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ITS RAINING MEN! HALLELUJAH?THE LONG-RUN CONSEQUENCES
OF MALE-BIASED SEX RATIOS
Pauline Grosjean&
Rose Khattar
Illustration: David Rowe
QUESTIONS OF INTERESTWhat are the implications of male-biased sex ratios on: Female labour force participation and
occupation Female leisure Norms about gender rolesin the short and long run?
SHORT-RUN EFFECTS MALE-BIASED SEX RATIOS
Simple supply and demand models: bargaining position of one gender is proportional to its scarcity the scarcer sex will benefit from being in shorter supply.
Scarcer sex will: Marry more; Marry up; Work less; and Enjoy more leisure.
Economic models predict conservative gender roles as result of male-biased sex ratio
LONG-RUN EFFECTS ORIGINS OF GENDER ROLES
Cultural persistence implies that short run factors can have long term effects through institutions, economic specialization and
Culture itself is inherently sticky Passed on from parents to children (Bisin and Verdier 2001) Individuals with similar views are more likely to marry one another
and more likely to stay married (Becker et al. 1977)
Where does culture come from? How does it persist? Technology
Alesina, Giuliano & Nunn (2013): past technology shapes culture Marriage market
This paper: How conditions in the marriage market affects emergence and persistence of gender norms
NATURAL EXPERIMENT: MALE-BIASEDSEX RATIOS IN AUSTRALIA
From 1787 to 1868 Australia was a penal colony (after independence of the US)
133,000 convict men and 25,000 convict women
SEX RATIO IN AUSTRALIA
Convictera
CONVICT AUSTRALIA
Convicts not hardened criminals but ordinary working class men and women (Nicholas 1988) transported for commonly property offences such as petty theft
Freed after the term of their sentence (around 7 years) Assignment scheme not free to choose
Convicts assigned to settlers, centralised but function of labor needs, mostly agricultural
Governor Bligh of New South Wales in 1812: They were arranged in our book () in order to enable me to
distribute them accordingly
CONVICT WOMEN19% of the convict population but only 6% of
convict labour force
Demand for female labor should have been high Economy desperate for labor (Oxley 2005) & convict
women had many needed skills, e.g. domestic service High gender wage gap: 46% (Meredith and Oxley 2005)
Limited options alternatives: female prison, assigned (generally in domestic services), marriage
Marriage most attractive option & enforced Bearing child out of wedlock was a crime Legal right to divorce came late. By end of 19th century:
total of only 799 divorce petitions
Short-run Colonial Censuses: 1836 - 1881
Long-run: 2011 Census
Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA)
Sex ratio Convicts Female Labour Force Occupations Marriage
Female Labour Force Occupations
Views on gender roles Leisure
DATA
MATCHING HISTORICAL COUNTIES TOPOSTAL AREAS TODAY
Digitisation of historical maps from the National Library and State Libraries
Example of Postal Area shapefileoverlaid with 1836 NSW shapefile
GENDER IMBALANCE IN MID 19TH CENTURY Total sex ratio (#men / #women) of around 3 on average Convict sex ratio of around 30 on average
IDENTIFICATION Treatment: sex ratios Varies across geographical areas
Time and state fixed effects Very few observable differences between high/low
sex ratios areas, historically and today. In particular, no difference in initial economic specialisation or mineral endowments
Control for characteristics today that could affect outcomes and be correlated with treatment Initial economic specialisation, mineral endowments,
land characteristics, education, urbanisation
IDENTIFICATION
IV strategy: Instrument overall sex ratio by convict sex ratio Convicts, by definition, not free to move Assignment scheme determined treatment allocation
Labour requirements: local industrial specialisation Geographic characteristics
We control for industrial specialisation that determined convict allocation,
and for total proportion of convicts
EMPIRICAL SPECIFICATION
: time-invariant geographic postal area characteristics: latitude, longitude, land characteristics, mineral endowments
: historic controls: economic specialisation (11 sectors), historical population
: individual controls (gender, marital status, age, education, income, Australian born) : postal area contemporary controls (sex ratio, urbanization): state dummies : HILDA wave dummies (if applicable)
Clustered standard errors at historical county level (91 clusters)
HISTORICAL RESULTS
Gender imbalance associated with: Higher marriage rates for women Lower female labour force participation Fewer women in high ranking occupations
Robust in panel (with county and time fixed effects) and in cross section
Compositional or bargaining power?
GENDER IMBALANCE, FEMALE WORK ANDMARRIAGE BETWEEN 1836 AND 1881
1
2
3
4
Married women (% women)
Married men (% men)
Female labor force participation
(% married women)
Women in high-ranking occupations (% working women)
Sex ratio
2.481***
-1.515***
-13.205**
-14.100***
(0.794)
(0.285)
(5.579)
(3.603)
Observations
412
412
205
247
R-squared
0.234
0.120
0.377
0.619
Number of counties
94
94
70
77
Male LFP/Occupation
No
No
Yes
Yes
County FE
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Year FE
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
PERSISTENCE, TO THIS DAY More conservative attitudes towards gender roles: It is
better for everyone involved if the man earns the money and the woman takes care of the home and children 1 s.d. increase in historical sex ratio: decrease in the share of
women professionals by 0.06 s.d Comparable to 45% of the effect of identifying as a female versus a male
respondent
Male-biased historical sex ratio associated with: Decrease in hours supplied by women in labour force; Decrease in women employed as professionals: Increase in leisure for women (dont increase work at home)
1 s.d. increase = 2.3 hours per week increase in leisure for women, which is more than half the average (negative) gap in leisure time between women and men
Less likely to feel rushed and more likely to enjoy spare time
REGRESSION RESULTS: GENDER ROLES
Robust standard errors clustered at historical county level.
1
2
3
4
5
Female labor force participation
Log hours worked
Women in high-rank occupations
Leisure time
Progressive attitude: Female work
Historical sex ratio
-0.116+
0.015***
-0.445***
-0.266
-0.036***
(0.075)
(0.003)
(0.135)
(0.238)
(0.009)
Female
-0.291***
-4.807***
0.464***
(0.023)
(0.694)
(0.017)
Female*Historical sex ratio
-0.021***
0.769**
(0.007)
(0.300)
State FE
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Geographic controls
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Individual controls
-
Yes
-
Yes
Yes
Contemporary poa controls
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Historical controls
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Minerals and land type
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Male LFP
Yes
No
No
No
No
Male high-rank occup.
No
No
Yes
No
No
Observations
1,862
30,894
1,861
27,389
42,284
Number of counties
88
78
88
78
78
R-squared
0.731
0.148
0.573
0.174
0.168
HOW CAN IMPACTS PERSIST IN THELONG RUN?
Cultural persistence At least part of: explained by emergence of norms about the
gender roles & relative bargaining power of men and women in relationships due to imbalanced sex ratios
Successful cultural traits spread
Formal institutions Within-country, within-state analysis
Industrial specialization, education Control for this, historically and today At best very weak evidence, and would not explain positive effect
on women leisure
Vertical Transmission within families No influence on people not born from Australian
parents People with Australian parents more progressive on
average, but not where gender imbalance was high
Migration Migration makes experimentation less costly and
facilitates transition away from convention Historical sex ratio associated with conservative
gender norms in migration low areas , but not high
Homogamy marriage market Only in areas where homogamy is high Strategic complementarity of views on gender roles
among potential spouses
CULTURAL PERSISTENCE
CULTURAL PERSISTENCE: VERTICALTRANSMISSION, MIGRATION & HOMOGAMY
Robust standard errors clustered at historical county level.
1
2
3
Progressive attitude: Female work
Historical sex ratio
0.014
0.038*
0.067
(0.015)
(0.021)
(0.050)
Australian parent
0.302***
(0.060)
Australian parent * Historical sex ratio
-0.059***
(0.021)
Low migration
0.102
(0.062)
Low migration * Historical sex ratio
-0.074***
(0.019)
High Homogamy
0.087
(0.132)
High Homogamy * Historical sex ratio
-0.095*
(0.051)
State FE
Yes
Yes
Yes
Geographic controls
Yes
Yes
Yes
Individual controls
Yes
Yes
Yes
Present-day postal area controls
Yes
Yes
Yes
Historical controls
Yes
Yes
Yes
Minerals and land type
Yes
Yes
Yes
Observations
42,284
42,284
41,928
R-squared
0.169
0.168
0.168
CONCLUSIONOur contribution First study of long term legacy of gender imbalance Long term effects of gender imbalance more than 100
years later effects persist The nearly one hundred million missing women in the
world today may deeply affect labour markets and gender norms not only in the years to come
Influence of culture on economic outcomes and how culture emerges and persists.
ROBUSTNESS Robust to:
IV strategy Measuring the sex ratio later, in 1861 1933 Census Propensity score matching on basis of geographic
characteristics and historical economic specialization Controlling for population density, distance to ports Non linear effects Excluding metropolitan areas Removing outliers with less than 100 women historically
(6% of sample), or with sex ratios higher than 5, or with less than 300 people historically
Test by Oster (2015) suggests that influence of unobservables would need to be 2 to 14 as large as influence of all included controls to drive effect away
Placebo regressions with randomly allocated sex ratios never significant
OPPOSITE ROLES OF MIGRATION ANDHOMOGAMY IN CULTURAL PERSISTENCE
Robust standard errors clustered at historical county level.
1 2 3 4Progressive attitude
Historical sex ratio 0.053** 0.038* 0.069 0.049(0.026) (0.021) (0.047) (0.047)
Low migration 0.101* 0.102(0.058) (0.062)
Low migration * Historical sex ratio -0.078*** -0.074***(0.025) (0.019)
High Homogamy 0.087 0.061(0.112) (0.127)
High Homogamy * Historical sex ratio -0.088* -0.080*(0.048) (0.049)
Geographic controls Yes Yes Yes YesIndividual controls Yes Yes Yes YesContemporary poa controls Yes Yes Yes YesMinerals and land type No Yes No YesHistorical controls No Yes No YesObservations 42,866 42,284 42,947 42,947R-squared 0.166 0.168 0.167 0.168State FE Yes Yes Yes YesHILDA wave FE Yes Yes Yes Yes
A WORK IN PROGRESS So what is next?
Health outcomes (joint with V. Baranov) Preferences for masculine / feminine traits (joint
with R. Brooks) Gender corporate culture and firm performance
(joint with R. Adams and A. Akyol) Influence of social norms on corporate culture and
firm productivity (Bloom et al. 2012) Do social norms held about gender influence
corporate culture? How does this gender corporate culture influence firm
performance?
GENDER CORPORATE CULTURE AND FIRMPERFORMANCE
Annual reports on workplace programs for women in all non-public sector organisations (Workplace Act) 21,787 compliance reports for the 2001-2011 period We match reports to 2,824 firm-year obs. for listed firms
Measure of gender corporate culture: Topic modeling for practices Sentiment analysis
We find that more female friendly workplaces: Have more women in management and executive ranks Have higher ROA and market to book value
Firms in areas with more progressive values have more female friendly gender corporate culture
Next: instrument gender corporate culture by historical sex ratio
FIRST HISTORICAL CENSUS
AUSTRALIA TODAY
Source: Adams and Kirchmaier 2014
AUSTRALIA TODAY
Source: Adams and Kirchmaier 2014
Its raining men! Hallelujah?The long-run consequences of male-biased sex ratios Questions Of InterestShort-run effects Male-biased sex ratiosLong-run effects Origins of gender rolesNATURAL EXPERIMENT: Male-biased sex ratios in AustraliaSex ratio in AustraliaConvict AustraliaConvict womenSlide Number 9Matching historical counties to postal areas todayGender imbalance in mid 19th century IdentificationIdentificationEmpirical specificationHistorical resultsGender imbalance, female work and marriage between 1836 and 1881 Persistence, to this dayRegression results: Gender rolesHow can impacts persist in the long run?Cultural persistenceCultural persistence: vertical transmission, migration & homogamyConclusionSlide Number 23RobustnessOpposite roles of migration and homogamy in cultural persistenceA work in progress Gender Corporate Culture and Firm Performancefirst historical censusAustralia TodayAustralia Today