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Coastal Landscape between
Resistance and Resilience to Sea
Level Rise
Lobna Mitkees
2013
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Abstract:
Climate change is expected to affect considerably the coastal communities in
specific, through the coming century. Sea Level Rise will be one of the greatest
challenges that will confront the coastal region. This will be associated by
increase in the flooding risk, coastal erosion, and increase in storm surges, so as
many other climatic events. Coastal communities in the Egyptian Nile Delta are
highly vulnerable to the threat of SLR, given that the vulnerability is determined
by its social, institutional, economic capacity to respond to change.
The current paradigm in dealing with the coastal communities is towards
mitigating the impact and increasing protection measures. However this
arguably, establishes resistant coastal community on the account of its
resilience (Klein et al 1998). The current measures conducted to reduce coastal
hazards proved to increase vulnerability of the coastal communities. Hence, this
requires change in paradigm from conventional, protection thinking towards a
more holistic approach in coping with future threat.
Resilience is a new prominent paradigm that offers more flexibility in coping
with change. The term resilience has become a prominent topic that recently
emerged in dealing with changes and very much confined within the discourse
on climatic change. The resilience of a community, of its physical and built
environment, of its homes, buildings and built infrastructure, can be viewed as
its ability to withstand, and adapt to, the changing circumstances.
This will require understanding the natural environment and incorporating it
into the design process. Therefore, hazard can be viewed as a natural
phenomena rather than a threat in designing new coastal cities. The study will
present Alexandria as a resistance paradigm. Then will offer resilience measures
for the newly proposed City of New Motobus.
Keywords:
Sea Level Rise, Resistance, Resilience, Vulnerability, Hard –Soft measures,
Holistic approach
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Coastal Landscape between Resistance and Resilience to Sea Level Rise A Thesis submitted in the Partial Fulfillment
for the Requirement of the Degree of Master of Science
in Integrated Urbanism and Sustainable Design
by Lobna Mitkees
Supervised by Prof. Antje Stockman Professor of Landscape Planning and ecology University of Stuttgart
Prof. Mohamed Salheen Professor of Urban Planning and Design University of Ain Shams
Examiners Committee Title, Name & Affiliation Prof. (external examiner) Professor of (…) University of (…) Prof. (Title/Name) Professor of (…) University of (…) Prof. (Title/Name) Professor of (…) University of (…) Prof. (Title/Name) Professor of (…) University of (…)
MM/DD/YYYY
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Disclaimer This dissertation is submitted to Ain Shams University, Faculty of Engineering
and University of Stuttgart, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning
for the degree of Integrated Urbanism and Sustainable Design.
The work included in this thesis was carried out by the author in the Year 2013
The candidate confirms that the work submitted is his own and that appropriate
credit has been given where reference has been made to the work of others.
06/08/2013
Lobna Mitkees
Signature
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Acknowledgment:
I would like to express my sincere gratitude my IUSD professors and colleagues
respect to my advisors Prof. Mohamed Salheen , Prof. Jose Moro, Prof. Antje
Stockman, Phillip Misslives, Nina Gribat, Bernd Isenberg and Mona Mannoun
for their valuable insights and guidance that helped me throughout the IUSD
years.
Moreover, my greatest appreciation and friendship goes to the IUSD Team and
all my colleagues in Cairo and Stuttgart who have provided for the greatest
moral support during hard times of frustration witnessed while going through
this new academic experience.
Last but not least, I would like to thank my supportive family for their love and
faith in me, for that I would always be indebted to them.
.
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Table of Contents
List Of Figures ................................................................................................ xiv
List Of Tables ................................................................................................ xvii
Chapter 1 ........................................................................................................... 1
1Introduction .................................................................................................... 1
1.1Problem Definition .................................................................................... 1
1.2Scope And Objectives ............................................................................... 2
1.3Research Hypothesis ................................................................................ 3
1.4Methodology: ........................................................................................... 4
2Chapter 2 ......................................................................................................... 7
Theoretical Framework ..................................................................................... 7
2.1Introduction To The Concept Of Resistance ............................................... 7
2.2Introduction To The Concept Of Resilience .............................................. 8
2.3Shifting Concepts Of Landscape .............................................................. 10
2.4Resilience Of Landscapes ........................................................................ 11
2.5Comparative Analysis Of Resistance And Resilience As A System And
Response Paradigms 11
2.5.1Resistance And Resistance Management ....................................... 12
2.5.2Resilience And Resilience Governance .......................................... 13
2.6Vulnerability ........................................................................................... 16
2.7Summary: Resistance, Resilience And Vulnerability ................................ 17
Chapter 3 ......................................................................................................... 21
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3CLIMATE CHANGE....................................................................................... 21
3.1Global Climate Change And Sea Level Rise .............................................. 21
3.2Sea Level Rise And Nile Delta ................................................................. 22
3.3Implication Of Climate Change And Sea Level Rise On Nile Delta .......... 25
3.4Vulnerability Of Coastal Region:............................................................. 26
3.4.1Focus Zone: ................................................................................. 26
3.4.2Methodology Of Assessment: ........................................................ 27
3.5 . Estimation Of The Impact On Low Elevated Coastal Zones Of The Coastal
Region: ........................................................................................................ 28
3.5.1Estimation Of Impacted Distribution By Region (Governorate) In
LECZ Of Alexandria, El Beheira And Kafr El Shiekh: ............................ 30
3.5.2Estimation Of Impacted Population In LECZ Of Alexandria, El
Beheira And Kafr El Shiekh: ................................................................. 31
3.5.3Estimation Of Impact Built Up Areas Located In LECZ Of
Alexandria, El Beheira And Kafr El Shiekh: .......................................... 34
3.5.4Estimation Of Impact Agriculture Lands Areas Located In LECZ Of
Alexandria, El Beheira And Kafr El Shiekh Impact On: ........................ 35
3.5.5Distribution By National Income: ................................................. 38
3.6Conclusion And Reflection: .................................................................... 40
Chapter 4 ........................................................................................................ 43
4Hard Measures In Coping With SLR ............................................................. 43
4.1Current Coastal Protection ...................................................................... 43
4.2Sea Level Rise Design Responses ............................................................ 44
4.3Resistance: Hard Engineering Approaches ............................................. 47
4.3.1Groin ................................................................................. 48
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4.3.2Seawall And Dikes ........................................................................ 48
4.3.3Offshore Breakwater .................................................................... 50
4.3.4Artificial Headland ........................................................................ 51
4.3.5Examples Of New Technologies ..................................................... 51
4.3.6Maeslant Barrier Rotterdam ......................................................... 51
4.4Implication Of Hard Engineering: ........................................................... 53
4.5Alexandria: Case Study For Resistant Paradigm: ..................................... 54
4.5.1Historical Evolution And Present Circumstances: ......................... 55
4.5.2Alexandria Development Pathways .............................................. 57
4.5.3Shore Line Analysis: Measures For Coastal Protection For
Alexandria 58
4.6Implication Of Flooding Event On The Coastal Area Of Alexandria ........ 64
4.6.1Protected Areas: ........................................................................... 64
4.6.2Unprotected Areas: ...................................................................... 65
4.6.3Assessment Of The Adaptation Measure Implemented In The City
Of Alexandria ................................................................................. 68
4.7Implementation Of Hard Measures: ....................................................... 68
4.7.1Softening The Shoreline ................................................................ 69
Chapter 5 ......................................................................................................... 74
5PARADIGM SHIFT ....................................................................................... 74
5.1Introduction To Paradigm Shift ............................................................... 74
5.2Models For National And International Action ........................................ 76
5.3Flood Design Practices ............................................................................ 78
5.3.1Hafen City-Hamburg: ................................................................... 78
Chapter 6 ........................................................................................................ 82
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6CASE STUDY 2: NEW MOTOBUS ................................................................ 82
6.1Development Pathways Along The Nile Delta: ........................................ 82
6.2Coastal Planning Laws: .......................................................................... 83
6.3Case Study 2: New Motobus ................................................................... 84
6.3.1Location And Site Analysis: ........................................................... 84
6.4Current Proposed Master Plan: .............................................................. 86
6.5Methodology: ......................................................................................... 88
6.6Setting The Goals ................................................................................... 89
6.7Defining The Strategies: ......................................................................... 89
6.8Measures For Increase Community Resilience ........................................ 91
6.9Off Shore Measures: ............................................................................... 92
6.9.1Artificial Reefs: ............................................................................. 92
6.10Ecological Buffer Zone: ......................................................................... 92
6.10.1Wetlands .................................................................................... 93
6.10.2Shore Stabilization Structures ..................................................... 94
6.10.3Advantages Of Soft Measures:..................................................... 95
6.11Inland Development .............................................................................. 96
6.11.1Zoning And Setbacks ................................................................... 96
6.11.2Building Codes And Regulations: ................................................ 98
6.11.3Compact Design Development .................................................... 101
6.12Green Infrastructure And Roads: ........................................................ 102
6.12.1Open Spaces: ............................................................................. 102
6.12.2Storm Water Management: ....................................................... 103
6.12.3Roads: 103
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7Conclusion ................................................................................................... 105
References: ..................................................................................................... 111
List Of Figures: .............................................................................................. 120
List Of Meeting .............................................................................................. 125
Arabic Summary ............................................................................................ 128
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List of Figures
Figure 1 : Methodological Frame Work .............................................................. 5
Figure 2: Resilience and Resistance related terms ........................................... 10
Figure 3: Climate Change and the coastal system showing the major climate
change factors, including external marine and terrestrial influence. ................ 12
Figure 4: Conceptual Model of Resistance, Resilience and Vulnerability ......... 18
Figure 5: Global GHG emissions in the absence of climate policies ................. 22
Figure 6: The world vulnerable coastal deltas: ................................................ 23
Figure 7: Nile Delta ......................................................................................... 24
Figure 8: Impact of 0.5m SLR on the Nile Delta .............................................. 24
Figure 9: Impact of 1m SLR on the Nile Delta ................................................. 25
Figure 10: Geographical allocation of Alexandria, El Behiera and Kafr El Shiekh
....................................................................................................................... 27
Figure 11: Low Elevated Coastal Zones (Digital Elevation Model) of Alexandria,
El Behiera and Kafr El Shiekh ......................................................................... 29
Figure 12: Geographical Distribution of Population Density in Alexandria, El
Beheira and Kafr El Shiekh ............................................................................. 33
Figure 13: Geographical Distribution of Low Elevated Urban Areas Vulnerable
to 0.25, 0.5 and 1 m SLR in Alexandria, El Beheira and Kafr El Shiekh ........... 35
Figure 11 : Geographical Distribution of Low Elevated Agriculture lands
Vulnerable to 0.25, 0.5 and 1 m SLR in Alexandria, El Beheira and Kafr El
Shiekh ............................................................................................................. 37
Figure 15: Geographical distribution of GDP per Capita in Alexandria, El
Beheira and Kafr El Shiekh ............................................................................. 39
Figure 16: Current protection Status of the Coastal Region ............................. 44
Figure 17: Adaptation Strategies Response ...................................................... 46
Figure 18: Groin Design .................................................................................. 48
Figure 19: Undermining of a seawall built on a high energy coastline ............. 50
Figure 20: Maeslant Barrier ............................................................................ 52
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Figure 21: The Dutch Oosterschelde Storm Surge Barrier ................................ 53
Figure 22: Alexandria Historical Evolution ....................................................... 57
Figure 23: Alexandria shoreline ...................................................................... 60
Figure 24: Alexandria Shoreline cont. .............................................................. 61
Figure 25: shore line evolution from 1950-2010
Figure 26: Effects of 2010 storm wave on coast ............................................... 65
Figure 27: Unprotected community of Abu Qir (Urban Poor) .......................... 67
Figure 28: Break Water Tower ......................................................................... 71
Figure 92 : A step-type seawall incorporating a bench of both mangroves and
saltmarsh......................................................................................................... 72
Figure 30: Shots of the seawall at KogarahBay, Georges River, showing a step-
type seawall with a bench of salt marsh vegetation. ......................................... 72
Figure 31: Hafen City Master Plan ................................................................... 79
Figure 32: Residential units overhanging a waterfront .................................... 79
Figure 33 : Elevated Roads in Hafen City ........................................................ 80
Figure 34: Open Spaces in Hafen City ............................................................. 80
Figure 35: Proposed Strategic Land use Plan for the Nile Delta ...................... 83
Figure 36: Regional Analysis of New Motobus ................................................ 85
Figure 37: The evolution of the Rosetta Shoreline during the past two centuries
....................................................................................................................... 86
Figure 38: Current proposal for Motobus ...................................................... 88
Figure 39: Division of Coastal Area ................................................................. 92
Figure 40: Scenarios for different lot subdivision and setbacks for mitigation
and reduce impact associated with flooding .................................................... 97
Figure 41: Scenarios for different lot subdivision and setbacks for mitigation
and reduce impact associated with flooding cont. .......................................... 98
Figure 42: Shore line transect illustrate Zones Classification of recommended
Buildings ....................................................................................................... 101
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List of Tables
Table 1: Comparative Analysis between two paradigms of Resistance and
Resilience (Source Author) .............................................................................. 15
Table 2: The Population and area of Aleandria, Behiera and Kafr El Shiekh .... 27
Table 3: Low Elevated Coastal areas with high potential impact on Alexandria,
El Beheira and Kafr El Shiekh ......................................................................... 30
Table 4: Estimation of the Impacted Population to the SLR, in Alexandria,
Beheira and Kafr Elshiekh Governorate ........................................................... 31
Table 5: Estimation of the Impacted Urban Area to the SLR, in Alexandria,
Beheira and Kafr Elshiekh Governorate ...........................................................34
Table 6: Estimation of the Impacted Agriculture Lands to the SLR, in
Alexandria, Beheira and Kafr Elshiekh Governorate ........................................36
Table 7: Disadvantages of Hard Measures ....................................................... 53
Table 8: Lessons of nature applicable to Design and Construction (Source:
Watoson D. and Adams M. 2011) ..................................................................... 75
Table 9: FEMA Federal Emergency Management and Assistance (FEMA) Flood
Plain Management Strategies .......................................................................... 76
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1
Chapter 1
1 Introduction
1.1 Problem Definition
Climate change, the world upcoming threat, is predicted to have dramatic
effects on the coastal communities with associated impact of; sea level rise,
storms surges, flooding events, erosion and other natural hazard (IPCC 2007).
Sea Level Rise (SLR), will be one of the major consequence of CC on the coastal
regions, associated with stresses such as flooding risks, high erosion rate, salt
water intrusion and many other natural hazard. Along with other non climatic
stresses that interact with the CC which include, over exploitation of resources,
pollution, decrease in the availability of fresh water, sediment reduction and
urbanization (Nicholls and Branson, 1998). This will represent an additional
stresses to the socio-economic and environmental aspect with special regard on
systems that undergo continues and growing pressure accompanied. This
constitute one of the major challenges to the coastal development, which is the
integration of the physical, social and economic processes and the associated
uncertainty of its dynamic nature (Nicholls and Branson, 1998).
The Egyptian coast is highly vulnerable to the impact of sea level rise (OECD
2004) Such a rise in sea level will significantly impact coastal areas in Egypt.
The Nile delta is highly exposed to several climate-change related hazards and
risks. In the context of assessing the impact of sea level rise on the Egyptian
coast, there are major challenges that affect Egypt's northern coast when it
comes to current and upcoming climatic changes.
2
1.2 Scope and objectives
The value of this study is to the aim to guide stakeholder in coastal communities
to develop more resilient strategies, plans, agendas, to confront the threat of
SLR. The main aim is to transform the current mind set of the effects of climate
change away from defense and opposition to that adapt and even prosper in
time of uncertainty; and to understand and explain the idea of resistance and
resilience and understand the consequences of each development paradigm by
investigating the capacities and vulnerabilities of each system and approach,
upon accepting that hard engineering solution are robust and outdated.
Main objective trying to understand the difference in approaching the issue of
SLR when it comes to complex existing cities (Alexandria) and new virgin cities
(motorbus) by tackling the two paradigms of resilience and resistance.
Table (1) presents the main aim and objectives of the study in hand.
Aim Objective Chapter
Investigate main
theories and
definition
To define the concept of coastal
landscape and boundaries of
coastal system
To understand resistance and
resilience and vulnerability
concepts and their interrelation
Chapter 2
Explore different
Coastal systems
vulnerability
To explore global climate
change's effect on sea level rise in
Egypt
Setting fact base and calculation
of Vulnerability
Chapter 3
Present Current
adaptation
measures
To understand coastal evolution
of area under investigation
Resistant Paradigm and hard
measures in Alexandria
Chapter 4
3
Aim Objective Chapter
Understanding
global adaptation
models to SLR
Understanding the need in
Shifting Paradigm
Chapter 5
New Coastal
Development
Understanding threats that
confront new development of the
coast
Proposing guide lines and
understanding for new
development
Chapter 6
1.3 Research Hypothesis
Currently, methods of resistance (Hard Measures) are being implemented to
protect coastal landscape and environment, this result in continuous natural
degradation, misuse of the natural resource and causing robust and disengaged
relationship between human and the natural environment, seeking more of
establishing economical foundations rather than any environmental
consideration. Never the less encouraging overuse, and discouraging
conservation, which could be significant to adaptation to the impacts of climate
change.
This paper is to postulate that in dealing and planning new cities, resilience is a
paradigm in dealing with new urban developments. As it offer more holistic
approach in tackling and handling change.
The study will be based on the assumption that coastal development in new
coastal cities like Motobus will not be conducted as a continuation of the former
pathways, or existing practices, in the coastal development (as for instance in
Alexandria). This is not just based on a mere hypothetical assumption but
rather the projection of the trends and development pathways that are evident
now.
4
This will start by exploring the Egyptian experience in dealing with flooding and
coastal dynamics, which is claimed hereby to be a resistant approach.
Therefore, it is important to study the biggest example of dealing with sea level
rise in Egypt Delta applying resistant strategies, and to search for an alternative
example to go from here to more suitable and future-oriented cases.
The aim is to provide comprehensive strategies for new coastal cities taking into
account the dynamics between nature and society, not just resisting change but
also possibly embracing it. This approach targets to set the foundations for a
new resilient strategy, characterized by flexibility, cost efficiency, achieved by
embedding the society into the natural context.
The coastal development is still undergoing in the highly vulnerable areas,
hence the need for a new paradigm to be proposed at New Motobus (extension
of the existing city) or newly developed coastal cities, unlike previous measures
that were used in complex cities.
1.4 Methodology:
The study will be based on collective research on different practices in dealing
with the coastal region and protection measures. Upon the completion of
defining the main objectives, the study will start by defining and
conceptualizing the main concepts of Resilience and Resistance and set the base
for understanding its relation with the coastal communities and setting the
main framework. Following, it will set a fact base and understanding of the Nile
Region (The Selected Zone). Then will continue by analysis of the current
practice along the region with a focus study on Alexandria as the biggest
example in dealing with coastal communities in Egypt. Hence, proposing new
strategies for coastal community of New Motobus. This will be accompanied by
presenting general case studies that propose practical approaches in dealing
with coastal communities.
5
Figure 1 : Methodological Frame Work
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2 Chapter 2
Theoretical Framework
The following chapter is an attempt to Defining (Conceptualizing) the
characteristics and factors that develop Resistant and Resilient and the
interplay of the dynamic relation between them with regard to periods of
gradual change (the impact of sea level rise and not to withstand that these
relations change depending on the temporal, social, and spatial scale)
2.1 Introduction to the Concept of Resistance
In broad terms, resistance is defined as “the refusal to accept or comply with
something”. (Oxford Dictionaries). In ecological literature the concept of
resistance describes the intention of the system of avoiding and fending off
disturbance. In the first place, this implies the refusal to change, taking every
measure necessary to not let the threatening event happen (Kline 1998). The
general stance of a resistant attitude can be described as violent and determined
opposition. So resistance is directly related to preventing or protecting
measures, which means every effort is done to make it impossible for a
particular event to happen. This necessarily leads to a high level of protective
measures and, consequently, to high cost as argued by (Klein and Nicholls
1999)
Further, it is important to note that a resistant attitude or philosophy inherently
implies not considering the failure of the protective system as a realistic option,
since everything is done is done to prevent it happening. Hence, no provisions
usually are taken to react to, or cope with, the (as perceived) effects and
consequences of an unlikely, or even impossible, failure of the system under
strain. This drawback can be considered as one of the main weaknesses of
resistant philosophies.
8
For this reason, adaptive change or accommodation to the effects of a hazard
are not envisaged, and hence no provisions taken for it, in a resistant system. In
a sense, there is only on definitive line of defense.
2.2 Introduction to the Concept of Resilience
The term resilience has become a prominent topic that recently emerged in
dealing with changes and confined within the discourse on climatic change. The
resilience concept was originally introduced by Holling, (1973) in the field of
ecology aims at understanding the dynamic development process of ecosystem
and the maintenance of their functions.
The resilience of a system is defined by two ways in the ecological literature,
with different character in achieving stability. The first was introduced by
Holling C. S in 1973, who defined it as the ability of a system to persist its
relationships in times of disturbances, and resist the displacement from its
original state. However, this, in a strict sense, also applies to most resistant
systems. The question thus appears to be crucial to which degree the resilient
system is willing and capacitated to diverge from its original state, before
returning to it eventually. Here lies another fundamental difference to resistant
systems. This measure is significantly smaller in the case of resistant systems.
In this context, resilience is considered as the time or speed in which the system
returns to a pre-existing condition after disturbance; it is defined as
“engineering resilience” (Holling, C. S. 1996). A clear distinction needs to be
done in understanding, the difference between the resistance and engineering
resilience. They both address the common domain of stability (pre-existing,
referenced state). However, resilience, with its explicitly temporal dimension, is
constituted characteristically by the time of return. Resistance, on the other
hand, offers more robustness but shows more inflexibility.
The other definition of resilience, defined as “ecological resilience”, of Ecology
(Holling, C. S. 1996) is the commonly used definition. The approach was then
9
introduced within different disciplines and extended to various fields. Walker
et. al. (2004) defined resilience as follows: “Resilience is the capacity of a
system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as
to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks.”
The approach was then introduced within different disciplines and extended in
various fields. Walker et. al. (9001) defined resilience as “the capacity of a
system to absorb disturbance and re-organize while undergoing change so as to
still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity and feedbacks”. The
appearance of the perspective of socio-ecological systems by Folke, C et. al.
(2002) draws an emphasis on the role of the actors involved and their role as an
integral part in the decision process of increasing the adaptability of the system.
Resilience, as a general concept, can be described both in a literal and a
figurative sense. The former is applied to a material or object which is capable
of returning or springing back into its initial shape after having undergone
significant deformations, for example under the action of force. The latter is
used for characterizing any organism or system which is able to recover quickly
from severe difficulties, also to be understood as a sign of toughness. The
crucial feature of this strategy or capacity, especially as opposed to the converse
concept of resistance, is the ability of the system under strain to adapt initially
to the external action, at the same time undergoing significant change. The
capacity to absorb change but to subsequently return to the initial state without
significant disturbance, hence, is one of the main features of resilient systems
and stands in stark contrast to the point-blank refusal of resistant systems to
admit changes.
10
Figure 2: Resilience and Resistance related terms
2.3 Shifting Concepts of Landscape
The term landscape was frequently almost exclusively associated with beautiful
sceneries of meadows, forests, greenery, mountains, etc. However, the recent
definition of landscape acquires a meaning which goes far beyond "beautiful
landscapes"(Seggern H et, al 2012). The boundaries of the system are not easily
defined given the dynamics and frequent changes confronting the coast. Coastal
ecosystems are among the most productive, and yet highly vulnerable,
environmental systems in the world—as they are essential for services’
provision (UNEP 2011). At the same time, these systems are confronting rapid
environmental degradation as a consequence of frequent land mismanagement
and urbanization.
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2.4 Resilience of Landscapes
The concept of Resilience and the new perception of landscape both offer better
understanding in adapting and managing the dynamics of systems. According
to Prominki, M. (2010), the new landscape concepts consider planning and
designing landscapes as operations with evolutionary systems and recognize the
interaction of man and environment. The resilience concept can be considered a
nonlinear approach dealing with the dynamics and uncertainty of disturbances.
Hence, understanding landscapes with respect to resilience to climatic change is
a prominent topic in planning and designing coastal landscapes that is
confronting changes
2.5 Comparative Analysis of Resistance and
Resilience as a System and Response Paradigms
Nicholls, R.J., (2007) defined coastal systems as "the interacting low-lying areas
and shallow coastal waters, including their human components. This includes
adjoining coastal lowlands,” […]. “In addition to local drivers and interactions,
coasts are subject to external events that pose a hazard to human activities and
may compromise the natural functioning of coastal systems" (See fig. 3). [p.318]
The coast system is subjected in many terms to external events that impose
damages to human activities and threaten the natural balance of the coastal
system. Beaches, rocky shorelines and cliffed coasts differ from deltas, Estuaries
and lagoons, Mangroves, salt marshes and sea grasses, coral reefs. Severe
consequences for human society and activities on freshwater resources,
agriculture, forestry and fisheries, Human settlements, infrastructure and
migration, human health, biodiversity, recreation and tourism result (Nicholls,
R.J., 2007)
12
Figure 3: Climate Change and the coastal system showing the major climate change factors,
including external marine and terrestrial influence.
It remains unclear though the dynamics of the development confronting the
coastal systems in dealing with climatic change. Resilience is not necessarily
desirable in systems were social and economical aspects play an important role
(e.g. complex-mega cities). Hence these systems can be highly resistant to
change and seeking more stability rather than adaptability. Systems could
be resistant, yet not resilient (Ahmed, A. K. 2006). Therefore an
understanding of the interrelation of these development paradigms needs to be
done with distinguishing between resistance management and resilience
governance.
The following section tries to conceptualize the main concept behind the
resistant and resilience paradigms.
2.5.1 Resistance and Resistance Management
In case of external threat like SLR, regardless of the magnitude of the impact,
whether high or low, the associated consequences will initiate a disruption,
metaphorically described as a domino effect, causing the disturbances as well in
13
the attached complex sub-systems of economic, physical, natural, social and
institutional. This could be derived whether, because no former provisions were
taken to cope with the hazard, or relying on one defense line in which any
deformation will cause the penetration of risk into the unprepared adjacent
system. This leads to a high level of measures, to high cost, which is a drawback
of his attitude.
In terms of response to external threat, the paradigm towards Resistant
Management can be considered a rigid top-down approach, a sole purview
of the state through government, which domineers or patronize the community.
Resistant systems tend to be highly centralized. Achieving a very high level of
security (resistance) requires also a tight management, which in turn requires
centralized structures. Community is a man-made system, which to a certain
extent is alien to, and threatened by, the natural hazard, which subsequently
tends to threaten the integrity of the community
This can be considered a typical approach of resistant systems directed towards
the prevention of the system from transforming into a new configuration when
exposed to external threat (SLR). It could be assessed and measured by the
Flexibility and mobilization of assets that keeps the functioning of the
community that if lost or damaged, and could cause significant disruption,
which includes jeopardizing social capital (population density and social
vulnerability, cultural asset, etc), Physical built and critical infrastructure
(building densities, construction, )..
2.5.2 Resilience and Resilience Governance
On the other hand, in recent literature, scholars defined Resilience as
“….related to three different characteristics: (a) the magnitude of shock that
the system can absorb and remain within a given state; (b) the degree to
which the system is capable of self-organization, and (c) the degree to which
the system can build capacity for learning and adaptation.” (C., Folk, cited by
Ahmed, A. K. 2006).
14
The main aspect is that it is presenting a yielding capacity of the system
allowing the hazard, but at the same time having the ability to return back to its
original state or transforming into a new state without massive disruption. A
resilient system that allows too severe damages is will not be able to deploy
its advantages because this will prevent the system from returning to its original
state. So it’s always also an issue to keep the negative effects of the hazards
within a tolerable limit. A crucial point is the capacity to return to the original
state without suffering significant damage.
The impact associated with the hazard, high or low impact, has a gradual effect
upon the system. Various defense lines cause multiple scales of feedback
between the subsystems that constitute the whole system and allow adaptation
through a learning process, between the individual and the whole community;
and between the community and the surrounding sphere of local and national
or even international scale. Community in this case acts as an integral part of
nature, which absorbs the shock of natural hazard. The resilience approach
emphasizes on the role of the actors and promotes their participation. Different
forms of complexity are to be taken into consideration with a high level of
sophistication in the interrelation between subsystems, combining strong
properties and flexibility. This enables the system to act as a whole in adapting
change.
In the governance theories, it is highly emphasized that response is not just a
top-down approach, but rather interaction between many actors involved,
including the community, private sector, developers, NGOs, etc. (Lebel, L. et al,
2006) The decentralization of institutions, and organizational diversity, support
the capacity of the system (government, community, organizations, etc) to
better handle of the complexity of the systems (Duit, A. et al. 2010).
Table 1, present the summary of the comparative analysis between the two
paradigms.
15
Table 1: Comparative Analysis between two paradigms of Resistance and Resilience (Source
Author)
Resistance
Resilience
Definition The refusal to accept or
comply with change
Capacity of a system to absorb
the disturbance without losing
it main function
Approach Resistance Management
Resilience Governance
Centralized
Top down approach one way
Balance between centralized
and Decentralized
Multi-scale responses
Response Domino effect in case of
external hazard causing the
disruption of the attached
systems of economic, built
physical, natural social and
institutional
Cause multiple scale feedback
allowing learning process,
between individual,
community, local and national
scale and between the
community and the
surrounding environment
Complexity High level of complex robust
configuration, create
Complexity of the system
with its multi-layered flexible
responses, as compared to the
physical complexity of
resistant systems.
Community High dependence on
authorities
Community is integral part
of nature, which absorbs the
shock of natural hazard.
16
2.6 Vulnerability
The high concentration of the economic activities and livelihoods on the coastal
region increase its vulnerability, with high level of impact. The threat that
confronts the coastal region could be highly similar in the magnitude.
Vulnerability as defined by the IPCC is "the degree to which a system is
susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change,
including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the
character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is
exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity"(2001 p.21)
According to the definition of vulnerability, it implies three different concepts in
dealing with perturbation and hazards, which are: exposure, sensitivity and
adaptive capacity.
The former, exposure, Refers to the level of external threat. Some areas are
more exposed than others just because of their geographical location for
instance. This applies to lowlands, which are more susceptible to be flooded. So,
in a sense, exposure is a consequence of external factors related to the context.
On the other hand, sensitivity: This refers to the configuration of the system
itself. Depending on how it reacts to external hazards. A complex system might
be sensitive, a more robust and simple one less sensitive.
Adaptive Capacity – A combination of all the strengths and resources available
within a community, society or organization that can reduce the level of risk,
or the effects of a disaster. (Capacity may include physical, institutional, social
or economic means as well as skilled personal or collective attributes such as
leadership and management. Capacity may also be described as capability.)
(UN/ISDR, 2004 cited by Levina E. and Tirpak D. 2006 [p.9])
Vulnerability is a state prior to response; it does not just depend on the type of
response but also on the external factors that define the threat or hazard.
17
However, some regions can be considered more vulnerable than others
according to various aspects, including the assets available in each zone.
Mueller, B. (2011) showed that there is a lack of common understanding of the
factors that make regions resilient and other vulnerable due to the complex
character that constitute the regional social, economic, cultural and political
systems
2.7 Summary: Resistance, Resilience and
Vulnerability
The concept of risk occurrence contains probability; there are two opposing
paradigms of Dealing with Sea Level Rise: The response paradigms might be
resistant or resilient. Increasing the protection of the coast questionably
increased the resistance of the overall system on account of the resilience (Klein
and Nicholls 1999). There is a necessity to achieve a balanced relation between
the protection of the community-with its economic and social aspects- and the
degradation of the natural environment of the coast.
Resilience and resistance of system is always affected by human influences, but
not necessarily having a negative impact. Planned adaptation can serve to
reduce the vulnerability through enhancing resilience and resistance.
Vulnerability is determined not only by exposure susceptibility of the potential
impact; it will also inherent in the resilience of the system which include the
society’s technical, institutional, economical and cultural capability to prevent
or to cope with change (Turner et al 2003).
18
Figure 4: Conceptual Model of Resistance, Resilience and Vulnerability
19
20
21
Chapter 3
3 CLIMATE CHANGE
The main aim of this chapter is offer better understanding of the coastal region
and explore the potential impact of SLR on Nile Delta that act as a fact base.
The analysis will be selected three governorates Kafr El Sheikh, El Beheira,
Alexandria.
3.1 Global Climate Change and Sea Level Rise
The climate change is inevitable, the upcoming global threat confronting
especially the coastal communities. Global SLR is the most recorded and
obvious consequences of climate change. It is an issue that threats and
contributes to multitude of high risks especially to highly populated coastal
communities, infrastructure and natural resources. The major challenges of CC
include, rising temperatures, changing precipitation rate, and increasing
frequencies of extreme weather conditions, the rise of the global mean sea level,
frequent flooding, shoreline erosion, and many other natural hazards. Sea level
Rise is a result of different natural phenomena and more resulted from
anthropogenic reasons. The continuous increase in green house gas emissions
resulted in the SLR due to the ocean’s thermal expansion, glacial melt from
Greenland and Antarctica, which are the most dominating factors affecting SLR
(Dasgupta, et al., 2007). The melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
holds amounts of water that can increase sea level rise almost by 70m
(Elsharkawy H., 2009). Global scenarios present high uncertainties regarding
the variation of SLR. Estimate of SLR in this century by the IPCC projections
(Fourth Assessment report 2007) are between 0.18 and 0.59 m by the end of
22
the century (sea fig. 4). However, more recent global scenarios also indicated,
suggesting higher global SLR by the year 2100, ranging between 80 and 200 cm
(Pfeffer et al.2008) and 50–140 cm (Rahmstorf 2007)
Figure 5: Global GHG emissions in the absence of climate policies
3.2 Sea Level Rise and Nile Delta
SLR is one of the major challenges that confront the Egyptian North Coast. The
Nile Delta is among the most vulnerable coastal Deltas to the impact of SLR
with settled population above one million local inhabitants.
23
Figure 6: The world vulnerable coastal deltas:
Presenting the Nile Delta potential population to be displaced by 2050 (Extreme = >1 million;
High = 1 million to 50,000; Medium = 50,000 to 5,000)
The Nile delta is extended from Alexandria in the west to Port Said in the east;
cover about 240 km of the Mediterranean Sea coast line. It is one of the main
resource supplies for Egypt. It is rich with it diverse coastal systems,
agriculture, aquaculture, and is highly vulnerable to inundation and salt water
intrusion from the projected SLR (OECD 2004). Nile Delta is highly vulnerable
to several climate-change threats with almost 30% of Nile delta vulnerable to
SLR. Gharib, S. et al., (2013) evidence from 6 beach locations in Egypt has been
assessed during the period from 1939 to 1980, which showed that, during those
fifty years, the sea level increased by an amount of about 11.35 centimeters. This
area Rosetta and Damietta on the Mediterranean coast, as the studies have
confirmed, experienced a significant decline in the shore line in the modern era
in comparison to what it was in the nineteenth century (Source Frihy. O, Khafay
1991). (See fig. 6, 7 and 8)
24
Figure 7: Nile Delta
Figure 8: Impact of 0.5m SLR on the Nile Delta
25
Figure 9: Impact of 1m SLR on the Nile Delta
3.3 Implication of Climate Change and Sea Level
Rise on Nile Delta
High population is settled in low-lying coastal regions, the majority of
population will be affected the impact of SLR. SLR will be associated with other
events which are as following:
1. Coastal Erosion due to the extreme weather conditions that drive
storm-surges towards coastal cities that increase the erosion rate which
is a result of currents to beaches with gradual shift and deposition of
sand in another area. The rates of this phenomenon have already
increased after the construction of the High Dam due to the loss of
ecological balance, which led to large quantities of silt being deposited
on the beach (Gharib S., et al 2013).
2. Land subsidence, which can be perceived as a virtual rise in sea level due
to tectonic changes in the earth's crust of the region is another evident
phenomenon. It is also influenced by the high rate of pumping
26
groundwater or oil Gharib, et al 2013). The measurements conducted
during the last five decades revealed that the sea level rose about 2 mm /
year in Alexandria and 4 mm / year in Port Said (El Raey 1999).
3.4 Vulnerability of Coastal Region:
Climate change will increase the risk for coastal population and urban
settlements, especially for the highly concentrated population in low elevated
areas, or directly exposed with no protection (Feiden, P. 2011). This will pose
stresses on the coastal region and will contribute with high shares in rendering
the human communities and coastal landscapes into a different configuration
(Mcgranahan, G., Balk, D. and Anderson, B. 2007).
The migration from the coastal areas could require huge external forces and
efforts, and would be associated with high cost and would be very difficult to
implement without massive disturbance. It is liable to develop into a central
questions for individuals, policy makers, and will centre on the issue of how will
be a high degree of resilience (adaptation) of the coastal communities
(landscapes) attained.
The following section seeks to understand different socio-economical and
natural parameters that contribute to the vulnerability of the coastal regions
and to understand what makes coastal regions to be considered more
vulnerable than others, even with relatively equal share in the potential threat.
3.4.1 Focus zone:
The analysis of the following study will be conducted in the coastal area of three
governorates, Alexandria, Behiera and Kafr El Shiekh (see fig. 9). The available
data will be considered in the assessment and used in analyzing the distribution
of the population, function, uses and properties of the coastal regions. This will
be conducted through assessing the size and magnitude of the impact of SLR on
human livelihoods and the distribution of population along the coast (selected
Zone), trying to give an overview of scale and magnitude of the potential SLR.
27
Table2, presents the total area of the governorate and population according to
the area gathered from Geo database and CAPMAS (2006)
Table 2: The Population and area of Aleandria, Behiera and Kafr El Shiekh
Area sq.km Population (mil)
Alexandria 2.93004E+15 4.3
El Beheira 6.36896E+15 3.97
Kafr El Shiekh 2.94305E+15 2.6
Figure 10: Geographical allocation of Alexandria, El Behiera and Kafr El Shiekh
3.4.2 Methodology of assessment:
The following analysis it adapted from integrating recent spatial geo-database
(GIS) - adopted from the GOPP on the Nile Delta- The assessment is based
upon the different coastal layers provided, of topography, buildup, water
aquaculture, vacant-undeveloped land, governorate and administrative limits.
28
The added data set of the 2006 population (CAPMAS) and GDP1 per capita.
Based on the available data, the analysis has been developed by overlaying of
data input. Overlaying of the available data with consideration of the 0.25, 0.5
and 1 meters SLR scenarios, the precision of the data can be considerably
influenced by the overlay of the geographic data set and its accuracy.
3.5 Estimation of the Impact on Low Elevated
Coastal Zones of the Coastal region:
On a regional perspective, high percentage of land area, population and
economic activities are present in areas located below mean sea level in the Nile
Delta.
Figure 10 present the topography of the three governorates Alexandria, Beheira
and Kafr El Shiekh; showing that high percentage of the governorates areas are
located in Low Elevated Coastal Zone (LECZ) and highly exposed to the impact
of SLR.
1 GDP per Capita according to the (Human development report 2003) were the highest district republic wise is Ma'adi of 19274 GDP per Capita and 1753.4 is in Dar EL Salam
29
Figure 11: Low Elevated Coastal Zones (Digital Elevation Model) of Alexandria, El Behiera and
Kafr El Shiekh
30
3.5.1 Estimation of impacted Distribution by Region
(Governorate) in LECZ of Alexandria, El Beheira and
Kafr El Shiekh:
Vast areas of land in the governorates will face high impact associated with the
threat of SLR as high percentage of the land allocated in low coastal zone areas.
El Behiera has an estimate of 14% (904.9 sq. km) of its total area to be lost in
case of 0.25 SLR, following Kafr El Shiekh and Alexandria of 8.7% (259.5
sq.km) and 9.5% (356.8 sq.km) of total governorate areas (See table 3). This
includes high fertile agriculture lands, urban settlements, water bodies
(including fish farms, lakes, wetlands, salt marches) and other vacant or
undeveloped lands.
Table 3: Low Elevated Coastal areas with high potential impact on Alexandria, El Beheira and
Kafr El Shiekh
Alexandria El Behiera Kafr El Shiekh
Current Area
Sq. km 2930.03 6368.95 3736.13
0.25m SLR
Sq. km 256.57 904.99 356.89
% 8.7% 14.2% 9.5%
Num. of
districts 11 7 9
0.5m SLR
Sq. km 276.33 1010.66 601.17
% 9.4% 15.8% 16.0%
Num. of
districts 12 7 11
1m SLR
Sq. km 301.25 1731.60 2060.71
% 10.2% 27.1% 55.1%
31
Num. of
districts 12 8 12
3.5.2 Estimation of impacted population in LECZ of
Alexandria, El Beheira and Kafr El Shiekh:
Coastal populations are at high risk from SLR. It becomes evident from the
variation of the district areas and the distribution of the population along the
coastal zone. Figure 12, presents the geographical distribution of population
density based on the statistical calculation of the population on the district area,
mainly to show the higher concentration of population along the region. Kafr El
Shiekh and El Beheira have considerable lower population density concentrated
in the coastal region in comparison to Alexandria. The population of low
elevated areas, in the selected focus zone, amounts to about 1.8 million
inhabitants of the total of the focus zone population. They are highly vulnerable
to the threat of seawater intrusion, which is due to the fact that about 16% of the
total population is located in prone areas. Based on the estimation of the
impacted Population exposed to the SLR, in Alexandria, Beheira and Kafr
ElShiekh in absolute numbers, the potential population located in LECZ, is
estimated to be 1.25 million inhabitants for 0.25m SLR and 1.5, 1.92 million
inhabitants for 0.5 and 1 meter SLR, making 29, 35, 44% of the total percentage
of the governorate with no consideration of the high growth rate the city is
witnessing. (See table 4). Following, El Behiera governorate, in which 0.47,
0.53, 1.15 million inhabitant living in LECZ will be highly vulnerable for 0.25,
0.5 and 1m SLR consequentially; making 12, 13 and 29% of total population of
the governorate. Finally Karf El-Shiekh, 0.0982, 0.14 and 0.20 million
inhabitants are vulnerable for 0.25, 0.5 and 1m SLR.
Table 4: Estimation of the Impacted Population to the SLR, in Alexandria, Beheira and Kafr
Elshiekh Governorate
0.25m SLR 0.5m SLR 1m SLR
32
Populati
on
(Mil)
% of
Governo
rate
Populati
on
% of
Governo
rate
Populati
on
% of
Governo
rate
Alex. 1.25 29.09 1.518 35.31 1.92 44.73
Beheira 0.47 12.07 0.534 13.46 1.151 29.00
Kafr 0.098 3.77 0.145 5.60 0.204 7.88
Total 1.82
2.198
3.280
33
Figure 12: Geographical Distribution of Population Density in Alexandria, El Beheira and Kafr El
Shiekh
34
3.5.3 Estimation of Impact built up areas located in LECZ
of Alexandria, El Beheira and Kafr El Shiekh:
It is highly evident that there is a considerable variation in the distribution of
urbanization, so as the distribution of population in LECZ, (Fig.13). The highest
shares of population densities are concentrated and living in districts with high
urbanization rate, which is the coastal zone of Alexandria.
A total area of 40.66 sq. km is allocated in low elevated coastal zone of the focus
zone. An area of 21.79 sq. km is located in low elevated coastal zone area of
Alexandria, and will be impacted by 0.25 m SLR making 21.78sq. km 24.6 % of
total urban settlement, whether urban cities or rural communities. Followed by
El Beheira with 15.31 sq. km counting 24% of total urban area, finally Kafr El
Shiekh with the least percentage of low elevated coastal urban areas making
3.57 sq. km.
Table 5: Estimation of the Impacted Urban Area to the SLR, in Alexandria, Beheira and Kafr
Elshiekh Governorate
0.25m SLR 0.5m SLR 1m SLR
Area sq.
km
% of
Urban
Area
Area sq.
km
% of
Urban
Area
Area sq.
km
% of
Urban
Area
Alex. 21.78 24.67 26.38 29.884 33.33 37.75
Beheira 15.31 11.88 16.89 13.10 35.15 27.28
Kafr 3.57 3.97 5.63 6.26 25.85 28.77
Total 40.66
48.9
94.33
35
Figure 13: Geographical Distribution of Low Elevated Urban Areas Vulnerable to 0.25, 0.5 and 1
m SLR in Alexandria, El Beheira and Kafr El Shiekh
3.5.4 Estimation of Impact Agriculture lands areas
located in LECZ of Alexandria, El Beheira and Kafr
El Shiekh Impact on:
The agricultural sector is one of the main productive sectors of the Nile Delta. It
will be highly impacted considering that vast areas are allocated in the low
elevated coastal zone (see figure 14).
36
El Beheira acquires the highest share in the agriculture areas, being considered
one of the main land use activities. An area of 813 sq.km (13.42%) will be highly
exposed in case of 0.25 SLR; and increase in case of 1m SLR to 25.4% of the
total area. Followed by Kafr El Shiekh making in absolute figures area of 257.89
sq. km, in case of 0.25 m SLR and reaching area of 1375.2 sq km making 46.7%
of the agriculture lands. Alexandria comes last in the agriculture area lost,
making up an area of 99.6 sq.km of 12.7% of agriculture land, with slight
relative increase in case of 1m SLR an area of 103.76 sq. km. (see table 6)
Table 6: Estimation of the Impacted Agriculture Lands to the SLR, in Alexandria, Beheira and
Kafr Elshiekh Governorate
0.25m SLR 0.5m SLR 1m SLR
Area sq.
km
% of
Agricultu
re Land
Area sq.
km
% of
Agricultu
re Land
Area sq.
km
% of
Agricultu
re Land
Alex. 99.6 12.78% 102.3 13.13% 103.76 13.30%
Beheira 813 13.42% 890.9 14% 1539.17 25.40%
Kafr 257.89 6.90% 404.27 13.70% 1375.2 46.70%
Total 1170.49
1397.47
3018.13
37
Figure 11 : Geographical Distribution of Low Elevated Agriculture lands Vulnerable to 0.25, 0.5
and 1 m SLR in Alexandria, El Beheira and Kafr El Shiekh
38
3.5.5 Distribution by National Income:
The vulnerability of coastal areas against coastal hazards depends partially on
its contribution to the GDP per capita. It is not necessarily that coastal regions
with high population have higher contribution to the GDP. However, it is highly
noticeable from the high shares of Alexandria’s population to the GDP. This is
associated to its regional and economic importance. Figure 15 presents the
geographical distribution of GDP per Capita in Alexandria, El Beheira and Kafr
El Shiekh. District with high contribution to the GDP are mostly located in
Alexandria, otherwise the share is similar in its contribution to the GDP.
Coastal districts with lower contribution to the GDP do not underscore the
lower vulnerability, however high contribution of a district to the GDP leads to
taking more part in the political negotiation in confronting the threat of SLR.
39
Figure 15: Geographical distribution of GDP per Capita in Alexandria, El Beheira and Kafr El
Shiekh
40
3.6 Conclusion and reflection:
Climate change is an inevitable phenomenon that has major consequences on
the coastal regions. The Nile delta is one of the most vulnerable Deltas in the
world, as high area percentage is located in low lying areas that makes SLR will
have high contribution to natural and human environment recourses losses.
This will urge global, governmental, nongovernmental, individuals at different
scales to contribute to mitigate the risk associated with the hazard.
Upon the completion of the geographical distribution of the statistical analysis
on the coastal region and understanding the potential threat confronting the
area, the planning approach need to direct preliminary adaptation efforts that
increase ability of the urban community to cope with change, a new approach to
better understanding of the risks and the impact associated with the hazard
with consideration of Incremental change.
On the regional perspective, it gives a geographical presentation and relation
between the coastal districts, in terms of regional importance, economic and
population concentration that contribute higher to the political negotiations in
SLR risk reduction.
Alexandria in comparison to the other coastal governorates (El Beheira and
Karf El Shiekh) has the highest shares of attention, not only because of its
regional and political importance, but also high concentration of socio-
economic activities. It is considered the biggest example in the country that
deals with coastal problems in will be analyzed in a later section of this
document.
41
42
43
Chapter 4
4 Hard Measures in Coping with SLR
This chapter will try to explore the general measures that are commonly used to
prevent flooding into the coastal communities and investigate its impact on the
coastal communities. Then will present Alexandria as an example for the
biggest example for coastal protection.
4.1 Current Coastal protection
As was presented in the previous section, the coastal zone in Egypt is highly
vulnerable to the issue of the SLR in particular, given the high concentration of
the socio-economic activities as well as high population rate (Ericson, J.P 2006)
According to the OECD report (2004) all measures that outlined for the coastal
protection in Egypt are considered as a response for the current development
pathways along the coast and synergistic to the SLR. Nevertheless, it is not
covering all vulnerable areas of the coastal region. All the measures used are
restricted towards “hard measures”. These measures for coastal protection that
have been implemented to improve the stabilization of the coast for example:
extension of break waters in Alexandria (World Bank 2010) beach
nourishments projects, reinforcement of the Abou Qir sea wall –that was
constructed 1780- (OECD 2004).
The figure 16, shows areas of hard measure protection, natural protection and
unprotected areas, along with the most sensitive areas along the region.
44
Figure 16: Current protection Status of the Coastal Region
4.2 Sea Level Rise Design Responses
IPCC Response Strategies Working Group (1990) identified three main
adaptations strategies to cope with SLR which are as following:
Retreat: "Retreat involves no effort to protect the land from the sea.
The coastal zone is abandoned and ecosystem shifts landward this
choice can be motivated by excessive economic or environmental
45
impact of protection. In the extreme case, an entire area may be
abandoned."
Accommodation: "Implies that people continue to use the land at
risk but do not attempt to prevent the land from being flooded. This
option include erecting emergency flood shelters, elevating buildings
on piles, converting agriculture to fish farming, or forming flood –or-
salt- tolerance crops.
Shoreline protection:"involves hard structures such as sea walls
and dikes, as well as soft solutions such as dunes and vegetation, to
protect the land from the sea so that existing land uses can continue. (p.
135,136) see figure 16.
46
Figure 17: Adaptation Strategies Response
According to the IPCC fourth assessment report (2007), coastal regions will
eventually confront an increase in the sea level that might have irreversible
impacts. Thus, there is an urge to provide measures to prevent and enhance the
coastal regions. Conventional planning paradigm according to Godschalk, D.
(2003) considers hazard mitigation:
47
Towards protecting the people, assets and environment form the
potential hazard or threat.
Directing new development projects away from the vulnerable areas and
relocating the existing land use towards new safer areas and limiting
development in flood prone areas
Seeking hard and structural measures in confronting the threat such as
flood control work, shore hardening as an attempt to reduce the impact
associated with the hazard
According to Watson, D. and Adams, M. (2011) there are two types of measures
for shore protection which is known by:
Hard, structural and Engineered and;
Soft, non structural or Natural
4.3 Resistance: Hard Engineering Approaches
The resistance approach tends to prevent water intrusion into the system and
allowing robustness on flexibility. Hard structural/engineering measures are all
implemented by artificially constructed structures on the beach or offshore. Its
robust nature allows no flexibility and it builds up a boundary between the
natural and human environment and prevents the continuation 0f natural flow.
These are resisting measures to any integration between the shore and the
adjacent community, its main function being to block the sea water intrusion
into the land. It is constructed to halt the coastal processes and disruption so as
to reduce their implication of the adjacent community (Braatz, S., et al, 2007).
Hard measures include dikes, levees, seawalls, revetments, bulkheads, groins,
detached breakwaters, floodgates, and saltwater intrusion barriers. These are all
constructed for flood prevention (IPCC 1990).
48
4.3.1 Groin
Groin is constructed perpendicular to the coastline, to prevent sediment
transport and control the shore erosion (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. 2002;
Braatz, S., et al, 2007). The main design aim is towards maintain a minimum
width of the beach and to control the sand movement along the shore.
Braatz, S., et al, (2007) elaborated that a variety of materials could be involved
in the construction of the groins which involve rocks, woods etc.
Disadvantages:
Require continuous maintenance
Require more than one structure to function
Figure 18: Groin Design
4.3.2 Seawall and dikes
The primary purpose of seawalls and dikes is to prevent flooding into the
adjacent land from extreme wave conditions due to tidal fluctuation. The main
functional design is to increase the elevation of the structure to prevent the
overflow of water into the land.
A seawall is built from a concrete structure parallel to the coast line and dikes
are built from earth structures that keep elevated water from flooding. (U.S.
Army Corps of Engineers. 2002; Braatz, S., et al, 2007).
49
The disadvantages of a seawall:
It generates wave reflections and support sediment transport offshore.
It does not sustain beach steadiness.
High possibility of erosion occurrence on the shoreline if not
constructed along the whole coast line (Braatz, S., et al, 2007)
50
Figure 19: Undermining of a seawall built on a high energy coastline (source: CCD 1997 cited by
Huettche, C.M., et al. 2002)
4.3.3 Offshore breakwater
Breakwaters are constructed parallel to the coastal shoreline. Its main function
is to absorb the wave energy. There are types that are submerged underwater,
51
which might become multi-functional artificial reefs where aquatic habitat can
develop, and thus enhance their existence. They are huge structures and
relatively difficult to build. (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. 2002; Braatz, S., et
al, 2007).
Disadvantage:
It requires special design
The structure is exposed to Extreme wave action. (Braatz, S., et al, 2007)
4.3.4 Artificial Headland
Artificial headland is used to create a steady beach behind it (Braatz, S., et al,
2007). It is constructed from a rock structure similar to other combined
measures directed to promoting natural beaches through providing sufficient
sand for a stable beach profile and restoration of eroded beach.
The disadvantages are:
It is a relatively huge structure.
It reflects waves and cause downdrift of the protected coastline.
Week stability confronting large waves.
4.3.5 Examples of New technologies
There are new combined technologies which were developed and constructed to
protect the coastal communities from flooding. The following are two major
examples that were established in the recent years.
4.3.6 Maeslant Barrier Rotterdam
The Maeslant Barrier is a high-tech modern barrier. It is an example of
the Dutch civil engineering practices. It is built to protect Rotterdam
and its surroundings from flooding events. Maeslant Storm Barrier is
52
designed having two huge movable arms. It closes the waterway in an
automatic manner whenever storm occurs. Closing the barrier is done
fully automatically, even the notification of the ships, eight hours before
closure, is done without any human intervention. (Rotterdam city guide
n.d.)
Figure 20: Maeslant Barrier
4.3.6.1 The Dutch Oosterschelde Storm Surge
Barrier
One of the biggest construction works for protection in the Netherland from
against frequent flooding from the North Sea developed after a devastating
storm surge in (1953). It is one of the largest coastal engineering work to
combat the extreme storm surge and protect the lands from flooding. It was
constructed between Schouwen-Duiveland and Noord-Beveland islands.
53
Constructed from series of dams and storm surge barriers. Doors are normally
open, but close under extreme weather conditions. (The Official Cite of Holland
n.d.)
Figure 21: The Dutch Oosterschelde Storm Surge Barrier
4.4 Implication of Hard Engineering:
There are many examples around the world where mankind is attempting to
control his environment. The implementation of hard engineering measures
into coastal communities contributes highly to natural and ecological damage
(Grannis, J. 2011). Hard engineering does not solve the coastal problems, but
often causes problems elsewhere, providing only a temporary fix. The following
are the main disadvantages of implementing the hard measures. It acquires
environmental, economic and social dimensions:
Table 7: Disadvantages of Hard Measures
Sector
Disadvantages
54
Economic
Hard engineering defense can be more costly
It provides only a temporary solution and requires
regular maintenance and replacement
If the measure is breached, the water is trapped
and it is difficult to drain it back to the sea
Environmental
Hard engineering creates many environmental
impacts. It disturbs the sediment movement.
It redirects the wave energy increasing the erosion
on neighboring land and increases soil-salination
on the land.
It prevents upland migration of wetlands and
contributes to the erosion of beaches.
Social Protects the land only to a certain limit.
It is not aesthetically satisfying
It has a high tendency to increase urbanization
adjacent to the hard structure, therefore increases
the vulnerable population in the flooding events.
It constitutes a hard armoring obstacle access to
the coast and prevents the public using its
recreational value.
4.5 Alexandria: Case Study for Resistant Paradigm:
Alexandria is can be considered the biggest example in Egypt biggest example in
Egypt in Dealing with coastal hazards. It is presented as an example that follows
the follow Resistant paradigm in dealing with coastal hazards.
Alexandria is the most important city along the coastal region and considered
the biggest example in Egypt for urban communities dealing with coastal
55
planning. The city is stretches about 60 km along the coast, from Abu Qir in the west
till Sidi Kirir in the west. It has population of about 4.5 million (CAPMAS) inhabitants
with one million increases in summer which makes it one of the main destinations
for all Egyptians. The city hosts 40% of about the total Egyptian industries as
well as the largest harbor in the country. (El Raey et al 1999).
It has founded historical, economical and social foundation from the former
centuries. Alexandria’s harbor is the main harbor in Egypt. It is the center of
high trade and marine commerce.
4.5.1 Historical Evolution and Present Circumstances:
The city was originally established with the vision of linking Alexandria
with "Pharos" island. By wharf from rocks was established connecting the
city with the island and this was considered to be the backbone of the
later development and to the moment is considered the core urban
structure in the city. It created a natural division of the port into the
Eastern and Western ports. The area is currently known as "El Mansheya
and El Gomrok". (Alex. Governorate (1984),) the city has passed through
several historical eras, Romans and poltamic, Christianity, French
colonial.
The modern Alexandria is a foundation to the infrastructure and
planning of Mohamed Ali. The importance of the economic and
military value of Alexandria was significant until it became the second
capital of Egypt (Alex. Governorate 1984). The infrastructure that was
set in the Mohamed Ali era is considered the foundation of the further
development that followed till the recent years. There were different
factors affected this:
56
1. The digging of El Mahmoudeya Canal in year 1819 leading to
reclamation of lands along with the recovery of the activities in the
port.
2. Introduction of cotton cultivation in Egypt and using
Mahmoudeya Canal to transport it to Alexandria and then export
it.
3. Increase the depth of the port and creation of new platform which
had the biggest impact in the return of Alexandria to its old glory
times
4. Construction of new railway "Cairo-Alexandria" by year 1854
made Alexandria directly connected to Suez and increased the
transit commerce in Alexandria
5. Providing the city with public services which increased the
immigration towards it
6. Establishment of passengers railway by year 1876 that affected the
urbanization, building, storages and companies
(Alex. Governorate (1984)
57
Figure 22: Alexandria Historical Evolution (source: Alex. Governorate, 1984)
4.5.2 Alexandria Development Pathways
Alexandria’s development pathways in the recent years have increased even
with the city’s high exposure to the impacts of climate change, erosion, flood
inundation and storm surges and not to withstand the over-capacity of the
existing infra-structure. Field surveying and development indicators show
that the city is currently expanding into low elevated (lying) rural hinterland
near Lake Maryout and Abou Qir depression and experiencing rapid
population and economic development (Personal communication with
Essam Fouad, 2013). Alexandria’s coast line and hinterland are highly
vulnerable to inundation and submersion as a consequence of sea level rise
and coastal erosion and considered according to Nicholls, R. J. et al. (2008)
on the top the top-ten cities in terms of exposed population and around 30
58
US$ bil exposed assets. A detailed study was done by El Raey (1997) which
showed that Alexandria’s almost 1.5 million inhabitant are vulnerable to the
threat of SLR, if no action is taken, with 195 443 risking total loss of
employment Evidence of extreme whether condition occurring in Alexandria in
the past few years was recorded. See Table8
World Bank Report ES1 presented that the most challenging aspects in the
present and future development:
1. One third of the city are informal areas
2. Low elevated areas
3. Ill maintained infrastructure will be a huge challenge in the future to
cope with the change
4. Areas confronting the Coastline with high proximity to the sea
4.5.3 Shore line Analysis: Measures for Coastal Protection
for Alexandria
Higher authorities of the city pay out US$300 million for coastal protection
measures for the shore line protection (Batisha A. F. 2012). However, according
to El-Sharnouby, B. and Soliman, A. (2010) there is neither integrated
coastal management nor a strategic plan developed for the shoreline
protection. Each zone has been protected in a different measure and with a
different type of structure. Groins, revetment concrete blocks, sea walls, are
all considered to be hard methods of confronting the coastal dynamics.
These protection measures have been implemented along the beaches of
Alexandria in order to overcome the erosion and to prevent the waves’
energy from attacking the shore. The evolution of the shore line presented in
figure (23 and 24) clearly describe the transformation process on the shore
line during the area of 1950 to 2010 with the addition of lagoon harbor
jetties groins as well. The following section will elaborate the coastal protection
measure that is being used by the city.
59
60
Figure 23: Alexandria shoreline
61
Figure 24: Alexandria Shoreline cont.
62
Figure 25: shore line evolution from 1950-2010
63
4.5.3.1 Groins and Beach nourishment:
Depositing sand in the eroded beaches (El Raey, M. 1999) by sand transferred
from the western desert (Personal communication with Karim Rakha, 2013)),
which acts as a buffer area between shoreline and urban agglomeration also it
acts as a touristic sand beach (EL Raey 1999). Groins, as well are constructed
perpendicular to the shore in order to use them with nourishment groins, as it
provides a space for recreational beaches. According to El Raey, M. (1999) and
field survey presented that usage of groins has a high public acceptance and
very fair environmental performance in comparison to other measures.
4.5.3.2 Breakwaters:
Breakwaters are constructed along the shoreline from natural stones and
rubbles to decrease the storm impact. Recent work has been done from Miami
Beach to Montaza. It consists of rubble, sand stones, or concrete blocks. It
includes elevated and submerged parts. There are off-shore submerged
breakwaters which act as a breaker of the wave/storm energy. (World Bank
Report)
4.5.3.3 Sea Walls and revetment blocks:
The revetment concrete block is the most dominant shore protection measure
along the coast. Storm surges are the most dangerous meteorological
phenomena along the coast and have a strong impact on it.
Dekhiela and Mohamed Ali wall are two main sea walls that have been formerly
constructed. Mohamed Ali Sea wall was constructed in the 1780 to prevent the
penetration of water into the low elevated areas located behind it (1.5-2.5meter
below sea level rise). For that matter, it is considered to be one of the main
sensitive structures along the coast responsible for the protection of agricultural
lands and hinterland. It was recently maintained (1989) by addition of
additional concrete blocks and a sloping face. However, there is sub-surface
leakage area (F. Essam 2013)
64
4.6 Implication of flooding event on the Coastal Area
of Alexandria
Different aspects are included in the vulnerability of the exposed group of the
coastal community in Alexandria. Whether geographic distribution (low
elevated areas, hinterland, rural, urban, etc) or income generating socio
economical related characteristics (wealth, income, sector, etc) protected or
unprotected districts. The following will focus on the implicated of storm events
on the coastal environment of Alexandria
4.6.1 Protected Areas:
Evidence of extreme weather conditions occurring in Alexandria in the past few
years was recorded. According to B. El-Sharnouby and A. Soliman (2011);
Alexandria witnessed extreme weather the city was confronted for two days
with a wind blow of 65 kilometer per hour that created a wave with a height of
7.5 meter. This has resulted in severe damages along the shore line. This had a
negative impact on the shore protection structures and created a severe damage
to the coast (see fig 26).
65
Figure 26: Effects of 2010 storm wave on coast (Source: El-Sharnouby B. and Soliman A., 2010)
4.6.2 Unprotected areas:
In terms of social equity and contribution to the shares of shore protection
measures along the coast, direct informal areas are evident along the coast
(Author Field Survey).
The community act as the first defense line with no measures of protection
towards coastal hazard, Abou Qir district make a good example of low income
social development and extension along the Alexandrian coast. Abou Qir
located South El-Montazah, El-Raml, Moharam-Bey and El-Amriya districts are
a community in Montazah District, with population of 200,000 inhabitants
(CAPMAS 2006). It represents one of the most important historical places in
Alexandria, with ongoing underwater excavation for lost monuments. It’s
considered as an eastern gate to Alexandria.
The highly exposed groups coastal (urban) poor that are located in the northern
eastern of the city, living directly along the sea with no protection measures.
Highly endangered as they are closely to the main sea wall of Abou Qir, which is
66
considered the weakest point preventing water intrusion in to the adjacent low
land.
The main characteristics of this community are:
1. Illegal high buildings on the waterfront of Abu Qir (Alexandria
governorate, 1997)
2. Presence of slums in scattered areas, deteriorated buildings with
bad conditions and very narrow streets which cannot supply
many areas with efficient infrastructure (waste, water supply,
electricity) which lead to many environmental problems.
3. Post revolution Illegal construction in many areas including the
sea shore leading to the presence of unplanned streets and
narrow corridors
4. Waste water problems resulted from lack of drainage pipe supply
leading to draining into wells or directly into the sea.
5. Clear degradation in the aquatic environment and water
pollution which is no obstacle for the community to use sea
features.
6. Transportation problem is one of the major issues accessibility is
through one main road and main train line connecting it with
Alexandria main station.
The community in cases of any coastal hazard is the first defense line without
protection measures. Based on field survey findings, the 2010 extreme storm
surge had reached the building's third storey causing sever damaged to the
physical built environment. On the other hand the locals are adapting the
winter climate events and the damages cost with no willingness to resettle.
Figure 23 show the direct exposure of Abu Qir District to the sea and present
the environmental degradation situation. (See figure 27)
67
Figure 27: Unprotected community of Abu Qir (Urban Poor)
68
4.6.3 Assessment of the adaptation measure implemented
in the city of Alexandria
El Raey (1999) in his study assessed several adaptation measures, which include
beach nourishment, groins, legal development regulation, ICZM, and land use
change. The results showed that the best adaptation options in terms of cost
effectiveness is towards beach nourishment and breakwater in terms of net
benefit, environmental impact, robustness/flexibility, chances of success,
feasibility and fairness. However, it will be very difficult to implement a land
use change strategy or legal development regulation. The former is a result of a
high level of complexity that it will require for implementation, whereas the
latter will face the difficulty to enforce regularization putting into consideration
the local socioeconomic behavior.
4.7 Implementation of Hard Measures:
According to Watson, D. and Adams, M. (2011) and Pope (1994) mentioned that
hard measures only give a false sense of security as there might be a storm that
overcomes the structure and breach into the community. However, there are
some circumstances and situations where hard engineering measures can be
considered the only appropriate solution despite its various implications:
Highly dense urban environment
Places with critical infrastructure and architecture or intensely
urbanized areas which are at high risk
Large cities might find it quite challenging to accommodate spaces for soft
measures and hence, directed to more long term hard measures and strategic
approach to ensure its protection. (Grannis J. 2011). However, their impact on
natural environment cannot be avoided. However there are measures can be
taken to reduce the impact and harshness of the hard measures.
69
Different measures can be added to mitigate the harshness and robustness of
hard coastal protection; yet their effect on the natural environment is
inevitable.
4.7.1 Softening the Shoreline
There is a necessity to achieve a balanced relation between the protection of the
community-with its economic and social aspects- and the degradation of the
natural environment of the coast.
The following will present some visionary projects that aim to soften the hard
measures implemented in the coastal region and increase the ecological
dimension along with the protection measures.
4.7.1.1 New York City Proposal:
The project “On the Water” offer proposals for the waterfront development of
the city of New York/New Jersey with adaptation dimension to confront the
threat of CC and associated impact of SLR, flooding and storm surges.
The plans focus on the revitalization and increase of the ecological responses to
restore the waterfront of the city. The proposed adaptive measures are flexible,
aiming to replace the current hard measures applied, and to reduce and to
mitigate the impact. Measures like wetlands, piers, park, oyster beds and
artificial islands are all newly proposed measures for the waterfront.
(Nordenson G., et al., 2009)
ELEVATED HIGHWAY WITH NEW LANDSCAPE
70
WIDE LANDSCAPE
71
BREAK WATER TOWER:
1. Floating boardwalk for recreational
access
2. Suspended vegetation provides shelter
for birds
3. Inorganic material absorb water as
tide barriers
4. Mussel farms
5. Cold water kelp forest provides shelter
for fish
6. Oyster beds
Nordenson G., et al., 2009 [p. 198]
Figure 28: Break Water Tower
4.7.1.2 Environmental Friendly Sea Walls:
Sydney Metropolitan Catchment Management Authority and Department of
Environment and Climate Change NSW (2009) presented proposals for
softening sea walls which include providing artificial reef habitat immediately
in front of seawalls, providing variation of texture and form on the seawall
surface, Maximizing habitat diversity and complexity, Maximizing the use of
72
native riparian and estuarine vegetation, the increasing the artificial reefs by
introducing Reef Balls to increase habitat.
Figure 92 : A step-type seawall incorporating a bench of both mangroves and saltmarsh.
Figure 30: Shot of the seawall at KogarahBay, Georges River, showing a step-type seawall with a bench of salt marsh vegetation.
73
74
Chapter 5
5 PARADIGM SHIFT
5.1 Introduction to paradigm shift
Climate change should not be perceived as a threat for coastal development, but
rather an opportunity to provoke new ways of for planning cities. The effects of
SLR are not just limited to the coast. The protection measures mentioned before
help cities to prevent the damages or reduce the impact on the build
environment. It gives false sense of security as there is always a chance of a
storm surge that is above the protection level of the engineered structure
(Watoson D. and Adams M. 2011).
This implies an understanding that natural environment and shift from the
conventional paradigm, from controlling the natural environment thinking, to
be directed to learn from nature dynamics and learn to live with change. Table 9
present Lessons of nature applicable to Design and Construction adapted from
Watoson D. and Adams M. (2011). Design for resilience is a prominent
paradigm in dealing with planning and designing new cities to confront the
threat of SLR (Watoson D. and Adams M. 2011; Gunderson D. 2003). The need
to create a shift from resistant- top down-hard – conventional planning
paradigm to creating environmental friendly, thriving, amphibious, flexible and
resilient cities. This will require integrating the climate change in the initial
planning process and develop more a holistic, integrated approach that
understands and integrates the dynamics of nature with the surrounding
communities and avoid a robust community and to be directed towards more
flexible and adaptive responses that are adjusted to the changing conditions.
75
Resilient communities are considered an antidote to reduce or eliminate coastal
vulnerability (Bently, T 2009). Resilient cities are constructed to be strong and
flexible, rather than brittle and fragile (Gunderson D. 2003). Their physical,
build systems of infrastructure, utilities, and other facilities are planned
to meet code standards based on hazard mitigation in order to still
function in the face of climate fluctuation. (NOAA 2009).
Resilience aims to design new cities strong and adaptable rather than fragile
and weak and to continue functioning in front of the climatic events, rather
than break and collapse. Also make best use of nature rather than relocation
into safer areas (Gunderson D. 2003).
The lifeline build up systems of buildings, infrastructure, roads and utilities are
constructed to meet the certain criteria according to the hazard threat. Elevated
buildings, planning with consideration of erosion and inundation, setting up
zoning, setbacks, and infrastructure are all measures that contribute to
adaptable community to SLR (Gunderson D. 2011;NOAA 2009).
Table 8: Lessons of nature applicable to Design and Construction (Source: Watoson D. and
Adams M. 2011)
Lessons of nature applicable to Design and
Construction
Absorption: Watershed planning
and design (reservoirs, retention
ponds, green roofs)
Buffering: Break, riparian
buffer, rain garden, shuttering.
Core Protection: Zoning,
Decentralization, self –reliant
subsystems.
Diffusion: Meanders, wetland
Rapid responses: Smart grid, early
warning, emergency responsive
systems.
Redundant circuits: Green
Infrastructure, wildlife corridors, and
multiple service routes.
Storage Capacity: aquifers,
wetlands, reservoirs, cisterns.
Waste/ Nutrient recovery:
76
and coastal zone landscape, often
foundation.
sustainable storm water design and
waste systems.
5.2 Models for National and International Action
The Federal Emergency Management and Assistance (FEMA) Flood Plain
Management Strategies (2009) compiled different lessons to mitigate the
impact of flooding on coastal communities. It defined four main strategies for
flood mitigation measures and which are: quoting:
Table 9: FEMA Federal Emergency Management and Assistance (FEMA) Flood Plain
Management Strategies
Strategy Tool
“Strategy 1:
Modify human
susceptibility to
flood damage”
Reduce
disruption by
avoiding
hazardous,
uneconomic or
unwise use of
floodplains. [p.I-
30]
It emphasize on using regulation of the land use
for flood plains and the usage of zoning tool to
draw development far from prone areas or
preserving natural areas, introducing codes for
developing subdivision, building and health and
sanitary codes.
Allocate land in the floodplain that work to
safeguard open spaces and permanently
relocate buildings.
Elevated or flood proof buildings and adjust the
present ones.
Increase community awareness of the hazard
occurrence through forecasting of the climatic
condition and flooding. Also provide early
warning and emergency plans.
Re-vitalization and protection of the natural
resources and maintain purposes of floodplains.
77
Strategy 2:
Modify the
impact of
flooding
Assist
individuals and
communities to
prepare for,
respond to and
recover from a
flood. p.I-31]
Providing knowledge to increase the capacity to
of community to self-reliant in terms of
protection against flooding.
Adding emergency response throughout the
flooding event to protect the citizens and assets.
Minimizing the impact of flooding on the
financial sector by flood insurance and tax
regulation.
Arrange and propose post-flood plans and
programs to aid citizens to re-establish and
execute recovery procedures to protect from
further future events.
Strategy 3:
Modify flooding
itself
Develop projects
that control
floodwater p.I-
31]
Constructing dams and reservoirs to store
surplus water from urbanized areas.
Constructing dikes, levees and floodwalls to
prevent water from intruding into urbanized
zones.
Altering waterway canals to increase their
efficiency, so that over flow flooding will be less
frequent.
Redirect flows round urbanized zones.
Decrease the sealed surfaces and decrease the
run offs by increasing land permeability to
catch rain water to infiltrate the soil.
Gather excess runoffs and store them by on-site
detention measures.
Prevent the inundation on urbanized area by
using shoreline protection measures that
comply with the natural dynamic of the
shoreline.
78
Strategy 4:
Preserve and
restore natural
resources
Renew the
vitality and
purpose of
floodplains by
reestablishing
and maintaining
floodplain
environments in
their natural
state
[p.I-32]
Regulating land use and direct urbanization
away from highly exposed or natural
environment. Might be a possible measure such
as floodplain, wetlands and coastal barriers.
Preserving the natural environment and ecology
through increasing open space, control land
acquisition, revival of natural habitat.
Include the community in the process of
preserving the natural environment by
increasing awareness toward the floodplains
and natural features.
Introduction of Taxes and flood insurance to
create initiatives for preserving and protecting
the natural environment.
Increase of soft measures in the protection of
the built environment.
5.3 Flood Design Practices
The following part will present models of cities that are seeking to achieve a
balanced relation between flooding events and built environment.
5.3.1 Hafen city-Hamburg:
Hamburg, Germany is currently developing the Hafen City to expand the city
center and creates a hub for trade and commerce. Hafen City is considered one
of the biggest examples of recent urban transformation for developing a city on
a contaminated site and tackling future-adaptive urban development. It is
located in a very attractive water front in Hamburg. (Neuauflage 2006)
79
The city is located outside the main dyke system of Hamburg City in a very high
tidal area. The city is planned to cope with the natural tidal fluctuation and
flooding events.
Figure 31: Hafen City Master Plan
Buildings:
The buildings are all designed
elevated by 7.5 meter above sea
level to comply with the
regulation of the flood protection
system.
In addition, the basement is
designed to be sealed during the
flooding events.
Figure 32: Residential units overhanging a waterfront
80
Roads:
Road system is designed away
from the water side so as not to
be affected by the flooding events
and with no access to the
buildings.
In addition, elevated routes are
designed to serve self refuge in
case of extreme flooding
condition. These are designed as
bridges and alike structures.
Open spaces:
The open spaces are designed to
cope with three levels of the tidal
dynamics. The spaces are used to
establish floating platforms
adapting to the tidal fluctuation.
(Prominski, M et al, 2012)
Figure 33 : Elevated Roads in Hafen City
Figure 34: Open Spaces in Hafen City
81
82
Chapter 6
6 CASE STUDY 2: NEW MOTOBUS
6.1 Development pathways along the Nile delta:
Based on the study Presented by General Organization for Physical Planning for
Nile Delta Coastal Development (2010), Ministry of Housing and GOPP are
planning for new coastal development along the North Coast of the Delta.
Dividing the Nile delta into five main development sectors, for each sector there
are proposal for a new coastal communities and industries. The government
current approach is to direct the development of the coastal region toward the
urban expansion of the delta city toward the delta coast. New cities are being
proposed in the vulnerable areas of the coastal zone as an urban and economic
expansion of the existing cities. Cities like, West Gamasa, New Mansoura (9400
feddan)2, New Motobus (500 feddans),New Damietta (New Urban
Communities Authorities) (See figure32), and many other coastal cities. Huge
investment are being proposed to offer around 215 thousand new employment
opportunities in various fields for the main five development sectors, 175
thousand opportunities for industrial, touristic and services sectors, 40
thousand direct employment for agricultural land reclamation agriculture, With
total investment coast 4.3 bil EGP on total land 28368 Feddan.
2 Feddan is a measurement unit used in Egypt , which is equivalent to 2400 square meters,
83
Figure 35: Proposed Strategic Land use Plan for the Nile Delta
Black color Represent new proposed urban communities
6.2 Coastal Planning laws:
No clear regulation for the coastal planning and development considering
impact associated with the climate changes and SLR in specific. Except for the
200 meter the beach premise zone, heavy construction is prohibited. The
environment law 4 issued 1994 is legal regulation that requires Environmental
Impact Assessment (EIA) prior to the implementation of any coastal project to
identify the impact on the coastal ecosystem (EEAA). However, there is no
proper enforcement of the law, there are projects have been encouraged to do
the assessment, however many others did not conduct the assessment (OECD
2004)
El Raey, M. (1999) and Hassan, M., et al (2010) and presented that in order to
reduce the economic losses due to inundation, future development must take
into account the potential threat of the inundation and SLR into account in the
initial planning process.
84
6.3 Case Study 2: New Motobus
New Motobus is a new proposed city in Motobus district-Kafr El Shiekh
Governorate. The region has been long famous with its biological diversity,
remarkable landscape. The Governorate is planning for expansion and regional
growth. The vulnerability assessment that was conducted earlier, showed that
the selected region is located in very prone area along the coastal region and
highly exposed to the impact climate change and SLR.
The new proposed city is not yet established; however there is a preliminary
design proposal for the coastal community developed by (IDG. 2010). The main
aim of this section is to set the guideline principles for planning a resilient
coastal community.
6.3.1 Location and site analysis:
Motobus is located in Karf El Shiekh Governorate with the northern side is the
Mediterranean Sea, The southern border Fuh district, The western side is the
Nile River Rosetta branch and is considered the natural boundary between Kafr
El Sheikh governorate and El Beheira Governorate. On the eastern side borders
Sidi Salem Centre and Lake Burullus. It is highly connected to the regional
sphere as it is located directly on the International Road crossing the Egyptian
Coast to connect the North Arab Countries together.
Hassaan, M. A. and Abdrabo, M. A. (2013) pointed to the fact that natural and
manmade structure provide some protection to some areas. Such as the
international Coastal Highway which was constructed above sea level by 2
meters.
85
Figure 36: Regional Analysis of New Motobus
Environmental threats confronting New Motobus:
The area is located in one of the most vulnerable and sensitive areas in the delta
coast. Along with other environmental problems the area is confronting which
are as following:
The potential sea water intrusion on the long term development.
Increase in storm surges
High erosion rate
86
Frihy. O, Khafay (1991) monitored the evolution of the Rosetta Shoreline during
the past two centuries (between 1900 –1988) by positioning different historical
shorelines. The study showed shoreline retreat estimated by 53-58 (m yr-1t)
which is as a result of sediment inefficiency presenting high rate of erosion
along the Rosetta branch. Recent protection measures were added (groins) in
order to protect the shore line from further erosion.
Spatial data maps and measurement
of low elevated areas adopted from
GOPP GIS data base was used to the
proposed coastal zone change
projections for a proposed coastal
area. The Topography of the site it is
located in a low elevated coastal area;
with elevation between 0-1 meters
above sea level. (GOPP Digital
Elevation Model)
6.4 Current Proposed Master Plan:
The current proposed development master plan for the community in New
Motobus is proposed by IDG. (2010). Design planning measure where no clear
environmental studies are developed to cope with climate change. The coastal
building and planning measure for any coastal development is just to avoid
building heavy structures in the 200 meter the beach premise.
Figure 37: The evolution of the Rosetta Shoreline during the past two centuries
87
The main aim to the proposed urban composition is focusing on the functions
and their relation towards each other and towards the coast.
Urban composition of the city:
- The simplicity and strong composition of the overall community
- The small outer perimeter of the city
- Forming open towards the Mediterranean coast
- Urban appropriate modulation of natural determinants
- The division of the city to functional areas
Land Use:
- The functional relationship between uses
- Balanced distribution of uses (residential and service sectors and
tourism)
- Linking domestic uses of Urban Mass With external uses.
- Clarity and ease of distribution uses
88
Figure 38: Current proposal for Motobus
6.5 Methodology:
The design for New Motobus aims to introducing phase plans to cope with the
scenarios of SLR and tidal fluctuation in summer and winter. The main aim of
this section is to provide alternatives to mitigate and transform the convent
89
communities Economic, aesthetic, diversity and political dimension are all
responsible factors for the growth development of coastal regions. The losses
accompanying coastal hazard events of ecological, socio-political, increases as
the development increases with increasing needs to replace local inhabitants
and compromise the natural ecosystem with population and development.
6.6 Setting the Goals
The area is highly vulnerable to flooding because of location in flood-prone
shoreline areas; aim to increase the adaptive capacity to cope with SLR. Any
adaptation strategies require formulation of set of goals in which are aimed to
achieve in order to increase the capacity of community to cope with uncertainty
and change NOAA (2010).
Reduce the vulnerability of the built environment to sea level rise
Maintain functioning and healthy coastal ecosystems
Introduce infrastructure capable to embrace the climate change impact
Minimize physical and economical losses associated with the impacts of
climate change
Protection of natural resources and capital
Increase awareness of community to flooding events and change
Improve the coordination between related institutions and
organizations
6.7 Defining the Strategies:
Strategy 1:
Stabilization of the shoreline to confront the SLR and coastal
erosion
Strategy 2:
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Setting sufficient buffer zone along the coast that is capable to
confront any external influences and considering the erosion factor
and allocate areas that absorb and diffuse storms and inundations
Strategy 3:
Increase the capacity of the floodplain landscape infrastructure to
absorb the flooding.
Strategy 4:
Enhance the ecological function, services and productivity
Strategy 5:
Create an environment that allow the community to interact with
nature and to be receiving and reacting to any external event
(flooding)
Strategy 5:
Create an environment that allow the community to interact with
nature and to be receiving and reacting to any external event
(flooding)
Strategy 6:
Protect the natural resources and capital by proper growth
management and development. Improve resilience of the
communities to climate change and variability through developing
legal regulation for zones and building and reduce the impact of
construction and develop construction codes to all systems of
buildings, infrastructure roads, utilities, and all measure that
contribute to adaptable community to SLR
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Strategy 7:
Increase adaptive capacity to manage climate change related risks to
fresh water availability by appropriate wastewater treatment
technologies and decrease use of potable water.
Strategy 8:
Improved public health, safety and social well being through
providing updated information about the threat and also provide
early warning to increase the awareness.
6.8 Measures for increase community resilience
The following climate change adaptation measures table is proposed for New
Motobus and could be highly applicable to new coastal communities. These
measures that are proposed to reduce the impact of the CC on the coastal
community. It is limited to measures that planners and architects have high
contribution and role for it. This measure might have multiple benefits and fit
into different categories. However they are categorized into their main function
and purpose according to the three main coastal zones:
1. Off shore: Water barrier
2. Buffer zone
3. Inland Development
It is a compilation from various sources aiming to guide growth and
development and offer measures to improve the adaptive capacity of the
communities to climate change effective planning in the initial phase reduce the
risk associated with hazard.
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Figure 39: Division of Coastal Area
6.9 Off shore Measures:
Off shore measure are mainly conducted to reduce the impact of storm surges
and inundation in to the adjacent community. The measures included mainly to
act as water barrier:
6.9.1 Artificial reefs:
Artificial reefs are constructed off shore, by placing man made material
underwater to revitalize or create and enhance an ecosystem especially to fish
habitat. It benefits the fisheries management, fishermen and increase economy.
It also functions as break water that diffuses wave energy and protects the
shoreline from erosion.(NOAA 2010)
6.10 Ecological Buffer Zone:
This is considered the main buffer area that acts as an intermediate zone
between the inland development/community and sea water. They are designed
to protect mainly the natural environment and ecosystem. They also have other
benefits and functions and could be a resource provider. They can provide
habitat, Catch flood water, diffuse its impact and decrease the intensity of water
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intrusion into the adjacent inland development, stabilization of the shore and
minimize the erosion rate.
It is design to protect the natural and built environment. It can provide
protective services and ecological dimension, providing habitat and natural
protection from erosion and flooding by stabilizing the soil, reducing the
inundation velocity and filtration of sediments (NOAA 2009). This can include
measures like:
6.10.1 Wetlands
Wetlands are one of the most productive ecosystems. It is a complex biological
system that an area of land that is partially, seasonally or permanently
inundated by water. It can be salt water or fresh water. NOAA Habitat
Conservation (no date) It combines several benefits:
- It creates a habitat for flora and fauna
- It act as natural bio-filter to remove the sediments and pollutants
- Act as an open space and acquire aesthetical benefits
It also has other benefits to flooding events:
- Control water inundation by regulating natural water flow and
accumulate water
However, constructed wetland can create a challenge in introducing it in the
coastal region as it require several research for its feasibility including the
nature of soil, topography, type of habitat etc. and high consultation to expertise
as it is highly engineered.
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6.10.2 Shore Stabilization structures
Stabilization of the shoreline to confront the SLR and coastal erosion, Setting
sufficient buffer zone along the coast that is capable to confront any external
influences and considering the erosion factor.
6.10.2.1 Beach nourishment:
Beach nourishment is used to increase the beach premise affected by sediment
loss or coastal erosion, by artificially increasing the amount of sand. This is to
maintain recreational value of the coast and replicate the mode the natural
beaches disperse wave energy. (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. 2002;
Braatz, S., et al, 2007) This method requires continuous repairs and refilling
from the sediment source. It is used sometime to increase the efficiency of
some hard structure such as headland, groins and breakwaters. (U.S. Army
Corps of Engineers. 2002; Braatz, S., et al, 2007)
6.10.2.2 Dune enhancement/building:
Sand dunes are naturally formed along the coast, as they are development from
wind movement. An amount of sand gathered located within the landward
limits of tidal fluctuation. It offer ideal defense system as the coastal vegetation
is essential for the continued existence of dunes as the roots attach sediments
together and act as catchment and build up of sediment through the
windblown. The storm might affect the dune and grab the sand towards the sea.
However, in normal condition the wind blow back the sand to the dunes. (U.S.
Army Corps of Engineers. 2002; Braatz, S., et al, 2007)
6.10.2.3 Coastal Re-vegetation
The existence of vegetation in the coast increases the shore stability, strengthen
the sediment and decrease wave energy. It also protects the shoreline from
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erosion. However, some time it might be successful and others might not be
successful. Low energy environment have higher tendency to be successful than
in high energy environment. Failure may be due to:
The growth of some spices might not be adequate to site specification
and require certain environmental condition that might lead to failure
of the growth.
It is probable that human influences change the natural processes in the
area.
Clear indicator towards the suitability of introducing vegetation is the
already occurrence of vegetation already growing.
Other factors for example: slope, elevation, tidal range, salinity,
substrate and hydrology
(U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. 2002; Braatz, S., et al, 2007)
6.10.3 Advantages of Soft measures:
Soft-engineering provide tools which are flexible and adaptable, not
relying only on fixed measures.
Soft solution that copes with the nature dynamics provides the chances
to increase the ecological growth and increase living habitat.
Water purified by using natural measures. (Ex. Oyster beds, wetlands
and coastal vegetation)
Planting, vegetation and many other natural measures, increase oxygen
production and decrease carbon dioxide level. This contributes as well to
mitigate urban heat island effects. Moreover, they replace impermeable
and carbon intensive materials such as concrete and asphalt.
Soft measures, has low cost, require less maintenance and increase
saving by reducing demand on expensive infrastructure.
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6.11 Inland Development
6.11.1 Zoning and setbacks
6.11.1.1 Zoning:
In Coastal design zoning can be used to allocate and regulate the land use,
functions (multi-function spaces or infra-structure) building structure, shore
protection, setbacks, foot print) (NOAA 2009).Implementation of Zoning and
Overlay Zones in a SLR Context can divide the coast into two main zone
(Grannis, J. 2011):
V-Zones: are the front flood plains that are highly subjected to storm
velocity wave action. Hence, require more strict measures than other areas.
A-Zones: are inland/ upland areas of floodplains that will be highly
impacted to the 100 years flooding, but not directly subjected to wave velocity.
There are other categories outside the 100 years flooding zone with minimum
impact from coastal hazard. Each zone will require setting different
construction, mitigation measure. Figure presents the scenarios from direct
exposure with no construction consideration.
6.11.1.2 Setbacks:
Purpose of setbacks is to develop a buffer area to keep structures away from the
direct exposure and keeping distance from first lot require to be deep to keep
sufficient distance to protect the structure (NOAA 2010). Already before
purchasing a lot, information's about possible flood risk need to be sought for
from the municipality or from the competent offices of the Hydraulic
Administration. Defined based on a fixed shore line or vegetation line or to
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consider long term changes (like shore erosion rate). (Watson D and Adams
2011)
Figure 33, present different alternative for mitigating the impact associated
with flood through better subdivision of lots and including setbacks
Figure 40: Scenarios for different lot subdivision and setbacks for mitigation and reduce impact associated with flooding (source: Watson D and Adams 2011)
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Figure 41: Scenarios for different lot subdivision and setbacks for mitigation and reduce impact associated with flooding cont.)
6.11.2 Building codes and regulations:
Flooding can lead to significant damages of buildings and mechanical
equipment. The main reasons are, on the one hand, not considering the risks of
flooding when arranging the building lots, on the other, neglecting protection
standards.
99
The level of the protection of the building depends of provision of building
codes enforced by the government or state. These codes could be applied to
address specific hazards. Sustainable building designs by developing legal
regulation for zones and building and construction codes, Building code
regulate design construction, Building code regulate design construction,
landscaping and aim to increase the capacity of the building to confront and
stand the external. (NOAA 2009)
Different building codes don't differ from different climatic zones and doesn’t
comply with the climatic situation in Egypt (Personal communication with
EEAA 2013).These codes could be applied to address specific hazards. A flood-
protected design means it provides sufficient protection of the construction
against flood to the extent that it is located below the level of the flood drain
zone. According to Petermandl, M. and Penninger, D. (2009), Austrian Building
Code From (1994) this, new buildings, annexes and renovations of buildings
within the zone of 30 and 100-year flood drain need to be designed and
constructed flood-protected.
Constructional Protection Measures
A flood-protected design means it provides sufficient protection of the
construction against flood to the extent that it is located below the level of the
flood drain zone
Raising Buildings
Within hazardous regions, raised construction type is often advisable.
For this purpose, soil can be heaped up or the building can be
constructed upon pillars. Also a slight rising of the door threshold can
avoid water penetrating during the flood.
Protecting Foundations against Erosion
Whenever a building is located within the floor area of flowing water,
there is at risk of the foundations being washed-out or even displaced. In
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order to avoid this, they should be executed deep enough, or otherwise
anchored or insured by means of an erosion protection.
Sealable basement
The sealing of the basement level is to prevent the building from being
inundated from flooding. Or basement can be sealed off with mobile
flood protection gates
Enclosure of the Lot / Outdoor Measures
Usually a building can be safeguarded by an encircling construction
protecting against high flood. For this purpose, stationary, partially
mobile flood protection walls can be used. Stationary measures are dams
or walls. Partially mobile measures are bulkhead or stop log systems in
combination with immovable fixing constructions.
Sealing Against Penetration of Water
Selecting appropriate materials is a fundamental measure for limiting
the damage is created by high flood. Water-resistant, preferably non-
porous materials should be used.
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Figure 42: Shore line transect illustrate Zones Classification of recommended Buildings
6.11.3 Compact design development
Compact design offer efficient grouping building and minimize footprint by
mixing of use and offering more open spaces that could be used as a ecological
infrastructure or wetlands migration corridors while protecting natural system.
Compact design means reduce the runoffs and reduce investment in the
infrastructure that is highly susceptible to hazard. It also increase the open
spaces which means reduce the run offs and flooding. Compact community
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design is better to be implemented with zoning and building restriction and
regulation in the development of the prone areas. (NOAA 2009; Jacob, J. and
Showalter, S. 2007)
6.12 Green Infrastructure and Roads:
Green infrastructure is a comprehensive approach that carries different
measures all together. It combine natural element of landscape into the
facilities of the community. This includes rain water management, open spaces
preservation, and tree landscaping as well sidewalk, utilities, and services
(Watson D and Adams 2011). Green Infrastructure could direct towards multi-
functionality as it related to water resource management and protection. Thus,
the usage of the soil and plants to store, divert, and treat water. (NOAA2010)
In order, for coastal communities to adapt to the inundation and the impact of
SLR. The need to increase the capacity of the drainage system, catchment
basins, flow direction and storage system through landscape infrastructure, this
includes:
6.12.1 Open spaces:
High urbanization rate increase the sealed surfaces causing in time of flooding
infrastructure might not be adequate to cope with change. replacing
impermeable surfaces by developing Multi-functional space aiming to protect
and provide habitat, mitigate the impact of flooding and runoffs, promote
ground water recharge, recreational aspect and enhance natural and cultural
resource. This has a contribution to increase and improve public space and
green areas and increase its quality, density, diversity of trees and landscaping
elements. (NOAA2010)
- Encourage ecological connectivity and habitat
- Reduce flooding and runoffs
- Promote ground water recharge
- Recreational aspect
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- Enhance natural and cultural resource
- Multi-functional space
- Create absorbent landscape, salt tolerant, adaptive vegetation to salinity
and water efficient
6.12.2 Storm water management:
The need for storm water management is to manage and contain the rain water
and generated runoffs. It can be used to reduce the risks to fresh water
availability by appropriate wastewater treatment technologies and Increase
capacity of storm water management systems to accommodate increased flood
waters it also plays an important role in protecting the built environment. Ill
equipped drainage systems to handle the storm water runoff may not be
adequate to handle future rainfalls events.
6.12.3 Roads:
The roads and accessibility play an important role in the security dimension for
the citizens’ safety and exit routes. The roads should be designed to safe refuge
citizens in case of extreme flooding events elevated above the level of the flood.
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105
7 Conclusion
Climate change is an inevitable phenomenon that is expected to have a
disruptive impact on the coastal region of the Nile Delta
In this study has explored two approaches in dealing with coastal planning:
“Resistant and Resilient paradigms”. The choice between Resilience/Resistance
mainly presets the system response to confronting the possible external event
and describes how the natural system will be affected.
Upon the completion of an initial general vulnerability assessment in the
coastal district in Egypt. It was clear that there is a significant variation in the
population and economic concentration along the low-elevated coastal region.
The higher the population of the community, the higher the risk will be that a
small impact could cause high magnitude of disturbance. Same applies for the
economic aspect: the higher its economic contribution of the district, the more
it draws higher priorities towards political interference.
However, there is still lack of consensus and common understanding of the
factors that make some regions resilient and others vulnerable (Mueler, B
2012). The resilience of the system or city or region with high economic activity
and governance system can rebound more quickly than that of another region
with less importance.
This is obviously clear, that the complexity of coastal cities causes them to be
highly resistant and robust to changing or adapting to the SLR. Cities like
Alexandria count the highest share in the level of complexity of planning for
resettlement of the agglomerated coastal population. This makes the migration
of the vulnerable population very challenging, accompanied with high cost and
high level of disruption in economic structure as well.
106
In Alexandria, current methods of resistance (Hard Measures) are being
implemented to protect the coastal and built environment. The protection
measures are such as:
Sea walls
Breakwaters
Revetment Blocks
Groins
These measures are introduced to protect the city from storm surges and coastal
inundation. They are all considered resisting hard measures, and if breached
they will cause severe disruption on the coastal community. These are all robust
measures and generate high cost to be maintained and implemented. Also they
have a negative impact on the coastal environment and resulted in continuous
natural degradation, misuse of the natural resources and causing robust and
disengaged relationship between human and the surrounding natural
environment. Besides, they are not aesthetically pleasing.
That is to say, the more the external resistant protection of the community
increases, the more it becomes adapting to resistance and cannot withstand the
external threat. Increasing the resilience means introducing flexible measures
that empowers the community to adapt and be part of the process of
adaptation.
Several examples were presented to soften the existing measures and reduce the
impact of hazard on it.
This is not an indicator that hard measures are better to be avoided. There are
extreme conditions that require the introduction of a resistant hard measure. It
depends on the natural environment.
107
This will require early warning systems and adequate actions must be put in
place.
New Motobus, based on the hypothesis, they will be a continuation to the
existing paradigm of top-down planning process, an important change in
paradigm needs to be tackled.
An important change in response needs to take place in approaching new
coastal cities with a more holistic approach, taking into consideration climate
threats of SLR during the initial planning process.
Coastal resilience is the emerging planning paradigm for confronting the
potential climatic change and SLR, is perceived as a natural phenomenon rather
than a threat and not to wait for extreme events in order to start protecting
communities from flooding and using soft measures that can reduce the impact
of climate change and sea level rise and create an interaction between the
natural system and the built community.
In order to become more resilient, there is an urge for cities and regions to
adopt climate change in the initial planning process and design strategies. This
aims at increasing the capacity of the community—its economic, social, and
physical capacity—to better respond to climatic events of flooding
independently of external forces.
The most suitable adaptation strategies for newly developed communities, the
full implication of the climatic issues must be taken into account and it must be
realized that the early presented general strategies of the IPCC of protection,
accommodation and retreat need to be integrated into the initial planning
process. This will happen taking into consideration numerous other non-
climatic measures in the adaptation process which include reversing the
conventional mind-set of mere usage of hard measures and introducing
resilience-oriented thinking. This will require a change in the adaptation
108
strategies, like replacing the sea walls by beach nourishment and coastal
vegetation and to re-think of adaptable urban configuration.
109
110
111
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Figure 2: Author
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Remote Sensing Center, Cairo; DIERCKE Weltwirtschaftsatlas
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Remote Sensing Center, Cairo; DIERCKE Weltwirtschaftsatlas
Figure 9: Otto Simonett, UNEP/GRID-Geneva; Prof. G. Sestini, Florence;
Remote Sensing Center, Cairo; DIERCKE Weltwirtschaftsatlas
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Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.
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125
List of Meeting
Contact
Person
Field Position Institute Date
Dr.
Mohamed
Asar
Architecture GOPP
Thomas
Abeling
Resilience PHD Student UNO
University
15-12-2012
Abdul
Moneam El
Fiky
Delta
Fragmentation
PHD Student
Urban
Planning
USTUTT
Dr. Abbas El
Zaafarany
Environmental
Design &
planning
Prof. Dr University of
Urban
Planning
Cairo
University
18-
19.02.2013
Mohamed
Salin
PHD University of
Hamburg
Dr. Omar
Badawy
Hydrology Regional
Manager Land
Resources
Programme
CEDARE 5.3.2013
Mrs. Engy Environmental
Science
Head of
adaptation
department
EEAA 17/3/2013
Mrs. Lydia EEAA 17/3/2013
126
Elwa
Mr. Sherif EEAA
Mr. Ehab
Samir
Civil Engineer Building
Regulations
EEAA
Prof. Dr Kareem Rakha Coastal
Engineer
Cairo
University
Mr. Abdel
Kereem
Coastal
Engineer
Prof. Dr
Mohamed
EL Raey
Environmental
science
Amr Abdel
Megeed
Regional
Program
Manager
Environmental
Governance
and Resilience
Program
CEDARE 14/4/2013
Amed Abdel
Rehim
Regional
Program
Manager
Knowledge
Manager
Programme
CEDARE 14/4/2013
Dr.Medhat Coastal
Reseach
institute
Dr. Essam
Fouad
Coastal
Research
Institute
30/4/2013
Dr. Essam
Fouad
Coastal
Research
Institute
13/5/2013
127
128
Arabic Summary
الخالصة
التغيرات المناخيه هى ظاهره لها تاثير على البيئه و الحياه االجتماعيه بالمناطق الساحليه لدلتا نهر النيل مما
فى . يؤدى الى االحتياج لوضع استراتجيات للحفاظ على البيئه الطبيعيه خاصة مع زىادة التطور و زيادة السكان
يط الساحل عن طرىق نموذج يمثل اسلوب المقاومة و آخر يمثل هذه الدراسه يعرض توجهان للتعامل مع تخط
.اسلوب المرونة فى التعامل مع هذه التغيرات
المرونة يمثل منظومة رد الفعل لمواجهة األحداث الخارجية المتوقعة ويعرض و يشرح تأثر النظم /نظام المقاومة
فى مصر لتبَين أن هناك اختالف فى عدد السكان و لذا تمت دراسة المناطق المهددة على الساحل . الطبيعية بذلك
جد أنه كلما زاد عدد السكان واألنشطة ’النشاط االقتصادى فى المناطق الساحلية المختلفة المنخفضة وبالتالى و
الالقتصادية كان أقل تهديد يؤدي الى اثارة حجم كبير من الفوضى التى تتطلب تدُخل سياسى و مساعدات من
وهذا واضح فى المدن الساحلية المعقدة التركيب و . تمام عمليات نقل البنية التحتية و اعادة التسكينقوى خارجية إل
.لمواجهة آثار ارتفاع منسوب البحر(اساليب المقاومة)المعتمدة على
وبها و مثال على ذلك مدينة االسكندرىة التى تعتبر ذات النصيب االكبر فى تعقيدات التخطيط فهى مقامة بالفعل .
كيانات اجتماعية واقتصادية ونظم للتعامل مع الغمر لمنع اختراق الساحل بالماء باالضافة الى حجم البنية االساسية
و حجم النمو االجتماعى واالقتصادى مما يجعل النظام الحالى ال يستطيع مواجهة تحديات التغيرات المناخية و
مثل ,اسة الحكومة هى التعامل مع الحدث و ليس منع الحدث خاصة ان سي,اكثر مقاومة للتحول الى نظام جديد
( الطرق الصلبة)يستخدم فى مدينة االسكندرىة لحماية الساحل طرق المقاومة ..عمل حاجز للمقاومة لحماية المدن
هذه االسالىب مستخدمة لحماية المدينة من العواصف ...الكتل الخرسانية-كاسرات االمواج-حوائط البحر:مثل
باالضافة الى أنها تستلزم صيانة دورية ذات .نيفة و الغمر و قد يؤدى اختراقها الى اضطراب المجتمع الساحلى الع
و ينتج عنها سوء استخدام للمصادر الطبيعية وتدهور العالقة ,ولها تأثير سلبى على البيئة الساحلية ,تكلفة عالية
لحماية المجتمع ( األسالىب المقاومة )االعتبار أنه كلما زادت مع األخذ فى.بين االنسان و البيئة الطبيعية من حوله
.كلما أصبح أكثر مقاومة للتعايش و ال يستطيع التعامل مع التهديد الخارجى,
يعنى استخدام أساليب أكثر مرونة تجعل المجتمع يستطيع التأقلم و تجعله جزء من ( االساليب المرنة)استخدام
تغذية الساحل :هناك أمثلة عديدة يمكن استخدامها لليونة االساليب الصلبة الموجودة مثل ...عملية التأقلم
129
و ذلك لتقليل تأثير ,ن الرملية بطريقة بيولوجيةو تثبيت الكثبا,زيادة المناطق المزروعة على الساحل ,بالرمال
على طول الساحل و تقليل التأثير السلبى المصاحب لألساليب الصلبة و هذا ال يعنى أنه يجب ( الطرق الصلبة)
باإلضافة الى . تجنب الطرق الصلبة ألنه توجد بعض الحاالت التى تستوجب استخدامها وذلك حسب طبيعة البيئة
.حذيرية ورد فعل مدروس و موضوع فى مكانه الصحيحوجود أنظمة ت
لتغيير منهجى متكامل ونظام " مدينة مطوبس الجديدة هى مدينة ساحلية جديدة البد من انشائها من البداية تبعا
مع ضرورة التعامل مع ارتفاع .)شامل يضع فى اإلعتبار التغيرات المناخية و ارتفاع منسوب البحر المتوقع
هذا باإلضافة إلى عدم اإلنتظار حتى حدوث آثار شديدة (, على أنه ظاهرة طبيعىة و ليس تهديد منسوب البحر
يقلل من هذه األثار باإلضافة الى خلق ( األسالىب المرنة)فإستخدام ..تإلغراق إلتخاذ اجراءات الحماية للمجتمع
راتجيات عن طرىق تحليل و هذا يتطلب وضع خطة مبدئية و است, تفاعل بين نظام الطبيعة و المجنمع
استراتيجيات منظمة العامة للحماية و التأقلم و اعادة المعالجة مع األخذ فى اإلعتبار الطرق الغير معتمدة على
( الطرق المرنة )و ادخال ,( الطرق الصلبة)التغيرات المناخىة مثل تغيير العقول التقليدية التى ال تستعمل سوى
.للتفكير
ر فى اإإلستراتجيات التقليدية للتأقلم مثل استبدال انشاء حوائط البحر بتغذية الشواطئ بالرمال و يتطلب تغيي هذا و
زراعة الساحل و هو ما يؤدى الى التأقلم مع التغيرات المناخية و زيادة قدرة المجتمع السكانية و اإلقتصادية و
.البنائية على رد فعل مناسب و بدون مساعدة قوى خارجية
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