Jan PretelCzech Hydrometeorological Institute

Vulnerability and adaptation activities in the Czech Republic

3rd EIONET workshop on

„Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation“Copenhagen, 30.6. – 1.7.2009

Vulnerability research - history 1991 - 1992 Initial national project (rough estimates) 1993 - 1996 US Country Study Program

• outcomes used for the National Climate Change Strategy 1999 1999 - 2002 1st MoE project • outcomes used for the National Program to Abate the Climate

Change Impacts in the Czech Republic (2003) 2003 - 2006 several small individual sector oriented

projects (not sufficiently well coordinated)• outcomes used for evaluation of National Program (2005) and

preparation new Climate Change Policy (2009?) 2007 - 2011 2nd MoE project

UPdate of existing estimates of climate change impacts and vulnerabilities in water management, agriculture and forestry sectors and proposals for

ADAPTation options (UPADAPT/CZ)

Coordination: Czech Hydrometeorological Institute

ScientificCooperation: Charles University

Czech Academy of ScienceWater Research InstituteCrop Research Institute

Politicalconsultancy: Ministry of Environment

Ministry of Agriculture

Project orientation Regional scenarios update and refine for 2030, 2050 and 2100 Extreme events variability and frequency analysis Update of impacts on water, agriculture and forestry sectors Procedures to reduce sectoral vulnerabilities

Evaluation of previously proposed adaptation options as in National Program (2003)

New proposals for adaptations in 3 main sectors Recommendations of framework adaptation options for other sectors

(biodiversity, energy, industry, human health, tourism, urban areas) Linkage to new Climate Change Policy (2009?) which includes also

National Framework Adaptation Strategy Research background for the National Adaptation Plan (final 2011?)

Project structureRegional climate scenario update and refine

Impacts on hydrological balance and water resources and adaptation options

Impacts on extreme hydrological events

Impacts on agriculture sector and adaptation options

Impacts on forestry sector and adaptation options

Synthesis of impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation options on the national level

Regional scenario update RCM ALADIN – CLIMATE/CZ

• emission scenario A1B pro období 1961–2050 • horizontal resolution 25 km• validation on measured data 1961–1990

o time resolution 6 hrs.o average daily TT, RR, TMAX, TMINo model corrections

regional scenarios• 2030 - A1B, 2050 & 2100 - A1B, A2, B1

• 12 GCM (ENSAMBLES, PRUDENCE, CECILIA)

DJF MAM JJA SON0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

TT 2030 vs. 1961-90

Q25Q50Q75

Tem

pera

ture

diff

eren

ce (o

C)

DJF MAM JJA SON80%85%90%95%

100%105%110%115%120%

RR 2030 vs. 1961-90

Q25Q50Q75

Prec

ipita

tion

chan

ge (%

)

DJF MAM JJA SON0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

TT 2050 vs. 1961-90

Q25Q50Q75

Tem

pera

ture

diff

eren

ce (o

C)DJF MAM JJA SON

80%85%90%95%

100%105%110%115%120%

RR 2050 vs. 1961-90

Q25Q50Q75

Pre

cip

itat

ion

ch

ang

e (%

)

DJF MAM JJA SON0

0.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.6

TT 2050 vs. 2030 (Q50)

Tem

pera

ture

diff

eren

ce (o

C)

DJF MAM JJA SON-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%

10%

RR 2050 vs. 2030 (Q50)Pr

ecip

itatio

n ch

ange

(%)

TT 2030 vs. 1961–1990

RR 2030 vs. 1961–1990

Vulnerability in WATERmost sensitive sector to climate change in CZ

average flow rates - decrease from spring to autumn reduction /disappearance of water supplies from snow enhanced flow rates and groundwater supplies - shift

from spring to end of winter eutrophication increased evaporation variability and changes in distribution of precipitation significantly higher risks of floods / droughts

Vulnerability in AGRICULTURE lack of water and droughts in the most productive

agricultural areas agricultural pests and diseases thermal stress changes in vegetation period

• shift of vegetation period• longer frost-free period• earlier ripening, earlier harvesting• earlier germination and onset of further phenophases

photosynthesis acceleration

Vulnerability in FORESTRY spruce stands at high risk lower water balance extreme weather events - predisposition stressor fungi, vascular mycosis insects (spruce bark beetles, etc.) increased CO2 (effects on growth conditions and

activity) shift of vegetation level natural changes in species compositions

MAIN AIM OF THE PROJECT = Help to increase the adaptive

capacity on national and local levelsWATER

water retention & revitalization of water systems flexibility & effectiveness of water management systems (extreme,

dangerous, uncertain situations), safe passage of floods water quality

AGRICULTURE cultivated and more resistant varieties of agricultural crops & farm animals new agro technical methods

FORESTRY diversification & mixtures of tree species eliminate risks of insect pests, vascular mycosis and root rot

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

htpp://www.chmi.czhtpp://www.mzp.cz

pretel@chmi.cz