was exposed yet again by the most recent announcement of Home Minister Mr. Ranath Singh, who named a new interlocutor with a so-called „mandate to consult all local Kashmiri organizations seeking right of self-determination‟. This however, is mere eye-wash to divert the attention of International community and human rights organizations a week before arrival of US Secretary of State Mr. Rex Tillerson in New Delhi. Consequently, seeing through the smoke-screen, Hurriyat Leadership has condemned the shallow offer and made it clear to the Indian government that Pakistan remains one of the key stakeholders to the Kashmir dispute. Hence, the Senate of Pakistan moves the following resolution: Commemorating the black day of Indian occupation of Jammu and Kashmir on Oct 27, 1947, this House condemns the unabated state terrorism by Indian forces, and deplores the continuing silence of the International community towards the ongoing violence being perpetrated in occupied Kashmir. The Senate of Pakistan reiterates the stance of Hurriyat Leadership that any attempt for dialogue without engaging Pakistan in this regard is not only against longstanding international resolutions of the United Nations, but reflects India‟s continued selfishness, insincerity and blatant disregard of international principles of self-determination. Pakistan has always made efforts to hold multilateral and bilateral dialogue with India to resolve this crucial issue, but India has continued to reject such proposals. The UN, human rights organizations, and the US administration, in particular, must understand and fulfill their longstanding commitment to the amicable resolution of the dispute, according to the will of the people of Kashmir. The House reiterates that India, which boasts itself to be the „largest democracy of the world‟, is in violation of democratic values and principles, given its complete denial of even the most fundamental human rights of the local population. The Senate of Pakistan strongly condemns Indian Brutalities and ceasefire violations across the line of control. We reaffirm our solidarity and commitment to the People of Kashmir in their just struggle for the right of self-determination, and extend to them our complete political, moral and diplomatic support in line with the UN Resolutions. The Senate of Pakistan further calls upon the international community to force India to stop its human rights violations in Indian Occupied Kashmir.”

Moved by Senator Raja Muhammad Zafar-ulHaq, Leader of the House, on his own behalf and on behalf of Senators Col.

(R) Syed Tahir Hussain Mashhadi, Sehar Kamran, Mohammad Azam Khan Swati and Taj Haider Unanimously

Passed by the Senate of Pakistan on Friday, the 27th October, 2017.



OPINION

Energy Sector Development; Optimum Resource Challenges and Opportunities

Mr. Jibran Hussain Assistant Director, EOBI, Ministry of Human Resource Development.

Introduction History of economic growth is grounded in the concepts of resource acquisition, utilization, development and efficiency. Though resource exploitation has been the cornerstone of human existence, the foundational roots of mass resource utilization started with industrial revolution. The process of inventions and innovations in modern sophisticated mode of resource utilizations and economic growth are in a unique cyclical and causal relationship. Invention and innovations in technology and industry impact economic progress which in turn strengthens the former. Hence, this integrated cyclical process becomes a dynamic force for socio-economic growth and development. The first and second industrial revolutions were rooted in scientific application of steam engine, iron, cola, crude oil, electricity and internal combustion engines. Third industrial revolution was the result of development in electronics, mass production processes, efficient technologies, further expanded by advancements in social sciences, economic policy formulation and structural optimization of economic and energy organisations. Presently, we are in fourth industrial revolution where, role of nanotechnologies, 3D printers, and renewable technological advancements in energy, industry, services, transport and materials are playing a key role in reshaping the face of the Earth. Energy growth through technological advancement, resource conservation and sustained low cost green tech is playing major role in this transition.1 The current phase of industrial revolution is reshaping the world, however, mostly mitigating impact of first two industrial revolutions.2 There are societies around the world that did not gain from these revolutions. Pakistan being one of them, for over a decade Pakistan is facing a severe energy crisis, making it vulnerable to international prices of energy. Scope of Study Scope of this study is to explore potentials and opportunities for energy growth and development in Pakistan. Whereas, critically analysing impact of energy policy initiatives, energy projects and projects under CPEC on the energy sector. Energy - the Global Transition Global energy market is having phenomenal transformation from conventional to sustained energy growth, especially after enforcement of the Paris Agreement (Figure 1). Total investment in energy sector has dropped from 2 trillion to 1.8 trillion in 2015 due to drop of oil prices and massive shift from conventional to renewables, which is further expected to drop by 24% in coming years.

1World Economic Forum, “The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means, how to respond,” Accessed

November 27, 2017. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means-and-how-to-respond/ 2Uzair M. Younus, “Fourth industrial revolution.” Dawn News, May 09, 2017.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1331909



Year 2015-16 witnessed highest renewable capacity instalment of coal, oil, gas and nuclear combined, where China remained driving force in the renewable sector. Renewable subsidies reached to $150 billion, mostly in power sector, can be seen in Figure 2. Whereas, in USA, energy supply had a sharp decline, almost $75 billion, which accounts for half of global decline in energy spending. Technological innovations along with low costs accelerated the process of investment in solar, wind, smart grids, and storage, eventually caused a boost of 6% in energy efficiency spendings. Whereas, gas fired power generation investment decline nearly to 40%, showing a strong signal of global transition from conventional to renewables. Although Asian markets still favour coal based power generation, yet national policy of China and India is to adopt strong measures to be part of this global transition. Where China is already highest investor in renewable energy development, and has produced highest number of electric cars, on the other hand the big automobile corporations of India are already in the process of clean transportation.3 Pakistan has also realized this transition at a global level and efforts are been made to be aligned in this global process of transition.4 Energy Sector Development: Prospects and Challenges Pakistan‟s energy sector opened to private investment with advent of Structural Adjustment Programs (SAP), and inevitable role of donors. International agencies in power industry were driving forces shaping the Power Policy 1994 which encouraged independent power producers (IPPs) to invest in the power sector. The policy is said to pave the way for the largest energy conservation program, with projections of production of 13,000 MW. Ghazi Brotha 1450MW was an achievement despite a surplus generation of about 450 MW in 2005,5 an intense energy

3World Energy Investment 2016: International Energy Agency, 2016. Accessed November 27, 2017.

http://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2016/september/world-energy-investment-2016.html 4Kahleeq Kiani, “Govt, ADB sign agreements for clean energy, transport policy.” Dawn News, February 08,

2017. https://www.dawn.com/news/1313325 5Nawaz, S., Iqbal, N., & Anwar, S. “Electricity demand in Pakistan: a nonlinear estimation”. The Pakistan

Development Review, (2013): 479-491.

http://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2016/september/world-energy-investment-2016.html




crisis ensued in 2007, raises serious technical questions. The regime under General retd Pervaiz Musharaf could be held responsible for major financial issues in the energy sector. As, tariffs were kept frozen between 2003-2007, despite international market price hikes, which eventually became the root cause of circular debt later.6

This period also saw major announcements of expansions of Tarbela dam by Pakistan Power Sector and Infrastructure Board (PPIB) to increase generation capacity to 960 MW: the inauguration of Mirani Dam, and initiation of Gomal Zam in Damaan in NWFP with a generation capacity of 17.4 MW.7 By 2010-2011, capacity reached to 23412 MW (69% thermal; 28% hydroelectric; and 3 % nuclear), with 5 % growth since 2007-08 as opposed to the previous seven years, a lot of which is due to Independent Power Producers (IPPs) commissioned during late 1990s.8 Although many of the IPPs initiated in 1990s remained stagnant and were revived on in 2006-079. By mid-2015, electricity generation stood at 15,500 MW against 21,000 MW of demand with a total shortfall of around 5,500 MW10, which hovered around 6,000 MW by next year.11 Installed capacity was 25,000 MW (53% Public-sector and 47% Private Sector).12 However, a healthy private investment in energy sector ($1302 m to $1765, Fig-3) between 2005

6Malik, A. “Power crisis in Pakistan: a crisis in governance”. Pakistan Institute of Development Economics-PIDE

Monograph series-04. (2012) 7 Baig, A., & Rohail, M. B. (2013). “Musharraf Era performance: Pakistan Flourishes”.

presidentmusharraf.wordpress. Accessed May 10, 2017. https://presidentmusharraf.wordpress.com/2008/06/18/musharraf-era-performance-pakistan-flourishes/ 8 Malik, A. “Power crisis in Pakistan: a crisis in governance”. Pakistan Institute of Development Economics-PIDE

Monograph series-04. (2012) 9 Islamabad Chamber of Commerce & Industry (n.d.). “An Overview of Electricity Sector in Pakistan”.

icci.com.pk, Accessed May 09, 2017. http://icci.com.pk/data/downloads/63/1293619048_1.pdf 10

Web Desk, “Electricity shortfall reaches 5500 MW in Pakistan.” Dunya News, June 22, 2015. http://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/285583-Electricity-shortfall-reaches-5500-MW-in-Pakistan 11

Ahmed Faraz Khan, “Power Short Fall beyond 6000MW”. Dawn, May 21, 2016, 1259756. Accessed May 08, 2017. https://www.dawn.com/news/1259756 12

Mirza, S. J. (2015). “Overview of Pakistan Power Sector and Role of IPPS”. ppib.gov.pk. Accessed May 09, 2017.

Fig- 3

https://presidentmusharraf.wordpress.com/2008/06/18/musharraf-era-performance-pakistan-flourishes/

http://icci.com.pk/data/downloads/63/1293619048_1.pdf



and 2011 was one of the mitigating forces of the energy crisis. Moreover, the inflow of foreign direct investment shows mix trends from 2005 to 2015 (Fig-4). Power sector investment for PSDP projects in Pakistan from 2013 to 2017, doesn't show any significant government utilization of total budget for growth energy sector projects. As in 2013-2014, total budget for energy projects was Rs. 51543.425 million but actual amount spent was only Rs. 17374.17. In 2014-2015 the total budget allocated was Rs. 63613.4 million, however, spending was Rs. 262.8 million. In 2015-2016 budget allocated was Rs. 112318.28 and amount spent was Rs. 36368.302 which is half of the allocated budget. Government allocated total budget for the energy sector was Rs. 130000 million in 2016-2017, whereas actual spending was only Rs. 25632.2 million. Developments in Energy Sector Despite a rather dismal and grim assessment from the intelligence Unit of The Economist declaring that „Pakistan will continue to suffer from an electricity deficit for the foreseeable future,‟13 a review of recent developments in energy sector gives one a slightly brighter perspective. Present government is focused on resolving energy crisis as can be seen from fig-5, has been recorded for FY 2016 mainly attributed to improvement in electricity and gas supplies.14

13

The Economist Intelligence Unit (n.d.) Pakistan. Accessed May 10, 2017, http://country.eiu.com/ArticleIndustry.aspx?articleid=643657248&Country=Pakistan&topic=Industry&subtopic=Energy 14

Associated Press of Pakistan (2016). “Overview of the Economy (2015-16)”. Accessed May 10, 2017. https://www.app.com.pk/overview-of-the-economy-2015-16/



Power Policy 201315 gave a clear roadmap for addressing the power crisis. Some of the targets remain far from achieved; for example cutting down power shortfall from 5000 to zero MW. However, policies and plans developed in accordance with donor agencies facilitated in decreasing the fast exacerbating energy situation in the country. The IMF has shown optimism about improving energy situation of the country based on the current pace of its relevant reforms in the 11th review of a three-year, $6.4 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) approving release of $510 million.16 The opinion prevailed in subsequent report, twelfth and final review done in October 2016, which noted a reduction of power outages, energy subsidies, and accumulation of power sector arrears were also noted. Out of three major policy benchmarks for power sectors, two, pertaining to restraining accumulation of arrears and improving financial performance, have been positive. Some other improved and welcome financial indicators between FY2012/13 to FY2015/16 in quantitative terms have been: energy subsidies reduced from 2 to 0.6 % of GDP; distribution losses reduced from 18.9 to 17.9 (Fig-6) and distribution companies (DISCOs) collection rates gone up to 92.6% from 87.2%.17 The collection rate is nearing target set for collection for 2017 in Power Policy 2013, i.e., 95%.18 Energy Mix, Circular Debt and Energy Crisis

It is no less than a Herculean task to address the circular debt given its chronic nature and multi-pronged origin in Pakistan. Major reasons are; merger 54% recovery rate, expensive energy mix, leakages, transmission losses and theft. In this regard, Rs.480 billion debt was paid off by current government bringing back generation of 1,752 MW, raising the energy production to a total of 16900 MW approximately by July 2015.19 The management of said payment could have been objectified, instead of rush throwaway, which resulted once again the circular debt reached to Rs.414 billion.20 As, we can see from Pie Charts (Fig-7) comparing energy mix of Pakistan, India and the World. Pakistan has a heavy dependency on imported oil and gas, which makes its energy mix one of most expensive in the world. In 2014 the country generated almost 92 million

15

Ministry of Water and Power, Government of Pakistan. National Power Policy, 2013. Islamabad: Pakistan. www.ppib.gov.pk/National%20Power%20Policy%202013.pdf 16

IMF (2016a). Eleventh review under the extended arrangement and request for modification of performance criteria and extension of the extended arrangement. IMF Country Report No. 16/207. Accessed May 8, 2017. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=44037.0 17

IMF (2016b). Twelfth and final review under the extended arrangement, request for waivers of nonobservance of performance criteria, and proposal for post-program monitoring. IMF Country Report No.16/325. Accessed May 8, 2017. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2016/cr16325.pdf 18

Ministry of Energy, Power Division, Government of Pakistan, Publications, Accessed on November 27, 2017. http://www.mowp.gov.pk/pubDetails.aspx 19

Rahman, S. (n.d.). “PML-N Government overcomes challenges.” Accessed May 8, 2017. http://www.pid.gov.pk/?p=16860 20

Nasir Jamal, “Industry Profile: Circular debt cycle,” Dawn News, March 06, 2017. https://www.dawn.com/news/1318680

Fig-7

http://www.ppib.gov.pk/National%20Power%20Policy%202013.pdf

http://www.mowp.gov.pk/pubDetails.aspx

https://www.dawn.com/authors/767/nasir-jamal




tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe),21 If cost is $14cents per unit kWh and recovery rate 54%, total annual circular debt reaches $6 billion. If, state manages transmission losses to idealized 10% and recovery rate to 95%, after incorporating subsidy, annual circular debt will still be around $4 billion each year. Circular debt is a cost result of inefficiency of; production, transmission, delivery, collection and opportunity cost in capabilities of energy and relevant institutions.22 Addressing Energy Crisis through Capacity Enhancement Regulation of tariffs and subsidies along with improved collection are key financial aspects for the power sector. With a healthy economic implication, rise of tariff from PKR 8.8 to 11.9 between 2013/14-2015/17 came closer to cost recovery. Moreover, the government is moving towards „multi-year tariff framework‟ for DISCOs that is expected to bring in investors.23 Although not sustainable throughout the year, load shedding hours considerably reduced in most parts of country. From FY 2012/13 to FY 2015/16 power outages for industry and urban areas have reduced from 9 to 1 and 8 to 5 hrs/day.24 25 In 2014, generation capacity of 22,104 MW was reached with line losses of 19.6%26 (still a little above target set for 2017, i.e., 16%).27 Addressing Energy Crisis through Renewables Renewable energy is very beneficial in the long run by providing energy security, job creation, business opportunities, clean environment and sustainable economic growth. Developing research in process of horizontal drilling and exploring potential of share oil reserves in country would be a medium and long term solution. As, of 2009, Pakistan stands 19th in the world in terms of total technically recoverable shale gas reserves. International Agency for Energy has estimated shale gas at 586 Trillion Cubic Feet (Tcf) against its 2011 estimates of 52 Tcf for Pakistan28. However, a recent estimate, 201529, states that over 10,000 Tcf of shale gas reserves, of which about 205 Tcf is technically recoverable.30 In 2013, 50 MW and 100 MW in 2015 have been added from solar and wind power, respectively, which is not only enhancing the generation capacity but also improving energy mix. A solar power project, 100 MW capacities was inaugurated in May 2015, while two units with capacities of 300 MW and 400 MW were also

21

Pakistan Energy Statistics, International Energy Agency, Accessed November 27, 2017. https://www.iea.org/countries/non-membercountries/pakistan/ 22

Kugelman, Michael. Pakistan’s Interminable Energy Crisis: Is there any way out?. Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Washington, DC. 2015. Pp. 157. 23

Ibid 24

Rahman, S. (n.d.). “PML-N Government overcomes challenges.” Accessed May 8, 2017. http://www.pid.gov.pk/?p=16860 25

IMF (2016b). Twelfth and final review under the extended arrangement, request for waivers of nonobservance of performance criteria, and proposal for post-program monitoring. IMF Country Report No.16/325. Accessed May 8, 2017. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2016/cr16325.pdf 26

Rizvi, J. (n.d.). “Demystifying Pakistan’s Energy Crisis.” Accessed May 8, 2017. http://www.technologyreview.pk/demystifying-pakistans-energy-crisis/ 27

Planning Power NTDC, Power system Statistics, 2014-2015, National Transmission and Dispatch Company: 40

th Edition, http://www.ntdc.com.pk/Files/power2015.pdf

28 “Shale Gas by Country.” In Wikipedia: The free encyclopedia. Accessed November 27, 2017,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shale_gas_by_country#cite_note-43 29

Zafar Bhutta, “Pakistan has 10,159 tcf of shale gas deposits: USAID.” The Express Tribune, November 20, 2015. https://tribune.com.pk/story/994883/hydrocarbon-presence-pakistan-has-10159-tcf-of-shale-gas-deposits-usaid/ 30

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), “Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States,” Washington: US, 2013. https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/overview.pdf

http://www.ntdc.com.pk/Files/power2015.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shale_gas_by_country#cite_note-43



started for completion in Bahawalpur by the end of 2016.31 Moreover, a wind corridor in Sindh has been identified by Pakistan Metrological Department (PMD) spreading across 9,700 Sq-km potential of 43,000 MW, could be translated into 11,000 MW. A target has been set to achieve at least 5% share of solar in the country‟s energy mix by 2030. Solar mapping in this regard has been collaboratively been done by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, Colorado USA, USAID, PMD and AEDB. Energy Development and Role of CPEC China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is a framework of regional connectivity. It involves four pillars of development, which include infrastructure, integrated communications sector, industrial development and energy sector where one of the prerequisites is inter-provincial harmony with the centre32. CPEC accompanies for Pakistan a number of projects favouring the development in the energy sector. Production capacity of 5000MW is expected to be added in the national grid through projects under this cooperation by 2018.33 More than half of the investment has been made in early harvest” projects, which include energy projects provided through Foreign Direct Investment of worth $18 billion will largely cover. (IMF 2016b) About 62% of the CPEC investment will be allocated to energy projects as 23 projects costing $ 33.7 billion aim to increase power production by 16,695 MW in the country. Of these, 15 priority projects costing $ 21.6 billion will be able to provide up to 10,350 MW of electricity by mid-2018, while 8 projects costing $ 12 billion will jack power production capacity by 6,345 MW at a later stage. Not to mention that few projects been removed from „early harvest‟ category, the opportunity energy cost of those is 6600MW.34

31

Zafaryab (2016). “Government plans to generate 43,127 MW of electricity by 2018-19.” Accessed May 8, 2017. https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/97442-Government-plans-to-generate-43127-MW-of-electricity-by-2018-19 32

Center-province disputes are causing delays in some of big energy projects like Port Qasim Coal project in Sindh, which was estimated to add 1,320MW and which stands enmeshed in a center versus province standoff due to disputes regarding land acquisition, that are still yet to be, solved. Suki Kinari hydropower plant’s fate took a similar turn as it was announced that it faces another delay; one of ‘priority projects’ in Mansehra district of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, it is facing land acquisition troubles. Constructed by China Gezhoube Group, US$1.8 billion project, which was supposed to add 870MW, has been delayed for a year again. Dispute between Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa government and central government is not helping either. 33

Planning Commission, Ministry of Planning, Development & Reform, Government of Pakistan (2017). Development Insight, Volume 1, Issue 3. 34

Other projects have been delayed, and subsequently moved from “early harvest” category to “actively promoted projects” category which remain in pipeline or targeted for completion only by 2020. There have also been projects which have been shelved altogether such as, for example, US$9 billion Gadani Power Plant in Balochistan, which was supposed to generate 6,600MW. Problems of transportation and lack of commitment on part of Chinese investors led to decision of putting the project on backburner and finally in its scrapping. To take another example of a project that is strictly not part of CPEC, the Diamer Bhasha dam, in Gandlo Nala area in Gilgit-Baltistan, which Chinese agreed to build in 2015, is embroiled in a dispute between two rival tribes. This stretch of land, which is at border between Kohistan, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, and Diamer in Diamer Bhasha dam which Chinese agreed to build in 2015. Gilgit-Baltistan has witnessed multiple clashes in recent past between rival tribes which are backed by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan governments. The project is expected to supply 4,500MW of electricity and will make available 7.89 billion cubic meters of water storage to supplement irrigation during low flow period



Chinese government has announced its intention to build a $2.5 billion 711 kilometers long liquid natural gas pipeline from Gwadar to Nawabshah. Pipeline is a part of the 2,775 kilometers long Iran–Pakistan gas pipeline. Iran has already completed a 900 kilometers long portion of pipeline on its side of the border. Pakistani portion of pipeline is to be constructed by the state-owned China Petroleum Pipelines Bureau. This project will not only provide gas exporters with access to Pakistani market, but will also allow China to secure a route for its own imports.35 36 However, the Nawabshah project, $2 billion 1,100 kilometre North-South Pipeline, with Russian assistance will be completed by 2018, the $7.5 billion TAPI Pipeline, involving Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India.37,38 Balloki Power Plant Kasur, 1,223 MW is currently under construction by China‟s Harbin Electric Company with financing from the China‟s EXIM bank. Bhikki Power Plant, Sheikhupura, 1180 MW, is to be jointly constructed by China‟s Harbin Electric Company and General Electric from United States of America. It is expected to be Pakistan‟s most efficient power plant, and will provide enough power for an estimated 6 million homes.39 40 Fig-10. CPEC-Energy Priority Projects

Project Name MW $ Million

Status of work Commercial Operation Date (COD)

Sahiwal 2x660MW Coal-fired Power Plant

1320 1,600 95% completed. 25 Dec, 2017

Port Qasim Electric Company Coal Fired

1320 1,980 65% Power Plant June 2018.

Engro thar 4x330MW Coal-fired, Thar

1320 2,000 Construction in progress.

June, 2019

Thar Coal field, 6.5 metric ton 1,470 IA/EA signed. 2018/2019

Gwadar Coal fired Power 300 600 31st March, 2017

35

Yuan Yan-ping, New Energy and Sustainable Development - Proceedings Of 2016 International Conference On New Energy And Sustainable Development (Nesd 2016), World Scientific: 2016. http://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/10105 36

Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad,“Chinese company to build LNG, gas pipeline projects in Pakistan,”Accessed November 27, 2017. http://issi.org.pk/chinese-company-to-build-lng-gas-pipeline-projects-in-pakistan/ 37

Asad Rafi, Farid Khan and Sabah Aslam, “CPEC: Pakistan’s Way to Success,” IICR Special Report, Septmeber 2016. http://iicr.org.pk/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/IICR- Special-Report- on-CPEC 38

Junaid Ashraf, “Issue Brief: Energy Projects under CPEC,”Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad, March 09, 2017. http://issi.org.pk/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Final_IB_Junaid_dated_09-3-2017.pdf 39

Aadil Shadman, “All You Need to Know About Electricity Projects Under CPEC (Part I),” Propakistani, January, 2017. https://propakistani.pk/2016/12/19/need-know-electricity-projects-cpec-part/ 40

“CPEC-Energy Priority Projects,” China Pakistan Economic Corridor, Accessed November 27, 2017. http://cpec.gov.pk/energy

http://cpec.gov.pk/energy



Project,

HUBCO coal power plant 1X660 MW, Hub

660 970 IA/EA Signed 2018/2019

Rahimyar Khan Coal Power Project

1320 1,600 Feasibility in process

SSRL Thar Coal Block 1 - 6.5 metric ton

1,300 2018 / 2019

SSRL 2×660 MW Mine Mouth Power Plant,Sindh

1320 2,000 2018 / 2019

Zonergy 900MW Solar Park, Bahawalpur

900 1,215 First Phase complete August 2016

Dawood 50MW wind Farm, Bhambore, Sindh

50 125 Complete Jan, 2017

UEP 100MW wind Farm, Jhimpir, Sindh

100 250 March, 2017. June, 2017

Sachal 50MW Wind Farm, Jhimpir, Sindh

50 134 Construction in progress.

June, 2017

Suki Kinari Hydro power Station, KPK

870 1,802 initiate construction 2021/2022

Karot Hydropower Station, AJK & Punjab

720 1,420 25% civil works completed.

20/2021

Matiari to Lahore Transmission line

1,500 Land acquisition 2018 / 2019

Matiari to Faisalabad Transmission line

1,500 TSA/IA initialed 2018 / 2019

CPEC-Energy Actively Promoted Projects

Gaddani Power Park Project (2×660MW)

1320 3,960 Under Study

Gaddani Power Park Project (Jetty + Infrastructure)

1,200 Under Study

HUBCO coal power plant 1X660 MW, Hub Balochistan

660 970 IA/EA Signed. 2018/2019

Kohala Hydel Project, AJK 1100 2,397 Financial close in Dec 2017.

2023

Pakistan Wind Farm II 2X50 MW Jhampir

100 150 Financial Close April 2017.

Sep, 2018

Thar mine mouth oracle, Thar Sindh

1320 1,300 Feasibility stage

Muzaffargarh Coal Power Project, Punjab

1320 1,600 Under Study



Way forward It is critical to understand that there is no short cut solution to the energy crisis. Moreover, it is important to comprehend that energy crisis in strict terms is not real problem, rather it is symptom to series of unresolved issues, such as; weak energy infrastructure, inefficient productivity, increasing transmission and distribution losses, energy theft, lack of energy conservation, lack of supply side integration, tariffs and subsidies, expensive and irrational energy mix, collection of bills, unplanned urban expansion, inefficient utilization of existing resources, slow and restrained privatization process of DISCOs, lack of private investment in the sector, lack of energy research and real time data processing, statistical darkness and technological backwardness at state level and volatility to international oil prices. These factors merge together and create diseconomies of scale in energy supply, create outages, and circular debt, these then converts into energy crisis. To find a sustained long term solution, it is fundamentally critical to address the issues stated above, individually to their finest details respectively. Capacity enhancement, technological adaptation process, institutional reforms and restructuring, integrated and sustained energy policy is the only long run solution. As, the objective of energy growth and development is not just to reduce supply demand gap, but also to increase per capita energy consumption, sustained supply to industry and business. It also aims to expand the energy supply to deprived parts of the population to reduce energy poverty, without compromising fair share of our future generations.



READERS FEEDBACK CORNER Feedback on Research Services and Digest of the Pakistan Institute for Parliamentary

Services

i. PIPS research on demand services are commendable, which has always provided me prompt and quality research products as well as support to draft various non-legislative business, throughout my last three years at the Senate of Pakistan. Thank you so much for your continued support. Honourable Senator Ms Saher Kamran, Member of the Defence and Defence Production and Member Functional Committee on Human Rights, Senate of Pakistan in meeting on October 26, 2017. ii. Congratulations on timely publication of a comprehensive Data book on Sustainable Development Goals – Pakistan‟s challenges and Opportunities. It will help Members of Parliament and parliamentary SDGs taskforces to play their mandated oversight role in monitoring of government initiatives for improving well-being of citizens. Honourable Mr. William John Barkat, MPA and Member, SDGs Taskforce, Provincial Assembly of Balochistan attending the National Parliamentary RoundTable on SDGs Nov., 2-3, 2017 at PIPS.

iii. We acknowledge the quality publications produced by the Pakistan Institute for Parliamentary Services. The thirty books published by the Institute covers every aspect of parliamentary life and we will keep two sets of same in the newly set up library facility at the Legislative Assembly of Gilgit Baltistan. I would like to praise the PIPS leadership and entire team who have always been receptive to needs of MPs viz a viz research and analysis. Honourable Mr Fida Muhammad Nashad, Legislative Assembly of Gilgit Baltistan, attending the National Parliamentary Roundtable on SDGs held on Nov., 2-3, 2017.

iv. “Maybe, the Pakistan Institute for Parliamentary Services should do something in this regard. This useful institution has attracted notice with the latest issue of its periodical publication, Parliamentary Research Digest, for July-August 2017. The slim newsletter tells us of an event described as parliamentary dialogue on „youth building peace‟ held on Aug 8 this year. The participants included members of parliament, academics, diplomats and students from 25 universities and colleges from different parts of the country. Making our youth familiar with parliament‟s working is a sound method of deepening democracy. In fact, there is much to be said for taking all students on the opening day of each academic year to a national or local hero‟s monument, a democratic institution (from union council office to provincial assembly to parliament) and/or a historical/ anthropological museum. Children should start learning about their identity, their history and democratic governance as early in life as possible. The next feature is a recollection of the proceedings of the constituent assembly of Pakistan on Aug 10, 11 and 12, 1947, including the Quaid‟s historic address on being elected president of the assembly. This is followed by the report of a function held on Aug 10-11, 2017, to celebrate parliament as Pakistan turned 70. Finally, one finds a refreshing though preliminary paper on „gender-responsive budgeting‟, a subject that is most relevant to Pakistan and yet very rarely discussed. The writer offers us useful examples of how the subject is addressed in Australia, South Africa, Sri Lanka and India.



In a country where state institutions seldom win approval for their labours, this institution deserves to be commended. And that is why it is asked to develop as rich as possible a library of books, videos and films on parliamentary practices where our legislators could, individually and collectively, equip themselves with the means of making their debates livelier, informative and educative and thus advance the conventions of democracy more effectively. They will help make the truth more palatable and also establish a tradition of facing it squarely.” Mr I. A Rehman, Article by the Reknowned Intellectual and Human Rights Activist of Pakistan, titled: No room for the truth, published in Dawn, October 5th, 2017.

v. Thanks for sharing PIPS Research Digest. In fact it is very informative and having

good knowledge about democratic values. I''ll Inshallah put my efforts for this digest

soon regarding democratic social values and role of constitution. Mr Zubair Safdar,

Assistant Professor, Department of Public Policy, Ripah International University,

Islamabad, 2017.

vi. I am extremely obliged for PIPS continues support, helping and contribution in

the academic field. We ll request for subscription of increased numbers of PIPS Digest

copies. Mr Niaz Gul, Provincial Assembly of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, emailed

October, 2017.

We encourage our honourable readers to keep sending their feedback and suggestions at: [email protected]


ANNUAL STATUS OF EDUCATION REPORT 2016

For feedback feel free to contact Editor at: Ataturk Avenue (Service Road), F-5/2, Islamabad Email: [email protected] Web: www.pips.gov.pk

Pakistan Institute for Parliamentary Services was established in Dec 2008 through an act of

the Parliament to promote research, provide training and to provide facility of information

to the Parliamentarians in performance of their duties and for matters connected therewith

and ancillary thereto.

PIPS team endeavors to serve the Parliament through its cherished values of :

Integrity, professionalism, non-partisanship, accessibility and anticipation

Disclaimer: The author(s) of each article appearing in this Digest is/are solely responsible for the content there-of; the publication of an article shall not constitute or be deemed to constitute any representation by the Editors or Institute.

MEMBERS OF THE PARLIAMENT AND PROVINCIAL ASSEMBLIES PARTICIPATING IN THE INTER-PARLIAMENTARY EXCHANGE PROGRAMME ON HUMAN RIGHTS AND PARLIAMENTARY REFORMS ON NOVEMBER 13-14, 2017.


Documents

ISSN # 2414 Parliamentary Research Digest · Parliamentary Research Digest V O L U M E 4 , I S S U E 1 1 N O V E M B E R , 2 0 1 7 INSIDE THIS ISSUE: Editorial Water and air are pivotal