July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar July 2018

Jake CrouchClimate Scientist, Climate Monitoring Branch,

NOAA National Centers for Environmental

Information

Crystal StilesApplied Climatologist, High Plains Regional

Climate Center

Matthew RosencransMeteorologist & Seasonal Forecaster , NOAA

Climate Prediction Center

July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar 2

• June: +0.75°C above20th century average

– 5th warmest Juneon record

– 402nd consecutive month above the 20th century average

• Land: +1.06°C

– 6th warmest June on record

– Coolest since 2014

– Noteworthy regional warmth

• Ocean: +0.62°C

– 6th warmest Juneon record The global temperature record dates to 1880 (139 years)

Land and Ocean Temperature PercentilesJune 2018

July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar 3

Jan-June 2018: +0.77°C above average, 4th warmest on record.

Dep

artu

re (

C)

fro

m 2

0th

cen

tury

ave

rage

Year-to-date Global Temperaturesfor 2018 and the other nine warmest years on record

July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar

Temperature: 71.5°F, +3.0°F, 3rd warmest June on record

Precipitation: 3.08”, +0.15”, near median June

4

• Above-average temperatures in the Southwest, Great Plains, Midwest, and Southeast

o Record minimum temperatures across central U.S.

• Below-average conditions in the Northwest and Northeast

• Above-average precipitation in the Northern Rockies and Plains, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic

o Significant flash flooding in Upper Midwest, Texas Coast, and Mid-Atlantic

• Below-average rain in parts of the West and South

• Large and destructive wildfires burned across the West

Precipitation Percentiles June 2018Period: 1895-2018 (124 years)

Temperature Percentiles June 2018Period: 1895-2018 (124 years)

July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar

Temperature: 49.4°F, +1.9°F, 14th warmest year to date

5

Contiguous U.S. Jan-Jun Temperatures 1895-2018

• Large swings in temperature month to month during 2018 east of the Rockies

• January-June was warmer than average for the West and along the East Coast

• Below-average conditions in the north-central United States

• 25th consecutive year with Jan-Jun temperature above 20th century average

Temperature Percentiles Jan-Jun 2018Period: 1895-2017 (124 years)

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995 2015

Tem

pe

ratu

re D

ep

artu

re f

rom

20

th C

en

tury

Ave

rage

(F)

July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar

31.0% of Contiguous U.S. in Drought ( 4.6 percentage points since late May)

• Improvement: Drought improved in the Northern Plains, Southeast, and High Plains

• Degradation: Drought expanded in the West, South, central Great Lakes, and Northeast

• Outside CONUS: Drought developed in Hawaii and Puerto Rico was abnormally dry

6

July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar

Crop Update• Generally, corn and soybeans are in

good shape

• Cold April delayed planting season

• Warm May & June crops progressed quickly, may reach maturity early

• High minimum temperatures in Nebraska and Kansas may negatively impact corn yields

• Kansas and southeast Colorado winter wheat production negatively impacted by climate conditions

Corn showing signs of high temperature stress

(Photo courtesy Dr. Ignacio Ciampitti, Kansas State University)

7

July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar

Flooding & Severe WeatherMissouri River Flooding

• High mountain/Plains snowpack and heavy spring precipitation resulted in 3rd highest monthly runoff in June in 120 years of record

• Higher-than-average releases from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on all Mainstemprojects is expected through summer/fall

• Minor flooding along the river

Severe Weather in North Dakota, July 8-10th

• Large hail/high winds damaged corn, soybeans, and alfalfa, overturned center pivots near Oakes on the 8th

• EF2 tornado struck RV park in Watford City on the 10th, killing 1 and injuring 28

Destroyed manufactured homes and RVs, Watford City (courtesy NWS Bismarck)

8

July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar

Wildfires in ColoradoSpring Creek Fire

• Location: South-central Colorado, Sangre de Cristo Mountains, southeast of Great Sand Dunes National Park

• Size: 108,045 acres (as of 7/16)

• Contained: 91% (as of 7/16)

• Currently 3rd largest wildfire in Colorado history

416 Fire

• Location: Southwest Colorado, San Juan National Forest, north of Durango

• Size: 54,129 acres (as of 7/16)

• Contained: 50% (as of 7/16)

• Currently 6th largest wildfire in Colorado history

Spring Creek Fire(photo courtesy Colorado Climate Center via @brit_a22 on Twitter)

The monsoon may help drought and fire conditions, but it increases the risk of flash flooding and mudslides

9

July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar

Sea surface temperatures

• Above normal SSTs in most of the equatorial Pacific

• Small area of below normal SSTs remains in the eastern Pacific

• Away from the equator, above normal SSTs across the Pacific and in the Gulf of Mexico

• ENSO neutral conditions are present

ENSO forecast

• ENSO neutral is likely to persist through summer 2018

• The chances of El Niño increase to about70% in winter of 2018-19

10

July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar

Average Temperature Probability

TotalPrecipitation Probability

11

July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar

Average Temperature Probability

TotalPrecipitation Probability

12

July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar 13

July 2018 Monthly Climate Webinar

For More Information

TODAY’S PRESENTATION:

• http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings

NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information: www.ncdc.noaa.gov

• Monthly climate reports (U.S. & Global): www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/

• Dates for upcoming reports: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/monthly-releases

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

U.S. Drought Monitor: http://drought.gov

Climate Portal: www.climate.gov

High Plains Regional Climate Center: https://hprcc.unl.edu/

NOAA Media Contacts:

• Lauren.Gaches@noaa.gov ,301-683-1327, (NOAA Communications/HQ)

14