Item SR-17: Comprehensive Tropical Item SR-17: Comprehensive Tropical Training for WFO ForecastersTraining for WFO Forecasters

A National InitiativeA National Initiative

Mission ConnectionMission Connection• Landfalling tropical cyclones (e.g., hurricanes and tropical storms; Landfalling tropical cyclones (e.g., hurricanes and tropical storms;

typhoons) are a significant and recurring threat to the lives and typhoons) are a significant and recurring threat to the lives and property of our citizens. property of our citizens.

• Since a large percentage of our nation’s population and corresponding Since a large percentage of our nation’s population and corresponding business interests is located near the coast, a single hurricane event can business interests is located near the coast, a single hurricane event can result in large economic impacts.result in large economic impacts.

• Among hazardous weather phenomena for which the NWS directly Among hazardous weather phenomena for which the NWS directly

provides decision support, (major) landfalling hurricanes place the provides decision support, (major) landfalling hurricanes place the greatest demand upon our mission delivery system (e.g., products and greatest demand upon our mission delivery system (e.g., products and services). services).

Required Knowledge & Skills IRequired Knowledge & Skills I• There is a lack of operations experience in working tropical There is a lack of operations experience in working tropical

cyclone events at some field offices, particularly among cyclone events at some field offices, particularly among forecasters located at inland offices and coastal offices that forecasters located at inland offices and coastal offices that have longer return periods for tropical cyclone occurrences.have longer return periods for tropical cyclone occurrences.– This has had a limiting effect on the acquisition and retention of skill This has had a limiting effect on the acquisition and retention of skill

sets needed to work such events. sets needed to work such events.

• Within universities, many atmospheric science departments Within universities, many atmospheric science departments do not demand tropical meteorology coursework of their do not demand tropical meteorology coursework of their students (especially undergraduates). students (especially undergraduates). – This has had a limiting effect on the knowledge base of our field This has had a limiting effect on the knowledge base of our field

forecasters relative to tropical cyclones. forecasters relative to tropical cyclones.

Required Knowledge & Skills IIRequired Knowledge & Skills II• To date, there is no comprehensive tropical training available To date, there is no comprehensive tropical training available

from the NWS as with other Advanced Warning Operations from the NWS as with other Advanced Warning Operations Courses (AWOC/Severe, AWOC/Winter, etc.).Courses (AWOC/Severe, AWOC/Winter, etc.).– This, too, has had a limiting effect on the ability for field forecasters to This, too, has had a limiting effect on the ability for field forecasters to

remain current in the latest science and proficient in new applications.remain current in the latest science and proficient in new applications.

• In other words, In other words, WFO forecaster expertiseWFO forecaster expertise is not being is not being cultivated relative to tropical operations, from an institutional cultivated relative to tropical operations, from an institutional perspective. perspective. – Note: The COMET online tropical meteorology course/book is Note: The COMET online tropical meteorology course/book is

helpful toward understanding certain science issues, but it lacks helpful toward understanding certain science issues, but it lacks connection to WFO operations.connection to WFO operations.

Articulating the ProblemArticulating the Problem• For any one location, hurricanes are low frequency events. For any one location, hurricanes are low frequency events.

Related training is often deemed a Related training is often deemed a “future priority.”“future priority.”• However, hurricanes are high impact events for which the NWS However, hurricanes are high impact events for which the NWS

is expected to provide a high level of service that is subject to an is expected to provide a high level of service that is subject to an ever-increasing customer demand.ever-increasing customer demand.– e.g., External products are triggered on the issuance of the HLS. If offices e.g., External products are triggered on the issuance of the HLS. If offices

are issuing the initial HLS at times ranging from 15 minutes to over an are issuing the initial HLS at times ranging from 15 minutes to over an hour after the TCV issuance, this causes problems for our partners.hour after the TCV issuance, this causes problems for our partners.

• PROBLEM:PROBLEM: Collectively, WFO forecasters do not all sufficiently Collectively, WFO forecasters do not all sufficiently possess the expertise needed to meet current customer demand possess the expertise needed to meet current customer demand toward the protection of life, property, economic interests, and toward the protection of life, property, economic interests, and ecologic interests.ecologic interests.– More so, as the demand for Decision Support Services increases, this gap More so, as the demand for Decision Support Services increases, this gap

will widen unless investment is made soon to cultivate forecaster will widen unless investment is made soon to cultivate forecaster expertise relative to tropical cyclone operations. expertise relative to tropical cyclone operations.

Recommended FocusRecommended Focus

– Threat AssessmentThreat Assessment• By hazardBy hazard• Physical science considerationsPhysical science considerations

– Impact RecognitionImpact Recognition• Threat assessments interpreted to potential impacts Threat assessments interpreted to potential impacts • Customer thresholdsCustomer thresholds

– Message CommunicationMessage Communication• ““One message”One message”• Social science considerationsSocial science considerations

Start / RepeatStart / Repeat

Interpret Interpret ImpactsImpacts

Communicate Communicate MessageMessage

Assess Assess ThreatThreat

SpecificSpecific

CustomerCustomer

General CustomerGeneral Customer

- MET- ERMET

WFO Tropical OperationsWFO Tropical Operations“Forecast & Decision Support Cycle”

Coordination Coordination and and

Consistency of Consistency of MessageMessage

Threat AssessmentThreat Assessment(some suggested topics)(some suggested topics)

• Fundamentals of Tropical Meteorology (core skill set)Fundamentals of Tropical Meteorology (core skill set)– Principles of Physical Science (atmospheric and oceanic components)Principles of Physical Science (atmospheric and oceanic components)– Tropical Cyclone characteristicsTropical Cyclone characteristics– Basin ClimatologiesBasin Climatologies– Wind Field Distribution (strength, symmetry, etc.)Wind Field Distribution (strength, symmetry, etc.)– Rainband TornadoesRainband Tornadoes– Wave/Swell Dynamics (see wind field distribution)Wave/Swell Dynamics (see wind field distribution)– Storm Surge and TideStorm Surge and Tide– Inland (Flash) FloodingInland (Flash) Flooding

• Forecast MethodologyForecast Methodology– ““Tropical” forecast funnel approach Tropical” forecast funnel approach – The role of probabilistic guidance/forecasts (wind, surge, qpf, etc)The role of probabilistic guidance/forecasts (wind, surge, qpf, etc)– Completing the Forecast PictureCompleting the Forecast Picture

• Operational ComponentsOperational Components– Storm Surge/Slosh modelingStorm Surge/Slosh modeling

• SLOSH model assumptions/strength/weaknessSLOSH model assumptions/strength/weakness• Proper use of MOMs/MEOWs (strength/weakness)Proper use of MOMs/MEOWs (strength/weakness)

– Tropical Cyclones Model GuidanceTropical Cyclones Model Guidance– National Center Guidance and Product InterpretationNational Center Guidance and Product Interpretation– Mesoscale Implications (tropical cyclones as mesoscale convective systems)Mesoscale Implications (tropical cyclones as mesoscale convective systems)

Impact RecognitionImpact Recognition(some suggested topics)(some suggested topics)

• Customer ThresholdsCustomer Thresholds– ““A disaster is no time for introductions.”A disaster is no time for introductions.”

• Local EffectsLocal Effects– Terrain, elevation, exposure, surface roughness, inland decay, etc.Terrain, elevation, exposure, surface roughness, inland decay, etc.

• Role of WFO ForecasterRole of WFO Forecaster– WFO Products & ServicesWFO Products & Services– Understanding probabilistic guidanceUnderstanding probabilistic guidance– ERMETs ERMETs

• Updating Forecast/Warning DatabasesUpdating Forecast/Warning Databases– Proper use of available tools and productsProper use of available tools and products

• Operational SettingsOperational Settings– Staffing an eventStaffing an event– Assigning responsibilitiesAssigning responsibilities

Communicate MessageCommunicate Message(some suggested topics)(some suggested topics)

• ““The Hurricane Problem”The Hurricane Problem”– Mitigation, Preparation, Response, RecoveryMitigation, Preparation, Response, Recovery

• Expressing UncertaintyExpressing Uncertainty– Proper use of probabilistic informationProper use of probabilistic information

• How to Craft a Message (design & goals)How to Craft a Message (design & goals)– ““One Message” (a unified and coherent message)One Message” (a unified and coherent message)– Avoiding “meteorology speak” (speaking in the customer’s language)Avoiding “meteorology speak” (speaking in the customer’s language)

• Communicating a MessageCommunicating a Message– Verbal, textual, video, graphical, gridded, etc. Verbal, textual, video, graphical, gridded, etc. – Web products, GIS-interfaces, Customer briefingsWeb products, GIS-interfaces, Customer briefings

• Supporting Customer Decision ThresholdsSupporting Customer Decision Thresholds– Understanding customer planning cycles; incorporating customer input and feedback Understanding customer planning cycles; incorporating customer input and feedback

• The Decision Support CycleThe Decision Support Cycle– Assess threat, interpret impacts, communicate message Assess threat, interpret impacts, communicate message … Repeat … Repeat …Repeat… Repeat … Repeat …Repeat

A ProposalA Proposal

• An endorsement for the authors to coordinate with An endorsement for the authors to coordinate with regional training representatives, training division regional training representatives, training division representatives, and subject matter experts regarding representatives, and subject matter experts regarding the prospect for developing tropical operations training the prospect for developing tropical operations training material.material.

• Produce a Performance Needs Statement (PNS) to Produce a Performance Needs Statement (PNS) to initiate NSTEP process for FY13 by January 13, 2012.initiate NSTEP process for FY13 by January 13, 2012.

• Produce a draft outline for an Produce a draft outline for an Advanced Tropical Operations Advanced Tropical Operations CourseCourse by Spring 2012. by Spring 2012.

• Refine and submit for consideration within the FY2013 NSTEP Refine and submit for consideration within the FY2013 NSTEP process.process.

Proposed FormatsProposed Formats

• Workshop (original concept; hands-on; interactive)Workshop (original concept; hands-on; interactive)– Completion of prerequisite online training to qualifyCompletion of prerequisite online training to qualify– 2.5 to 3 days2.5 to 3 days– Each day to address one of three vertices on operations triangle Each day to address one of three vertices on operations triangle

(threat, impacts, communication)(threat, impacts, communication)– Certificate of CompletionCertificate of Completion

• Online Module SeriesOnline Module Series– Broken into three segments (as described above)Broken into three segments (as described above)– Include hands-on assignments and exercisesInclude hands-on assignments and exercises– Certificate of CompletionCertificate of Completion

Weather Ready Nation (WRN)Weather Ready Nation (WRN)(a closing comment)(a closing comment)

• Recall that a stated goal for Recall that a stated goal for WRNWRN is to “ is to “Improve weather decision Improve weather decision support services for events that threaten lives and livelihoods.support services for events that threaten lives and livelihoods.””– Few events threaten lives and livelihoods as extensively as landfalling tropical Few events threaten lives and livelihoods as extensively as landfalling tropical

cyclones.cyclones.

• Item SR-14 of the 2011 NOAA Hurricane Conference entitled Item SR-14 of the 2011 NOAA Hurricane Conference entitled “Creating a Tropical Operations Short Course/Workshop for “Creating a Tropical Operations Short Course/Workshop for ERMETs” ERMETs” proposes complementary training scoped specifically for proposes complementary training scoped specifically for ERMETs located at Southern Region WRN Pilot Project locations ERMETs located at Southern Region WRN Pilot Project locations (for spring 2012; limited in scope).(for spring 2012; limited in scope).– As proposed, this interactive training is intended to focus on the provision of decision As proposed, this interactive training is intended to focus on the provision of decision

support services to sophisticated users during the pre-event, event, and post-event support services to sophisticated users during the pre-event, event, and post-event phases of tropical cyclones. phases of tropical cyclones.

– Some of the developed course material can be transitioned to the proposed Some of the developed course material can be transitioned to the proposed Advanced Tropical Operations Course. Advanced Tropical Operations Course.