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issued14August2020
Thelatestseasonalprecipita7onpredic7onsarederivedfromsixmodels,CFSv2,ECMWFandCopernicus(CMCC,DWD,Méteo-France,UKMO),providedbytheWorldClimateService(WCS).Themoremodels,thebeMertheoverallforecast.TherearemixedsignalsbetweenthemodelsfortheSahelofWestAfricaandSudanwhilethereisagreementaboutweMercondi7onsintheinteriorofEastAfrica.Below-normalrainsareexpectedinthewinterbreedingareasalongbothsidesoftheRedSea.
Summerbreedingareas(September–November)• EAfrica:weMerthannormalinNKenya,NE/EEthiopia,NWSomalia(Sep)followedbydrierthannormal• WAfricaSahelofWAfrica&Sudan:normaltodrierthannormal• Yemen:weMerthannormalininteriorandnormalonthecoasts• Indo-Pakistan:weMerthannormalWinterbreedingareas(October–February)• RedSea:drierthannormal(Oct–Nov),weMerthannormal(Dec–Feb)exceptSaudiArabiaandYemen• GulfofAden(NWSomalia):drierthannormal(Oct–Nov)followedbynormal• GulfofAden(Yemen):normaltoweMerthannormal(Oct,Dec),drierthannormal(Nov,Jan–Feb)Springbreedingareas(February)• SWAsia:slightlyweMerthannormal(SEIran,SWPakistan)• CentralRegion:normaltodrierthannormal(interiorofSaudiArabia,Yemen,Oman)• WesternRegion:normal(southofAtlasMtsinNWAfrica)
Pleaserefertothechartsonthefollowingpages.Avalueof100onthele^axisindicatesnormalrainfall;valueslessthan100indicatedrierthannormalcondi7ons;morethan100indicatesweMerthannormal.LiMlevaria7onbetweenmodelssuggestsgreaterconfidenceandreliability.Anasteriskindicatesmostreliableineachmonth.Thehistoricallybestmodelforeachregionduringtheen7reforecastisindicatedinthecap7on.
Seasonalprecipita/onpredic/onsinDesertLocustsummer/winter/springbreedingareas
(September2020–February2021)
FAODesertLocustInforma7onService(DLIS)/WorldClimateService(WCS)
Predictedrainfallanomalyfor15–21August(le^)and22–28August(right)
Summerbreeding,September–November(HornofAfrica)
Summer Breeding Region (Horn of Africa)
Summerbreeding,September–November(Indo-Pakistan)
[Historicallybest:CFSv2]
Summerbreeding,September–November(SahelofWestAfrica&Sudan)
[Historicallybest:CMCC]
Winterbreeding,October–February(RedSeacoast)
Springbreeding,February(southernIran,SWPakistan)
Springbreeding,February(ArabianPeninsula)
Springbreeding,February(NWAfrica)