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IVY TECH IN 2025:
Reaching the Goal
Robert E. Hoke
Independent Consultant
IVY TECH IN 2025:
Reaching the Goal
Robert E. Hoke
Independent Consultant
Page 1
Outline of Presentation
Recap of the Big Goal
Historical Trends on Associate Degree Awarded
Projecting Future Degrees Awarded Based on Past Trends
Internal and External Factors that Will Affect Growth
Next Steps
Questions from the Floor
Page 2
Recap of Big Goal
60% of Adults 25-64 will have earned a degree by 2025.
In 2008, 33.4% of Indiana adults ages 25-64 held at least a two-year degree.
If current trends continue, by 2025 an estimated 44.4% of the 25-64 adult population in Indiana will hold an associate degree or higher.
There will be a gap of 15.6% between projected number of adults with degrees and the goal of 60% of the adult population.
Gap = approximately 514,000 adults in Indiana in 2025 without a degree. (MHEC)
Page 3
Page 4
“By increasing production by 6,454 associate and bachelor’s degrees each year between now and 2025
– an annual increase of 6.3% – Indiana will reach the Big Goal.”
Lumina Foundation “A Stronger Nation Through Higher Education”
How many additional Ivy Tech associate degrees will be needed to reach the state goal?
75% of those 6,454 annual additional degrees need to be associate degrees. (State of Indiana)
Assumption that Ivy Tech will award all of those 4,840 additional associate degrees.
62,926 additional degrees beyond current projections between now and 2025.
Page 5
HISTORICAL TRENDS RELATED TO IVY TECH ASSOCIATE DEGREES
Page 6
Number of Ivy Tech Associate Degrees Grew by 322% between 1991/92 and 2010/11
Page 7
Associate Degrees Awarded by Ivy Tech by Year
Page 8
Number of Associate Degrees Award by Year
Page 9
Year to Year Percentage Growth Rate in Associate Degrees
Page 10
Which Historical Trend is Best Predictor of Future Degrees?
Annual Growth Rate
91/92 to 10/11: 6.46% (19 years)
96/97 to 10/11: 7.50% (15 years)
01/02 to 10/11: 10.59% (10 years)
06/07 to 10/11: 10.34% (5 years)
09/10 to 10/11: 20.29% (1 year)
Page 11
Projection of Growth Based on Historical Trends
Page 12
Projection of Growth Based on Annual Growth Since 91-92
Page 13
6.46% Annual Growth Rate
Projection of Growth Based on Annual Growth Since 96-97
Page 14
7.50% Annual Growth Rate
Projection of Growth Based on Annual Growth Since 01-02
Page 15
10.59% Annual Growth Rate
Projection of Growth Based on Annual Growth Since 06-07
Page 16
10.34% Annual Growth Rate
Projection of Growth Based on Annual Growth Since 09-10
Page 17
Projection of Growth Based on Historical Trends
Page 18
Calculating the Gap
Annual Growth
Rate
Number of Associate Degrees
Produced 2008-2025
Degrees Produced with 00-08 Annual State Growth
of 3.90 %
Projected Need for
Additional Degrees
Number of
Degrees Needed to Meet
GoalSurplus or
GAP
91-92 10-11 6.46% 212,452 178,721 62,926 241,647 -29,195
96-97 10-11 7.50% 228,471 178,721 62,926 241,647 -13,176
01-02 10-11 10.59% 285,685 178,721 62,926 241,647 44,038
06-07 10-11 10.34% 280,457 178,721 62,926 241,647 38,810
09-10 10-11 20.29% 608,488 178,721 62,926 241,647 366,841
Page 19
Implications for Goal Setting and Strategies
Historic year-to-year growth has not been straight-line linear, e.g. two years of high growth followed by modest growth. Benchmarking intermediate goals will be important to deal with potential fluctuation in growth rates.
Circumstances and strategies that lead to tremendous recent growth may not be suitable for replication on an annual basis. The plan to reach the goal needs to include short-term strategies that provide almost immediate gains in degree attainment along with long-term strategies that will provide lasting momentum.
External forces such as migration, changes in social security and other retirement plans, and government policies may cause changes in the number of degrees required to reach 60% of the population. Ivy Tech needs to consider in advance how to address external pressure to increase internal targets and benchmarks.
Page 20
EXTERNAL FACTORS TO CONSIDER
Page 21Photo Credit: United Way of Central Indiana and Trinity Wesleyan Child Care Ministry
Adult Population With Some College (Lumina)
Page 22
Projection of High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity
Page 23
Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity, 1992 to 2022.
Percentage of Population with at least 2-Year Degree (2008)
Page 24Source: Midwestern Higher Education Compact
Increased Diversity in the Last Decade in Children
Page 25
Change in Child Population Under 18 by Race and Ethnicity, 2000-2010
Greater Diversity Among Children than Adults
Page 26
Share of Indiana Population by Age Group, Race, and Ethnicity 2010
What’s Next?
What projected growth rate is the “right fit” for Ivy Tech?
What additional information is needed in order to make a logical projection for future growth?
What are the internal and external constraints that will affect Ivy Tech’s ability to grow at that rate?
Unpack the needed additional degrees by region and campus. What are the local conditions that need to be taken into account when developing goals for each region?
What strategies should be engaged?
What impact will other education institutions who offer associate degrees have on Ivy Tech’s ability to reach its goal?
Is Ivy Tech producing enough degrees in “high-growth” fields to meet the state’s current and future demands?
Page 27
Potential Strategies and Benchmarks Categories
Enrollment
How can Ivy Tech best increase enrollment that will lead to an increased number of degrees awarded?
Persistence
What are some key strategies to increasing the number of students who stay on course to completing their degree?
Certificate Attainment
How can Ivy Tech develop a strategy around certificate attainment that leads to more degrees awarded?
Page 28
QUESTIONSQUESTIONS
Page 29