Jailan B. Simon Pusat Iklim Nasional Jabatan Meteorologi ...mpoc.org.my/upload/El_Nino_2014_MPOC_Jailan_Simon.pdfJabatan Meteorologi Malaysia Jailan B. Simon Powerpoint Templates Page

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Pusat Iklim Nasional Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia

Jailan B. Simon

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• Warm throughout the year Malaysia (lowlands) : 24.4 C – 28.5 C Cameron Highlands: 16.9 C – 18.5 C

• Abundant monthly rainfall amount Malaysia : 24mm (January, Kangar) 750mm (November, K. Terengganu)

• Uniform Atmospheric Pressure throughout the year Malaysia (lowlands): 1000 hPa – 1020hPa

• Located near Equator

Af = Tropical Rainforest Climate



• Highest Temperature Chuping (lowlands): 40.1 C (9 April 1998) C. Highlands: 27.9 C (27 May 1998) • Lowest Temperature Chuping (lowlands) : 15.7 C (3 February 2014) C. Highlands: 2.1 C (6 January 1937)

• Wettest Place Menunuk (Sabah) : 5720 mm/year (Bukit Larut : 4312 mm/year)

• Driest Place

Kuala Tomani (Sabah) : 1318 mm/year (Kuala Pilah : 1593 mm/year)

• Haviest rain in a day

Kota Bharu : 608.1 mm (6 January 1967)

Some records



Northeast Monsoon -November to March -Prevailing winds from northeast -Average wind speed 10-30 knots -Normally wetter season (4-5 cold surges which can cause floods)

Intermonsoon -March to May & September to October -Light & variable winds -Thunderstorms in late afternoon & early night (flash flood)

Southwest Monsoon -May to September -Prevailing winds from southwest -Wind speed < 15 knots -Relatively drier season (haze)



APRIL MAY JUNE

JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER

JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH



• El Niño/ La Niña • Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) • Number of Tropical Storms • Others (Artic Oscillation, Solar Flare,

etc)



• WMO defination: El Ñino when the SST anomally over central & eastern Pacific near

the Equator exceeding (warmer) +0.5 C for 5 consecutive ONI months (Japan: 6 months)

El Ñino monitoring areas

• El Ñino Intensity is based on SST anomaly value: i) Weak - SST anomaly 0.5 - 0.9oC ii) Moderate - SST anomaly1.0 - 1.4oC iii) Strong - SST anomaly >= 1.5oC



The Ocean Nino Index (ONI) is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region.

• El Ñino occur when ONI > 0.5 for 5 consecutive months



La Niña El Niño

Normal

Natural Climate Variability:

El Niño / La Niña



• In Malaysia, impact of El Nino are more significant in Sabah, northern Sarawak and east coast states of the Peninsular.

• The whole country will be affected by strong El Nino such as 1971/72, 1982/83 and 1997/98 episodes.

• Effect El Nino to Malaysia are not immediate (few months later). Normally, stronger effect will be during late Northeast Monsoon season.



Earlier onset but later withdrawal of NE Monsoon - Longer NE Monsoon season



-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

ONI Rainfall

Anomaly (%)

Sandakan (1997/98)

1997/98 Monthly Rainfall Anomaly 1997/98 ONI

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-150.0

-100.0

-50.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

ONI Rainfall

Anomaly (%)

Sandakan (2009/10)




-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

ONI Rainfall

Anomaly (%)

Kota Kinabalu (1997/98)


-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

ONI Rainfall

Anomaly (%)

Kota Kinabalu (2009/10)




-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

ONI Rainfall

Anomaly (%)

Miri (1997/98)


-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

ONI Rainfall

Anomaly (%)

Miri (2009/10)




-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

ONI Rainfall

Anomaly (%)

Kuching (1997/98)


-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

ONI Rainfall

Anomaly (%)

Kuching (2009/10)




-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

ONI Rainfall

Anomaly (%)

Senai (1997/98)


-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

ONI Rainfall

Anomaly (%)

Senai (2009/10)




-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

ONI Rainfall

Anomaly (%)

Melaka (1997/98)


-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

ONI Rainfall

Anomaly (%)

Melaka (2009/10)




-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-200.0

-150.0

-100.0

-50.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

ONI Rainfall

Anomaly (%)

Subang (1997/98)


-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

-150.0

-100.0

-50.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

ONI Rainfall

Anomaly (%)

Subang (2009/10)




-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

ONI Rainfall

Anomaly (%)

Temerloh (1997/98)


-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

ONI Rainfall

Anomaly (%)

Temerloh (2009/10)




-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

ONI Rainfall

Anomaly (%)

Ipoh (1997/98)


-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

ONI Rainfall

Anomaly (%)

Ipoh (2009/10)




-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

ONI Rainfall

Anomaly (%)

Alor Setar (1997/98)


-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

ONI Rainfall

Anomaly (%)

Alor Setar (2009/10)




-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

ONI Rainfall Anomaly

(%)

Kota Bharu (1997/98)


-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

ONI Rainfall Anomaly

(%)

Kota Bharu (2009/10)




-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

ONI Rainfall

Anomaly (%)

Kuantan (1997/98)


-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-300.0

-200.0

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

ONI Rainfall

Anomaly (%)

Kuantan (2009/10)




28.0 29.0 30.0 31.0 32.0 33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0

Tem

pera

ture

(C)

Mean Maximum Temperature (Kota Kinabalu)

Long-term Average 1997/98 2009/10

28.0 29.0 30.0 31.0 32.0 33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0

Tem

pera

ture

(C)

Mean Maximum Temperature (Miri)




28.0

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

Tem

pera

ture

(C)

Mean Maximum Temperature (Alor Setar)


26.0

28.0

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

Tem

pera

ture

(C)

Mean Maximum Temperature (Kuala Krai)




No of Town Affected by Heat Wave By Year Year No. of Town ENSO Index Status 1998 19 2.2 El Nino 2005 12 0.6 El Nino 1983 8 2.2 El Nino 2010 8 1.6 El Nino 1992 5 1.6 El Nino 2002 5 1.3 El Nino 1987 4 1.6 El Nino 1990 4 0.4 Normal 1979 3 0.6 Normal 1980 2 0.5 Normal 1982 2 2.2 El Nino 1985 2 -1 La Nina 1991 2 1.4 El Nino 1997 2 2.4 El Nino 2009 2 1.6 El Nino 1958 1 1.8 El Nino 1963 1 1.4 El Nino 1964 1 1.1 El Nino 1970 1 -1.3 La Nina 1972 1 2.1 El Nino 1976 1 -1.5 La Nina 1995 1 1 El Nino 1996 1 -0.9 La Nina 2001 1 -0.7 La Nina 2003 1 1.1 El Nino 2004 1 0.8 El Nino 2006 1 1 El Nino 2007 1 -1.4 La Nina 2008 1 -1.5 La Nina 2011 1 -1.4 La Nina 2012 1 -0.9 La Nina 2013 1 -0.6 Normal

Five consecutive days maximum temperature at or above 35 C AND exceeding 2 C of the long-term mean maximum temperature, or three consecutive days maximum temperature at or above 37 C.

Heatwave: 89% occur during El Nino year



Niño 1+2 1.6ºC

The latest weekly SST departures are:

Niño 4 0.9ºC Niño 3.4 0.6ºC Niño 3 0.7ºC



Since April 2014, almost every ENSO indicators reflect a progression toward El Niño.

Recent values of the upper-ocean heat anomalies (positive) and thermocline slope index (negative) reflect a progression toward El Niño.

The weakening of the positive temperature anomalies during April represented the effects of the upwelling phase of the Kelvin wave.



Anomalous low-level (850-hPa) westerly winds were observed across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

Predominantly easterly wind anomalies are evident in the upper-level (200-hPa) winds in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.



Most climate forecast model indicate weak to moderate El Nino



The chance of El Niño increases during the remainder of 2014, exceeding 65% by summer (JJA) and peaking near 80% during the late fall/early winter.



Positive IOD when occur at the same time with El Nino may enhance the effect of El Nino to our region.

Negetive IOD when occur at the same time with El Nino may reduce the effect of El Nino.



Neutral IOD is expected until early 2015 (not a factor for the coming El Nino)



Station Name

1953-2013 2014

Consecutive days without

rain Start date Ending date

Consecutive days without

rain Start date Ending date

ALOR SETAR 77 06/12/1979 21/02/1980 63 11/01/2014 14/03/2014 BATU PAHAT 25 09/01/2005 03/02/2005 36 11/01/2014 15/02/2014 BAYAN LEPAS 42 21/12/1996 01/02/1997 40 12/01/2014 20/02/2014 BUTTERWORTH 32 27/01/1987 28/02/1987 35 11/01/2014 14/02/2014 CHUPING 75 06/12/1979 19/02/1980 64 10/01/2014 14/03/2014 KLIA SEPANG 32 25/01/2002 26/02/2002 33 14/01/2014 15/02/2014 KLUANG 39 17/01/1976 25/02/1976 65 10/01/2014 15/03/2014 KUALA KRAI 30 12/02/1990 14/03/1990 59 15/01/2014 14/03/2014 KUALA PILAH 20 09/06/2013 29/06/2013 58 17/01/2014 15/03/2014 KUALA TERENGGANU 32 02/04/1998 04/05/1998 45 29/01/2014 14/03/2014 KUANTAN 42 19/03/1983 30/04/1983 25 15/01/2014 08/02/2014 LUBOK MERBAU 21 22/01/2007 12/02/2007 39 12/01/2014 19/02/2014 MALACCA 31 16/01/1971 16/02/1971 67 07/01/2014 14/03/2014 MERSING 40 17/01/2005 26/02/2005 34 18/01/2014 20/02/2014 MUADZAM SHAH 28 02/02/1998 02/03/1998 30 16/01/2014 14/02/2014 PRAI 48 19/01/1987 08/03/1987 58 16/01/2014 14/03/2014 PULAU LANGKAWI 78 11/12/2004 27/02/2005 63 11/01/2014 14/03/2014 SENAI 26 28/01/2005 23/02/2005 34 09/02/2014 14/03/2014 SITIAWAN 35 22/01/2005 26/02/2005 32 19/01/2014 19/02/2014 SUBANG 21 16/02/1968 08/03/1968 22 21/01/2014 11/02/2014 TEMERLOH 26 03/02/1987 01/03/1987 26 19/01/2014 13/02/2014

“there are other climate variability that we still do not fully understand”

Kuala Krai: 15.7 C Chuping: 16.1



Conclussion El Nino most likely to occur beginning June-August 2014 and

may last until next year. However, the strength (intensity) of the forecasted El Nino is still not known (weak to moderate).

The impact of El Nino may be felt by Malaysia towards the end of the year and 1st quarter of next year. However, the impact depend much on the intensity of the El Nino.

In general, the impact to our country will be less rainfall and warmer temperature especially during strong El Nino episode.

The impact of El Nino will be more prominent in Sabah, northern Sarawak and east coast states of the Peninsular.

El Nino is not the only factor for significant dry spell in Malaysia




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Jailan B. Simon Pusat Iklim Nasional Jabatan Meteorologi ...mpoc.org.my/upload/El_Nino_2014_MPOC_Jailan_Simon.pdfJabatan Meteorologi Malaysia Jailan B. Simon Powerpoint Templates Page