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JAEBONG SON &JOHN GASTREICH
The Second Oldest ProfessionCh 1
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Predictable Future?
Determinism
History follows a certain pattern.
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Future Imperfection
SituationBias
Chaos
Complexity
Economy
Stock Market
Weather
Obscured by present conditions and trends
When Chaos RainsCh 2
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Basic Assumption in Forecasting Weather
Weather patterns regularly repeat themselves.
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The Problems of Prediction
Nonlinear
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The Problems of Prediction - Nonlinearity
Nonlinear relationships cause variables to increase or decrease at more or less exponential rates.
Cost the customer
$60
Cost the customer
$1,250
Interest of 12% on a constant basis
Interest of 12 %on a compound basis
$100 for thirty years
Paid 10% of interest by mistake
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The Problems of Prediction
Chaos
Nonlinear
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The Problems of Prediction - Chaos
The simulated temperature patterns in the figure never repeat themselves.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223242526272829300
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Hours After Forecast
Actual TemperatureForecasted Temperature
B = 0.4 – 4A2
where A stands for the current temperature and B stands for the temperature one hour into the future.
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The Problems of Prediction – Butterfly Effect
Butterfly
Effect
Chaos
Nonlinear Edward Lorenz
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The Value of Weather Forecasting Is the $4 billion spent each year worldwide
on weather forecasting worth the investment without taking into account the problems mentioned above?
Why did God create economist?In order to make weather forecasters look good.
The Dismal ScientistsCh 3
Economists have forecast nine of the last five recessions.
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Theory of General Equilibrium
Inherently stable
Dampen external shock
Restores itself to equilibrium
The economy is predictable.
The Economy as a Complex System
No Natural Laws
Complex systems have no natural laws governing their behavior at either their micro-level (individual humans) or their macro-level (the economy).
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Steven N. Durlauf
The Economy as a Complex System
No Natural Laws
Cannot be
Dissected
Complex systems cannot be dissected into their components, because the systems arise from the numerous interactions among the components.
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The Economy as a Complex System
No Natural Laws
Cannot be
Dissected
Positive &Negative Feedback
Loops
Complex systems are so highly interconnected with numerous positive and negative feedback loops that they often have counterintuitive cause-and-effect results.
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The Economy as a Complex System
No Natural Laws
Cannot be
Dissected
Positive &Negative Feedback
Loops
Self-Generated Turmoil
Complex systems exhibit periods of order and predictability, punctuated by unexpected moments of self-generated turmoil.
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The Economy as a Complex System
No Natural Laws
Cannot be
Dissected
Positive &Negative Feedback
Loops
Self-Generated Turmoil
No Fixed Cycle
Complex systems have no fixed cycles. = Histories do not repeat themselves.
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The Economy as a Complex Adaptive System
No Natural Laws
Cannot be
Dissected
Positive &Negative Feedback
Loops
Self-Generated Turmoil
Adaptionand
Evolution
No Fixed Cycle
Complex adaptive systems adapt to their environments and evolve.
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The Economy as a Nonlinear Complex Adaptive System
No Natural Laws
Nonlinear
Cannot be
Dissected
Positive &Negative Feedback
Loops
Self-Generated Turmoil
Adaptionand
Evolution
No Fixed Cycle
The existence of these nonlinear relationships does not conform to the general principles of the theory of General Equilibrium.
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The Economy as a Nonlinear Complex Adaptive System with Erroneous Data
No Natural Laws
Nonlinear
Cannot be
Dissected
Erroneous Data
Positive &Negative Feedback
Loops
Self-Generated Turmoil
Adaptionand
Evolution
No Fixed Cycle
Economic data are scant and erroneous.•Questionable government survey data, false information from respondent, revised historical statistics.
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Human as Irrational Actors
No Natural Laws
Nonlinear
Cannot be
Dissected
Erroneous Data
Positive &Negative Feedback
Loops
Irrational
HumanSelf-
Generated Turmoil
Adaptionand
Evolution
No Fixed Cycle
Robert Heilbroner “At the root of the economic matter lies man, but it is not man the ‘economic’ being, but man the psychological and social being, whom we understand only imperfectly.”
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Recommendations from the Author To remake economics into a much more
scientific field, economists should: Cast off deterministic economic theories and
perspectives. Start to study the economy as a complex
system that is far more dynamic than the idea about the economy contained in today’s textbooks.
Look more to biological science than to physics for explanations of how the economy works, since the economy is made up of biological units.
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Recommendations from the Author cont’d Economics must use the scientific method,
which requires developing theories based on real-world observation and then testing them through ever more observation.
The Market GurusCh 4
The stock market is part of the economy and thus a complex system.
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Speed
No Natural Laws
Nonlinear
Cannot be
DissectedMessine
ss of Data
Positive &Negative Feedback
Loops
Irrational
HumanSelf-
Generated Turmoil
Adaptionand
Evolution
No Fixed Cycle
Speed makes the stock market much more dynamic and complex than the economy
Speed
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Irrational Herd Mentality & Mass Psychology
No Natural Laws
Nonlinear
Cannot be
DissectedMessine
ss of Data
Positive &Negative Feedback
Loops
Irrational
HumanSelf-
Generated Turmoil
Adaptionand
Evolution
No Fixed Cycle
The stock market is clearly driven by irrational herd mentality and mass psychology: A psychological soup of fear, greed, hope, superstition, and a host of other emotions and motives.
Speed
Irrational Herd
Mentality & mass
Psychology
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The Random Walk Theory
The random walk theory states that stock market prices evolve according to a random walk and thus the prices of the stock market cannot be predicted.
Technical Analysis(history of prices)
Fundamental Analysis
(future earnings, a discount rate)
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EMH and Irrationality of the Stock Market
The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) (1960s by Fama) The stock market knows everything that is
knowable about future corporate earnings and thus prices all stocks at their true values.
However, the market also responds to news events in a strange way. The crash of the U.S. stock market in 1987The irrational dimension of the stock
market means that the EMH is at least partially flawed.
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Lessons Learned
The only certain things in life are death and taxes.
Faulty assumptions must lead to wrong research conclusions.
A small mistake could lead to major errors. Psychological bias affects predictions and
research results. Increased complexity degrades forecasting
accuracy. If possible, divide a problem into small
pieces.
Checking the “Unchecked Population”Ch 5
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Gloom & Doom
The Ice Age Cometh The End: The Imminent Ice Age and How We Can Stop It! (1988)
Ice ages are predictable Spread rock dust over earth’s surface
Global Famine Famine – 1975! (1967)
“Starvation will become widespread famine” But, undernourished people declined from 942M to 786M (1970 – 1990)
Societal Collapse Exponential pop. growth outstrip natural resources
Easter Island
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Population Momentum & Predictability
Total population is predictable for decades (U.S.)
Demographers still miss the turning points
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World Population
Forecasts accurate for decades
Remained flat until 200 years ago
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County Populations
Accuracy increases with size
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Life Expectancy
Death is predictable (U.S.)
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Death Rate (U.S.)
Death rate easy to predict; little change
Forecasters miss turning points
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HIV Predictions Overstated
Public Health Service – 85 experts
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Unborn Difficult to Forecast
20-year forecasts are accurate for exist population
Demographers miss turning points
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Contraceptives
Strong predictor of fertility
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Developing Countries
Exponential growth only in developing countries
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Immigration (U.S.)
Bureau of Census underestimates numbers
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Chapter 5 Conclusions
Nature abhors exponential growth & curbs it Question: When & how?
8 billion? 10 billion? More?
Future depends on uncertain forces Global cooperation Technology
Science Fact and FictionCh 6
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Mind-Boggling Leaps in Technology Older generations have witnessed
Television Radar The laser Atomic energy Manned space travel
Younger generations have witnessed Information technology Genetic engineering
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Technology Forecasting
Evolution of Technology Forecasting
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Flow of Technology Forecasting
From organizations to media
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World’s Largest Technology Forecaster
Japanese government’s technology forecasting
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Technology Forecasting Techniques Brainstorming techniques
Delphi method Nominal group process
Trend extrapolation techniques S-curve Trend analysis Correlation analysis
Analytic techniques Cross-impact analysis Analytic hierarchy process
Relevance trees Systems dynamics Scenario development
Real-world situation analysis Case study method Lead-user analysis
“Useless in predicting the most significant
events in the evolution of technology”
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S-Curve
Pro: Useful to forecast established technologies Con: Hard to predict size and shape of S-curve
Market size Development speed
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Technological Darwinism
Uncertainty in technological evolution
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Moore’s Law
Increasing density of microprocessors
The FuturistsCh 7
Faith Popcorn John Naisbitt
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Infirm Foundations of Social Science Society – a complex system
Popular attitudes & beliefs Economic conditions Technological advances Population trends Political events Wars Weather
All Unpredictable
Society is Unpredictable
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The Newtonian Socialists
Believed If Newton can predict paths of planets, we
can predict social evolution Social progress in inevitable as Newton’s
laws of motion
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Futurology
Coates (author of Future Work) There is no single future We can see those alternative futures We can influence the future We have a more obligation to influence the
future However, most futurists
Argue strongly for a single vision Do not identify alternatives Say, “There will be.”
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Trend Spotters
Commercial trend spotters Search for emerging social trends Sell their “discoveries” to business & gov’t
Firms Gallup Yankelovich
Gurus John Naisbitt Faith Popcorn
Corporate ChaosCh 8
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Strategies of Management
Boston Consulting Group’s growth-share matrix
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The Unpredictable Future
Realm of future possibilities
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Opportunity
Realm of current possibilities
The Certainty of Living in an Uncertain World
Ch 9
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Thinking Critically
People are vulnerable to false prophets We fear uncertainty Seek counsel of those who “know” the
future Innately gullible
Believe rather than question Attribute meaning to chance events
Driven by herd instinct Easily swayed by voices of authority
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Self-Defense Against Futurists
React with informed skepticism Ask 5 questions
Based on hard science? How sound are the methods? Forecaster has credible credentials? Forecaster has a proven track record? Is my belief influenced by personal beliefs
& wishful thinking?
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Dr Browning Predicts Earthquake
Prediction New Madrid, Missouri Near epicenter of 1811 most severe
earthquake On Dec 3, 1990 (plus/minus 48 hours)
Mass Panic Reaction Schools & factories closed Shopping centers taped up windows Residents left town & called Red Cross Rumors that town reservoir dropped 15 feet Media: New York Times to Poland
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Questions
