IV Annexes I to IV

545

This annex should be cited as:

IPCC, 2012: Authors and expert reviewers annex. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate

Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner,

S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 545-553.

I Authors and Expert ReviewersANNEX

546

ArgentinaVicente Barros, CIMA/Universidad de Buenos AiresInes Camilloni, CIMA/Universidad de Buenos AiresHernan Carlino, Universidad Torcuato Di TellaMario Nunez, CIMA/Universidad de Buenos AiresMatilde Rusticucci, Universidad de Buenos AiresHaris Eduardo Sanahuja, Senior ConsultantPablo Suarez, Boston University, Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate CentreCarolina Vera, CIMA/Universidad de Buenos Aires

AustraliaJonathan Abrahams, World Health OrganizationLisa Alexander, The University of New South WalesJulie Arblaster, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Australian Bureau of

MeteorologyJon Barnett, Melbourne UniversityIan Carruthers, National Climate Change Adaptation Research FacilityBob Cechet, Geoscience AustraliaLynda Chambers, Australian Bureau of MeteorologyJohn Church, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research OrganizationPaul Della-Marta, Partner Reinsurance CompanyAmy Dumbrell, Australian Government Department of Climate Change and Energy

EfficiencyJill Edwards, Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities CouncilAilie Gallant, University of MelbourneJohn Handmer, Centre for Risk and Community Safety, RMIT UniversityMark Hemer, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research OrganizationAdriana Keating, RMIT UniversityMonique Ladds, RMIT UniversityPadma Narsey Lal, International Union for Conservation of Nature-OceaniaYun Li, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research OrganisationKathleen McInnes, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization,

Marine and Atmospheric ResearchNeville Nicholls, Monash University, School of Geography and Environmental ScienceLauren Amy Rickards, University of MelbourneAnthony Swirepik, Australia Government Department of Climate Change and

Energy EfficiencyFrank Thomalla, Macquarie UniversityRichard Thornton, Bushfire Cooperative Research CentreBlair Trewin, Australian Bureau of MeteorologyAnya M. Waite, University of Western AustraliaXiaoming Wang, Commonwealth Scientifc and Industrial Research OrganisationPenny Whetton, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research OrganisationJoshua Whittaker, RMIT University

AustriaStefan Hochrainer, International Institute for Applied System AnalysisHelmut Hojesky, Bundesministerium fur Land-und Forstwirtschaft, Umwelt und

WasserwirtschaftKlaus Radunsky, Umweltbundesamt GmbHPetra Tschakert, Pennsylvania State University

BangladeshMd. Siarjul Islam, North South UniversityTarik ul Islam, United Nations Development Programme-BangladeshAlimullah Miyan, South Asian Disaster Management Centre, International University

of Business, Agriculture, and TechnologyAinun Nishat, BRAC UniversityAtaur Rahman, Centre for Global Environmental Culture, International University of

Business, Agriculture, and Technology

BelgiumJohan Bogaert, Flemish Government

Lieven Bydekerke, VITO – Flemish Institute for Technological ResearchCathy Clerbaux, Universite Libre de Bruxelles and CNRS FranceLuc Feyen, Joint Research Centre, European CommissionLeen Gorissen, VITO – Flemish Institute for Technological ResearchJulien Hoyaux, Agence Wallonne de l’Air et du ClimatPhilippe Marbaix, Université Catholique de LouvainAnne Mouchet, Universite de LiegeAndrea Tilche, European Commission DirectorateHans van de Vyvere, Royal Meteorological Institute of BelgiumJean-Pascal van Ypersele, Université Catholique de LouvainMartine Vanderstraeten, Belgian Federal Science PolicyPatrick Willems, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven

BotswanaPauline Dube, University of Botswana

BrazilAndre Odenbreit Carvalho, Environmental Policy and Sustainable DevelopmentJose Marengo, National Institute for Space Research, Earth System Science CentreJose Domingos Gonzales Miguez, Tecnologia Commission for Global Climate ChangeCarlos Nobre, Ministry of Science and TechnologyVinicius Rocha, Operador Nacional do Sistema ElétricoMaria Assuncao Silva Dias, University of Sao Paulo

CanadaHeather Auld, Environment CanadaAnik Beaudoin, Foreign Affairs and International Trade CanadaPeter Berry, Climate Change and Health Office, Health CanadaMarie Boehm, Agriculture and Agri-Food CanadaRoy Brooke, United NationsRoss Brown, Environment Canada at OuranosStephen Burridge, Foreign Affairs and International Trade CanadaIan Burton, University of TorontoElizabeth Bush, Environment CanadaJohn Clague, Simon Fraser UniversityJ. Graham Cogley, Trent UniversityNeil Comer, Environment CanadaJohn Cooper, Health CanadaThea Dickinson, Burton Dickinson ConsultingKaren Dodds, Environment CanadaJimena Eyzaguirre, National Round Table on the Environment and the EconomyDonald Forbes, Natural Resources CanadaJim Frehs, Health CanadaNathan P. Gillett, Environment CanadaSunling Gong, Environment CanadaChristian Gour, Foreign Affairs and International Trade CanadaPatrick Hebert, Foreign Affairs and International Trade CanadaOle Hendrickson, Environment CanadaMatt Jones, Environment CanadaDan Jutzi, Environment CanadaViatcheslav V. Kharin, Environment CanadaGrace Koshida, Environment CanadaPaul Kovacs, Institute for Catastrophic Loss ReductionBeth Lavender, Foreign Affairs and International Trade CanadaDonald Lemmen, Natural Resources CanadaGuilong Li, Environment CanadaBrad Little, Environment CanadaJohn Loder, Fisheries and Oceans CanadaHeather Low, Foreign Affairs and International Trade CanadaKatie Lundy, Environment CanadaGordon McBean, Institute for Catastrophic Loss ReductionBrian Mills, Environment CanadaSeung-Ki Min, Environment Canada

Authors and Expert Reviewers Annex I

547

Monirul Mirza, Environment CanadaNiall O’Dea, Natural Resources CanadaMichael Ott, Fisheries and Oceans CanadaWilliam Perrie, Fisheries and Oceans CanadaPaul Pestieau, Environment CanadaCaroline Rodgers, Clean Air Partnership, TorontoSlobodan Simonovic, University of Western OntarioSharon Smith, Natural Resources CanadaRonald Stewart, University of ManitobaJohn Stone, Carleton UniversityRoger B. Street, UK Climate Impacts ProgrammeKit Szeto, Environment CanadaRichard Tarasofsky, Foreign Affairs and International Trade CanadaMartin Tremblay, Indian and Northern Affairs CanadaLiette Vasseur, Brock UniversityElizabeth Walsh, Natural Resources CanadaXiaolan Wang, Environment CanadaBin Yu, Environment CanadaXuebin Zhang, Environment CanadaFrancis Zwiers, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria

ChilePaulina Aldunce, University of ChileDaniel Barrera, Ministry of AgricultureGonzalo Leon, Ministry of EnvironmentAlejandro León, Universidad de ChileSebastian Vicuna, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile

ChinaXing Chen, Nanjing UniversityYing Chen, Chinese Academy of Social SciencesQin Dahe, China Meteorological AdministrationShibo Fang, Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesQiang Feng, Chinese Academy of SciencesGe Gao, National Climate Center, China Meteorological AdministrationDaoyi Gong, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource EcologyAnhong Guo, Agrometeorological Center of National Meteorological CentreTong Jiang, China Meteorological AdministrationJianping Li, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesJing Li, Beijing Normal UniversityNing Li, Beijing Normal UniversityErda Lin, Chinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesHongbin Liu, China Meteorological AdministrationXinhua Liu, Severe Weather Prediction Center of National Meteorological CenterHouquan Lu, National Meteorological CenterXianfu Lu, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeYali Luo, Chinese Academy of SciencesWenjun Ma, Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityHuixin Meng, Institute for Urban and Environment StudiesJiahua Pan, Chinese Academy of Social SciencesGubo Qi, College of Humanities and Development StudiesFumin Ren, China Meteorological AdministrationGuoyu Ren, Chinese Academy of Social SciencesWU Shaohong, Institute of Geographical Sciences, Chinese Academy of SciencesShangbai Shi, Chinese Academy of Social SciencesYing Sun, China Meteorological AdministrationChangke Wang, China Meteorological AdministrationDongming Wang, Policy StudyJianwu Wang, Chinese Academy of Social SciencesMing Wang, Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency ManagementXiaoyi Wang, Institute of SociologyYongguang Wang, China Meteorological AdministrationFengying Wei, China Meteorological Administration

Jet-Chau Wen, National Yunlin University of Science and TechnologyXiangyang Wu, Research Centre for Sustainable DevelopmentLiyong Xie, Shenyang Agricultural UniversityWei Xu, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource EcologyYinlong Xu, Chinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesZheng Yan, Institute of Urban and Environmental StudiesSaini Yang, Beijing Normal UniversityTao Ye, State Key Lab of Earth Surface Processes and Resource EcologyYi Yuan, National Disaster Reduction Center of ChinaYin Yunhe, Institute of Geographical Sciences, Chinese Academy of SciencesPanmao Zhai, Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChenyi Zhang, China Meteorological AdministrationZhao Zhang, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource EcologyZong-Ci Zhao, National Climate CenterGuangsheng Zhou, China Meteorological AdministrationHongjian Zhou, Nationals Disaster Reduction Center of ChinaTao Zhou, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource EcologyTianjun Zhou, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsFurong Zhu, Ningxia Economic Research CenterXukai Zou, China Meteorological Administration

ColombiaAna Campos-Garcia, ConsultantOmar-Dario Cardona, Universidad Nacional de ColombiaCarmen Lacambra, Cambridge Coastal Research UnitPedro Simon Lamprea Quiroga, Colombian Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology, and

Environmental StudiesWalter Vergara, Inter-American Development BankGustavo Wilches-Chaux, Universidad Andina Simon Bolivar

Cook IslandsArona Ngari, Cook Islands Meteorological Service

Costa RicaAllan Lavell, Programme for the Social Study of Risk and DisasterRoberto Villalobos Flores, Instituto Meteorologico Nacional

CubaRaul J. Garrido Vazquez, Ministry Science, Technology and EnvironmentTomas Gutierrez Perez, Instituto de MeteorologiaAvelino G. Suarez, Institute of Ecology and Systematic, Cuban Environmental Agency

CyprusSilas Michaelides, Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Environment

DenmarkKirsten Halsnaes, Risø DTUTorkil Jonch Clausen, DHIAnne Mette Jorgensen, Centre Danish MeteorologicalKaren G. Villholth, GEUS, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland

EgyptFatma El Mallah, League of Arab StatesWadid Fawzy Erian, Arab Center for the Studies of Arid Zones and Dry LandsAmal Saad-Hussein, National Research CentreAdel Yasseen, Ain Shams University, Institute of Environmental Research and Studies

El SalvadorLuis Ernesto Romano, Centro Humboldt Nicaragua

FinlandTimothy Carter, Finnish Environment InstituteHilppa Gregow, Finnish Meteorological Institute

Annex I Authors and Expert Reviewers

548

Simo Haanpää, Aalto UniversityPirkko Heikinheimo, Prime Minister’s Office of FinlandSusanna Kankaanpää, HSY Helsinki Region Environmental Services AuthoritySanna Luhtala, Ministry of Agriculture and ForestryMarkku Niinioja , Ministry for Foreign AffairsHannu Raitio, Finnish Forest Research InstituteKaroliina Saarniharo, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeKristiina Säntti, Finnish Meteorological InstituteHeikki Tuomenvirta, Finnish Meteorological InstituteElina Vapaavuori, Finnish Forest Research InstituteHanna Virta, Finnish Meteorological Institute

FranceFranck Arnaud, Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development, Transport, and HousingSlimane Bekki, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire Atmospheres, Milieux,

Observations SpatialesNicolas Beriot, Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development, Transport, and HousingOlivier Bommelaer, Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development, Transport, and

HousingOlivier Boucher, Met Office Hadley CentrePaul-Henri Bourrelier, French Association for Disaster Risk ReductionJean-Marie Carriere, Meteo-FranceFabrice Chauvin, Meteo-FranceChantal Claud, Institute Pierre-Simon, Laboratoire de Meteorologie DynamiqueFabio D’Andrea, Institute Pierre-Simon, Laboratoire de Meteorologie DynamiqueSylvie de Smedt, Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development, Transport and HousingHenri Decamps, Centre National de la Recherche ScientifiquePascale Delecluse, Meteo-FranceMichel Deque, Meteo-FrancePierre-Yves Dupuy, Service Hydrographique et Oceanographique de la MarineNicolas Eckert, CemagrefRene Feunteun, French Association for Disaster Risk ReductionJC Gaillard, The University of AucklandFrancois Gerard, French Association for Disaster Risk ReductionMarc Gillet, Meteo-FrancePascal Girot, IUCNFrederic Grelot, CemagrefDelphine Grynszpan, UK Health Protection Agency Eric Guilyardi, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire D’Oceanographie et du ClimatStephane Hallegatte, CIRED and Meteo-FranceSylvie Joussaume, Paris Consortium on ClimateReza Lahidji, Groupement de Recherches en Gestion a HECMichel Lang, CemagrefGoneri Le Cozannet, Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et MinieresJean-Michel Le Quentrec, French Association for Disaster Risk ReductionAntoine Leblois, CIREDAlexandre Magnan, Institute fior Sustainable Development and International RelationsEric Martin, Meteo-FranceOlivier Mestre, Meteo-FranceDavid Meunier, Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development, Transport, and HousingHormoz Modaressi, Bureau of Geological and Mining ResearchRoland Nussbaum, Mission Risques NaturelsSylvie Parey, EDF-FranceCedric Peinturier, Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development, Transport, and HousingMichel Petit, Conseil General de L’industrie, de L’energie et des TechnologiesPierre Picard, Ecole PolytechniqueSerge Planton, Méto-FranceValentin Przyluski, Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le

DeveloppementJean-Luc Salagnac, Centre Scientifique et Technique de BatimentBernard Seguin, INRAKaren Sudmeier-Reiux, University of Lausanne, IUCN Commission on Ecosystems

Management

Nicolas Taillefer, Centre Scientifique et Technique de BatimentJean-Philippe Torterotot, CemagrefRobert Vautard, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et

de l’EnvironnementJean-Philippe Vidal, CemagrefVincent Viguié, Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le

DéveloppementPascal Yiou, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement

GermanyGotelind Alber, Women for Climate JusticeChristoph Bals, GermanwatchHubertus Bardt, Cologne Institute for Economic ResearchAndreas Baumgärtner, Project Management Agency of DLR, German IPCC

Coordination OfficePaul Becker, German Weather ServiceJoern Birkmann, UN University Institute for Environment and Human SecurityHans-Georg Bohle, University of BonnHans Gunter Brauch, Freie Universitaet BerlinMichael Bründl, WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLFAchim Daschkeit, German Federal Environment AgencyCarmen de Jong, University of SavoyThomas Deutschländer, German Meteorological ServicePaul Dostal, Project Management Agency of DLRDirk Engelbart, Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban DevelopmentEberhard Faust, Munich Reinsurance CompanyRoland Fendler, German Federal Environment AgencyTobias Fuchs, German Weather ServiceHans-Martin Fuessel, European Environment AgencyStefan Goessling-Reisemann, University of BremenRobert Grassmann, Deutsche Welthungerhilfe e.V.Edeltraud Guenther, Technische Universität DresdenJosef Haider, KfW Development BankAngela Michiko Hama, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster ReductionSven Harmeling, GermanwatchFred Fokko Hattermann, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchGabriele Hegerl, University of EdinburghHans-Joachim Herrmann, German Federal Environment AgencyAnne Holsten, Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact ResearchAnke Jentsch, University of Koblenz-LandauMarcus Kaplan, German Development InstituteChristina Koppe-Schaller, Deutscher WetterdienstChristoph Kottmeier, Karlsruhe Institute of TechnologyFrank Kreienkamp, Climate and Environment Consulting Potsdam GmbHChristian Kuhlicke, Helmhotz Centre for Environmental ResearchBirgit Kuna, Project Management Agency of DLRNana Künkel, German Agency for International DevelopmentMichael Kunz, Karlsruhe Institute of TechnologyOle Langniss, Fichtner GmbH & Co KGRocio Lichte, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangePetra Mahrenholz, German Federal Environment AgencyReinhard Mechler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna

University of EconomicsBettina Menne, World Health Organization, Regional Office for EuropeAnnette Mohner, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeGuido Mücke, German Federal Environment AgencyChristian L.C. Müller, Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation,

and Nuclear SafetyClaudia Pahl-Wostl, Institute of Environmental Systems Research, University of

OsnabruckGertrude Penn-Bressel, German Federal Environment AgencyJurgen Pohl, University of BonnJoerg Rapp, Deutscher Wetterdienst

Authors and Expert Reviewers Annex I

549

Markus Reichstein, Max-Planck Institute for BiogeochemistryJoachim Rock, Johann Heinrich von Thuenen-InstituteBenno Rothstein, University of Applied Forest Sciences RottenburgPeter Rottach, Diakonie Katastrophenhilfe ConsultantJulia Rufin, Federal Minitry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Nuclear

SafetyEvelina Santa, Federal Ministry of Education and ResearchPhilipp Schmidt-Thome, Geological Survey of FinlandGudrun Schütze, German Federal Environment AgencyReimund Schwarze, Helmholtz Center for Environmental ResearchJoachim H. Spangenberg, Sustainable Europe Research InstituteFrank Sperling, World Wildlife Fund, NorwayJochen Stuck, Project Management Agency of DLRSwenja Surminski, Association of British InsurersChristiane Textor, Project Management Agency of DLR, German IPCC Coordination

OfficeAnnegret Thieken, University of PotsdamUwe Ulbrich, Freie Universitat BerlinMartine Vatterodt, Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and DevelopmentMonika Vees, German Federal Environment AgencyGottfried von Gemminingen, Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and

DevelopmentHans von Storch, GKSS Research CenterMartin Voss, Katastrophenforschungsstelle BerlinKoko Warner, United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human SecurityJuergen Weichselgartner, GKSS Research CenterJohanna Wolf, Memorial University of NewfoundlandSabine Wurzler, North Rhine Westphalia State Environment AgencyKarl-Otto Zentel, Deutsches Komitee Katastrophenvorsorge e.V.

GhanaSeth Vordzorgbe, United Nations Development Programme

GreeceChristina Anagnostopoulou, Aristotle University of ThessalonikiHelena Flocas, University of AthensPanagiota Galiatsatou, Aristotle University of ThessalonikiAntonis Koussis, National Observatory of AthensAristeidis Koutrouli, Technical University of CreteAthanasios Louka, University of ThessalyPetroula Louka, Hellenic National Meteorological ServiceDimitrios Melas, Aristotle University of ThessalonikiPanayotis Prinos, Aristotle University of ThessalonikiIoannis Tsanis, Technical University of CreteAdonis Velegrakis, University of the AegeanChristos Zerefos, Academy of Athens

GuatemalaEdwin Castellanos, Universidad del Valle de Guatemala

HungaryJoseph Feiler, Ministry of National DevelopmentFerenc L. Tóth, International Atomic Energy Agency

IcelandHalldor Bjornsson, Icelandic Meteorological OfficeHalldorSigrun Karlsdottir, Icelandic Meteorological OfficeArni Snorrason, Icelandic Meteorological Office

IndiaUnnikrishnan Alakkat, National Institute of OceanographySubbiah Arjunapermal, Asian Disaster Preparedness CenterSuruchi Bhadwal, The Energy and Resources Institute

Mihir Bhatt, India Disaster Mitigation InstituteAmit Garg, Indian Institute of Management AhmedabadB.N. Goswami, Indian Institute for Tropical MeteorologyManu Gupta, SEEDSUmesh Haritashya, University of DaytonRitesh Kumar, Wetlands International - South AsiaPradeep Mujumdar, Indian Institute of ScienceAnand Patwardhan, Indian Institute of Technology BombayApurva Sanghi, The World BankAkhilesh Surjan, United Nations University

IndonesiaEdvin Aldrian, Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika

IranRahman Davtalab, Ministry of EnergySaeid Eslamian, Isfahan University of TechnologyMahnaz Khazaee, Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research CenterMohammad Rahimi, Semnan UniversityFatemeh Rahimzadeh, Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research CenterSaviz Sehat Kashani, Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorological Research Center

IrelandIan Bryceson, Norwegian University of Life SciencesNoel Casserly, Department of the Environment

ItalyMarina Baldi, National Research Council, Institute of BiometeorologyRoberto Bertollini, World Health OrganizationFrancesco Bosello, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milan UniversityStefano Bovo, ARPA PiemonteCarlo Giupponi, University Ca’ Foscari of Venice and Euro-Mediterranean Centre for

Climate ChangeGeorg Kaser, University of InnsbruckValentina Pavan, ARPA Emilia-RomagnaRoberto Ranzi, University of BresciaCarlo Scaramella, World Food ProgrammeRodica Tomozeiu, ARPA Emilia-Romagna

JapanShiho Asano, Forestry and Forest Products Research InstituteFumiaki Fujibe, Meteorological Research InstituteKoji Fujita, Nagoya UniversityMasahiro Hashizume, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki UniversityYasushi Honda, University of TsukubaShinjiro Kanae, Tokyo Institute of TechnologyTakehiro Kano, Division Ministry of Foreign AffairsMiwa Kato, UNFCCC SecretariatHiroyasu Kawai, Port and Airport Research InstituteSo Kazama, Tohoku UniversityAkio Kitoh, Meteorological Research InstituteMasahide Kondo, University of TsukubaKazuo Kurihara, Meteorological Research InstituteShoji Kusunoki, Meteorological Research InstituteTakao Masumoto, National Institute for Rural Engineering, National Agriculture and

Food Research OrganizationNobuo Mimura, Ibaraki UniversityHisayoshi Morisugi, Nihon UniversityToshiyuki Nakaegawa, Meteorological Research InstituteElichi Nakakita, Kyoto UniversityMotoki Nishimori, National Institute for Agro-Environmental SciencesTaikan Oki, University of TokyoRajib Shaw, Kyoto University

Annex I Authors and Expert Reviewers

550

Hideo Shiogama, National Institute for Environmental StudiesYasuto Tachikawa, Kyoto UniversityKiyoshi Takahashi, National Institute for Environmental StudiesIzuru Takayabu, Meteorological Research InstituteKuniyoshi Takeuchi, International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk ManagementTadashi Tanaka, University of TsukubaMakoto Tani, Kyoto UniversityTsugihiro Watanabe, Research Institute for Humanity and NatureHiroya Yamano, National Institute for Environmental Studies

KenyaPeter Ambenje, Kenya Meteorological DepartmentSamwel Marigi, Kenya Meteorological DepartmentCharles Mutai, Ministry of Environment and Mineral ResourcesChristopher Oludhe, University of Nairobi, Department of Meteorology

LatviaOlga Vilima, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

MalaysiaJoy Jacqueline Pereira, Universiti Kebangsaan MalaysiaSalmah Zakaria, United Nations Economic and Social Commission

MauritaniaGueladio Cisse, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute

MexicoVictor Cardenas, Climate Change and Natural Disaster Risk ManagementTereza Cavazos, El Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de

EnsenadaCarolina Neri, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de MexicoUrsula Oswald-Spring, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoRicardo Zapata-Marti, United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and

the Caribbean

MongoliaRavsal Oyun, JEMR Consulting Company

MoroccoAbdalah Mokssit, Direction de la Météorologie Nationale

MozambiqueFelipe Lucio, Global Framework for Climate Services Office, WMO

New ZealandReid Basher, Secretariat of the High-Level Taskforce on the Global Framework for

Climate ServicesLeonard Brown, Ministry for the Environment - Manatu Mo Te TaiaoJohn Campbell, University of WaikatoJohn Hay, University of the South PacificGlenn McGregor, University of AucklandMatthew McKinnon, DARAHelen Plume, Ministry for the Environment - Manatu Mo Te TaiaoDavid Wratt, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

NigerAbdelkrim Ben Mohamed, University of Niamey

NorwayTorgrim Asphjell, Climate and Pollution AgencyRasmus Benestad, The Norwegian Meteorological InstituteTor A. Benjaminsen, Norwegian University of Life SciencesElzbieta Maria Bitner-Gregersen, Det Norske Veritas AS

Oyvind Christophersen, Climate and Pollution AgencySolveig Crompton, Ministry of the EnvironmentLinda Dalen, Norwegian Directorate for Nature ManagementLars Ingolf Eide, Det Norske VeritasSiri Eriksen, Norwegian University of Life SciencesChristoffer Grønstad, Climate and Pollution AgencyHege Haugland, Climate and Pollution AgencyHege Hisdal, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy DirectorateDag O. Høgvold, Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency PlanningLinn Bryhn Jacobsen, Climate and Pollution AgencyVikram Kolmannskog, Norwegian Refugee CouncilOle-Kristian Kvissel, Climate and Pollution AgencyFarrokh Nadim, International Centre for GeohazardsLars Otto Naess, Institute of Development StudiesKaren O’Brien, University of OsloEllen Øseth, Norwegian Polar InstituteMarit Viktoria Pettersen, Ministry of Foreign AffairsAsgeir Sorteberg, University of BergenLinda Sygna, University of OsloKirsten Ulsrud, University of OsloVigdis Vestreng, Climate and Pollution Agency

PakistanMuhammad Mohsin Iqbal, Global Change Impact Studies CentreJawed Ali Khan, Ministry of EnvironmentMaira Zahur, Women for Climate Justice

Palestinian National AuthorityNedal Katbeh-Bader, Environment Quality Authority

PeruEduardo Calvo, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San MarcosEncinas Carla, IntercooperationSilvia Llosa, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

PhilippinesImelda Abarquez, Oxfam Hong KongSanny Jegillos, United Nations Development ProgrammeRosa Perez, Manila Observatory

PolandJanusz Filipiak, Institute of Meteorology and Water ManagementZbigniew Kundzewicz, Polish Academy of SciencesZbigniew Ustrnul, Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Jagiellonian

UniversityJoanna Wibig, University of Lodz

Republic of KoreaSo-Min Cheong, University of KansasTae Sung Cheong, National Emergency Management AgencySoojeong Myeong, Korea Environment Institute

Republic of MaldivesAmjad Abdulla, IPCC Vice Chair WG II, Climate Change Energy Department,

Ministry of Housing and Environment

RomaniaRoxana Bojariu, National Meteorological AdministrationSorin Cheval, National Meteorological Administration

Russian FederationE. M. Akentyeva, Main Geophysical ObservatorySergey Borsch, Hydromet Center of Russia

Authors and Expert Reviewers Annex I

551

N. V. Kobysheva, Main Geophysical ObservatoryBoris Porfiriev, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of SciencesVladimir Semenov, A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsBoris Sherstyukov, All Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological

Information World Data Center

SenegalCherif Diop, Senegalese Meteorological Agency

South AfricaReinette (Oonsie) Biggs, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm UniversityBruce Glavovic, Massey UniversityBettina Koelle, Indigo Development and ChangeNoel Oettle, Environmental Monitoring GroupColeen Vogel, University of WitwatersrandGina Ziervogel, University of Cape Town

SpainEnric Aguilar, Universitat Rovira i VirgiliGerardo Benito, Spanish Council for Scientific ResearchJorge Bonnet Fernandez Trujillo, Government of the Canary IslandsFrancisco Garcia Novo, University of SevilleJosé Manuel Gutiérrez, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones CientíficasAna Iglesias, Universidad Politecnica de MadridJosé Antonio López-Díaz, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología Concepcion Martinez-Lope, Spanish Bureau for Climate Change José Moreno, University of Castilla-La ManchaFrancisco Pascual, Spanish Bureau for Climate ChangeJose Ramon Picatoste-Ruggeroni, Spanish Bureau for Climate ChangeErnesto Rodriguez-Camino, Spanish Meteorological AgencySabater Sergi, University Girona

SudanIsmail Fadl El Moula Mohamed, Sudan Meteorological AuthorityBalgis Osman-Elasha, African Development Bank

SwedenCecilia Alfredsson, Swedish Civil Contingencies AgencyLars Barring, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological InstituteSten Bergstrom, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological InstitutePelle Boberg, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological InstituteHenrik Carlsen, Swedish Defence Research AgencyCarl Folke, The Beijer Institute, Stockholm UniversityClarisse Kehler Siebert, Stockholm Environment InstituteCarina Keskitalo, Umea UniversityRichard Klein, Stockholm Environment InstituteGeorg Lindgren, Lund UniversityElin Lovendahl, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological InstituteBarbro Naslund-Landenmark, Swedish Civil Contingencies AgencyCarin Nilsson, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological InstituteUlrika Postgard, Swedish Civil Contingencies AgencyMarkku Rummukainen, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological InstituteJohan Schaar, Ministry of Foreign AffairsLisa Schipper, Stockholm Environment InstituteAke Svensson, Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency

SwitzerlandSimon Allen, IPCC WGI Technical Support UnitWalter J. Ammann, Global Risk Forum GRF DavosNeville Ash, United Nations Environment ProgrammeStefan Brönnimann, University of BernCarlo Casty, Partner Reinsurance CompanyNicole Clot, Intercooperation

Paul Della-Marta, Partner Reinsurance CompanyAndreas Fischlin, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Systems EcologyMarkus Gerber, University of Bern, Climate and Environmental PhysicsPeter Greminger, Federal Office for EnvironmentChristian Huggel, University of ZurichMatthias Huss, University of FribourgDaniel Kull, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent SocietiesJuerg Luterbacher, Justus Liebig UniversityJoy Muller, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent SocietiesUrs Neu, Swiss Academy of SciencesBoris Orlowsky, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ZurichPascal Peduzzi, United Nations Environment ProgrammeGian-Kasper Plattner, IPCC WGI Technical Support UnitDieter Rickenmann, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSLStephan Rist, Centre for Development and Environment, University of BernJose Romero, Federal Office for the EnvironmentSonia Seneviratne, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ZurichAndreas Spiegel, Swiss ReThomas Stocker, University of BernPhilippe Thalmann, EPFL Swiss Federal Institute of Technology LausanneHeinz Wanner, University of BernAndre Wehrli, European Environment AgencyHeini Wernli, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ZurichIrina Zodrow, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

TanzaniaEmmanuel Mpeta, Tanzania Meteorological AgencyKhamaldin Daud Mutabazi, Sokoine University of AgriculturePius Zebhe Yanda, University of Dar es Salaam

ThailandSeree Supratid, Rangsit University

The NetherlandsFrans Berkhout, Vrije UniversityLaurens Bouwer, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije UniversityHein W. Haak, The Royal Netherlands Meteorological InstituteAlbert Klein Tank, The Royal Netherlands Meteorological InstituteIrene Kreis, Health Protection AgencyAdriaan Perrels, Finnish Meteorological InstituteMaarten van Aalst, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate CentreBart van den Hurk, The Royal Netherlands Meteorological InstituteHenny A.J. van Lanen, Wageningen UniversityGeert Jan van Oldenborgh, The Royal Netherlands Meteorological InstituteJeroen Warner, Wageningen University

Trinidad and TobagoVeronica Belgrave, Ministry of Planning, Housing, and the Environment

TurkeySalahattin Incecik, Istanbul Technical University

United KingdomNeil Adger, Tyndall Centre, University of East AngliaAlex Arnall, University of ReadingNigel Arnell, University of ReadingVictoria Bell, Centre for Ecology and HydrologyEnrico Biffis, Imperial College, LondonKatrina Brown, University of East AngliaSimon Brown, Met Office Hadley CentreSal Burgess, UK Department for Environment, Food, and Rural AffairsHarriet Caldin, Health Protection AgencyDiarmid Campbell-Lendrum, World Health Organization

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Catriona Carmichael, Health Protection AgencyAmanda Charles, UK Government Office for ScienceDeclan Conway, University of East AngliaTim Conway, UK Department for International DevelopmentAnita Cooper, Health Protection AgencyGeoff Darch, Atkins Consultants and University of East AngliaIan Davis, Cranfield UniversityKen De Souza, UK Department for International DevelopmentAndrew Dlugolecki, Climatic Research UnitUniversity of East AngliaMaureen Fordham, Northumbria UniversityTim Forsyth, London School of Economics and Political ScienceClare Goodess, University of East Anglia Climatic Research UnitJim Hall, Newcastle UniversityLucy Hayes, UK Department of Energy and Climate ChangeClare Heaviside, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Health

Protection AgencyDebbie Hillier, Oxfam InternationalRobert Hodgson, University of ExeterSari Kovats, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineBo Lim, United Nations Development ProgrammeAndrew Maskrey, UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Michael McCall, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de MexicoWilliam McGuire, University College LondonThomas Mitchell, Overseas Development InstituteJohn Morton, Natural Resources Institute, University of GreenwichAlessandro Moscuzza, UK Department for International DevelopmentRobert Muir-Wood, Risk Management SolutionsVirginia Murray, Health Protection AgencyKatherine Nightingale, Christian AidGeoff O’Brien, Northumbria UniversityPhil O’Keefe, Northumbria UniversityJean Palutikof, Griffith UniversityMark Pelling, King’s College LondonEmily Polack, Institute of Development StudiesBen Ramalingam, Overseas Development InstituteNicola Ranger, London School of EconomicsJohn Rees, Natural Environment Research Council, UKHannah Rowlatt, Health Protection Agency and University of SheffieldSohel Saikat, Health Protection AgencyDavid Satterthwaite, International Institute for Environment & DevelopmentChris Sear, UK Department of Energy and Climate ChangeA. Simmons, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsRobert Siveter, International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation

AssociationDavid Smith, University of the West IndiesStephen Smith, UK Committee on Climate ChangeDavid Stephenson, University of ExeterPeter Stott, Met Office Hadley CentreRobert Sykes, International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation

AssociationThomas Tanner, Institute of Development StudiesAddis Taye, Health Protection ServicesEmma Tompkins, University of Southampton, Highfield CampusJohn Twigg, University College LondonSotiris Vardoulakis, Health Protection AgencyEmma Visman, Humanitarian Futures Programme, King’s College, LondonTim Waites, UK Department for International DevelopmentDavid Warrilow, UK Department of Energy and Climate ChangePaul Watkiss, Paul Watkiss AssociatesRobert Wilby, University of LoughboroughMichelle Winthrop, UK Department for International DevelopmentPhilip Woodworth, National Oceanography CentreRonald Young, Young International Ltd / Knowledge Associates International Ltd

United States of AmericaDavid Allen, US Global Change Research ProgramTom Armstrong, US Global Change Research ProgramJeff Arnold, US Army Corps of EngineersMargaret Arnold, The World BankBilal Ayyub, University of MarylandDonald Ballantyne, MMI EngineeringKo Barrett, National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationStephen Bender, Organization of American States (retired)Lisa M. Butler-Harrington, The Wharton School, Kansas State UniversityJoAnn Carmin, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyEdward Carr, US Administration for International DevelopmentDeWayne Cecil, National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationChristina Chan, US Department of StateDavid Cleaves, US Forest ServiceThomas Cronin, US Geological SurveySusan Cutter, University of South CarolinaKirstin Dow, University of South CarolinaDavid Easterling, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National

Climatic Data CenterKristie Ebi, IPCC WGII Technical Support UnitBarbara Ellis, Center for Disease ControlChristopher Emrich, University of South CarolinaSandy Eslinger, National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationRoss Faith, US Subcommittee on Disaster ReductionChristopher Field, Carnegie Institution for ScienceStephen Gill, National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationJustin Ginnetti, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster ReductionWilliam Gutowski, Iowa State UniversityD.E. (Ed) Harrison, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Pacific Marine

Environmental Laboratory Jerry Hatfield, US Department of AgricultureRobert Heilmayr, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program for Environment and Resources,

Stanford UniversityMolly Hellmuth, International Research Institute for Climate and SocietyJeremy Hess, Centers for Disease Control and PreventionRobert Hirsch, US Geological SurveyRobert Jarrett, US Geological SurveyTerry Jeggle, University of PittsburghMark Keim, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Paul Knappenberger, New Hope Environmental ServicesThomas Knutson, National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationJames Kossin, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic

Data CenterHoward Kunreuther, The Wharton School, University of PennsylvaniaDavid Lea, US Department of StateArthur Lee, Chevron Services CompanyRobin Leichenko, Rutgers UniversityMaria Carmen Lemos, University of MichiganRobert Lempert, RAND CorporationDavid Levinson, US Forest ServiceJoanne Linnerooth-Bayer, International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisPeter Liotta, Independent ScholarChris Little, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton

UniversityDavid Lobell, Stanford UniversityPat Longstaff, Syracuse UniversityAlexander Lotsch, The World BankMichael MacCracken, Climate InstituteKatharine Mach, IPCC WGII Technical Support UnitSimon Mason, Columbia UniversityMichael Mastrandrea, IPCC WGII Technical Support UnitSabrina McCormick, US Environmental Protection Agency

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Linda Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric ResearchJerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric ResearchChris Milly, US Geological SurveyJames Mitchell, Rutgers UniversityMarcus Moench, Institute for Social and Environmental TransitionSusanne Moser, Susanne Moser Research and ConsultingMeredith Muth, National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationRobert J Naiman, University of WashingtonRobert O’Connor, National Science FoundationIan O’Donnell, Asian Development BankMichael Oppenheimer, Princeton UniversityJacob Park, Green Mountain CollegeRoger Pielke Jr., University of Colorado David Pierce, Scripps Institution of OceanographyMark Powell, National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationMichael Prather, University of California, IrvineRoger Pulwarty, National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationDavid Reidmiller, US Department of StateDian Seidel, National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationEmil Simiu, National Institute of Standards and TechnologyAnthony-Oliver Smith, Emeritus, University of FloridaJoel Smith, Stratus ConsultingSusan Solomon, National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationDoreen Stabinsky, College of the AtlanticAmanda Staudt, National Wildlife FederationRonald Stouffer, National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationTrigg Talley, US Department of StateWassila Thiaw, National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationJohn Tiefenbacher, Texas State UniversitySezin Tokar, US Agency for International DevelopmentKevin E. Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric ResearchThomas Wagner, National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationRobert Webb, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Elke Weber, Columbia UniversityMichael Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryJason Westrich, University of Georgia, Odum School of EcologyThomas Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National LaboratoryBenjamin Wisner, Aon-Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, University College

LondonRichard Wright, American Society of Civil EngineersDonald Wuebbles, University of IllinoisTingjun Zhang, University of Colorado National Snow and Ice Data Center

VenezuelaMaria Teresa Abogado, Ministry of People’s Powers for Foreign AffairsJose Azuaje, Ministry of People’s Powers for Foreign AffairsSalvano Briceno, United NationsClaudia Salerno Caldera, Ministry of People’s Powers for Foreign AffairsIsabel Di Carlo Quero, Ministry of People’s Powers for Foreign AffairsRafael Hernandez, Ministry of People’s Powers for Foreign AffairsFederico Lagarde, Ministry of People’s Powers for Foreign AffairsAlejandro Linayo, Research Center on Disaster Risk ReductionLuis Jose Mata, International Monetary FundYessica Pereira, Ministry of People’s Powers for Foreign AffairsReina Perez, Ministry of People’s Powers for Foreign AffairsRafael Rebolledo, Ministry of People’s Powers for Foreign AffairsDirk Thielen, Ministry of People’s Powers for Foreign Affairs

VietnamMai Trong Nhuan, Vietnam National UniversityBach Tan Sinh, National Institute for Science and Technology Policy and Strategy

Studies

ZambiaRaban Chanda, University of Botswana

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This annex should be cited as:

IPCC, 2012: Glossary of terms. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation

[Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen,

M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 555-564.

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Abrupt climate change The nonlinearity of the climate system may lead to abrupt climatechange, sometimes called rapid climate change, abrupt events, or evensurprises. The term abrupt often refers to time scales faster than thetypical time scale of the responsible forcing. However, not all abruptclimate changes need be externally forced. Some changes may be trulyunexpected, resulting from a strong, rapidly changing forcing of anonlinear system.

AdaptationIn human systems, the process of adjustment to actual or expectedclimate and its effects, in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficialopportunities. In natural systems, the process of adjustment to actualclimate and its effects; human intervention may facilitate adjustment toexpected climate.

Adaptation assessment The practice of identifying options to adapt to climate change andevaluating them in terms of criteria such as availability, benefits, costs,effectiveness, efficiency, and feasibility.

Adaptive capacity The combination of the strengths, attributes, and resources available toan individual, community, society, or organization that can be used toprepare for and undertake actions to reduce adverse impacts, moderateharm, or exploit beneficial opportunities.

AerosolsA collection of airborne solid or liquid particles, with a typical sizebetween 0.01 and 10 μm, that reside in the atmosphere for at leastseveral hours. Aerosols may be of either natural or anthropogenicorigin. Aerosols may influence climate in several ways: directly throughscattering and absorbing radiation, and indirectly by acting as cloudcondensation nuclei or modifying the optical properties and lifetime ofclouds.

Albedo The fraction of solar radiation reflected by a surface or object, oftenexpressed as a percentage. Snow-covered surfaces have a high albedo,the surface albedo of soils ranges from high to low, and vegetation-covered surfaces and oceans have a low albedo. The Earth’s planetaryalbedo varies mainly through varying cloudiness, snow, ice, leaf area,and land cover changes.

AnthropogenicResulting from or produced by human beings.

Anthropogenic emissionsEmissions of greenhouse gases, greenhouse gas precursors, and aerosolsassociated with human activities. These activities include the burning offossil fuels, deforestation, land use changes, livestock, fertilization, etc.,that result in a net increase in emissions.

Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)A multi-decadal (65- to 75-year) fluctuation in the North Atlantic, inwhich sea surface temperatures showed warm phases during roughly1860 to 1880 and 1930 to 1960 and cool phases during 1905 to 1925and 1970 to 1990 with a range of the order of 0.4°C.

Atmosphere The gaseous envelope surrounding the Earth. The dry atmosphereconsists almost entirely of nitrogen (78.1% volume mixing ratio) andoxygen (20.9% volume mixing ratio), together with a number of tracegases, such as argon (0.93% volume mixing ratio), helium, and radiativelyactive greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (0.035% volume mixingratio) and ozone. In addition, the atmosphere contains the greenhousegas water vapor, whose amounts are highly variable but typicallyaround 1% volume mixing ratio. The atmosphere also contains cloudsand aerosols.

Available potential energy That portion of the total potential energy that may be converted tokinetic energy in an adiabatically enclosed system.

Baseline/referenceThe baseline (or reference) is the state against which change is measured.It might be a ‘current baseline,’ in which case it represents observable,present-day conditions. It might also be a ‘future baseline,’ which is aprojected future set of conditions excluding the driving factor of interest.Alternative interpretations of the reference conditions can give rise tomultiple baselines.

CapacityThe combination of all the strengths, attributes, and resources availableto an individual, community, society, or organization, which can be usedto achieve established goals.

Carbon cycle The term used to describe the flow of carbon (in various forms, e.g., ascarbon dioxide) through the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere,and lithosphere.

Carbon dioxide (CO2)A naturally occurring gas fixed by photosynthesis into organic matter.A byproduct of fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning, it is alsoemitted from land use changes and other industrial processes. It is theprincipal anthropogenic greenhouse gas that affects the Earth’s radiativebalance. It is the reference gas against which other greenhouse gasesare measured, thus having a Global Warming Potential of 1.

CatchmentAn area that collects and drains precipitation.

Clausius-Clapeyron relationship (or equation) The differential equation relating the pressure of a substance (usually

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water vapor) to temperature in a system in which two phases of thesubstance (water) are in equilibrium.

Climate Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average weather, ormore rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean andvariability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from monthsto thousands or millions of years. The classical period for averagingthese variables is 30 years, as defined by the World MeteorologicalOrganization. The relevant quantities are most often surface variablessuch as temperature, precipitation, and wind. Climate in a wider senseis the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system. Invarious chapters in this report different averaging periods, such as aperiod of 20 years, are also used.

Climate change A change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., byusing statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variabilityof its properties and that persists for an extended period, typicallydecades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internalprocesses or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changesin the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.1 See also Climatevariability and Detection and attribution.

Climate extreme (extreme weather or climate event) The occurrence of a value of a weather or climate variable above (orbelow) a threshold value near the upper (or lower) ends of the range ofobserved values of the variable. For simplicity, both extreme weatherevents and extreme climate events are referred to collectively as ‘climateextremes.’ The full definition is provided in Section 3.1.2.

Climate feedback An interaction mechanism between processes in the climate system iscalled a climate feedback when the result of an initial process triggerschanges in a second process that in turn influences the initial one. Apositive feedback intensifies the original process, and a negative feedbackreduces it.

Climate model A numerical representation of the climate system that is based on thephysical, chemical, and biological properties of its components, theirinteractions, and feedback processes, and that accounts for all or some ofits known properties. The climate system can be represented by modelsof varying complexity, that is, for any one component or combination of

components a spectrum or hierarchy of models can be identified, differingin such aspects as the number of spatial dimensions, the extent to whichphysical, chemical, or biological processes are explicitly represented, orthe level at which empirical parameterizations are involved. CoupledAtmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCMs), also referred to asAtmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models, provide a representationof the climate system that is near the most comprehensive end of thespectrum currently available. There is an evolution toward more complexmodels with interactive chemistry and biology. Climate models areapplied as a research tool to study and simulate the climate, and foroperational purposes, including monthly, seasonal, and interannual climatepredictions.

Climate projection A projection of the response of the climate system to emissions orconcentration scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiativeforcing scenarios, often based upon simulations by climate models.Climate projections are distinguished from climate predictions in orderto emphasize that climate projections depend upon the emission/concentration/radiative-forcing scenario used, which are based onassumptions concerning, e.g., future socioeconomic and technologicaldevelopments that may or may not be realized and are thereforesubject to substantial uncertainty.

Climate scenario A plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate,based on an internally consistent set of climatological relationships thathas been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potentialconsequences of anthropogenic climate change, often serving as inputto impact models. Climate projections often serve as the raw materialfor constructing climate scenarios, but climate scenarios usually requireadditional information such as about the observed current climate.

Climate system The climate system is the highly complex system consisting of five majorcomponents: the atmosphere, the oceans, the cryosphere, the landsurface, the biosphere, and the interactions between them. The climatesystem evolves in time under the influence of its own internal dynamicsand because of external forcings such as volcanic eruptions, solarvariations, and anthropogenic forcings such as the changing compositionof the atmosphere and land use change.

Climate thresholdA critical limit within the climate system that induces a non-linearresponse to a given forcing. See also Abrupt climate change.

Climate variability Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and otherstatistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) ofthe climate at all spatial and temporal scales beyond that of individualweather events. Variability may be due to natural internal processeswithin the climate system (internal variability), or to variations in natural

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1 This definition differs from that in the United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change (UNFCCC), where climate change is defined as: “a change of climatewhich is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the compositionof the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variabilityobserved over comparable time periods.” The UNFCCC thus makes a distinctionbetween climate change attributable to human activities altering the atmosphericcomposition, and climate variability attributable to natural causes.

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or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability). See also Climatechange.

Cold days/cold nightsDays where maximum temperature, or nights where minimumtemperature, falls below the 10th percentile, where the respectivetemperature distributions are generally defined with respect to the1961-1990 reference period.

Community-based disaster risk management See Local disaster risk management.

Confidence Confidence in the validity of a finding, based on the type, amount,quality, and consistency of evidence and on the degree of agreement.Confidence is expressed qualitatively.

Control runA model run carried out to provide a ‘baseline’ for comparison withclimate change experiments. The control run uses constant values forthe radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases and anthropogenicaerosols appropriate to pre-industrial conditions.

Convection Vertical motion driven by buoyancy forces arising from static instability,usually caused by near-surface cooling or increases in salinity in the caseof the ocean and near-surface warming in the case of the atmosphere.At the location of convection, the horizontal scale is approximately thesame as the vertical scale, as opposed to the large contrast betweenthese scales in the general circulation. The net vertical mass transport isusually much smaller than the upward and downward exchange.

Coping The use of available skills, resources, and opportunities to address,manage, and overcome adverse conditions, with the aim of achievingbasic functioning in the short to medium term.

Coping capacityThe ability of people, organizations, and systems, using available skills,resources, and opportunities, to address, manage, and overcomeadverse conditions.

Detection and attribution Climate varies continually on all time scales. Detection of climatechange is the process of demonstrating that climate has changed insome defined statistical sense, without providing a reason for thatchange. Attribution of causes of climate change is the process ofestablishing the most likely causes for the detected change with somedefined level of confidence.

DiabaticA process in which external heat is gained or lost by the system.

Disaster Severe alterations in the normal functioning of a community or a societydue to hazardous physical events interacting with vulnerable socialconditions, leading to widespread adverse human, material, economic,or environmental effects that require immediate emergency response tosatisfy critical human needs and that may require external support forrecovery.

Disaster managementSocial processes for designing, implementing, and evaluating strategies,policies, and measures that promote and improve disaster preparedness,response, and recovery practices at different organizational and societallevels.

Disaster riskThe likelihood over a specified time period of severe alterations in thenormal functioning of a community or a society due to hazardousphysical events interacting with vulnerable social conditions, leading towidespread adverse human, material, economic, or environmentaleffects that require immediate emergency response to satisfy criticalhuman needs and that may require external support for recovery.

Disaster risk management (DRM)Processes for designing, implementing, and evaluating strategies,policies, and measures to improve the understanding of disaster risk,foster disaster risk reduction and  transfer, and promote continuousimprovement in disaster preparedness, response, and recovery practices,with the explicit purpose of increasing human security, well-being,quality of life, and sustainable development.

Disaster risk reduction (DRR)Denotes both a policy goal or objective, and the strategic andinstrumental measures employed for anticipating future disaster risk;reducing existing exposure, hazard, or vulnerability; and improvingresilience.

Diurnal temperature range The difference between the maximum and minimum temperatureduring a 24-hour period.

Downscaling Downscaling is a method that derives local- to regional-scale (up to100 km) information from larger-scale models or data analyses. The fulldefinition is provided in Section 3.2.3.

Drought A period of abnormally dry weather long enough to cause a serioushydrological imbalance. Drought is a relative term (see Box 3-3),therefore any discussion in terms of precipitation deficit must refer tothe particular precipitation-related activity that is under discussion. Forexample, shortage of precipitation during the growing season impingeson crop production or ecosystem function in general (due to soil moisture

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drought, also termed agricultural drought), and during the runoff andpercolation season primarily affects water supplies (hydrological drought).Storage changes in soil moisture and groundwater are also affected byincreases in actual evapotranspiration in addition to reductions inprecipitation. A period with an abnormal precipitation deficit is defined asa meteorological drought. A megadrought is a very lengthy and pervasivedrought, lasting much longer than normal, usually a decade or more.

Early warning systemThe set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely andmeaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities, andorganizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriatelyand in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)The term El Niño was initially used to describe a warm-water currentthat periodically flows along the coast of Ecuador and Peru, disrupting thelocal fishery. It has since become identified with a basin-wide warmingof the tropical Pacific Ocean east of the dateline. This oceanic event isassociated with a fluctuation of a global-scale tropical and subtropicalsurface pressure pattern called the Southern Oscillation. This coupledatmosphere-ocean phenomenon, with preferred time scales of 2 toabout 7 years, is collectively known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.It is often measured by the surface pressure anomaly difference betweenDarwin and Tahiti and the sea surface temperatures in the central andeastern equatorial Pacific. During an ENSO event, the prevailing tradewinds weaken, reducing upwelling and altering ocean currents suchthat the sea surface temperatures warm, further weakening the tradewinds. This event has a great impact on the wind, sea surface temperature,and precipitation patterns in the tropical Pacific. It has climatic effectsthroughout the Pacific region and in many other parts of the world,through global teleconnections. The cold phase of ENSO is called La Niña.

Emissions scenario A plausible representation of the future development of emissions ofsubstances that are potentially radiatively active (e.g., greenhouse gases,aerosols), based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptionsabout driving forces (such as technological change, demographic andsocioeconomic development) and their key relationships. Concentrationscenarios, derived from emissions scenarios, are used as input to a climatemodel to compute climate projections. In the IPCC 1992 SupplementaryReport, a set of emissions scenarios was presented, which were used asa basis for the climate projections in the IPCC Second Assessment Report.These emissions scenarios are referred to as the IS92 scenarios. In theIPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, new emissions scenarios, theso-called SRES scenarios, were published. SRES scenarios (e.g., A1B,A1FI, A2, B1, B2) are used as a basis for some of the climate projectionsshown in Chapter 3 of this report.

Ensemble A group of parallel model simulations used for climate projections.Variation of the results across the ensemble members gives an estimate

of uncertainty. Ensembles made with the same model but differentinitial conditions only characterize the uncertainty associated withinternal climate variability, whereas multi-model ensembles includingsimulations by several models also include the impact of modeldifferences. Perturbed parameter ensembles, in which model parametersare varied in a systematic manner, aim to produce a more objectiveestimate of modeling uncertainty than is possible with traditional multi-model ensembles.

Evapotranspiration The combined process of evaporation from the Earth’s surface andtranspiration from vegetation.

ExposureThe presence of people; livelihoods; environmental services and resources;infrastructure; or economic, social, or cultural assets in places that couldbe adversely affected.

External forcing External forcing refers to a forcing agent outside the climate systemcausing a change in the climate system. Volcanic eruptions, solar variations,and anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere andland use change are external forcings.

Extratropical cyclone Any cyclonic-scale storm that is not a tropical cyclone. Usually refers toa middle- or high-latitude migratory storm system formed in regions oflarge horizontal temperature variations. Sometimes called extratropicalstorm or extratropical low.

Extreme coastal high water (also referred to as extreme sea level)Extreme coastal high water depends on average sea level, tides, andregional weather systems. Extreme coastal high water events areusually defined in terms of the higher percentiles (e.g., 90th to 99.9th)of a distribution of hourly values of observed sea level at a station for agiven reference period.

Extreme weather or climate eventSee Climate extreme.

FamineScarcity of food over an extended period and over a large geographicalarea, such as a country. Famines may be triggered by extreme climateevents such as drought or floods, but can also be caused by disease,war, or other factors.

Flood The overflowing of the normal confines of a stream or other body ofwater, or the accumulation of water over areas that are not normallysubmerged. Floods include river (fluvial) floods, flash floods, urbanfloods, pluvial floods, sewer floods, coastal floods, and glacial lakeoutburst floods.

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Frozen ground Soil or rock in which part or all of the pore water is frozen. Perenniallyfrozen ground is called permafrost. Ground that freezes and thawsannually is called seasonally frozen ground.

Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF)Flood associated with outburst of glacial lake. Glacial lake outburstfloods are typically a result of cumulative developments and occur (i)only once (e.g., full breach failure of moraine-dammed lakes), (ii) for thefirst time (e.g., new formation and outburst of glacial lakes), and/or (iii)repeatedly (e.g., ice-dammed lakes with drainage cycles, or ice fall).

Glacier A mass of land ice that flows downhill under gravity (through internaldeformation and/or sliding at the base) and is constrained by internalstress and friction at the base and sides. A glacier is maintained byaccumulation of snow at high altitudes, balanced by melting at lowaltitudes or discharge into the sea.

Global climate model (also referred to asgeneral circulation model, both abbreviated as GCM)See Climate model.

Global surface temperature The global surface temperature is an estimate of the global mean surfaceair temperature. However, for changes over time, only anomalies, asdepartures from a climatology, are used, most commonly based on thearea-weighted global average of the sea surface temperature anomalyand land surface air temperature anomaly.

Governance The way government is understood has changed in response to social,economic, and technological changes over recent decades. There is acorresponding shift from government defined strictly by the nation-stateto a more inclusive concept of governance, recognizing the contributionsof various levels of government (global, international, regional, local)and the roles of the private sector, of nongovernmental actors, and ofcivil society.

Greenhouse effect Greenhouse gases effectively absorb thermal infrared radiation, emittedby the Earth’s surface, by the atmosphere itself due to the same gases,and by clouds. Atmospheric radiation is emitted to all sides, includingdownward to the Earth’s surface. Thus, greenhouse gases trap heatwithin the surface-troposphere system. This is called the greenhouseeffect. Thermal infrared radiation in the troposphere is strongly coupledto the temperature of the atmosphere at the altitude at which it isemitted. In the troposphere, the temperature generally decreases withheight. Effectively, infrared radiation emitted to space originates froman altitude with a temperature of, on average, -19°C, in balance withthe net incoming solar radiation, whereas the Earth’s surface is kept ata much higher temperature of, on average, 14°C. An increase in the

concentration of greenhouse gases leads to an increased infraredopacity of the atmosphere and therefore to an effective radiation intospace from a higher altitude at a lower temperature. This causes aradiative forcing that leads to an enhancement of the greenhouse effect,the so-called enhanced greenhouse effect.

Greenhouse gas Greenhouse gases are those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere,both natural and anthropogenic, which absorb and emit radiation atspecific wavelengths within the spectrum of thermal infrared radiationemitted by the Earth’s surface, by the atmosphere itself, and by clouds.This property causes the greenhouse effect. Water vapor (H2O), carbondioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), and ozone (O3) arethe primary greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere. Moreover,there are a number of entirely human-made greenhouse gases in theatmosphere, such as the halocarbons and other chlorine- and bromine-containing substances, dealt with under the Montreal Protocol. BesidesCO2, N2O, and CH4, the Kyoto Protocol deals with the greenhouse gasessulfur hexafluoride (SF6), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and perfluorocarbons(PFCs).

Hazard The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical eventthat may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well asdamage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision,and environmental resources.

Heat wave (also referred to as extreme heat event)A period of abnormally hot weather. Heat waves and warm spells havevarious and in some cases overlapping definitions. See also Warm spell.

Holocene The Holocene geological epoch is the latter of two Quaternary epochs,extending from about 11.6 thousand years before present to andincluding the present.

Human security Human security can be said to have two main aspects. It means, first,safety from such chronic threats as hunger, disease, and repression. Andsecond, it means protection from sudden and hurtful disruptions in thepatterns of daily life – whether in homes, in jobs, or in communities.Such threats can exist at all levels of national income and development.

Hydrological cycle (also referred to as water cycle)The cycle in which water evaporates from the oceans and the landsurface, is carried over the Earth in atmospheric circulation as watervapor, condenses to form clouds, precipitates again as rain or snow, isintercepted by trees and vegetation, provides runoff on the land surface,infiltrates into soils, recharges groundwater, and/or discharges intostreams and flows out into the oceans, and ultimately evaporates againfrom the oceans or land surface. The various systems involved in thehydrological cycle are usually referred to as hydrological systems.

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ImpactsEffects on natural and human systems. In this report, the term ‘impacts’is used to refer to the effects on natural and human systems of physicalevents, of disasters, and of climate change.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)Large-scale interannual variability of sea surface temperature in theIndian Ocean. This pattern manifests through a zonal gradient of tropicalsea surface temperature, which in one extreme phase in boreal autumnshows cooling off Sumatra and warming off Somalia in the west,combined with anomalous easterlies along the equator.

Insurance/reinsuranceA family of financial instruments for sharing and transferring risk amonga pool of at-risk households, businesses, and/or governments. See Risktransfer.

Landslide A mass of material that has moved downhill by gravity, often assistedby water when the material is saturated. The movement of soil, rock,or debris down a slope can occur rapidly, or may involve slow, gradualfailure.

Land surface air temperature The air temperature as measured in well-ventilated screens over land at1.5 to 2 m above the ground.

Land use and land use changeLand use refers to the total of arrangements, activities, and inputsundertaken in a certain land cover type (a set of human actions). Theterm land use is also used in the sense of the social and economicpurposes for which land is managed (e.g., grazing, timber extraction,and conservation). Land use change refers to a change in the use ormanagement of land by humans, which may lead to a change in landcover. Land cover and land use change may have an impact on thesurface albedo, evapotranspiration, sources and sinks of greenhousegases, or other properties of the climate system and may thus haveradiative forcing and/or other impacts on climate, locally or globally.

Lapse rateThe rate of change of an atmospheric variable, usually temperature,with height. The lapse rate is considered positive when the variabledecreases with height.

Latent heat flux The flux of heat from the Earth’s surface to the atmosphere that isassociated with evaporation or condensation of water vapor at thesurface; a component of the surface energy budget.

Likelihood A probabilistic estimate of the occurrence of a single event or of anoutcome, for example, a climate parameter, observed trend, or projected

change lying in a given range. Likelihood may be based on statistical ormodeling analyses, elicitation of expert views, or other quantitativeanalyses.

Local disaster risk management (LDRM)The process in which local actors (citizens, communities, government,non-profit organizations, institutions, and businesses) engage in andhave ownership of the identification, analysis, evaluation, monitoring,and treatment of disaster risk and disasters,  through measures  thatreduce or anticipate  hazard, exposure, or vulnerability; transfer risk;improve disaster response and recovery; and promote  an overallincrease in capacities. LDRM normally requires  coordination with andsupport from external actors at the regional, national, or internationallevels. Community-based disaster risk management is a subset ofLDRM where community members and organizations are in the centerof decisionmaking.

Mass movementMass movement in the context of mountainous phenomena refers todifferent types of mass transport processes including landslides,avalanches, rock fall, or debris flows.

Mean sea level Sea level measured by a tide gauge with respect to the land upon whichit is situated. Mean sea level is normally defined as the average relative sealevel over a period, such as a month or a year, long enough to average outtransients such as waves and tides. See Sea level change.

Meridional overturning circulation (MOC) Meridional (north-south) overturning circulation in the ocean quantifiedby zonal (east-west) sums of mass transports in depth or density layers.In the North Atlantic, away from the subpolar regions, the MOC (whichis in principle an observable quantity) is often identified with thethermohaline circulation, which is a conceptual interpretation. However,it must be borne in mind that MOC can also include shallower, wind-driven overturning cells such as occur in the upper ocean in the tropicsand subtropics, in which warm (less dense) waters moving poleward aretransformed to slightly denser waters and subducted equatorward atdeeper levels.

Mitigation (of disaster risk and disaster)The lessening of the potential adverse impacts of physical hazards(including those that are human-induced) through actions that reducehazard, exposure, and vulnerability.

Mitigation (of climate change)A human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks ofgreenhouse gases.

Modes of climate variability Natural variability of the climate system, in particular on seasonal andlonger time scales, predominantly occurs with preferred spatial patterns

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and time scales, through the dynamical characteristics of the atmosphericcirculation and through interactions with the land and ocean surfaces.Such patterns are often called regimes, modes, or teleconnections.Examples are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific-NorthAmerican pattern (PNA), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), theNorthern Annular Mode (NAM; previously called the Arctic Oscillation,AO), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM; previously called theAntarctic Oscillation, AAO).

Monsoon A monsoon is a tropical and subtropical seasonal reversal in both thesurface winds and associated precipitation, caused by differentialheating between a continental-scale land mass and the adjacent ocean.Monsoon rains occur mainly over land in summer.

Nonlinearity A process is called nonlinear when there is no simple proportionalrelation between cause and effect. The climate system contains manysuch nonlinear processes, resulting in a system with a potentially verycomplex behavior. Such complexity may lead to abrupt climate change.See also Predictability.

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)The North Atlantic Oscillation consists of opposing variations in barometricpressure near Iceland and near the Azores. It therefore corresponds tofluctuations in the strength of the main westerly winds across theAtlantic into Europe, and thus to fluctuations in the embedded cycloneswith their associated frontal systems.

Northern Annular Mode (NAM)A winter fluctuation in the amplitude of a pattern characterized by lowsurface pressure in the Arctic and strong mid-latitude westerlies. NAMhas links with the northern polar vortex into the stratosphere. Itspattern has a bias to the North Atlantic and has a large correlation withthe North Atlantic Oscillation.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) The pattern and time series of the first empirical orthogonal function ofsea surface temperature over the North Pacific north of 20°N. PDObroadened to cover the whole Pacific Basin is known as the Inter-decadalPacific Oscillation (IPO). The PDO and IPO exhibit virtually identicaltemporal evolution.

Parameterization In climate models, this term refers to the technique of representingprocesses that cannot be explicitly resolved at the spatial or temporalresolution of the model (sub-grid scale processes) by relationshipsbetween model-resolved larger-scale flow and the area- or time-averagedeffect of such sub-grid scale processes.

Percentile A percentile is a value on a scale of 100 that indicates the percentage

of the data set values that is equal to or below it. The percentile is oftenused to estimate the extremes of a distribution. For example, the 90th(10th) percentile may be used to refer to the threshold for the upper(lower) extremes.

Permafrost Ground (soil or rock and included ice and organic material) that remainsat or below 0°C for at least 2 consecutive years.

Predictability The extent to which future states of a system may be predicted basedon knowledge of current and past states of the system.

Probability density function (PDF) A probability density function is a function that indicates the relativechances of occurrence of different outcomes of a variable. The functionintegrates to unity over the domain for which it is defined and has theproperty that the integral over a sub-domain equals the probability thatthe outcome of the variable lies within that sub-domain. For example,the probability that a temperature anomaly defined in a particular wayis greater than zero is obtained from its PDF by integrating the PDFover all possible temperature anomalies greater than zero. Probabilitydensity functions that describe two or more variables simultaneouslyare similarly defined.

Projection A projection is a potential future evolution of a quantity or set ofquantities, often computed with the aid of a model. Projections aredistinguished from predictions in order to emphasize that projectionsinvolve assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic andtechnological developments that may or may not be realized, and aretherefore subject to substantial uncertainty. See also Climate projectionand Climate prediction.

Proxy climate indicatorA proxy climate indicator is a local record that is interpreted, usingphysical and biophysical principles, to represent some combination ofclimate-related variations back in time. Climate-related data derived inthis way are referred to as proxy data. Examples of proxies includepollen analysis, tree ring records, characteristics of corals, and variousdata derived from ice cores. The term ‘proxy’ can also be used to referto indirect estimates of present-day conditions, for example, in theabsence of observations.

Radiative forcing Radiative forcing is the change in the net, downward minus upward,irradiance (expressed in W m–2) at the tropopause due to a change inan external driver of climate change, such as, for example, a change inthe concentration of carbon dioxide or the output of the Sun. Radiativeforcing is computed with all tropospheric properties held fixed at theirunperturbed values, and after allowing for stratospheric temperatures,if perturbed, to readjust to radiative-dynamical equilibrium. Radiative

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forcing is called instantaneous if no change in stratospheric temperatureis accounted for. For the purposes of this report, radiative forcing isfurther defined as the change relative to the year 1750 and, unlessotherwise noted, refers to a global and annual average value. Radiativeforcing is not to be confused with cloud radiative forcing, a similarterminology for describing an unrelated measure of the impact ofclouds on the irradiance at the top of the atmosphere.

Reanalysis Reanalyses are atmospheric and oceanic analyses of temperature, wind,current, and other meteorological and oceanographic quantities, createdby processing past meteorological and oceanographic data using fixedstate-of-the-art weather forecasting models and data assimilationtechniques. Using fixed data assimilation avoids effects from thechanging analysis system that occur in operational analyses. Althoughcontinuity is improved, global reanalyses still suffer from changingcoverage and biases in the observing systems.

Relative sea level See Mean sea level.

Resilience The ability of a system and its component parts to anticipate, absorb,accommodate, or recover from the effects of a hazardous event in atimely and efficient manner, including through ensuring the preservation,restoration, or improvement of its essential basic structures and functions.

Return period An estimate of the average time interval between occurrences of anevent (e.g., flood or extreme rainfall) of (or below/above) a defined sizeor intensity.

Return value The highest (or, alternatively, lowest) value of a given variable, onaverage occurring once in a given period of time (e.g., in 10 years).

Risk transfer The process of formally or informally shifting the financial consequencesof particular risks from one party to another whereby a household,community, enterprise, or state authority will obtain resources fromthe other party after a disaster occurs, in exchange for ongoing orcompensatory social or financial benefits provided to that other party.

Runoff That part of precipitation that does not evaporate and is not transpired,but flows through the ground or over the ground surface and returns tobodies of water. See Hydrological cycle.

Scenario A plausible and often simplified description of how the future maydevelop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptionsabout driving forces and key relationships. Scenarios may be derived

from projections, but are often based on additional information fromother sources, sometimes combined with a narrative storyline. See alsoClimate scenario and Emissions scenario.

Sea level changeChanges in sea level, globally or locally, due to (i) changes in the shapeof the ocean basins, (ii) changes in the total mass and distribution ofwater and land ice, (iii) changes in water density, and (iv) changes inocean circulation. Sea level changes induced by changes in waterdensity are called steric. Density changes induced by temperaturechanges only are called thermosteric, while density changes induced bysalinity changes are called halosteric. See also Mean sea level.

Sea surface temperature (SST) The sea surface temperature is the temperature of the subsurface bulktemperature in the top few meters of the ocean, measured by ships,buoys, and drifters. From ships, measurements of water samples inbuckets were mostly switched in the 1940s to samples from engine intakewater. Satellite measurements of skin temperature (uppermost layer; afraction of a millimeter thick) in the infrared or the top centimeter or soin the microwave are also used, but must be adjusted to be compatiblewith the bulk temperature.

Sensible heat flux The flux of heat from the Earth’s surface to the atmosphere that is notassociated with phase changes of water; a component of the surfaceenergy budget.

Significant wave height The average height of the highest one-third of the wave heights (troughto peak) from sea and swell occurring in a particular time period.

Soil moisture Water stored in or at the land surface and available for evapotranspiration.

Southern Annular Mode (SAM)The fluctuation of a pattern like the Northern Annular Mode, but in theSouthern Hemisphere.

SRES scenarios See Emissions scenario.

Storm surge The temporary increase, at a particular locality, in the height of the seadue to extreme meteorological conditions (low atmospheric pressureand/or strong winds). The storm surge is defined as being the excessabove the level expected from the tidal variation alone at that time andplace.

Storm tracks Originally, a term referring to the tracks of individual cyclonic weathersystems, but now often generalized to refer to the regions where the

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main tracks of extratropical disturbances occur as sequences of low(cyclonic) and high (anticyclonic) pressure systems.

StreamflowWater flow within a river channel, for example, expressed in m3 s-1. Asynonym for river discharge.

SubsidiarityThe principle that decisions of government (other things being equal) arebest made and implemented, if possible, at the lowest most decentralizedlevel closest to the citizen. Subsidiarity is designed to strengthenaccountability and reduce the dangers of making decisions in placesremote from their point of application. The principle does not necessarilylimit or constrain the action of higher orders of government, it merelycounsels against the unnecessary assumption of responsibilities at ahigher level.

Surface temperature See Global surface temperature, Land surface air temperature, and Seasurface temperature.

Sustainable development Development that meets the needs of the present without compromisingthe ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

Transpiration The evaporation of water vapor from the surfaces of leaves throughstomata.

TransformationThe altering of fundamental attributes of a system (including valuesystems; regulatory, legislative, or bureaucratic regimes; financialinstitutions; and technological or biological systems).

Tropical cyclone The general term for a strong, cyclonic-scale disturbance that originatesover tropical oceans. Distinguished from weaker systems (often namedtropical disturbances or depressions) by exceeding a threshold windspeed. A tropical storm is a tropical cyclone with one-minute averagesurface winds between 18 and 32 m s-1. Beyond 32 m s-1, a tropicalcyclone is called a hurricane, typhoon, or cyclone, depending ongeographic location.

Uncertainty An expression of the degree to which a value or relationship isunknown. Uncertainty can result from lack of information or fromdisagreement about what is known or even knowable. Uncertainty mayoriginate from many sources, such as quantifiable errors in the data,ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertain projectionsof human behavior. Uncertainty can therefore be represented byquantitative measures, for example, a range of values calculated byvarious models, or by qualitative statements, for example, reflecting thejudgment of a team of experts. See also Likelihood and Confidence.

Urban heat island The relative warmth of a city compared with surrounding rural areas,associated with changes in runoff, the concrete jungle effects on heatretention, changes in surface albedo, changes in pollution and aerosols,and so on.

VulnerabilityThe propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected.

Warm days/warm nights Days where maximum temperature, or nights where minimumtemperature, exceeds the 90th percentile, where the respectivetemperature distributions are generally defined with respect to the1961-1990 reference period.

Warm spellA period of abnormally warm weather. Heat waves and warm spellshave various and in some cases overlapping definitions. See also Heatwave.

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AcronymsIIIANNEX

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AAO Antarctic OscillationADAPT Assessment & Design for Adaptation to Climate

Change: A Prototype ToolAMO Atlantic Multi-decadal OscillationAO Arctic OscillationAR5 Fifth Assessment ReportCAPE Convective Available Potential EnergyCAT catastrophic riskCBA cost-benefit analysis or community-based adaptationCBD Convention on Biological DiversityCBDR common but differentiated responsibilities and

respective capabilitiesCBO community-based organizationCCA climate change adaptationCCRIF Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance FacilityCCSP Climate Change Science Program (US)CDD Consecutive Dry DaysCDM Clean Development MechanismCEE Centre for Environment EducationCEI Climate Extremes IndexC-ERA-40 Corrected ERA-40 reanalysisCFR case fatality rateCH4 methaneCMIP3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3CO2 carbon dioxideCOP Conference of the PartiesCPP cyclone preparedness programCRED Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of DisastersCSA Canadian Standards AssociationCSO civil society organizationCSR corporate social responsibilityDDI Disaster Deficit IndexDFID Department for International Development (UK)DJF December-January-FebruaryDRM disaster risk managementDRR disaster risk reductionDRRM disaster risk reduction managementEbA ecosystem-based adaptationEBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and DevelopmentEDI Ethiopia Drought IndexELF Emergency Liquidity FacilityEM-DAT Emergency Events DatabaseENSO El Niño-Southern OscillationERA-40 European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts

40-year reanalysisEVT extreme value theoryEWS early warning systemFAO Food and Agriculture OrganizationFONDEN Fund for Natural DisastersGAR Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk ReductionGCM global climate modelGDP gross domestic product

GEC global environmental changeGEF Global Environment FacilityGFCS Global Framework on Climate ServicesGFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and RecoveryGHG greenhouse gasGIS geographic information systemGLOF glacial lake outburst floodGNCSODR Global Network of Civil Society Organisations for

Disaster ReductionGPS Global Positioning SystemGSDI Global Spatial Data InfrastructureH2O waterHARS Heat Action Response SystemHDI Human Development IndexHEP hydroelectric powerHFA Hyogo Framework for ActionHFC hydrofluorocarbonHWDI Heat Wave Duration IndexHWS Heat Warning SystemIADB Inter-American Development BankIAM integrated assessment modelICSU International Council for ScienceICT information and communication technologyICZM integrated coastal zone managementIDMC Internal Displacement Monitoring CentreIDNDR International Decade for Natural Disaster ReductionIDP internally displaced personIDRL International Disaster Response LawIHL international humanitarian lawIOD Indian Ocean DipoleIPO Inter-decadal Pacific OscillationIRDR Integrated Research on Disaster Risk programISSC International Social Science CouncilITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence ZoneIWRM integrated water resource managementJJA June-July-AugustLA RED Red de Estudios Sociales en Prevención de Desastres en

América LatinaLDC least-developed countryLDCF Least Developed Countries FundLDRM local disaster risk managementLEED Leadership in Energy and Environmental DesignLIDAR Light Detection and RangingMDGs Millennium Development GoalsMFI micro-finance institutionMJO Madden-Julian OscillationMLP multi-level perspectiveMME Multi-Model Ensemble (CMIP3)MOC meridional overturning circulationMPBI Indonesian Society for Disaster ManagementMSLP mean sea level pressureN2O nitrous oxide

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NAM Northern Annular ModeNAO North Atlantic OscillationNAPA National Adaptation Programme of ActionNaTech Natural Hazard Triggering a Technological DisasterNDMO National Disaster Management OfficeNECJOGHA Network of Climate Journalists of the Greater Horn of

AfricaNGO nongovernmental organizationNHC National Hurricane CommitteeNIDM National Disaster Management InstituteNMHS national meteorological and hydrological serviceNTR non-tide residualsNU NunavutNWP Nairobi Work ProgrammeNWT Northwest TerritoriesO3 ozoneOCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of

Humanitarian AffairsODA official development assistanceOECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and

DevelopmentOFDA Office of Foreign Disaster AssistanceOLR outgoing longwave radiationPAR pressure and releasePDF probability density functionPDO Pacific Decadal OscillationPDSI Palmer Drought Severity IndexPESETA Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in

Sectors of the European Union based on boTtom-upAnalysis

PFC perfluorocarbonPICs Pacific Island Countries and TerritoriesPNA Pacific North American patternPOPs persistent organic pollutantsPPEA Precipitation Potential Evaporation AnomalyPPP public-private partnershipPr precipitationPSNP Productive Safety Net ProgrammePTSD post-traumatic stress disorderPVI Prevalent Vulnerability IndexRAC Regional Adaptation CollaborativeRANET RAdio and InterNETRCM regional climate modelREDD reduced carbon emissions from deforestation and forest

degradationREDD+ reduced carbon emissions from deforestation and forest

degradation, maintaining/enhancing carbon stocks, andpromoting sustainable forest management

RMI Republic of the Marshall IslandsSAM Southern Annular ModeSAMS South American Monsoon SystemSCCF Special Climate Change Fund

SDLE Prepare, Stay and Defend, or Leave EarlySDMP School Disaster Management PlansSECO Swiss State Secretariat for Economic AffairsSF6 sulfur hexafluorideSHELDUS Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the

United StatesSIDS small island developing statesSIS small island statesSMA soil moisture anomalySMEs small- and medium-sized enterprisesSOI Southern Oscillation IndexSPA Strategic Priority ‘Piloting an Operational Approach to

Adaptation’SPEI Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration IndexSPI Standard Precipitation IndexSRES Special Report on Emissions ScenariosSST sea surface temperatureSWH significant wave heightUN United NationsUNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat DesertificationUNDP United Nations Development ProgrammeUNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

ChangeUNISDR United Nations International Strategy for Disaster

ReductionWDSI Warm Spell Duration IndexWFP World Food ProgrammeWHO World Health OrganizationWMO World Meteorological OrganizationYT Yukon Territory

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Acronyms Annex III

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List of Major IPCC ReportsIVANNEX

570

Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific AssessmentReport of the IPCC Scientific Assessment Working Group1990

Climate Change: The IPCC Impacts AssessmentReport of the IPCC Impacts Assessment Working Group1990

Climate Change: The IPCC Response StrategiesReport of the IPCC Response Strategies Working Group1990

Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Reportto the IPCC Scientific AssessmentReport of the IPCC Scientific Assessment Working Group1992

Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Reportto the IPCC Impacts AssessmentReport of the IPCC Impacts Assessment Working Group1992

Climate Change: The IPCC 1990 and 1992 Assessments –IPCC First Assessment Report Overview and PolicymakerSummaries, and 1992 IPCC Supplement1992

Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Changeand an Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission ScenariosIPCC Special Report1994

Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate ChangeContribution of Working Group Ito the IPCC Second Assessment Report1996

Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations, and Mitigationof Climate Change: Scientific-Technical AnalysesContribution of Working Group IIto the IPCC Second Assessment Report1996

Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions ofClimate ChangeContribution of Working Group IIIto the IPCC Second Assessment Report1996

Climate Change 1995: IPCC Second Assessment Synthesisof Scientific-Technical Information Relevant to InterpretingArticle 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change1996

Technologies, Policies, and Measuresfor Mitigating Climate ChangeIPCC Technical Paper I1996

An Introduction to Simple Climate Modelsused in the IPCC Second Assessment ReportIPCC Technical Paper II1997

Stabilization of Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases:Physical, Biological, and Socio-Economic ImplicationsIPCC Technical Paper III1997

Implications of Proposed CO2 Emissions LimitationsIPCC Technical Paper IV1997

The Regional Impacts of Climate ChangeIPCC Special Report1998

Aviation and the Global AtmosphereIPCC Special Report1999

Methodological and Technological Issues in Technology TransferIPCC Special Report2000

Land Use, Land-Use Change, and ForestryIPCC Special Report2000

Emissions ScenariosIPCC Special Report2000

Climate Change 2001: The Scientific BasisContribution of Working Group Ito the IPCC Third Assessment Report2001

Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and VulnerabilityContribution of Working Group IIto the IPCC Third Assessment Report2001

Climate Change 2001: MitigationContribution of Working Group IIIto the IPCC Third Assessment Report2001

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Climate Change 2001: IPCC Third Assessment Synthesis Report2001

Climate Change and BiodiversityIPCC Technical Paper V2002

Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System:Issues Related to Hydrofluorocarbons and PerfluorocarbonsIPCC Special Report2005

Carbon Dioxide Capture and StorageIPCC Special Report2005

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science BasisContribution of Working Group Ito the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report2007

Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and VulnerabilityContribution of Working Group IIto the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report2007

Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate ChangeContribution of Working Group IIIto the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report2007

Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report2008

Climate Change and WaterIPCC Technical Paper VI2008

Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change MitigationIPCC Special Report2011

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disastersto Advance Climate Change AdaptationIPCC Special Report2012

Enquiries: IPCC Secretariat, c/o World Meteorological Organization, 7 bis, Avenue

de la Paix, Case Postale 2300, CH - 1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland

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List of Major IPCC Reports Annex IV