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James “JJ” Jones Dr. Kellie RaperSE Area Ag Economist Professor
Oklahoma State University
Meat Goat Markets:
Seasonality,Volatility, and
Availability
First things first
Want to thank!Livestock Marketing Information
Center• Prices from San Angelo, TX & New Holland, PA
Southern Region Risk Management Education Center• Grant funds
Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service
This material is based upon work supported by USDA/CSREES under Award Number
2004-49200-03126LMIC
Where are we at
Meat goat production has exploded in the U.S.• Estimated 2.5 million head in 2009
Research has begun.• Mostly on production issues.
Marketing meat goat research presents a challenge.
First, not much price data collected.• Some markets haven’t been reporting long.• Some markets haven’t been around long.
Second, consistency of the data collected.• Some markets report $/cwt, some $/head.• Not all weight groups represented all the time.• No standard grading system.
Talking Points
The three W’s of marketing.• What producers need to know when developing a
marketing plan.Meat goat market seasonality
• Look at the seasonality of the largest U.S. goat markets and compare them to Oklahoma’s largest goat markets.
• Compare that seasonality to the ethnic holiday calendar and see if there is a holiday effect.
Meat goat market volatility.• Look at the week to week volatility of the meat goat
prices.Meat goat market availability
• Using a grant from the Southern Region RME, OSU is trying to determine where meat goats are being sold in Oklahoma.
Meat Goat Marketing
The three W’s of marketing.• What type of goats do you plan to sell?
~ Size, Age, Sex, Market or Replacement
• When do you plan to sell you goats?~ Seasonality of markets~ Ethnic holiday calendar~ Production calendar
• Where to sell your goats?~ Location of closest sale?~ Location of best sale?~ Selling directly off of the farm?W’
s
Meat Goat Seasonality
In the past many producers based marketing strategies on the ethnic holiday calendar below.Holiday Type of Goat 2009 2010 2011
Easter (Western or Eastern) 30 lbs 3/12-
19 4/4 4/24
Start of Ramadan 45 – 120 lbs60 lbs Optimum 8/22 8/11 8/1
Eid ul Fitr Same as Ramadan 9/21 9/10 8/31
Eid ul-Adha 60 – 100 lbsBlemish free 11/27 11/16 11/6
Muharramn 60 – 100 lbs 12/18 12/7 11/26
Dassi Size depends on how many are being served.
No female goats
9/28 10/17But as more price data is collected more detailed seasonal price information can be determined.
Meat Goat Market Seasonality
A seasonality chart shows the difference between the yearly average price and the monthly average price in a index form.
When the monthly index is above 100 that month’s price is generally higher than the average price.
If it is below 100 then it is generally lower.
We can use seasonality charts to determine trends in the markets.
San Angelo, Texas
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec80
90
100
110
120
20-40 Lbs Kid 40-60 Lbs Kid60-80 Lbs Kid > 80 Kid
New Holland, Pennsylvania
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec80
90
100
110
20-40 Lbs Kid 40-60 Lbs Kid 60-80 Lbs Kid
Perkins, Oklahoma
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec80
90
100
110
120
20-40 Lbs Kid 40-60 Lbs Kid60-80 Lbs Kid > 80 Lbs Kid
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec80
90
100
110
12020-40 Lbs Goats
San Angelo, Tx New Holland, PA Perkins, OK
Easter Holiday
San Angelo, TX, New Holland, PA & Perkins, OK
San Angelo, TX, New Holland, PA & Perkins, OK
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec80
90
100
110
120
40-60 Lbs Goats
San Angelo, Tx New Holland, PA Perkins, OK
Muslim Holidays
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec80
90
100
110
120
60-80 Lbs Goats
San Angelo, Tx New Holland, PA Perkins, OK
San Angelo, TX, New Holland, PA & Perkins, OK
Muslim Holidays
Market Volatility
Beside seasonal price patterns the market is subject to unpredictable week to week price volatility.
Markets can be affected by a myriad of happenings:• Good/Bad market news• Good/Bad weather• Unusual large/small number of animals
available for sale.• Certain buyers don’t show up or a new buyer
does show up.
San Angelo Market Volatility
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
$16040-60 Lbs Goat
Weekly Average +1 Standard Deviation-1 Standard Deviation
Week
$/c
wt
San Angelo Market Volatility
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
$16060-80Lbs Goat
Weekly Average +1 Standard Deviation-1 Standard Deviation
Week
$/c
wt
Market Availability
Where to sell has been a problem for many producers.
Not every livestock market sells goats.Not every goat sale is a viable market.Through a grant from the Southern Region
Risk Management Education Center, OSU is conducting a series of surveys to determine meat goat markets in Oklahoma and surrounding states.• Locations• Days of the week and times• Types of goats sold• Average number of buyers• Average number of goats sold
Existing Goat Markets in Oklahoma(Preliminary)
Town (County)
Perry (Noble)
Perkins (Payne)
Collinsville (Tulsa)
Stillwell (Adair)
El Reno (Canadian)
Okmulgee (Okmulgee)
Purcell (McClain)
Wister (LeFlore)
Maud (Pottawatomie)
Caddo (Bryan)
Gainesville, Texas USDA Reported Sales
Summary
There are seasonal price patterns for meat goats.
These are different for the type of goat being sold and region of the country.• Producers need to be aware of these differences.
Challenges will persist until some uniformity in price reporting comes about.
Prices seem to be more volatile in the spring than in the fall of the year.
There is limited knowledge about goat market availability.• Work needs to continue
Other marketing opportunities• Cooperatives, Producer organizations, etc.
Questions
